NEWP, Collecting Die Marriages in CAC
Desert Moon
Posts: 6,485 ✭✭✭✭✭
HI Folks,
Below is an image of a new bust quarter. It is an interesting quarter for a variety of reasons. It is an 1818 P55/CAC in die marriage B2. It is a mid-die state, with several clashes obverse and reverse, and the signature die crack above Ms. Liberty's cap that is an identifier for the die marriage. The obverse die was only used for this die marriage, and the reverse was also used in the 1818 B3 marriage. It is the most common die marriage amongst the 1818 clan, with an R1 according to Rea et al. Bust quarter book. Because getting beaned bust quarters has been a slow process, it got me to thinking - what are the chances of getting any give die marriage in any given grade range? So decided to find out.
There are 10 die marriages for the 1818, CAC treats the B1 separately, and lumps the other 9 together. That makes it difficult to know how many other of a given die marriage (same for most of the bust quarters) have passed at CAC. Since I want to mostly have CAC beaned bust quarters, with the confidence that the examples meet the surface quality expectations of these evaluators, I decided to derive an estimate of how many and what grades may be out there for a given die marriage. One can do this for all of the bust quarters and any other early coinage, using published rarity estimates for die marriages and published numbers for CAC coins, I derived a table of number of coins in CAC based on grade and die marriage. This of course can change with time, but for bust quarters the relative differences in rarity between die marriages are pretty well known.
For the 1818 quarters (minus the B1) I took the average of the estimates for each die marriage out of Rea et al.. The number of 1818 quarters currently with green beans (none in gold) is 186 - 64 in G-F, 58 in VF, 22 in F, 25 in AU, and 17 in MS. I split them up for numerical grades and then based on rarity estimates, calculated the expected number of beaned examples for each grade and the amount for G-F, VF, XF, AU, and MS for each die marriage. The latter was done because for all but the R1 B2, most of the numerical grades are going to be rare in beaned examples. This won't change if one takes the high and low values (instead of the averages) for a given rarity. I will just give some examples here based on my 1818's but I am going to keep on working on this for all of the years. Some quick conclusions below.
Here is the newp B2:
It was hard to image because it is an older slab with the gasket and the coin is angled in the gasket relative to the slab surfaces. This makes it a real pain to image because of reflections from the lights such that capturing the beauty of the coin was difficult. After several tries with light position, lens height, and tilting of the slab, I finally got close. This example has a nice patina with underlying surfaces that are mirrored. Depending on the lighting is can show no luster, silky luster, or a nice cartwheel. The toning under the right angle to lighting is copper and aqua marine on the obverse, and copper on the reverse - can't show that completely unless the light source is right on top of the coin, but this is showing hints of that toning.
I estimate that the B2 die marriage is around 46% of the total gradable 1818 quarters. So for 186 CAC, that means about 86 of them are B2 - 11-12 in AU, around 3 in 55, and 12 better. These might be underestimating the amounts because for the rare die marriages, there might be even less beaned than the calculations I did show. Nevertheless, just a few of these are in 55 and it will be hard to get a better one, and expensive.
Two other examples
Here is my B5 (R4+) in P25:
What are my changes of upgrading to a better example? Well according to the estimates from my calculations, there are 5 or 6 of these beaned. Mine may be the only one in VF, and there may be a couple in XF to MS grades. That's right, there can't be too many of these beaned. So even though it is not the best example, if I want this die marriage and beaned, this might be the only one I ever see.......
Here is my B8 (R3) in P55:
For the R3 die marriages, there should be about 20 each for CAC. This includes maybe 2 MS, 2-3 AU, and 2-3 in XF. For AU55, this could be the only one. And there could be 1 to 3 finer for this die marriage.
Finally, I have 2 1818 quarters in P55/CAC. That is 1/3 of the total of 6 beaned for all of the die marriages 2-10. For all of the 1818s, there are only 26 beaned in higher grades.
So what is the conclusion here? Any ≥R3 die marriage is really darn hard to find in XF or better beaned in the bust quarter series. This is not likely to change much even as more are evaluated. So if I find one, I should not be afraid to pay up if it is a nice example.
This type of analysis could be done for all of the early series. I suspect we would find out that beaned examples, with mostly better surfaces than most of the unbeaned ones, are worth the premiums they have.
Best, SH
Comments
Great looking coins and nice write up. Congrats
Latin American Collection
Great images, and appreciate the information. Well written and good luck with the hunt.
Great analysis! That 1818 B-2 b is just gorgeous!
An ambitious set! Good luck and a great start
siliconvalleycoins.com
Great post! And it's been a lot of fun following along as you add NEWPs. When it comes to bust quarters, adding more than one or two a year is a big accomplishment.
The good news is that I'm pretty sure I've seen VF/XF examples of every die marriage in the Large Size series beaned (or beanable). So at least they're out there. (I'm excluding 1822 B-3 here, obviously) For 1818, B6 and B7 will probably be the toughest.
Yup, they are getting harder to find, we will see how the CAC population changes over time. I suspect alot of great ones are in 'strong hands', and not necessarily being sent to CAC........ OTOH there has been some nice sets come out where most of the coins would not make because of the 'cleaned in the past' rejects (I have a few of those, the dreaded CITP sticker upon return).
My 1818 B7 is a F12/CAC, according to my estimates, there should be 4 or 5 more beaned, at least 3 of those VF or better...... The Rea condition census identified ~40 B7's in VF or better.
Best, SH
Lovely coins all but the browning 8 is most charming!
Can you now identify all the varieties on sight alone? I doubt I could do it.
"She comes out of the sun in a silk dress,
running like a water color in the rain...."
Wonderful set, very impressive Quality!
Doing the same series except in mostly raw good to fine.
Very enjoyable yet sporadic, sometimes I'll go a year between purchases, sometimes two or three within a month.
If i find a kind i don't have yet, they're often net graded and look ok at arms length, mostly R5+ die states anymore
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Your B7 might be an ex-scuba coin (via CRO if so). I have a VF20 right now but I’m still not satisfied with it. Not beaned btw
There are some amazing quarters held back by the guys who built sets before the books came out. But some duds as well, as we’ve seen. In any case, an all-cac set will be an incredible achievement, but you’d better cherry-pick that 1821 B6!
Good luck with your search! Nice CBQs!
See http://www.doubledimes.com for a free online reference for US twenty-cent pieces
The B8 has that original look that CAC wants us all to love....... Some varieties I can identify on sight, many, not. I have all of the bust quarter books to aid the id's.
Best, SH
My B7 came from David Sunshine:
I'd be happy if I get to 70 of the die marriages for all 3 bust quarter series. There are a few I am just never going to get because of price and rarity. I am at 63 DM total, 49 of which are CAC.....
Best, SH
Love your writeups @spacehayduke and that new 1818 B2 is a gorgeous beauty! Congrat's on another great pick!!
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
I think they’re all attainable minus the 1821 B6. That coin needs to go to auction and get a market price because there are a few for sale in the $50k range that have sat for multiple years, including one on GC. I’d expect the first VF to hit the block to bring around $30k and the next one to bring less. But who knows.
For that money, I’d choose a nice 1823!