I'd say many of them are recovered by coin roll hunters. No one will knowingly put gold into circulation. If anything silver will end up in circulation, but not key dates.
Any '16-D that has gotten into circulation was inadvertent. It might have fallen out of someone's pocket on the way home from the coin shop and found by someone who just spent it. Perhaps, it fell off a coins collector's desk into spending money. But there are no random '16-D dimes in circulation because they were all removed by about 1959.
The silver we see in circulation today is almost exclusively silver that was pulled out of circulation in '64/ '65 when there were no '16-D's left.
Obviously between after most of these had been removed after WWII to 1965 it was possible for one to get back into circulation but there were millions and millions of coin roll hunters by 1959 and they would not circulate very long.
There "must" be 100,000 of these and no real degradation or attrition in circulation. There is loss from fires and floods and degradation through various misadventure (mostly poor storage) but there will be nearly as many next year and very few new ones graded in the next year. Over time most of the solid G and undamaged specimens will be graded. With 80,000 nice specimens now I'd guess at least 60,000 graded before this number begins to become meaningless due to resubmissions in 25 or 30 years. This is based on the assumption that a lot of these are held by baby boomers and will be graded before changing hands. And it assumes price continues to mostly keep up with inflation.
There are clad rarities in circulation because so few people are looking. To almost every observer there is nothing special about an '82-NMM dime so it will be spent over and over but "everyone" knows to save silver. Even among CRH's the odds of the '82 dime being respent are high.
I'd say many of them are recovered by coin roll hunters. No one will knowingly put gold into circulation. If anything silver will end up in circulation, but not key dates.
Any '16-D that has gotten into circulation was inadvertent. It might have fallen out of someone's pocket on the way home from the coin shop and found by someone who just spent it. Perhaps, it fell off a coins collector's desk into spending money. But there are no random '16-D dimes in circulation because they were all removed by about 1959.
The silver we see in circulation today is almost exclusively silver that was pulled out of circulation in '64/ '65 when there were no '16-D's left.
Obviously between after most of these had been removed after WWII to 1965 it was possible for one to get back into circulation but there were millions and millions of coin roll hunters by 1959 and they would not circulate very long.
There "must" be 100,000 of these and no real degradation or attrition in circulation. There is loss from fires and floods and degradation through various misadventure (mostly poor storage) but there will be nearly as many next year and very few new ones graded in the next year. Over time most of the solid G and undamaged specimens will be graded. With 80,000 nice specimens now I'd guess at least 60,000 graded before this number begins to become meaningless due to resubmissions in 25 or 30 years. This is based on the assumption that a lot of these are held by baby boomers and will be graded before changing hands. And it assumes price continues to mostly keep up with inflation.
There are clad rarities in circulation because so few people are looking. To almost every observer there is nothing special about an '82-NMM dime so it will be spent over and over but "everyone" knows to save silver. Even among CRH's the odds of the '82 dime being respent are high.
There's many coin roll hunters now that relish a "collection dump".
I'd say many of them are recovered by coin roll hunters. No one will knowingly put gold into circulation. If anything silver will end up in circulation, but not key dates.
Any '16-D that has gotten into circulation was inadvertent. It might have fallen out of someone's pocket on the way home from the coin shop and found by someone who just spent it. Perhaps, it fell off a coins collector's desk into spending money. But there are no random '16-D dimes in circulation because they were all removed by about 1959.
The silver we see in circulation today is almost exclusively silver that was pulled out of circulation in '64/ '65 when there were no '16-D's left.
Obviously between after most of these had been removed after WWII to 1965 it was possible for one to get back into circulation but there were millions and millions of coin roll hunters by 1959 and they would not circulate very long.
There "must" be 100,000 of these and no real degradation or attrition in circulation. There is loss from fires and floods and degradation through various misadventure (mostly poor storage) but there will be nearly as many next year and very few new ones graded in the next year. Over time most of the solid G and undamaged specimens will be graded. With 80,000 nice specimens now I'd guess at least 60,000 graded before this number begins to become meaningless due to resubmissions in 25 or 30 years. This is based on the assumption that a lot of these are held by baby boomers and will be graded before changing hands. And it assumes price continues to mostly keep up with inflation.
There are clad rarities in circulation because so few people are looking. To almost every observer there is nothing special about an '82-NMM dime so it will be spent over and over but "everyone" knows to save silver. Even among CRH's the odds of the '82 dime being respent are high.
There's many coin roll hunters now that relish a "collection dump".
Yes. It's not like 25 years ago when nobody was looking and there weren't even many people looking for old coins. Now days there have been millions of folders for circulating coins sold and some of these are being filled. There are more very sophisticated collectors looking at pocket change as well. It's still not like the old days when 3 million collectors were scouring only a few billion coins. Now it's a few hundred thousand collectors watching many billions of coins.
There are still thousands and thousands of coins in circulation that will be slabbed some day. Of course there would be even more but with a nearly 4% attrition rate it is very much a race against time.
I'd say many of them are recovered by coin roll hunters. No one will knowingly put gold into circulation. If anything silver will end up in circulation, but not key dates.
Any '16-D that has gotten into circulation was inadvertent. It might have fallen out of someone's pocket on the way home from the coin shop and found by someone who just spent it. Perhaps, it fell off a coins collector's desk into spending money. But there are no random '16-D dimes in circulation because they were all removed by about 1959.
The silver we see in circulation today is almost exclusively silver that was pulled out of circulation in '64/ '65 when there were no '16-D's left.
Obviously between after most of these had been removed after WWII to 1965 it was possible for one to get back into circulation but there were millions and millions of coin roll hunters by 1959 and they would not circulate very long.
There "must" be 100,000 of these and no real degradation or attrition in circulation. There is loss from fires and floods and degradation through various misadventure (mostly poor storage) but there will be nearly as many next year and very few new ones graded in the next year. Over time most of the solid G and undamaged specimens will be graded. With 80,000 nice specimens now I'd guess at least 60,000 graded before this number begins to become meaningless due to resubmissions in 25 or 30 years. This is based on the assumption that a lot of these are held by baby boomers and will be graded before changing hands. And it assumes price continues to mostly keep up with inflation.
There are clad rarities in circulation because so few people are looking. To almost every observer there is nothing special about an '82-NMM dime so it will be spent over and over but "everyone" knows to save silver. Even among CRH's the odds of the '82 dime being respent are high.
There's many coin roll hunters now that relish a "collection dump".
Yes. It's not like 25 years ago when nobody was looking and there weren't even many people looking for old coins. Now days there have been millions of folders for circulating coins sold and some of these are being filled. There are more very sophisticated collectors looking at pocket change as well. It's still not like the old days when 3 million collectors were scouring only a few billion coins. Now it's a few hundred thousand collectors watching many billions of coins.
There are still thousands and thousands of coins in circulation that will be slabbed some day. Of course there would be even more but with a nearly 4% attrition rate it is very much a race against time.
With the exception of errors, there are more than enough mint and proof sets produced every year and squirreled away that I doubt that much that is in circulation will ever be slabbed.
@cladking said:
Of course there would be even more but with a nearly 4% attrition rate it is very much a race against time.
In addition to the 4% attrition rate there is a better than 98% degradation rate. Most coins tend to be significantly degraded before they are lost or destroyed.
Very few old slabbable coins suffer any significant degradation in most years. Slabbed coins suffer even less.
With the exception of errors, there are more than enough mint and proof sets produced every year and squirreled away that I doubt that much that is in circulation will ever be slabbed.
A lot of what's in circulation that will end up in slabs are significant rarities, mules, types and varieties. Some very high mintage coins were not issued in mint sets and they have all worn out or been lost. Coins like the type "h" '72-D quarter are a case in point. Despite the 100,000 mintage a VF would be condition census. Half of these are already gone and the rest are mostly in deplorable condition and even most of these will be lost forever before a collector identifies it. In 15 years these will probably be gone from circulation and only a few thousand known with only dozens in nice attractive VG or better. There are many such coins known to exist and nobody know what else exists because mintage were so low and none have been identified.
Of course the number slabbed will depend largely on how many coins are found and how much in demand they are. With the very low current demand there are no more than a few hundred such coins that are slabbable. Most of these are things like DDO's and significant varieties. They are rarely found because there are so few mixed in with billions of coins and sought by few individuals. I still check thousands of coins per year but mostly just to keep an eye on them. My odds of finding any of these would be poor even if I looked at many times as many coins.
The "future" is by definition a pretty long time. I would wager that things will change and that there will be more demand for a broader array of coins in circulation. And every year several hundred thousand MS-68's get into circulation and these can be found while still "perfect".
There was a time I believed there were enough mint sets to last almost forever but things change. At the rate the coins are tarnishing it won't be long until they are all gone. There are too many dates and varieties that don't exist in mint sets. Mint sets were never the be all end all of modern collecting even though I once believed it.
I completely understand, but I wonder how many people actually care about those kind of varieties. If the market is only 1,000 collectors and 1,000 examples exist, then it’s kind of a moot point.
In 1998, I had a candid conversation with Mark Goldberg (who at the time was working with his brothers IRA and Larry). He told me, "almost everything worth grading minted pre 1930 has been slabbed at least once."
That was over 20 years ago. For pre 1930 coins worth $1,000 or more, I wouldn't be surprised if at least 90% of them had been sent to the TPGs. Some may not be slabbed because the senders didn't like the results they received.
"Vou invadir o Nordeste, "Seu cabra da peste, "Sou Mangueira......."
@Elcontador said:
That was over 20 years ago. For pre 1930 coins worth $1,000 or more, I wouldn't be surprised if at least 90% of them had been sent to the TPGs. Some may not be slabbed because the senders didn't like the results they received.
@Elcontador said:
That was over 20 years ago. For pre 1930 coins worth $1,000 or more, I wouldn't be surprised if at least 90% of them had been sent to the TPGs. Some may not be slabbed because the senders didn't like the results they received.
Not exactly $1000, but.....
NOT SLABBED
I concur.
My complete set of Liberty head nickels along with Walking Liberties and Barber halves are still in the raw inside Danscos.
Of the $500 and above value coins where grading/certification would make a significant difference in liquidity or value probably 90%+. There are huge populations certified of many classic coins and rarities. Significant collections come out of the woodwork from time to time but they represent a drop in the bucket of what is already certified.
The same can be said of 1916-D dimes. NGC has slabbed around 6,000 and PCGS adding 10,000. I do not believe that 90% of these coins have been destroyed. They are out there raw.
That's thought provoking. Mintage of the 1916-D was 264,000. 10% would be 26,400 survivors. 16,000 known survivors. Given that If one collected coins in the 1950s or 1960s, one dreamed of finding a 1916-D dime in circulation. Most unlikely that 10,000 are yet to be found in circulated Mercury rolls or old coin folders. Maybe more than 90% have actually been destroyed?
At one time PCGS claimed they saw an average of 5 to 10 counterfeits a week.
1907 High Relief Saint - Total NGC/PCGS population = 9,000 Mintage=11,000
1896 Liberty $20 proof - Total NGC/PCGS pop = 77 Mintage =128
1870-CC Seated Lib dollar - Total - 967 Mintage = 12,462
1873-CC Seated Dollar = Total = 131 Mintage = 2300> @DisneyFan said:
The same can be said of 1916-D dimes. NGC has slabbed around 6,000 and PCGS adding 10,000. I do not believe that 90% of these coins have been destroyed. They are out there raw.
That's thought provoking. Mintage of the 1916-D was 264,000. 10% would be 26,400 survivors. 16,000 known survivors. Given that If one collected coins in the 1950s or 1960s, one dreamed of finding a 1916-D dime in circulation. Most unlikely that 10,000 are yet to be found in circulated Mercury rolls or old coin folders. Maybe more than 90% have actually been destroyed?
At one time PCGS claimed they saw an average of 5 to 10 counterfeits a week.
Except I see them raw all the time in collections. SVDB cents also. They typically get slabbed then sold. One dealer friend had a hoard of 24+ raw SVDB cents come in on ONE collection. He sent them all in to be slabbed. All were good, most were XF or better.
This forum is full of slab collectors. But still, most estates I see are mostly or completely raw.
That's thought provoking. Mintage of the 1916-D was 264,000. 10% would be 26,400 survivors. 16,000 known survivors. Given that If one collected coins in the 1950s or 1960s, one dreamed of finding a 1916-D dime in circulation. Most unlikely that 10,000 are yet to be found in circulated Mercury rolls or old coin folders. Maybe more than 90% have actually been destroyed?
I believe it is highly improbable there are more than a very very few '16-D dimes in circ merc rolls. People saved these out and it has always been most unusual to find any circulated rolls of any coin more than a few years old. I've never even seen a roll of clad quarters more than 12 years old!!! It's far less likely you can find a roll of mercs from before 1940 when the '16-D was still widely circulating.
If there are thousands and thousands out there as I maintain they'll all be in folders and albums not to mention hordes of 20 to 200 coins and, perhaps even, a BU roll here or there.
The low attrition rate on these suggests there are quite a few more.
Grade worthy means something different to each collector or investor. Much of what has been graded cost more to grade than the coin is worth. I have yet to send in a coin or anything else for grading and have no intent to do so, as most of what I collect is of insufficient value to pay the very high fees let alone wait for six months.
The same can be said of 1916-D dimes. NGC has slabbed around 6,000 and PCGS adding 10,000. I do not believe that 90% of these coins have been destroyed. They are out there raw.
I believe it is highly improbable there are more than a very very few '16-D dimes in circ merc rolls. People saved these out and it has always been most unusual to find any circulated rolls of any coin more than a few years old. I've never even seen a roll of clad quarters more than 12 years old!!! It's far less likely you can find a roll of mercs from before 1940 when the '16-D was still widely circulating.
If there are thousands and thousands out there as I maintain they'll all be in folders and albums not to mention hordes of 20 to 200 coins and, perhaps even, a BU roll here or there.
The low attrition rate on these suggests there are quite a few more.
For the record, how many do you think 1916-D Mercury dimes have been destroyed?
For the record, how many do you think 1916-D Mercury dimes have been destroyed?
I'd guess more than two thirds have been destroyed and of the survivors 10 or 15% are so severely degraded they might never be graded.
I strongly disagree. Why do they have to be in "circ rolls" to exist? There are tens of thousands of the coins that are raw and still in albums. I'm small-time and I see them all the time in estates. Heck, I've got one here from my grandfather's hoard that I haven't bothered to get graded because I'm not selling it.
Comments
Any '16-D that has gotten into circulation was inadvertent. It might have fallen out of someone's pocket on the way home from the coin shop and found by someone who just spent it. Perhaps, it fell off a coins collector's desk into spending money. But there are no random '16-D dimes in circulation because they were all removed by about 1959.
The silver we see in circulation today is almost exclusively silver that was pulled out of circulation in '64/ '65 when there were no '16-D's left.
Obviously between after most of these had been removed after WWII to 1965 it was possible for one to get back into circulation but there were millions and millions of coin roll hunters by 1959 and they would not circulate very long.
There "must" be 100,000 of these and no real degradation or attrition in circulation. There is loss from fires and floods and degradation through various misadventure (mostly poor storage) but there will be nearly as many next year and very few new ones graded in the next year. Over time most of the solid G and undamaged specimens will be graded. With 80,000 nice specimens now I'd guess at least 60,000 graded before this number begins to become meaningless due to resubmissions in 25 or 30 years. This is based on the assumption that a lot of these are held by baby boomers and will be graded before changing hands. And it assumes price continues to mostly keep up with inflation.
There are clad rarities in circulation because so few people are looking. To almost every observer there is nothing special about an '82-NMM dime so it will be spent over and over but "everyone" knows to save silver. Even among CRH's the odds of the '82 dime being respent are high.
There's many coin roll hunters now that relish a "collection dump".
Yes. It's not like 25 years ago when nobody was looking and there weren't even many people looking for old coins. Now days there have been millions of folders for circulating coins sold and some of these are being filled. There are more very sophisticated collectors looking at pocket change as well. It's still not like the old days when 3 million collectors were scouring only a few billion coins. Now it's a few hundred thousand collectors watching many billions of coins.
There are still thousands and thousands of coins in circulation that will be slabbed some day. Of course there would be even more but with a nearly 4% attrition rate it is very much a race against time.
With the exception of errors, there are more than enough mint and proof sets produced every year and squirreled away that I doubt that much that is in circulation will ever be slabbed.
In addition to the 4% attrition rate there is a better than 98% degradation rate. Most coins tend to be significantly degraded before they are lost or destroyed.
Very few old slabbable coins suffer any significant degradation in most years. Slabbed coins suffer even less.
A lot of what's in circulation that will end up in slabs are significant rarities, mules, types and varieties. Some very high mintage coins were not issued in mint sets and they have all worn out or been lost. Coins like the type "h" '72-D quarter are a case in point. Despite the 100,000 mintage a VF would be condition census. Half of these are already gone and the rest are mostly in deplorable condition and even most of these will be lost forever before a collector identifies it. In 15 years these will probably be gone from circulation and only a few thousand known with only dozens in nice attractive VG or better. There are many such coins known to exist and nobody know what else exists because mintage were so low and none have been identified.
Of course the number slabbed will depend largely on how many coins are found and how much in demand they are. With the very low current demand there are no more than a few hundred such coins that are slabbable. Most of these are things like DDO's and significant varieties. They are rarely found because there are so few mixed in with billions of coins and sought by few individuals. I still check thousands of coins per year but mostly just to keep an eye on them. My odds of finding any of these would be poor even if I looked at many times as many coins.
The "future" is by definition a pretty long time. I would wager that things will change and that there will be more demand for a broader array of coins in circulation. And every year several hundred thousand MS-68's get into circulation and these can be found while still "perfect".
There was a time I believed there were enough mint sets to last almost forever but things change. At the rate the coins are tarnishing it won't be long until they are all gone. There are too many dates and varieties that don't exist in mint sets. Mint sets were never the be all end all of modern collecting even though I once believed it.
I completely understand, but I wonder how many people actually care about those kind of varieties. If the market is only 1,000 collectors and 1,000 examples exist, then it’s kind of a moot point.
In 1998, I had a candid conversation with Mark Goldberg (who at the time was working with his brothers IRA and Larry). He told me, "almost everything worth grading minted pre 1930 has been slabbed at least once."
That was over 20 years ago. For pre 1930 coins worth $1,000 or more, I wouldn't be surprised if at least 90% of them had been sent to the TPGs. Some may not be slabbed because the senders didn't like the results they received.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
Not exactly $1000, but.....
I have 2
NOT SLABBED
My current registry sets:
20th Century Type Set
Virtual DANSCO 7070
Slabbed IHC set - Missing the Anacs Slabbed coins
I concur.
My complete set of Liberty head nickels along with Walking Liberties and Barber halves are still in the raw inside Danscos.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/quarters/PCGS-2020-quarter-quest/album/247091
Of the $500 and above value coins where grading/certification would make a significant difference in liquidity or value probably 90%+. There are huge populations certified of many classic coins and rarities. Significant collections come out of the woodwork from time to time but they represent a drop in the bucket of what is already certified.
That's thought provoking. Mintage of the 1916-D was 264,000. 10% would be 26,400 survivors. 16,000 known survivors. Given that If one collected coins in the 1950s or 1960s, one dreamed of finding a 1916-D dime in circulation. Most unlikely that 10,000 are yet to be found in circulated Mercury rolls or old coin folders. Maybe more than 90% have actually been destroyed?
At one time PCGS claimed they saw an average of 5 to 10 counterfeits a week.
A few random pops vs mintages (round numbers)
1907 High Relief Saint - Total NGC/PCGS population = 9,000 Mintage=11,000
1896 Liberty $20 proof - Total NGC/PCGS pop = 77 Mintage =128
1870-CC Seated Lib dollar - Total - 967 Mintage = 12,462
1873-CC Seated Dollar = Total = 131 Mintage = 2300> @DisneyFan said:
Except I see them raw all the time in collections. SVDB cents also. They typically get slabbed then sold. One dealer friend had a hoard of 24+ raw SVDB cents come in on ONE collection. He sent them all in to be slabbed. All were good, most were XF or better.
This forum is full of slab collectors. But still, most estates I see are mostly or completely raw.
I believe it is highly improbable there are more than a very very few '16-D dimes in circ merc rolls. People saved these out and it has always been most unusual to find any circulated rolls of any coin more than a few years old. I've never even seen a roll of clad quarters more than 12 years old!!! It's far less likely you can find a roll of mercs from before 1940 when the '16-D was still widely circulating.
If there are thousands and thousands out there as I maintain they'll all be in folders and albums not to mention hordes of 20 to 200 coins and, perhaps even, a BU roll here or there.
The low attrition rate on these suggests there are quite a few more.
Grade worthy means something different to each collector or investor. Much of what has been graded cost more to grade than the coin is worth. I have yet to send in a coin or anything else for grading and have no intent to do so, as most of what I collect is of insufficient value to pay the very high fees let alone wait for six months.
Frankly About 95 pct. This based on estate I looked at recently. Nothing but junk or bullion material. Nothing worth slabbing.
For the record, how many do you think 1916-D Mercury dimes have been destroyed?
I'd guess more than two thirds have been destroyed and of the survivors 10 or 15% are so severely degraded they might never be graded.
I strongly disagree. Why do they have to be in "circ rolls" to exist? There are tens of thousands of the coins that are raw and still in albums. I'm small-time and I see them all the time in estates. Heck, I've got one here from my grandfather's hoard that I haven't bothered to get graded because I'm not selling it.