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1794 SP66.....

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  • DelawareDoonsDelawareDoons Posts: 3,413 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MrEureka said:

    @privaterarecoincollector said:

    @DelawareDoons said:
    Last sale was $10,016,875.00

    It failed to sell here for $7,000,000 plus a 17.5% buyers premium, or $8,225,000.00.

    That means the value lies somewhere under that number, a $1,800,000 loss or so, at a minimum.

    Top bidder was $5,250,000.00 prior to Laura's $5,500,000.00 and jump bid. That is a $6,168,750.00 bid. Split the difference between that bid and the minimum bid it did not sell for this time, and that's what I would expect is close to its real value, $7,200,000.00 or so.

    That is a big hit to take. I doubt we see this coin again for 10-15 years, especially with the optics of it not selling this time around being so... messy. You can maybe try to write it off as being Covid-19 related, but the reality is the ultra-wealthy have money and aren't afraid to step up to buy stuff they think is truly special. The issue here is that numbers asked of this coin require people to step out... not up. Stepping out onto ledges is generally not behavior you're going to see in people who have this kind of money to spend on a coin.

    Look at the opportunity cost of purchasing this coin compared to buying SPY or something. SPY opened at $149.13 on 1/23/2013, and opened at $349.59 today. 67,168 shares of SPY at that open price are worth $23,481,261.00. Given my ballpark estimation of the actual value of the coin today, that puts the opportunity cost of acquiring this con at a massive $16,443,000.00 or so. Double what it is worth.

    This is why you do not see the younger generation of ultra-wealthy people chasing coins. The returns just are not there when compared to other investment vehicles, even collectable items like artwork or rare cars, which often produce double-digit returns. I firmly believe the ultra-high end coin market (The $1m+ coins) is in trouble at least in the short-term thanks to so many of these high-end collectors selling out, arguably in more trouble than the lower, middle-class portion of the coin market.

    I agree on everything said here. And exactly this:

    Look at the opportunity cost of purchasing this coin compared to buying SPY or something. SPY opened at $149.13 on 1/23/2013, and opened at $349.59 today. 67,168 shares of SPY at that open price are worth $23,481,261.00. Given my ballpark estimation of the actual value of the coin today, that puts the opportunity cost of acquiring this con at a massive $16,443,000.00 or so. Double what it is worth.

    Opportunity cost is is a useful concept when contemplating a purchase, and it is based on expected returns, i.e., guesswork. Calculating opportunity cost based on hindsight is usually only useful if you want to torture yourself.

    Given Legend purchased this on Bruce's behalf and it was touted as the coin that "WILL BE THE HALLMARK OF OUR NUMISMATICS FIRM FOR YEARS TO COME" you could certainly consider the purchase of this coin a capital expenditure, in which case, you should really be considering if this was a smart use of capital or if that capital would have been better utilized elsewhere, making opportunity cost a very important component of reviewing the decision after the fact.

    They paid for publicity, at the end of the day, and they got plenty of it. However, the negative publicity surrounding its failure to sell does not look good for the high-end coin market at all, and is arguably more damaging than the positive publicity that was generated from breaking the 8 digit threshold.

    One way or another, it was either a mistake to spend $10m on the coin, or it was a mistake to put it up for auction right now. Pick your poison.

    Just as one last note; I expect this coin probably will not come up at auction again until the 2030's, and at that point, I would expect it to sell for at least $10m again, thanks mostly due to inflationary pressures

    "It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."

  • SYRACUSIANSYRACUSIAN Posts: 6,461 ✭✭✭✭
    edited October 12, 2020 1:47PM

    @WCC said:
    @bidask said:

    The 1794 SP 66 PCGS dollar is so special that it’s the kind of item a non coin collector who is wealthy could buy .

    I believe. that could easily happen . Or an institution could buy that coin .

    Will it happen ? ... I don’t know ...

    But the coin is that special.

    The 2019 Ultra Wealth Report (data for 2018) estimates over 17,000 with a net worth above $250MM and almost 40,000 with a net worth between $100MM and $250MM.

    Considering the line of work you are in, you are probably familiar with this data. How does this reconcile to your post?

    @MrEureka said:

    @privaterarecoincollector said:

    @DelawareDoons said:
    Last sale was $10,016,875.00

    It failed to sell here for $7,000,000 plus a 17.5% buyers premium, or $8,225,000.00.

    That means the value lies somewhere under that number, a $1,800,000 loss or so, at a minimum.

    Top bidder was $5,250,000.00 prior to Laura's $5,500,000.00 and jump bid. That is a $6,168,750.00 bid. Split the difference between that bid and the minimum bid it did not sell for this time, and that's what I would expect is close to its real value, $7,200,000.00 or so.

    That is a big hit to take. I doubt we see this coin again for 10-15 years, especially with the optics of it not selling this time around being so... messy. You can maybe try to write it off as being Covid-19 related, but the reality is the ultra-wealthy have money and aren't afraid to step up to buy stuff they think is truly special. The issue here is that numbers asked of this coin require people to step out... not up. Stepping out onto ledges is generally not behavior you're going to see in people who have this kind of money to spend on a coin.

    Look at the opportunity cost of purchasing this coin compared to buying SPY or something. SPY opened at $149.13 on 1/23/2013, and opened at $349.59 today. 67,168 shares of SPY at that open price are worth $23,481,261.00. Given my ballpark estimation of the actual value of the coin today, that puts the opportunity cost of acquiring this con at a massive $16,443,000.00 or so. Double what it is worth.

    This is why you do not see the younger generation of ultra-wealthy people chasing coins. The returns just are not there when compared to other investment vehicles, even collectable items like artwork or rare cars, which often produce double-digit returns. I firmly believe the ultra-high end coin market (The $1m+ coins) is in trouble at least in the short-term thanks to so many of these high-end collectors selling out, arguably in more trouble than the lower, middle-class portion of the coin market.

    I agree on everything said here. And exactly this:

    Look at the opportunity cost of purchasing this coin compared to buying SPY or something. SPY opened at $149.13 on 1/23/2013, and opened at $349.59 today. 67,168 shares of SPY at that open price are worth $23,481,261.00. Given my ballpark estimation of the actual value of the coin today, that puts the opportunity cost of acquiring this con at a massive $16,443,000.00 or so. Double what it is worth.

    Opportunity cost is is a useful concept when contemplating a purchase, and it is based on expected returns, i.e., guesswork. Calculating opportunity cost based on hindsight is usually only useful if you want to torture yourself.

    😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

    Dimitri



    myEbay



    DPOTD 3
  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 24,347 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @privaterarecoincollector said:

    Look at the opportunity cost of purchasing this coin compared to buying SPY or something. SPY opened at $149.13 on 1/23/2013, and opened at $349.59 today. 67,168 shares of SPY at that open price are worth $23,481,261.00. Given my ballpark estimation of the actual value of the coin today, that puts the opportunity cost of acquiring this con at a massive $16,443,000.00 or so. Double what it is worth.

    Opportunity cost is is a useful concept when contemplating a purchase, and it is based on expected returns, i.e., guesswork. Calculating opportunity cost based on hindsight is usually only useful if you want to torture yourself.

    Longterm Growth is the name of the game.

    It’s the name of ONE game.

    Anyway, you’re mostly right, but I think you missed my point.

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • bidaskbidask Posts: 14,017 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @privaterarecoincollector said:

    @DelawareDoons said:
    Last sale was $10,016,875.00

    It failed to sell here for $7,000,000 plus a 17.5% buyers premium, or $8,225,000.00.

    That means the value lies somewhere under that number, a $1,800,000 loss or so, at a minimum.

    Top bidder was $5,250,000.00 prior to Laura's $5,500,000.00 and jump bid. That is a $6,168,750.00 bid. Split the difference between that bid and the minimum bid it did not sell for this time, and that's what I would expect is close to its real value, $7,200,000.00 or so.

    That is a big hit to take. I doubt we see this coin again for 10-15 years, especially with the optics of it not selling this time around being so... messy. You can maybe try to write it off as being Covid-19 related, but the reality is the ultra-wealthy have money and aren't afraid to step up to buy stuff they think is truly special. The issue here is that numbers asked of this coin require people to step out... not up. Stepping out onto ledges is generally not behavior you're going to see in people who have this kind of money to spend on a coin.

    Look at the opportunity cost of purchasing this coin compared to buying SPY or something. SPY opened at $149.13 on 1/23/2013, and opened at $349.59 today. 67,168 shares of SPY at that open price are worth $23,481,261.00. Given my ballpark estimation of the actual value of the coin today, that puts the opportunity cost of acquiring this con at a massive $16,443,000.00 or so. Double what it is worth.

    This is why you do not see the younger generation of ultra-wealthy people chasing coins. The returns just are not there when compared to other investment vehicles, even collectable items like artwork or rare cars, which often produce double-digit returns. I firmly believe the ultra-high end coin market (The $1m+ coins) is in trouble at least in the short-term thanks to so many of these high-end collectors selling out, arguably in more trouble than the lower, middle-class portion of the coin market.

    I agree on everything said here. And exactly this:

    Look at the opportunity cost of purchasing this coin compared to buying SPY or something. SPY opened at $149.13 on 1/23/2013, and opened at $349.59 today. 67,168 shares of SPY at that open price are worth $23,481,261.00. Given my ballpark estimation of the actual value of the coin today, that puts the opportunity cost of acquiring this con at a massive $16,443,000.00 or so. Double what it is worth.

    Who really cares what the S&P did ?

    This is/ was a unique opportunity .

    @WCC said:
    @bidask said:

    The 1794 SP 66 PCGS dollar is so special that it’s the kind of item a non coin collector who is wealthy could buy .

    I believe. that could easily happen . Or an institution could buy that coin .

    Will it happen ? ... I don’t know ...

    But the coin is that special.

    The 2019 Ultra Wealth Report (data for 2018) estimates over 17,000 with a net worth above $250MM and almost 40,000 with a net worth between $100MM and $250MM.

    Considering the line of work you are in, you are probably familiar with this data. How does this reconcile to your post?

    It means there are a lot of potential buyers .... add to that list institutions.

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • PQueuePQueue Posts: 901 ✭✭✭

    RE: It means there are a lot of potential buyers .... add to that list institutions.

    ... and they were all blind to this unique opportunity. Granted, the "rare coin" market is thin, but the market spoke.

  • bidaskbidask Posts: 14,017 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 12, 2020 4:27PM

    “Just as one last note; I expect this coin probably will not come up at auction again until the 2030's, and at that point, I would expect it to sell for at least $10m again, thanks mostly due to inflationary pressures”

    That could very well be and supports my point which is why it was a missed opportunity to buy it at the recent Legend auction !

    Look if we are honest we all have coins that have done poorly regards appreciation versus the S&P .... who cares
    unless you think your coins are ALL investments??

    I would think most mega millionaires are
    diversified.

    The coin had been off the market for 7 years .

    Profits could have been taken from stock investments ( like the S&P) to buy this coin.

    Profits could have been taken from the precious metals markets to buy this coin.

    Mega millionaires who are invested in either of these asset classes and are big time coin buyers missed this opportunity
    IMO .

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • DelawareDoonsDelawareDoons Posts: 3,413 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 12, 2020 5:38PM

    @bidask said:

    @privaterarecoincollector said:

    @DelawareDoons said:
    Last sale was $10,016,875.00

    It failed to sell here for $7,000,000 plus a 17.5% buyers premium, or $8,225,000.00.

    That means the value lies somewhere under that number, a $1,800,000 loss or so, at a minimum.

    Top bidder was $5,250,000.00 prior to Laura's $5,500,000.00 and jump bid. That is a $6,168,750.00 bid. Split the difference between that bid and the minimum bid it did not sell for this time, and that's what I would expect is close to its real value, $7,200,000.00 or so.

    That is a big hit to take. I doubt we see this coin again for 10-15 years, especially with the optics of it not selling this time around being so... messy. You can maybe try to write it off as being Covid-19 related, but the reality is the ultra-wealthy have money and aren't afraid to step up to buy stuff they think is truly special. The issue here is that numbers asked of this coin require people to step out... not up. Stepping out onto ledges is generally not behavior you're going to see in people who have this kind of money to spend on a coin.

    Look at the opportunity cost of purchasing this coin compared to buying SPY or something. SPY opened at $149.13 on 1/23/2013, and opened at $349.59 today. 67,168 shares of SPY at that open price are worth $23,481,261.00. Given my ballpark estimation of the actual value of the coin today, that puts the opportunity cost of acquiring this con at a massive $16,443,000.00 or so. Double what it is worth.

    This is why you do not see the younger generation of ultra-wealthy people chasing coins. The returns just are not there when compared to other investment vehicles, even collectable items like artwork or rare cars, which often produce double-digit returns. I firmly believe the ultra-high end coin market (The $1m+ coins) is in trouble at least in the short-term thanks to so many of these high-end collectors selling out, arguably in more trouble than the lower, middle-class portion of the coin market.

    I agree on everything said here. And exactly this:

    Look at the opportunity cost of purchasing this coin compared to buying SPY or something. SPY opened at $149.13 on 1/23/2013, and opened at $349.59 today. 67,168 shares of SPY at that open price are worth $23,481,261.00. Given my ballpark estimation of the actual value of the coin today, that puts the opportunity cost of acquiring this con at a massive $16,443,000.00 or so. Double what it is worth.

    Who really cares what the S&P did ?

    This is/ was a unique opportunity .

    @WCC said:
    @bidask said:

    The 1794 SP 66 PCGS dollar is so special that it’s the kind of item a non coin collector who is wealthy could buy .

    I believe. that could easily happen . Or an institution could buy that coin .

    Will it happen ? ... I don’t know ...

    But the coin is that special.

    The 2019 Ultra Wealth Report (data for 2018) estimates over 17,000 with a net worth above $250MM and almost 40,000 with a net worth between $100MM and $250MM.

    Considering the line of work you are in, you are probably familiar with this data. How does this reconcile to your post?

    It means there are a lot of potential buyers .... add to that list institutions.

    It has traded hands 3 times in the past 20 years! And failed to sell here, opportunity #4. Hardly a unique opportunity. Cut me a break.

    "It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,663 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Sounds like someone is going to start a guessing contest as to when this coin will again be offered for auction or sale.

    I'll take the "under" if the line is the year 2030 😉

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • GazesGazes Posts: 2,315 ✭✭✭✭✭

    We shouldnt dismiss the idea that a collector would pay 8 figures for a coin. I do think there are a number of ten million dollar coins out there if they were to come up for sale. I just dont think this is one of them.

  • DelawareDoonsDelawareDoons Posts: 3,413 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Gazes said:
    We shouldnt dismiss the idea that a collector would pay 8 figures for a coin. I do think there are a number of ten million dollar coins out there if they were to come up for sale. I just dont think this is one of them.

    I do not think anybody is dismissing the idea of an 8 figure coin again, I think most are dismissing this particular coin as an 8 figure coin... for now.

    "It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."

  • cameonut2011cameonut2011 Posts: 10,169 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 12, 2020 10:02PM

    @bidask said:
    “Just as one last note; I expect this coin probably will not come up at auction again until the 2030's, and at that point, I would expect it to sell for at least $10m again, thanks mostly due to inflationary pressures”

    This is highly speculative and pulled out of someone's rear. Coins often do not keep up with inflation. People also retire or die (hopefully not) unexpectedly. In this pandemic, anything is possible. You also forget opportunity cost.

  • bidaskbidask Posts: 14,017 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 13, 2020 5:40AM

    @cameonut2011 said:

    @bidask said:
    “Just as one last note; I expect this coin probably will not come up at auction again until the 2030's, and at that point, I would expect it to sell for at least $10m again, thanks mostly due to inflationary pressures”

    This is highly speculative and pulled out of someone's rear. Coins often do not keep up with inflation. People also retire or die (hopefully not) unexpectedly. In this pandemic, anything is possible. You also forget opportunity cost.

    You need reading glasses.

    Delaware Doons made that comment

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • ShadyDaveShadyDave Posts: 2,207 ✭✭✭✭✭

    At the end of the day, this "unique opportunity" was passed over by everyone in the world. What happens next, I don't know and no one else does either. The world is always changing rapidly and plans change whether you like it or not. It'll be entertaining to see the next time this coin is offered up...

  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 24,347 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @wondercoin said:
    “You're missing the fact ...”

    Andy. Perhaps you are missing something as well ...

    This coin offering was critically important to setting the value of myriad other US coins. I was working with one collector recently on a specific coin where we were debating an asking price of $3M using this dollar as a “comp coin” at $8M-$10M. We likely need to abandon any thought of seeking $3M for this other coin for now after the results of this dollar auction and a few other unsuccessful offerings. And, this dollar was certainly not the only “disappointing” result of late. As I mentioned elsewhere, the finest known 1894-S Dime fetching just $1.2M plus the juice recently... this compares to $1.9M that I (and John F.) sold the same grade coin at (of the pop 2) around (13) years ago. And, you will recall at the time we sold that dime at $1.9M the narrative was always that ultra rarities go nowhere but up almost all the time, if not all the time. This “no sale” had nothing to do with Legend Auctions being the venue of choice- I am quite confident of that.

    Just my 2 cents.

    Wondercoin

    No doubt. Seven figure coins have softened in the past couple of years. And I am not at all surprised.

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,698 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @oldabeintx said:
    This thread seems of late to focus on very expensive coins as "investments", probably because most of us can only relate to an asset at that level of commitment as an investment, rather than the purchase of a thing that gives us pleasure. I'll take TDN at his word that he gets a lot of pleasure just out of owning these high-end coins, which is mainly what matters to him. Most of us can relate to that as well.

    This coin is compelling to US collectors. I presume no one disputes that.

    It isn't of any interest to anyone else, non-collectors or collector of non-US coinage as some on this forum insist on claiming. Some in the US collecting community simply refuse to accept it.

    There is no basis to claim that anyone other than a US collector wants it at anywhere close to it's market price, only a random buyer which is the equivalent of being struck by lightning.

    The first error being made with this assumption is that enough of these affluent people even know it exists. The likelihood is that at least 95% never heard of it or they did, remember nothing about it. This is no different than most other objects (primarily art) selling for the same or more.

    It's also evident that wealthy people didn't achieve and don't maintain their affluence by putting this type of money in a financially non-productive asset. Not being collectors, they derive no satisfaction from owning it, it isn't a status object to them, and it's not a competitive "investment".

  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 34,397 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 13, 2020 9:51AM

    @WCC said:
    It's also evident that wealthy people didn't achieve and don't maintain their affluence by putting this type of money in a financially non-productive asset. Not being collectors, they derive no satisfaction from owning it, it isn't a status object to them, and it's not a competitive "investment".

    One issue with coins is that I'm not sure many of them are financially productive in the sense that say art or cars may be. Laura has been comparing coins with other forms of collectibles for some time but I'm not sure the comparison fits. To me, it seems like it's easier to share an appreciation of art and cars with customers, partners, employees, etc.

    Here's an asset that sold for $91M back in 2019, breaking records for art from a living artist. This still fits into the last few years mentioned by Andy:

    @MrEureka said:
    Seven figure coins have softened in the past couple of years. And I am not at all surprised.

    https://www.monsterchildren.com/is-jeff-koons-steel-rabbit-really-worth-91-million/

  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 34,397 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 13, 2020 10:09AM

    @MrEureka said:
    I’m no expert on art, but for $91 million I would expect a bigger rabbit.

    Think bigger. Make one twice as large, sell it for $182M, and then go buy coins :)

  • SeattleSlammerSeattleSlammer Posts: 10,040 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 13, 2020 11:16AM

    @BryceM said:
    A. Thin markets are famously unpredictable.
    B. In hindsight you can always find an investment that wildly outperformed the one you own.
    C. Every coin purchase (or collectible) is a bit of a gamble. A $1000 loss to some people would be a catastrophe. A couple million to others is just another day at the office.
    D. Sometimes you just gots to spin the wheel & see what happens.
    E. Nobody makes as much noise when things go for more than expected.

    IMO the best summary so far. I especially like A, B and E.

    This thread has legs. Could still get locked though because everyone is going in circles now.

  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,698 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Zoins said:

    @WCC said:
    It's also evident that wealthy people didn't achieve and don't maintain their affluence by putting this type of money in a financially non-productive asset. Not being collectors, they derive no satisfaction from owning it, it isn't a status object to them, and it's not a competitive "investment".

    One issue with coins is that I'm not sure many of them are financially productive in the sense that say art or cars may be. Laura has been comparing coins with other forms of collectibles for some time but I'm not sure the comparison fits. To me, it seems like it's easier to share an appreciation of art and cars with customers, partners, employees, etc.

    There are objects where the ultra wealthy may not mind losing money on it since they get some other intangible benefit. It includes your list. This doesn't apply to any coin for the non-collector.

    It isn't an accident that the tens of thousands who can presumably afford this coin did not buy it or other elite coins previously. It's intrinsic to what any coin represents.

    Here is an example in the same price range that I would buy over any coin if I had this level of affluence. https://www.primelocation.com/for-sale/details/55101100

    This is equally true for the few coin collectors outside the United States who can possibly afford this coin or other US coins in the seven digits. In the other threads before the auction, a few posters here claimed it was "possible". It isn't going to happen either for the same reason US collectors don't pay more for world and ancient coins than those from here. There isn't the same cultural connection.

    It's been the dream of a segment of the professional numismatic community to draw the big money from art into coins. It's not going to happen in any timeframe which is meaningful to anyone now.

  • CoinJunkieCoinJunkie Posts: 8,772 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @SeattleSlammer said:

    @BryceM said:
    A. Thin markets are famously unpredictable.
    B. In hindsight you can always find an investment that wildly outperformed the one you own.
    C. Every coin purchase (or collectible) is a bit of a gamble. A $1000 loss to some people would be a catastrophe. A couple million to others is just another day at the office.
    D. Sometimes you just gots to spin the wheel & see what happens.
    E. Nobody makes as much noise when things go for more than expected.

    IMO the best summary so far. I especially like A, B and E.

    This thread has legs. Could still get locked though because everyone is going in circles now.

    I liked the summary as well, but feel E. was the weakest point. There was plenty of crowing by dealers and others when the coin market was on a tear over a decade ago. Witness also the many precious metal cheerleading threads when gold/silver recently made new highs.

    Threads tend to get locked when they go rampantly OT or people start attacking each other. I don't see either happening here (yet).

  • SeattleSlammerSeattleSlammer Posts: 10,040 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @CoinJunkie said:

    @SeattleSlammer said:

    @BryceM said:
    A. Thin markets are famously unpredictable.
    B. In hindsight you can always find an investment that wildly outperformed the one you own.
    C. Every coin purchase (or collectible) is a bit of a gamble. A $1000 loss to some people would be a catastrophe. A couple million to others is just another day at the office.
    D. Sometimes you just gots to spin the wheel & see what happens.
    E. Nobody makes as much noise when things go for more than expected.

    IMO the best summary so far. I especially like A, B and E.

    This thread has legs. Could still get locked though because everyone is going in circles now.

    I liked the summary as well, but feel E. was the weakest point. There was plenty of crowing by dealers and others when the coin market was on a tear over a decade ago. Witness also the many precious metal cheerleading threads when gold/silver recently made new highs.

    I don’t think he was referring to crowing about especially strong auction results — instead I read it to mean that there isn’t a Monday Morning Quarterbacking Fest (i.e. this thread) about the wisdom of offering those coins for sale when the realized prices are strong.

  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 24,347 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @DelawareDoons said:

    @bidask said:

    @privaterarecoincollector said:

    @DelawareDoons said:
    Last sale was $10,016,875.00

    It failed to sell here for $7,000,000 plus a 17.5% buyers premium, or $8,225,000.00.

    That means the value lies somewhere under that number, a $1,800,000 loss or so, at a minimum.

    Top bidder was $5,250,000.00 prior to Laura's $5,500,000.00 and jump bid. That is a $6,168,750.00 bid. Split the difference between that bid and the minimum bid it did not sell for this time, and that's what I would expect is close to its real value, $7,200,000.00 or so.

    That is a big hit to take. I doubt we see this coin again for 10-15 years, especially with the optics of it not selling this time around being so... messy. You can maybe try to write it off as being Covid-19 related, but the reality is the ultra-wealthy have money and aren't afraid to step up to buy stuff they think is truly special. The issue here is that numbers asked of this coin require people to step out... not up. Stepping out onto ledges is generally not behavior you're going to see in people who have this kind of money to spend on a coin.

    Look at the opportunity cost of purchasing this coin compared to buying SPY or something. SPY opened at $149.13 on 1/23/2013, and opened at $349.59 today. 67,168 shares of SPY at that open price are worth $23,481,261.00. Given my ballpark estimation of the actual value of the coin today, that puts the opportunity cost of acquiring this con at a massive $16,443,000.00 or so. Double what it is worth.

    This is why you do not see the younger generation of ultra-wealthy people chasing coins. The returns just are not there when compared to other investment vehicles, even collectable items like artwork or rare cars, which often produce double-digit returns. I firmly believe the ultra-high end coin market (The $1m+ coins) is in trouble at least in the short-term thanks to so many of these high-end collectors selling out, arguably in more trouble than the lower, middle-class portion of the coin market.

    I agree on everything said here. And exactly this:

    Look at the opportunity cost of purchasing this coin compared to buying SPY or something. SPY opened at $149.13 on 1/23/2013, and opened at $349.59 today. 67,168 shares of SPY at that open price are worth $23,481,261.00. Given my ballpark estimation of the actual value of the coin today, that puts the opportunity cost of acquiring this con at a massive $16,443,000.00 or so. Double what it is worth.

    Who really cares what the S&P did ?

    This is/ was a unique opportunity .

    @WCC said:
    @bidask said:

    The 1794 SP 66 PCGS dollar is so special that it’s the kind of item a non coin collector who is wealthy could buy .

    I believe. that could easily happen . Or an institution could buy that coin .

    Will it happen ? ... I don’t know ...

    But the coin is that special.

    The 2019 Ultra Wealth Report (data for 2018) estimates over 17,000 with a net worth above $250MM and almost 40,000 with a net worth between $100MM and $250MM.

    Considering the line of work you are in, you are probably familiar with this data. How does this reconcile to your post?

    It means there are a lot of potential buyers .... add to that list institutions.

    It has traded hands 3 times in the past 20 years! And failed to sell here, opportunity #4. Hardly a unique opportunity.

    Maybe, maybe not. I can think of at least two unique coins that I would really have liked to have owned forever that slipped through my fingers and landed in museums. One I owned and had to sell, the other I underbid and still regret. And I can think of many other coins that used to be affordable and probably (for me) never will be again, so those might as well have gone to museums. Bottom line? Like Janis said, “get it while you can”.

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • amwldcoinamwldcoin Posts: 11,269 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Like bigger than your house? :#

    @MrEureka said:
    I’m no expert on art, but for $91 million I would expect a bigger rabbit.

  • cwtcwt Posts: 292 ✭✭✭

    @MrEureka said:
    Maybe, maybe not. I can think of at least two unique coins that I would really have liked to have owned forever that slipped through my fingers and landed in museums. One I owned and had to sell, the other I underbid and still regret. And I can think of many other coins that used to be affordable and probably (for me) never will be again, so those might as well have gone to museums. Bottom line? Like Janis said, “get it while you can”.

    What were those two unique coins?

  • cwtcwt Posts: 292 ✭✭✭

    Both exceptional coins. No wonder why you miss them.

  • ByersByers Posts: 1,625 ✭✭✭✭✭

    A very interesting discussion.

    mikebyers.com Dealer in Major Mint Errors, Die Trials & Patterns - Author of NLG Best World Coin Book World's Greatest Mint Errors - Publisher & Editor of minterrornews.com.
  • CaptainBluntCaptainBlunt Posts: 199 ✭✭✭

    Mr Eureka after all these years I remember that JSO $5. Harvey and Lawrence Stack donated it to the Smithsonian to be placed with the Lilly Collection. Superior sold it in 1989 for $125,000. I guess Stack’s must have then acquired the coin from you via private treaty. I think the DuPont family had a plain edge $5 that was stolen. It’s pedigree went back beyond Edgar H Adams.

  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 34,397 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @CaptainBlunt said:
    Mr Eureka after all these years I remember that JSO $5. Harvey and Lawrence Stack donated it to the Smithsonian to be placed with the Lilly Collection.

    What was their reasoning for the donation? Did it somehow fit with the Lilly Collection? Did they donate other pieces?

  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 24,347 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @CaptainBlunt said:
    Mr Eureka after all these years I remember that JSO $5. Harvey and Lawrence Stack donated it to the Smithsonian to be placed with the Lilly Collection. Superior sold it in 1989 for $125,000. I guess Stack’s must have then acquired the coin from you via private treaty. I think the DuPont family had a plain edge $5 that was stolen. It’s pedigree went back beyond Edgar H Adams.

    Martin Paul bought it at Superior and sold it to me. I don't recall who I sold it to, but it wasn't to the Stacks. I'm going to have to take a run at the DuPont coin if it ever turns up!

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • truebloodtrueblood Posts: 609 ✭✭✭✭
    edited October 13, 2020 10:33PM

    I guess I will join in, I predict the 1794 SP sells before year end. Sometimes when one says it isn't for sale it really is if you know what I mean. Any who that's my guess.

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,663 ✭✭✭✭✭

    This is estimated to auction for between $23 and 38 million in the near future:

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 34,397 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 14, 2020 1:24AM

    @WCC said:
    It's been the dream of a segment of the professional numismatic community to draw the big money from art into coins. It's not going to happen in any timeframe which is meaningful to anyone now.

    I've mentioned this before but we might need to change how people enjoy coins for this breakthrough. I've mentioned we should have giclee art of photos like TrueView hanging on people's walls to try to enjoy coins that way.

    When I see coin displays at shows with a slab inside a glass case behind a velvet rope, it doesn't look that interesting to me and it's hard to share it with others. Having large scale TrueView-like photos hanging on wall that you can get close to could have more potential for discussion. One reason is that multiple people can look at the wall art and discuss it at the same time, while when something is small in a presentation like that, only one person can really look at it at a time.

  • 1northcoin1northcoin Posts: 4,614 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Zoins said:

    @WCC said:
    It's been the dream of a segment of the professional numismatic community to draw the big money from art into coins. It's not going to happen in any timeframe which is meaningful to anyone now.

    I've mentioned this before but we might need to change how people enjoy coins for this breakthrough. I've mentioned we should have giclee art of photos like TrueView hanging on people's walls to try to enjoy coins that way.

    When I see coin displays at shows with a slab inside a glass case behind a velvet rope, it doesn't look that interesting to me and it's hard to share it with others. Having large scale TrueView-like photos hanging on wall that you can get close to could have more potential for discussion. One reason is that multiple people can look at the wall art and discuss it at the same time, while when something is small in a presentation like that, only one person can really look at it at a time.

    Interesting "out of the box" take. An unintended consequence of "boxing" rare coins in plastic may well be as identified. I guess there is a reason our nation's most prized coins at the Smithsonian are "out of the box."

  • DelawareDoonsDelawareDoons Posts: 3,413 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 14, 2020 8:01AM

    For what it is worth, art is a weird field. A lot ends up in "free ports" where you do not have to pay taxes on the sale price, so money is just parked into art for resale in 15-20-25-30 years, essentially occupying the niche that was once taken by gold in large, multi-billion dollar portfolios. High-end art is a bubble of sorts, in my opinion, but not a bubble that will pop any time soon as long as the ultra-wealthy continue to accumulate a greater and greater share of the wealth produced by the world.

    "It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."

  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 34,397 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 14, 2020 8:33AM

    @MrEureka said:
    The first is the 1849 Ormsby $5 with reeded edge, now at the Smithsonian. The second is the Mary & Darnley Ryal, which isn't actually unique but was the only one in private hands before it was acquired by a museum in Scotland. (I'm too lazy to verify if this was the one I missed - it was a long time ago - but it was at least roughly the equivalent.)




    What do you feel about the people who donated these to museums?

    Have visited these coins in their museums now?

  • HigashiyamaHigashiyama Posts: 2,223 ✭✭✭✭✭

    At some point in time, the value of the 1794 SP66 dollar will likely pass that of the Jeff Koons rabbit. At that point, the values of both, in real dollars, may be lower than the values today.

    Higashiyama
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,663 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Coinosaurus said:
    I am grateful my consignment decisions aren't picked apart with five pages of varying opinions.

    Well, "publicly" cuts both ways, doesn't it? We don't recall seeing you promote your coins for sale in coin forums, your firm doesn't publish newsletters about them, etc.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

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