The only person I know who bought gold right was my pops who loaded up in the $350-$400 range. Surely others have too, but at this level, you can ride it up or down and you are still winning no matter what.
When your pops bought at $350-$400, he didn't know whether it would go up or down. He took a chance based on his own evaluation. What he did know was that it started at $35 and rose to $350-$400.
at this level, you can ride it up or down and you are still winning no matter what. Buying in now has much less upside and a lot more uncertainty about its long term trend.
Actually, you don't know any more now than your pops did then. You don't know that gold has much less upside, and there was every bit as much uncertainty then, as there is now. I know. I took that risk then as well. There were no guarantees then, and everything looks different after the fact.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Wrong. Gold just broke thru a major resistance level.
What percentage of price gains actually occur AFTER a resistance break confirms the existence of the upward trend?
About 10%...then consolidates ...i see it going to $1480-1500 near term.
I'm not sure you understood my question, but if this is the answer it proves my point. If you buy when it crosses resistance you have (maybe) 10% upturn. The time to buy gold would have been at $1280 when it bounced off support not waiting until it crossed resistance. Just saying...
The valuations in the stock market are getting pretty rich. Lots of ups and downs the last year and a half due to a lot of uncertainty. But a lot of people are saying it's the only place to put your money because interest rates are so low. They are still scared of real estate from the last crash. More turmoil possible. I am thinking of taking some profits on some high flying stocks and adding to PM's.
Successful BST deals with mustangt and jesbroken. Now EVERYTHING is for sale.
Dalio does more than trade in gold ...with his billions and experience he sees a bigger picture than everyone on this board ........including me!
I really like Dalio. During the last crisis, Kyle Bass made predictions that earned him superstar status. Now? He hasn't been right much. Meridith Whitney from the recession post 2001, same story
Out of a thousand eager wealth managers, they all make predictions. The few that guessed right are elevated to guru status, not because they were prescient, but because the odds of a couple of people forecasting (guessing) correctly happens.
The metals have a nasty way of having the rug pulled out from them, no rhyme or reason. True, buying as an asset class breaks resistance levels tends to work in the short term, but, buying long before the asset class was ever in favor works all that much better.
The only person I know who bought gold right was my pops who loaded up in the $350-$400 range. Surely others have too, but at this level, you can ride it up or down and you are still winning no matter what. Buying in now has much less upside and a lot more uncertainty about its long term trend.
We are in an everything bubble according to many, gold included.
Its like Joe Namath guaranteeing victory in SB 3. So has every player on every winning team ever. And so has every player on every losing team ever. But somewhere along the way someone decided Joe Namath was an oracle.
When your pops bought at $350-$400, he didn't know whether it would go up or down. He took a chance based on his own evaluation. What he did know was that it started at $35 and rose to $350-$400.
No, gold started at $35, ran up to almost $800 in 79-80 then had a long decline, bottoming out in the $350 range.
He didn't know in an absolute sense, nobody does, but he was certain it was going up. He was right. Gold at $350 was more than 50% off its highs. Is $1400 gold 50% off its 2010-2011 highs? None of that was my point, only that since he bought the gold so low, whether gold rises a hundred or falls a hundred doesn't really affect his overall position. For others, if gold spikes a couple hundred, then goes flat again for a long while, and they want out, they are buried - as over the years I have read a few posters here lament that fact.
See my quote below -
at this level, you can ride it up or down and you are still winning no matter what. Buying in now has much less upside and a lot more uncertainty about its long term trend.
Actually, you don't know any more now than your pops did then. You don't know that gold has much less upside, and there was every bit as much uncertainty then, as there is now. I know. I took that risk then as well. There were no guarantees then, and everything looks different after the fact.
Well Gosh JM, nothing in my post suggested either my pops or myself knows. I just don't think it has much upside. I don't know in an absolute sense, but I am certain it won't. Since I am certain it won't, I don't buy gold.
Why? - IMO the fed is fighting deflation, and a massive black hole of deflation when the debt implodes. Gold will go with it.
I don't know in an absolute sense, I am just certain of it.
To your point, I would say that gold isn't debt and anything involving debt is likely to go into that black hole. Nominal numbers might change, but the gold and silver will still be there. Anything tied to debt won't, i.e., mortgages & corporate bonds. It used to look like the only way out would be either default or inflation. Now, maybe not.
Now, it looks like the banks simply might end up owning all assets, as long as they can create money and buy the assets with it, under the guise of fighting deflation. Like Japan is finding out now. The banks, and their elitist corporate officers are about the only beneficiaries of this.
Individuals can buy assets in an attempt to escape deflation, but don't have the advantage of creating their own free money with the multiplier of fractional reserve currency to buy assets. As long as the country remains productive, nobody notices much - just like the boiling frog. If enough people lose their standard of living, there will be a big problem, but the banks will deflect the blame from themselves somehow.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Why? - IMO the fed is fighting deflation, and a massive black hole of deflation when the debt implodes. Gold will go with it.
I don't know in an absolute sense, I am just certain of it.
The free market price of gold actually went UP during the Great Depression of 1929-1933 (and not just because Roosevelt confiscated the gold in 1933 at $20.67 and then revalued the official price to $35).
And gold also went on a good run starting at the beginning of the Great Recession of 2008.
Both of the above episodes were basically "debt implosions".
Why? - IMO the fed is fighting deflation, and a massive black hole of deflation when the debt implodes. Gold will go with it.
I don't know in an absolute sense, I am just certain of it.
The free market price of gold actually went UP during the Great Depression of 1929-1933 (and not just because Roosevelt confiscated the gold in 1933 at $20.67 and then revalued the official price to $35).
And gold also went on a good run starting at the beginning of the Great Recession of 2008.
Both of the above episodes were basically "debt implosions".
In the 08-09 episode, gold sold off about 20%, then did very well, but that could have been due to the never before tried, massive QE program that had people fearing inflation.
A debt implosion is a wipe-out, which is very unlikely - a market correction is what I meant to suggest. A major market correction is very likely and gold will respond to this on the downside IMO. It will be the fed's reaction that will determine how gold reacts going forward, during and after the correction.
There will be a window when the market corrects and asset prices are falling where metals could potentially be a much better buy.
I could be wrong, but it doesn't worry me. I would rather wait to see how gold does in a panic than to buy it after a ten year asset expansion pumped up and artifically expanded by the Federal Reserve's low interest rate policy - longest expansion in history. Upsides always have a downsides. I am earning 4% now, so it is like me owning gold and seeing it rise $50.00
Dalio doesn't buy physical like us plebes, he buys and plays the paper markets - in and out. Dalio can also use option strategies to hedge his positions, physical buyers cannot.
Lastly, what kind of a valuable asset is it that has maybe a half dozen places in a large metro area where you can buy and sell your gold fairly?
@MrEureka said:
Hadn’t Dalio been touting gold nonstop for years now?
And the smart money was buying for years now.
Maybe as a hedge but not like his call las August when he mentioned it in the context of a paradigm shift
Not sure I'd classify a global pandemic as a paradigm shift, but that's certainly what's responsible for the majority of the move since August.
Gold is not bought to protect one from a pandemic. It is bought to protect one from what happens when a pandemic pulls back the curtain on a weak economy.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
@MrEureka said:
Hadn’t Dalio been touting gold nonstop for years now?
And the smart money was buying for years now.
Maybe as a hedge but not like his call las August when he mentioned it in the context of a paradigm shift
Not sure I'd classify a global pandemic as a paradigm shift, but that's certainly what's responsible for the majority of the move since August.
Gold is not bought to protect one from a pandemic. It is bought to protect one from what happens when a pandemic pulls back the curtain on a weak economy.
The economy was fine before the pandemic. The structure, integrity and finances of the government, not so much.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
The economy was not fine. If it were fine, consumers and corporations could have hunkered down. But with no savings and lots of debt, hunkering is not an option. The only option is free money for all.
Consumers surviving paycheck to paycheck and corporations with no cash because they spent it all on stock buybacks is far from a sign of a strong economy.
Do not confuse a Federal Reserve fueled stock market with a strong economy. They are two entirely different animals.
Pandemic just lit the fuse of a fully armed time bomb.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
@derryb said:
The economy was not fine. If it were fine, consumers and corporations could have hunkered down. But with no savings and lots of debt, hunkering is not an option. The only option is free money for all.
Consumers surviving paycheck to paycheck and corporations with no cash because they spent it all on stock buybacks it far from a sign of a strong economy.
Do not confuse a Federal Reserve fueled stock market with a strong economy. They are two entirely different animals.
Pandemic just lit the fuse of a fully armed time bomb.
Well, yes and no. Just consider that savings are likely weaker than they would have been if income taxes were lower, people weren’t forced and incentivized to save for their retirements in untouchable accounts, and unemployment insurance wasn’t mandatory. Or consider that tax policy is a major driver for stock buybacks. I could go on and on, but this probably isn’t the place.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I have a lot of money in stocks, bonds and CDs, and lesser amounts in collector coins, other collectibles and gold bullion pieces. Frankly I don’t know if any of that is any good because the medical people, who know nothing about economics and business, and could care less, are acting like they want to run the show.
When I read that some scientific loon wants to run things like we have it now until 2022, I’ll tell him to his face that is not viable. He will have a social insurrection on his hands that will dwarf this virus. Even if the some of the protesters catch the bug, those that don’t will prevail. A break will have to be made. Some lives will be lost, but this can’t go on forever in a civil society.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
Wasn't a really hard call either. About the simplest TA/charting possible with long base forming a very symmetric 6 yr - inverse head and shoulders pattern.....target projection from that pattern was a minimum of $1703. A 6 year (rule of 4) chart breakout taking out previous resistance at $1375, then filling old - resistanct gaps from 2013 at $1389 and $1413. Once that moved occurred it was clear sailing up to the former $1650 crash dive point from spring 2013 was a given. Icing on the cake was that the strong (point of recognition) up move occurred in month 10 (half way point) of what is typically an 18-22 month gold cycle....now in month 20. Ray was just confirming basic TA and charting analysis.
Add to the above a correction of 51 months from 2011 peak to 2015 low. And then 51 months from 2015 low to the March peak. Symmetry galore. Martin Armstrong's ECM model has been dead on with gold for 20 yrs now. His decades old model strongly suggested a 4.3 yr up move for gold from Sept 2015 to January 2020. Gold is now working on retracing some or all of the "whipsaw" left shoulder from 2011-2012....ranging from $1522-$1923. Easy Peasy.
My daughter runs a social work agency... that community is projecting, and I haven't heard anyone refute, that they expect to lose 6x more people from depression if the shutdown lasts just 3 months than we will from the disease. I choose to believe that science will prevail enough to turn this around. In the meantime, I'll continue to collect coins.
Dalio gave two reasons for his correct call, both of which included "currency depreciation," but did not include TA/charting:
investments that "will most likely do best will be those that do well when the value of money is being depreciated and domestic and international conflicts are significant, such as gold."
In what he calls a "paradigm shift:" "I believe that monetizations of debt and currency depreciations will eventually pick up, which will reduce the value of money and real returns for creditor." I agree with the prognosis but disagree that it is a paradigm shift as it has been the FED's Modus Operandi ever since the last crisis.
It's refreshing to see another highly respected money professional actually linking the need for gold to the reckless treatment of the currency. It's almost as if he is promoting an "insurance" policy against currency destruction.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
Wasn't a really hard call either. About the simplest TA/charting possible with long base forming a very symmetric 6 yr - inverse head and shoulders pattern.....target projection from that pattern was a minimum of $1703. A 6 year (rule of 4) chart breakout taking out previous resistance at $1375, then filling old - resistanct gaps from 2013 at $1389 and $1413. Once that moved occurred it was clear sailing up to the former $1650 crash dive point from spring 2013 was a given. Icing on the cake was that the strong (point of recognition) up move occurred in month 10 (half way point) of what is typically an 18-22 month gold cycle....now in month 20. Ray was just confirming basic TA and charting analysis.
Add to the above a correction of 51 months from 2011 peak to 2015 low. And then 51 months from 2015 low to the March peak. Symmetry galore. Martin Armstrong's ECM model has been dead on with gold for 20 yrs now. His decades old model strongly suggested a 4.3 yr up move for gold from Sept 2015 to January 2020. Gold is now working on retracing some or all of the "whipsaw" left shoulder from 2011-2012....ranging from $1522-$1923. Easy Peasy.
“Easy peasy” in hindsight. And when you talk about a move being “a given” it strains credibility. I say that despite the fact that I’m convinced you’re extremely knowledgeable on the subject.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@BillJones said:
I have a lot of money in stocks, bonds and CDs, and lesser amounts in collector coins, other collectibles and gold bullion pieces. Frankly I don’t know if any of that is any good because the medical people, who know nothing about economics and business, and could care less, are acting like they want to run the show.
When I read that some scientific loon wants to run things like we have it now until 2022, I’ll tell him to his face that is not viable. He will have a social insurrection on his hands that will dwarf this virus. Even if the some of the protesters catch the bug, those that don’t will prevail. A break will have to be made. Some lives will be lost, but this can’t go on forever in a civil society.
It’s true that medical professionals and scientists aren’t considering the economy as their main objective. Thank God
Bill, I think you are at retirement age so it won’t be you on the front line if they try to start the economy too soon. It will be retail associates, Uber drivers, baggage handlers, TSA, tellers, servers etc. You won’t be the one possibly sacrificing a life to save your portfolio. Everyone is brave with someone else’s lives. I will gladly tell you that to your face or any politician or talking head on TV.
I have faith in science, medical professionals and true economists. I have zero faith with politicians.
mark
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
@logger7 said:
It is amazing how these financial wizards can say anything that gets reported as news. In a few months if gold is back down where it was I wonder how that would be spun?
Then they will say "Buy Gold while the price is down"
@coinpalice said:
I made a comment about Ray in August of 2019, he hit another one on the head, way to go
No matter the reason he was correct so far. I’m giving him a W on this one
m
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
@BillJones said:
I have a lot of money in stocks, bonds and CDs, and lesser amounts in collector coins, other collectibles and gold bullion pieces. Frankly I don’t know if any of that is any good because the medical people, who know nothing about economics and business, and could care less, are acting like they want to run the show.
When I read that some scientific loon wants to run things like we have it now until 2022, I’ll tell him to his face that is not viable. He will have a social insurrection on his hands that will dwarf this virus. Even if the some of the protesters catch the bug, those that don’t will prevail. A break will have to be made. Some lives will be lost, but this can’t go on forever in a civil society.
It’s true that medical professionals and scientists aren’t considering the economy as their main objective. Thank God
Bill, I think you are at retirement age so it won’t be you on the front line if they try to start the economy too soon. You won’t be the one sacrificing a life to save your portfolio. Everyone is brave with someone else’s lives. I will gladly tell you that to your face or any politician or talking head on TV.
I have faith in science, medical professionals and true economists. I have zero faith with politicians.
mark
There are people involved here that into the power trip they are getting out of this. I responded to the comment these guys are talking about keeping this going, as it is now until 2022. I will repeat, that is untenable.
As for doctors, many are great; some of them are very bad news. I have been to a couple bad ones, and not get out of there fast enough. One was totally arrogant and totally incompetent.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
@shorecoll said:
My daughter runs a social work agency... that community is projecting, and I haven't heard anyone refute, that they expect to lose 6x more people from depression if the shutdown lasts just 3 months than we will from the disease. I choose to believe that science will prevail enough to turn this around. In the meantime, I'll continue to collect coins.
The people saved will be the old and sick and the ones who replace them will be the young and healthy.
I'm trying to stay optimistic that a JIT economy can be restarted after it has shut down.
I just heard Dr. Phil agree with me on this total shut-down issue. There are side effects to this that will become worse than the virus. This shut-down can’t continue for another two months, let alone two years in its current form.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
@BillJones said:
I just heard Dr. Phil agree with me on this total shut-down issue. There are side effects to this that will become worse than the virus. This shut-down can’t continue for another two months, let alone two years in its current form.
Comments
Lots of TA ignorance displayed here.
And thats a good thing.😀
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The only person I know who bought gold right was my pops who loaded up in the $350-$400 range. Surely others have too, but at this level, you can ride it up or down and you are still winning no matter what.
When your pops bought at $350-$400, he didn't know whether it would go up or down. He took a chance based on his own evaluation. What he did know was that it started at $35 and rose to $350-$400.
at this level, you can ride it up or down and you are still winning no matter what. Buying in now has much less upside and a lot more uncertainty about its long term trend.
Actually, you don't know any more now than your pops did then. You don't know that gold has much less upside, and there was every bit as much uncertainty then, as there is now. I know. I took that risk then as well. There were no guarantees then, and everything looks different after the fact.
I knew it would happen.
To really crow, you must buy at the right time and sell at the right time.
Smitten with DBLCs.
There is a new word on the horizon that you will hear soon, and then more and more after that:
quadrillion
.
To really crow, you must buy at the right time and sell at the right time.
I'm not even so sure that I'd agree with that.
There is a new word on the horizon that you will hear soon, and then more and more after that:
quadrillion
verily!
I knew it would happen.
Gold is nice to look at.
But I'd rather stick with index funds for long term.
10-4,
My Instagram picturesErik
My registry sets
I think certified gold coins close to melt good buy.
+1
I'm not sure you understood my question, but if this is the answer it proves my point. If you buy when it crosses resistance you have (maybe) 10% upturn. The time to buy gold would have been at $1280 when it bounced off support not waiting until it crossed resistance. Just saying...
The valuations in the stock market are getting pretty rich. Lots of ups and downs the last year and a half due to a lot of uncertainty. But a lot of people are saying it's the only place to put your money because interest rates are so low. They are still scared of real estate from the last crash. More turmoil possible. I am thinking of taking some profits on some high flying stocks and adding to PM's.
Successful BST deals with mustangt and jesbroken. Now EVERYTHING is for sale.
Its like Joe Namath guaranteeing victory in SB 3. So has every player on every winning team ever. And so has every player on every losing team ever. But somewhere along the way someone decided Joe Namath was an oracle.
Yeah dude. These noobs are clueless about all the advanced TA going on here.
No, gold started at $35, ran up to almost $800 in 79-80 then had a long decline, bottoming out in the $350 range.
He didn't know in an absolute sense, nobody does, but he was certain it was going up. He was right. Gold at $350 was more than 50% off its highs. Is $1400 gold 50% off its 2010-2011 highs? None of that was my point, only that since he bought the gold so low, whether gold rises a hundred or falls a hundred doesn't really affect his overall position. For others, if gold spikes a couple hundred, then goes flat again for a long while, and they want out, they are buried - as over the years I have read a few posters here lament that fact.
See my quote below -
Well Gosh JM, nothing in my post suggested either my pops or myself knows. I just don't think it has much upside. I don't know in an absolute sense, but I am certain it won't. Since I am certain it won't, I don't buy gold.
Why? - IMO the fed is fighting deflation, and a massive black hole of deflation when the debt implodes. Gold will go with it.
I don't know in an absolute sense, I am just certain of it.
To your point, I would say that gold isn't debt and anything involving debt is likely to go into that black hole. Nominal numbers might change, but the gold and silver will still be there. Anything tied to debt won't, i.e., mortgages & corporate bonds. It used to look like the only way out would be either default or inflation. Now, maybe not.
Now, it looks like the banks simply might end up owning all assets, as long as they can create money and buy the assets with it, under the guise of fighting deflation. Like Japan is finding out now. The banks, and their elitist corporate officers are about the only beneficiaries of this.
Individuals can buy assets in an attempt to escape deflation, but don't have the advantage of creating their own free money with the multiplier of fractional reserve currency to buy assets. As long as the country remains productive, nobody notices much - just like the boiling frog. If enough people lose their standard of living, there will be a big problem, but the banks will deflect the blame from themselves somehow.
I knew it would happen.
It all about timing. Have never been able predict it.
I do try maintain decent gold position relative to inventory investment.
The free market price of gold actually went UP during the Great Depression of 1929-1933 (and not just because Roosevelt confiscated the gold in 1933 at $20.67 and then revalued the official price to $35).
And gold also went on a good run starting at the beginning of the Great Recession of 2008.
Both of the above episodes were basically "debt implosions".
So, has anyone done the math?
For example, how many weeks (say over 5 years) has gold gone up more than 3%, gone down more than 3%, or whatever.
Maybe out of 250 point, up 42, down 86, effectively unchanged 128.
Now, for those same 250 points, how many weeks did what Ray Dalio match what happened?
How often is is SELL NOW ?
Or was it BUY 238 weeks, and on vacation the other 22.
YEAR USD USD%
2019 1425.34 10.97
2018 1284.43 -0.93
2017 1296.5 10.6
2016 1189.49 8.5
2015 1096.3 -10.01
2014 1206 0.12
2013 1204.5 -37.61
2012 1657.5 7.63
2011 1531 8.2
2010 1405.5
So, over that last roughly 9 years, a net gain of $20, or .15% annual rate of return. This even gets past the big rise.
Hmmm would that be considered "bigly"? lulz
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
In the 08-09 episode, gold sold off about 20%, then did very well, but that could have been due to the never before tried, massive QE program that had people fearing inflation.
A debt implosion is a wipe-out, which is very unlikely - a market correction is what I meant to suggest. A major market correction is very likely and gold will respond to this on the downside IMO. It will be the fed's reaction that will determine how gold reacts going forward, during and after the correction.
There will be a window when the market corrects and asset prices are falling where metals could potentially be a much better buy.
I could be wrong, but it doesn't worry me. I would rather wait to see how gold does in a panic than to buy it after a ten year asset expansion pumped up and artifically expanded by the Federal Reserve's low interest rate policy - longest expansion in history. Upsides always have a downsides. I am earning 4% now, so it is like me owning gold and seeing it rise $50.00
Dalio doesn't buy physical like us plebes, he buys and plays the paper markets - in and out. Dalio can also use option strategies to hedge his positions, physical buyers cannot.
Lastly, what kind of a valuable asset is it that has maybe a half dozen places in a large metro area where you can buy and sell your gold fairly?
Ray Dalio ignited a fire with Wall Streeters
I note more money managers getting on board .
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Ray is on of my favorites, as noted on the first comment on this board when gold was 1,425/ounce
.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Sorry for duplicate post.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
$300 dollar move up from last August . Not bad.
Did you hold your gold ?
I sold a little on the way but kept most.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
When it hits $1200...
Many successful BST transactions with dozens of board members, references on request.
Where did all the parking-lot saints go?
There were zillions of them last time I looked....POOF
My Saint Set
Looks like Ray made a good call.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
Hadn’t Dalio been touting gold nonstop for years now?
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Maybe as a hedge but not like his call las August when he mentioned it in the context of a paradigm shift
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Not sure I'd classify a global pandemic as a paradigm shift, but that's certainly what's responsible for the majority of the move since August.
And the smart money was buying for years now.
Gold is not bought to protect one from a pandemic. It is bought to protect one from what happens when a pandemic pulls back the curtain on a weak economy.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
The economy was fine before the pandemic. The structure, integrity and finances of the government, not so much.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
The economy was not fine. If it were fine, consumers and corporations could have hunkered down. But with no savings and lots of debt, hunkering is not an option. The only option is free money for all.
Consumers surviving paycheck to paycheck and corporations with no cash because they spent it all on stock buybacks is far from a sign of a strong economy.
Do not confuse a Federal Reserve fueled stock market with a strong economy. They are two entirely different animals.
Pandemic just lit the fuse of a fully armed time bomb.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
Well, yes and no. Just consider that savings are likely weaker than they would have been if income taxes were lower, people weren’t forced and incentivized to save for their retirements in untouchable accounts, and unemployment insurance wasn’t mandatory. Or consider that tax policy is a major driver for stock buybacks. I could go on and on, but this probably isn’t the place.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I have a lot of money in stocks, bonds and CDs, and lesser amounts in collector coins, other collectibles and gold bullion pieces. Frankly I don’t know if any of that is any good because the medical people, who know nothing about economics and business, and could care less, are acting like they want to run the show.
When I read that some scientific loon wants to run things like we have it now until 2022, I’ll tell him to his face that is not viable. He will have a social insurrection on his hands that will dwarf this virus. Even if the some of the protesters catch the bug, those that don’t will prevail. A break will have to be made. Some lives will be lost, but this can’t go on forever in a civil society.
Judging from the premiums on any 1 ounce gold, often over $200, it appears Ray has a lot of company.
Wasn't a really hard call either. About the simplest TA/charting possible with long base forming a very symmetric 6 yr - inverse head and shoulders pattern.....target projection from that pattern was a minimum of $1703. A 6 year (rule of 4) chart breakout taking out previous resistance at $1375, then filling old - resistanct gaps from 2013 at $1389 and $1413. Once that moved occurred it was clear sailing up to the former $1650 crash dive point from spring 2013 was a given. Icing on the cake was that the strong (point of recognition) up move occurred in month 10 (half way point) of what is typically an 18-22 month gold cycle....now in month 20. Ray was just confirming basic TA and charting analysis.
Add to the above a correction of 51 months from 2011 peak to 2015 low. And then 51 months from 2015 low to the March peak. Symmetry galore. Martin Armstrong's ECM model has been dead on with gold for 20 yrs now. His decades old model strongly suggested a 4.3 yr up move for gold from Sept 2015 to January 2020. Gold is now working on retracing some or all of the "whipsaw" left shoulder from 2011-2012....ranging from $1522-$1923. Easy Peasy.
My daughter runs a social work agency... that community is projecting, and I haven't heard anyone refute, that they expect to lose 6x more people from depression if the shutdown lasts just 3 months than we will from the disease. I choose to believe that science will prevail enough to turn this around. In the meantime, I'll continue to collect coins.
Dalio gave two reasons for his correct call, both of which included "currency depreciation," but did not include TA/charting:
investments that "will most likely do best will be those that do well when the value of money is being depreciated and domestic and international conflicts are significant, such as gold."
In what he calls a "paradigm shift:" "I believe that monetizations of debt and currency depreciations will eventually pick up, which will reduce the value of money and real returns for creditor." I agree with the prognosis but disagree that it is a paradigm shift as it has been the FED's Modus Operandi ever since the last crisis.
It's refreshing to see another highly respected money professional actually linking the need for gold to the reckless treatment of the currency. It's almost as if he is promoting an "insurance" policy against currency destruction.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
He’s just echoing what I’ve said since 1964.
“Easy peasy” in hindsight. And when you talk about a move being “a given” it strains credibility. I say that despite the fact that I’m convinced you’re extremely knowledgeable on the subject.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
It’s true that medical professionals and scientists aren’t considering the economy as their main objective. Thank God
Bill, I think you are at retirement age so it won’t be you on the front line if they try to start the economy too soon. It will be retail associates, Uber drivers, baggage handlers, TSA, tellers, servers etc. You won’t be the one possibly sacrificing a life to save your portfolio. Everyone is brave with someone else’s lives. I will gladly tell you that to your face or any politician or talking head on TV.
I have faith in science, medical professionals and true economists. I have zero faith with politicians.
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Then they will say "Buy Gold while the price is down"
Lafayette Grading Set
I made a comment about Ray in August of 2019, he hit another one on the head, way to go
No matter the reason he was correct so far. I’m giving him a W on this one
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
There are people involved here that into the power trip they are getting out of this. I responded to the comment these guys are talking about keeping this going, as it is now until 2022. I will repeat, that is untenable.
As for doctors, many are great; some of them are very bad news. I have been to a couple bad ones, and not get out of there fast enough. One was totally arrogant and totally incompetent.
The people saved will be the old and sick and the ones who replace them will be the young and healthy.
I'm trying to stay optimistic that a JIT economy can be restarted after it has shut down.
I just heard Dr. Phil agree with me on this total shut-down issue. There are side effects to this that will become worse than the virus. This shut-down can’t continue for another two months, let alone two years in its current form.
It has already done irreparable damage.