Grades are in!
Coinscratch
Posts: 9,799 ✭✭✭✭✭
I'll sell some of these PM me if interested. But, the real question is will these be worth a lot more in 10 to 15 years?
1 1 37602891 717988 2019-W 25C Lowell NP Early Find MS64 USA
2 1 37602892 717988 2019-W 25C Lowell NP Early Find MS64 USA
3 1 37602893 717988 2019-W 25C Lowell NP Early Find MS64 USA
4 1 37602894 717988 2019-W 25C Lowell NP Early Find MS64 USA
5 1 37602895 717988 2019-W 25C Lowell NP Early Find MS65 USA
6 1 37602896 717988 2019-W 25C Lowell NP Early Find MS65 USA
7 1 37602897 717988 2019-W 25C Lowell NP Early Find MS65 USA
8 1 37602898 717988 2019-W 25C Lowell NP Early Find MS63 USA
9 1 37602899 717988 2019-W 25C Lowell NP Early Find MS65 USA
10 1 37602900 717988 2019-W 25C Lowell NP Early Find MS65 USA
11 1 37602901 717988 2019-W 25C Lowell NP Early Find MS65 USA
12 1 37602902 717988 2019-W 25C Lowell NP Early Find MS65 USA
13 1 37602903 717988 2019-W 25C Lowell NP Early Find MS65 USA
14 1 37602904 717988 2019-W 25C Lowell NP Early Find MS64 USA
15 1 37602905 717988 2019-W 25C Lowell NP Early Find MS65 USA
16 1 37602906 717988 2019-W 25C Lowell NP Early Find MS66 USA
17 1 37602907 717988 2019-W 25C Lowell NP Early Find MS65 USA
18 1 37602908 717988 2019-W 25C Lowell NP Early Find MS66 USA
19 1 37602909 717988 2019-W 25C Lowell NP Early Find MS65 USA
20 1 37602910 717988 2019-W 25C Lowell NP Early Find Genuine UNC Details (98 - Damage) USA
21 1 37602911 717988 2019-W 25C Lowell NP Early Find MS64 USA
22 1 37602912 717988 2019-W 25C Lowell NP Early Find MS64 USA
23 1 37602913 717988 2019-W 25C Lowell NP Early Find MS65 USA
24 1 37602914 717988 2019-W 25C Lowell NP Early Find MS65 USA
Comments
No. They will probably be worth less by the end of the year and even less 10 years from now. Long term, it's probably a $10 coin or less in those grades. See the 1996-W dime and 1970-D Kennedy Half for comparison
I disagree. The 70D and 96W were available in mint sets. These were only available via circulation.
So whats the story with the 1995 W Silver Eagle it brings a nice bounty?
@CoinscratchFever
Do a bay search for sold Ws. Use the values of the last two (maybe one) week to get an idea if what they are going for.
The real answer -- No. Maybe a little over face value on average. Conditions are too low to excite anyone.
I just tried looking up the cert numbers..."invalid cert number". Not in the system yet.
I have been looking, have not found one yet, but the novelty more than likely will wear off soon.
BST transactions: dbldie55, jayPem, 78saen, UltraHighRelief, nibanny, liefgold, FallGuy, lkeigwin, mbogoman, Sandman70gt, keets, joeykoins, ianrussell (@GC), EagleEye, ThePennyLady, GRANDAM, Ilikecolor, Gluggo, okiedude, Voyageur, LJenkins11, fastfreddie, ms70, pursuitofliberty, ZoidMeister,Coin Finder, GotTheBug, edwardjulio, Coinnmore, Nickpatton, Namvet69,...
64 s are/were selling in the $50 range. I'd keep 2 of the 66's, a 65, and a 64 and blow out the rest this weekend.
The sooner you can dump them the better. Remember when many of the first state quarters were routinely bringing $30+/roll on eBay? I do. Now they trade for a small premium above face. The excitement and demand will likely die as it does for many other average grade moderns.
Sell. Supply will continue to increase. The coin is not scarce. Sell while the demand remains high. Mint will keep doing this and it will dilute excitement.
Since there are around 200 different Washington quarters with mintages less than 2,000,000 I find it hard to imagine these will go up in value unless you have top pop maybe. Sell the others quickly, at least until you have your costs covered.
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 448
Sell now... Keep the 66's.....I have not found one yet, takes a while for them to get to my area....
Cheers, RickO
I'm talking population s. Pretty similar
Look at the population. These are NOT rare at 2 million especially against the number of quarter collectors.
Ricko| I agree. I too would keep the 66's and move the rest only for the reason 66 grades may have a chance of appreciating. I can't see much of a price run-up with a modern base metal coin with a 2,000,000 mintage. In a month or two, I would then decide to sell or wait on the 66's.
Keep top pop’s, if collecting, sell all the rest.
There is a registry for the Ws.
2c
I'm on the fence about this. I think that as the years go on and more are found, it may not be a good long term keep.
Except as has been mentioned above.
Pete
as a non modern guy I'm surprised at how few 65s+ there were. It's that hard to get gems on moderns? Is it because they're just real tough on such new material or because of the way the coins are distributed they get dinged up?
Think outside the box. 2 million mintage is high. But how many of these two million will end up in MS 64 and higher slabs? Keep in mind these coins entered the market as circulation coins, not something you can buy BU from the mint. The graded pops, not the mintage is what will determine the future of the graded Ws. The Mariana alone, after 45 days in action shows only 574 coins (out of 2 million minted) as certified MS64 or higher by our host.
Yes, they initially spike in price as most modern mint products do. But because of their uniqueness and low graded pops they should hold decent value. . . especially when they only cost a quarter and approx. $30 in grading costs.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
I'm not saying these won't depreciate.
But I don't think these pops will continue to grow at the current rate. Yes, there's 2 million made, but with the method of distribution, hoarding rolls of these will be a significant challenge. The 2 million are going straight to circulation with no easy method of getting them, so I don't think the oft-repeated mantra of "it's a modern, so hundreds in 68 are just around the corner" really applies here. You won't just find a $500 box with 2000 W's.
You have to get rolls by hunting multiple boxes (if you can even find them) or buying them from someone that spent the time to go through thousands of quarters. edit: Not to mention how many that are getting into circulation that the roll hunters are missing?
The overwhelming majority of these are already 65 or under straight from the mint. I'm guessing the 67's will hold their value fairly well.
There's just no easy way to hoard them. Any other quarter can be bought directly from the mint in various sets/rolls/bags and in any quantity that you want. These can't be.
They don't all end up in slabs because once a 65 or 64 is a $20 item, it's not worth slabbing.
These things follow the same price pattern almost always. These are ultimately probably $10 or $20 items. The price is always maximum right after release.
Not worth slabbing? Anyone with a handful knows better
You can bet most being found by roll searchers are going in slabs. By the time they become $20 items the only raw ones remaining will be non-MS found in circulation. Their initial value is what is driving them all to grading.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
It's because the way the coins are distributed they get dinged up.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
I agree. But the initial feeding frenzy for mint state graded coins is what sends most of them to the TPGs. While these Ws will be found raw for years to come, they will only be found in circulated condition. MS specimens should do better over time than your typical modern mint product that can be bought in 69 or 70 condition directly from the mint.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
Folks,
Keep in mind that just because these were meant for circulation, doesnt mean they actually circulated. Most were all immediately pulled out and saved.
I think you should sell most of them, cover those grading costs so that what you keep is "free."
And disagreeing with the rest if the forum, I also think the MS66s should go first. They will still command a big premium right now, but in another year? I am thinking "nosedive."
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
Do the math. 1% of the mintage is 20,000 coins.
DCW: You do raise a good point that I believe should be considered. One thing for certain, is there are no 'sure bets' in this hobby. My gut feeling is if there is a profit to be made on these, it would be best to take it Now,
Considering the majority of the public doesn't have a clue, I find the bolded part hard to believe.
I agree with @batumi on anything below a 67. 66+ might be worth holding on to as well, but only time will tell on that.
Currently, slabbed by our host as first discovery, first week, or early find.
Lowell: 5429 of 2 million
AM: 578 of 2 million
Less than 1/4th of 1%
The Lowells can no longer be slabbed with one of the attributes listed above, they can only be slabbed as a “generic” 2019-W quarter as of 24 May unless the package was postmarked as such. The cutoff for AMs is today (1 Jun).
Basically, the numbers above will be very close to the final slabbed numbers for the attributes of first find, first week, and early find.
If one was to try and make a 5-quarter set of these Ws the maximum number of complete sets (with an attribution) would be whichever had the lowest number slabbed. Right now the lowest common denominator is the AMs at 578.
2c
My uneducated opinion is that the "early find" thing is going to be meaningless within a year. Shoppers who want a slabbed W in those grades will just pick the cheapest one.
The slabbed non-attributed will be “meaningless.” There are already a few in the pop, but I subtracted those out from the numbers above.
like any new mint product the best prices are early. Prices slide off as time goes by. While the best prices on these W's is immediately after grading, the long term outlook on these is what is different. It is different because these were released for circulation making mint state grades much more difficult the longer the coin has been out in the public. Obtainable mint state grades will likely be limited to the first two-three months after each W coin's release. It's not like they were put away in a mint supplied capsule and can receive the MS grade ten years from now.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
You might consider how treasury distributes. For a new issue like that, it could take months or years for the rolls to get into circulation. There is probably a significant percentage of these going directly to roll searchers requesting them from their friendly neighborhood bank.
I would also suggest that gem examples in virgin rolls will be appearing for months or years.
Beyond that, how many are required to meet demand. Look at what a 69 RP Block Island sells for. Yes, you won't see any 69s here, but the relative position still counts. If 67 is top pop, 66 is equivalent ti 69. And the are 10X MORE of these than the block island.
These are a novelty but by no means rare. With all such coins, the money is made now not later.
If anyone wants to wager, i'll bet 64s are under $5 each in less than 2 years. For double or nothing, i'll bet 65s are under $10 in the same time frame.
Again, don't disagree that peak pricing is at the beginning for the majority of the graded coins. 67's and higher (when/if they get made) will be the coins with value.
Your point about distribution just makes it worse. Once the raw coin prices drop a little more, the incentive for the roll hunters is gone. Once that happens, how are the people having them graded going to reliably be able find them in mint state? As that interest drops, the ability to source fresh ones will become more challenging for the people that are trying to make the top pops.
Sure they'll be out there, but with boxes of quarters having between 0 and 100? W's per box, who is going to bother? It takes a lot of time to search through a box of 50 rolls for W's. The Lowell's had a lower threshold b/c you could glance at a reverse. The Memorial Parks are a PITA b/c you have to check each MM (or have an eye for the difference in luster). The condition is also a problem straight form the mint. These aren't mint set coins, they're rolled coins. Most of them are in pretty bad shape from the start. The rarity of the 67's, the amount of time/resources to find them, and the relatively low return will make it hardly worth pursuing once the initial mania dies down.
There's no reliable way to source these, and it's going to get worse with time.
So yes, some samples might not be found for a few years, but the chances that ... A.) they end up in the hands of someone who is interested in them and... B.) in condition high enough to warrant grading will continue to decrease.
I expect most of the top pop coins to be made this year with some random salting over the next year or two. I would expect the top pop coins to hold their value.
@cladking , I'm also curious on your thoughts.
I agree with all of that. 67 or 68 will be top pop. If there are any 68s, they will probably hold value because they will be genuinely scarce. There will be thousands of tens of thousands of 64 and 65. I also think, based on CoinScratch's results that the 66s will be pretty common. After all, I don't think he cherry-picked a thousand coins. He got 2 out of 24 66s. Scale that up to 10,000 submissions and you have a coin that is not rare in that grade. 67 or 68 will be where the real money is, but even those will probably drop over time.
Considering most of the S mint coins are lower mintages (under 2 million) and readily available at 75 cents I don't see these being over $5 for average uncs long term even with the mixed distribution. If I was going to gamble, it would be at the 67 or higher level, many of the S mints that I've seen straight from the mint bags wouldn't grade that high and presumably the Ws will have much more handling.
I think the proper terminology here is "Think outside the slab."
Totally agree. I searched rolls when I was a teenager, went through some nickels and found some silver war nickels. That was fun, but I never searched through rolls again, until now. Sure it's exciting to get a box of quarters from the bank and perhaps find that elusive W mint mark...it's a treasure hunt after all. I refuse to just buy one already graded...there are going to be ten million out there mixed in...so what if I don't have a slabbed coin that reads Early Find, half the time people here say the coin is more important than the label.
I agree, the value will sink over time, maybe down to $5, but it could take years for the cycle to work through the system, all those boxes sent out to banks sitting in safes...amongst billions of other quarters...
I'm just wondering how long the excitement will last, when will I finally say, aw forget it.
And the real money to be made is in finding and grading the very first coin through PCGS!!!!
But, the real question is will these be worth a lot more in 10 to 15 years?
Congrats finding so many so quickly CoinscratchFever!!!! Well done!
hey sorry guys I’ve been at the hospital for the last few days with the high fever that I’ve had for 10 days. I have been poked and proded with every device known to modern medicine. hopefully I am better in a few days I will respond to all your comments.
Thanks,
Chris
High fevers are not to be ignored. Wishing you the best, get well!
Being in the hospital pre-internet must have been incredibly boring.
If you can't eat, remember, the food probably sucks anyway.
My Saint Set
Get well quick. Hope it's not Lyme.
I'm with the "keep the 66s, sell the rest quickly" crowd.
8 Reales Madness Collection
got to be the raw coins doing you in because we know all the graded coins are clean lol
Kennedys are my quest...
First question to answer is “How many collectors want one”?
Answer = Far less than 2,000,000
Price will drop and continue to drop
You had a lot of fun finding them...I'd sell them all as quickly as you can...
I sent you a PM
Successful buys on BST board from NotSure, Nankraut, Yorkshireman, Astrorat, Ikeigwin(2x), Bob13, Outhaul, coinbuf, dpvilla, jayPem, Sean1990, TwoKopeiki, bidask, Downtown1974, drddm, nederveit2
Just got grades on my latest batch. Highest percentage of 66's yet.
1 1 717998 2019-W 25C American Memorial NP Early Find MS65 USA
2 1 717998 2019-W 25C American Memorial NP Early Find MS66 USA
3 1 717998 2019-W 25C American Memorial NP Early Find MS65 USA
4 1 717998 2019-W 25C American Memorial NP Early Find MS65 USA
5 1 717998 2019-W 25C American Memorial NP Early Find MS66 USA
6 1 717998 2019-W 25C American Memorial NP Early Find MS65 USA
7 1 717998 2019-W 25C American Memorial NP Early Find MS66 USA
8 1 717998 2019-W 25C American Memorial NP Early Find MS65 USA
9 1 717998 2019-W 25C American Memorial NP Early Find MS66 USA
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
@derryb
Congrats! The 66s still go for a nice sum on the bay. Even the 5’s, somewhat.