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What percentage of grade-worthy coins have already been graded?
Vasanti
Posts: 448 ✭✭✭✭
I’m talking mainly higher-end stuff, not common, modern stuff. Anyone want to venture a guess on what is still out there?
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Vasanti
Posts: 448 ✭✭✭✭
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40% has been graded. Although that is a difficult question to answer without a more defined idea of what you deem "grade-worthy".
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
8.7%
0.017% if you include "gradeable" coins not with the price of submission.
I know it’s a nonsense question that nobody has the answer to, but it would be interesting to get a sense of it. Assuming that the floor of “worth it” is say, $100, would you think that half of the pre-1964 coinage worth grading has been graded? 1/4?
Not a chance. Using $100 threshold, you're looking at single digit percentages. The vast majority of all $100 coins are still raw.
I have 100 coins that are raw, silver, uncirculated, and pre 1964, for every graded coin I own. Some of us prefer to use albums, books, displays, etc. Grading is expensive and the money can often be better spent on new coins for the collections. Just because it is worth more graded doesn't me it should be.
bob
I think a better question to ask is what percentage of coins with a value of 1k, 5k, 10k etc. have been graded.
There are still a lot of old-time collectors that feel grading companies are just a rip off.
To give a guess-timate on what percentage of coins valued over $250, I would guess less then 10%.
I have many 1950's and 1960's proof sets in their original packaging that won't be certified-at least by me. Pretty coins, but just not worth the slabbing costs. Some of the halves may be, but just not worth the cost and hassle in the long run. Likely if there is a good run up in silver, they will be gone!
How about any better or higher grade gold? And how about this important modifier - not how much EXISTS ungraded, but how much is AVAILABLE (i.e. for sale) ungraded?
I have never seen a single raw gold coin for sale that I have even for a split second considered taking a chance on. Only beat up bullion.
What % of better gold (available for sale) is graded? From my observations, probably 100%. What % of better gold has been to CAC already? Probably also 100%.
Now if anyone wants to point me to some nice raw gold coins to purchase, or even a stash of nice graded gold that hasnt been to CAC yet, I would love to be proven wrong!
My Gold Type Set
Exactly 43.867 % of gradable coins worth slabbing have been graded and encapsulated. Remember, since you just read this on the internet it has to be true.
This is kind of what I was looking for, I just asked the question badly. I suspect any remaining ungraded gold worth grading will be something like Fairmont.
The question cannot be answered beyond gut feel guesses (GFG). The only GFG I would offer is that the graded coins - as stipulated in the OP - are likely in the single digits of what is out there. Cheers, RickO
57.65%.
Surely this 1916 SLQ was the last remaining raw “higher-end” coin out there, so rest assured they are all now safely entombed in plastic.
Edit: It’s remarkable how much disagreement there is on this topic, with responses ranging from under 10% to 100%.
Nothing is as expensive as free money.
I considered this one in the summer but it was just too big of a gamble for me for what would be the most expensive coin I ever purchased.
...and I was just about to look around for the sale price (I recall ~$16k ish) and it looks another is for sale.
A third sold in November (https://www.ebay.com/itm/204118055687?hash=item2f86625b07:g:XTkAAOSw4rpjRhG2).
Current auction: https://www.ebay.com/itm/204152754047?hash=item2f8873cf7f:g:M4IAAOSw1rNjcpKr
EDIT: For accuracy, slap me on the wrist for making assumptions without looking closely and posting too quickly.
That was my thinking as well.
Excluding “treasure” coins that are buried or under water, that may be found someday, I would guess a very high percentage of US collector coins valued over $10k have been certified. Probably over 90% would be my guess. This includes coins that were certified but people cracked out for an album. Of course there are some in old collections or sdb’s that are still in the wild, but compared to the vast quantity that have been sent in at least once, I bet the percentage is very small.
For lower valued coins, using the $100 value suggested, probably FAR lower. Less than 20% is my WAG. How much less? I don’t know.
There’s a local county auction that I used to attend before the pandemic and they on occasion sold raw 19th century gold. The auctioneer did not send coins for certification and did not guarantee their authenticity. My sample size wasn’t large, maybe 10, but ~ 50% straight graded and the others detail graded. My bidding strategy took all this into consideration. I once bought a raw 1854-S $20 on the cheap and it wound up in a PCGS 45 holder.
There is a bit of a problem in your analysis. I see gradable raw coins in collections all the time. Most collections, even gold, that comes through the local B&M are raw. I even saw a $250,000 collection of gold $2-1/2 come through a year or so ago and a collection of 19th century proof gold. BUT, the dealers all got them graded before they sold them. So....there's a lot still out there, but unless you are actively searching for collections to buy, what you see in auctions and retail ends up being graded.
see my comment above. There's a much higher percentage of $10k coins graded, but I don't think it is anywhere near 90%. Grading is only 30-odd years old. There are a lot of old collections and estates still out tere.
One reason people think higher percentages of coins have been slabbed is because, aside from lower grade/common/problem coins, that's most of what they see offered for sale. As you also noted, plenty of collections are bought raw but dealers get them graded before they sell them, with one of the reasons for that the common belief that if a coin's not slabbed it's because there's something wrong with it.
I'll say 342% of worthy classic type coins have been graded, because most of them have been sent in 3 or 4 times on average!
If you consider only "higher-end" coins, say maybe $1000 and up, there are also a fair number that have been submitted and bodybagged. Some of them multiple times.
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't an optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
< 10%
Dave
None. There's a new grading service coming up that will make all other coins essentially without grade.
I’ll agree to disagree, and admittedly I rarely do with you, I’m generally on the same page.
The two major services alone have graded roughly 100m coins. Sure there are lots of duplicates and bulk moderns, but this still leaves room for x millions of graded, valuable $10k+ coins that have passed through a TPG, not including ICG, ANACS, etc.
Compare that to what, maybe a few thousand or so, still “out there “?
I like my odds.
One interesting thing to consider is what MasonG said about older collections not being slabbed, but them becoming slabbed when those collections are sold. I would imagine most of those older, non-slabbed collections are held by people that are in their 60s or older. At some point, those collections will get sold back into the marketplace and will become slabbed.
All my coins are slabbed with the exception of a $10 eagle which is no better than a generic AU and some tubes of modern bullion gold coins that I bought decades ago.
My daughter says, There is no feeling better than watching her father holding a piece of plastic in his hands that contains a coin from the 1870's CC mint, knowing that he can't degrade the coin any further.. no matter how much he tries.
The last several collections I have looked at nothing worth being sent in. If any stuff worth grading owner sold off years ago.
I hope this doesn't sound rude, but your question has no context. Even if some mad genius could give you the exact number to the third decimal place you would still know nothing. Any more than if you knew how many books contained the word "THE", or how many grains of sand exist. I do think I know what you are after but coins don't work that way.
Not only are most coins unique, but even in a given series coins can vary greatly, one year from another. Here is an example. I know of a series of coins where there are two coins that every expert for sixty years has described as "Slightly scarce". Coin A has had almost the same population count for 30 years. Coin B has seen it's population almost double in just the last 10 years; much less 30 years.
The question I wonder is this: What if someone were to heavily promote a coin. Say coin A. They offer 20 times the going rate of todays value for any straight graded coin they can buy. (Think something like the Hunt brother and silver in the 70's.) I would not be surprised if the thing would turn into a non event and you might hardly move the needle population wise, Now make the same offer on coin B and you might have so many coins "Found" you would think they were still making them. Hope you see my point. Happy Thanksgiving.
Actually, I was just following up on what @jmlanzaf said as my experience has been very similar to his. If one never sees these (raw) collections, it wouldn't be a surprise if one were to underestimate how many raw coins currently exist.
No offense taken at all. I know the differences will vary greatly by series. For example, it may be that only 1 out of every 100 pre-1964 Washington quarters that are worth grading have been graded, while it may be that almost all of the worthwhile Seated Liberty dollars have been graded. I thought it would br an interesting discussion, and I’m sure that PCGS and NGC have projections on it because their business is partially dependent on it.
No "common modern stuff" is likely to ever be graded. Only expensive coins get graded and this is a function of demand relative supply. Curiously there is probably a higher percentage of moderns that have been graded than classics since most high end moderns have changed hands to flow to those building registry sets. It's not like anyone anywhere has lots of safety deposit boxes full of $1000 moderns. This is just a belief held by those who believe all moderns are common as dirt and that there are millions of high grade moderns just waiting to crash the price.
Moderns also constitute a tiny tiny part of the "valuable coin" universe so there is simply no need to exclude them. Fewer than one valuable coin in a 1000 are moderns. Most people collect rare old coins, not rare new coins. The demand is for old coins so most valuable coins are old. Of course lots of moderns are graded because there is interest but few wholesale for $250 +. They are also graded because many believe moderns can't be sold for any price unless they are grade and because grading costs are lower. Most graded modern have been graded only since 1998.
This being said I'd guess fewer than 35% of ALL coins, US, modern, and world coins that are currently valuable (>$250) have been graded. World coins are graded much less frequently but valuable coins are much scarcer than classic US coins.
Aah!!! This date 1799 reminds me of my holed Draped Bust Dollar which could perhaps have been an "irregular date" but one will never know I guess.
Anyways my point of this post is that it is as ambiguous as the thread query and good thing there are no dislike buttons or else I would have garnered the most.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/quarters/PCGS-2020-quarter-quest/album/247091
Or say in the case of Morgans - in most coin shows that I have attended, the vast majority on display were in the raw. Now don't forget that aside of NGC and PCGS, there are other players like ANACS, ICG etc. and a host of fly by night TPG operators that came and went with their brief stint of grading.
So one can only speculate.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/quarters/PCGS-2020-quarter-quest/album/247091
I know a collector that has the highest graded mercury dimes he owns over 10 complete sets in Whitman albums with each set better than the others but he has no registry and every coin he owns is raw. He eventually will pass and he has no heirs so I have no idea what will happen with his coins.
How does that answer the OP, it doesn’t and it doesn’t matter. Buy what you like not the slab its in.
My current registry sets:
20th Century Type Set
Virtual DANSCO 7070
Slabbed IHC set - Missing the Anacs Slabbed coins
Agreed, but I think it does matter, at least to me. If PCGS and NGS population numbers are only a fraction of the overall population, then it matters when looking at rarity.
Totally agree.
Most of my collections are in the raw inside Danscos with full sets of Walkers, SLQ, IHC, 2C/3CN, Barber halves, Benjis yada yada.
My kids would have no clue what to do with them, so am playing the slabbing game slowly. Would it be successful/viable is a whole different ball game.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/quarters/PCGS-2020-quarter-quest/album/247091
Rarity is a relative thing. And the populations increase over time. Pop 1s don't always stay pop ones.
That said. Statistically, a high value rarity is not suddenly going to become common (GSA dollars excepted) because whatever the absolute number submitted, there is no reason why the higher value coin would have been submitted in lower numbers than the common coin.
I need only look at b the populstion of SVDB cents to know that there are a lot out there raw. I mean, where did they go? That coin was a known rarity for over a century, tens to be submitted in large numbers because of fakes, yet PCGS has graded about 20 000 and NGC around 12,000. Does anyone really believe that almost 90% of the mintage has been lost?
The same can be said of 1916-D dimes. NGC has slabbed around 6,000 and PCGS adding 10,000. I do not believe that 90% of these coins have been destroyed. They are out there raw.
That’s encouraging to know that. It also means that there are a ton of collectors out there that aren’t collecting coins in slabs.
I believe as you do that this is obviously true. There are some very knowledgeable people who disagree with me.
Keep in mind though that every year there is about a 1% attrition on something like '16-D dimes that are ungraded and nearly as high on graded coins. These coins are not only lost but they can be degraded and the degradation can make them not worth the cost of grading. Surely there are at least 100,000 surviving in G and better with the average grade being a low end F.
People simply don't accidently spend a '16-D dime very often but Gem rolls of moderns can get into circulation in numerous ways. It is often intentionally when new owners don't know what they have.
I said 35% but this might apply more to XF and better bust half dollars than to 20th century "rarities". Some coins elude grading because most owners consider the market value too low and simply aren't going to sell anyway. This might not apply to '16-D dimes but it certainly could to the '41-D overdate or a high grade clad.
Every GSA is worth more than $250 and only a fraction of those are graded... And there are millions.
I'd guess to see a 90%+ graded rate, we're talking $10k+ coins.
Professional Numismatist. "It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
As far as Us Classic Coins over $100 MV think around 60-75%.
Demonstrably untrue. GSA dollars alone prevent that level from being reached.
Compare the mintages to the pops. Admittedly, it is a little challenging for silver or gold that might have been melted.
In the coin club I used to belong to, there were about half a dozen others aside from me who had an 09-S VDB, all were raw. Mine still is, I don't know about the others.
Three letters....EAC.
I'm pretty sure EAC collectors do not like their coins in plastic coffins, just take a look at the next major coin show you happen to attend.
Forgot to mention, I'm in the <40% range.
Your question is unanswerable. No one knows how many coins were melted. The Pittman act of 1918 alone was responsible for the melting of over 270 million silver dollars. Most people believe that they were Morgan silver dollars, most of them were, but there were some earlier (seated and bust) dollars and foreign coins in the mix also.
There are still a lot of older collectors like myself with a lot of raw coins in bank vaults, they may not see the light of day for some time to come.
And, who knows how many were submitted two, three or more times.
And, As stated by Raybo above EAC (Early American Coppers) frown on slabs.
Therefore my guess is less than 1/3.
I'd say many of them are recovered by coin roll hunters. No one will knowingly put gold into circulation. If anything silver will end up in circulation, but not key dates.
@Pedzola, don’t want to question your grading skills as you stated that you’ve never seen a single gold coin you’d take a chance on having graded. Here are some I had graded back “in the day”.
