Understanding the Silver Eagle and the 2019S Reverse Proof. 29,775 Mintage
Ericj1996
Posts: 11 ✭✭
Some collectors stand either amazed or bewildered that an 2019S issue silver dollar is trading at such high prices in such a short period of time but its behavior is predictable IF you understand the Silver Eagle series. What it is, and the transition its about to go through. Lets look at a few basics.
Silver Eagles now have a total population of over half a billion coins and have a larger population than the Morgan did in 1904 before the Pittman Act melts. It’s the modern Morgan, and the Mint indicates that it’s going to change the reverse next year, effectively closing the series. Remember this series is subject to the law of 1890 requiring at least 25 years between design changes, so we are witnessing the close of the Type I Silver Eagle and the dawn of the Type II Silver Eagle.
The Morgan had a lot going for it. Large size, good looks, massive high-grade populations, cheap common dates, high bullion content and a wide variety in finishes ranging from frosted to proof like and proof not to mention multiple mint marks. The great melts gave Morgans another important characteristic that contributed to eventual series greatness, and that’s a great deal of stagger to the series populations. If you don’t have some key dates that are much harder to come by than the common dates, series don’t develop well. Morgans had all of this, and it’s the reason they went on to become a staple of the typical American coin collector.
The 1986 to 2020 Type I Silver Eagle has almost exactly the same structure. Large size, good looks, beyond massive high-grade populations, cheap common dates, high bullion content and a wide variety of finishes. From the start, the Type I Silver Eagle had consistently large mintages that did not offer key date mintages low enough to produce the kind of key date to common date mintage differentials needed to produce a meaningful collectable. That was until the Mint issued the 1995-W Proof Silver Eagle in the four-coin gold set. The hassle and expense of buying one was the anomaly that gave this great modern silver dollar series its first and badly needed noteworthy key.
“You still could buy the 95-W Proof for less than $500 in early 1996, but that seemed like an exorbitant price for a coin that was issued as a gift in a gold coin set 6 months prior and had a 30,000 mintage. Make no mistake about it, rarity is relative. Relative to the population of the series members and the number of people that collect it. The 95-W was an order of magnitude rarity in a popular and rapidly growing population, so the coin spent the next 20+ years appreciating into the roughly $3000 price range for PR-69 examples.
Now the Mint just issued the controversial 2019-S Enhanced Reverse Proof Silver Eagle to the cries of many and the momentary profit of others. But there is no way to distribute them in a seamless manner to everyone that wants one and still be rare enough to be noteworthy. This series needs a few harsh relative rarity keys to go on to greatness, and it now has them. They are the 1995-W Proof, the 2019-S Reverse Proof and the 2008-W mint state with reverse of 2007 and to a much lesser degree, the mint state 2011-S.
We don’t know what will come out next year for the sendoff of the Type I Silver Eagle, but frankly it may not matter as long as the design change takes place at the end of 2020. If the Mint Produces an even lower mintage special offering next year (which I highly doubt) then buy it even if it comes from the hand of someone with better luck than you. If not, we have workable keys for the largest silver dollar population the world has ever seen, and the keys will be set in stone.
The 2019s had a fairly high QC scrap rate and it may have ended up with a final mintage of 29,775 coins. Given that the 95-W in PR-69 is a roughly $2600 to $3000 coin, you can expect the 2019-S to move into this price range over the next 10 years, or less for a run of the mill example. The 2019-S PR70 price behavior is more difficult to project. Don’t assume that the fantastic 1995-W PR-70 prices running between $8,000 and $20,000 associated with the 95-W will show up on the 2019-S. That will depend on grade through rate. The 1995-W does not grade all that well, so 70s are hard to come by. If most of the 2019-S issues can make 70 (and many of them are) then the prices on them will fall well short of the 95-W in 70.
The Type I Silver Eagle, unlike some of the older dollars series, can be completed by mere mortals and probably has a bright future. If you like moderns, start picking up the better date Silver Eagles with sub-150,000 mintages while they are still looking for permanent homes because that’s nothing in a sea of over half billion coins.
The bottom line is the 2019s RP is the lowest mintage coin in the largest silver dollar series the world has ever seen.
Happy collecting....
Comments
Eric, welcome back. Your take on this issue almost overdue.
First post?
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Eric. Welcome back.
You mostly discuss the supply side and I agree with a good portion of your position.
But, the demand side has changed dramatically since your wrote your book. “Sure things” have Simply gone down the drain, left and right. Indeed, many “top predictions” of the experts have plummeted, even with low (or lowest mintages). One can write a book now simply on the demand side economics of these modern coins and the influences on that demand side alone.
Anyway, I’ve got plenty of 2019S Reverse Proof coins to hold on to or sell. And, far more 95W coins than I would like to own at this point. And, one thing is for sure- the next 5-10 years in Modern coin collecting will not go precisely as most predict. Just as the last 5-10 years haven’t!
Wondercoin
Thanks, I wrote this a while back but did not want to post it because I was already having such a hard time getting the half a dozen 2019S RP I placed orders for on ebay from falling through. Felt the market was such a raging mess I did not need to throw my 2 cents worth on it. I only ended up with 3 coins as all the ordered placed on November 15th got cancelled.
Ericj96
November 15th orders on eBay or from the Mint?
I agree with @wondercoin on modern issues and I would extend it to classic issues. I think we are entering a period that is going to be more demand-driven than supply-driven. Tastes and collecting styles are evolving.
You are correct Mitch. One of the things that has hurt the market is there is zero inflation and many dont feel the need for hard assets in general right now. I am not saying to people to go out and buy a bunch of them and make a fortune this year. These 2019s RP silver eagles were a great buy at $650-$1250 each and they may move into the 1995W price range over time. Maybe the 1995W will fall back to 2 grand and the 2019s will stall there.
This series may lay dormant for a decade until some inflation shows up. Most series mature within 40 years of series close.
I wrote this as a reply to some post about whats the big deal with this new fake rarity by collectors that dont understand fundamentals of the ASE.
Nov 15th on ebay. I did not get anything from the Mint on the 14th. Tried hard but noting but no luck.
I'm not sure that "hard assets" other than bullion would benefit much from inflation. The last thing I'd expect to move up is a $2000 ounce of silver. I don't think you'll see much of a flight to collectibles.
You obviously put a lot of thought into this, but you also made a lot of specific predictions, which can be dangerous.
Other wildcards - changing demographics (diminishing collector base), and collectors who are disgusted with the way Mr. Ryder engineered this debacle.
Speaking for myself with almost all of the SEs to date, I am probably going to stop collecting the series. I could accept one "white whale" needed to finish off the set someday, but not multiple intentionally- created low-mintage rarities.
It is funny that you mentioned Morgans. I can start a collection of slabbed mint state common dates for significantly less per coin than new proof SEs from the mint. I just might look into that,. And that way I won't have to worry about milk spots magically appearing on my coins.
“Maybe the 1995W will fall back to 2 grand and the 2019s will stall there.”
Would not surprise me at all on the 95W. But, that doesn’t mean the 2019-S is guaranteed to also achieve that level. In today’s “demand side economics” lowest mintage doesn’t translate to highest price. Many examples of this now across many modern coin series. Are some “sleeper” coins developing? Perhaps. Only time will tell.
Wondercoin
the demand side has changed dramatically.
with this Mint issue it is hard to tell what "demand" really is. it appears that demand is great because the issue sold out quickly, it appears that demand is great because there are buyers for these listed at a high premium.
I believe this may be a little deceptive in appearance.
to my way of thinking, a very large percentage of coins bought at release were bought for resale while at the same time the people buying them in the after-market are collectors who couldn't get one at when they went on sale. I suppose there are more than 30k collectors who want one, but probably not that many who are willing to "pay up" because they lost the lottery. that means this is just another in a long list of over-hyped Mint issues that sell out, shoot up in price and then settle back once everyone has one.
a buyer like wondercoin who gets as many as he can at release only distorts what the real demand may be. it will never happen, but if the release sale was limited to one coin and there was no resale allowed I would imagine that the total wouldn't have even sold out yet. that would be nice for collectors but flippers would be howling in the streets.
Demand is great for one simple reason: speculation that prices will continue up. When they start to fall, demand will reverse itself just as it does with any other low mintage US mint release.
Speculators/flippers are driving the price. . . for now.
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Yes ASEs are silver and have a technical denomination of $1, but let’s be honest, they’re not really silver dollars. ASEs are just bullion, they always will be.
I can't see that a Morgan is comparable to an ASE. One is made of a commercial coin alloy, tough enough to see it through its intended, but never actually realized, purpose. From its inception, the ASE was never meant to circulate and carries only a token face value. As almost pure silver, It's not tough enough to endure circulation. It's a bullion issue and was never intended to be "the" one dollar coin of our nation. That job has been (totally ineffectively) assigned to the SBA, SAC, and subsequent "gold" dollar issues.
Supply and demand are inseparable.
There is no sense in placing more importance on one than the other, because they truly are symbiotic.
When a collectible breaches that line where demand outweighs supply, it is going up in value.
When demand is intense, and the supply is recognizably limited, a scenario unfolds like we are seeing now.
One where $65 can turn into $1400 in 3 weeks, and the forum is dominated by talk of a modern US Mint product.
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
You cannot lump ASEs with commemoratives. The ASEs are part of a widely collected series. The commems are stand alones with very few collectors trying to have an extant set of commems.
the 1995-W alone proves the point. It is 24 years later and the price has not collapsed. You see similar value in the 100k mintage eagles which are generally $100 coins even 8 years after their release.
That is somewhat true, but not the point I was making. The demand side is changing as collecting preferences change. The supply side is NOT changing and static.
You can separate "supply" and "demand" in that sense. Value is a result of the balance between supply and demand. But supply and demand itself are completely separate entities in the sense that, for example, the supply of 2001 ASEs is static and unchanging no matter what the demand is.
The point of "supply driven" or "demand driven" pricing, the issue is over which side of the equation is static and which is changing. In the case of a restricted mintage coin in a collected series, you can refer to the price being supply driven by the (artificial?) supply rarity of that issue relative to the entire series. That is the OPs point with the 1995 and 2019 coins. On the other hand, wondercoin is arguing that changes in demand within the series will drive future prices because the demand is highly elastic.
All new issues are the same when their price is being driven by speculators. Demand for the current ASE is being driven by speculation. While this particular issue will hold higher value than other ASEs down the road, it is currently caught up in tulip mania. Prices being paid confirm this. Anyone that just has to have this coin for reasons other than speculation need only wait.
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I don't know what to call it. It's not speculation by the usual suspects. A LOT of these coins have been bought by dealers and retailers. 25 of the 27 I sold went to dealers. It's almost more about promotion than speculation. IDK what to call it.
The 95-W was dispersed differently and more expensive to get. Its low mintage was not known for awhile. The 19-S was cheap, low mintage and sold out fast. Two different scenarios, it will be interesting to see what the future holds. I like this coins future provided the US Mint doesn't start a low mintage trend. Picked one up on Ebay and the guy honored the deal and the price. My buy in was $560, I will likely hold on to it for enjoyments sake.
I don't want to understand the silver eagle and the 2019S reverse proof.
I used to collect them by the roll up until around 2009. The 1996 used to be a hot item. Still have the roll. Great series, I just enjoy the Silver Walkers, Morgans, Peace, Bust and standing liberty quarters more.
100% Positive BST transactions
Speculators are profit seekers. Why shouldn't this include dealers and retailers?
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I really can't see any true comparison between the Morgan and the ASE series. The ASE's were never intended to circulate like the Morgan's. In this respect I do not consider the ASE to be a true silver dollar, it is not the image I get when I see something mentioned about silver dollars and I doubt I am the only one here that feels that way.
With a total of five collector versions, and one bullion version ASE issued this year alone it has become tiresome to believe that I to have them all to complete my collection.
I think before I pay $1000 for a Silver Eagle that was just released I'm going to look at a 1909 S VDB cent to fill a hole in that series.
JMHO
Fighting the Fight for 11 Years with the big "C" - Never Ever Give Up!
Member PCGS Open Forum board 2002 - 2006 (closed end of 2006) Current board since 2006 Successful trades with many members, over the past two decades, never a bad deal.
Again, listen to the Market. For a lot of younger collectors, ASEs not Morgans are EXACTLY what they think of when you say "silver dollar". [Which has confused many an older dealer. ]
That's just sad...
Fighting the Fight for 11 Years with the big "C" - Never Ever Give Up!
Member PCGS Open Forum board 2002 - 2006 (closed end of 2006) Current board since 2006 Successful trades with many members, over the past two decades, never a bad deal.
Actually, it makes sense. The series is easily collectible, attractive, has all kinds of different finishes, and is over 30 years old.
a gimmick “coin” from the beginning.
I'm not really disagreeing, but it's different. To my mind, a "speculator" jumps on an item expecting it to go up. It's a little different if you are actually trying to make a market in something. If the TV guy buys a bunch of these and buys advertising and TV time and gets a custom holder for it, he's not "speculating" so much as "promoting" (or some better word).
the demand for this item as expressed by the current selling price is really artificial.
I say that because I don't figure "flippers" as someone who actually wants the item, they are only people who were able to acquire it with no interest in it long term, only profit at resale. that leaves little choice to those who want one, those who create the true demand. once that portion of collectors who are impatient and willing to spend the long dollar to have it now is satisfied, the true demand will appear and prices will begin to drop, perhaps sharply. isn't that the typical end game, prey on that impatience early??
we will never know what the demand really is for an item like this until the Mint has a "strike on demand" program.
I mostly agree [see my prior comments]. We do have some idea about the demand for ASEs with special finish because we have previous issues. The ones that dropped in value after release clearly had too much supply relative to demand. If you look at the ones that have appreciated in price, they typically had mintages of about 100k and they have stayed $100 to $150 coins for going on 10 years. It is reasonable to estimate that there are around 100k silver eagle collectors. If you throw in the 1995-W coin with its 30,125 mintage (and a float lower than that), the fact that it is still a $3,000 coin 24 years later supports the estimate of 100k collectors.
I expect the price to pull back at some point. But I would not bet on any kind of absolute collapse. It is hard to imagine that this isn't a $1000 coin (or more) moving forward.
I like the ASE's and collected them at issue up until they skipped a year....still got the odd ball one's that came out... and have the slabbed '95W... Missed this one....tried though....
I believe it will be at least two years until pricing settles down on the 2019S ERP....and then, it will still not be cheap. Cheers, RickO
It is a fun series to collect. It's a short series. There are multiple finishes and mintmarks. It had only one challenging coin until a couple weeks ago, now it has 2, but most examples are plentiful and affordable. That's why so many collectors, new and old, have collected the series.
I believe you are correct.
It also appears a group of well financed collectors/dealers/speculators are trying to corner the market (controlling interest) and exercise significant control of the supply/price. Whether or not that pans out for them remains to be seen.
For prices to stay anywhere near current levels a well controlled supply to the market will be required. OPEC did this very well prior to U.S. oil production exploding. If ten or twelve "entities" holds of 50%+ of the supply then prices could stay high for many months.
the demand is still artificial, created that way and now supported by the flippers. I agree that there are a lot of collectors but it's just one of many Mint issues which collectors eventually tire of and buy out of habit, that need to be "complete" in their collection. not everyone, but a lot of collectors fit that definition. that's a reason why the reverse change is a smart idea. it will reinvigorate demand in collectors who have lost interest.
I only say this because I have seen many buyers of ASE's who aren't really interested in the "different finishes, MM's, etc" but only feel obliged to buy the new coins when they come out.
I have always liked the design. there came a time when I considered buying some ASE's to "put back" for the long term, drawn to the obverse design which is just beyond beautiful. I reasoned that all I would be doing is buying some bullion that would be hidden away and never viewed. I decided to start collecting Walkers.
According to the United States Mint there were 2+ Million customers in early 1990’s
According to the United States Mint there were 1.2 Million customers in 2008
According to Ryder there are “under” 500.000 customers
According to the latest statement from the United States Mint there were 260,000 online at the time of Launch for the 2019-S Enhanced Reverse Proof American Silver Eagle.
That’s the problem I see comparing the 1995-W to the 2019-S.
30,000 is an absolute low mintage number, however, it also should be taken in a relative context…
eBay sales seem to still be creeping up in the $1600 range. I wonder if the sealed boxes will continue to rise if there's a chance to score a signed COA.
This is true but doesn't change the analysis. Both the 1995-W and 2019-S are being valued relative to the 2019 collector numbers not the 1995 numbers.
Those general numbers are one of a number of reasons that we should be concerned about the future of the hobby. People want to excuse it as "just Mint trash", but it was always just "Mint trash". Look at ANA membership as another metric. Look at the price of "nice widgets" (65 Morgans, 63 Libs and Saints, etc.) There is little doubt that there is a shrinking collector base overall.
The announced mintage limit was 45,000, which was very low compared to anything that had come before. As I recall, there were weekly updates regarding the number of gold sets (with the 1995-W silver eagle) sold, and the approximate final mintage was known a few weeks after the sets went off sale. Even after the final mintage was known, the coin was available for under $300 for some time.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
There are more collectors of regular proofs (like the 1995-W) than there are collectors of the complete Silver Eagle series (which includes the 2019-W). Therefore I think collector demand for the 1995-W will likely always be higher than collector demand for the 2019-W.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Maybe, maybe not. I was a mint customer in the early 90's but I'm not anymore. That doesn't mean I stopped collecting, however.
Statistics. Unless you think there are more of "you" than there were in the 90s, the total numbers are the total numbers. "You" were just some older dude in 1990 who gave up on the Mint.
Like I said, it is only one of many numbers, all of which tell a similar story.
Sure. And based on reading some of the posts here, I'm not the only one. There's more to collecting than the U.S. Mint.
2019-S and 2019-W
This is an oddity in that the actual demand greatly supersedes the supply, AND artificial demand is being created by the marketers. The 2018 palladium, gold Kennedy half, HOF coins... were all based on limited demand, and a whole lot of artificial demand created by the marketers. This was really the perfect storm.
I too will be interested to see where this issue settles out, and at what price for the various configurations of it.
I am extremely dubious as the actual number of collectors of the series but acknowledge the blossom of interest in flippers and others out to make money; don't particularly care for it, but then that is a factor in collecting scarcer coins of the modern series.
I also do not think this is the equivalent of a modern Morgan dollar as the SAE coins were a bulk way to eliminate US government silver holdings by creating a bulk bullion piece that was never intended to trade at face value in commercial transactions. To this was added the "window decoration" of special issues and finishes, and proofs, etc. This was not at all the case with the Morgans, which although utilized as an alleyway to dump government holdings of silver, WERE intended to circulate and in fact did.
This is not a simple technicality because many collectors traditionally and even nowadays shy away from coins that were not used in circulation.
Well, just Love coins, period.
True. But there were also lots of "former Mint collectors" in the 1990s and 1980s etc. There may be more now than then, on a percentage basis. There may not be. But I don't think that the roughly 70% drop in Mint customers and the roughly 70% drop in ANA members is a coincidence. And I don't think the moribund pricing of widgets is a coincidence either.
This is beyond silly. You are comparing Bullion to a series. Maybe collectors that collect these ASE's, which are nothing but Silver bullion, will care about a design change. But no one else will.
Hey DImeman do you even know who you are addressing in this dismissive manner? Eric is THE MAN ...perhaps you better recognize?
One thing that's different today from 30-40 years ago is the number of products marketed by the mint. Used to be, there were proof sets and mint sets, at most. And that's it. Just about anybody could afford to collect those. Now, there's a seemingly neverending array of items for sale- individual coins and sets in all sorts of combinations and finishes and compositions. Completeness is important to lots of collectors, and the mint has made it difficult to maintain a complete set of just about anything anymore. I tried to keep up for a while but once the mint started selling gold and platinum coins, I had to cut back on what I bought since I couldn't afford it all. Eventually, I gave up entirely. And it's not like I didn't see it coming, as I also collect Canadian coins and the RCM is about 10 years or so ahead of the US Mint in expanding their product line. When it gets to the point that you have to start buying sets of coins just to get the individual ones you're still interested in because they're only available in sets, it sucks a whole lot of fun out of the hobby and you start to look elsewhere. I know it happened to me, and I have talked to others who feel the same way. Maybe the mint has fewer customers today because of this? Or maybe it's something else entirely. Who knows?