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Black Swan

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  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @blitzdude said:

    Keep the body count coming! go gold!! Congrats on your new found wealth!!!

    Keep the body count coming? Really?

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:

    Please provide a source that backs up your statement that "many viruses have multi-week incubation periods", or at least stop with your bogus contention that anyone who takes an opposing view is somehow brainwashed by "the alt-right".

    lol.

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/symptoms.html

    BOOM!!! LOL.

    So you see, incubation can be between 2-14 days, which is the same as other similar virus. To say an incubation time of 15 days doesn't occur in nature normally, which is why he thinks that this was a bioweapon strain, is not only conjecture and incorrect, it is misleading, false, ignorant and just plain stupid. Comments like this only stoke fear and mistrust---EXACTLY what THEY want.

    Wuhan corona virus average incubation looks to be about 6 days.
    https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/scientists-zero-in-on-the-novel-coronavirus-incubation-period--67045

    I could give a rats arse if you have an opposing view. But I do think its important that you have an educated view.

    The BLACK SWAN is the proliferation of lies and misinformation spread by the interweb. Imagine a society where everything is viewed as a hoax or fake news. Where the speech of the biggest and loudest liar become fact. We have already had stated on this form that perception is fact. What kind of a country and society do we have if misinformation is readily accepted and fact is contested? Danger Will Rogers. Danger.

    And here is a list of common viruses, many with multi-week incubations. Boom again!!

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/medicine-and-dentistry/incubation-time
    http://www.virology.ws/2014/10/08/the-incubation-period-of-a-viral-infection/

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,077 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 2, 2020 9:16AM

    @derryb said:

    @MsMorrisine said:
    when does the black swan take flight?

    Dec. 6, 2019

    so.

    it was 1550 in september.

    it was 1575 in early january. why did it sell off?

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,077 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Beyond Coronavirus: 5 Black Swans That Could Imperil Financial Markets

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/5-black-swans-that-could-ruffle-financial-markets-51580488644

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  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,077 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 2, 2020 12:06PM

    1.

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  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,077 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 2, 2020 12:17PM

    2.

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  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,077 ✭✭✭✭✭

    3.

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,077 ✭✭✭✭✭

    4.

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  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,077 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 2, 2020 12:26PM

    5.

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  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,077 ✭✭✭✭✭

    the 5 black swans so you don't have to read barron's

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • ShadyDaveShadyDave Posts: 2,196 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I’m not sure why people are against speculation. Are we causing a panic? We know what the Communist Chinese government want us to know, and it isn’t much. The financial reports put out by China are widely known to be misleading information as well...

    I’m not worried about this becoming the next Black Plague, but I don’t think there is anything wrong with some critical thinking and asking some questions.

    If China reported that there are no Uighur Muslims held in concentration camps, would you believe them? Why is it out of the realm of possibility and no acceptable to think that this virus could have POTENTIALLY come from an infectious disease lab 8 miles from the reported epicenter???

    I have no problem believing what the CDC, WHO etc state, however, I don’t see any issue with scrutinizing what they say either.

    There are many “conspiracies” proven throughout history, so please let me know if you guys need examples.

    The scientific community is also going through a “replication” crisis, where peer reviewed results are not reproducible. Should we not scrutinize those studies either? Lol.

    https://www.nature.com/collections/prbfkwmwvz

    I prefer to come to my own decisions, and sometimes I’m wrong. Just because an origination is part of a government, or is a 100 year old “prestigious” company or school, doesn’t mean they are never wrong or have ulterior motives... long story short, be open and think critically for yourself.

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,077 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 2, 2020 3:00PM

    So far, 10,000 people have died and 180,000 people have been hospitalized

    https://tinyurl.com/ufekyp5

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  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,291 ✭✭✭✭✭

    So, a couple years ago I picked APT in our little investment contest, in another thread. It's those black swan events that kept me adding to the position for a couple years.... until I saw this thread and read the news.


    Sold.

  • ShadyDaveShadyDave Posts: 2,196 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Thanks for the first hand account from China @renman95, this is probably the most useful information in this thread.

    The Chinese markets are taking a BEATING this morning. Shanghai exchange is down over 7% on the effect the coronavirus may have on the Chinese economy:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/asia-markets-china-markets-coronavirus-caixin-manufacturing-pmi-in-focus.html

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,077 ✭✭✭✭✭

    80% of gdp and 90% exports under quarantine
    all apple stores closed
    2nd person-to-person transmission reported in usa

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  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭✭

    So if no one else is nearby, why bother using a mask? Do people think it is freely floating all throught the air?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,077 ✭✭✭✭✭

    and does it make a sound?

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  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,077 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 3, 2020 3:46PM

    @renman95 said:

    Well, my week-long adventure is about to end, off to New Delhi in the morning and then deadhead to the US via Newark, NJ. I pray that I can get into my country before this virus shuts down even more borders...

    may as well get to india, wally world china would be closed when you get there.

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,849 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Well, take it for what it's worth.

    Today's Zerohedge -

    Via GreatGameIndia.com,
    In an explosive interview Dr. Francis Boyle, who drafted the Biological Weapons Act has given a detailed statement admitting that the 2019 Wuhan Coronavirus is an offensive Biological Warfare Weapon and that the World Health Organization (WHO) already knows about it.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/creator-bioweapons-act-says-coronavirus-biological-warfare-weapon

    Francis Boyle is a professor of international law at the University of Illinois College of Law. He drafted the U.S. domestic implementing legislation for the Biological Weapons Convention, known as the Biological Weapons Anti-Terrorism Act of 1989, that was approved unanimously by both Houses of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by President George H.W. Bush.

    In an exclusive interview given to Geopolitics and Empire, Dr. Boyle discusses the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China and the Biosafety Level 4 laboratory (BSL-4) from which he believes the infectious disease escaped. He believes the virus is potentially lethal and an offensive biological warfare weapon or dual-use biowarfare weapons agent genetically modified with gain of function properties, which is why the Chinese government originally tried to cover it up and is now taking drastic measures to contain it.

    The Wuhan BSL-4 lab is also a specially designated World Health Organization (WHO) research lab and Dr. Boyle contends that the WHO knows full well what is occurring.

    Dr. Boyle also touches upon GreatGameIndia‘s exclusive report Coronavirus Bioweapon – where we reported in detail how Chinese Biowarfare agents working at the Canadian lab in Winnipeg were involved in the smuggling of Coronavirus to Wuhan’s lab from where it is believed to have been leaked.

    Dr. Boyle’s position is in stark contrast to the mainstream media’s narrative of the virus being originated from the seafood market, which is increasingly being questioned by many experts.

    Recently, American Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas also dismantled the mainstream media’s claim on Thursday that pinned the coronavirus outbreak on a market selling dead and live animals.

    In a video accompanying his post, Cotton explained that the Wuhan wet market (which Cotton incorrectly referred to as a seafood market) has been shown by experts to not be the source of the deadly contagion.

    Cotton referenced a Lancet study which showed that many of the first cases of the novel coronavirus, including patient zero, had no connection to the wet market — devastatingly undermining mainstream media’s claim.

    “As one epidemiologist said: ‘That virus went into the seafood market before it came out of the seafood market.’ We still don’t know where it originated,” Cotton said.

    “I would note that Wuhan also has China’s only bio-safety level four super laboratory that works with the world’s most deadly pathogens to include, yes, coronavirus.”

    (read the rest of the article on Zerohedge)

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • streeterstreeter Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭

    TomB
    "February 1, 2020 12:46PM
    I think it is a natural form of selection bias."

    Do you still hold to that opinion?

    Have a nice day
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • dpooledpoole Posts: 5,940 ✭✭✭✭✭

    For an escaped bioweapon, it sure has a lousy death rate.

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,077 ✭✭✭✭✭

    "He believes the virus is potentially lethal"

    no need to read further

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @dpoole said:
    For an escaped bioweapon, it sure has a lousy death rate.

    maybe it didn't escape and it's actually in the testing phase.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    So if no one else is nearby, why bother using a mask? Do people think it is freely floating all throught the air?

    After a week of this I found wearing the mask keeps you from touching your face. Apparently we touch our face about 2000 times per day.

    When I returned to my room after being out, I would first go to the sink and wash my hands before I took off the mask.

    For work I bought clear gloves, a packet of 40 hand sanitizers. I used the gloves for the cabin and cockpits checks. Once in my seat I spent a few minutes wiping everything down. Once the cabin door was closed and we’re ready to blast off, I removed the mask for the duration of the flight.

  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MsMorrisine said:

    @renman95 said:

    Well, my week-long adventure is about to end, off to New Delhi in the morning and then deadhead to the US via Newark, NJ. I pray that I can get into my country before this virus shuts down even more borders...

    may as well get to india, wally world china would be closed when you get there.

    We were held up for an hour in Delhi. They were surprised for to see us for some reason, lost in translation. Essentially we didn’t have proper health documentation. We had to backtrack, find the health-people and get the proper stamp. Back at immigration, more confusion, more talking amongst themselves,...finally, we get our passport stamped and free to enter. Anybody who’s been to India knows it’s all about the paperwork.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    The fun will spread. China's a pretty big part of the world's supply system.

    Supply chain breakdown accelerating.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    700 people die every day in China as the result of car accidents. Thats 250,000 every year..or the equivalent of the population of Buffalo or Reno.

    Not belittleing anything. Just offering perspective.

    Your perspective fails to consider the difference between the norm and the unknown.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,077 ✭✭✭✭✭

    what black swan caused gold to drop today?

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:
    700 people die every day in China as the result of car accidents. Thats 250,000 every year..or the equivalent of the population of Buffalo or Reno.

    Not belittleing anything. Just offering perspective.

    Your perspective fails to consider the difference between the norm and the unknown.

    Yeah...some people flounder in darkness while others use a flashlight.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @derryb said:
    The fun will spread. China's a pretty big part of the world's supply system.

    Supply chain breakdown accelerating.

    So they dont go to work today...they will next week.

    So they wont buy a car today...they will next week.

    No food in the store today...wll be next week.

    No gas today...will be next week.

    Temporary disruptions are normal and expected.

    Demand is just postponed....not canceled

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ShadyDave said:
    I’m not sure why people are against speculation. Are we causing a panic?

    Nothing wrong with speculation, just make sure its based on fact. Saying "incubation is 14 days which doesnt happen in nature so it must be a bioweapon" is irresponsible speculation based on untruths that can indeed lead to a panic.

    We have a responsibility to ourselves to act with prudence and accuracy.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,849 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Nothing wrong with speculation, just make sure its based on fact. Saying "incubation is 14 days which doesnt happen in nature so it must be a bioweapon" is irresponsible speculation based on untruths that can indeed lead to a panic.
    We have a responsibility to ourselves to act with prudence and accuracy.

    This (coronavirus) is a cold or flu type virus (at least before it mutates). Those types of viruses typically have a shorter incubation period than HIV (refer to the chart in the article you cited).

    Or do you think you know as much as the Bioweapons expert (Dr. Francis Boyle) I cited above - such that you can totally discount his observations? You simply can't dismiss bioweapons as a possibility without being completely oblivious.

    Yes, let's be responsible to ourselves enough not to dismiss all of the possibilities before we know the facts.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • streeterstreeter Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭

    JMSKI, you should know better than to ask that question. Of course he knows more.
    Real World experience too. From the anti Alt-rt boogie man playbook.
    I've noticed a pattern & I'm not a detective. Colonel Expert can immediately respond but he's hardly ever on the site. Responds minutes after someone posts. So --is lurking on one device & logs on & responds from another & logs off immediately. Weird.

    Have a nice day
  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,894 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Looks as if I've been black swanned. Uggg

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,077 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:

    Or do you think you know as much as the Bioweapons expert (Dr. Francis Boyle) I cited above

    the guy with the law degree?

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  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 4, 2020 2:13PM

    @MsMorrisine said:

    @jmski52 said:

    Or do you think you know as much as the Bioweapons expert (Dr. Francis Boyle) I cited above

    the guy with the law degree?

    . . . that wrote the Biological Weapons Anti-Terrorism Act of 1989?

    Yep, that's the guy.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 4, 2020 2:59PM

    @MsMorrisine said:
    and obama got obama care passed but knows nothing about practical health care

    But he did know how to enact it into law with his signature while having nothing to do with writing it's contents.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • MilesWaitsMilesWaits Posts: 5,356 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Could we please leave this thread intact without inserting political drama?!

    Now riding the swell in PM's and surf.
  • Unfortunately, this thread is not about precious metals and has gone too far off the rails discussing conspiracy theories and the virus itself.

    Heather Boyd
    PCGS Senior Director of Marketing

This discussion has been closed.