How often do you think PCGS under-grades a coin by 3-points??
keets
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Actually, the thread title would have been as follows, but the "Discussion Title" bar won't allow it, too long:
How often do you think PCGS under-grades a coin by 3-points?? --- or --- Why do collectors seem to place so much value on the Gold CAC sticker??
I've been "watching" a coin at an auction which is in a PCGS holder with a Gold CAC sticker. At the holder grade the coin is valued around $75. Following the cert verification, the coin has three recorded sales:
2007 DLRC --- $86.
2010 DLRC --- $173.
March 2021 Stack's with the CAC --- $1,320.
It seems clear, to me at least, that maybe the venue influenced the price because of more exposure, but the CAC sticker also causes the price to go up. To be fair, the coin is attractive but is available in the grades which would cause it to be valued at the Stack's March sales price. So I guess my next question would be: Why would collectors be willing to pay for a "maybe 3-point upgrade" vs. buying an already holdered coin in the grade they think this coin is?? The twist is also that I really doubt anyone will ever send it for regrade/reconsideration or crack it out and risk losing the Gold CAC sticker.
If you're counting, that makes three questions!! Help me understand this phenomenon.
Al H.
Comments
Sticker crazy
BHNC #203
Answer - Hardly ever, and in this case, I have no idea whether that happened.
Link to the 2021 sale?
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
There is no understanding. It is the Gold CAC mystique at work. Marketing at its finest!
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
This has confused me as well. I can certainly understand paying more for a nice coin, but sometimes it seems like it goes a little too far.
Collector, occasional seller
Depends on the assigned grade. Some AU55’s in old holders are MS62 to MS63 by today’s standards which is a 4 or 5 point difference but whose counting.
The other way to word the OP's question is:
How often do you think a PCGS coin upgrades by 3-points??
https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-Q8UF5/1946-d-walking-liberty-half-dollar-ms-64-pcgs-cac-gold-label
Very unlikely if we're talking MS grades. No more than 1 in a 1000 surely. Each coin goes through 3 graders.
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Coins with the right look have to be seen by the right collectors bring moon money. That does not answer your question or explain the CAC gold. I suspect folks are tired of reading this but grading is subjective and opinions can and do change. Standards have little to do with subjectivity... it is all about how a coin registers with graders and it is that subjectivity that limits and frames what the ultimate grade will be. Over time, one would think graders would have a greater appreciation for what pops for the series and dates within that series. I am not always convinced that the first time through the grading process produces the best grade representation for the coin. And I can assert this based on the type of coins I submit and how often such coins are submitted,
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Perhaps the new owner thought it has MS65 surfaces yet MS67 eye appeal?
peacockcoins
That’s utterly crazy IMO. The buyer paid a fortune for a $75 coin.
I would never pay that much for that coin in a million years. And it is by no means rare. It’s very, very common. Other thing to consider is its originality. Some buyers look for that and will pay handsomely for it, so maybe that factor was at work? Don’t know but it’s a huge PASS for me.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
Thoughts:
The person is trying to put a set together in the actual grade and wants the best looking coin available and that one is it.
As seen on this board, some people are trying to put together sets of either green bean or sets of gold bean coins. As there are limited gold bean coins, if the bidder was building that type of set, then that could drive price up.
Speculation, buyer could just think that the market will continue to put increased premiums on that type os sticker, so feels it’s a good investment.
My guess is that the price realized had virtually nothing to do with the CAC sticker. But rather, that a sharp collector or dealer was confident that they could get the coin into a 67 holder and make a profit.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I sure hope the coin looks (a lot) better in hand than it does in any of the photos (including at Stack's) posted so far. Otherwise (and maybe even so), I see zero rationale for the latest realized price. (Sorry for all of the parenthetical comments.)
Only situation I can think of when they're off 3 grades is when they net it the first time for some reason and don't the next.
Wow, just wow. I can see maybe bidding it up to a 66+ ($240 guide price) but not beyond. I'm thinking the buyer sees a 67+ in its future, where there is a massive price jump.
Link to a sold 67+: https://pcgs.com/auctionprices/item/1946-d-50c/6628/4556127553560580216
10-4,
My Instagram picturesErik
My registry sets
Not to my knowledge but I've seen 2-points on a few occasions.
Not sure...The only time I see a gold sticker on a saint is if it's a widget.
Who really cares if a 1924 MS62 saint is actually a high MS63? (would green sticker at next higher grade)
Melt it and make a nice necklace or give it to Carr so he can stamp it into something interesting.
Imagine grading several bags (250 ea) of dreck 1924 saints.
I'd have to do it while watching TV or risk falling asleep.
My Saint Set
Three points I think is very rare. On pre 1815 Unc. copper, I have seen grades knocked down a point, sometimes two, due to questionable color planchet problems or the coin had "too much help."
You can see this with AU Bust Dollars as well. Revier's book states that something like 80% of these coins "had help."
Older copper and Bust Dollars are very popular with collectors, and there aren't enough original coins to go around. So for these coin series, if they weren't "helped too much," they are often slabbed. I've seen a number of Bust $s that in terms of surface preservation, would be graded AU 55, but were graded AU 53, a few even AU 50 due to bleaching, a light cleaning, etc.
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I have seen gold CAC holders cause irrational behavior. I was guilty of it once.
I think this is more of a question as to why a buyer would up pay +3 grades than anything to do with PCGS. the gold CAC may only mean that by today’s standards it is a 65.
Very hard to say percentage wise - maybe 1 out of 5,000. Wild guess though. More interesting to consider the circumstances under which it happens vs. a statistical measure. Higher value the coin is the fewer there are and the less likely to occur IMO. Thanks for redirecting my comments to the OP’s original question.
You could have had two determined collectors dead set on winning the coin for whatever reason. Some coins may be a little like a Rorschach test, hard to grade accurately so graders may default to conservative leanings.
All of mine.
Seems to happen to me very often
, as to explaining this behavior I cannot. It is quite impossible to explain irrational behavior in a rational logical way.
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Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
Change in grading standards.
All the time, sometimes even 5! AU50 can easily go to 53 or 55. 40 goes to 45. 30 goes to 35. Etc.
I don't find the coin attractive either.
All the time, sometimes even 5! AU50 can easily go to 53 or 55. 40 goes to 45. 30 goes to 35. Etc.
don't be obtuse, those examples are all one or two points.
I'd say 1 in 5000, or higher. Being off by three grades in pretty rare.
As far as the the Stack's sale goes, that's just a case of people going nuts over Gold stickers. Insanity IMO.
Dave
In general, it's rare for a three point bump.
People value the gold sticker for multiple reasons:
~some think it could upgrade multiple points (can make money)
~some people like conservatively graded coins (this meets my strict standards)
~some follow the crowd (if others are paying a premium maybe I should as well)
~some just like to collect scarce/unusual items (very low supply of gold cac coins relative to all slabbed coins)
The most memorable bump I've seen is the following (not quite 3; more like 2.5 points if you consider the + as 65.5).
I saw this at auction when it was a 65+ but unfortunately did not bid back then.
Keets, since my post (copied below) elicited a "LOL" from you, please let us know why you think the coin brought so much. How often have you seen an MS64 coin with a gold CAC sticker bring 67, rather than 65 or 66 money? And I'm not asking about coins with tiny value spreads between such grades.
"My guess is that the price realized had virtually nothing to do with the CAC sticker. But rather, that a sharp collector or dealer was confident that they could get the coin into a 67 holder and make a profit."
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Perhaps instead of points you should say grade increments.
** sharp collector or dealer**
this is the part that made me laugh.
since the coin sold only 4-5 months ago and is now re-listed at the same venue, I draw one of two conclusions: someone bought the coin sight unseen believing it would upgrade to MS67/MS67+ and subsequently re-listed it with Stack's --- or --- it went unsold, back to the consignor, now re-listed by Stack's for that consignor in the next most favorable auction. my hunch is that it's the latter.
Mark, neither of us is stupid. since the coin has been "shopped around" three and now four times since 2007 I think it is safe to say it's been seen enough to know with reasonable certainty what its true grade ceiling might be. collectors chasing Walkers, and there are lots of them including me, have had their chance to own look at the coin, own it at a reasonable price and decide to either keep it as is or re-submit it for the upgrade. that hasn't been done, twice with no CAC and once with.
my guess is that it's a nice MS65+ for the color with MS66 an outlier. assuming you've seen the coin listings, what is your assessment??
Perhaps instead of points you should say grade increments.
why dance around semantics, we all know what we mean. no use to be cute about it
I get it, but at the same time I don't. That’s a nice looking 46-D. Definitely looks undergraded in a 64 holder. But, $1,200+???
My 46-D is in a PCGS 66+ holder, I paid less than $120.
$1,200 is nuts. I think…
Why is anyone shocked by this?
Do LOTS of measurements (grades), then sort them vs. the 'true' values (using a -/0-+ scale), then create a plot to look at numbers of data points vs -3/-2/-1/0/+1/+2/+3 etc. you will get some sort of distribution curve, one that is almost certainly skewed because sharp-eyed people have been pulling undergraded coins out and getting them upgraded.
Undergraded coins will be represented in the left tail of the curve (i.e., appear in very small numbers).
If such outliers did not exist, I would be very surprised. At the -3 point level, 0.05% would be way too high an estimate, I think.
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CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
With all due respect--The buyer would have to get it into, at least, a 67+ slab for it to be worthwhile. That is where the real price jump occurs. He has already paid 67 money for it and would be lucky to break even, Though a 67+ is not out of the realm of possibility, it is quite a sizeable gamble and a stretch.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
There are Lot of factors here. Coins have been hot. Toners have been hot. CAC is hot. I don't think this is strictly an upgrade issue.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Thanks for your perspective, Keets.
I have no idea whether the most recent underbidder and winning bidder were aware of the coin before it received the sticker. But I have a hard time believing that the coin would bring that much of a premium due to the sticker. If it had brought 65, 66 or even 66+ money, I’d feel differently.
Over the years, I’ve seen numerous posts attributing extradorinaiy prices realized, solely to the
CAC stickers on the holders. In some of those instances, I knew who the (sharp) buyers were and that their “crazy” bids had nothing to do with the stickers. The bids were based on the belief that the coins were under-graded and upon resubmission, would grade high enough to generate a profit. Sometimes they were right and other times, wrong.
Even the most enthusiastic lovers of gold stickers don’t typically pay the type of premium that resulted here. If they did, I doubt you would have started this thread in the first place. 😉
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
After looking at the Stacks-Bowers photos; I have concluded that this is not an upgrade issue, at all.
The coin has amazing color, originality and luster. People will certainly pay up for that.
Throw in a gold sticker and its even more alluring.
Still not saying that I'd ever purchase it but I DO understand the WHY of it, now.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
I don’t know what the coin looks like in hand. But if it was gorgeous enough to bring that much - granted, with a gold sticker - I would think it would have brought much more than it did the first two times, even without a sticker.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Good point. The answer may lie in the fact that SB may have better images than DLRC? Just my opinion. Someone certainly appreciated it this time around.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
These images are superb. Much better than the ones in the OP, in my opinion.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
Where the heck’s the Thumb?
Edit: if I am paying 67 money for a 64, it better have a dang well struck thumb. Just my opinion.
I know of a couple of collectors, that while not wealthy beyond caring, do spend well over value for coins that they either happened to really like, or fits their collection that they have searched for a long time to find. Selling price then becomes between the bidders in an auction, especially when each or several feel this is the only coin for them at the time. Doesn't make great sense, but when bidding the final bid does not have the restrictions most of us face in auctions. You never know about the winner getting his funds back, perhaps he feels he can turn it to the other bidder or bidders that got him to this level, should they wish to sell. Just an opinion.
Jim
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yeah, the strike is weak with this one.
as for picture quality, I would not want to judge a 64 vs 67 based on Stack's photos... and Stack's photos are probably quite representative... it's just the toning contrast makes the grading hard.
Personally I don't like it! @Walkerfan pictures shows me a burn spot next to the I in Liberty. That by itself would kill it for me!
Here's mine in PCGS MS 66:
Sharp strike, smooth surfaces, light gold toning and in an OGH.
$160.00
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/