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Are the days of $100.00 GEM MS65 generic Morgans gone forever?
braddick
Posts: 25,238 ✭✭✭✭✭
Obviously, we have all seen the pricing on silver coins going up, and it doesn't appear to be a ceiling yet. I've always been taught what goes up must come down.
Perhaps that rule doesn't apply to common GEM Morgan dollars? For the longest time, you could purchase them in quantity for about $100. Sometimes a tad more, sometimes for less.
Now I check websites, and I see MS64 at about that price level. What?
Is this simply the way it is now? Do you see Morgans ever adjusting back to $100. levels or are those days now long gone?
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Perhaps it's like the early 80's, when 65's were 800......Those days seem to be gone too.....
I interpret it as an example of buyers being willing to pay it presumably mostly under the expectation of recovering their purchase price at resale, not because they really like it that much as a collectible.
It's really overpriced as a collectible. 1881-S with about 550,000 TPG population or similar ones with over 250,000 are conceptionally no different than the most common pre-1933 gold selling for low premiums over the metal content, just at a lower price point.
There are so many of the most common dates, it's very unlikely most are owned for sets or as type coins. Same for the most common Peace dollars.
My crystal ball is permanently broken...
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Well, let's see...
No - not by any wishful stretch of the imagination.
I think they are way over promoted / overpriced at present. At some point they will fall to pre covid levels or below. They are common as dirt. Be careful or you will get burned.
Not long ago I picked up a PCGS 65 Mexico 2nd Republic silver 20c at an online auction for $153. It has a pop of 2/none graded higher and none graded lower, rare top pop coin. Been on lookout for more in that class but really hard to find. I don’t think I would let it go for less than $2000 and even that is a steal vs US coins of similar Cert pop rarity. I will go with that material vs some absurdly overpriced promoted US Coin.
I think a more sane price on generic Morgan’s would be melt plus: $30 on 63. $50 on 64, $75 on 65. Or is that overly generous?
Got any Mexico Revolution Banco Notes?
Increase in the price of silver, collector base growing due to Covid, stackers branching out into other silver products. If you look at silver in general the market cap is relatively small so it only takes a small transfer of wealth from one asset into silver to have a significant impact on the price. I'm thinking the same might be true for Morgans. Just a little additional interest can push the prices up.
The lines are busy, I'll get back to you with an answer in 20 years.
My Collection of Old Holders
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I'm starting to feel like the price floor for generics is permanently going to a higher level, if for no other reason than the currency inflation of the past year.
There are so many more dollars chasing the same amount of generic coins, how could they not go up? A lot of this money is being given directly to the middle class people who buy these types of coins. And unless the feds start sopping up the excess currency, I believe a lot of things have gone to a new pricing level.
Things may fall a little from here at some point, but I think we've seen the last of the $100 MS65 Morgans.
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This coinage is almost certainly a lot more common than you seem to believe. It's also a coin with a relatively low preference versus other Mexican coins where no one is going to pay anywhere near $2000 for it in today's money. Look at the population reports for other world coins if you have not done so. Older or noticeably older coins with a much higher preference with far higher counts. An example from Mexico is the Carlos & Joanna "late series" 4R (1536-1542) . It's not rare in better grades (up to MS-62), even though individual die varieties are or may be.
Very generous but doesn't mean it's going to change noticeably any time soon which I do not think it will.
The most common ones are equivalent to bullion coins, even in a grade like 65. That's why I compared it to generic pre-1933 US gold. The two differences are first, US collectors (virtually no one else is buying it as a collectible) are used to paying substantial premiums and expect to get most of their money back at resale. Second, the price point is much lower than a 1904 DE or common Saint, so far more can afford it.
550,000 1881-S in the combined NGC and PCGS population data with numerous others and Peace dollars have over 250,000. Possibly almost as many not graded too.
Basically paying $100 for $20 in silver. No reason to believe there are anywhere near 550,000 Morgan set collectors. Same applies to type collectors or random collector buyers for the millions of other graded dates.
It's been my assumption that most of these coins are owned for financial reasons by collector hoarders or financial speculators. I don't see any other demand source for it.
Prices rise and fall.... effects of inflation, PM fluctuations, market cycle (1921/2021 etc.).... Buy wisely, have patience. Cheers, RickO
In nominal dollar terms, probably. In real dollar terms, where you break back prices to reflect inflation, you will see lower numbers again. We are in for a period where prices for most everything are going to increase, and the dollar will be worth less.
Yes.....until silver goes beyond $125/ounce
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
Much of pricing comes down to perceived value.
Most 65s are beautiful large coins minted over 125 years ago. They have aesthetic and intrinsic value.
I just paid $75 for a set of bluetooth earbuds that I will probably toss away in a couple years.
So I would not be surprised to see the pricing hold firm into the foreseeable future.
I enjoyed it while it lasted.
Funny that you started a thread about originality and attractive... and in my view, they just do not mean the same thing. There are two distinct yardsticks which unfortunately do not always reconcile themselves that is easy to explain... but there is a trained eye that appreciates the difference. And the originality camp is likely in the minority mainly because originality may not often be pretty to those that choose not to understand or appreciate that certain coins, especially silver, show aging that some may not find attractive. But to a select group, that is what matters and that may not translate well for expectations that seek a look with a 21st century hindsight that creates an expectation that is not able to be satisfied unless the coin is enhanced to capture all the good that can be highlighted instead of what truly remains as a testament to history and capturing what was and how things survived.
Back to the question... I suspect that we are entering a new wave whereby the dollar buys less... It is not that Morgans are going up, i's just that they are part of the fleet of boats that are rising with the tide of inflation.
Inflation is one of those words that literally no one wants to address or acknowledge... I stand by what I wrote.
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