Predictions for Summer ANA
MrEureka
Posts: 24,347 ✭✭✭✭✭
Nobody knows for sure, but I’m somewhat confident that the show and auctions will take place. And I’m very confident that if they take place, the attendance will be strong and the action intense. The thing that’s unclear to me is whether coins will be scarce or abundant. What do you think?
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
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I wouldn't be confident of anything at this point. We haven't seen anything yet, regarding the progress of the pandemic in the U. S. It will be really bad in late April-June, depending on the state.
Auctions can still take place, via the internet.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
I am taking the under on this bet
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My opinion? No go.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
My guess, wont happen and if it does attendance/sales will be slower than usual as most people will just be getting out from under lockdown and have less money to spend.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
i think the chances of the actual show aren't optimistic but I believe the auction(s) around the show should do very good.
My guess, All needs to return to near normal by the 4th of July to get people to think about hotels, flights, food in Chicago. Probably too early to return to normalcy.
More people buying coins over internet now since home lock down. I expect ANA will have an auction, Chicago or elsewhere. It will not be as successful as past sales but online bidding will be stronger.
Do underestimate the loss of wealth in stock market, collectors feel poorer. If optimists prevail and market roars back in a month or so as Trump predicts, Maybe convention happens. I'm not betting on it and would be worried
about the success of my no minimum consignments in that auction.
Most of us have left our 20's-30's in the dust, and are more at risk. I for one will be enjoying the summer at/near my home with my family in Colorado. Maybe pick up some auction bargains with home delivery, maybe not.
My best wishes to all involved. Be safe
Correction:
"Do NOT underestimate the loss of wealth" J.P.
Summer ANA happening is very very very optimistic IMHO. Like everyone else I’m hoping for it to happen. For sure I’m not going to be going regardless. I’m shooting for a Fall LB as my gateway.
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I'm writing off 2020 and looking ahead to 2021...
I think all large shows will be closed for the rest of the year and into early next year. My guess is the next large show will be March 2021 Baltimore.
I assume that ANA will be delayed, not cancelled
Sunshine Rare Coins
sunshinecoins.com/store/c1/Featured_Products.html
August? Maybe. The way the curve looks so far seems that the US will peak before the end of April. But much depends on how it evolves in other countries as that can cause a second surge. So maybe... but I hope not.
My guess is it is toast.
CC is closed and they are the host venue. CC decides on April 17th. Trump postcards say it will be the end of April before our USA' 2nd extended closure ends, maybe...
Gov. Polis has shut down Colorado.
I risk a $1000 fine if I do not have paperwork for travel in state or in town via automobile till May. I have seen multiple (3) motorcycle cops in heart of Colorado Springs on I-25 when I ventured out. I am done shopping, done with 1-25, as I cannot afford $1000 and/or get sent to prison for a year to pay Polis' penalty toll.
Colorado is taking this seriously, as should anyone who cares to survive and who wants enable their loved ones to survive.
Lindy
@KOYNGUY. ANA in Pittsburgh this year, Chicago next year. I hope that Pittsburgh comes off and that I can get there, as I am getting an award from the ANA and hope to win a Heath Literary Award as well.
Pittsburgh, PA August 4-8, 2020
ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
Thanks Tom,
I hope you make it to Pittsburgh and back safely. Buy a refundable ticket. I am not going either way.
Congratulations, J.P.
Couple of things--even if it peaks, we will have to see how the residual infections linger, which could extend well into the summer.
Second, the 1918 flu hit hard the second time around, and we could see that arising as we move back into fall.
Of course, all unknowns at this point, but I think early August ANA happening would be extremely optimistic.
Gonna get me a $50 Octagonal someday. Some. Day.
I truly hope that it occurs but at this point I don't think it will be happening. However, it is too early to tell for sure.
ANA-LM, CWTS-LM, NBS, TAMS, ANS
I'd be very surprised (and pleased) if there is an in person ANA show.
I sure hope it goes as planned. I have been to 50 consecutive ANA shows.
Tell me about it!
I've written off the next 6 months. Am concerned about the residual psychological effect of the crisis on people. Along with a possible backlash of the virus if it is not completely eradicated first time around.
I imagine that my other hobby (passion) is shut down for the year, as well. Competitive fencing has been shut down for the last few weeks and I am waiting for the US National Championships this summer to be cancelled. That would be crummy for the sport and especially so for me since I qualified to participate this year.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
I get the point! 😆
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
They should post an April Fool's showcasing a new competitive event where people fence at least a 2 meters apart!
Well, the rules of fencing stipulate that you start four meters apart...Here is a personal highlight of my own from the 2019-2020 fencing season where I defeated a former Olympian in a bout-
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
Auctions - probably. Especially if they figure out a way to do in-person lot viewing.
Show - I really doubt it. And I kind of hope not. The New York Antiquarian Book Fair was held March 6-8 just before things got bad. This is arguably the premier high-end antiquarian book event of the year. Several thousand book collectors and dealers in a hall in NYC, the vast majority over 60 and many well north of that. I just read there are 7 confirmed cases among attendees. I suspect that is only a fraction of the true number. The hobby conceivably could lose a non trivial number of its most active collectors and dealers. Sounds eerily similar to what could happen at the ANA.
LIBERTY SEATED DIMES WITH MAJOR VARIETIES CIRCULATION STRIKES (1837-1891) digital album
In the photo, those hands look closer than 1 meter.
But that's an awesome photo and accomplishment. Are there any videos of you in action?
A regulation strip is 14-meters in length, but once you become en garde you are each two meters removed from the center line (thus, the four meters separation at the start) and then you may move up and down the strip at will as long as you don't go off the end-line with both feet. There are times when one or both fencers will flèche (abruptly run at the other fencer with weapon arm fully extended) and the collisions can be pretty hard.
In that bout, our heads are likely near two meters apart since we are both taller than six foot and both have long arms. I don't know of any videos with me in them, at least not good videos, but I know I have a few more photos of fencing some international fencers and the venues where we fence. Here is an image of the fencing salle before a major competition at Drew University in NJ this past October-
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
I just finished watching the PBS American Experience episode on the 1918 Spanish Flu (the show was made in 1998). The similarities today are obvious.
In 1918 virtually nothing was known about viruses. Social distancing appears to have been largely ignored with dire results.
Taking social distancing seriously may be what saves us this time around. Conventions are the opposite of social distancing
and should be avoided until this is really over.
My guess is that the convention will not be held. The auctions may be held but I wouldn't want to be a consignor.
Epee! Phone home!
I'd say 50-50 at best on holding it and, even if they do, attendance will be way down. For every person that is anxious to go, another regular will be gun shy. The auctions, where ever they are held, will do fine. Right now, with no shows, auctions are the only game in town for the serious coins.
I assume that ANA will be delayed, not cancelled
That won't happen. Even if other dates are available at the Convention Center, which is doubtful, anything in the Fall would likely conflict with another show like Baltimore or Long Beach. Push it back further and do you really want to go to Pittsburgh in the winter? No, it's August or bust.
Member ANA, SPMC, SCNA, FUN, CONECA
I'm not a prognosticator. I'm not looking to the experts for their take on the future, either. That said, I predict toilet paper will come off a roll faster.
I won't be going either. With my wife's auto-immune problems I just can't take that chance. I'm hoping for winter FUN in Jan. 2021.
Let's wait and see what the protocol will be moving forward.
Until there is a vaccine why take the chance if you or someone you live with is at risk?
I hope the A.N.A. says by the end of May if the show is a go or no go, or before the dealer's pick their tables.
If the show does happen it won't be that good of one anyways.
The wisest man in the room! Take good care of her.
+1
Tom B, really?? You learn something new about someone every day. My college roomie was a fencer at Rutgers. His coach, Charles Peshty was an Olympian in his day. I used to go to the fencing matches at RU (with 3 other people). Charles was my gym teacher one semester and gave me unlimited "passes" because I attended the matches.
carolinacollectorcoins.com
Charles dePeshty was before my time, but I also fenced as an undergraduate at Rutgers!
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
How we do it out West
Truly, that is how most folks do it, as well.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
The second wave (September-December 1918) was much more deadly than the first wave. My great-grandfather left work on Monday early, feeling poorly. He died of pneumonia on Wednesday when he should have been in New York addressing the Brass Manufacturers Annual Convention.
https://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-pandemic-response-cities
Philadelphia held the War Bonds rally in late September.
St Louis "flattened the curve"
ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
At this point, the best move, for all concerned, would be to cancel the show. Watching the government committee reports, those charts clearly showed the forecasted peak and abatement periods. An abatement is a lessening of infections/deaths, not a cessation of transmission. Much is still to be learned and experienced, however, I would say avoid social contacts for the next six to eight months. My opinion based on the reported data/projections. Cheers, RickO
Summer ANA? Are you kidding?
Don’t believe it will be happening. We are in really bad times with no end in sight. Once there is a cure or vaccine you can start trying predict then. We have no idea of the economic fallout (bankruptcies, debt default) which will get worse the more this go on. Suggest you monitor Richard’s columns (excellent market analyst) at NN. Right now staying alive should be a priority.
No end to stupidity. Coins more important than breathing a room full of bad breath and taking it home just in time for the second wave.
I just hope my dental offices are allowed to open by then. If not buying coins will be the last thing on my mind for a very long time
Whether the next big show is the 2020 ANA or the 2028 FUN or whatever, the question remains. Will the supply of coins be awesomely full of many months or years of stockpiled newps, or will inventories be severely depleted, or will it be just another typical coin show?
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.