@Boosibri said:
I’m sure @bidask can do better and only lose 15%.
Kidding, Laura’s logic in that post makes no sense.
It works if you're comparing to those specific down and out stocks, but I don't know anyone that owns those stocks. The ones I, and people I know, hold have done much better than that.
How did the 1794 SP66 dollar perform compared to the S&P500?
Depends on your time frame. I bought it in 1988 in one of the hottest coin markets of all time for an aggressive 375K. A buy and hold strategy would not have been much of a disaster.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
@skier07 said:
Can someone kindly explain the strategy of Laura increasing her bid from 5.5 to 8 million dollars?
If she was confident that another specific bidder was likely to jump into the bidding and take it higher than 8.5 hammer, the strategy made some sense and might have been a smart gamble. But even if it was, the asterisk on the auction record may not have been properly taken into consideration, as I explained above.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Purely theoretically and hypothetically, a private sale transaction (or 'treaty'), with no underbidder, could be reported at any price level both parties agree upon. Such an event, especially above 10 million, would, again theoretically, have additional asterisks next to it in the history books
I can tell you exactly why the bid was raised and exactly why the reserve in this auction was so high. I wanted the damn coin at just about any price as it’s always been a dream coin for me. We devised a nuclear strategy because we heard rumors that the top collector bid was going to be $8.5M but that there was an institution interested. Our strategy - worked out months in advance - was to let the coin run to $5M and then jump the bid. Laura couldn’t hear me and I couldn’t hear her on the phone - I’m yelling into the phone “jump the bid, jump the bid”. She finally heard me and jumped the bid. Yes, the strategy included the thought that if it would take $9M to buy the coin that it might as well be $10M. No one truly knows whether there were more bids - the strategy was to blow them out and it worked. The fact that an offer on a regular strike 1794 was turned down at $7.5M prior to the auction is unknown to all of you and supports a very strong price for this coin...it’s always sold for significantly more. I also offered $3M for the Norweb 1794 in 64 prior to the auction and was turned down. All of this inside information went into formulating our bidding strategy. I’ve about had enough of the armchair quarterbacks who know none of what happened other than what is found online.
The reserve in this auction was so high because I really didn’t care if I sold the coin or not. Yes, I caught Covid and almost died. Yes, my companies were shut down for a while - that was a factor in the decision to consign the set...but I recovered and the economy recovered and we even got a huge PPP infusion so I really didn’t want to sell...but I’d made a commitment and I honor my commitments. So the auction went off and it was the opportunity of a lifetime to grab it at the minimum bid and now the coin is NOT FOR SALE.
@tradedollarnut thanks for the post and background. Bidding in those environments requires strategy and it’s great to hear how it worked out. I, for one, am glad they didn’t sell and you still have it. It’s great to hear you are embarking on another set, with your two dollars as the centerpieces.
I am glad you are happy with how things turned out. As far being tired of the "arm chair quaterbacks"...well this is a coin forum and that is what people do on these boards (i am sure Hansen has felt the same way about collectors critical of his collection strategy).
The bottom line is it is your coin and you are free to sell it for whatever you want or not sell it at all. Ultimately it is only your opinion that matters since it is your coin.
I was at a show in Mississippi that had a charity auction after the show to help with the aftermath of Katrina. I had spent a ton of money in the auction...and my wife totally buried me on 1 lot. There were 3 little sculptures of trolls or something...don't know what you would call them but I liked them. The bidding was at $20 and I jumped it to $100. The auctioneer accepted my bid. After the auction I was lambasted by the person who donated them to the auction. Apparently he paid no attention to the stupid money I paid for other items in the auction. In his defense...when I really looked at them they had price tags over $100 a piece on the bottom.
@Nap said:
There have been different strategies used to bid at auction since forever. A large increment advance is one. Others involve bidding fast, bidding slow, using multiple proxy bidders at different levels, standing and holding your arm up and daring anyone to bid against you, making "secret" bids by scratching your nose or winking at the auctioneer, placing advance "book" bids while also bidding in the room, being on the phone with yourself while pretending to be talking to a cautious or aggressive client, etc.
The move toward robust internet bidding in the past 5-10 years has probably taken away from some of the fun and shenanigans of the saleroom.
Thanks for the inside information Bruce. It is fascinating for us smaller fish to get a glimpse and incite into that end of the market. I, for one, greatly appreciate it.
I do find it kinda funny that the strategy was essentially the same thing I do all the time. If you think you know the end number, due to the larger bid increments, it’s very advantageous to get to that number first. I usually prebid to the number to get it first, or jump one bid if my bid order would not naturally land on the number.
That said, my number is significantly lower, and much more easily calculated, than the 1794.
I've done some sneaky bids myself on some major rarities (not in the US series), and worked in conjunction with representation and had to do a bit a of "maneuvering", occasionally psyching out major competition, but not nuclear. I guess some tactics one keeps to one's self....
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
@tradedollarnut Thanks for your comments Bruce! I am glad you are well, and for a a box of three, I doubt anyone could consider a finer trio. I would be honored if I ever had a chance to look and study and photograph that tiny little collection collection personally. I'd probably need more time than many other larger groups to really get a chance to appreciate them.
For everyone else who plays in the smaller pools, here's a thought comparison ... but let's lop off 3 or 4 digits to get it down to a point of reference most of us can better understand.
By doing that I don't think I can have a pop top in the 18th or 19th century with the pedigree and the history of a 1794 Dollar, but let's say the coin (whatever it is) is a rare and very desirable coin in your specialty and ideal for the grade and what you want. They rarely ever come up for sale, but you have wanted one for years ... and again, this one is the "perfect" example for what you want. Plus, you can afford the bid.
The coin is bid to $525. (or $5,250) but you are sure another collector is looking and he or she has had the tendency to "go big", and has beat you out for the perfect examples before.
Do you lay down the gauntlet with a $850. (or $8,500.) bid for that coin ... one you may prize more than they do, but you want to make sure there is no doubt that you mean business, and you are taking it home?
I know I sure as heck might. And I wouldn't feel bad about winning it then either.
It's a hobby for some, and all investment aspects aside, thank God for that, or we'd just be talking about our 1/100.000ths of a point ownership in a company through company stock, trying to find the right nickel to make a dime on the national exchange ... like many of us do with real investment money anyway.
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
@bidask said:
i will say again that I believe that coin was worth the $7mm reserve bid plus the juice.
That was an opportunistic buy !
Based on what?
You just saw Bruce post the coin is not for sale now.
Good luck if you think the coin can be bought at or below what it could have been bought at Legend’s auction .
At $7mm hammer that coin was most definitely an opportunistic buy.
It is an amazing coin and certainly one to treasure; however, it is not the only 1794 dollar. Most are looking to fill a registry slot or hole in their set and a "generic" (very much tongue in cheek) coin will do. It isn't an absolute ultra rarity in the sense that the J-1776 pattern or 1849 double eagle are. It is a condition rarity (albeit a very significant one).
its hard to price these coins, what I saw in the last 4 years at auctions is that there are many buyers for a 500k USD coin, few buyers for a 1+ Million coin and very few buyers for a 4+ Million coin. Its just a lot of money for one coin.
@earlyAurum said:
I don't think it is venue. You need a couple of collectors in building sets requiring these types of coins. Without Simpson, Bruce, Pogue and Jung chasing these coins at the same time, these are the results.
Yes and the Pandemic world/economy we live in was a HUGE factor .
Btw- I bet more collections with Uber rarities will be on the market fairly soon .
No evidence the pandemic has been a factor at all. There is no shortage of people with the financial capability to buy any coin or collection at current or higher prices. No way to know if it impacts anyone's psychology but it sure hasn't been one in the major asset classes generally. The asset mania which is the source of most "wealth" remains mostly intact.
@earlyAurum said:
I don't think it is venue. You need a couple of collectors in building sets requiring these types of coins. Without Simpson, Bruce, Pogue and Jung chasing these coins at the same time, these are the results.
Yes and the Pandemic world/economy we live in was a HUGE factor .
Btw- I bet more collections with Uber rarities will be on the market fairly soon .
No evidence the pandemic has been a factor at all. There is no shortage of people with the financial capability to buy any coin or collection at current or higher prices. No way to know if it impacts anyone's psychology but it sure hasn't been one in the major asset classes generally. The asset mania which is the source of most "wealth" remains mostly intact.
I do see some evidence of this. Hansen lowered his budget on a coin from $4M to $2M in the early stages of the pandemic and Bruce put his set up for sale. That was early on but even now, some billionaires have companies that are considering laying off 10,000+ employees. Now, it's turned out better than we have hoped in the beginning, and there's certainly enough funds overall, but I wouldn't say there's no factor.
Another factor aside from Covid is certainly that a number of large collectors have left the hobby and haven't necessarily been replaced by the next generation of such collectors.
@earlyAurum said:
I don't think it is venue. You need a couple of collectors in building sets requiring these types of coins. Without Simpson, Bruce, Pogue and Jung chasing these coins at the same time, these are the results.
Yes and the Pandemic world/economy we live in was a HUGE factor .
Btw- I bet more collections with Uber rarities will be on the market fairly soon .
No evidence the pandemic has been a factor at all. There is no shortage of people with the financial capability to buy any coin or collection at current or higher prices. No way to know if it impacts anyone's psychology but it sure hasn't been one in the major asset classes generally. The asset mania which is the source of most "wealth" remains mostly intact.
I do see some evidence of this. Hansen lowered his budget on a coin from $4M to $2M in the early stages of the pandemic and Bruce put his set up for sale. That was early on but even now, some billionaires have companies that are considering laying off 10,000+ employees. Now, it's turned out better than we have hoped in the beginning, and there's certainly enough funds overall, but I wouldn't say there's no factor.
Another factor aside from Covid is certainly that a number of large collectors have left the hobby and haven't necessarily been replaced by the next generation of such collectors.
Your first paragraph is describing psychology, not necessarily a lack of financial capacity. I agreed with this in my last post. I didn't read the entire thread since I am late to it but noticed that Skyman also commented on this subject and better than I did.
Sure, if most of their wealth is in commercial real estate or in a small to medium sized business, it's a factor but otherwise not really generally.
It also depends upon anyone's assumptions on how many collectors there are with this financial capacity, whether they buy at this level or not. It's my assumption that there are more than most collectors believe, but others here may disagree because they have knowledge that I do not.
Your last comment is describing what an illiquid market coins actually are, which I agree with also. This is one of the primary reasons affluent buyers who can otherwise afford more expensive coins choose a cheaper substitute, somewhat lower quality with US coinage.
My point remains that even though a potential buyer may have the resources, if they are a non-collector they may not appreciate the seemingly (well actually was) pump-up of the previous auction and how the coin was a non-seller this go round. They have many alternatives, and perhaps a painting that hangs on the wall may have relatively greater appeal.
And I think it a wonderful coin, out of my price league certainly, but IMO somewhat overvalued.
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
@tradedollarnut said:
I can tell you exactly why the bid was raised and exactly why the reserve in this auction was so high. I wanted the damn coin at just about any price as it’s always been a dream coin for me. We devised a nuclear strategy because we heard rumors that the top collector bid was going to be $8.5M but that there was an institution interested. Our strategy - worked out months in advance - was to let the coin run to $5M and then jump the bid. Laura couldn’t hear me and I couldn’t hear her on the phone - I’m yelling into the phone “jump the bid, jump the bid”. She finally heard me and jumped the bid. Yes, the strategy included the thought that if it would take $9M to buy the coin that it might as well be $10M. No one truly knows whether there were more bids - the strategy was to blow them out and it worked. The fact that an offer on a regular strike 1794 was turned down at $7.5M prior to the auction is unknown to all of you and supports a very strong price for this coin...it’s always sold for significantly more. I also offered $3M for the Norweb 1794 in 64 prior to the auction and was turned down. All of this inside information went into formulating our bidding strategy. I’ve about had enough of the armchair quarterbacks who know none of what happened other than what is found online.
The reserve in this auction was so high because I really didn’t care if I sold the coin or not. Yes, I caught Covid and almost died. Yes, my companies were shut down for a while - that was a factor in the decision to consign the set...but I recovered and the economy recovered and we even got a huge PPP infusion so I really didn’t want to sell...but I’d made a commitment and I honor my commitments. So the auction went off and it was the opportunity of a lifetime to grab it at the minimum bid and now the coin is NOT FOR SALE.
@tradedollarnut said:
I can tell you exactly why the bid was raised and exactly why the reserve in this auction was so high. I wanted the damn coin at just about any price as it’s always been a dream coin for me. We devised a nuclear strategy because we heard rumors that the top collector bid was going to be $8.5M but that there was an institution interested. Our strategy - worked out months in advance - was to let the coin run to $5M and then jump the bid. Laura couldn’t hear me and I couldn’t hear her on the phone - I’m yelling into the phone “jump the bid, jump the bid”. She finally heard me and jumped the bid. Yes, the strategy included the thought that if it would take $9M to buy the coin that it might as well be $10M. No one truly knows whether there were more bids - the strategy was to blow them out and it worked. The fact that an offer on a regular strike 1794 was turned down at $7.5M prior to the auction is unknown to all of you and supports a very strong price for this coin...it’s always sold for significantly more. I also offered $3M for the Norweb 1794 in 64 prior to the auction and was turned down. All of this inside information went into formulating our bidding strategy. I’ve about had enough of the armchair quarterbacks who know none of what happened other than what is found online.
What is so special about the $10 M point? Laura reported offering $15 M for the J-1776 - you could have made it $15M+ and had the highest offer for a coin ever. Wouldn't that have more of a psychological effect (i.e. not just the highest auctioned, but the highest offer ever reported)? Isn't that what you were aiming for? If you were just aiming for the highest auction record, why not bid just enough for the record or just above the other rumored bid instead of adding the extra $1.5 M? I'm just curious. It looks like the purpose wasn't merely to blow out the other party, but to make coin history. Sometimes perceptions don't meet reality though.
P.S. Was there any data to back up the $7.5 M evaluation for the other 1794 coin? I assume that was for one of the 66+ coins.
@tradedollarnut said:
I can tell you exactly why the bid was raised and exactly why the reserve in this auction was so high. I wanted the damn coin at just about any price as it’s always been a dream coin for me. We devised a nuclear strategy because we heard rumors that the top collector bid was going to be $8.5M but that there was an institution interested. Our strategy - worked out months in advance - was to let the coin run to $5M and then jump the bid. Laura couldn’t hear me and I couldn’t hear her on the phone - I’m yelling into the phone “jump the bid, jump the bid”. She finally heard me and jumped the bid. Yes, the strategy included the thought that if it would take $9M to buy the coin that it might as well be $10M. No one truly knows whether there were more bids - the strategy was to blow them out and it worked. The fact that an offer on a regular strike 1794 was turned down at $7.5M prior to the auction is unknown to all of you and supports a very strong price for this coin...it’s always sold for significantly more. I also offered $3M for the Norweb 1794 in 64 prior to the auction and was turned down. All of this inside information went into formulating our bidding strategy. I’ve about had enough of the armchair quarterbacks who know none of what happened other than what is found online.
What is so special about the $10 M point? Laura reported offering $15 M for the J-1776 - you could have made it $15M+ and had the highest offer for a coin ever. Wouldn't that have more of a psychological effect (i.e. not just the highest auctioned, but the highest offer ever reported)? Isn't that what you were aiming for? If you were just aiming for the highest auction record, why not bid just enough for the record or just above the other rumored bid instead of adding the extra $1.5 M? I'm just curious. It looks like the purpose wasn't merely to blow out the other party, but to make coin history. Sometimes perceptions don't meet reality though.
P.S. Was there any data to back up the $7.5 M evaluation for the other 1794 coin? I assume that was for one of the 66+ coins.
It failed to sell here for $7,000,000 plus a 17.5% buyers premium, or $8,225,000.00.
That means the value lies somewhere under that number, a $1,800,000 loss or so, at a minimum.
Top bidder was $5,250,000.00 prior to Laura's $5,500,000.00 and jump bid. That is a $6,168,750.00 bid. Split the difference between that bid and the minimum bid it did not sell for this time, and that's what I would expect is close to its real value, $7,200,000.00 or so.
That is a big hit to take. I doubt we see this coin again for 10-15 years, especially with the optics of it not selling this time around being so... messy. You can maybe try to write it off as being Covid-19 related, but the reality is the ultra-wealthy have money and aren't afraid to step up to buy stuff they think is truly special. The issue here is that numbers asked of this coin require people to step out... not up. Stepping out onto ledges is generally not behavior you're going to see in people who have this kind of money to spend on a coin.
Look at the opportunity cost of purchasing this coin compared to buying SPY or something. SPY opened at $149.13 on 1/23/2013, and opened at $349.59 today. 67,168 shares of SPY at that open price are worth $23,481,261.00. Given my ballpark estimation of the actual value of the coin today, that puts the opportunity cost of acquiring this con at a massive $16,443,000.00 or so. Double what it is worth.
This is why you do not see the younger generation of ultra-wealthy people chasing coins. The returns just are not there when compared to other investment vehicles, even collectable items like artwork or rare cars, which often produce double-digit returns. I firmly believe the ultra-high end coin market (The $1m+ coins) is in trouble at least in the short-term thanks to so many of these high-end collectors selling out, arguably in more trouble than the lower, middle-class portion of the coin market.
"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
It failed to sell here for $7,000,000 plus a 17.5% buyers premium, or $8,225,000.00.
That means the value lies somewhere under that number, a $1,800,000 loss or so, at a minimum.
Top bidder was $5,250,000.00 prior to Laura's $5,500,000.00 and jump bid. That is a $6,168,750.00 bid. Split the difference between that bid and the minimum bid it did not sell for this time, and that's what I would expect is close to its real value, $7,200,000.00 or so.
That is a big hit to take. I doubt we see this coin again for 10-15 years, especially with the optics of it not selling this time around being so... messy. You can maybe try to write it off as being Covid-19 related, but the reality is the ultra-wealthy have money and aren't afraid to step up to buy stuff they think is truly special. The issue here is that numbers asked of this coin require people to step out... not up. Stepping out onto ledges is generally not behavior you're going to see in people who have this kind of money to spend on a coin.
Look at the opportunity cost of purchasing this coin compared to buying SPY or something. SPY opened at $149.13 on 1/23/2013, and opened at $349.59 today. 67,168 shares of SPY at that open price are worth $23,481,261.00. Given my ballpark estimation of the actual value of the coin today, that puts the opportunity cost of acquiring this con at a massive $16,443,000.00 or so. Double what it is worth.
This is why you do not see the younger generation of ultra-wealthy people chasing coins. The returns just are not there when compared to other investment vehicles, even collectable items like artwork or rare cars, which often produce double-digit returns. I firmly believe the ultra-high end coin market (The $1m+ coins) is in trouble at least in the short-term thanks to so many of these high-end collectors selling out, arguably in more trouble than the lower, middle-class portion of the coin market.
Lots to disagree with there, but I'll just hit on one point. It's a mistake to think that there is such a thing as a "real value" on a unique coin. All that exists is historical transaction prices and unknown future transaction prices. And even at the time of a transaction, the price does not equate to value, as the two parties to the transaction likely valued the coin differently.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
@MrEureka said:
It's a mistake to think that there is such a thing as a "real value" on a unique coin.
Not just unique coins. What is the "real value" of any coin? A common, everyday coin can regularly sell for a number of different prices depending on many factors. You may be able to define a realistic range for those prices but there are almost always outliers. And even though those outliers are rare, they're real for the buyer and seller involved.
Getting hung up on what a coin "should" sell for happens a lot. Just keep reading here if you don't believe me.
It failed to sell here for $7,000,000 plus a 17.5% buyers premium, or $8,225,000.00.
That means the value lies somewhere under that number, a $1,800,000 loss or so, at a minimum.
Top bidder was $5,250,000.00 prior to Laura's $5,500,000.00 and jump bid. That is a $6,168,750.00 bid. Split the difference between that bid and the minimum bid it did not sell for this time, and that's what I would expect is close to its real value, $7,200,000.00 or so.
That is a big hit to take. I doubt we see this coin again for 10-15 years, especially with the optics of it not selling this time around being so... messy. You can maybe try to write it off as being Covid-19 related, but the reality is the ultra-wealthy have money and aren't afraid to step up to buy stuff they think is truly special. The issue here is that numbers asked of this coin require people to step out... not up. Stepping out onto ledges is generally not behavior you're going to see in people who have this kind of money to spend on a coin.
Look at the opportunity cost of purchasing this coin compared to buying SPY or something. SPY opened at $149.13 on 1/23/2013, and opened at $349.59 today. 67,168 shares of SPY at that open price are worth $23,481,261.00. Given my ballpark estimation of the actual value of the coin today, that puts the opportunity cost of acquiring this con at a massive $16,443,000.00 or so. Double what it is worth.
This is why you do not see the younger generation of ultra-wealthy people chasing coins. The returns just are not there when compared to other investment vehicles, even collectable items like artwork or rare cars, which often produce double-digit returns. I firmly believe the ultra-high end coin market (The $1m+ coins) is in trouble at least in the short-term thanks to so many of these high-end collectors selling out, arguably in more trouble than the lower, middle-class portion of the coin market.
I agree on everything said here. And exactly this:
Look at the opportunity cost of purchasing this coin compared to buying SPY or something. SPY opened at $149.13 on 1/23/2013, and opened at $349.59 today. 67,168 shares of SPY at that open price are worth $23,481,261.00. Given my ballpark estimation of the actual value of the coin today, that puts the opportunity cost of acquiring this con at a massive $16,443,000.00 or so. Double what it is worth.
It failed to sell here for $7,000,000 plus a 17.5% buyers premium, or $8,225,000.00.
That means the value lies somewhere under that number, a $1,800,000 loss or so, at a minimum.
Top bidder was $5,250,000.00 prior to Laura's $5,500,000.00 and jump bid. That is a $6,168,750.00 bid. Split the difference between that bid and the minimum bid it did not sell for this time, and that's what I would expect is close to its real value, $7,200,000.00 or so.
That is a big hit to take. I doubt we see this coin again for 10-15 years, especially with the optics of it not selling this time around being so... messy. You can maybe try to write it off as being Covid-19 related, but the reality is the ultra-wealthy have money and aren't afraid to step up to buy stuff they think is truly special. The issue here is that numbers asked of this coin require people to step out... not up. Stepping out onto ledges is generally not behavior you're going to see in people who have this kind of money to spend on a coin.
Look at the opportunity cost of purchasing this coin compared to buying SPY or something. SPY opened at $149.13 on 1/23/2013, and opened at $349.59 today. 67,168 shares of SPY at that open price are worth $23,481,261.00. Given my ballpark estimation of the actual value of the coin today, that puts the opportunity cost of acquiring this con at a massive $16,443,000.00 or so. Double what it is worth.
This is why you do not see the younger generation of ultra-wealthy people chasing coins. The returns just are not there when compared to other investment vehicles, even collectable items like artwork or rare cars, which often produce double-digit returns. I firmly believe the ultra-high end coin market (The $1m+ coins) is in trouble at least in the short-term thanks to so many of these high-end collectors selling out, arguably in more trouble than the lower, middle-class portion of the coin market.
Lots to disagree with there, but I'll just hit on one point. It's a mistake to think that there is such a thing as a "real value" on a unique coin. All that exists is historical transaction prices and unknown future transaction prices. And even at the time of a transaction, the price does not equate to value, as the two parties to the transaction likely valued the coin differently.
Sure, I won't disagree with that, however the fact is that it passed here and the last public sale of this coin was only $506k, granted in 1991. Remember that when Contursi (who paid $2.5m) sold it to Logies/Cardinal, he said that it was an offer he couldn't refuse. I read that as Contursi saying he felt it was an overpayment in a time when cash was more important than the coin.
Cardinal overpaid for it (in rougher market conditions than now!), then Bruce overpaid for it again, in my humble opinion. The failure to sell here is acknowledgement of those overpayments, and resets the market on its value... again, in my humble opinion.
"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
@DelawareDoons said:
Cardinal overpaid for it (in rougher market conditions than now!), then Bruce overpaid for it again, in my humble opinion. The failure to sell here is acknowledgement of those overpayments, and resets the market on its value... again, in my humble opinion.
The thing with rare items and value is you need someone to appreciate it the way you do.
Cardinal and Bruce obviously like the history of the coin and story with it which led them to value and cherish the coin as much as they do. To find the next buyer at those levels, you need to find someone that values it the same way or more.
I've done the same thing with a rare sports car. I sold it on consignment and the dealer told me to lower the price given their experience carrying a lot of cars. I told them not to worry and keep the price because I knew there would be another driver that valued it the way I did, much more than the other cars available. It would be special to that person. Sure enough, someone did show up and buy the car. Of course, it was special enough that I still think about the car, wonder where it is now and would love to feel the rush of driving it again.
The wealthy take big losses in real estate all the time. Bruce has taken his coin off the market, so technically he hasn’t suffered a loss. If he feels compelled to sell in the short term, I think it will be through private treaty.
Seated Half Society member #38 "Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
It failed to sell here for $7,000,000 plus a 17.5% buyers premium, or $8,225,000.00.
That means the value lies somewhere under that number, a $1,800,000 loss or so, at a minimum.
Top bidder was $5,250,000.00 prior to Laura's $5,500,000.00 and jump bid. That is a $6,168,750.00 bid. Split the difference between that bid and the minimum bid it did not sell for this time, and that's what I would expect is close to its real value, $7,200,000.00 or so.
That is a big hit to take. I doubt we see this coin again for 10-15 years, especially with the optics of it not selling this time around being so... messy. You can maybe try to write it off as being Covid-19 related, but the reality is the ultra-wealthy have money and aren't afraid to step up to buy stuff they think is truly special. The issue here is that numbers asked of this coin require people to step out... not up. Stepping out onto ledges is generally not behavior you're going to see in people who have this kind of money to spend on a coin.
Look at the opportunity cost of purchasing this coin compared to buying SPY or something. SPY opened at $149.13 on 1/23/2013, and opened at $349.59 today. 67,168 shares of SPY at that open price are worth $23,481,261.00. Given my ballpark estimation of the actual value of the coin today, that puts the opportunity cost of acquiring this con at a massive $16,443,000.00 or so. Double what it is worth.
This is why you do not see the younger generation of ultra-wealthy people chasing coins. The returns just are not there when compared to other investment vehicles, even collectable items like artwork or rare cars, which often produce double-digit returns. I firmly believe the ultra-high end coin market (The $1m+ coins) is in trouble at least in the short-term thanks to so many of these high-end collectors selling out, arguably in more trouble than the lower, middle-class portion of the coin market.
I agree on everything said here. And exactly this:
Look at the opportunity cost of purchasing this coin compared to buying SPY or something. SPY opened at $149.13 on 1/23/2013, and opened at $349.59 today. 67,168 shares of SPY at that open price are worth $23,481,261.00. Given my ballpark estimation of the actual value of the coin today, that puts the opportunity cost of acquiring this con at a massive $16,443,000.00 or so. Double what it is worth.
Opportunity cost is is a useful concept when contemplating a purchase, and it is based on expected returns, i.e., guesswork. Calculating opportunity cost based on hindsight is usually only useful if you want to torture yourself.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
It failed to sell here for $7,000,000 plus a 17.5% buyers premium, or $8,225,000.00.
That means the value lies somewhere under that number, a $1,800,000 loss or so, at a minimum.
Top bidder was $5,250,000.00 prior to Laura's $5,500,000.00 and jump bid. That is a $6,168,750.00 bid. Split the difference between that bid and the minimum bid it did not sell for this time, and that's what I would expect is close to its real value, $7,200,000.00 or so.
That is a big hit to take. I doubt we see this coin again for 10-15 years, especially with the optics of it not selling this time around being so... messy. You can maybe try to write it off as being Covid-19 related, but the reality is the ultra-wealthy have money and aren't afraid to step up to buy stuff they think is truly special. The issue here is that numbers asked of this coin require people to step out... not up. Stepping out onto ledges is generally not behavior you're going to see in people who have this kind of money to spend on a coin.
Look at the opportunity cost of purchasing this coin compared to buying SPY or something. SPY opened at $149.13 on 1/23/2013, and opened at $349.59 today. 67,168 shares of SPY at that open price are worth $23,481,261.00. Given my ballpark estimation of the actual value of the coin today, that puts the opportunity cost of acquiring this con at a massive $16,443,000.00 or so. Double what it is worth.
This is why you do not see the younger generation of ultra-wealthy people chasing coins. The returns just are not there when compared to other investment vehicles, even collectable items like artwork or rare cars, which often produce double-digit returns. I firmly believe the ultra-high end coin market (The $1m+ coins) is in trouble at least in the short-term thanks to so many of these high-end collectors selling out, arguably in more trouble than the lower, middle-class portion of the coin market.
Lots to disagree with there, but I'll just hit on one point. It's a mistake to think that there is such a thing as a "real value" on a unique coin. All that exists is historical transaction prices and unknown future transaction prices. And even at the time of a transaction, the price does not equate to value, as the two parties to the transaction likely valued the coin differently.
Sure, there's intangible "value" in owning a special coin, but I'd argue that it's factored in adequately when someone calculates what they're willing to bid in actual dollars. Since any "value" outside of actual transaction prices is nebulous and variable, I don't see much use in discussing it. The fact that no one was willing to pay $8.225 million for this coin last week doesn't mean an offer at a higher amount won't surface soon (or hasn't already). But it's fanciful to think it'd me significantly higher. Certainly nowhere in the vicinity of the $23M the owner could have made in the stock market over the holding period. As such, I see @DelawareDoons as being pretty much dead on with his observations.
It failed to sell here for $7,000,000 plus a 17.5% buyers premium, or $8,225,000.00.
That means the value lies somewhere under that number, a $1,800,000 loss or so, at a minimum.
Top bidder was $5,250,000.00 prior to Laura's $5,500,000.00 and jump bid. That is a $6,168,750.00 bid. Split the difference between that bid and the minimum bid it did not sell for this time, and that's what I would expect is close to its real value, $7,200,000.00 or so.
That is a big hit to take. I doubt we see this coin again for 10-15 years, especially with the optics of it not selling this time around being so... messy. You can maybe try to write it off as being Covid-19 related, but the reality is the ultra-wealthy have money and aren't afraid to step up to buy stuff they think is truly special. The issue here is that numbers asked of this coin require people to step out... not up. Stepping out onto ledges is generally not behavior you're going to see in people who have this kind of money to spend on a coin.
Look at the opportunity cost of purchasing this coin compared to buying SPY or something. SPY opened at $149.13 on 1/23/2013, and opened at $349.59 today. 67,168 shares of SPY at that open price are worth $23,481,261.00. Given my ballpark estimation of the actual value of the coin today, that puts the opportunity cost of acquiring this con at a massive $16,443,000.00 or so. Double what it is worth.
This is why you do not see the younger generation of ultra-wealthy people chasing coins. The returns just are not there when compared to other investment vehicles, even collectable items like artwork or rare cars, which often produce double-digit returns. I firmly believe the ultra-high end coin market (The $1m+ coins) is in trouble at least in the short-term thanks to so many of these high-end collectors selling out, arguably in more trouble than the lower, middle-class portion of the coin market.
I agree on everything said here. And exactly this:
Look at the opportunity cost of purchasing this coin compared to buying SPY or something. SPY opened at $149.13 on 1/23/2013, and opened at $349.59 today. 67,168 shares of SPY at that open price are worth $23,481,261.00. Given my ballpark estimation of the actual value of the coin today, that puts the opportunity cost of acquiring this con at a massive $16,443,000.00 or so. Double what it is worth.
SPY was $230 6 months ago. What if someone has enough SPY and wants to diversify? What if someone with enough SPY simply wants to own and enjoy the coin? Opportunity costs can go both ways.
The bottom line is now only Bruce knows what it is worth! There's a lot to be said for holding power. IMHO he will own it until he gets what he wants for it.....of course way down the road(hopefully) it could be his heirs. All it takes is that 1 person who wants it more than Bruce...and no, just because it was in an auction doesn't mean everyone who might be a player has seen it!
The 1794 SP 66 PCGS dollar is so special that it’s the kind of item a non coin collector who is wealthy could buy .
I believe. that could easily happen . Or an institution could buy that coin .
Will it happen ? ... I don’t know ...
But the coin is that special.
The 2019 Ultra Wealth Report (data for 2018) estimates over 17,000 with a net worth above $250MM and almost 40,000 with a net worth between $100MM and $250MM.
Considering the line of work you are in, you are probably familiar with this data. How does this reconcile to your post?
Look at the opportunity cost of purchasing this coin compared to buying SPY or something. SPY opened at $149.13 on 1/23/2013, and opened at $349.59 today. 67,168 shares of SPY at that open price are worth $23,481,261.00. Given my ballpark estimation of the actual value of the coin today, that puts the opportunity cost of acquiring this con at a massive $16,443,000.00 or so. Double what it is worth.
Opportunity cost is is a useful concept when contemplating a purchase, and it is based on expected returns, i.e., guesswork. Calculating opportunity cost based on hindsight is usually only useful if you want to torture yourself.
It failed to sell here for $7,000,000 plus a 17.5% buyers premium, or $8,225,000.00.
That means the value lies somewhere under that number, a $1,800,000 loss or so, at a minimum.
Top bidder was $5,250,000.00 prior to Laura's $5,500,000.00 and jump bid. That is a $6,168,750.00 bid. Split the difference between that bid and the minimum bid it did not sell for this time, and that's what I would expect is close to its real value, $7,200,000.00 or so.
That is a big hit to take. I doubt we see this coin again for 10-15 years, especially with the optics of it not selling this time around being so... messy. You can maybe try to write it off as being Covid-19 related, but the reality is the ultra-wealthy have money and aren't afraid to step up to buy stuff they think is truly special. The issue here is that numbers asked of this coin require people to step out... not up. Stepping out onto ledges is generally not behavior you're going to see in people who have this kind of money to spend on a coin.
Look at the opportunity cost of purchasing this coin compared to buying SPY or something. SPY opened at $149.13 on 1/23/2013, and opened at $349.59 today. 67,168 shares of SPY at that open price are worth $23,481,261.00. Given my ballpark estimation of the actual value of the coin today, that puts the opportunity cost of acquiring this con at a massive $16,443,000.00 or so. Double what it is worth.
This is why you do not see the younger generation of ultra-wealthy people chasing coins. The returns just are not there when compared to other investment vehicles, even collectable items like artwork or rare cars, which often produce double-digit returns. I firmly believe the ultra-high end coin market (The $1m+ coins) is in trouble at least in the short-term thanks to so many of these high-end collectors selling out, arguably in more trouble than the lower, middle-class portion of the coin market.
I agree on everything said here. And exactly this:
Look at the opportunity cost of purchasing this coin compared to buying SPY or something. SPY opened at $149.13 on 1/23/2013, and opened at $349.59 today. 67,168 shares of SPY at that open price are worth $23,481,261.00. Given my ballpark estimation of the actual value of the coin today, that puts the opportunity cost of acquiring this con at a massive $16,443,000.00 or so. Double what it is worth.
SPY was $230 6 months ago. What if someone has enough SPY and wants to diversify? What if someone with enough SPY simply wants to own and enjoy the coin? Opportunity costs can go both ways.
I wasn't arguing that one should never buy expensive coins in favor of owning stocks. In the decade ending in 2010, rare coins handily outperformed SPY. I was simply disagreeing with @MrEureka about the validity of @DelawareDoons 's points. Whether the current relative lack of participants at the highest levels of the coin market is a temporary blip or a secular trend will only be known looking back from the future.
Comments
Depends on your time frame. I bought it in 1988 in one of the hottest coin markets of all time for an aggressive 375K. A buy and hold strategy would not have been much of a disaster.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
i will say again that I believe that coin was worth the $7mm reserve bid plus the juice.
That was an opportunistic buy !
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
If she was confident that another specific bidder was likely to jump into the bidding and take it higher than 8.5 hammer, the strategy made some sense and might have been a smart gamble. But even if it was, the asterisk on the auction record may not have been properly taken into consideration, as I explained above.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Perhaps it would have been an opportunistic buy, except that there was no buy/sale.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I believe no way that Bruce sells that coin for less .....Bruce will just keep it .
Thus the opportunity is gone.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Laura indicated there are three post-auction offers / discussions.
I would think $8.5 mm or more and possibly $10mm or more would not surprise me.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Purely theoretically and hypothetically, a private sale transaction (or 'treaty'), with no underbidder, could be reported at any price level both parties agree upon. Such an event, especially above 10 million, would, again theoretically, have additional asterisks next to it in the history books
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Why would someone pass at $8.25 to then buy for $10? I know it happens but I doubt it.
Latin American Collection
The whole things seems a little strange to me, but I am 100% certain those making the decisions have different information than I do.
I can tell you exactly why the bid was raised and exactly why the reserve in this auction was so high. I wanted the damn coin at just about any price as it’s always been a dream coin for me. We devised a nuclear strategy because we heard rumors that the top collector bid was going to be $8.5M but that there was an institution interested. Our strategy - worked out months in advance - was to let the coin run to $5M and then jump the bid. Laura couldn’t hear me and I couldn’t hear her on the phone - I’m yelling into the phone “jump the bid, jump the bid”. She finally heard me and jumped the bid. Yes, the strategy included the thought that if it would take $9M to buy the coin that it might as well be $10M. No one truly knows whether there were more bids - the strategy was to blow them out and it worked. The fact that an offer on a regular strike 1794 was turned down at $7.5M prior to the auction is unknown to all of you and supports a very strong price for this coin...it’s always sold for significantly more. I also offered $3M for the Norweb 1794 in 64 prior to the auction and was turned down. All of this inside information went into formulating our bidding strategy. I’ve about had enough of the armchair quarterbacks who know none of what happened other than what is found online.
The reserve in this auction was so high because I really didn’t care if I sold the coin or not. Yes, I caught Covid and almost died. Yes, my companies were shut down for a while - that was a factor in the decision to consign the set...but I recovered and the economy recovered and we even got a huge PPP infusion so I really didn’t want to sell...but I’d made a commitment and I honor my commitments. So the auction went off and it was the opportunity of a lifetime to grab it at the minimum bid and now the coin is NOT FOR SALE.
And there you have it....Do carry on.
@tradedollarnut .... you should have led with that! lol
1/2 the fun is speculating. And to be fair most replies here included caveats about obviously not knowing the behind the scenes stuff. 🤠
@tradedollarnut thanks for the post and background. Bidding in those environments requires strategy and it’s great to hear how it worked out. I, for one, am glad they didn’t sell and you still have it. It’s great to hear you are embarking on another set, with your two dollars as the centerpieces.
Who cares about coins.
I am glad that TDN has recovered from Covid, hopefully with no long term problems.
I am glad you are happy with how things turned out. As far being tired of the "arm chair quaterbacks"...well this is a coin forum and that is what people do on these boards (i am sure Hansen has felt the same way about collectors critical of his collection strategy).
The bottom line is it is your coin and you are free to sell it for whatever you want or not sell it at all. Ultimately it is only your opinion that matters since it is your coin.
I was at a show in Mississippi that had a charity auction after the show to help with the aftermath of Katrina. I had spent a ton of money in the auction...and my wife totally buried me on 1 lot. There were 3 little sculptures of trolls or something...don't know what you would call them but I liked them. The bidding was at $20 and I jumped it to $100. The auctioneer accepted my bid. After the auction I was lambasted by the person who donated them to the auction. Apparently he paid no attention to the stupid money I paid for other items in the auction. In his defense...when I really looked at them they had price tags over $100 a piece on the bottom.
Thanks for the inside information Bruce. It is fascinating for us smaller fish to get a glimpse and incite into that end of the market. I, for one, greatly appreciate it.
I do find it kinda funny that the strategy was essentially the same thing I do all the time. If you think you know the end number, due to the larger bid increments, it’s very advantageous to get to that number first. I usually prebid to the number to get it first, or jump one bid if my bid order would not naturally land on the number.
That said, my number is significantly lower, and much more easily calculated, than the 1794.
God bless.
I've done some sneaky bids myself on some major rarities (not in the US series), and worked in conjunction with representation and had to do a bit a of "maneuvering", occasionally psyching out major competition, but not nuclear. I guess some tactics one keeps to one's self....
Well, just Love coins, period.
It's been kind of a popcorn thread, you know?
@tradedollarnut Thanks for your comments Bruce! I am glad you are well, and for a a box of three, I doubt anyone could consider a finer trio. I would be honored if I ever had a chance to look and study and photograph that tiny little collection collection personally. I'd probably need more time than many other larger groups to really get a chance to appreciate them.
For everyone else who plays in the smaller pools, here's a thought comparison ... but let's lop off 3 or 4 digits to get it down to a point of reference most of us can better understand.
By doing that I don't think I can have a pop top in the 18th or 19th century with the pedigree and the history of a 1794 Dollar, but let's say the coin (whatever it is) is a rare and very desirable coin in your specialty and ideal for the grade and what you want. They rarely ever come up for sale, but you have wanted one for years ... and again, this one is the "perfect" example for what you want. Plus, you can afford the bid.
The coin is bid to $525. (or $5,250) but you are sure another collector is looking and he or she has had the tendency to "go big", and has beat you out for the perfect examples before.
Do you lay down the gauntlet with a $850. (or $8,500.) bid for that coin ... one you may prize more than they do, but you want to make sure there is no doubt that you mean business, and you are taking it home?
I know I sure as heck might. And I wouldn't feel bad about winning it then either.
It's a hobby for some, and all investment aspects aside, thank God for that, or we'd just be talking about our 1/100.000ths of a point ownership in a company through company stock, trying to find the right nickel to make a dime on the national exchange ... like many of us do with real investment money anyway.
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
Based on what?
You just saw Bruce post the coin is not for sale now.
Good luck if you think the coin can be bought at or below what it could have been bought at Legend’s auction .
At $7mm hammer that coin was most definitely an opportunistic buy.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
It is an amazing coin and certainly one to treasure; however, it is not the only 1794 dollar. Most are looking to fill a registry slot or hole in their set and a "generic" (very much tongue in cheek) coin will do. It isn't an absolute ultra rarity in the sense that the J-1776 pattern or 1849 double eagle are. It is a condition rarity (albeit a very significant one).
its hard to price these coins, what I saw in the last 4 years at auctions is that there are many buyers for a 500k USD coin, few buyers for a 1+ Million coin and very few buyers for a 4+ Million coin. Its just a lot of money for one coin.
No evidence the pandemic has been a factor at all. There is no shortage of people with the financial capability to buy any coin or collection at current or higher prices. No way to know if it impacts anyone's psychology but it sure hasn't been one in the major asset classes generally. The asset mania which is the source of most "wealth" remains mostly intact.
I do see some evidence of this. Hansen lowered his budget on a coin from $4M to $2M in the early stages of the pandemic and Bruce put his set up for sale. That was early on but even now, some billionaires have companies that are considering laying off 10,000+ employees. Now, it's turned out better than we have hoped in the beginning, and there's certainly enough funds overall, but I wouldn't say there's no factor.
Another factor aside from Covid is certainly that a number of large collectors have left the hobby and haven't necessarily been replaced by the next generation of such collectors.
The 1794 SP 66 PCGS dollar is so special that it’s the kind of item a non coin collector who is wealthy could buy .
I believe. that could easily happen . Or an institution could buy that coin .
Will it happen ? ... I don’t know ...
But the coin is that special.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Your first paragraph is describing psychology, not necessarily a lack of financial capacity. I agreed with this in my last post. I didn't read the entire thread since I am late to it but noticed that Skyman also commented on this subject and better than I did.
Sure, if most of their wealth is in commercial real estate or in a small to medium sized business, it's a factor but otherwise not really generally.
It also depends upon anyone's assumptions on how many collectors there are with this financial capacity, whether they buy at this level or not. It's my assumption that there are more than most collectors believe, but others here may disagree because they have knowledge that I do not.
Your last comment is describing what an illiquid market coins actually are, which I agree with also. This is one of the primary reasons affluent buyers who can otherwise afford more expensive coins choose a cheaper substitute, somewhat lower quality with US coinage.
My point remains that even though a potential buyer may have the resources, if they are a non-collector they may not appreciate the seemingly (well actually was) pump-up of the previous auction and how the coin was a non-seller this go round. They have many alternatives, and perhaps a painting that hangs on the wall may have relatively greater appeal.
And I think it a wonderful coin, out of my price league certainly, but IMO somewhat overvalued.
Well, just Love coins, period.
Thanks for sharing.
What is so special about the $10 M point? Laura reported offering $15 M for the J-1776 - you could have made it $15M+ and had the highest offer for a coin ever. Wouldn't that have more of a psychological effect (i.e. not just the highest auctioned, but the highest offer ever reported)? Isn't that what you were aiming for? If you were just aiming for the highest auction record, why not bid just enough for the record or just above the other rumored bid instead of adding the extra $1.5 M? I'm just curious. It looks like the purpose wasn't merely to blow out the other party, but to make coin history. Sometimes perceptions don't meet reality though.
P.S. Was there any data to back up the $7.5 M evaluation for the other 1794 coin? I assume that was for one of the 66+ coins.
First coin to sell for 8 figures.
Did anyone think the auctioneer closed the auction quickly after the jump bid?
I only watched it once, but it seemed to go faster than I would have thought.
Indeed of course that is the best outcome of all!
But we do love our coins here ... and all the fact and fiction that includes ...
Last sale was $10,016,875.00
It failed to sell here for $7,000,000 plus a 17.5% buyers premium, or $8,225,000.00.
That means the value lies somewhere under that number, a $1,800,000 loss or so, at a minimum.
Top bidder was $5,250,000.00 prior to Laura's $5,500,000.00 and jump bid. That is a $6,168,750.00 bid. Split the difference between that bid and the minimum bid it did not sell for this time, and that's what I would expect is close to its real value, $7,200,000.00 or so.
That is a big hit to take. I doubt we see this coin again for 10-15 years, especially with the optics of it not selling this time around being so... messy. You can maybe try to write it off as being Covid-19 related, but the reality is the ultra-wealthy have money and aren't afraid to step up to buy stuff they think is truly special. The issue here is that numbers asked of this coin require people to step out... not up. Stepping out onto ledges is generally not behavior you're going to see in people who have this kind of money to spend on a coin.
Look at the opportunity cost of purchasing this coin compared to buying SPY or something. SPY opened at $149.13 on 1/23/2013, and opened at $349.59 today. 67,168 shares of SPY at that open price are worth $23,481,261.00. Given my ballpark estimation of the actual value of the coin today, that puts the opportunity cost of acquiring this con at a massive $16,443,000.00 or so. Double what it is worth.
This is why you do not see the younger generation of ultra-wealthy people chasing coins. The returns just are not there when compared to other investment vehicles, even collectable items like artwork or rare cars, which often produce double-digit returns. I firmly believe the ultra-high end coin market (The $1m+ coins) is in trouble at least in the short-term thanks to so many of these high-end collectors selling out, arguably in more trouble than the lower, middle-class portion of the coin market.
"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
Lots to disagree with there, but I'll just hit on one point. It's a mistake to think that there is such a thing as a "real value" on a unique coin. All that exists is historical transaction prices and unknown future transaction prices. And even at the time of a transaction, the price does not equate to value, as the two parties to the transaction likely valued the coin differently.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Not just unique coins. What is the "real value" of any coin? A common, everyday coin can regularly sell for a number of different prices depending on many factors. You may be able to define a realistic range for those prices but there are almost always outliers. And even though those outliers are rare, they're real for the buyer and seller involved.
Getting hung up on what a coin "should" sell for happens a lot. Just keep reading here if you don't believe me.
I agree on everything said here. And exactly this:
Look at the opportunity cost of purchasing this coin compared to buying SPY or something. SPY opened at $149.13 on 1/23/2013, and opened at $349.59 today. 67,168 shares of SPY at that open price are worth $23,481,261.00. Given my ballpark estimation of the actual value of the coin today, that puts the opportunity cost of acquiring this con at a massive $16,443,000.00 or so. Double what it is worth.
Sure, I won't disagree with that, however the fact is that it passed here and the last public sale of this coin was only $506k, granted in 1991. Remember that when Contursi (who paid $2.5m) sold it to Logies/Cardinal, he said that it was an offer he couldn't refuse. I read that as Contursi saying he felt it was an overpayment in a time when cash was more important than the coin.
Cardinal overpaid for it (in rougher market conditions than now!), then Bruce overpaid for it again, in my humble opinion. The failure to sell here is acknowledgement of those overpayments, and resets the market on its value... again, in my humble opinion.
"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
The thing with rare items and value is you need someone to appreciate it the way you do.
Cardinal and Bruce obviously like the history of the coin and story with it which led them to value and cherish the coin as much as they do. To find the next buyer at those levels, you need to find someone that values it the same way or more.
I've done the same thing with a rare sports car. I sold it on consignment and the dealer told me to lower the price given their experience carrying a lot of cars. I told them not to worry and keep the price because I knew there would be another driver that valued it the way I did, much more than the other cars available. It would be special to that person. Sure enough, someone did show up and buy the car. Of course, it was special enough that I still think about the car, wonder where it is now and would love to feel the rush of driving it again.
The wealthy take big losses in real estate all the time. Bruce has taken his coin off the market, so technically he hasn’t suffered a loss. If he feels compelled to sell in the short term, I think it will be through private treaty.
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
Opportunity cost is is a useful concept when contemplating a purchase, and it is based on expected returns, i.e., guesswork. Calculating opportunity cost based on hindsight is usually only useful if you want to torture yourself.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Sure, there's intangible "value" in owning a special coin, but I'd argue that it's factored in adequately when someone calculates what they're willing to bid in actual dollars. Since any "value" outside of actual transaction prices is nebulous and variable, I don't see much use in discussing it. The fact that no one was willing to pay $8.225 million for this coin last week doesn't mean an offer at a higher amount won't surface soon (or hasn't already). But it's fanciful to think it'd me significantly higher. Certainly nowhere in the vicinity of the $23M the owner could have made in the stock market over the holding period. As such, I see @DelawareDoons as being pretty much dead on with his observations.
SPY was $230 6 months ago. What if someone has enough SPY and wants to diversify? What if someone with enough SPY simply wants to own and enjoy the coin? Opportunity costs can go both ways.
My 1866 Philly Mint Set
The bottom line is now only Bruce knows what it is worth! There's a lot to be said for holding power. IMHO he will own it until he gets what he wants for it.....of course way down the road(hopefully) it could be his heirs. All it takes is that 1 person who wants it more than Bruce...and no, just because it was in an auction doesn't mean everyone who might be a player has seen it!
@bidask said:
The 2019 Ultra Wealth Report (data for 2018) estimates over 17,000 with a net worth above $250MM and almost 40,000 with a net worth between $100MM and $250MM.
Considering the line of work you are in, you are probably familiar with this data. How does this reconcile to your post?
Very intresting. I did not know that TDN almost died of covid. Good luck with your recovery.
Good discussion. It is interesting that Bob Simpson view coins as a safe place to put the profits that he made on the risky investments.
My 20th Century Gold Major Design Type Set ---started : 11/17/1997 ---- completed : 1/21/2004
Longterm Growth is the name of the game.
I wasn't arguing that one should never buy expensive coins in favor of owning stocks. In the decade ending in 2010, rare coins handily outperformed SPY. I was simply disagreeing with @MrEureka about the validity of @DelawareDoons 's points. Whether the current relative lack of participants at the highest levels of the coin market is a temporary blip or a secular trend will only be known looking back from the future.