Incredible prices on Stacks LuLu collection of Top Walkers, blew PCGS Price Guide out of the water!
trueblood
Posts: 609 ✭✭✭✭
And I mean like a geyser
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trueblood
Posts: 609 ✭✭✭✭
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Same thing happened last night during Stacks tokens and medals auction.
My God, people paid dearly for everything. Sometimes as much as 4xs the going rate
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
Great to hear 😊
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Price guides are lagging the market. You want to buy at or under the price guide, you might as well take 6 months off.
Were there any LuLu lemons .......
LOL nice reference
The word is officially out, prices of coins are rising and rising fast, enough said.
Yeah, but why does it seem that it's just the ones that I don't own?
Just kidding, my $ is in paper $, and they're doing OK, too.
The rapid rise in prices may not be a good thing. Many collectors who are not at the top of the economic ladder may now feel that they are priced out of the market and lose interest.
This will be a problem if it moves into what many or most collectors buy; like MS-63 Morgan dollars @ $100 per another thread. I infer it was the root cause behind collectors leaving in the early to mid-=70's when prices rose substantially.
Hopefully it will only be the high end material, that will just go higher and everything else will be unscathed, hopefully
I think it is odd when prices for coins drop some on these boards talk about the death of coins and when coin prices rise the comments are that it is bad for coin collecting.
Good point
We aren't talking about a slow rise here. We are talking about huge price jumps over a very short period of time.
It is not always as clear as the prices realized. I agree, they were strong prices. I was tracking nine of the twenty coins. I was expecting the nice coins to realized a little above $225k - $250k according to price guides. The nine coins realized almost $500k. All nine were certainty overachievers. It appear there were two big bidders, paddle #800 and phone bidder #1002. I do wonder, if one of them had set out there sale, what the results would have been. I still believe the twenty coins would have been strong, but certainly somewhere less without the head to head between the two big bidders.
My 20th Century Gold Major Design Type Set ---started : 11/17/1997 ---- completed : 1/21/2004
Yep, I bought into the “death spiral” hyperbole a couple years ago and started dumping miscellaneous items, like a stack of GSA cc Morgan’s, at $185 ea, shipped.
Boy would I love to have these back now.
But I also believe that there will be mean reversion before too long on some of today’s “hot” items, like cc Morgans, Proof eagles, and 1921 peace dollars. They are not rare or even scarce. They are, however, easily promoted.
I hope it continues. A broad market increase has been sorely need for a decade. It should also drive some nicer material out of the wood work.
This.
When it surges quickly, it can drop just a quickly leaving a lot of carnage behind like 1989.
1989 all over again, but what will be the trigger, and when. last time it was the major buyer (nonbuying event at pittsburg ana) this time who knows. Could it be as early as after the ANA this year in august, or much later down the road.
I was following some early gold and CWTs in the recent auctions. Everything I was following went for very strong money. Both of these areas have seen a step change (increase ) in prices at the major auction houses or well known dealers that use auction styles. I am resigned that this will and should be the case throughout the year. While I am not selling anything now, my buying at auctions will be curtailed and will likely drop significantly this year. I believe demographics (older collector base starting to sell) combined with increasing prices have led to better/fresher material hitting the market which is driving some of the increase in price. Then you combine that with dealers looking to add good inventory and to flip (as material has been tougher to come by) plus a few collectors or new entrants that have done well during the pandemic and you have all the ingredients for a good market throughout this year.
The counter is that many of us are likely going to slow done adding material. If the prices stabilize or recede, perhaps we stay involved. If the prices continue to rise, I see more divestitures coming. So I am very skeptical that the prices will remain here. I am pretty sure that many of us are the underbidders, and as we pull back or stop participating, is there anyone to replace us?
I am talking about $150-$3000 type items so what I would say is the middle market (not low end but not high end).
The only interesting phenomenon I see is that the strong prices seem to come along at the auctions. I have seen some of these exact tokens or similar list for fixed prices and they linger, but once auction comes, they are consistently selling for higher than the fixed prices where they lingered. While I know that is the intent of the auction, I have seen this type of pricing discrepancy much more prevalent over the last 9 months than the previous 2-3 years. What is keeping me going or interested is the few fixed price offerings that I can find at slight deals or fair prices…but even that is becoming much harder and it is almost feeling like work. The draw of sporting events, dinners, vacations, and general spending on social events is becoming stronger.
If this is hobby money for you, spend wisely.
If you care a lot about residual value or appreciation and are thinking you will sell some of this later for retirement, college, etc, I would say be very careful.
I don't know. I can't figure out who the end buyers are. In 1989, it was the investment groups that created demand for what were otherwise fairly mundane coins. In 2021, who is buying the 63 Saints at 2200? MS-64 Morgans at $100?
wholesale on CIRC 1921 Morgans is $32!!! I don't think that coin has had a premium like that since 1989. But who is/are the retail buyer(s)? If we figure that out, we may have a better sense of where it is going.
When artwork goes for moon money nobody really questions it other than dummies like me who think when paint thrown on a huge pallet on the floor is really garbage but the garbage ends up selling to art collectors for millions.
When coins go for seemingly moon money it seems that "true collectors" cannot believe that there are prudent so- collectors who actually want to collect these overpriced metal discs at sky hi prices and continue to collect for the longterm. Its almost as if the so-called true collectors believe they know the true values and think anything paid over their learned research is simply stupid money over paying.
Sometimes one can be too close to the field and not realize what it must look like to the spectators.
I think we are well overdo for a large long spike. There is value in these metal discs whether you trust that or not and 1989 it is not nor should it be. Look at the stock market, look at the housing ,market, look at the art market, look at antique market, look at the crypto currency market and I threw the last one in there but believe there is no value in it other than over exuberance and wishful thinking coupled with a dose of sheeple following the masses. Look at the salaries be paid to doctors, lawyers, money managers and brokers, why shouldn't there be money for coins?
Because widgets are still common. Unless there are more end buyers, there is no fundamental driver.
There's a big difference between art and a poster. The Mona Lisa sells for a billion. A poster of the Mona Lisa under $10. 1881-S Morgans in 65 or less are posters. CIRC 1921 Morgans are creased posters but are up 40% in the last 3 months or so.
It's different this time... until it isn't.
Stunning prices on most, a total of $971,280. Never thought a Walker 50c short set would bring nearly a $1 million. Looks like at least 13 were all time record auction prices for the issue looking at the PCGS Auction Prices here.
https://pcgs.com/auctionprices/category/walking-liberty-half-dollar-1916-1947/733
I liked the BU raw short set I sold a couple of years ago for less than $1000 that looks 80 to 90 percent the same to the average person. That last 10 to 20 percent costs a lot.
Not my ideal area of where to put coin money, but it takes all kinds to make the hobby go round. Have at it if you enjoy it whether it is circulated or slabbed 68+.
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For those not familiar with this set or the prices realized, here is the info.
Link to auction page where set starts at lot 2050:
https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/auctions/3-REPGR/june-2021-auction-session-2-us-coins-part-2-lots-2001-2677?page=2&limit=36
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Prices realized at the 6-11-2021 at Stack's Bowers auction
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1941 Walking Liberty Half Dollar. MS-68+ (PCGS). Sold $50,400
1941-D Walking Liberty Half Dollar. MS-67 (PCGS). CAC. Sold $2,640
1941-S Walking Liberty Half Dollar. MS-67 (PCGS). Sold $33,600
1942 Walking Liberty Half Dollar. MS-68+ (PCGS). CAC. Sold $78,000
1942-D Walking Liberty Half Dollar. MS-68 (PCGS). CAC. Sold $72,000
1942-S Walking Liberty Half Dollar. MS-67+ (PCGS). Sold $60,000
1943 Walking Liberty Half Dollar. MS-68+ (PCGS). CAC. Sold $120,000
1943-D Walking Liberty Half Dollar. MS-68 (PCGS). Sold $36,000
1943-S Walking Liberty Half Dollar. MS-67+ (PCGS). CAC. Sold $66,000
1944 Walking Liberty Half Dollar. MS-68 (PCGS). CAC. Sold $84,000
1944-D Walking Liberty Half Dollar. MS-68 (PCGS). Sold $57,600
1944-S Walking Liberty Half Dollar. MS-67 (PCGS). Sold $40,800
1945 Walking Liberty Half Dollar. MS-68 (PCGS). Sold $66,000
1945-D Walking Liberty Half Dollar. MS-68 (PCGS). Sold $40,800
1945-S Walking Liberty Half Dollar. MS-67+ (PCGS). CAC. Sold $60,000
1946 Walking Liberty Half Dollar. MS-67+ (PCGS). CAC. Sold $26,400
1946-D Walking Liberty Half Dollar. MS-67+ (PCGS). CAC. Sold $31,200
1946-S Walking Liberty Half Dollar. MS-67+ (PCGS). CAC. Sold $38,400
1947 Walking Liberty Half Dollar. MS-67 (PCGS). Sold $2,640
1947-D Walking Liberty Half Dollar. MS-67 (PCGS). CAC. Sold $4,800
"To Be Esteemed Be Useful" - 1792 Birch Cent --- "I personally think we developed language because of our deep need to complain." - Lily Tomlin
Same thing happened in the sports card market. Meteoric prices for a very short time for high end cards. Recently prices have fallen back to pre crazy days. Only time will tell about high end coins.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
It isn't just high end coins. See my earlier posts. It's widgets.
Again we are seeing people just not happy when coins go up, down or stagnant. Let me start by stating I am talking about rare coins (condition census coins, hard to find coins with low populations).
It is almost funny that people are now talking about prices being so strong so fast they must come down. This isnt anything close to the gains seen in crypto currency, sports cards, etc. Keep in mind the price increases for truely rare coins may seem like a sudden jump but any particular coin may only come up for sale once in several years or longer. It is only natural to see price jumps.
We have an economy where inflation is being discussed almost everyday. Hard assets are "in". John Brush mentioned that for the 1st time he is seeing coins disappear. All of this makes perfect sense that truely rare coins are seeing strong price gains. Rather than constantly looking for the negatives maybe its time to enjoy that rare coins are seeing healthy gains---such as the seller of the walker short set just realized.
I expect to see some collectors take advantage of the current price boom and put their coins up for sale now. Sales results should be interesting.
You're ignoring the demand side for the widgets.
Crypto has gone up because of growing demand. Whether that demand is going to last or is just speculative is beside the point. There are new people jumping into the crypto market daily.
Who are the new people buying widgets? I know you're talking about rare coins more than widgets. I wouldn't be concerned if the price increases were only in the rare coin market. When something is pop 25, only a couple new players can push the price. With 500,000 slabbed 1881-S Morgans, it takes a lot of new players to push demand. With tens of millions of 1921 Morgans, it takes a lot of new players to push prices. But that's what is happening.
I'm neither excited nor worried, frankly. I just roll with it. But if you are buying into the rise, it does matter how speculative the buying is. It costs nearly double what it did last year to buy a Proof Silver Eagle. It costs nearly double to buy a 63/64 common date Morgan. You can speculate that 64 Morgans are going to be $200 next year or 5 years from now. But what are the odds?
I only buy coins that I consider to be truely rare. So I'm not ignoring other parts of the market, I'm just not commenting on them (I dont know enough about that part of the market to have an opinion). I find the prices for truly rare coins (this includes condition census coins) to be strong, healthy and I expect them to continue to rise.
Agreed
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Not everything gained. The 1944 68 CAC, the only lot showing a prior auction appearance - and discussed here at the time, went down from $109,250 in 2010 to $84,000. Don't know how the owner did on the rest of the set without knowing their cost. I'm guessing they made up for that 25k loss.
Prices were probably helped by a positive feeling in the market, but were likely to be strong anyway especially if Hansen was involved in the bidding. The top pop registry material can be very disconnected from the rest of the market and may not indicate alot about the majority of prices.
"To Be Esteemed Be Useful" - 1792 Birch Cent --- "I personally think we developed language because of our deep need to complain." - Lily Tomlin
I think we agree. As I said, I don't see the meteoric rise in truly rare coins that is going on with widgets. It is also easy to understand how either a few extra players, or cash flush previous players could push the price of the truly rare coins.
A year or so ago, I bought proof eagles at $35 and almost hated to do it because it was a chore to get over $40 for most of them.
3 months ago, I would buy them at $45 because it was easy to get $55.
Last week, I paid $60 for a bunch at auction, and couldn't believe I had to do it. But I could flip them with a phone call for $72 wholesale. I threw all 20 (3 common dates) on ebay and ended up selling them all to 2 DEALERS for $75 to $80 each. That must mean the retail price is pushing $100 which is more than double 15 to 18 months ago.
Those are the trends that deserve some attention. If you want to step out on a Dahlonega $5 at 40% more than a year ago, that gives me little pause. But when people are paying 40% more for 1921 CIRCULATED Morgans than 3 months ago....it gives me some pause to reflect.
Well said! These prices are paid by fools who don’t understand true rarity. Drop these coins a grade or so and they become common and ordinary inexpensive. Once there is no registry interest they are fairly worthless
I doubt that you have any idea whether the winning bidders understand “true rarity”.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
You really have no idea what you’re talking about. I guarantee that the particular buyer who I know bought a few of them knows all about true rarity. His pocketbook can easily withstand any loss he might incur....if any.
Deep pockets doesn’t mean sensible purchases. Any millionaire can fritter away money needlessly. I can buy a gorgeous Walker in 66 or 67 for under $500 1943 or 1944, not for $60000/80000. That’s a 100x multiple for a minute technical improvement in a 67+ or 68. How is that rational. A 1921S in 65 for big money absolutely!! Pcgs pop 1921 65 17 66 2. Pcgs pop 1943 65 8800 66 2800
Not to mention that if you drop the grade of almost any coin it becomes cheaper and more common.
[Coins with total pops in single digits an obvious exception. ]
So what? So what if a super common 66 is $500….the fact is that near perfect Walking Liberty halves grading 68+ are NOT common. Just because a connoisseur that CAN appreciate the difference pays up to acquire something special doesn’t give you license to insult their actions away. I guarantee you the buyer can tell the difference - in his sleep…and enjoys owning the finest.
Deep pockets doesn’t necessarily mean “fools who don’t understand true rarity”.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
You don't have to care about condition rarity. The fact that others do doesn't make them irrational. The market is what it is. Buck it at your own peril.
“ I do wonder, if one of them had set out there sale, what the results would have been.”
The “Legendary 1958 Franklin” might be instructive on that question.
Everyone’s tastes are different and each of us has an unique opinion on relative valuation. I am neither a collector of the (20) Pc. Walker short set nor the (144) pc. Classic Commemorative Collection. But, I do have an observation- when the cost of a (20) pc. 1941-47 Walker pop top set is approaching the cost of a (144) pc. 1892-1954 pop top Classic Commem. set, I’ll go with the (144) coin set any day of the week! And, of course, a generation ago, the values of these two items were “night and day” as compared to where they are right now. Back then, the relative valuation may have strongly favored the Walkers. I no longer see the value proposition at the roughly $1,000,000.00 price tag on the short set Walkers. I also understand that many serious collectors pay little attention to “relative value” and May collect certain items for many other reasons.
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
That's an interesting perspective. Preference being as subjective as it is, I'm not sure very many people make such comparisons. It is, however, an interesting 2 cents.
Re the Walker records. I cannot tell the difference between a 68 & 68+ or even between a 67 & 68, and I will be first to admit it. I also understand that PCGS price guide is just that, a generalized guide and its based on previous sales etc, so it isn't all that up to date. And I am sure it will now be brought up to date with this sale. But $80k or $60k and so on for a 68 walker etc is serious money, soI hope it pans out for these true collectors.
From TDN: Just because a connoisseur that CAN appreciate the difference pays up to acquire something special doesn’t give you license to insult their actions away. I guarantee you the buyer can tell the difference - in his sleep…and enjoys owning the finest.
This.
I too don't "get it", with $120k for a white 1943P walker, as I much prefer the genuinely scarce earlier dates in AU, but I would hesitate to call anyone a fool that can appreciate, and afford to attain, the best. Sure, this may become next year's 1958 Franklin half story, but I'm guessing the new owner understands that, and probably isn't real concerned.
You criticize my sensible opinion but almost everybody else knocked the hell out of the legendary 1958 $129,000 Franklin buyer. Called him an idiot Hypocrisy?
Why stop at a 66 for $500? Why not be even more sensible and buy a 65 for $100 or less. How can you justify that extra $400 for one grade point?
A) you’re comfy with spending that much
B ) you can appreciate the difference in quality for the price
See what I did there?
But actually I am incorrect 66 can be bought for 200 or so in the most common dates. Even so $500 is 5x multiple not “100”
If everyone followed your collection philosophy, who would stand out? Probably those who paid a little extra for nice coins for the grade…that is until someone called them idiots for doing so. Let’s celebrate homogeneous mediocrity! Woohoo!
I would buy rarity combined with a super high grade. The Franklin guy lost $80,000 on his purchase from Legend Auctions and people are posting on this site that they think the coin isn’t even worth $40,000. They are calling him a fool and I am merely making an observation on smart buying not mediocre buying.
I don’t care how people spend their money. Just my opinion on how I would approach it. Also I would buy amazing coins at 3-5x multiples. Maybe 10 if incredible but never 100+ multiple