Options
Dave Wnuck goes out on a limb. 10 year predictions
Justacommeman
Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
Walker Proof Digital Album
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
9
Comments
interesting read. He could have written the exact same thing 20 years ago, replacing "coin" with "stamp" and he would have been right!!!
Seems like all should come true. Who can argue?
Anyone with a serious prediction as good as these wish to add a #11, 12, etc
11 eBay will still be around and coinstartled will still be predicting their demise
interesting read for sure
Predicting that gold and silver will increase in value is like predicting that the national debt will continue to increase.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
Coming out four square against moderns will make this popular if not accurate.
A 1980 mint set wholesales less than face value whether it has a nice clean S mint SBA or not. Yet the blanket prediction is that these coins not worth face value will continue even lower!
Meanwhile he mentions world coins and omits the fact that those which have been going up the most are all modern coins.
In his defense he defends the '64 half which is almost a modern. Missed it by one year.
Thanks for posting.
I am always interested in market analysis.
“I may not believe in myself but I believe in what I’m doing” ~Jimmy Page~
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947)
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
Excellent read. I particularly like the analysis of the world coin market. I’ve always thought the time to get into some of the world issues was now if not yesterday. That the clock is ticking before some of them climb out of range like so many of the US series have.
Some great opportunities to collect out of the norm. Employ what you have learned about surfaces in the US market and use that knowledge to collect beautiful, interesting and historical raw (or slabbed) world coins confidently.
Please sign up for his newsletter. I’m heading up the campaign drive
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
If you plan to get into world coins be very picky with your purchases from the start. The "nice stuff" is what the market will want in the future. The clock is ticking ... much of the world coin "nice stuff" has probably already been put aside by sharp collectors and dealers.
Does he think Tiger will break Jack's record?
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
Go read. I like Dave.
David for President!!!!!
Everybody always talks about Ultra Rarities increasing in price and generic coins going lower into the gutter.
Well, that's kind of Common Sense.
But what about classic Rarities and key dates, such as the 1909-s VDB Lincoln, the 1916-d Mercury dime, the 1916 & 1927 S standing liberty quarter and the 1921 D & S Walker?
How do you think those will fare 10 or 20 years down the road??
Not top pops but just better mint state grades.
This article doesn't really address that. It only talks of the extremes.
Inquiring minds want to know....
“I may not believe in myself but I believe in what I’m doing” ~Jimmy Page~
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947)
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
Great, I guess PCGS will remove prices realized soon too.
EAC 6024
Of the ANA!!!!!
Laura for VP!!!!!
" a more educated collector" And the "dealers" hate this??? I am surprised by this...... As a part part time dealer, I like the educated collector far more then the uneducated ones..
Remember the discussion from one of the top dealers about collectors knowing about the crackout game and not paying up for coins that failed to upgrade too many times.
For the dealers that hate educated collectors, I wonder how much of their profit was from tuition.
I might guess it comes down to needing to change their business model and having a harder time doing so.
Of course, we should post some of Dave's fine coins here too!
Just saw this California game counter in his sold inventory. I've been interested in these for a long time and this one is super lustrous with the John J. Ford, Q. David Bowers pedigrees to boot!
1849-dated $5 Gold Rush Counter NGC MS64 Likely the Finest Known
Generally the legal definition of "Fair Market Value" is the price that:
A competent, willing and knowledgeable seller is prepared to sell for; and what a competent, willing and knowledgeable buyer is prepared to purchase for.
This general definition is one that presumes that both sides to the purchase and sale transaction are competent; are in general equally knowledgeable about the subject matter of the purchase; and are both under no circumstances that require or compel that they immediately sell or purchase.
In many purchase and sale transactions one or both sides are not "willing and/or knowledgeable". On rare occasions one or both sides may not be competent [that can result in all sorts of future fun and games].
In real property, cars, jewelry, coins and countless other areas the disparity in knowledge is many times vast, leading to the person with less knowledge coming ending up with a much worse result than the other person ("Knowledge Is Power" as the saying goes; all hail to those who arm themselves with knowledge, including cherrypickers).
There are also times when one side is under circumstances [illness, divorce, financial hardship, etc.] that compels one to agree to buy or sell on terms, including price, that one would not otherwise agree to.
What is really interesting is purchase and sale transactions where both sides suffer from a combination of a lack of competency, a lack of knowledge and/or a lack of willingness [in these unfortunate cases there is usually one or more third parties who participate in causing the buyer and seller to complete the transaction].
For example, about 25 years ago elderly clients of mine (a couple in their mid 70's who lacked high school diplomas but worked hard and had built up a nest egg) were persuaded to lend money to a woman in her early to mid 90's [at the request of her evil niece, who siphoned the loan proceeds from her aunt] on multiple real property loans. The borrower of course did not pay back the loan. Loan foreclosure and litigation to prevent same ensued. The borrower and her attorney claimed my clients committed various wrongs against her by loaning her money and foreclosing, including "Financial Elder Abuse". My clients in return claimed that the borrower committed various wrongs against them by borrowing money that she did not pay back, including "Financial Elder Abuse".
What a mess, as the transactions entered into by both sides were light years away from meeting the definition of Fair Market Value.
Given the near constant lament about the future of our hobby, this is really interesting, especially that 30% of a coin dealer's customers are female.
I think there's a fair number of Dealers attending shows simply because they are older people who aren't skilled on each of the internet venues needed to be successful. I predict that they will eventually all be replaced by younger, computer literate sellers or will develop relationships with computer literate "types" to take advantage of this new frontier.
If they refuse to adapt their numbers will diminish.
Yes. But also exonumia.
Interesting to think how the ready availability of auction price data has changed the way we all figure prices.
But could all of that data and ease make us less likely to develop and rely on our own sense of value? I mean, in the old days, when price data was so much more difficult to locate, we would often make an educated guess and a quick decision. That required a lot of thought and led to a lot of learning. Especially when we made mistakes! Today, it almost doesn't matter what we think or what we learn. The data rules.
Edited to add one more thought: Perhaps some of this generation's extraordinary focus on quality has something to do with the fact that we no longer have to think much about value and pricing. And if grading were more consistent, perhaps we wouldn't even have to think about quality!
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
The coin hobby and market is evolving... Change is inevitable and those who recognize and embrace change will grow, those who do not, will perish. Change can be good or bad - and actually both... good for those who recognize it and bad for those who resist it. Coin collecting will grow in the new market... and collectors are diverse in background and interests. Go with the flow... and strong swimmers will gain the most. Cheers, RickO
top grades will continue to get higher, a half point at a time every 5-10 years ...
A real newsletter for once not some obnoxious self serving marketing hype “only buy from us” garbage.
I need to bookmark his website.
Interesting observations. However, I agree with cladking regarding moderns. There is a limit to how much of a premium can be placed on esoteric and subtle differences between historical and classic coins. Much of it depends on the hyped promotion factor for each monster rarity - which affects a smaller and smaller group of the body of collectors as time goes by. However often the refresh cycle repeats whenever a new whale appears, it affects very few of us.
As the hairsplitting continues (and it will), I still think that many (newer) collectors will gravitate to the more affordable options that also require less expertise to evaluate and for which pricing is more standardized, including the collecting of Moderns and modern bullion - some of which has become a different type of challenge having its own potential for gain.
I also see no reason why the lesser graded (other than pop top) coins in many of the classic coin series won't also experience a redux as the prices collapse due to a smaller collecting base in my age bracket. Cycles repeat. Affordability has it's own attraction, and coins, especially silver and gold coins, still have a basic appeal as real money or at least a vestige of real money.
I knew it would happen.
If you’re a super speciality collector a coin show is a complete waste of time if you’re looking to buy something. Coin shows are good for selling, socializing, and looking at auction lots. The internet, relationship with dealers, and auctions are your best source of new material. I live in Southern California and I have no idea where the closest B&M coin shop is.
I think having more data allows collectors to be more thoughtful about value and thinking specifically how much a coin is personally valued vs. valued to others.
With less data, I think the quick decision of the past would often lead to unknowingly paying tuition. Today, collectors can be more conscious about how much they value a coin vs. someone else.
As some recent examples, just look at the discussion on recent threads with price history, the Supernova, Hansen Watch, Subway Tokens, etc. While pricing is available, I don’t think people are slaves to the data in any of those threads.
Generally, I think price history is a very good thing.
As for focus on quality, I think that has more to do with pop reports and the easy availability of high resolution photos which many dealers now provide.
Will the Lincoln Cent continue being struck ten years from now?
All of this data available and yet counterfeit Morgan Dollars still get sky high bids on auction/fixed price websites. Remember what P.T. Barnum said ...
I enjoyed the Dave's predictions. Completely agree with him regarding the impact on the flood of information. Just recently I got an email from a dealer I had never done business with before offering me a great coin that had a very high price tag. I did a little research and in about 10 minutes discovered the coin had been crossed from a NGC holder to a PCGS holder at the same grade and last sold as a NGC coin for half the price (the cost for the NGC coin was tens of thousands of dollars less than the now asking price).
I wrote back the dealer and said "nice coin (and it was) but I couldn't justify twice the price with a different holder." He wrote back and apologized profusely saying he didn't know that it was the same coin, etc. I was more troubled by the fact that he either didn't know it was the same coin or was not being truthful about it then I was upset by the asking price (he is free to price it however he wants). Bottom line is 10 years ago or so it could have taken days to figure it out and now just 10 minutes. I am sure he is the type of dealer Dave said hates the flood of new information.
The collectors who currently attend shows tend to skew older, white and male.
I've been attending coin shows for over 50 years, it's always been that way!
Member ANA, SPMC, SCNA, FUN, CONECA
Exactly. The problem dealers are highlighting is that you didn't buy the coin at the offered price
A danger is that certain top dealers are now campaigning to hide information from collectors while claiming collectors have to work with dealers to protect themselves, the same ones working to hide information.
It seems like rather than the make up of coin show attendees changing, it may be the venues that are changing. If this is the case, the prognosis is better for collecting than coin shows....
I do have clients come to me with pricing information telling me what I have to sell them my coin for.
I tell them that my buy price has nothing to do with the value of the coin. I do search endlessly 24/7 for great buys.
My time has value. I spend over 40 hours per week searching for coins for my clients. I have (IMO) the best selection of super eye appealing error coins in the price range that I am in. Every coin is professionally photographed and that is not cheap. I hold some coins for a very long time. I have to carry that cost of capital while the coin is sitting there. And lastly my coin is unique, try to find another one.
I am sure he is the type of dealer Dave said hates the flood of new information.
Exactly. The problem dealers are highlighting is that you didn't buy the coin at the offered price
Especially since he's undoubtedly the one who crossed the coin over to PCGS.
I knew it would happen.
What seems to escape attention is that the scene is changing to the dynamics of INFORMED buyers.
Sure, that's what he means by the volumes of info easily available, but the real story is HOW people who buy coins ...use.. the info.
Decades ago, slabs were controversial. Today it's stickers .
People who ......PAY ATTENTION...... to any field do okay.
Those who don't look at the results of anything new (be it trends or pricing or direction) will lament the "end days" of anything.
This very true for error & variety coins. They are very hard to price for the buyer and seller.
I would actually ....start.... on errors if I knew anything about them.
Having access to information is great. Informed buyers will drive most coin prices down to be in-line with the market, severely reducing the premium dealers are able to get out of your run-of-the-mill average coins. But this will increase the premium associated with PQ / original / truly scarce examples, which is where the serious bucks will be made. I don't think buyers have a problem with paying a premium if they understand all the factors and don't feel like they are being taken advantage of. This will also get dealers to step their game up in terms of the type of coins they carry in their inventory, unless they want to play the narrow margins game. And will also create a push to turn your average coin into something original and worthy of perceived premium, as we see happen with all the blatant (and not so much) toning experiments making their ways into TPG slabs.
8 Reales Madness Collection
Huge learning curve but a fantastic mind-expanding way to collect.
The great thing about collecting errors is that you can never complete a "set" as something new always pops up that you did not know even existed the day before.
The first question I always ask myself about a coin is "how did this happen at the mint"?
Knowing minting practices for the series you collect is a must for any serious collector.
8 Reales Madness Collection
Well, it is possible to complete error sets. There is the missing clad layer statehood quarter sets and your 11 cent double denomination date set. I’m working on a 1999-P centered broadstrike type set and have considered expanding my 1974 clad cent on dime planchet error to a date set. I think completing these types of sets is a great accomplishment and could be a great way to evolve error collecting.
Maybe, with some sets as you mentioned. But, there also may not be any examples (known) that would complete a rare set.
I have usually worked on a "type set" of different types of error coins in all denominations, which is endlessly open never to be completed ... makes the search way more fun.
To me, that makes the hunt all the more exciting because there is a purpose and a goal beyond any individual piece. It adds some mystery and fun to the hunt. The end result also looks like a great accomplishment because of how difficult it is to make a well matched set.
The great thing about collecting is everyone can collect their own way
Are there any situations where you could ever justify letting a dealer make a big fat profit?
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Andy.
Yes.
I can see many situations where a dealer is justified in making a big fat profit.
Especially is the dealer is one who has bent over backwards helping me out as a customer in my collecting endeavors (buying and selling). A symbiotic relationship where both prosper and benefit is much more enjoyable than a parasitic relationship where one thrives and the other withers.
.
.
.
.
Thanks....I’m glad you like it as I just love it so much!
.
CoinsAreFun Toned Silver Eagle Proof Album
.
Gallery Mint Museum, Ron Landis& Joe Rust, The beginnings of the Golden Dollar
.
More CoinsAreFun Pictorials NGC
of course! i have gladly paid dealers a fat profit for coins that i needed or more importantly where they should be rewarded for their risk in obtaining a coin. In fact, once i know a dealer i rarely negotiate on price (again--after i have an established relationship). In the instance i noted---the dealer bought a coin for around 40k and crossed it and wanted 80k. i politely told him that i had a hard time paying that since it had sold recently for 40k. He apologized to me (i wasnt mad) so i think he felt it went beyond a fat profit.