Is the Coin Market on its way up or is it just...........

Desert Moon · October 5, 2020 4:43PM

PCGS3000 up for quite a few months in a row, up 2.6% year to year. Not much, but not the freefall it was for many years.

Or is it only the 'strong for the grade' coins. Example. On Sunday I was bidding on a Barber Quarter P58/CAC. The images were lousy (like most ebay images), the rims could have been black, they could have been a nicer blue, was a crap shoot. But I thought, okay here is a nice coin with a green been. I did my research on prices, and decided that a 35% bid over the published CAC price (higher than the PCGS listed retail price), would blow any bid out of the water and I was likely to get it at somewhere around CAC price. The bid in the last minute was at 72% CAC price. I waited, 10, 9, 8, 7, push the bid button expecting to have the win, just wondering what the price would be. But whack, someone else outbid me, probably with an even more aggressive bid. I was at 61 money, what could have gone wrong?

So is the whole market surging, or is it just the beaned and better for the grade coins that are pushing up the indexes?

Best, SH

coinbuf · October 5, 2020 4:53PM

The rise in metals has lifted the lower end of the market some while the top end has been soaring during the pandemic with no shows, limited auctions, and lots of cash sitting around with nowhere to go. But as usual each case is unique, in your case perhaps a crackout artist saw a possibility, or another everyman collector wanted it more.

ThreeCentSilverFL · October 5, 2020 5:01PM

Yes, it appears to me that the realized prices for higher grade classic U.S. coins in the major auction houses is on the uptrend.

cameonut2011 · October 5, 2020 5:29PM

It still feels really choppy to me. I hope we finally hit bottom.

RYK · October 5, 2020 6:03PM

The coin market is quadrifurcated.

Dreck is lagging badly. Decent, common stuff is stable to slightly declining. Better classic issues in PCGS holders with CAC approval are trending up. Major rarities and registry darlings are soaring.

MFeld · October 5, 2020 6:30PM

@RYK said:
The coin market is quadrifurcated.

Robert, please watch your language!

cameonut2011 · October 5, 2020 7:03PM

@spacehayduke said:
So is the whole market surging, or is it just the beaned and better for the grade coins that are pushing up the indexes?

CAC coins are not immune. With that said, I do think select PCGS CAC coins are the ones that are increasing a bit even though many are still off from 10 year highs. Top pops in better series and truly fresh, rare, and original better pieces appear to be doing well with some exceptions (e.g. early copper).

Jimnight · October 5, 2020 7:57PM

Hard to tell at this point in time.

291fifth · October 5, 2020 8:25PM

The government money that has blunted some of the potential financial problems of the early Covid19 era is now running out. Expect to see widespread PERMANENT layoffs increase sharply in the coming months. In addition, a change in the balance of power in the White House and Congress could trigger higher taxes on the wealthy. As the money starts to dry up so will the willingness of collectors to "stretch" for coins. Irrational exuberance may go out of style when it comes to collectibles of all kinds.

winesteven · October 5, 2020 9:36PM

While there are many exceptions, I seem to see many coins at VARIOUS PRICE POINTS with nice eye appeal and meriting CAC’s doing nicely and moving up a bit in price. I agree with @cameonut2011 that these recent higher prices are not at all time highs, but they’re moving up in price. Nice coins but without CAC’s appear to still be dropping, based on what I see on GC and HA. Not a scientific analysis, but just my sense.

Steve

Coinscratch · October 5, 2020 9:43PM

@291fifth said:
The government money that has blunted some of the potential financial problems of the early Covid19 era is now running out. Expect to see widespread PERMANENT layoffs increase sharply in the coming months. In addition, a change in the balance of power in the White House and Congress could trigger higher taxes on the wealthy. As the money starts to dry up so will the willingness of collectors to "stretch" for coins. Irrational exuberance may go out of style when it comes to collectibles of all kinds.

You mean would not could and a change is highly unlikely. Bigly. Not even close.

cameonut2011 · October 5, 2020 9:50PM

Also, not to make this a CAC thread, but it does show great utility of having CAC verification. JA/CAC as market makers set a price floor for CACed coins which helps shield somewhat from falling on the proverbial knife.

winesteven · October 5, 2020 9:56PM

@291fifth said:
The government money that has blunted some of the potential financial problems of the early Covid19 era is now running out. Expect to see widespread PERMANENT layoffs increase sharply in the coming months. In addition, a change in the balance of power in the White House and Congress could trigger higher taxes on the wealthy. As the money starts to dry up so will the willingness of collectors to "stretch" for coins. Irrational exuberance may go out of style when it comes to collectibles of all kinds.

While I’m not saying I disagree with @291fifth ’s conclusion, we all read MANY predictions in March and April on this forum how price drops would accelerate due to Covid, no shows, bidders not seeing coins live at auctions, etc. Yet here we are, and many of us see a steady, if not slightly increasing market. I’m not talking about coins whose values are tied significantly to bullion - of course those coins are up substantially. But we see “Collector” coins with CAC’s doing OK.

cameonut2011 · October 5, 2020 10:17PM

@winesteven said:

@291fifth said:
The government money that has blunted some of the potential financial problems of the early Covid19 era is now running out. Expect to see widespread PERMANENT layoffs increase sharply in the coming months. In addition, a change in the balance of power in the White House and Congress could trigger higher taxes on the wealthy. As the money starts to dry up so will the willingness of collectors to "stretch" for coins. Irrational exuberance may go out of style when it comes to collectibles of all kinds.

While I’m not saying I disagree with @291fifth ’s conclusion, we all read MANY predictions in March and April on this forum how price drops would accelerate due to Covid, no shows, bidders not seeing coins live at auctions, etc. Yet here we are, and many of us see a steady, if not slightly increasing market. I’m not talking about coins whose values are tied significantly to bullion - of course those coins are up substantially. But we see “Collector” coins with CAC’s doing OK.

But what about the ultra rare Pogue 1854-S $5 PCGS AU58 CAC that sold for less than a NGC XF45 non-CAC from the year prior? It shows that Covid could be a major determinant in coin pricing.

badger · October 5, 2020 10:28PM

Agree with RYK that the market is fragmented. Moderns are dead. And that is backing up into the post-WWII silver coins. Classics seem to be doing ok since depends more on true rarity than grade rarity on high mintages. And the whales don't care atm. Registry was great for coin prices and activity. But many registries are completing or are full of lower level coins and are at the financial limits of the owners. Super whales seem to be trying to be #1 in every category which is a bummer. Can't compete which was the fun in the registry.

So what would drive the market up? Not a lot of fresh meat entering the 'hobby'. No one else in my extended family collects nor intends to start. My collections would have gone to estate then immediately to Heritage. More than a few of us are reaching termination. So who buys the coins? Transitions from collectors to resellers. And when resellers get saturated they are just trading troubles among each other. Market would not be stable at that point.

And have to mention the auction houses. I like Heritage and they have been great for me in getting good results. But overall, the skim that the auction houses take just drains the industry. Like a casino taking a skim off each pot, eventually the table is out of cash. And if players want to keep going they have to reach in their pockets.

Finally, if Biden wins all bets are off. Progressives already said they are willing to tax cash and cash flow. They focus on the 401k but is only a step from taxing other forms of wealth. I see a run on mattresses with hidden pockets. And the socialists frown on any differentiation. They want things to be 'fair' and equal. So if you have nice collectibles, they will not encourage others to work hard and profit. Redistribution instead. And the whales would start caring. And if the whales catch a cold, the rest of us catch pneumonia.

So, I like precious metals. Gold is not going up as much as the currency is weakening. And that is not going to stop due to Federal spending. Am mostly out of registry except for toner Jeffs that I still do for fun. But have only about 2% of the value in registry now compared to the peak. Just my take on the coin market. But I enjoyed the game.

amwldcoin · October 6, 2020 5:13AM

I wish I could have bought some of my nice Barber Halves at those levels. People wonder why my prices are high. Youse guys made me do it making me sometimes pay 3 times or more than price guide to get the coins I wanted! My record price paid is somewhere between 7 + 8 times price guide.

@spacehayduke said:
PCGS3000 up for quite a few months in a row, up 2.6% year to year. Not much, but not the freefall it was for many years.

Or is it only the 'strong for the grade' coins. Example. On Sunday I was bidding on a Barber Quarter P58/CAC. The images were lousy (like most ebay images), the rims could have been black, they could have been a nicer blue, was a crap shoot. But I thought, okay here is a nice coin with a green been. I did my research on prices, and decided that a 35% bid over the published CAC price (higher than the PCGS listed retail price), would blow any bid out of the water and I was likely to get it at somewhere around CAC price. The bid in the last minute was at 72% CAC price. I waited, 10, 9, 8, 7, push the bid button expecting to have the win, just wondering what the price would be. But whack, someone else outbid me, probably with an even more aggressive bid. I was at 61 money, what could have gone wrong?

So is the whole market surging, or is it just the beaned and better for the grade coins that are pushing up the indexes?

Best, SH

amwldcoin · October 6, 2020 5:15AM

Hmmmm, very few of mine have CAC stickers! See my previous post.

@winesteven said:
While there are many exceptions, I seem to see many coins at VARIOUS PRICE POINTS with nice eye appeal and meriting CAC’s doing nicely and moving up a bit in price. I agree with @cameonut2011 that these recent higher prices are not at all time highs, but they’re moving up in price. Nice coins but without CAC’s appear to still be dropping, based on what I see on GC and HA. Not a scientific analysis, but just my sense.

Steve

ricko · October 6, 2020 5:58AM

I am not buying many coins these days ... but there are no deals available on the select few that I would purchase. Oh well... The right coin, at the right price, will come along... Cheers, RickO

Boosibri · October 6, 2020 6:24AM

@291fifth said:
The government money that has blunted some of the potential financial problems of the early Covid19 era is now running out. Expect to see widespread PERMANENT layoffs increase sharply in the coming months. In addition, a change in the balance of power in the White House and Congress could trigger higher taxes on the wealthy. As the money starts to dry up so will the willingness of collectors to "stretch" for coins. Irrational exuberance may go out of style when it comes to collectibles of all kinds.

I met with one of the Bank of America top economists yesterday and discussed the "K" shaped recovery emerging. The wealthy continue to do better, the Fed is backing the market and will likely continue to do so regardless of who is president, there is a shortage of manufacturing jobs despite a surplus in available workers stemming from job losses in the service sector.

So long as money is cheap collectibles will do well.

Cougar1978 · October 6, 2020 7:23AM

The recent upsurge in metals pushed many issues up especially US & World bullion coins and retail was strong for this material until metals started recent decline. Many other coins continue to trade at their basal values.

For US Coins the market has been lackluster vs it’s heyday for sometime (PCGS 3000). The graph says it all. Coins that are truly rare high demand or exceptionally PQ have done well with the collector base (shrinking?).

Currency has been weaker than coins but some good sales in these areas, especially world.

US Coins are perhaps fully priced at this time in my view. Of course really big ticket material especially if stickered has its own market among the registry hobbyists and the very well off.

Many concur single digit and double digit slabbed world coins (19th & early 20th century) being sought after by many players many issues I have acquired for what it would cost 2 people go out to dinner or less. Ditto on slabbed currency. Slabbed world gold seeing demand also. Many low pop. Some of my slabbed issues from the Nordic Gold Hoard did well (strong sales) last several months.

Irregardless it all adds up whether a $ or $10,000. During pandemic enjoying (buying a few here and there) my binder of collector coins in 20 coin (2x2) pages (too cheap spend money on to slab) .

Monitor the PCGS 3000 and metals prices. You can bookmark fav issues / areas on your apps.
Focus on your area understanding market pricing and dynamics.
CU (CF), PCGS, inventory manager, kitco, and CPG great phone apps.
Seek out unbiased market analysis sources. I always liked the NN coin market recap (Richard).

neildrobertson · October 6, 2020 10:04AM

There is definitely some scarcity caused by the interruptions in the normal flow of coins due to Covid. There appears to be renewed interest in collecting while some other outlets for entertainment are closed. Both of those factors are driving the prices of the coins that do sell up (or maybe less down). Both of those factors are transient and will change once the Covid situation changes.

I'm hoping the recent surge erases some folks memories of the declines over the past several years and will drive more folks to sell.

I personally have seen an uptick in opportunistic buying and selling over the last 6 months from collectors and amateur dealers trying to flip coins for profit. There have been at least a dozen coins that I have lost on at auction as the under bidder (at a very strong price), and then seen the coin listed for sale again immediately afterwards. From my point of view, it appears to be a little bit of uninformed risk-taking behavior akin to what I see when co-workers day trade TSLA.

vplite99 · October 6, 2020 10:20AM

I am finding that eBay auctions cannot always be trusted to show a reasonable price. Many bidders have promotional or regular cash back (to spend or earn) and therefore are either bidding with "free money" or money that is worth less, because it can only be spent this month on eBay. It is difficult to judge this on coins, since each one is unique.

However this is evidenced by some auctions I've been in for popular electronic items, which are mass produced. Used items sometimes go for more than the item could be purchased for new!

Crazy, unless you factor in "free money".

MrEureka · October 6, 2020 10:34AM

Prices for most rare coins are generally trending higher across the globe. More so in the past few months, I think, but the trend has been in place for many years. It's my belief that the long term decline we have seen in some parts of the US coin market have been mostly driven by what I would describe as a return to sanity. In other words, unrealistic prices on certain types of coins have come back to earth. I also think that this is a very healthy and necessary thing for the market, and that we're far from done. Of course, we all have our opinions of what coins "should" be worth, and what is "unrealistic", so I don't expect us all to agree about this. Just my two cents, but I like what I see.

johnny9434 · October 6, 2020 10:41AM

@RYK said:
The coin market is quadrifurcated.

Dreck is lagging badly. Decent, common stuff is stable to slightly declining. Better classic issues in PCGS holders with CAC approval are trending up. Major rarities and registry darlings are soaring.

Chaldean Numerology

The numerical value of quadrifurcated in Chaldean Numerology is: 3

Pythagorean Numerology

The numerical value of quadrifurcated in Pythagorean Numerology is: 4

for future referance

cameonut2011 · October 6, 2020 11:39AM

@amwldcoin said:
I wish I could have bought some of my nice Barber Halves at those levels. People wonder why my prices are high. Youse guys made me do it making me sometimes pay 3 times or more than price guide to get the coins I wanted! My record price paid is somewhere between 7 + 8 times price guide.

@spacehayduke said:
PCGS3000 up for quite a few months in a row, up 2.6% year to year. Not much, but not the freefall it was for many years.

Or is it only the 'strong for the grade' coins. Example. On Sunday I was bidding on a Barber Quarter P58/CAC. The images were lousy (like most ebay images), the rims could have been black, they could have been a nicer blue, was a crap shoot. But I thought, okay here is a nice coin with a green been. I did my research on prices, and decided that a 35% bid over the published CAC price (higher than the PCGS listed retail price), would blow any bid out of the water and I was likely to get it at somewhere around CAC price. The bid in the last minute was at 72% CAC price. I waited, 10, 9, 8, 7, push the bid button expecting to have the win, just wondering what the price would be. But whack, someone else outbid me, probably with an even more aggressive bid. I was at 61 money, what could have gone wrong?

So is the whole market surging, or is it just the beaned and better for the grade coins that are pushing up the indexes?

Best, SH

We need context for these statements to mean anything. On a cheap coin, 2-3x price guide may be trivial. On a mid five figure or six figure coin not so much (as least to most of us).

ironmanl63 · October 6, 2020 11:46AM

I think that coins in general are doing well. Sticker or not! I like the prices I am getting for coins I sell. I am having a hard time finding coins at a price I would like to pay. Thus my feelings that coins are doing well. Not scientific just an overall feeling.

mothra454 · October 6, 2020 12:04PM

I know the answer, but I'm not telling you guys....

If you believe the PCGS price guide, look at early Morgan dollar prices. It looks like a Christmas tree farm there are so many green arrows pointing up. If you don't believe it, then this message will self destruct in 10....9....8.....

ctf_error_coins · October 6, 2020 1:57PM

I see a strong online market for exceptional and unique coinage.

fathom · October 6, 2020 3:55PM

There is a ways to go before we see a "rising tide lifts all boats" climate.

Still a tremendous opportunity with YouTube and all the social media for a large stakeholder such as our host to aggressively seed demand. If collectible watches can explode in popularity and price than US classic rare coins can as well.

The marketplace and participants are maturing rapidly. I can see the pendulum swing back to interest in our history and economics. The problems out there are not insurmountable, With excellent leadership and a vision we can get younger people interested in our ideals and values and how that relates to history and numismatics.

bidask · October 6, 2020 5:22PM

@Boosibri said:

@291fifth said:
The government money that has blunted some of the potential financial problems of the early Covid19 era is now running out. Expect to see widespread PERMANENT layoffs increase sharply in the coming months. In addition, a change in the balance of power in the White House and Congress could trigger higher taxes on the wealthy. As the money starts to dry up so will the willingness of collectors to "stretch" for coins. Irrational exuberance may go out of style when it comes to collectibles of all kinds.

I met with one of the Bank of America top economists yesterday and discussed the "K" shaped recovery emerging. The wealthy continue to do better, the Fed is backing the market and will likely continue to do so regardless of who is president, there is a shortage of manufacturing jobs despite a surplus in available workers stemming from job losses in the service sector.

So long as money is cheap collectibles will do well.

Boosibri
You should meet with me !😊

amwldcoin · October 6, 2020 6:52PM

How about $5-600 PG selling for right at $4K? While I didn't buy this 1 in auction, I was happy to get it at the time....$2500 PG and paid $13,500.

@cameonut2011 said:

@amwldcoin said:
I wish I could have bought some of my nice Barber Halves at those levels. People wonder why my prices are high. Youse guys made me do it making me sometimes pay 3 times or more than price guide to get the coins I wanted! My record price paid is somewhere between 7 + 8 times price guide.

@spacehayduke said:
PCGS3000 up for quite a few months in a row, up 2.6% year to year. Not much, but not the freefall it was for many years.

Or is it only the 'strong for the grade' coins. Example. On Sunday I was bidding on a Barber Quarter P58/CAC. The images were lousy (like most ebay images), the rims could have been black, they could have been a nicer blue, was a crap shoot. But I thought, okay here is a nice coin with a green been. I did my research on prices, and decided that a 35% bid over the published CAC price (higher than the PCGS listed retail price), would blow any bid out of the water and I was likely to get it at somewhere around CAC price. The bid in the last minute was at 72% CAC price. I waited, 10, 9, 8, 7, push the bid button expecting to have the win, just wondering what the price would be. But whack, someone else outbid me, probably with an even more aggressive bid. I was at 61 money, what could have gone wrong?

So is the whole market surging, or is it just the beaned and better for the grade coins that are pushing up the indexes?

Best, SH

We need context for these statements to mean anything. On a cheap coin, 2-3x price guide may be trivial. On a mid five figure or six figure coin not so much (as least to most of us).

KSorbo · October 6, 2020 7:04PM

I collect certified US classic coins as well as some certified world coins, mostly in the $100 to $500 range. Based on completed EBay and Heritage auctions I’ve seen a noticeable uptick in pricing for this material. Not to mention recent auctions that I’ve lost after putting in strong bids. Also I enjoy certified large size US currency which is increasing in price perhaps even more. I can’t speak for moderns but would think that lack of scarcity would keep prices down.

Desert Moon · October 7, 2020 5:18AM

@KSorbo said:
I collect certified US classic coins as well as some certified world coins, mostly in the $100 to $500 range. Based on completed EBay and Heritage auctions I’ve seen a noticeable uptick in pricing for this material. Not to mention recent auctions that I’ve lost after putting in strong bids. Also I enjoy certified large size US currency which is increasing in price perhaps even more. I can’t speak for moderns but would think that lack of scarcity would keep prices down.

So maybe this upswing in the PCGS3000 is a true reflection of the optimism out there. Let's see if it can be sustained after everyone is back to work and there is less time to sit on the internet.....

Best, SH

Is the Coin Market on its way up or is it just...........

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