An appraisal contest
tradedollarnut
Posts: 20,204 ✭✭✭✭✭
You’ve been commissioned to appraise this coin. Your client will NOT accept a WAG - you must have data to support your value conclusion . Show your method and state the current value. Best appraisal wins a lil sumptin sumptin from my old box of junk stuff.
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I will post my appraisal tonight 9pm and show my method. Contest runs until then
Think I'd turn down the commission. I also don't do major surgery, or windows.
Good question with no correct answer, but I’ll play. The Dexter piece sold for $3.29 million in 2017 when the pros were expecting more like 4. Then resold for an undisclosed price above that. Then, a year later, a lower quality piece brought 2.64, which was in line with expectations, and which IMHO validated earlier expectations on the Dexter coin. The market for coins at this level hasn’t changed much since then, so I’m at $4 million today.
Edited to add this, and to change my number. With the Eliasberg 1913 Nickel bringing “only” $4.56 million, I have to drop my number on the Dexter coin to $3.6. The nickel is just too obviously a much more valuable coin, and the comp is too relevant to ignore.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Mr Eureka has some background info that I didnt have, but I took the simple method, and looked it up in Coinfacts - came up with the same number: $4M
https://www.pcgs.com/coinfacts/coin/1804-1-original-class-bb-304/6907
$4.25 million.
I support my theory by extrapolating growth on the 2 higher grade coins AND the immediately lower grade coin. Averaging the growth between the coins (which were all pretty much the same) can extrapolate that the last public sale price of this coin was a bit on the low side**.
**I would not be a good statistician if I did not also highlight that extrapolation outside of a dataset introduces error.
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More Than It's Chopped Up To Be
Can't wait to see the explanations......only a WAG (not allowed) here.
bob
The available market data would suggest a valuation of about $4,000,000. However, market data does not take into effect the current "players" in this rather shallow pool. Has the current trade war with China affected the income of some of the major participants? Has the recent rather flat performance of the stock market had any effect (it could be positive if buyers feel the stock market is overpriced and are looking for someplace to park their money, or it could be negative if the "players" income has declined due to bad calls in the stock market.)
The people in the know will be the top end US dealers who know who the buyers are and what they are interested, or not interested in at the moment. Someone such as myself does not have any feel for this very high end portion of the market.
Since 1804 Dollars (including the same coin) seem to appear at regular intervals I would advise my client to sit on the sidelines this time around. If his absence from the market causes a decline in the market to well under $4,000,000 he should be able to pick up the next offering for under that figure if he still has an interest in an 1804 Dollar.
I'll play. I'm not gonna spend too much time on this. So here is my relatively simple estimate based on sale prices from the Mickley-Hawn-Queller coin which I think is a fair comparison. This MHQ PCGS 62 sold for 3,877,500 in August 2013 and 2,640,000 in June 2018. The Dexter coin sold for 3,290,000 in March 2017. Obviously these 3 data points already show a downward trend. By calculation, you see the MHQ coin had a return on investment of about -7% per year, 3877500(1+x)^5=2640000 where x is solved to be -7%. So from March 2017 to June 2018, you could expect the Dexter coin to be worth 3059700 if it was to move in price in the same way - it's impossible to come up with a price estimate without some sort of assumption, so here is mine. With this, I would guess that today the Dexter coin is worth 3059700 plus or minus 7% to account for uncertainty in the time from June 2018 to now where I don't have data.
This coin has an added piece of uncertainty in pricing it: it sold for an undisclosed amount above the March 2017 sale. No one knows that amount is except for a few (lets call them) "insiders", so guessing on that amount is 100% speculation unless you're an insider, I could pull a number out of thin air too and it would be just as accurate unless I was an insider. For that reason, I completely ignore this data point.
Edit: Bolding my actual price estimate.
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Edited to add this, and to change my number. With the Eliasberg 1913 Nickel bringing “only” $4.56 million, I have to drop my number on the Dexter coin to $3.6. The nickel is just too obviously a much more valuable coin, and the comp is too relevant to ignore.
Now you’re getting warmer...even though your conclusion is wrong
I'd consider also the result from the 1885 TD (it was $3.9m I think) in this calculation.
Need to stop calling this the Dexter specimen since Dunham counter stamped the cloud with a D.
Maybe finally putting the Dexter story to bed will add $1,000,000.00 to the value?
$3.2 million
The coin is changing hands too often, too recently for my liking. The roughly $3.3m auction price a couple years ago was paid by a dealer/flipper, who then seemingly flipped it for an undisclosed amount (so I can't use that price to support my guess, whether it was higher or lower than the auction price). And now seemingly that buyer is selling it already. Not the type of coin that should be on the market once a year on average. I think that hurts the price/value and keeps me from saying the coin's value should have gone up since the last true auction. So my guess would be in line with the last auction result, somewhere between the underbidder's bid and the winner's bid.
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 448
I would start by having the discussion upfront with the client to help set realistic expectations as well as the purpose and need for the appraisal. Is the appraisal to establish a market value at this point in time or is it for insurance purposes in an effort to establish a value for the purpose of finding an underwriting company willing to price and accept the risk. There are several issues to consider... A deductible, possibly co-insurance which means the client might find it best to handle part of the risk and possibly negotiating some of the policy conditions and exclusions.
I would explain that the appraisal is merely an appraisal that represents the thoughts of the appraiser at that point in time. Because this coin is such a rarity, I would track the sales and auction records of the other known examples. And as part of this, document condition rarity with an analysis starting with the grading history behind each coin, and included within that analysis would be a timeline following the submission history if that could be reasonably gleened from the slab. Further, I would seek out surviving auction records and contact respected numismatist that may have had the benefit of an in hand review of all of the known examples to seek their recollection of each coin. My appraisal would attempt to rank the surviving population and attach a premium for originality, quality and how they measure up.
I would offer an appraisal that would consist of two numbers... A market value which I would estimate at 4,150,000 and a stated value fo insurance purposes of 4,375,000.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
It's only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. With the US markets potentially rolling over with a quick sharp cycle correction, China economy softening I could see 3.75 Million$ but with one if not two fed cuts being factored in we may enter a period of cheap/easy money again which could bubble asset classes pushing this coin up to 4.15 Million$.
Comparing it with other high value assets is tricky because the 1804 holds a certain mysticism. It has an endearing spot in the heart of many thus driving price a bit.
Final answer 4.1725$ Million
J
I would only compare prices of 1804 Dollars and maybe Early dollars in general to find the right price here.
The market is just too different for different kind of coins, e.g. Stellas and Proof gold seems very strong, while 1792 patterns right now are weak.
So if we look at the 1804 Dollars, we have the PCGS PR 62 selling at 2.64 Million and before at 3.8 Million. In general the Dollars in Pogue were selling a bit cheap, I bought the 1795 PCGS 66 at 800k that sold in 2005 at 1.25 Million, which is about the same discount like the 1804 PR 62 in 2013 -> 2018 (about 31 - 33 pc discount).
The general feeling before Pogue was that the 1804 PR 65 Dollar is a 5 Million USD coin, I asked 3 dealers and they all told me this number before the sale. The price realized then discounted this number with this 33%. Many Dollars at Pogue actually brought 33% less than I thought they would bring.
Before Pogue, if someone had offered the coin at 5 Mio USD, nobody would have complained and the coin might have been sold at this price. That might be the case for quite a few coins that sold cheap at Pogue.
I think the current value is around 4 Mio USD, this also fits in the ratio to the PR 62 at 2.6 Million.
In 3-4 years the coin might well be worth 5 Million again, in case there is retail demand and not another Pogue like sale coming up in between. But it also could be worth less then, as a problem with this coin might be that its not a coin that is needed for the registry set collections. It might well be that the registry set collecting has harmed the price of this coin longterm, (and the 1913 Nickel and Brasher Dabloon as well).
Maybe the Brasher Dabloon is a good coin to compare for price, its a standalone trophy coin as well.
An AU 55 coin sold in 2005 for around 2,4 Million while a MS 63 coin sol for 4.5 Million way before Pogue in 2014.
This would also lead to a number of around 4 Million, if the metric is 55 (2.4 Million) -> 63 (4.5 Million) and 62 (2.6 Million) -> 65 (4 Million).
So my valuation is exactly 4.0 Million USD.
Outside my area of expertise but I do some forecasting so I'm interested to think it through.
1) Historical prices. Past auctions for this coin and other 1804 dollars are well known. Last auction price $3.3M in 2017.
2) Current market "temperature" and trend for very expensive rare coins. This is unknown to me but assume industry pros have some sense of the market. This may also include an element of opportunity cost. What else can be purchased for the same type of money?
3) Other professional opinions. Again industry insiders probably have better data through their networks but one opinion available to me is PCGS coinfacts which lists $4M.
4) Buyers. Who are the potential buyers and what is their level of interest and capacity to pay? Are there only 1 or 2 potential landing spots for this coin, or several? Again, I have no idea.
There are several factors that may affect buyers in this market. - did they just blow their budget on other high end coins? Are there geopolitical or macroeconomic factors that may affect key players access to funds?
5) Related to buyer analysis might be venue. Where the coin is located / who the seller is may affect the pool of buyers that may bite. What resources or guarantees are available to buyers. What is the reputation of the seller.
6) What is the "replacement cost?" I.e., what could one buy that would be a suitable replacement to this coin, and how much would those be? When might another one be available?
7) How badly does the seller need to sell it? Why are they selling?
Will they sell at any price or only if a certain increase % over the 2017 price is met?
8) Other risk - the history of this coin is well documented, but is there any possible question of authenticity? Is it currently secure or is there any risk of damage or theft? Is there a cache of 1804 dollars out there waiting to be discovered that could tank the value of this one?
So to wrap it up, there are a lot of questions that I dont have answers to. But those are some of the things I would start looking into.
Ultimately its worth whatever someone is willing to pay. My best estimate with all of my many unanswered questions is $3.5M.
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Pogue did indeed turn down $5M private offer for the coin. The only reason it sold so cheap at the sale was nobody really thought it was actually for sale after the other 1804 wasn’t sold. Needless to say, there was a mini feeding frenzy to quickly buy the coin after the sale. I turned down an immediate six figure profit
Sometimes coins fall through the cracks. Basing a current appraisal on one past data point is unwise. Let’s take the 1885 trade dollar mentioned previously- coin sold for just over $900k at the Eliasberg sale. Here’s a little blog discussing a presale estimate of $1M. The coin eventually sold for $1.4M and resold for $3.3M
https://www.reedededge.com/louis-eliasberg-sr-sale-personal-perspective/
The real secret: at the time the finest 1804 was auctioned and all that monkey biz happened with the bidding, every one was thought this coin also was not for sale. Thus only one brave soul-Kevin Lipton bid on it. It ended up being the rip of the entire Pouge Collection.
At that time this coin was easily valued at $4-$5 million. Today, I figure at $4.5 million since the marginal one sold for $3 million or so to Delloy. Plus, I believe there are a few more buyers today then when the auction happened.
No award me my pool house! .
I swear I did not read TDN's post above
What is the likelihood that one player could eventually obtain all of them?
It could happen if one of the uber-billionaires started throwing money around. Coins like this would be pocket change to them.
I think Hansen needs it: $4.86 million
What’s funny is IF the Pogues has let the other one sell for $10M then we’d probably be talking a number starting with 6
I'm just curious what TDN's 'junk box' has in it. Probably puts coins in my best sets to shame.
I'll elaborate further...the greatest collection is measured by its four or five greatest coins...the 1804 is perhaps the most famous of all U.S. coins "The King of American Coins"...Hansen picked up the M-H-Q for a "bargain" price...and I'm sure by now he realizes he got what he paid for...how do you surpass Eliasberg? Have two or more 1804 dollars...Eliasberg had a PR64...Hansen can one up with a PR65...
Look at top auctions sales from the biggest auctions houses that would sell material like that. Decide does the eye appeal warrant a better value than/stronger price than what has previously sold. Look at when items have been sold, as items like that don't likely change hands too often. Come in a tad conservative and don't forget to subtract the auction house fees.
$3,040,000
I am amazed that no one is really talking about the coin itself. If I was paying 3-5 Million for a coin I would want an appraisal that analyzed every millimeter of that coins surface in comparison to the other coins. I would want to know every strength and weakness about the coin itself and any other coin that is considered a comparable. I actually would request to have the appraiser magnify the pictures of the coin and then teach me why the coin is an A+ coin. If I am paying someone to assess something this valuable, I want to learn something along the way.
At that point, I would want to talk about previous sales and comparable prices.
Thanks! I already knew anything below 5 million was going to be “wrong”, so “getting warmer” seems like a win!
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I’m not judging values - I’m judging methods. It’s your statement of opinion of what’s ‘obviously more valuable’ that’s wrong - at least according to the prices realized history of the two coins
You know what, it is all a matter of who the players are. And right now, I only 2 people-and one would be cheap.
I win the pool house!!! End this ridiculous thread
It’s very much meant as an educational thread on comparative appraisal methods. You don’t always have a recent price history of what you’re appraising...but rather something comparable. How then do you iterate?
For decades the classic rarities have had a pecking order and have moved in concert with each other. One can spot outlier sales rather easily with this knowledge...one can also determine current values
Interesting thread. Such talk is out of my wheelhouse, but it's fun to watch.
In reality, there's only one actual way to find out.
As an aside, I've found that it's much more enjoyable to collect coins that are well inside your budget. That way you don't live and die by a few percent here or there. In the case of a coin like this, the players probably shouldn't be bothered much by a few hundred thousand this way or that way. Sort of like the angst I might (not) feel when discussing the price of a common-date MS66 Morgan.
While I feel the amount of people interested in purchasing the rarity to begin with is limited, I would put a price tag of $6 Million on the coin. Gee, what a number! Not only is quality expensive, but I do not foresee another Class One 1804 $1 coming to auction any time soon in this downward swirling market which we are currently in. With the PR68 example bringing just over $9 Million, and the PR67 coin selling (allegedly) for $8.5 Million, I see no reason to stoop down to anywhere near the low price to which your coin brought in auction in 2017. You got a bargain.
Maybe Laura just said this but IMHO the question is best answered by considering how many people are seriously looking to own an 1804 right now (or two if you count the present owners of the other 1804 coins). There are at least three or four public collectors with the means (and I am not sure how many private collectors) but not sure how many of them want to own an 1804 or own two of them at the cost of owning other coins or holdings. There are also a few dealers that might pool together if the price made sense (what happened when JA and David Lawrence RC recently bought the 1854-S).
Then there are wildcards -- unknown buyers but I suspect there are fewer of these in the end than our hobby would like.
"Look up, old boy, and see what you get." -William Bonney.
I was thinking along the same lines as @HCHCoin and would guide my client by Analytically & Qualitatively Describing Specific Features such as Strike, Preservation State, Luster and Eye Appeal using High Resolution Images, comparing the PCGS PR-65 Ex. Pogue-Dexter-Dunham-Holecek Specimen subject coin to the Finest Known (Highest Graded) example, a PCGS PR-68 - Sultan of Muscat Presentation Specimen (with demonstrably weaker strike).
I downloaded the following👇High Resolution Images from PCGS CoinFacts to assist in making a visual comparison.
Positive Features of Subject Coin:
Note how much Better Struck the Obverse Stars are on the PR-65 subject coin, with 8 out of 13 exhibiting Full Radial Lines as compared to only 2 or 3 in the Higher Graded comparison coin, and none of the stars on viewers right in front of Liberty’s face.
Similarly also note the Stronger Strike on the Reverse of the subject PR-65 coin, with images depicting that this coin exhibits stronger strike on the Eagle’s Left (viewer’s right) Talon and Olive Branch.
Negative Features of Subject Coin:
Apparent light contact Obverse Hairline Abrasions (or perhaps Fingerprint Smudge Remnant) on Liberty’s Cheek, Neck and in Field in front of her face.
Apparent Light Fingerprint on Reverse cloud below the letter “O” in “OF”. Possible Fingerprint Smudge Remnant on Reverse below Eagle’s Left (viewer’s right) talon & after the last “A” in “AMERICA”
Comparable Coin Comparison and Valuation Estimate:
This cursory (Image Only) visual comparison Arguably Demonstrates that the Subject PR-65 Coin Holds up Well in a Comparison to a coin Graded 3 Points Higher, and should attain a nearly comparable market value to that coin, which last sold for $4.14 Million (20 Years Ago) on August 30, 1999 in a Bowers & Merena Auction.
Today’s value (20 years later) for the SP-68 would certainly be Significantly Higher than $4.14 Million (Perhaps Double at $8 Million), arguably justifying perhaps somewhere between a $4-6 Million valuation.
Web Link: 👉 https://www.pcgs.com/auctionprices/item/1804-1-original-class-bb-304/6907/872961055820834596
1804 Dollar PCGS PR-68 - Sultan of Muscat Presentation Specimen
1804 Dollar PCGS PR-65 - Ex. Pogue-Dexter-Dunham-Holecek Specimen
1804 Dollar PCGS PR-68 - Sultan of Muscat Presentation Specimen
1804 Dollar PCGS PR-65 - Ex. Pogue-Dexter-Dunham-Holecek Specimen
Stuart
Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal
"Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"
Given the price, I think it's more that Kevin was shrewd, or even that he just took a chance, than he was brave. There's a reason he's in the Dealer Hall of Fame.
I'd wager $5 million. The Childs/Pogue coin sold for close to that in 1999 and easily worth double that now. Some suggest it would have sold for $10 million at the Pogue sale. With the Hansen coin around $3 million, this coin should be worth more than its last auction appearance and closer to the Pogue number. 1804 silver dollars usually do better than 1913 Liberty Head nickels, and with the Eliasberg gem PF 1913 V nickel at $4.56 million, this coin should get the bump to the nearest half million.
The market also seems to be improving, and I see the Hansen and Dexter sales as outliers. With the Hansen coin (62)* previously selling in a better market for $3.7 million (2008) and $3.8 million (2013), $5 million seems about right today for the 65. Of course, it is all speculation. Can't wait to see what the Dexter coin fetches if you ever sell it again...
Edited: Freudian slip... I originally called Hansen's 62 a 58 in error.
Sorry guys, BUT what are you all basing these big zeros on??
admitted, I have NO or nearly no idea about US coins....but these $$$ are a lot of $$$ for just one coin.
If either one of you would have or does have the $$ to buy any of these without blinking an eye, would you buy it???
OR did one of you buy?
Inquiring minds wish to know
I'm not an expert appraiser and don't claim to be one. I don't see the relevance of either question as appraisers are often called upon to value material that they have no interest in. I would go as far as to say that the best appraisers truly are disinterested. To answer your questions no. I could be as rich as Bezos, and I wouldn't spend seven figures on any luxury item.
I would certainly pay somewhere well into seven figures to buy the coin. At some price, without blinking an eye. Not to collect it, but for resale. And there are certainly some seven figure coins that I would happily add to my collection if I could easily swing it. Not 1804 Dollars and 1913 Nickels, which don't do much for me, but I'd love to own a Brasher Doubloon, an Ultra High Relief, a set of 1792 patterns, the 1783 Nova Constellatio pattern set, the finest Templeton Reid $10, and more than a few others! Current market levels would not scare me off.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
For the reasons already mentioned above, the auction sale was an outlier. I immediately repurchased the coin privately for closer to $4M and turned down an immediate 6 figure profit. Andy is absolutely correct that the consensus basal value on the coin at the time was $4M...as evidenced by the after auction activity. Where Andy is not correct is that the 1913 is clearly the more valuable coin and that the market has not moved forward for this portion of the market since the sale. Since the 1804 dollar was sold, three notable ultra rarities have come to auction: the Eliasberg 1913 nickel, and 1884/85 trade dollars. Each of these set new auction records for the date and since they all occurred in the past 12 months, I will use them to extrapolate the value of the 1804.
First off, it’s important to think back to the Eliasberg sale (and beyond) where the 1804$1 in the exact same grade (but inferior quality according to Blay) sold for significantly more than the 1913, 1884 and 1885. I will utilize this sale and subsequent nearby sales to determine the value.
Eliasberg 1913 nickel 1996 $1.485M, 1804 dollar 1997 $1.815M. Ratio 1.222
Same 1913 nickel 2018 $4.56M
1.222 ratio yields $5.57M
Eliasberg 1884 trade dollar 1997 $396k. 1804 dollar $1.815M. Ratio 4.58
Same trade dollar 2019 $1.14M
4.58 ratio yields $5.22M
Summary: Two different historical ratios to coins that sold in auction last year yield a value range of $5.2-$5.6M
Now I have a little inside information knowing that the original 1885 sale was an outlier as well and that it sold privately after the sale. I compare the auction sale of this very 1804$1 to the private sale of the 1885:
Dexter 1804 dollar 2000 $1.84M
Eliasberg 1885 trade dollar 1999 $1.35M (private sale to me). Ratio 1.363
Same 1885 trade dollar 2019 $3.96M
1.363 ratio yields $5.397M
This happens to be smack dab in the middle of the previous range and thus I have three data points in concurrence.
Comparative Appraisal $5.4M
Summary - one can extrapolate the value of rarely traded ultra rarities by utilizing other comparable coins and past auction results.
On the other hand, Eliasberg's 1913 Nickel and 1885 Trade Dollar are clear "finest known" pieces. (Edited to say, OK, there's a better 1885, but it has not been seen publicly for 40+ years.) The Dunham 1804 is not. So one has to at least consider the possibility that an increasingly quality-conscious market has caused the two Eliaberg pieces to outperform the Dunham 1804. In that respect, our appraisal task would have been easier if Pogue's PR 68 1804 had been allowed to sell.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Except the 1885 is not the finest known....just the finest graded. Nor is the 1884. And the Eliasberg 1804 was smack dab in the middle of the condition census.
Yes, the 1913 is indeed the finest known.
Yes, I remembered the other 1885 and corrected my comment. Still, the shift towards quality has been a factor.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
It might be a factor...if the 1804 above wasn’t a nice coin. It is. So shrug
If one is to believe the bidding, the Pogues value their 1804 at $10M. If that’s the case, how does it hurt the third finest?
I'm a little late to the game it appears... nothing new here. For a collector that is more into the three digit coins it is a long shot to play with the big seven figure coins. But here is what I found, just too bad I didn't get this post in before TDNs.
Looking back at the auction history in the trusty red book I find that there are not many coins of this caliber that trade frequently enough to get a great baseline. As previously mentioned, the 1913 nickels are about the only one I zeroed in on.
I found that there were a few different data sets to compare. 1990ish has a listing which shows the 1804 dollars trade higher in value to the 1913 nickels.
Then bring in the graded references for those of us that don't know these coins personal names. About 2000ish we again show that 1804 dollars trade higher than the 1913 nickels. We start to see that the lower grade trade more frequently and at a similar ratio price to the lower graded ones of the other coin. The higher graded coins are closer in relation to the higher graded of the other coin as well.
The red book had me off a little initially till I figured out that there is a typo in on of the auction dates for the 1913 nickel... 2001 vs 2008.
But the 2010ish area has a great comparison point in 2013 with the lower graded example of the 1913 and 1804 trading at 3.17 million and 3.88 million. I took these numbers with the recent appearance of the 1913 PR66 at 4.56 million last year and compared that same spread to the very nice PR65 1804 example discussed here and I came up with a current value of about $5.5 million for this valuation.
Based on the above numbers and values and afte extensive research, I find the 1804 dollar to be priced much higher then my current budget allows and can say with utmost surety that you will not have to be concerned with my bidding against you any time soon!
doesnt matter how the Pogues value their coin. Only matters if its really sold and at what price. I can value my 1795 Ten also at 4 Million.