Cracking holders and re-submitting for grading
shaf2b
Posts: 31 ✭✭
Am a high end Morgan collector. How reliable are the PCGS pop numbers? Hear a lot of dealers talking at shows about cracking MS65/66 coins out of their holders and re-submitting hoping for an upgrade. How prevalent is this practice, and how does PCGS then update pop numbers? Any thoughts much appreciated. Thank you
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The crack and submit game only hurts the hobby.
I have never played the crack-out game. But, my understanding is that people do it in order to make a quick buck. You can also ruin your high grade Morgan, if you don't know how to crack out properly, and the plastic scratches your coin!
As far as updating the pop numbers, unless the person cracking out actually reports it to PCGS (and/or NGC, ANACS, etc.), it won't get updated. So, the pop numbers for all TPGs, IMO, are likely quite unreliable.
Rocking my "shiny-object-syndrome"!!!
Unless the inserts eventually get returned, the pop reports are skewed. If there are less than 20 coins of a certain kind in all grades then the pop reports are pretty close and some collectors probably know about every one of them.
They don't and the pop report is as much as 50% lower before the big jump in price.
Someday they will use AI to adjust the numbers and everyone will be shocked.
My Saint Set
Thanks for the feedback.....did suspect the pop numbers to be unreliable
What company graded the coin?
While I don't crack out, I regularly use the "Reconsideration" process, and have had good success. Admittedly, not as good as the crack out people, but using Reconsideration means not having a coin come back in a lower grade. Additionally, since my coins have CAC's, since the cert number stays the same using Reconsideration, if my coin gets a "+", then for only $3, the CAC sticker will automatically be reapplied (not automatic for those increasing in grade to the next whole number - and the $14.50 fee would then apply as well). Probably about 2/3 or more of the coins in my collection eligible for a "+" have a "+", and my guess is that almost half of those with a "+" got it via Reconsideration (modern coins graded 69 or 70 are ineligible for a "+")..
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
The crack out game is rampant...just read this forum for a while.... the pop numbers, particularly for popular series, are likely very inaccurate. Cheers, RickO
I've never cracked out, but have used the reconsideration process with some success !!!
I've gotten lucky a few times...
It's rampant, the population reports are hopelessly skewed, and there is no end in sight. Use population numbers with many grains of salt.
If grading was consistent and "standards" fixed, it would not be as much of an issue.
The crack out game has been going on since the early days of slabbing. It is about money, pure and simple.
Almost all (many) of the major dealers do it. Many collectors, myself included, have done it. Sometimes it isn't always for an increase in the label grade either. Some are now seeking to go the other way to get coins to downgrade to a plus grade for the level below that will sticker and can be resold at inflated prices. It cuts both ways.
I tried it once; never again. CC Trade Dollars: 1875 ICG AU 53 came back PCGS Cleaned - ICG 1874 XF 40 came back cleaned.
This is a thing? Have any examples?
Obviously, you are very experienced at it SO PLEASE TELL US HOW IT HURTS THE HOBBY. Thanks in advance.
Yes, but not because I wanted to sell for a higher price.
I was not crazy about the MS61 grade an 1839 bust half received. Further, it didn't fit my Everyman collection (where 58+ is the highest allowed). I got tired of trying to find a 58/58+ I liked so I cracked it and submitted it raw. It came back 58. The old 61 cert is taped to the back of the slab, just for grins.
Lance.
If you haven't figured out by now you never will.
I feel the pressure of your 11,000 posts dwarfing my 25. I'm gonna craw into my safe space with a flashlight and snuggle with my Bernie 2020 teddy bear.
So how long after the first coin was graded and slabbed was the first coin cracked out and resubmitted?
The coin is still the same unless it was doctored in the process.
That^ and it improves the chances of a cleaned coin coming back straight graded.
I bought my first PCGS coins when they first started grading, an 1881-S PCGS MS64 Morgan and an 1881-CC PCGS MS63 Morgan. They were in high demand and difficult to find. I thought the 1881-CC was prooflike, so I cracked it out and resubmitted it. It came back MS64 and I quickly sold it for a 500.00 profit.
@gotboostedvr6 said: "The crack and submit game only hurts the hobby."
So I asked: "Obviously, you are very experienced at it SO PLEASE TELL US HOW IT HURTS THE HOBBY."
@gotboostedvr6 replied: "If you haven't figured out by now you never will."
"I feel the pressure of your 11,000 posts dwarfing my 25. I'm gonna craw into my safe space with a flashlight and snuggle with my Bernie 2020 teddy bear."
LOL, this is the slickest avoidance of an answer I've ever read! Your "Bernie Bear" reveals everything I need to know.
@BAJJERFAN said "The coin is still the same unless it was doctored in the process."
.
SO WHAT!
@gotboostedvr6 said: "That^ and it improves the chances of a cleaned coin coming back straight graded."
Or a straight graded coin coming back "details"? OMG!
@Insider2
We will eventually be friends. Don't take it personally. I mean well and I'm sure you do too.
I used to crack coins out of Whitman folders in hopes of putting them in Danscos.
As long as the coin doesn't change then cracking it out doesn't hurt the hobby.
Since when does plastic scratch a metal coin?
not saying it is not possible, but common sense says NOT possible.
perhaps scratches a proof coin???
Crack-outs are just a small part of our hobby. I gave some thought to the idea that they hurt the hobby. And I do not think they do. But they do add a slightly convoluted multi-layered financial element to it. As one who has not yet really participated I can only speak from observations. Certainly the process creates opportunity for both collector and dealer. I think you can just not play that game also if it never finds the opportunity to suit your needs.
Edited to add: I think the ability to crack out the coin and challenge the grade is a good thing. I never feel entirely comfortable when I start considering the potential ramifications of a computerized grading system (which seems to be something a lot of collectors are asking for).
Yes, it is a thing. Look at the inventory of many of the PCGS/CAC dealers and randomly pick more expensive/esoteric coins that are easier to identify. Look in the Heritage and Stacks-Bowers listings. Compare the coins.
PM forthcoming with specific example.
I generally agree. The only case of where you risk a plastic shard damaging a coin would be when the coin is a proof especially .999 gold which is very soft.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
^This. However, crack-out, reconsideration, new designations ("PL"), the registry, etc., etc., are all wonderful for our host!!! They are masters of their domain.
Plastic can scratch a coin. There are many different conditions that affect the final result including the type of plastic!
Proofs are very delicate. On occasion even fibers from a photo brush can leave a hairline. MS coins are not so delicate. You'll need to apply pressure with a sharp hard plastic pointed shard.
Yes, the reports are skewed in the "absolute" sense. But it's fairly consistent across the board. So they are skewed higher by a similar amount for the bulk of the "rare" coin market. I tracked the Type Coin coin pops extensively from 1988-2008 and watched how different areas advanced in pops over 3-5 yr periods. Also kept an eye on a number of other areas. Since in most cases, we are looking at the pop report to see how 1 coin stacks up against the others in various grades, those numbers tend to rise at similar rates.....the concept of relative rarity.
The pop reports have considerable value when comparing "relative rarity." An example might be comparing a MS64 1848 quarter against a MS65 1852......or a MS63 1919-D walker against other better date walkers in MS63-65 grades. Or comparing ALL 1848 seated quarters graded vs. any other date in the series. While this will be skewed towards better dates, it's not a bad comparison towards dates that aren't the keys to the series (like an 01-s Barber quarter or 70-cc seated quarter). Expensive Key dates are submitted FAR more often than semi-keys, or scarce dates....if only to avoid fakes. But you can compare KEY dates in the same series, or other series against each other. Remove the 01-s, 96-s, and 13-s Barber Quarters from the study, and you can probably effectively compare all the remaining S and O mints for relative rarity in some or all grades. It won't be 100% accurate. But it might be 65-80% accurate.
Of course there might be exceptions where one coin was submitted 5X or more on a relative low pop coin. I recall when a nice MS63 1839 no drapery half dollar was submitted 6-8x and it doubled the actual pops. Pops in MS63 was up around 8-10 when it should have been 4-5. No way to account for that unless you are the one involved or are watching the pops like a hawk. MS Morgan dollars for the most part are nearly the ideal candidate for reviewing relative rarity across the MS spectrum. If you collect the better dates you will get useful comparison data.
For more generic coins, type coins, and the like, the pops reports will give you a good idea how very different areas of the market stack up against each other. How about all MS trade dollars vs. all MS bust quarters? Or how about all MS 67 walkers against all MS68 silver Washington quarters. You can do a LOT with the pop reports today. For those that can't see any value in the pop reports, you're stuck "inside" the box.
The pop reports are only a glimpse at what's been graded - the ungraded "raw" coins are the big unknown. What percentage of ALL seated halves in existence have been graded? 10%? 20%? 30%? 40%? 50%? It certainly varies by grade. Maybe 50-80% of all MS seated halves coins have been graded at least once. Knowing the pops of some semi-key dates, and ratio that up to all dates, you might actually come up with a fairly reasonable estimate of all specimens in existence for a particular series. You can't even begin to do that w/o a pop report. CAC doesn't get nearly the re-submissions that the TPG's do. So comparing their numbers across the board on the higher end of the coin market has value too.
Thank you all for your highly informative comments. Perhaps with PCGS Gold Shield and hopefully, them procuring sophisticated digital tools, they will be able to recognize coins like fingerprints. But then exists a conflict of interest in losing out on repeated grading fees...
I disagree.
If something is obviously under graded, why is one requited to leave in the holder and forgo an opportunity to sell the piece in the proper grade? When I was a dealer, I was not crack-out crazy, but if I saw something that clearly under graded, I took the shot and I got it right about 95% of time. I know that number sounds high, but I was very selective. I didn’t take what some people call “shots.”
The biggest boost I ever got was from an AU-58 $5 Indian in rattle holder to MS-63. I had several go from MS-64 to 65. Coin dealing is not an easy way to make a living, and you need to use all of the resources you have.