@CenteredMantles said:
Very reminiscent of the 2016 run this card took. My feeling is this is the peak and there will be a pull back on this just like the last run. Seems to be the track record for this card. Major rush up in price, hits number where many feel it is not sustainable, prices drop and reset a little higher than where they were at the start of the push. Rinse and repeat in a couple of years.
The Jordan market also tends to attract the most manipulation so big spikes like this on a widely available card will always bring a lot of skepticism. Even as a huge Jordan fan and collector I have debated moving my PSA 9 Fleer at these current prices.
Totally disagree.. I guess Jordan's card will be dropping back down to 10 K again...Wrong
@rmilin said:
The Jordan card is like the Mantle card its in a class by itself so its always going to move on a upward trend but that means it is not immune to speculators and manipulators both will increase the price of the card but just temporally price increases that are because of speculation and manipulation always burst sooner or later and it has nothing to do with cards its a economic issue.
Yep...sure...Jordan's card is going back down to 10K...Wrong
I guess certain people can't see the forest for the trees...really blind and no vision. I'll make a bet with any of you that 5 years from now Jordan's card will be higher than it is today which will raise the level for all his other cards too.
It should not come as a newsflash to anyone that even Babe Ruths and Mantles can be subject to price manipulation— as can Jordans. In fact, the better/healthier/more robust the underpinning drivers of a card, the more likely the manipulation is to stick or take. That is why athletes with big collector bases or specific cards that are especially iconic to certain eras, and thus have a big fan base, are ripe targets for manipulation. For the manipulation to "take," people need to see prices rising and think, "Sure, this card has very good reason to rise, so I better grab one now before it really takes off." The old FOMO, or fear of missing out.
In other words, a card can both be very, very worthy of steady appreciation over time— such as a Jordan Fleer RC— and also be manipulated. We should acknowledge that these are not mutually exclusive dynamics, which is what makes the situation so murky and tricky. In fact, again, the more a card has going for it intrinsically, the more the manipulation can act as an artificial accelerant, so to speak.
So, yes, the Jordan card can certainly be priced higher in five years than it is today, and yet that would not at all preclude that price level from having been the byproduct (albeit to an unquantifiable extent) of scamming in a Wild West unregulated marketplace.
The bottom line is that our hobby is an unregulated market that is rife and riddled with the machinations of the unscrupulous, be it a fake sale or a trimmed edge or worked corner. All we as collectors/buyers can do is research as best we can, and pay a price with which we are comfortable for the pieces we want to enjoy.
For example, I recently was in the market for a particular Ruth card. I was looking at an example in a given grade, and I noticed that the card historically trended in a certain range in that grade— then, fairly recently, it took an upward spike. A few sales in a row were really above the prior range. Now, is this the new normal? Was this an attempt at manipulation? Was this a few exceptional examples of eye appeal being sold in a row? I needed to dig in. I found I preferred to find an example one grade above or below the specimen in question, as there was more consistency in the pricing at those surrounding grades.
@DM23HOF said:
It should not come as a newsflash to anyone that even Babe Ruths and Mantles can be subject to price manipulation— as can Jordans. In fact, the better/healthier/more robust the underpinning drivers of a card, the more likely the manipulation is to stick or take. That is why athletes with big collector bases or specific cards that are especially iconic to certain eras, and thus have a big fan base, are ripe targets for manipulation. For the manipulation to "take," people need to see prices rising and think, "Sure, this card has very good reason to rise, so I better grab one now before it really takes off." The old FOMO, or fear of missing out.
In other words, a card can both be very, very worthy of steady appreciation over time— such as a Jordan Fleer RC— and also be manipulated. We should acknowledge that these are not mutually exclusive dynamics, which is what makes the situation so murky and tricky. In fact, again, the more a card has going for it intrinsically, the more the manipulation can act as an artificial accelerant, so to speak.
So, yes, the Jordan card can certainly be priced higher in five years than it is today, and yet that would not at all preclude that price level from having been the byproduct (albeit to an unquantifiable extent) of scamming in a Wild West unregulated marketplace.
The bottom line is that our hobby is an unregulated market that is rife and riddled with the machinations of the unscrupulous, be it a fake sale or a trimmed edge or worked corner. All we as collectors/buyers can do is research as best we can, and pay a price with which we are comfortable for the pieces we want to enjoy.
For example, I recently was in the market for a particular Ruth card. I was looking at an example in a given grade, and I noticed that the card historically trended in a certain range in that grade— then, fairly recently, it took an upward spike. A few sales in a row were really above the prior range. Now, is this the new normal? Was this an attempt at manipulation? Was this a few exceptional examples of eye appeal being sold in a row? I needed to dig in. I found I preferred to find an example one grade above or below the specimen in question, as there was more consistency in the pricing at those surrounding grades.
Ok whoever DM23HOF is... here is the bottom line for you ...you're goin' up against the Chaz now...so guess what? WHO CARES ABOUT MANIPULATION ??? How's that?? Bottom Line is that prices over the long term are going up no matter what the SUPPLY or MANIPULATION is. Where does the Ryan rookie (there are thousands graded) pricing stand right now vs 10 or 20 years ago??? It's all about the PLAYER and the DEMAND for that PLAYER. In this case, it just happens to be the Greatest Basketball Player whoever laced up a pair of sneakers. It is simple and basic economics.
I don't really see how I am "goin' up against" someone by attempting to have a collegial discussion about sportscards online during a pandemic quarantine, but nonetheless I'll try.
"WHO CARES ABOUT MANIPULATION ???" (the liberal use of caps and question marks are not mine)
I think any of us collector/buyers out there should be wary of manipulation, as it is an affront to us all. Saying "who cares" about something as nefarious as manipulation is pretty wild. I would venture many hobbyists care.
"Bottom Line is that prices over the long term are going up"
I agree. Prices of certain cards can and will ascend over time— but it is important to note that manipulation can act as an artificial accelerant or intensifier to the pace or height of the price increase. An increase that is steady over time is one thing, versus a huge increase in a very, very short time encompassing examples of varying eye appeal. Outlier cards with extreme eye appeal for their grades do routinely and deservedly create short term spike data points. Due to fraudulent tactics in the market, we can never truly know how much a given price point is due to the ingredient of manipulation, which is admittedly one active ingredient of several. Demand and the player are two other key ingredients, for sure.
"In this case, it just happens to be the Greatest Basketball Player whoever laced up a pair of sneakers."
I agree. Jordan is the greatest basketball player ever. And again, I agree that his cards can and would/should increase over time. But to what height and at what pace is the issue at hand. Are we all really to believe that a simple documentary combined with idle time on collectors' hands could take a card on such a fast, high ride? Certainly possible. But equally possible is some well-timed manipulation and sales that never truly were. The truth is most likely a confluence of all factors.
@DM23HOF said:
I don't really see how I am "goin' up against" someone by attempting to have a collegial discussion about sportscards online during a pandemic quarantine, but nonetheless I'll try.
"WHO CARES ABOUT MANIPULATION ???" (the liberal use of caps and question marks are not mine)
I think any of us collector/buyers out there should be wary of manipulation, as it is an affront to us all. Saying "who cares" about something as nefarious as manipulation is pretty wild. I would venture many hobbyists care.
"Bottom Line is that prices over the long term are going up"
I agree. Prices of certain cards can and will ascend over time— but it is important to note that manipulation can act as an artificial accelerant or intensifier to the pace or height of the price increase. An increase that is steady over time is one thing, versus a huge increase in a very, very short time encompassing examples of varying eye appeal. Outlier cards with extreme eye appeal for their grades do routinely and deservedly create short term spike data points. Due to fraudulent tactics in the market, we can never truly know how much a given price point is due to the ingredient of manipulation, which is admittedly one active ingredient of several. Demand and the player are two other key ingredients, for sure.
"In this case, it just happens to be the Greatest Basketball Player whoever laced up a pair of sneakers."
I agree. Jordan is the greatest basketball player ever. And again, I agree that his cards can and would/should increase over time. But to what height and at what pace is the issue at hand. Are we all really to believe that a simple documentary combined with idle time on collectors' hands could take a card on such a fast, high ride? Certainly possible. But equally possible is some well-timed manipulation and sales that never truly were. The truth is most likely a confluence of all factors.
It's not about manipulation or someone's impulse to buy so a certain predictable upward movement in a card suits you. It is what it is. Manipulation takes place in the stock market so are they shutting down the stock market because of manipulation? No. It's all about DEMAND and the PLAYER so if you call that manipulation when the price goes up and down then again if you are uncomfortable about it guess what.... I say it's basic ebb and flow of the market. My point is that it does not matter how the price (someone's impulse to buy or sell) get's to where it is...it's about how much someone will pay or not pay for the card. Besides that you have to have proof that manipulation is taking place. Guys bitch and moan about manipulation back in 2016...well where is the proof? It's speculation that there are phony ebay sales so without the proof, you are speculating..... Say if the prices for Jordan cards keep rising which I believe they will and they don't come back down like a pump and dump....then what???
OMG I guess I wasn't hitting refresh the other night when this went off. $24,601
For some reason I thought it went for a little more than 16k. This is a beautiful copy.
More manipulation I guess....give me a break. MJ was the greatest that ever lived and you're seeing reality. That card will be 50K+ all day long pretty soon and these prices today will seem cheap.
OMG I guess I wasn't hitting refresh the other night when this went off. $24,601
For some reason I thought it went for a little more than 16k. This is a beautiful copy.
More manipulation I guess....give me a break. MJ was the greatest that ever lived and you're seeing reality. That card will be 50K+ all day long pretty soon and these prices today will seem cheap.
chaz
I highlighted this when it was first listed. This is a 10 all day every day. A true stud card.
Interesting debate.
If only I could go back in time...4, 6, 8, 10 years and kick myself in the arse after every time I said:
"Gee, I'll wait til {insert card here} is cheaper next year"
Doesn't happen. Not the good ones at least. Sometimes you get lucky timing the market.
I do remember the Jordan having a pullback after a big run-up a few years ago.
@emar said:
Interesting debate.
If only I could go back in time...4, 6, 8, 10 years and kick myself in the arse after every time I said:
"Gee, I'll wait til {insert card here} is cheaper next year"
Doesn't happen. Not the good ones at least. Sometimes you get lucky timing the market.
I do remember the Jordan having a pullback after a big run-up a few years ago.
Yes and guess what?? How many "run ups" and then "pull backs" you guys gonna have before the "pull back" value of his card is $100k+ and his sticker card is $50K+ and all his other cards are all up triple and quadruple after a "pull back" before you guys wake up????
Betting against Jordan is like betting against America and in the words of the great multi-billionaire investor Warren Buffet "Betting against America is bad bet."
So there you have it. Hope this get's through your thick heads but I doubt it....
Buffet IS betting against America right now, at least in the short term. He is sitting on 130 billion in cash. He thinks asset values will continue to fall and he will be looking for value.
Now don’t go all crazy on me Chaz, but you brought up Buffet and Buffet would think we are nuts to invest in anything that doesn’t pay a dividend for one, and he sure wouldn’t be buying anything that had doubled in a few months.
@80sOPC said:
Buffet IS betting against America right now, at least in the short term. He is sitting on 130 billion in cash. He thinks asset values will continue to fall and he will be looking for value.
Now don’t go all crazy on me Chaz, but you brought up Buffet and Buffet would think we are nuts to invest in anything that doesn’t pay a dividend for one, and he sure wouldn’t be buying anything that had doubled in a few months.
First of all Buffett is waiting to make some buys at the right price ( I know all about his 130 billion and he may already have purchased some new stocks except for airplane stocks!). Buffett I believe, never bets "against" America ...he just waits. So what your telling me is that prices will go back down to where they were and steadily move up so all you guys are happy right? Well guess what....price action doesn't always move that way. Sure, "be greedy when others' are fearful and be fearful when others' are greedy", I know all about that but believe it or not... I feel this is a good time to buy early Jordan product like his unopened Fleer wax boxes 87' (may be out of reach for most) 88' Fleer, 89' fleer and 90' Fleer wax and rack boxes also 92' Topps Stadium Club Series 2 wax boxes with Beam Team Jordan & Shaq Rookie. I believe these are relatively inexpensive overall and because of demand disguised as "manipulation" will continue to increase over time. Oh BTW, show me the "proof on manipulation" because if you can that's not cool. I still feel basic demand for Jordan cards will outlast any manipulation over time anyway.
@mrvgex said:
Chaz,
The difference between manipulation of the stock market and the sports card market is that if you are caught manipulating stocks, you’ll go to prison. That makes manipulating the card market infinitely more attractive to crooks, because nothing will happen to them. Hell, even eBay won’t kick them off the site, because they’re not in business to be the police. It does make sense to view the recent run up in the sales prices of cards with a certain amount of skepticism, because you literally can’t believe everything you read, and now it’s more like 5% truth, 95% bs.
I don't agree. You tell me money managers in the stock market don't buy a ton of shares driving up the price or shorting a ton of stock which drives it down....it's done all the time and it's unfortunate but that's the way it is. They use the RSI, MACD, Bollanger Bands etc. and they do it over and over.... it's the way of the market I guess. Regarding cards, I don't see anyone taking my bet that Jordan's main card(86' Fleer) and his sticker (86' Fleer) won't be higher in 5 years....even with the combination of manipulation & market demand, this combination along with other factors will continue to drive prices upward. Guys don't get it....we're talking about the Babe Ruth of Basketball.
Don't bet against America and don't bet against Jordan.
I don't think anyone is debating that the value of Jordan cards won't increase over time. That is pretty much a generally accepted fact. Nor does anyone debate his legacy or the demand for his cards and memorabilia.
The issue many have is seeing a card that has been readily available at a certain price take a massive jump in a short period time knowing full well that the hobby attracts price manipulation and shady behavior. The numbers posted above show the rapid rise and pull back many of us mentioned. Couple that with mass produced base cards seeing similar meteoric rises and recent hobby history and people are right to be cautious.
I love MJ, I have a what I feel is a pretty nice collection of his that I have happily put a fair amount of money into. I don't expect any of it to go down in value but am skeptical of the current value when I see them going crazy like this. I don't sell collection items unless hunting for something bigger but these prices have made it tempting, even as a self proclaimed MJ fanatic. Fortunately I am too lazy to list, ship and ultimately sop for replacements lol.
@CenteredMantles said:
I don't think anyone is debating that the value of Jordan cards won't increase over time. That is pretty much a generally accepted fact. Nor does anyone debate his legacy or the demand for his cards and memorabilia.
The issue many have is seeing a card that has been readily available at a certain price take a massive jump in a short period time knowing full well that the hobby attracts price manipulation and shady behavior. The numbers posted above show the rapid rise and pull back many of us mentioned. Couple that with mass produced base cards seeing similar meteoric rises and recent hobby history and people are right to be cautious.
I love MJ, I have a what I feel is a pretty nice collection of his that I have happily put a fair amount of money into. I don't expect any of it to go down in value but am skeptical of the current value when I see them going crazy like this. I don't sell collection items unless hunting for something bigger but these prices have made it tempting, even as a self proclaimed MJ fanatic. Fortunately I am too lazy to list, ship and ultimately sop for replacements lol.
You really don't get it...this pump & dump has been going on for YEARS. The base value of his cards have been steadily increasing for years so buy during or after the dump. Hold during the pump. Mr. Buffett ...when do you sell a stock? "Never" (except airline stocks!).
@KingBen said:
Chaz... the question is, how many Jordan 86 Fleers do you have? And how many Jordan cards in genera do you own?
No, the question is "Do you GET what I am trying to say to you?" That's the real question here. Answer that....
Unfortunately I sold my all my graded Jordan's years ago. It's still very painful. I lost a ton of money because I sold during the dump...lesson well learned. Just trying to help you guys out by not being "scared" like I was by letting great Jordan PSA 10 cards go when I could have sold other things instead.
If you accept the pump and dump has been happening for years and even put up numbers proving that then what exactly don't I get? Whether the current run was fueled in part by some price manipulation is irrelevant, the current peak prices will pull back. Higher than they were, lower than they currently are. It's a trend Jimmy Buffett can see, doesn't take Warren to tell you what is going on.
I buy MJ at all times, my focus is no longer on his Fleer cards as I own them already and don't care to own duplicates. I personally don't look at Jordan as a stock to buy and sell, just as an athlete i love to collect so these price runs don't really concern or impact me. Just find it an interesting topic and even as someone that could potentially benefit from the manipulation and feeding frenzy, like to partake in the discussion with open eyes.
Chaz why is this so personal for you. Calling people names, we are all a bunch of morons if we think the card is overpriced today. Relax man, its just a hobby
And can you at least concede that if the card has a good long term future - which I agree with - then its better to buy it at 30k then 50k? You are arguing that its a good buy at 50k today when the history on this card shows it will be available for 30-40k in the next few years. It ALWAYS corrects after hitting a new high. The fact that is might be worth 70k in 10 years is immaterial to if it is a good buy today. If your investing style is “who care what it costs today, it will be worth more in the future” then I’m out on this, we have a different understanding on the concept of value.
Bottom line your performance on this thread is a PSA 2 MK. Would not submit.
@CenteredMantles said:
If you accept the pump and dump has been happening for years and even put up numbers proving that then what exactly don't I get? Whether the current run was fueled in part by some price manipulation is irrelevant, the current peak prices will pull back. Higher than they were, lower than they currently are. It's a trend Jimmy Buffett can see, doesn't take Warren to tell you what is going on.
I buy MJ at all times, my focus is no longer on his Fleer cards as I own them already and don't care to own duplicates. I personally don't look at Jordan as a stock to buy and sell, just as an athlete i love to collect so these price runs don't really concern or impact me. Just find it an interesting topic and even as someone that could potentially benefit from the manipulation and feeding frenzy, like to partake in the discussion with open eyes.
You'd be surprised at what people don't get. I explained the pump & dump and some people will still be "cautious". Well, if you are cautious then buy the dip (dump) because if you don't buy something, the ship will leave without you.
Sadly I am older than dirt and remember when Fleer first released these. Does anyone have a price record of these cards and the wax packs since their release? I am particular interested in what these were worth between 1987-1993 as far as the Jordan rookies, stickers, and packs/boxes/cases went for - because frankly I forget.
@halfcentman said:
Sadly I am older than dirt and remember when Fleer first released these. Does anyone have a price record of these cards and the wax packs since their release? I am particular interested in what these were worth between 1987-1993 as far as the Jordan rookies, stickers, and packs/boxes/cases went for - because frankly I forget.
@80sOPC said:
Chaz why is this so personal for you. Calling people names, we are all a bunch of morons if we think the card is overpriced today. Relax man, its just a hobby
And can you at least concede that if the card has a good long term future - which I agree with - then its better to buy it at 30k then 50k? You are arguing that its a good buy at 50k today when the history on this card shows it will be available for 30-40k in the next few years. It ALWAYS corrects after hitting a new high. The fact that is might be worth 70k in 10 years is immaterial to if it is a good buy today. If your investing style is “who care what it costs today, it will be worth more in the future” then I’m out on this, we have a different understanding on the concept of value.
Bottom line your performance on this thread is a PSA 2 MK. Would not submit.
PSA 2 MK.......that's brutal and unfair. Never got one of those back Thank God...it would ruin my week!
It's not personal at all... I am passionate and just trying to help guys out with understanding the market when it comes to Jordan. I am trying reduce their anxiety that I went through when his cards take a dip. That's all.
@CenteredMantles said:
I don't think anyone is debating that the value of Jordan cards won't increase over time. That is pretty much a generally accepted fact. Nor does anyone debate his legacy or the demand for his cards and memorabilia.
The issue many have is seeing a card that has been readily available at a certain price take a massive jump in a short period time knowing full well that the hobby attracts price manipulation and shady behavior. The numbers posted above show the rapid rise and pull back many of us mentioned. Couple that with mass produced base cards seeing similar meteoric rises and recent hobby history and people are right to be cautious.
I love MJ, I have a what I feel is a pretty nice collection of his that I have happily put a fair amount of money into. I don't expect any of it to go down in value but am skeptical of the current value when I see them going crazy like this. I don't sell collection items unless hunting for something bigger but these prices have made it tempting, even as a self proclaimed MJ fanatic. Fortunately I am too lazy to list, ship and ultimately sop for replacements lol.
This ^
Some excellent points in this post above by CM. Card is very valuable, very desirable, and has plenty of copies available in high grade and lots of demand. No reason the 86 Fleer rookie should not sell for a premium and always will; however, what we are seeing right now is massive price jumps that don’t follow normal basic economics I.e. supply and demand. Supply has not decreased dramatically, and demand is not going through the roof for his cards suddenly - an ESPN special is not needed for people to realize he is the greatest player of all time.
Some people with money and a vested interest in Jordan cards are helping to manipulate the market right now by bidding up/shilling some PSA 10’s to record sales - sales occurring during a global pandemic with record unemployment and economic hardships on the horizon for many. If someone owns a bunch of Jordan 8’s and 9’s what better way to increase their value than to shill a PWCC auction - they are no stranger to this issue as 2016 showed us with Koufax, Clemente, Rose, and other rookies - find and ask the guy who paid $80k for a PSA 8 Koufax rookie what he thinks now.
Great card but the prices right now don’t make sense. If one wants to buy now and thinks it is a good investment more power to them, and if someone wants to sit out thinking this does not make sense I can see the reasons there as well. Like Buffet says “when others are greedy be fearful, and when others are fearful be greedy.” If nothing else it is fun to watch people get bent out of shape over a card and yell at people on a message board 🙄
I feel this is a good time to buy early Jordan product like his unopened Fleer wax boxes 87' (may be out of reach for most) 88' Fleer, 89' fleer and 90' Fleer wax and rack boxes also 92' Topps Stadium Club Series 2 wax boxes with Beam Team Jordan & Shaq Rookie. I believe these are relatively inexpensive overall and because of demand disguised as "manipulation" will continue to increase over time. Oh BTW, show me the "proof on manipulation" because if you can that's not cool. I still feel basic demand for Jordan cards will outlast any manipulation over time anyway.
chaz
Ride the wave where it takes me.... I’ve always said the 1992 Topps Stadium Club Jordan’s (and Shaq) are totally undervalued glad to jump on the Chaz train there!
Guys... You can continue to be passionate, discuss pump and dump, etc. But please back off a bit in the way you're addressing one another. This discussion is starting to walk the line between healthy banter and something uglier. More discussion, less attack. Thanks!
Todd Tobias - Grateful Collector - I focus on autographed American Football League sets, Fleer & Topps, 1960-1969, and lacrosse cards.
I feel this is a good time to buy early Jordan product like his unopened Fleer wax boxes 87' (may be out of reach for most) 88' Fleer, 89' fleer and 90' Fleer wax and rack boxes also 92' Topps Stadium Club Series 2 wax boxes with Beam Team Jordan & Shaq Rookie. I believe these are relatively inexpensive overall and because of demand disguised as "manipulation" will continue to increase over time. Oh BTW, show me the "proof on manipulation" because if you can that's not cool. I still feel basic demand for Jordan cards will outlast any manipulation over time anyway.
chaz
Ride the wave where it takes me.... I’ve always said the 1992 Topps Stadium Club Jordan’s (and Shaq) are totally undervalued glad to jump on the Chaz train there!
I don't have a dog in the fight, and really don't have an opinion one way or the other, but you have to ask yourselves this - With all the casinos shut down, all the nail salons, all the massage parlors, strip clubs, many of the dry cleaning stores, many of the bars and restaurants, and all the other stereotypical businesses that organized crime likes to wash their money through, do you think at all that a run-up in cards, seemingly in every corner of the hobby, is at all tied to illegal money laundering? We laugh about it all the time with the 1990 Fleer Uribe, but why not run the same scam with mainstream and highly desirable cards like Jordan and Griffey, etc? Just a thought... It'll be interesting to see where hobby prices are in 6 months with a completely wrecked economy, but all those other businesses finally open and running, and once again available to be used for illicit purposes.
@80sOPC said:
Listen, I don’t care what happens to Jordan RC’s or other cards, in fact I hope they go to the moon. But I’ve seen this movie before, only 4 years ago, where highly traded cards were pumped like crazy and still haven’t recovered. I also collected through the early 90s where every dad was stashing away cards for retirement, and Costco had lineups to buy Upper Deck French at 300 a pop. Everyone then was sure that prices would only go up but the whole market - save for truly rare and important stuff - fell apart. Same thing happened with weed stocks up here - when your buddies Dad is taking a HELOC to buy Canopy Growth it’s time to get out.
And I don’t have VCP but my understanding is the Jordan PSA 10 has gone from 15k-30k back to 17k now up to 40k all in the period of the past 4 years.
TBH have no idea where the market will go, maybe the Jordan will be a 100k card in 5 years but this feels like 1990 all over again, where clueless investors come in hard to make a quick buck and the cagey long timers play them for the fool. Add in a long drawn out global recession and my money is on this whole thing coming apart, with the rare and best stuff continuing to perform well.
I agree with your comment on "truly rare and important stuff"> @halfcentman said:
Sadly I am older than dirt and remember when Fleer first released these. Does anyone have a price record of these cards and the wax packs since their release? I am particular interested in what these were worth between 1987-1993 as far as the Jordan rookies, stickers, and packs/boxes/cases went for - because frankly I forget.
My dealer/collector friend bought a set off another dealer back in 1986/87 for $4.95. He held the set until I bought it 20 years ago. Of course I paid more than $4.95. He also threw in the empty box and some wrappers. The Jordan graded a 8.5. I did alright on the deal.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
No idea how that card is a ten. Looks like a touch of white on at least one corner and the centering is off l/r. That card would likely be an 8-9 if regraded.
Also I see 45k as current bid, does that include BP?
@80sOPC said:
No idea how that card is a ten. Looks like a touch of white on at least one corner and the centering is off l/r. That card would likely be an 8-9 if regraded.
Also I see 45k as current bid, does that include BP?
@80sOPC said:
No idea how that card is a ten. Looks like a touch of white on at least one corner and the centering is off l/r. That card would likely be an 8-9 if regraded.
Also I see 45k as current bid, does that include BP?
Interesting. Plus look at the surface with the snow and some other print stuff going on opposite his legs - looks like paper loss or something else going on.
@80sOPC said:
Listen I’m just offering an opinion, take it for what its worth. Not sure why you are so triggered.
This looks and feels like the tail end of a bubble. Seen this in RE ( RE goes up forever, remember that one? ) and in equities. Seen it in cards as well. We are in the euphoria phase of the bubble - no matter what the price, it is cheap and will only go higher. The dumb late money comes rushing in. Sound familiar?
Next stage is profit taking, with the smart money getting out.
Factor in economic conditions - which based on these posts people aren’t truly understanding the long term effects of 26mm unemployed- and you have an interesting few months ahead. I will be watching with lots of interest - who knows maybe cards are completely resistant to a massive drop in GDP and prices go up forever. That would be a first however.
Here is the good news, we can revisit in a 1/3/5 years and see where it all landed. No need to argue over it, I respect your opinion, just disagree.
People dropping 50k on a Jordan 10 are unaffected by the current economic conditions.
demand is not going through the roof for his cards suddenly - an ESPN special is not needed for people to realize he is the greatest player of all time.
I think it is and does.
Younger generation basketball fans I work with who swore LeBron James was the greatest of all time have now a better appreciation and understanding of how much impact Jordan had in the world, and now want in on him. They will pay just to have it, herd mentality if you will. This generation is looking at Jordan as your father's generation did with Mantle. These kids today weren't around to see Jordan, heard the stories, and now can watch and enjoy the series.
Now, I've been moving all my low end Jordan cards easily at these current levels, and my observation is there are many new non-collectors purchasing, they have low feedback, non sports cards previous purchases, and not quibbling in the condition of the low fruit Jordans. Men and women. All since the week leading into the Last Dance debut. And it isn't just Jordan. Add Pippen, Jackson, and Rodmanto to this too. This is great for the hobby.
The high end stuff will always command interest and top dollar. Occasional bumps up and down will occur, but in the future, it will still command the most attention, good or bad, and be the most expensive. The low end stuff will also have a market, for those who want in and those who can only afford lower end items.
I think Jordan is a blue chip investment. If you are looking long term (decade +) it won't matter what you paid today. If you are looking shorter term or to flip, well there is a chance you may see a decline or loss. Long term is the play in my opinion.
Enjoy your collection, no matter the value.
Buy what you like, no matter the value.
Enjoy and educate yourself with other's opinions right or wrong. That is most valuable.
Enjoy your collection, no matter the value.
Buy what you like, no matter the value.
The above two sentences are so important in collecting and very well stated. Too often we get caught up in what is hot and what does everyone else like rather than collect what we enjoy. As kids we collected our favorite players and teams and sets. Today I think we collect what is valuable and what will sell for the most money. Nothing wrong with that, but that is not collecting - that is investing. I am guilt of it as well, and need to go back to my collecting roots more and investing less. Love mid 70’s stuff as a kid which is what I collected, and newer stuff that appreciates only allows me to sell, make a profit, and buy more of what I liked as a kid. Great words and thank you for sharing.
I recently went back to my collecting roots. I realized sets are what I Iike to put together. I see my card spend as discretionary consumer spend - no different then a dinner out, a trip, or a few nice bottles of wine.
My investing strategy doesn’t involve cards at all. Like many I could buy multiple 86 jordans psa 10s. Or that money could buy bank stock that yields 6%, is currently on sale, and is cheap to buy and sell and is truly liquid. While I get that lots of individual cards and boxes have appreciated significantly, the idea of sports cards as an asset class makes me cringe.
And FWIW there is nothing blue chip about an asset that has dramatic swings every few years, is traded annually in low double figures, and the house takes 10-20% of the sale price.
Comments
Totally disagree.. I guess Jordan's card will be dropping back down to 10 K again...Wrong
chaz
Yep...sure...Jordan's card is going back down to 10K...Wrong
chaz
I guess certain people can't see the forest for the trees...really blind and no vision. I'll make a bet with any of you that 5 years from now Jordan's card will be higher than it is today which will raise the level for all his other cards too.
chaz
It should not come as a newsflash to anyone that even Babe Ruths and Mantles can be subject to price manipulation— as can Jordans. In fact, the better/healthier/more robust the underpinning drivers of a card, the more likely the manipulation is to stick or take. That is why athletes with big collector bases or specific cards that are especially iconic to certain eras, and thus have a big fan base, are ripe targets for manipulation. For the manipulation to "take," people need to see prices rising and think, "Sure, this card has very good reason to rise, so I better grab one now before it really takes off." The old FOMO, or fear of missing out.
In other words, a card can both be very, very worthy of steady appreciation over time— such as a Jordan Fleer RC— and also be manipulated. We should acknowledge that these are not mutually exclusive dynamics, which is what makes the situation so murky and tricky. In fact, again, the more a card has going for it intrinsically, the more the manipulation can act as an artificial accelerant, so to speak.
So, yes, the Jordan card can certainly be priced higher in five years than it is today, and yet that would not at all preclude that price level from having been the byproduct (albeit to an unquantifiable extent) of scamming in a Wild West unregulated marketplace.
The bottom line is that our hobby is an unregulated market that is rife and riddled with the machinations of the unscrupulous, be it a fake sale or a trimmed edge or worked corner. All we as collectors/buyers can do is research as best we can, and pay a price with which we are comfortable for the pieces we want to enjoy.
For example, I recently was in the market for a particular Ruth card. I was looking at an example in a given grade, and I noticed that the card historically trended in a certain range in that grade— then, fairly recently, it took an upward spike. A few sales in a row were really above the prior range. Now, is this the new normal? Was this an attempt at manipulation? Was this a few exceptional examples of eye appeal being sold in a row? I needed to dig in. I found I preferred to find an example one grade above or below the specimen in question, as there was more consistency in the pricing at those surrounding grades.
Instagram: mattyc_collection
Finally a worthy discussion. Jordan my boy
DM23HOF gets it.
Ok whoever DM23HOF is... here is the bottom line for you ...you're goin' up against the Chaz now...so guess what? WHO CARES ABOUT MANIPULATION ??? How's that?? Bottom Line is that prices over the long term are going up no matter what the SUPPLY or MANIPULATION is. Where does the Ryan rookie (there are thousands graded) pricing stand right now vs 10 or 20 years ago??? It's all about the PLAYER and the DEMAND for that PLAYER. In this case, it just happens to be the Greatest Basketball Player whoever laced up a pair of sneakers. It is simple and basic economics.
chaz
I am tempted to trade my 86 PSA 9 and my 87 PSA 10 for either a decent 51B or a low grade 52T Mick.....
Never thought that would be possible. It is today.
I don't really see how I am "goin' up against" someone by attempting to have a collegial discussion about sportscards online during a pandemic quarantine, but nonetheless I'll try.
"WHO CARES ABOUT MANIPULATION ???" (the liberal use of caps and question marks are not mine)
I think any of us collector/buyers out there should be wary of manipulation, as it is an affront to us all. Saying "who cares" about something as nefarious as manipulation is pretty wild. I would venture many hobbyists care.
"Bottom Line is that prices over the long term are going up"
I agree. Prices of certain cards can and will ascend over time— but it is important to note that manipulation can act as an artificial accelerant or intensifier to the pace or height of the price increase. An increase that is steady over time is one thing, versus a huge increase in a very, very short time encompassing examples of varying eye appeal. Outlier cards with extreme eye appeal for their grades do routinely and deservedly create short term spike data points. Due to fraudulent tactics in the market, we can never truly know how much a given price point is due to the ingredient of manipulation, which is admittedly one active ingredient of several. Demand and the player are two other key ingredients, for sure.
"In this case, it just happens to be the Greatest Basketball Player whoever laced up a pair of sneakers."
I agree. Jordan is the greatest basketball player ever. And again, I agree that his cards can and would/should increase over time. But to what height and at what pace is the issue at hand. Are we all really to believe that a simple documentary combined with idle time on collectors' hands could take a card on such a fast, high ride? Certainly possible. But equally possible is some well-timed manipulation and sales that never truly were. The truth is most likely a confluence of all factors.
Instagram: mattyc_collection
It's not about manipulation or someone's impulse to buy so a certain predictable upward movement in a card suits you. It is what it is. Manipulation takes place in the stock market so are they shutting down the stock market because of manipulation? No. It's all about DEMAND and the PLAYER so if you call that manipulation when the price goes up and down then again if you are uncomfortable about it guess what.... I say it's basic ebb and flow of the market. My point is that it does not matter how the price (someone's impulse to buy or sell) get's to where it is...it's about how much someone will pay or not pay for the card. Besides that you have to have proof that manipulation is taking place. Guys bitch and moan about manipulation back in 2016...well where is the proof? It's speculation that there are phony ebay sales so without the proof, you are speculating..... Say if the prices for Jordan cards keep rising which I believe they will and they don't come back down like a pump and dump....then what???
Oh yeah, I was right and you agree again.
chaz
https://www.ebay.com/itm/353045862767?_trksid=p2471758.m4704
OMG I guess I wasn't hitting refresh the other night when this went off. $24,601
For some reason I thought it went for a little more than 16k. This is a beautiful copy.
More manipulation I guess....give me a break. MJ was the greatest that ever lived and you're seeing reality. That card will be 50K+ all day long pretty soon and these prices today will seem cheap.
chaz
I highlighted this when it was first listed. This is a 10 all day every day. A true stud card.
Chaz PSA 10.
Interesting debate.
If only I could go back in time...4, 6, 8, 10 years and kick myself in the arse after every time I said:
"Gee, I'll wait til {insert card here} is cheaper next year"
Doesn't happen. Not the good ones at least. Sometimes you get lucky timing the market.
I do remember the Jordan having a pullback after a big run-up a few years ago.
On another note,
Jordan pop is 311; he's a highly coveted prize where demand could easily out way supply.
Sustainable? Time will tell.
U.D. Griffey @ $1500? No way no how. They're still printing 89 upper decks
Yes and guess what?? How many "run ups" and then "pull backs" you guys gonna have before the "pull back" value of his card is $100k+ and his sticker card is $50K+ and all his other cards are all up triple and quadruple after a "pull back" before you guys wake up????
Duh???...
chaz
Betting against Jordan is like betting against America and in the words of the great multi-billionaire investor Warren Buffet "Betting against America is bad bet."
So there you have it. Hope this get's through your thick heads but I doubt it....
chaz
Buffet IS betting against America right now, at least in the short term. He is sitting on 130 billion in cash. He thinks asset values will continue to fall and he will be looking for value.
Now don’t go all crazy on me Chaz, but you brought up Buffet and Buffet would think we are nuts to invest in anything that doesn’t pay a dividend for one, and he sure wouldn’t be buying anything that had doubled in a few months.
First of all Buffett is waiting to make some buys at the right price ( I know all about his 130 billion and he may already have purchased some new stocks except for airplane stocks!). Buffett I believe, never bets "against" America ...he just waits. So what your telling me is that prices will go back down to where they were and steadily move up so all you guys are happy right? Well guess what....price action doesn't always move that way. Sure, "be greedy when others' are fearful and be fearful when others' are greedy", I know all about that but believe it or not... I feel this is a good time to buy early Jordan product like his unopened Fleer wax boxes 87' (may be out of reach for most) 88' Fleer, 89' fleer and 90' Fleer wax and rack boxes also 92' Topps Stadium Club Series 2 wax boxes with Beam Team Jordan & Shaq Rookie. I believe these are relatively inexpensive overall and because of demand disguised as "manipulation" will continue to increase over time. Oh BTW, show me the "proof on manipulation" because if you can that's not cool. I still feel basic demand for Jordan cards will outlast any manipulation over time anyway.
chaz
Let's leave Jimmy Buffett out of this please! All the man wants to do is sing songs and dream about white sand beaches, so let him be!
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Greg Maddux #1 Master SetGreg Maddux #2 Basic Set
Well said Chaz.
Brian
Pump and dump... repeat.
COLLECTING: 2020 Topps 206 ⚾️
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I don't agree. You tell me money managers in the stock market don't buy a ton of shares driving up the price or shorting a ton of stock which drives it down....it's done all the time and it's unfortunate but that's the way it is. They use the RSI, MACD, Bollanger Bands etc. and they do it over and over.... it's the way of the market I guess. Regarding cards, I don't see anyone taking my bet that Jordan's main card(86' Fleer) and his sticker (86' Fleer) won't be higher in 5 years....even with the combination of manipulation & market demand, this combination along with other factors will continue to drive prices upward. Guys don't get it....we're talking about the Babe Ruth of Basketball.
Don't bet against America and don't bet against Jordan.
chaz
Pump and dump ....repeat....and ....repeat...... and...repeat
****This will blow you're entire argument right out of the water****
Jordan's 1986 Fleer PSA 10
2005 - Present
8k -dump
15k - pump
10k- dump
20k - pump
13k-dump
22k-pump
15k- dump
30k-pump
21k- dump
34k-pump
27k-dump
and now...
REA : $51,600 PUMP
-dump???
Hope some of you Knuckleheads get it, if not I can't help you (I do realize there are some hopeless cases out there).
chaz
I don't think anyone is debating that the value of Jordan cards won't increase over time. That is pretty much a generally accepted fact. Nor does anyone debate his legacy or the demand for his cards and memorabilia.
The issue many have is seeing a card that has been readily available at a certain price take a massive jump in a short period time knowing full well that the hobby attracts price manipulation and shady behavior. The numbers posted above show the rapid rise and pull back many of us mentioned. Couple that with mass produced base cards seeing similar meteoric rises and recent hobby history and people are right to be cautious.
I love MJ, I have a what I feel is a pretty nice collection of his that I have happily put a fair amount of money into. I don't expect any of it to go down in value but am skeptical of the current value when I see them going crazy like this. I don't sell collection items unless hunting for something bigger but these prices have made it tempting, even as a self proclaimed MJ fanatic. Fortunately I am too lazy to list, ship and ultimately sop for replacements lol.
You really don't get it...this pump & dump has been going on for YEARS. The base value of his cards have been steadily increasing for years so buy during or after the dump. Hold during the pump. Mr. Buffett ...when do you sell a stock? "Never" (except airline stocks!).
chaz
Chaz... the question is, how many Jordan 86 Fleers do you have? And how many Jordan cards in genera do you own?
COLLECTING: 2020 Topps 206 ⚾️
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No, the question is "Do you GET what I am trying to say to you?" That's the real question here. Answer that....
Unfortunately I sold my all my graded Jordan's years ago. It's still very painful. I lost a ton of money because I sold during the dump...lesson well learned. Just trying to help you guys out by not being "scared" like I was by letting great Jordan PSA 10 cards go when I could have sold other things instead.
chaz
If you accept the pump and dump has been happening for years and even put up numbers proving that then what exactly don't I get? Whether the current run was fueled in part by some price manipulation is irrelevant, the current peak prices will pull back. Higher than they were, lower than they currently are. It's a trend Jimmy Buffett can see, doesn't take Warren to tell you what is going on.
I buy MJ at all times, my focus is no longer on his Fleer cards as I own them already and don't care to own duplicates. I personally don't look at Jordan as a stock to buy and sell, just as an athlete i love to collect so these price runs don't really concern or impact me. Just find it an interesting topic and even as someone that could potentially benefit from the manipulation and feeding frenzy, like to partake in the discussion with open eyes.
Chaz why is this so personal for you. Calling people names, we are all a bunch of morons if we think the card is overpriced today. Relax man, its just a hobby
And can you at least concede that if the card has a good long term future - which I agree with - then its better to buy it at 30k then 50k? You are arguing that its a good buy at 50k today when the history on this card shows it will be available for 30-40k in the next few years. It ALWAYS corrects after hitting a new high. The fact that is might be worth 70k in 10 years is immaterial to if it is a good buy today. If your investing style is “who care what it costs today, it will be worth more in the future” then I’m out on this, we have a different understanding on the concept of value.
Bottom line your performance on this thread is a PSA 2 MK. Would not submit.
You'd be surprised at what people don't get. I explained the pump & dump and some people will still be "cautious". Well, if you are cautious then buy the dip (dump) because if you don't buy something, the ship will leave without you.
chaz
Sadly I am older than dirt and remember when Fleer first released these. Does anyone have a price record of these cards and the wax packs since their release? I am particular interested in what these were worth between 1987-1993 as far as the Jordan rookies, stickers, and packs/boxes/cases went for - because frankly I forget.
Have no idea, sorry.
chaz
PSA 2 MK.......that's brutal and unfair. Never got one of those back Thank God...it would ruin my week!
It's not personal at all... I am passionate and just trying to help guys out with understanding the market when it comes to Jordan. I am trying reduce their anxiety that I went through when his cards take a dip. That's all.
chaz
This ^
Some excellent points in this post above by CM. Card is very valuable, very desirable, and has plenty of copies available in high grade and lots of demand. No reason the 86 Fleer rookie should not sell for a premium and always will; however, what we are seeing right now is massive price jumps that don’t follow normal basic economics I.e. supply and demand. Supply has not decreased dramatically, and demand is not going through the roof for his cards suddenly - an ESPN special is not needed for people to realize he is the greatest player of all time.
Some people with money and a vested interest in Jordan cards are helping to manipulate the market right now by bidding up/shilling some PSA 10’s to record sales - sales occurring during a global pandemic with record unemployment and economic hardships on the horizon for many. If someone owns a bunch of Jordan 8’s and 9’s what better way to increase their value than to shill a PWCC auction - they are no stranger to this issue as 2016 showed us with Koufax, Clemente, Rose, and other rookies - find and ask the guy who paid $80k for a PSA 8 Koufax rookie what he thinks now.
Great card but the prices right now don’t make sense. If one wants to buy now and thinks it is a good investment more power to them, and if someone wants to sit out thinking this does not make sense I can see the reasons there as well. Like Buffet says “when others are greedy be fearful, and when others are fearful be greedy.” If nothing else it is fun to watch people get bent out of shape over a card and yell at people on a message board 🙄
I feel this is a good time to buy early Jordan product like his unopened Fleer wax boxes 87' (may be out of reach for most) 88' Fleer, 89' fleer and 90' Fleer wax and rack boxes also 92' Topps Stadium Club Series 2 wax boxes with Beam Team Jordan & Shaq Rookie. I believe these are relatively inexpensive overall and because of demand disguised as "manipulation" will continue to increase over time. Oh BTW, show me the "proof on manipulation" because if you can that's not cool. I still feel basic demand for Jordan cards will outlast any manipulation over time anyway.
Ride the wave where it takes me.... I’ve always said the 1992 Topps Stadium Club Jordan’s (and Shaq) are totally undervalued glad to jump on the Chaz train there!
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
Guys... You can continue to be passionate, discuss pump and dump, etc. But please back off a bit in the way you're addressing one another. This discussion is starting to walk the line between healthy banter and something uglier. More discussion, less attack. Thanks!
BRAVO !!!! BRAVO!!!!
chaz
I don't have a dog in the fight, and really don't have an opinion one way or the other, but you have to ask yourselves this - With all the casinos shut down, all the nail salons, all the massage parlors, strip clubs, many of the dry cleaning stores, many of the bars and restaurants, and all the other stereotypical businesses that organized crime likes to wash their money through, do you think at all that a run-up in cards, seemingly in every corner of the hobby, is at all tied to illegal money laundering? We laugh about it all the time with the 1990 Fleer Uribe, but why not run the same scam with mainstream and highly desirable cards like Jordan and Griffey, etc? Just a thought... It'll be interesting to see where hobby prices are in 6 months with a completely wrecked economy, but all those other businesses finally open and running, and once again available to be used for illicit purposes.
I agree with your comment on "truly rare and important stuff"> @halfcentman said:
My dealer/collector friend bought a set off another dealer back in 1986/87 for $4.95. He held the set until I bought it 20 years ago. Of course I paid more than $4.95. He also threw in the empty box and some wrappers. The Jordan graded a 8.5. I did alright on the deal.
https://goldinauctions.com/1986_87_Fleer__57_Michael_Jordan_Rookie_Card___PSA-LOT58706.aspx
Up to $54,000 with 20 days to go.
No idea how that card is a ten. Looks like a touch of white on at least one corner and the centering is off l/r. That card would likely be an 8-9 if regraded.
Also I see 45k as current bid, does that include BP?
You add 20%
Interesting. Plus look at the surface with the snow and some other print stuff going on opposite his legs - looks like paper loss or something else going on.
Yes that card is a mess. Hard to believe that it will set a new record, that looks like a 5k card to me.
Shows how irrational the market is right now where the condition of the card doesn’t even matter.
People dropping 50k on a Jordan 10 are unaffected by the current economic conditions.
People dropping 50k on a Jordan 10 are unaffected by the current economic conditions.
Totally Agree.
chaz
demand is not going through the roof for his cards suddenly - an ESPN special is not needed for people to realize he is the greatest player of all time.
I think it is and does.
Younger generation basketball fans I work with who swore LeBron James was the greatest of all time have now a better appreciation and understanding of how much impact Jordan had in the world, and now want in on him. They will pay just to have it, herd mentality if you will. This generation is looking at Jordan as your father's generation did with Mantle. These kids today weren't around to see Jordan, heard the stories, and now can watch and enjoy the series.
Now, I've been moving all my low end Jordan cards easily at these current levels, and my observation is there are many new non-collectors purchasing, they have low feedback, non sports cards previous purchases, and not quibbling in the condition of the low fruit Jordans. Men and women. All since the week leading into the Last Dance debut. And it isn't just Jordan. Add Pippen, Jackson, and Rodmanto to this too. This is great for the hobby.
The high end stuff will always command interest and top dollar. Occasional bumps up and down will occur, but in the future, it will still command the most attention, good or bad, and be the most expensive. The low end stuff will also have a market, for those who want in and those who can only afford lower end items.
I think Jordan is a blue chip investment. If you are looking long term (decade +) it won't matter what you paid today. If you are looking shorter term or to flip, well there is a chance you may see a decline or loss. Long term is the play in my opinion.
Enjoy your collection, no matter the value.
Buy what you like, no matter the value.
Enjoy and educate yourself with other's opinions right or wrong. That is most valuable.
The above two sentences are so important in collecting and very well stated. Too often we get caught up in what is hot and what does everyone else like rather than collect what we enjoy. As kids we collected our favorite players and teams and sets. Today I think we collect what is valuable and what will sell for the most money. Nothing wrong with that, but that is not collecting - that is investing. I am guilt of it as well, and need to go back to my collecting roots more and investing less. Love mid 70’s stuff as a kid which is what I collected, and newer stuff that appreciates only allows me to sell, make a profit, and buy more of what I liked as a kid. Great words and thank you for sharing.
I recently went back to my collecting roots. I realized sets are what I Iike to put together. I see my card spend as discretionary consumer spend - no different then a dinner out, a trip, or a few nice bottles of wine.
My investing strategy doesn’t involve cards at all. Like many I could buy multiple 86 jordans psa 10s. Or that money could buy bank stock that yields 6%, is currently on sale, and is cheap to buy and sell and is truly liquid. While I get that lots of individual cards and boxes have appreciated significantly, the idea of sports cards as an asset class makes me cringe.
And FWIW there is nothing blue chip about an asset that has dramatic swings every few years, is traded annually in low double figures, and the house takes 10-20% of the sale price.