The 42-S was a top pop 1 in MS67 for several years. The 44P was a top pop 1 when it sold at auction, as has been discussed. His set had the 41-S in 67 for many years when that grade and pop held steady at (I think) 6 pieces. Some of the plus graded superb gems in his collection are pop 1 issues, so therefore garnered very strong monies. Congratulations to the long term set registry leader in WLH shortset on the auction results.
The 42-S was a top pop 1 in MS67 for several years. The 44P was a top pop 1 when it sold at auction, as has been discussed. His set had the 41-S in 67 for many years when that grade and pop held steady at (I think) 6 pieces. Some of the plus graded superb gems in his collection are pop 1 issues, so therefore garnered very strong monies. Congratulations to the long term set registry leader in WLH shortset on the auction results.
I see your point. Some validity there. If I had huge money, and I do love walkers, I am going for rare coins from the High Desert collection or Gerald Forsyth when available. That’s early date rarity and amazing quality
The 42-S was a top pop 1 in MS67 for several years. The 44P was a top pop 1 when it sold at auction, as has been discussed. His set had the 41-S in 67 for many years when that grade and pop held steady at (I think) 6 pieces. Some of the plus graded superb gems in his collection are pop 1 issues, so therefore garnered very strong monies. Congratulations to the long term set registry leader in WLH shortset on the auction results.
I see your point. Some validity there. If I had huge money, and I do love walkers, I am going for rare coins from the High Desert collection or Gerald Forsyth when available.
Are the extremely high prices paid for these late date short set walkers indicative of substantial sales price increases for the highest graded coins in others series of US coins?
In other words is this a bull market for most if not all of the US market and are the increased prices showing up for coins that are not pop top?
... healthy gains---such as the seller of the walker short set just realized.
Not everything gained. The 1944 68 CAC, the only lot showing a prior auction appearance - and discussed here at the time, went down from $109,250 in 2010 to $84,000. Don't know how the owner did on the rest of the set without knowing their cost. I'm guessing they made up for that 25k loss.
Prices were probably helped by a positive feeling in the market, but were likely to be strong anyway especially if Hansen was involved in the bidding. The top pop registry material can be very disconnected from the rest of the market and may not indicate alot about the majority of prices.
Well said! These prices are paid by fools who don’t understand true rarity.
You really have no idea what you’re talking about. I guarantee that the particular buyer who I know bought a few of them knows all about true rarity. His pocketbook can easily withstand any loss he might incur....if any.
Deep pockets doesn’t mean sensible purchases. Any millionaire can fritter away money needlessly. I can buy a gorgeous Walker in 66 or 67 for under $500 1943 or 1944, not for $60000/80000. That’s a 100x multiple for a minute technical improvement in a 67+ or 68. How is that rational. A 1921S in 65 for big money absolutely!! Pcgs pop 1921 65 17 66 2. Pcgs pop 1943 65 8800 66 2800
Deep pockets doesn’t necessarily mean “fools who don’t understand true rarity”.
Sorry about the fools word, the person is entitled to spend their money as they wish. I just can’t wrap my head around such a price for the $120,000 1943 Walker the most common coin in the series. 67+ price is only $1400. You could buy truly rare gold coins for this money. Just astonishing the price paid. As incredible as the 1958 Franklin and I think almost all collectors will agree on this point.
“As incredible as the 1958 Franklin and I think almost all collectors will agree on this point.”
And, so here you see why ones words and presentation are so vitally important. As ones reasonable message can easily get lost in translation, especially when labeling the actions of these players so negatively.
Taking a look at the heart of the matter, I can easily agree that a 1943 Walker (highest Mintage of entire series as I recall) or a 1958 Franklin or any common date Washington Quarter from the 1940s or 1950s, etc. (short of being truly a near perfect coin) doesn’t have the relative value, vis a vis other scarce or rare US coins, to justify a $120,000-$130,000 price tag in pop top grade.
But, here you need to know your audience. The “players” for pop top Walkers have historically been among the deepest pocket collectors/investors out there. The sports team owners, who have watched their franchise values over the past 10-15 years truly skyrocket in ways that make the entire value for the top 1943 Walker, etc. look like afternoon “tip money” and makes our discussion appear silly in nature. Or CEO’s who earn annually bonuses that could buy up nearly every registry set of every denomination of coins from the 1940s or 1950s or 1960s in just a year or two bonus! Some of these players were born in 1943 or 1958 and have a strong attachment to these dates.
News flash- the future sports team owners and CEO’s in the country were born in 1986 or 1995 or 2000! They are now 21-35 years old. Give them 20-25 years and guess what they will be collecting and buying for “insane” money. Do you think it will be 1943 50C or 1986 50C (or 1986 first year silver eagles for that matter) in finest known (and truly spectacular quality) grade that moves up the most from here?
Real discussion here. A few years back, I graded an exceedingly scarce 1986 Kennedy Half Dollar in PCGS-MS68+. Price Guide currently $4,250. The PCGS “pop” today is 1 in MS67+, 1 in MS68 and 1 in MS68+. In the next 10-20 years, what has a more likely chance to move up 20x from here? My finest known 1986 50C in MS68+ ($4,250 to $85,000) or that 1943 Walker ($120,000 to $2,400,000). Passing on that single 1943 Walker allows me right now to buy up 25-30 similar “modern” super-grade coins (in a mix of denominations) to my 1986 50C. This is where I’ll put my $120,000 over that 1943 50C any day of any week.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
... healthy gains---such as the seller of the walker short set just realized.
Not everything gained. The 1944 68 CAC, the only lot showing a prior auction appearance - and discussed here at the time, went down from $109,250 in 2010 to $84,000. Don't know how the owner did on the rest of the set without knowing their cost. I'm guessing they made up for that 25k loss.
Prices were probably helped by a positive feeling in the market, but were likely to be strong anyway especially if Hansen was involved in the bidding. The top pop registry material can be very disconnected from the rest of the market and may not indicate alot about the majority of prices.
Well said! These prices are paid by fools who don’t understand true rarity.
You really have no idea what you’re talking about. I guarantee that the particular buyer who I know bought a few of them knows all about true rarity. His pocketbook can easily withstand any loss he might incur....if any.
Deep pockets doesn’t mean sensible purchases. Any millionaire can fritter away money needlessly. I can buy a gorgeous Walker in 66 or 67 for under $500 1943 or 1944, not for $60000/80000. That’s a 100x multiple for a minute technical improvement in a 67+ or 68. How is that rational. A 1921S in 65 for big money absolutely!! Pcgs pop 1921 65 17 66 2. Pcgs pop 1943 65 8800 66 2800
You don't have to care about condition rarity. The fact that others do doesn't make them irrational. The market is what it is. Buck it at your own peril.
You criticize my sensible opinion but almost everybody else knocked the hell out of the legendary 1958 $129,000 Franklin buyer. Called him an idiot Hypocrisy?
I never called him an idiot. People may spend their money where they wish.
I like type collecting. I have no interest in paying more for a 1916-D than a 1916-P Merc. I don't see the value. HOWEVER, I would never call someone who did irrational.
Non- collectors think paying a premium for old worn coins is itself irrational. They do not understand your desire to pay $500 for a 66 Walker. But we all choose and all have the right to choose where we spend our money.
You know how you make money in the coin market? You understand other people's desire and the market value. You don't make money by trying to impose your sensibilities on other people. And you definitely don't make money by calling other people morons.
The 42-S was a top pop 1 in MS67 for several years. The 44P was a top pop 1 when it sold at auction, as has been discussed. His set had the 41-S in 67 for many years when that grade and pop held steady at (I think) 6 pieces. Some of the plus graded superb gems in his collection are pop 1 issues, so therefore garnered very strong monies. Congratulations to the long term set registry leader in WLH shortset on the auction results.
I see your point. Some validity there. If I had huge money, and I do love walkers, I am going for rare coins from the High Desert collection or Gerald Forsyth when available.
@SanctionII said:
Are the extremely high prices paid for these late date short set walkers indicative of substantial sales price increases for the highest graded coins in others series of US coins?
In other words is this a bull market for most if not all of the US market and are the increased prices showing up for coins that are not pop top?
Virtually everything has been going up in the last few months.
Walker enthusiasts have been well aware of the Lulu short set for a long time and more importantly what coins are in it.
JBN is one voice I would listen to who has really studied the handful of truly high grade late date coins.
The Lulu coins (or JBN’s or the older Oskey set for example) are in high demand and in low availability so they are pretty much an entirely different market than the coins one or two grades lower.
"Look up, old boy, and see what you get." -William Bonney.
@breakdown said:
Walker enthusiasts have been well aware of the Lulu short set for a long time and more importantly what coins are in it.
JBN is one voice I would listen to who has really studied the handful of truly high grade late date coins.
The Lulu coins (or JBN’s or the older Oskey set for example) are in high demand and in low availability so they are pretty much an entirely different market than the coins one or two grades lower.
The Lulu set was always upgrading. It had the 47P&D in 67 during the times where their top pop was steady at 7 pieces. Same for the 45-S when its top pop at 67 was only 2 pieces.
My 41, 46 & 47D are former Oskey. Although a lot of his pieces had color, the 41 does not and is a favorite of mine in my collection.
Will the demographic curve eventually impact the coin market like the stock market as boomers must sell holdings during retirement? Or does the Fed pumping the money supply make this irrelevant?
Seated Half Society member #38 "Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
I want the best of all world's.
I want coin collecting to be an excellent hobby as well as an excellent investment. Heck if it is a great investment for a dealer, why can't it be a the same for a buyer/collector? So I buy less coins due to upward price movements but I get more appreciation with each addition. I hope sports memorabilia and world coins move up to, its been a long drought.
... healthy gains---such as the seller of the walker short set just realized.
Not everything gained. The 1944 68 CAC, the only lot showing a prior auction appearance - and discussed here at the time, went down from $109,250 in 2010 to $84,000. Don't know how the owner did on the rest of the set without knowing their cost. I'm guessing they made up for that 25k loss.
Prices were probably helped by a positive feeling in the market, but were likely to be strong anyway especially if Hansen was involved in the bidding. The top pop registry material can be very disconnected from the rest of the market and may not indicate alot about the majority of prices.
Well said! These prices are paid by fools who don’t understand true rarity.
You really have no idea what you’re talking about. I guarantee that the particular buyer who I know bought a few of them knows all about true rarity. His pocketbook can easily withstand any loss he might incur....if any.
Deep pockets doesn’t mean sensible purchases. Any millionaire can fritter away money needlessly. I can buy a gorgeous Walker in 66 or 67 for under $500 1943 or 1944, not for $60000/80000. That’s a 100x multiple for a minute technical improvement in a 67+ or 68. How is that rational. A 1921S in 65 for big money absolutely!! Pcgs pop 1921 65 17 66 2. Pcgs pop 1943 65 8800 66 2800
You don't have to care about condition rarity. The fact that others do doesn't make them irrational. The market is what it is. Buck it at your own peril.
You criticize my sensible opinion but almost everybody else knocked the hell out of the legendary 1958 $129,000 Franklin buyer. Called him an idiot Hypocrisy?
I never called him an idiot. People may spend their money where they wish.
I like type collecting. I have no interest in paying more for a 1916-D than a 1916-P Merc. I don't see the value. HOWEVER, I would never call someone who did irrational.
Non- collectors think paying a premium for old worn coins is itself irrational. They do not understand your desire to pay $500 for a 66 Walker. But we all choose and all have the right to choose where we spend our money.
You know how you make money in the coin market? You understand other people's desire and the market value. You don't make money by trying to impose your sensibilities on other people. And you definitely don't make money by calling other people morons.
My overall comments were less harsh than the multitude of extremely negative comments posted in the thread on the 1958 Franklin half bought for $129,000. The owner lost $80,000 upon resale and people were calling the $40,000 paid by the next owner crazy. I didn’t call anybody an idiot or moron just used the phrase irrational which wasn’t any harsher than most of the words used in the Franklin thread.
@7Jaguars said:
Thousands of dollars for minimal preservation rarities? Go get 'em tigers!
I understand where Rubicon is coming from.
@tradedollarnut said: I didn’t call anybody an idiot or moron
Just ‘fool’ ...
Not just “fool”, but “...fools who don’t understand true rarity.”
Okay maybe not best choice of words, but much harsher comments said by other forum commentators in that Legend Auction 1958 Franklin $129,000 purchase thread , that lost the owner $80 grand.
It never ceases to amaze me how many people on this forum condescend to explain how others are wasting their money or being foolish with their money. Condition rarity and off-the-charts toning are two of the favorite whipping boys.
My view is: buy what you like and a lot of people really like Walkers. They have a spectacular design and some of the later dates, in particular can result in a conditionally rare blend of luster and toning and technical merit.
I doubt the Lulu owner had to take out a mortgage on his house to make those purchases, and if he did, more power to him -- he was able to enjoy some beautiful coins. In any event, he made out incredibly well. A number of people, including me, criticized some of his purchases but I think he had the last laugh on us.
"Look up, old boy, and see what you get." -William Bonney.
@tradedollarnut said: I didn’t call anybody an idiot or moron
Just ‘fool’ ...
Not just “fool”, but “...fools who don’t understand true rarity.”
Okay maybe not best choice of words, but much harsher comments said by other forum commentators in that Legend Auction 1958 Franklin $129,000 purchase thread , that lost the owner $80 grand.
OK, so those commentators were rude, as well.😉
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@tradedollarnut said: I didn’t call anybody an idiot or moron
Just ‘fool’ ...
Not just “fool”, but “...fools who don’t understand true rarity.”
Okay maybe not best choice of words, but much harsher comments said by other forum commentators in that Legend Auction 1958 Franklin $129,000 purchase thread , that lost the owner $80 grand.
OK, so those commentators were rude, as well.😉
My apologies to you mr. Feld and anybody offended including the new owners. Still I don’t take back my opinion that is a very poor purchase for this price. I respect that a buyer can spend their money anyway they like even if it doesn’t make sense.
@tradedollarnut said: I didn’t call anybody an idiot or moron
Just ‘fool’ ...
Not just “fool”, but “...fools who don’t understand true rarity.”
Okay maybe not best choice of words, but much harsher comments said by other forum commentators in that Legend Auction 1958 Franklin $129,000 purchase thread , that lost the owner $80 grand.
OK, so those commentators were rude, as well.😉
My apologies to you mr. Feld and anybody offended including the new owners. Still I don’t take back my opinion that is a very poor purchase for this price. I respect that a buyer can spend their money anyway they like even if it doesn’t make sense TO ME.
@tradedollarnut said: I didn’t call anybody an idiot or moron
Just ‘fool’ ...
Not just “fool”, but “...fools who don’t understand true rarity.”
Okay maybe not best choice of words, but much harsher comments said by other forum commentators in that Legend Auction 1958 Franklin $129,000 purchase thread , that lost the owner $80 grand.
OK, so those commentators were rude, as well.😉
My apologies to you mr. Feld and anybody offended including the new owners. Still I don’t take back my opinion that is a very poor purchase for this price. I respect that a buyer can spend their money anyway they like even if it doesn’t make sense TO ME.
@trueblood said:
I want the best of all world's.
I want coin collecting to be an excellent hobby as well as an excellent investment. Heck if it is a great investment for a dealer, why can't it be a the same for a buyer/collector? So I buy less coins due to upward price movements but I get more appreciation with each addition. I hope sports memorabilia and world coins move up to, its been a long drought.
Dealers don't invest in coins. They buy and sell them.
@tradedollarnut said: I didn’t call anybody an idiot or moron
Just ‘fool’ ...
Not just “fool”, but “...fools who don’t understand true rarity.”
Okay maybe not best choice of words, but much harsher comments said by other forum commentators in that Legend Auction 1958 Franklin $129,000 purchase thread , that lost the owner $80 grand.
OK, so those commentators were rude, as well.😉
My apologies to you mr. Feld and anybody offended including the new owners. Still I don’t take back my opinion that is a very poor purchase for this price. I respect that a buyer can spend their money anyway they like even if it doesn’t make sense TO ME.
@trueblood said:
I want the best of all world's.
I want coin collecting to be an excellent hobby as well as an excellent investment. Heck if it is a great investment for a dealer, why can't it be a the same for a buyer/collector? So I buy less coins due to upward price movements but I get more appreciation with each addition. I hope sports memorabilia and world coins move up to, its been a long drought.
Dealers don't invest in coins. They buy and sell them.
Dealers buy coins to make a profit that is equivalent to investing imo
Why should collectors be expected to ( ie its not unexpected to) lose money the minute they walk out of a dealership?
@tradedollarnut said:
IMHO, dealers would be better off buying and holding in some markets (ie: investing) than trying to find continuous quality inventory (ie: retailing)
Interesting. What percentage of dealers do you believe do this on occasion?
@tradedollarnut said:
IMHO, dealers would be better off buying and holding in some markets (ie: investing) than trying to find continuous quality inventory (ie: retailing)
@tradedollarnut said:
IMHO, dealers would be better off buying and holding in some markets (ie: investing) than trying to find continuous quality inventory (ie: retailing)
with 20-20 hindsight you might say that
With intimate knowledge of who makes more money - a high end collector or high end dealer - I might say that…
Playing the top pop condition rarity game on common mint state coins is a dangerous game IMO.
You've got to have the demand needle in the red to maintain the values. To each his own, good luck I have no ill will towards those pursuing perfection.
As far as coin price increases, bear in mind there are tens of millions of investors with investable funds. I see no reason why numismatics shouldn't receive more and more attention. The hobby is active, liquid and interesting.
@trueblood said:
I want the best of all world's.
I want coin collecting to be an excellent hobby as well as an excellent investment. Heck if it is a great investment for a dealer, why can't it be a the same for a buyer/collector? So I buy less coins due to upward price movements but I get more appreciation with each addition. I hope sports memorabilia and world coins move up to, its been a long drought.
Dealers don't invest in coins. They buy and sell them.
Dealers buy coins to make a profit that is equivalent to investing imo
Why should collectors be expected to ( ie its not unexpected to) lose money the minute they walk out of a dealership?
It is truly not the same thing. There's a huge difference between profiting on the bid/ask spread vs profiting from price appreciation.
Interesting discussion, the perspective of each individual has a lot to do with what is rational or not. I understand the desire to own the best even if I cannot rationalize the cost to do so on this scale. Congrats to the new owner or owners of these amazing coins.
@trueblood said:
I want the best of all world's.
I want coin collecting to be an excellent hobby as well as an excellent investment. Heck if it is a great investment for a dealer, why can't it be a the same for a buyer/collector? So I buy less coins due to upward price movements but I get more appreciation with each addition. I hope sports memorabilia and world coins move up to, its been a long drought.
Dealers don't invest in coins. They buy and sell them.
Dealers buy coins to make a profit that is equivalent to investing imo
Why should collectors be expected to ( ie its not unexpected to) lose money the minute they walk out of a dealership?
It is truly not the same thing. There's a huge difference between profiting on the bid/ask spread vs profiting from price appreciation.
@trueblood said:
I want the best of all world's.
I want coin collecting to be an excellent hobby as well as an excellent investment. Heck if it is a great investment for a dealer, why can't it be a the same for a buyer/collector? So I buy less coins due to upward price movements but I get more appreciation with each addition. I hope sports memorabilia and world coins move up to, its been a long drought.
Dealers don't invest in coins. They buy and sell them.
Dealers buy coins to make a profit that is equivalent to investing imo
Why should collectors be expected to ( ie its not unexpected to) lose money the minute they walk out of a dealership?
It is truly not the same thing. There's a huge difference between profiting on the bid/ask spread vs profiting from price appreciation.
I never said anyone was profiting on the bid/ask spread.
I happen to want to profit after many years of ownership. What could be wrong with that. Who wants to lose out on opportunity costs? I want to buy smart, and not necessarily lowball and sell if I chose down the road at a healthy profit. why shouldn't coins experience price appreciation. And buying low and selling high isn't such a bad model either. But I also know for the foodstuff one must at least expect to pay up, there aren't any free lunches in my neck of the woods.
@trueblood said:
I want the best of all world's.
I want coin collecting to be an excellent hobby as well as an excellent investment. Heck if it is a great investment for a dealer, why can't it be a the same for a buyer/collector? So I buy less coins due to upward price movements but I get more appreciation with each addition. I hope sports memorabilia and world coins move up to, its been a long drought.
Dealers don't invest in coins. They buy and sell them.
Dealers buy coins to make a profit that is equivalent to investing imo
Why should collectors be expected to ( ie its not unexpected to) lose money the minute they walk out of a dealership?
It is truly not the same thing. There's a huge difference between profiting on the bid/ask spread vs profiting from price appreciation.
I never said anyone was profiting on the bid/ask spread.
But that’s a large part what dealers do and it’s a far cry from investing.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@tradedollarnut said: I didn’t call anybody an idiot or moron
Just ‘fool’ ...
Not just “fool”, but “...fools who don’t understand true rarity.”
Okay maybe not best choice of words, but much harsher comments said by other forum commentators in that Legend Auction 1958 Franklin $129,000 purchase thread , that lost the owner $80 grand.
OK, so those commentators were rude, as well.😉
My apologies to you mr. Feld and anybody offended including the new owners. Still I don’t take back my opinion that is a very poor purchase for this price. I respect that a buyer can spend their money anyway they like even if it doesn’t make sense TO ME.
@tradedollarnut said: I didn’t call anybody an idiot or moron
Just ‘fool’ ...
Not just “fool”, but “...fools who don’t understand true rarity.”
Okay maybe not best choice of words, but much harsher comments said by other forum commentators in that Legend Auction 1958 Franklin $129,000 purchase thread , that lost the owner $80 grand.
OK, so those commentators were rude, as well.😉
My apologies to you mr. Feld and anybody offended including the new owners. Still I don’t take back my opinion that is a very poor purchase for this price. I respect that a buyer can spend their money anyway they like even if it doesn’t make sense TO ME.
@tradedollarnut said:
IMHO, dealers would be better off buying and holding in some markets (ie: investing) than trying to find continuous quality inventory (ie: retailing)
Interesting. What percentage of dealers do you believe do this on occasion?
@tradedollarnut said:
IMHO, dealers would be better off buying and holding in some markets (ie: investing) than trying to find continuous quality inventory (ie: retailing)
Interesting. What percentage of dealers do you believe do this on occasion?
Not to answer for TDN, but if I may extrapolate from my small circle of dealer acquaintances to the broader population, I’d say many of them.
I’ve heard it referred to differently, like future retirement fund, personal holdings, private collection, etc., but it’s the same thing. They acquire something exceptional and rather than put it in inventory for a nominal mark up, they lock it away. The hope is that it will appreciate more in value over time, and they also get to enjoy owning “cool coins”, outside of the working stock.
@trueblood said:
I want the best of all world's.
I want coin collecting to be an excellent hobby as well as an excellent investment. Heck if it is a great investment for a dealer, why can't it be a the same for a buyer/collector? So I buy less coins due to upward price movements but I get more appreciation with each addition. I hope sports memorabilia and world coins move up to, its been a long drought.
Dealers don't invest in coins. They buy and sell them.
Dealers buy coins to make a profit that is equivalent to investing imo
Why should collectors be expected to ( ie its not unexpected to) lose money the minute they walk out of a dealership?
It is truly not the same thing. There's a huge difference between profiting on the bid/ask spread vs profiting from price appreciation.
And yet…the result is profit…
I would think a successful dealer with funds to invest would invest at least some of those funds in the sector he/she has the most knowledge . . . .
@trueblood said:
I want the best of all world's.
I want coin collecting to be an excellent hobby as well as an excellent investment. Heck if it is a great investment for a dealer, why can't it be a the same for a buyer/collector? So I buy less coins due to upward price movements but I get more appreciation with each addition. I hope sports memorabilia and world coins move up to, its been a long drought.
Dealers don't invest in coins. They buy and sell them.
Dealers buy coins to make a profit that is equivalent to investing imo
Why should collectors be expected to ( ie its not unexpected to) lose money the minute they walk out of a dealership?
It is truly not the same thing. There's a huge difference between profiting on the bid/ask spread vs profiting from price appreciation.
And yet…the result is profit…
True, but most people would not call the bread truck pulling up at Walmart as Walmart "investing" in bread.
If I find a quarter in a parking lot, I profited but I didn't invest.
@trueblood said:
I want the best of all world's.
I want coin collecting to be an excellent hobby as well as an excellent investment. Heck if it is a great investment for a dealer, why can't it be a the same for a buyer/collector? So I buy less coins due to upward price movements but I get more appreciation with each addition. I hope sports memorabilia and world coins move up to, its been a long drought.
Dealers don't invest in coins. They buy and sell them.
Dealers buy coins to make a profit that is equivalent to investing imo
Why should collectors be expected to ( ie its not unexpected to) lose money the minute they walk out of a dealership?
It is truly not the same thing. There's a huge difference between profiting on the bid/ask spread vs profiting from price appreciation.
And yet…the result is profit…
I would think a successful dealer with funds to invest would invest at least some of those funds in the sector he/she has the most knowledge . . . .
A dealer could invest. Some will buy a trophy coin or hold inventory that is priced above current market. Anyone could "invest" but it decreases efficiency.
If I'm dealing, I can easily do 100% annual return on inventory costs. If I'm investing, I'd be lucky to do 10%. That's why turnover is a measure of business efficiency.
As far as coin price increases, bear in mind there are tens of millions of investors with investable funds. I see no reason why numismatics shouldn't receive more and more attention. The hobby is active, liquid and interesting.
Only a low proportion of coins are actually liquid, certainly not compared to publicly traded markets.
@trueblood said:
I happen to want to profit after many years of ownership. What could be wrong with that. Who wants to lose out on opportunity costs? I want to buy smart, and not necessarily lowball and sell if I chose down the road at a healthy profit. why shouldn't coins experience price appreciation. And buying low and selling high isn't such a bad model either. But I also know for the foodstuff one must at least expect to pay up, there aren't any free lunches in my neck of the woods.
If you want an example, let's consider gold. Let's say gold is in a bull market and you want to invest so you buy 10 ounces of gold for $20,000 and put it aside. And let's say gold is going up 20% per year.
I'm a dealer. I buy/sell bullion in the same bull market. Bid ask spread on gold is about 3-4% per ounce (roughly $50 to $75). Let's go with 3% per ounce. If I've been around and have a stable customer base, I can have predictable weekly buy/sales. Let's say I do only 5 ounces per week.
So, every week I'm buying and selling $10,000 in gold and making $250. [hardly seems worth it, right?] But at the end of the year, I have made a total of $13,000 and never had more than $10,000 in gold. You had $20,000 in gold and made $4000.
In a nutshell, that is the difference between "dealing" and "investing".
And, even if gold went down 20% this year, I still made $13,000 on my $10,000 in gold inventory while you lost $4000 of your $20,000 gold holding.
If you are dealing, you don't need the market to go up. Your profit is tied strictly to bid/ask spread. Obviously, a bull market helps because it increases sales and you might also get some increased bid/ask spread as the market is moving in your direction. But the philosophy is different. When proof eagles were $35/$40 last year, I bought at $35 and sold at $40 and made $5. Proof eagles are $72/$80 now, so I buy at $72 and sell at $80. If proof eagles drop to melt, I'll buy at $28 and sell at $32. Price appreciation isn't the model.
Yes, you can set things aside as a dealer. You can speculate on price increases. You can try to time the market. But the general model is very different from "investing". If you buy $100,000 in inventory and wait for it to go up, you are investing (speculating?) not dealing. You can do either one, but we shouldn't mix the models as the goal is different.
As a (part-time) dealer, I buy a lot of crap that I don't care about and that I don't think will ever go up much (red seals, bulk wheat cents, bulk Indian cents, etc.) But I don't need to be bullish on them, I just need to know what the current market price is and who to sell them to. If you are buying to "invest" then you need to be bullish on what you're buying. It's a very different mindset.
Comments
The 42-S was a top pop 1 in MS67 for several years. The 44P was a top pop 1 when it sold at auction, as has been discussed. His set had the 41-S in 67 for many years when that grade and pop held steady at (I think) 6 pieces. Some of the plus graded superb gems in his collection are pop 1 issues, so therefore garnered very strong monies. Congratulations to the long term set registry leader in WLH shortset on the auction results.
I> @JBN said:
I see your point. Some validity there. If I had huge money, and I do love walkers, I am going for rare coins from the High Desert collection or Gerald Forsyth when available. That’s early date rarity and amazing quality
Then you’ll be buying some of these very coins.
Are the extremely high prices paid for these late date short set walkers indicative of substantial sales price increases for the highest graded coins in others series of US coins?
In other words is this a bull market for most if not all of the US market and are the increased prices showing up for coins that are not pop top?
Sorry about the fools word, the person is entitled to spend their money as they wish. I just can’t wrap my head around such a price for the $120,000 1943 Walker the most common coin in the series. 67+ price is only $1400. You could buy truly rare gold coins for this money. Just astonishing the price paid. As incredible as the 1958 Franklin and I think almost all collectors will agree on this point.
Deleted.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
“As incredible as the 1958 Franklin and I think almost all collectors will agree on this point.”
And, so here you see why ones words and presentation are so vitally important. As ones reasonable message can easily get lost in translation, especially when labeling the actions of these players so negatively.
Taking a look at the heart of the matter, I can easily agree that a 1943 Walker (highest Mintage of entire series as I recall) or a 1958 Franklin or any common date Washington Quarter from the 1940s or 1950s, etc. (short of being truly a near perfect coin) doesn’t have the relative value, vis a vis other scarce or rare US coins, to justify a $120,000-$130,000 price tag in pop top grade.
But, here you need to know your audience. The “players” for pop top Walkers have historically been among the deepest pocket collectors/investors out there. The sports team owners, who have watched their franchise values over the past 10-15 years truly skyrocket in ways that make the entire value for the top 1943 Walker, etc. look like afternoon “tip money” and makes our discussion appear silly in nature. Or CEO’s who earn annually bonuses that could buy up nearly every registry set of every denomination of coins from the 1940s or 1950s or 1960s in just a year or two bonus! Some of these players were born in 1943 or 1958 and have a strong attachment to these dates.
News flash- the future sports team owners and CEO’s in the country were born in 1986 or 1995 or 2000! They are now 21-35 years old. Give them 20-25 years and guess what they will be collecting and buying for “insane” money. Do you think it will be 1943 50C or 1986 50C (or 1986 first year silver eagles for that matter) in finest known (and truly spectacular quality) grade that moves up the most from here?
Real discussion here. A few years back, I graded an exceedingly scarce 1986 Kennedy Half Dollar in PCGS-MS68+. Price Guide currently $4,250. The PCGS “pop” today is 1 in MS67+, 1 in MS68 and 1 in MS68+. In the next 10-20 years, what has a more likely chance to move up 20x from here? My finest known 1986 50C in MS68+ ($4,250 to $85,000) or that 1943 Walker ($120,000 to $2,400,000). Passing on that single 1943 Walker allows me right now to buy up 25-30 similar “modern” super-grade coins (in a mix of denominations) to my 1986 50C. This is where I’ll put my $120,000 over that 1943 50C any day of any week.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
I never called him an idiot. People may spend their money where they wish.
I like type collecting. I have no interest in paying more for a 1916-D than a 1916-P Merc. I don't see the value. HOWEVER, I would never call someone who did irrational.
Non- collectors think paying a premium for old worn coins is itself irrational. They do not understand your desire to pay $500 for a 66 Walker. But we all choose and all have the right to choose where we spend our money.
You know how you make money in the coin market? You understand other people's desire and the market value. You don't make money by trying to impose your sensibilities on other people. And you definitely don't make money by calling other people morons.
Not until they drop to $500 he won't.
Virtually everything has been going up in the last few months.
Walker enthusiasts have been well aware of the Lulu short set for a long time and more importantly what coins are in it.
JBN is one voice I would listen to who has really studied the handful of truly high grade late date coins.
The Lulu coins (or JBN’s or the older Oskey set for example) are in high demand and in low availability so they are pretty much an entirely different market than the coins one or two grades lower.
"Look up, old boy, and see what you get." -William Bonney.
Uber-gem, uber-common coins are not what I would ever choose to collect...but to each his own!
Latin American Collection
The price guide is suddenly as relevant as January’s price of plywood at Home Depot.
The Lulu set was always upgrading. It had the 47P&D in 67 during the times where their top pop was steady at 7 pieces. Same for the 45-S when its top pop at 67 was only 2 pieces.
My 41, 46 & 47D are former Oskey. Although a lot of his pieces had color, the 41 does not and is a favorite of mine in my collection.
Will the demographic curve eventually impact the coin market like the stock market as boomers must sell holdings during retirement? Or does the Fed pumping the money supply make this irrelevant?
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
Price guides are always suspect for low pop coins. Price guides are better for widgets.
Thousands of dollars for minimal preservation rarities? Go get 'em tigers!
I understand where Rubicon is coming from.
Well, just Love coins, period.
I want the best of all world's.
I want coin collecting to be an excellent hobby as well as an excellent investment. Heck if it is a great investment for a dealer, why can't it be a the same for a buyer/collector? So I buy less coins due to upward price movements but I get more appreciation with each addition. I hope sports memorabilia and world coins move up to, its been a long drought.
My overall comments were less harsh than the multitude of extremely negative comments posted in the thread on the 1958 Franklin half bought for $129,000. The owner lost $80,000 upon resale and people were calling the $40,000 paid by the next owner crazy. I didn’t call anybody an idiot or moron just used the phrase irrational which wasn’t any harsher than most of the words used in the Franklin thread.
Thanks for your support. Z so> @7Jaguars said:
Thanks for your kind words. You understand my whole point
I didn’t call anybody an idiot or moron
Just ‘fool’ ...
Not just “fool”, but “...fools who don’t understand true rarity.”
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Okay maybe not best choice of words, but much harsher comments said by other forum commentators in that Legend Auction 1958 Franklin $129,000 purchase thread , that lost the owner $80 grand.
It never ceases to amaze me how many people on this forum condescend to explain how others are wasting their money or being foolish with their money. Condition rarity and off-the-charts toning are two of the favorite whipping boys.
My view is: buy what you like and a lot of people really like Walkers. They have a spectacular design and some of the later dates, in particular can result in a conditionally rare blend of luster and toning and technical merit.
I doubt the Lulu owner had to take out a mortgage on his house to make those purchases, and if he did, more power to him -- he was able to enjoy some beautiful coins. In any event, he made out incredibly well. A number of people, including me, criticized some of his purchases but I think he had the last laugh on us.
"Look up, old boy, and see what you get." -William Bonney.
OK, so those commentators were rude, as well.😉
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
My apologies to you mr. Feld and anybody offended including the new owners. Still I don’t take back my opinion that is a very poor purchase for this price. I respect that a buyer can spend their money anyway they like even if it doesn’t make sense.
FIFY
@JBN that 1941 Walker looks incredible.
Successful BST with ad4400, Kccoin, lablover, pointfivezero, koynekwest, jwitten, coin22lover, HalfDimeDude, erwindoc, jyzskowsi, COINS MAKE CENTS, AlanSki, BryceM
Dealers don't invest in coins. They buy and sell them.
Fixed it for you
Dealers buy coins to make a profit that is equivalent to investing imo
Why should collectors be expected to ( ie its not unexpected to) lose money the minute they walk out of a dealership?
IMHO, dealers would be better off buying and holding in some markets (ie: investing) than trying to find continuous quality inventory (ie: retailing)
Interesting. What percentage of dealers do you believe do this on occasion?
with 20-20 hindsight you might say that
With intimate knowledge of who makes more money - a high end collector or high end dealer - I might say that…
Playing the top pop condition rarity game on common mint state coins is a dangerous game IMO.
You've got to have the demand needle in the red to maintain the values. To each his own, good luck I have no ill will towards those pursuing perfection.
As far as coin price increases, bear in mind there are tens of millions of investors with investable funds. I see no reason why numismatics shouldn't receive more and more attention. The hobby is active, liquid and interesting.
It is truly not the same thing. There's a huge difference between profiting on the bid/ask spread vs profiting from price appreciation.
Interesting discussion, the perspective of each individual has a lot to do with what is rational or not. I understand the desire to own the best even if I cannot rationalize the cost to do so on this scale. Congrats to the new owner or owners of these amazing coins.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
And yet…the result is profit…
I never said anyone was profiting on the bid/ask spread.
I happen to want to profit after many years of ownership. What could be wrong with that. Who wants to lose out on opportunity costs? I want to buy smart, and not necessarily lowball and sell if I chose down the road at a healthy profit. why shouldn't coins experience price appreciation. And buying low and selling high isn't such a bad model either. But I also know for the foodstuff one must at least expect to pay up, there aren't any free lunches in my neck of the woods.
But that’s a large part what dealers do and it’s a far cry from investing.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Ty
I'm one! Most of the Barber Halves I'm selling now I bought between 5 + 10 years ago.
Not to answer for TDN, but if I may extrapolate from my small circle of dealer acquaintances to the broader population, I’d say many of them.
I’ve heard it referred to differently, like future retirement fund, personal holdings, private collection, etc., but it’s the same thing. They acquire something exceptional and rather than put it in inventory for a nominal mark up, they lock it away. The hope is that it will appreciate more in value over time, and they also get to enjoy owning “cool coins”, outside of the working stock.
I would think a successful dealer with funds to invest would invest at least some of those funds in the sector he/she has the most knowledge . . . .
True, but most people would not call the bread truck pulling up at Walmart as Walmart "investing" in bread.
If I find a quarter in a parking lot, I profited but I didn't invest.
A dealer could invest. Some will buy a trophy coin or hold inventory that is priced above current market. Anyone could "invest" but it decreases efficiency.
If I'm dealing, I can easily do 100% annual return on inventory costs. If I'm investing, I'd be lucky to do 10%. That's why turnover is a measure of business efficiency.
>
Only a low proportion of coins are actually liquid, certainly not compared to publicly traded markets.
If you want an example, let's consider gold. Let's say gold is in a bull market and you want to invest so you buy 10 ounces of gold for $20,000 and put it aside. And let's say gold is going up 20% per year.
I'm a dealer. I buy/sell bullion in the same bull market. Bid ask spread on gold is about 3-4% per ounce (roughly $50 to $75). Let's go with 3% per ounce. If I've been around and have a stable customer base, I can have predictable weekly buy/sales. Let's say I do only 5 ounces per week.
So, every week I'm buying and selling $10,000 in gold and making $250. [hardly seems worth it, right?] But at the end of the year, I have made a total of $13,000 and never had more than $10,000 in gold. You had $20,000 in gold and made $4000.
In a nutshell, that is the difference between "dealing" and "investing".
And, even if gold went down 20% this year, I still made $13,000 on my $10,000 in gold inventory while you lost $4000 of your $20,000 gold holding.
If you are dealing, you don't need the market to go up. Your profit is tied strictly to bid/ask spread. Obviously, a bull market helps because it increases sales and you might also get some increased bid/ask spread as the market is moving in your direction. But the philosophy is different. When proof eagles were $35/$40 last year, I bought at $35 and sold at $40 and made $5. Proof eagles are $72/$80 now, so I buy at $72 and sell at $80. If proof eagles drop to melt, I'll buy at $28 and sell at $32. Price appreciation isn't the model.
Yes, you can set things aside as a dealer. You can speculate on price increases. You can try to time the market. But the general model is very different from "investing". If you buy $100,000 in inventory and wait for it to go up, you are investing (speculating?) not dealing. You can do either one, but we shouldn't mix the models as the goal is different.
As a (part-time) dealer, I buy a lot of crap that I don't care about and that I don't think will ever go up much (red seals, bulk wheat cents, bulk Indian cents, etc.) But I don't need to be bullish on them, I just need to know what the current market price is and who to sell them to. If you are buying to "invest" then you need to be bullish on what you're buying. It's a very different mindset.