Black Swan
Comments
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How big a swan are you looking for? With all the chatter about swans, it is unlikely to see a big one soon. They tend to come when folks are complacent, and talk of "tail risk" and "black swans" is the stuff for moldy old academic papers instead of being repeated over and over on the financial news and in popular books and now even movies.
/edit to add: let me define again typical historic SHTF: 25% of the American population dead or crippled, USA no longer on current world maps. That's SHTF not the namby-pamby financial video game most forumites seem to think about.
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As noted above, short of a "physical disaster" it appears that
The Bernanke can easily keep the kite up in the air for a very
long time.
Gasoline at $10 a gallon would cause some disruptions and
some civil "protests," but any breakdown of "order" would
be dealt with quickly/harshly.
As long as the expectant class continues to get their checks
and the banksters can continue to gamble with free/stolen
cash, a Black Swan - spawned solely by financial issues - will
not likely visit us soon.
.............
Folks need to profit in the current climate --- it will not last
forever. Folks should use this time to place themselves above
the eventual "troubles."
Folks Who Bite Get Bitten. Folks Who Don't Bite Get Eaten.0 -
Black swans by definition are unpredictable and normally out of the reach of those who control the economy.....but they sure are good for PMs.
Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else. - Bastiat
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<< <i>...
/edit to add: let me define again typical historic SHTF: 25% of the American population dead or crippled, USA no longer on current world maps. That's SHTF not the namby-pamby financial video game most forumites seem to think about. >>
I agree with RT's definition of SHTF, perhaps even >% loss ( I was called a 'wacko' or something other when positing this position, prior to the threads trying to get a consensus to what SHTF means to PM forum members; Gecko thread iirc-- no consensus, all over the place). Most of us won't be around to say "Aha, told you so."
I'm not sure why I felt the need to say it again, because I pray for the best and prepare for 'the worst' within our means and within reason. No Jeremiah Johnson here; we keep covenant in like-minded community with folks of all walks of life and different skill sets. It's not like building a 150 year boat project, having never seen rain before. There have been lots of good posts on the basic things households can do to be reasonably prepared for even serious/ major stuff. But Black Swan leading to SHTF...we're back to definitions again. No sense losing sleep over it either.Do your best to avoid circular arguments, as it will help you reason better, because better reasoning is often a result of avoiding circular arguments.0 -
coronavirus the next black swan? Definitely fits the definition.
Like Schiff says, "gold is climbing a wall of worry."
Appears ground zero is home to China's premier Ultra Biohazard lab
Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else. - Bastiat
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@RedTiger said:
How big a swan are you looking for? With all the chatter about swans, it is unlikely to see a big one soon. They tend to come when folks are complacent, and talk of "tail risk" and "black swans" is the stuff for moldy old academic papers instead of being repeated over and over on the financial news and in popular books and now even movies./edit to add: let me define again typical historic SHTF: 25% of the American population dead or crippled, USA no longer on current world maps. That's SHTF not the namby-pamby financial video game most forumites seem to think about.
Whatever happened to RedTiger, he used to be a frequent contributor here?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
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Is-a-Red-Tiger-event-opposite-of-a-Black-Swan?
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I would say that real black swan events are rarely, if ever, predictable....One can hypothesize, but that is not really a prediction. Cheers, RickO
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This thread appears to have begun while the metals were spiking in 2011. A lot has happened since.
If I were to guess at the biggest potential for a black swan event, it would still be related to the banking system, derivatives and debt. The thing about the debt is that it's no longer just about sovereign debt. Now, it's the hedge funds, municipal & state debt, student debt, corporate debt AND sovereign debt.
Like I say, when somebody doesn't get their payoff, somebody's gonna be pissed.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I knew it would happen.0 -
So, China has to sell its US Treasuries.... big deal.
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So, China has to sell its US Treasuries.... big deal.
At the risk of being repetitive,
The thing about the debt is that it's no longer just about sovereign debt. Now, it's the hedge funds, municipal & state debt, student debt, corporate debt AND sovereign debt.
Like I say, when somebody doesn't get their payoff, somebody's gonna be pissed. (Hint - It's not the big boys who won't get their payoff.)
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I knew it would happen.0 -
A veritable potpourri of crap.
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@derryb said:
coronavirus the next black swan? Like Schiff says, "gold is climbing a wall of worry."Appears ground zero is home to China's premier Ultra Biohazard lab
Yeah, I’m a bit skeptic that the market is the actual cause of the outbreak. China has way too much control over their countries’ information, so we will never know for sure. One of their “premier” bio-labs is 8 miles away from that market which is being blamed for the outbreak.
If anyone is familiar with the 1918 Spanish flu, the reason it spread so widely, quickly and lethal is because countries suppressed their media(s) from reporting on it to not show weakness during WWI. That allows it to spread far and wide before populations could be made aware of it and before health organizations could prepare for it.
This is similar to China not reporting the coronavirus for over a month and now the chickens are underreporting the number of affected and dead. To complicate matters, we entered the Chinese New Year where hundreds of millions of Chinese are traveling, allowing this to be spread worldwide.
Should be an interesting few weeks...
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Will probably be political rather than financial.
Excuses are tools of the ignorantKnowledge is the enemy of fear
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Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else. - Bastiat
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Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else. - Bastiat
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@cohodk said:
Will probably be political rather than financial.PM markets currently reflecting fear and uncertainty. But like every other global event it will eventually involve international criticism and blame. Like they say, "never pass up an opportunity."
Claims made by greatgameindia.com (website now shut down) that the virus was stolen from a Canadian lab late last year by chinese agents who took it to the Wuhan lab with plans to weaponize it.
Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else. - Bastiat
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opportunity abounds, no matter if it’s a duck.
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weaponize the flu?
Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions0 -
@MsMorrisine said:
weaponize the flu?biological warfare has been around for centuries.
Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else. - Bastiat
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With almost 60M people on government quarantine....gotta wonder if something went wrong.
Do you trust what we’ve heard??
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it's the flu and sars was more lethal, why steal something?
luckily I've had my anti-weapon shot this season.
Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions0 -
@MsMorrisine said:
it's the flu and sars was more lethal, why steal something?It's a different and new form of a coronavirus which makes it desirable for study if you are in the bio weapons business. There is no known vaccine and it is known to mutate easily, which makes it much more dangerous than the flu.
Current numbers from mainland China show a rapid spreading of the virus (if their numbers can be trusted, probably much higher). It also shows a sudden increase of a mortality rate from 3% to 5% in just days:
luckily I've had my anti-weapon shot this season.
Then feel free to travel to Wahun. Your flu shot card should allow you unrestricted movement about the province while 50 million others there are prevented from travel.
Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else. - Bastiat
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Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else. - Bastiat
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no doubt the flu strains in the flu shot are different. I was just highlighting that the flu is not really useful as a weapon. there are vaccines and the natural immune system.
the Wuhan coronavirus is virulent and lethal, but most of these deaths are people with weak immune systems, e.g. elderly, infants, cancer patients undergoing treatment. one of the usa cases had the person in good condition earlier today.
Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions0 -
Everyone having fun except 'Merica.
Excuses are tools of the ignorantKnowledge is the enemy of fear
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The fun will spread. China's a pretty big part of the world's supply system.
Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else. - Bastiat
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Got to love the doom and gloom around this place. Stack on!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Retiring at 55, what day is today?
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Everyone having fun except 'Merica.
'Merica?
What's that supposed to signify?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I knew it would happen.0 -
YeeYee!!!
Excuses are tools of the ignorantKnowledge is the enemy of fear
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I was thinking more Team America "fuc* yeah"
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@ShadyDave said:
I was thinking more Team America "fuc* yeah"Now your talking you MalaFala! Semper Fi!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Retiring at 55, what day is today?0 -
@ShadyDave said:
I was thinking more Team America "* yeah"Im with ya, but was concerned for the tender ones amongst us. There be rules now...careful fellas.
Excuses are tools of the ignorantKnowledge is the enemy of fear
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By the way I see a rebound in the stock market in the morning.
Now riding the swell in PM's and surf.0 -
buy chicken soup.
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@MilesWaits said:
By the way I see a rebound in the stock market in the morning.How do you feel about silver?
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
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I'll just leave this here...
"The charging documents, unsealed Tuesday, allege that under the Thousand Talents contract Lieber was paid $50,000 in monthly salary by China's Wuhan University of Technology and another $158,000 in living expenses. He was also awarded some $1.74 million to set up a research lab there."
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YeeYee!!!
Fair enough!
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I knew it would happen.0 -
@jmlanzaf said:
@MilesWaits said:
By the way I see a rebound in the stock market in the morning.How do you feel about silver?
I like its color. Not over the gold color, though.
Now riding the swell in PM's and surf.0 -
@mhammerman said:
Are we in a proper situation to anticipate that a financial black swan event may occur? Was contemplating all the talking heads prognosticating about what is going to happen but they are all talking changes in degree of things and not changes in kind. It's In chaos, one would think it was fertile ground for a black swan to appear. Hummmmmmm...No idea but would like to have the senate dismiss at this point because no Political gain to either part the push a shame and violate the basic concept procedures. Pam Bondi knocked it out of park. I really hope they don’t pass this just to take Trump off the ballot. What a slap to the People.
On a good note I was able to short the Bolton book release story and it did not make the 48 hour test so I win some Benjamin’s.Best place to buy !
Bronze Associate member0 -
@ShadyDave said:
@derryb said:
coronavirus the next black swan? Like Schiff says, "gold is climbing a wall of worry."Appears ground zero is home to China's premier Ultra Biohazard lab
Yeah, I’m a bit skeptic that the market is the actual cause of the outbreak. China has way too much control over their countries’ information, so we will never know for sure. One of their “premier” bio-labs is 8 miles away from that market which is being blamed for the outbreak.
If anyone is familiar with the 1918 Spanish flu, the reason it spread so widely, quickly and lethal is because countries suppressed their media(s) from reporting on it to not show weakness during WWI. That allows it to spread far and wide before populations could be made aware of it and before health organizations could prepare for it.
This is similar to China not reporting the coronavirus for over a month and now the chickens are underreporting the number of affected and dead. To complicate matters, we entered the Chinese New Year where hundreds of millions of Chinese are traveling, allowing this to be spread worldwide.
Should be an interesting few weeks...
@ShadyDave said:
@derryb said:
coronavirus the next black swan? Like Schiff says, "gold is climbing a wall of worry."Appears ground zero is home to China's premier Ultra Biohazard lab
Yeah, I’m a bit skeptic that the market is the actual cause of the outbreak. China has way too much control over their countries’ information, so we will never know for sure. One of their “premier” bio-labs is 8 miles away from that market which is being blamed for the outbreak.
If anyone is familiar with the 1918 Spanish flu, the reason it spread so widely, quickly and lethal is because countries suppressed their media(s) from reporting on it to not show weakness during WWI. That allows it to spread far and wide before populations could be made aware of it and before health organizations could prepare for it.
This is similar to China not reporting the coronavirus for over a month and now the chickens are underreporting the number of affected and dead. To complicate matters, we entered the Chinese New Year where hundreds of millions of Chinese are traveling, allowing this to be spread worldwide.
Should be an interesting few weeks...
I am well familiar with the annual New Years forced scheduled visit the farm events and it’s a Port clearing nightmare. It takes 2-3 weeks depending on China backlogs. They smooth out the production to avoid overtime and mass layoffs. Then when they come back from deep in jungle poor neighborhoods. You loose 25% of your worker retention and the training and ramp back up takes 3-4 weeks to build back to 80-85% uptime. This is also when all debts are paid down to Zero in accordance to the Bank of China and Shanghai Bank. What a Joy.
Best place to buy !
Bronze Associate member0 -
@derryb said:
Scientific simulation reveals such a disease could kill 65 million people within 18 months under the right circumstances.@MsMorrisine said:
it's the flu and sars was more lethal, why steal something?It's a different and new form of a coronavirus which makes it desirable for study if you are in the bio weapons business. There is no known vaccine and it is known to mutate easily, which makes it much more dangerous than the flu.
Current numbers from mainland China show a rapid spreading of the virus (if their numbers can be trusted, probably much higher). It also shows a sudden increase of a mortality rate from 3% to 5% in just days:
luckily I've had my anti-weapon shot this season.
Then feel free to travel to Wahun. Your flu shot card should allow you unrestricted movement about the province while 50 million others there are prevented from travel.
This looks like the stock indexes. Even if they did go down, they could never go down to prior levels. The DoW was just at 1,000 in 1980.
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Rumor has it ( from 90%+ reliable source ) that plane load of Americans returning to USA from China with a refueling stop in Anchorage landing in Ontario...are being quarantined at a hospital near Palm Springs.
Situation in China far worse than being reported. 15% of infected carry no symptoms. Some have 20 day incubation, then quick fever, then poof.
Source is my gun show buddy, ex sp. forces USN,(many contacts in Asia) with wife working for American Co. near Beijing who just made it out.
His suggestion is to make sure you can be comfortable in your home w/o leaving for 30 days. Just in case WHO can't get a handle on this.Have a nice day0 -
Mother Nature culling the herd. She has been remarkably consistent throughout time.
Loves me some shiny!
“Often wrong, but never in doubt.”0 -
Holy carp some people scare easily!!! LolExcuses are tools of the ignorantKnowledge is the enemy of fear
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I really appreciate this thread and the thoughtful input.
Please try to resist infecting it with politics.Now riding the swell in PM's and surf.0 -
With a burgeoning world population and massive, easy and far-flung travel, it's quite reasonable to be concerned about possible pandemics.
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1/29/20 10 a.m. EST latest worldwide numbers:
Reported cases: 6151
Reported deaths: 132Government is the great fiction through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else. - Bastiat
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700 people die every day in China as the result of car accidents. Thats 250,000 every year..or the equivalent of the population of Buffalo or Reno.
Not belittleing anything. Just offering perspective.
Excuses are tools of the ignorantKnowledge is the enemy of fear
3
https://youtu.be/MNC33xbVpzs
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