@Zoins said:
Given the near constant lament about the future of our hobby, this is really interesting, especially that 30% of a coin dealer's customers are female.
The collectors who currently attend shows tend to skew older, white and male. But don’t despair, my friends. I spoke to a dealer who sells virtually all his coins on Facebook, his website and other internet outlets and attends maybe 3 shows per year.
He said the customer mix he sees at shows are very different from those in his business. He said the majority of his online customers are 18-45 years old, and about 30% are female. My own experience with my online sales has been similar. People love collecting coins, if only they are exposed to them.
I'll tell you another thing that isn't generally known; there are more and more "minorities" getting into coin collecting.
Anyone who expects this new generation to collect the same things we do in the same ways is a fool.
Everything changes and no changes are bigger than demographic changes. The new collectors' experience is being shaped now. The more pleasant it is for them now the more it will be beneficial to everybody in the long run.
@Gazes said:
Just recently I got an email from a dealer I had never done business with before offering me a great coin that had a very high price tag. I did a little research and in about 10 minutes discovered the coin had been crossed from a NGC holder to a PCGS holder at the same grade and last sold as a NGC coin for half the price (the cost for the NGC coin was tens of thousands of dollars less than the now asking price).
I wrote back the dealer and said "nice coin (and it was) but I couldn't justify twice the price with a different holder."
Are there any situations where you could ever justify letting a dealer make a big fat profit?
I've knowingly paid 100% premiums in the 3-4 figure range which I consider a big fat profit for dealers. Normally, I've done it for absolutely rare pieces which I'd rather have then not. I'm thankful that the piece went to a dealer who has it for sale rather than into a strong hands collection which would make it unavailable for years.
I've also started to place coins on dealer want lists. I've noticed that I will pay more when a coin is on a want list because I'm paying for priority, so I do it sparingly.
The biggest dollar value premium I've seen so far is the gold Reginald Huth piece (Ostheimer-Forsythe specimen) sold for $235,000 in 2012 and was offered for $450,999 in 2015. Not sure if it changed hands in between.
@Zoins said:
Of course, we should post some of Dave's fine coins here too!
Just saw this California game counter in his sold inventory. I've been interested in these for a long time and this one is super lustrous with the John J. Ford, Q. David Bowers pedigrees to boot!
@Zoins said:
Of course, we should post some of Dave's fine coins here too!
Just saw this California game counter in his sold inventory. I've been interested in these for a long time and this one is super lustrous with the John J. Ford, Q. David Bowers pedigrees to boot!
@Zoins said:
Of course, we should post some of Dave's fine coins here too!
Just saw this California game counter in his sold inventory. I've been interested in these for a long time and this one is super lustrous with the John J. Ford, Q. David Bowers pedigrees to boot!
.
.
.
.
Thanks....I’m glad you like it as I just love it so much!
Is that yours now???
Yes,
Congrats! That's a beautiful piece. It has the best surfaces, by far, of any specimen I've seen of these, and I do look for them. Most have zero luster!
@Zoins said:
Given the near constant lament about the future of our hobby, this is really interesting, especially that 30% of a coin dealer's customers are female.
The collectors who currently attend shows tend to skew older, white and male. But don’t despair, my friends. I spoke to a dealer who sells virtually all his coins on Facebook, his website and other internet outlets and attends maybe 3 shows per year.
He said the customer mix he sees at shows are very different from those in his business. He said the majority of his online customers are 18-45 years old, and about 30% are female. My own experience with my online sales has been similar. People love collecting coins, if only they are exposed to them.
I'll tell you another thing that isn't generally known; there are more and more "minorities" getting into coin collecting.
Anyone who expects this new generation to collect the same things we do in the same ways is a fool.
Everything changes and no changes are bigger than demographic changes. The new collectors' experience is being shaped now. The more pleasant it is for them now the more it will be beneficial to everybody in the long run.
That's cool. It's interesting to think how the hobby can evolve.
One area I've been thinking can evolve is coin club meetings. I have one of the best clubs 25 miles away from me but evening meetings are impossible to get to as it can be an hour drive each way to cover that distance. For work, I'm on a lot of remote meetings where we talk, have video and give presentations. I don't have time to join in-person clubs, but I've been wondering if clubs should start doing remote meetings.
Why would I care how much profit the dealer is making as long as I find the price attractive?
(This reminds me of an argument I used to have with a regional HR head: she always wanted to base salary offers on a bump over what the candidate was currently making and I insisted that we offer what the person was worth.)
@Aotearoa said:
Why would I care how much profit the dealer is making as long as I find the price attractive?
I think it's useful to know if you are going to be buried in the coin. When I pay a 100% premium, I do it with my eyes open with the knowledge that I can be buried so I don't look for a quick turn around or expect to make money.
(This reminds me of an argument I used to have with a regional HR head: she always wanted to base salary offers on a bump over what the candidate was currently making and I insisted that we offer what the person was worth.)
The difference here is when there are high prices often times you aren't paying market price, but getting buried.
@Aotearoa said:
Why would I care how much profit the dealer is making as long as I find the price attractive?
I think it's useful to know if you are going to be buried in the coin. When I pay a 100% premium, I do it with my eyes open with the knowledge that I can be buried so I don't look for a quick turn around or expect to make money.
(This reminds me of an argument I used to have with a regional HR head: she always wanted to base salary offers on a bump over what the candidate was currently making and I insisted that we offer what the person was worth.)
The difference here is when there are high prices often times you aren't paying market price, but getting buried.
I don't agree. What the dealer paid for it makes no difference whatsoever. Maybe he got a killer rip or maybe he paid way too much himself. What really counts is how much the coin is worth to me or, if I'm a dealer myself, how much I think I can sell it for.
@Aotearoa said:
Why would I care how much profit the dealer is making as long as I find the price attractive?
I think it's useful to know if you are going to be buried in the coin. When I pay a 100% premium, I do it with my eyes open with the knowledge that I can be buried so I don't look for a quick turn around or expect to make money.
(This reminds me of an argument I used to have with a regional HR head: she always wanted to base salary offers on a bump over what the candidate was currently making and I insisted that we offer what the person was worth.)
The difference here is when there are high prices often times you aren't paying market price, but getting buried.
I don't agree. What the dealer paid for it makes no difference whatsoever. Maybe he got a killer rip or maybe he paid way too much himself. What really counts is how much the coin is worth to me or, if I'm a dealer myself, how much I think I can sell it for.
I don't really care specifically about what someone paid if it was a private transaction, but I do care about market price which reflects a buyer supported price level. If someone purchased a coin at an auction and marked it up 100%, I consider the market price to be the auction price, and the 100% mark up to be the "bury me" price - which I have paid on more than one occasion
I think value is more complicated than "how much the coin is worth to me" or "how much I think I can sell it for" because many people, not necessarily you, may have very high markup that doesn't reflect the market but tuition. When I pay a high price, I prefer to know if I can unwind the position easily or if I'm buried.
@Aotearoa said:
Why would I care how much profit the dealer is making as long as I find the price attractive?
I think it's useful to know if you are going to be buried in the coin. When I pay a 100% premium, I do it with my eyes open with the knowledge that I can be buried so I don't look for a quick turn around or expect to make money.
(This reminds me of an argument I used to have with a regional HR head: she always wanted to base salary offers on a bump over what the candidate was currently making and I insisted that we offer what the person was worth.)
The difference here is when there are high prices often times you aren't paying market price, but getting buried.
I don't agree. What the dealer paid for it makes no difference whatsoever. Maybe he got a killer rip or maybe he paid way too much himself. What really counts is how much the coin is worth to me or, if I'm a dealer myself, how much I think I can sell it for.
I don't really care specifically about what someone paid if it was a private transaction, but I do care about market price which reflects a buyer supported price level. If someone purchased a coin at an auction and marked it up 100%, I consider the market price to be the auction price, and the 100% mark up to be the "bury me" price - which I have paid on more than one occasion
I think value is more complicated than "how much the coin is worth to me" or "how much I think I can sell it for" because many people, not necessarily you, may have very high markup that doesn't reflect the market but tuition. When I pay a high price, I prefer to know if I can unwind the position easily or if I'm buried.
If we’re thinking of a significant coin sold in a public manner to a knowledgeable buyer, then I agree that this would represent establishment of market value and your point is conceded. Rationale minds and all that...
Auction records really provide reasonable guidance as to how often coins are offered at a specific grade. And through what exist today online, it seems that one can look at images which may help justify variation in auction prices. Opportunity needs to be factored into the analysis.
As for World coins, various countries have done well for years. Predicting growth in the world coin market is the equivalent of yesterday's mashed potatoes.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
The expectations in his forecast are reasonable, but I don't totally agree with his prediction for world coinage completely.
I have seen limited evidence in auctions, foreign dealer websites and eBay of increasing acceptance of TPG. If collectors are buying this coinage outside the US in any noticeable number, it must predominantly be from US auctions (primarily Heritage and Stacks as a distant second). I still believe that most of the buyers are from the US, not anywhere else. He is correct that TPG has already "won out" with the best coinage since the marginal buyer is able to set the price, whether everyone else likes it or not. In most instances, most of the better coinage from most countries already was and probably still is located in the US, not anywhere else. In my primary interest, I consistently win the few better coins I want with the balance I follow showing up on dealer sites I know.
My prediction is that the majority of buyers buying world coinage for financial reasons will be disappointed with the outcome. There is no demonstrated causation between economic affluence and collecting anyway, so it certainly won't be for this reason.
@Insider2 said:
Seems like all should come true. Who can argue?
Not sure about the comment that gold and silver will trend higher .....
May not .
@WildIdea said:
Excellent read. I particularly like the analysis of the world coin market. I’ve always thought the time to get into some of the world issues was now if not yesterday. That the clock is ticking before some of them climb out of range like so many of the US series have.
Some great opportunities to collect out of the norm. Employ what you have learned about surfaces in the US market and use that knowledge to collect beautiful, interesting and historical raw (or slabbed) world coins confidently.
This is the attitude I adopted when I plunged into world coin collecting.
However even some great world coins have been messed with .
@thebigeng said:
" a more educated collector" And the "dealers" hate this??? I am surprised by this...... As a part part time dealer, I like the educated collector far more then the uneducated ones..
Being a educated collector promotes the hobby of coin collecting and promotes the exchange of buying and selling .
@skier07 said:
If you’re a super speciality collector a coin show is a complete waste of time if you’re looking to buy something. Coin shows are good for selling, socializing, and looking at auction lots. The internet, relationship with dealers, and auctions are your best source of new material. I live in Southern California and I have no idea where the closest B&M coin shop is.
I do not find that to be true . Some of my best purchases have been at coin shows.
@Gazes said:
Just recently I got an email from a dealer I had never done business with before offering me a great coin that had a very high price tag. I did a little research and in about 10 minutes discovered the coin had been crossed from a NGC holder to a PCGS holder at the same grade and last sold as a NGC coin for half the price (the cost for the NGC coin was tens of thousands of dollars less than the now asking price).
I wrote back the dealer and said "nice coin (and it was) but I couldn't justify twice the price with a different holder."
The dealer who bought the coin in an NGC holder apparently bought the coin extremely reasonable. Good for the buyer of the coin !
This is a good example to buy the coin and not the holder.
Not sure of the specifics but when offered to you in a PCGS holder the offer price may have been a very fair price based on PCGS CAC ( assuming it was ) depending on the coin and still a good buy even at double the price .
Are there any situations where you could ever justify letting a dealer make a big fat profit?
Yes I agree with Sanction’s reply .
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I will say this! Back in the mid 80's I started focusing on World Coins because they were such a value and very easy to find awesome deals! I would also wager my return on my investment for the time period rivals almost any US collection held for the same amount of time. While I don't have an exact figure my overall gain on my world coin collection was in the 500-1000% range. Beats the H outta inflation and the Stock Market which I pulled out of and invested in coins in the mid 90's. When I started selling in the mid 2000's the stock was only moderately higher than what I sold it for as I was following it!
@WCC said:
The expectations in his forecast are reasonable, but I don't totally agree with his prediction for world coinage completely.
I have seen limited evidence in auctions, foreign dealer websites and eBay of increasing acceptance of TPG. If collectors are buying this coinage outside the US in any noticeable number, it must predominantly be from US auctions (primarily Heritage and Stacks as a distant second). I still believe that most of the buyers are from the US, not anywhere else. He is correct that TPG has already "won out" with the best coinage since the marginal buyer is able to set the price, whether everyone else likes it or not. In most instances, most of the better coinage from most countries already was and probably still is located in the US, not anywhere else. In my primary interest, I consistently win the few better coins I want with the balance I follow showing up on dealer sites I know.
My prediction is that the majority of buyers buying world coinage for financial reasons will be disappointed with the outcome. There is no demonstrated causation between economic affluence and collecting anyway, so it certainly won't be for this reason.
@Aotearoa said:
Why would I care how much profit the dealer is making as long as I find the price attractive?
I think it's useful to know if you are going to be buried in the coin. When I pay a 100% premium, I do it with my eyes open with the knowledge that I can be buried so I don't look for a quick turn around or expect to make money.
(This reminds me of an argument I used to have with a regional HR head: she always wanted to base salary offers on a bump over what the candidate was currently making and I insisted that we offer what the person was worth.)
The difference here is when there are high prices often times you aren't paying market price, but getting buried.
I don't agree. What the dealer paid for it makes no difference whatsoever. Maybe he got a killer rip or maybe he paid way too much himself. What really counts is how much the coin is worth to me or, if I'm a dealer myself, how much I think I can sell it for.
Notice no one wants to look at the other side. If a dealer asks for $11,000 for a VG S-VDB that he paid $11,000 for, would you buy it because there was ZERO mark-up?
I just bought a bunch of silver Canada $s for $5 each at an auction because apparently no one else knew they were silver. There's $9 worth of silver in there so that's an 80% mark-up if I sell them just for melt. Would you refuse to buy them because of the mark-up? Do I have to sell them back of melt because of what I paid for them?
@WCC said:
The expectations in his forecast are reasonable, but I don't totally agree with his prediction for world coinage completely.
My prediction is that the majority of buyers buying world coinage for financial reasons will be disappointed with the outcome. There is no demonstrated causation between economic affluence and collecting anyway, so it certainly won't be for this reason.
I think you are slightly misattributing the effect. Although I do think "hobbies" increase with leisure time and, therefore, wealth, throw that argument out if you want. The issue with, for example, Chinese coins does not have to be MORE "collectors", but the presence of collectors who now have the resources to compete with Western buyers for their own cultural heritage. That automatically increases the pool of buyers and money chasing that material.
@WCC said:
The expectations in his forecast are reasonable, but I don't totally agree with his prediction for world coinage completely.
I have seen limited evidence in auctions, foreign dealer websites and eBay of increasing acceptance of TPG. If collectors are buying this coinage outside the US in any noticeable number, it must predominantly be from US auctions (primarily Heritage and Stacks as a distant second). I still believe that most of the buyers are from the US, not anywhere else. He is correct that TPG has already "won out" with the best coinage since the marginal buyer is able to set the price, whether everyone else likes it or not. In most instances, most of the better coinage from most countries already was and probably still is located in the US, not anywhere else. In my primary interest, I consistently win the few better coins I want with the balance I follow showing up on dealer sites I know.
My prediction is that the majority of buyers buying world coinage for financial reasons will be disappointed with the outcome. There is no demonstrated causation between economic affluence and collecting anyway, so it certainly won't be for this reason.
I don't think your observations reflect anything other than the surface of the market which is visible to your while seated in the US.
I generally don't have the opportunity to purchase at shows or shops, so the vast majority of my purchases are online, and almost exclusively at auctions. I have a hard time not accepting that the price paid in a ha.com, stacks, ebay, gc, etc... auction is the market value.
When I see a coin purchased from an actual auction on one of those sites, and then re-listed with markup up to 10x, it baffles me that someone would not take the time to search prior auction results to find the prior price.
Obviously the prior price is just one factor. Sure items are attributed wrong, raw coin slabbed at higher than anticipated grade, or some other anomaly, but the transparency now is far greater than in the past.
@WCC said:
The expectations in his forecast are reasonable, but I don't totally agree with his prediction for world coinage completely.
I have seen limited evidence in auctions, foreign dealer websites and eBay of increasing acceptance of TPG. If collectors are buying this coinage outside the US in any noticeable number, it must predominantly be from US auctions (primarily Heritage and Stacks as a distant second). I still believe that most of the buyers are from the US, not anywhere else. He is correct that TPG has already "won out" with the best coinage since the marginal buyer is able to set the price, whether everyone else likes it or not. In most instances, most of the better coinage from most countries already was and probably still is located in the US, not anywhere else. In my primary interest, I consistently win the few better coins I want with the balance I follow showing up on dealer sites I know.
My prediction is that the majority of buyers buying world coinage for financial reasons will be disappointed with the outcome. There is no demonstrated causation between economic affluence and collecting anyway, so it certainly won't be for this reason.
@WCC said:
The expectations in his forecast are reasonable, but I don't totally agree with his prediction for world coinage completely.
I have seen limited evidence in auctions, foreign dealer websites and eBay of increasing acceptance of TPG. If collectors are buying this coinage outside the US in any noticeable number, it must predominantly be from US auctions (primarily Heritage and Stacks as a distant second). I still believe that most of the buyers are from the US, not anywhere else. He is correct that TPG has already "won out" with the best coinage since the marginal buyer is able to set the price, whether everyone else likes it or not. In most instances, most of the better coinage from most countries already was and probably still is located in the US, not anywhere else. In my primary interest, I consistently win the few better coins I want with the balance I follow showing up on dealer sites I know.
My prediction is that the majority of buyers buying world coinage for financial reasons will be disappointed with the outcome. There is no demonstrated causation between economic affluence and collecting anyway, so it certainly won't be for this reason.
I don’t think that your causal observations have any grounding in the realities of the world coin market.
I am familiar with the coins you buy. My comments are a generalization, not applicable to every collector and every coin. There are hundreds of thousands of non-US coins from thousands of series. So obviously, my comments don't apply to every single coin or every single collector.
In most countries, there won't be any scale to collecting financially** in 10 years** because the coins most collectors want to buy the most don't exist in any supply and definitely not in the quality distribution of the more expensive US coinage. The supply and quality distribution available in US coinage only exists (mostly to a lower extent) in countries with extended traditions of collecting; Western Europe and the Anglo countries.
No one can buy what doesn't exist. With a constricted supply of the most preferred coinage in a disproportionately low quality, what exactly are any noticeable number of collectors supposed to buy?
In the Latin coinage we both collect, there are a very low number of high quality coins selling for "strong" prices. A few buyers can own these coins while every other (prospective) collector is "locked out" or relegated to buying "dreck". This almost certainly means that the future collector base will never resemble the current one for comparable US coinage. A smaller collector base reduces the probability (notice I did not say certainty) of the future prices many US collectors apparently expect.
There are a (very) few coins in "high quality" which are highly preferred. In Latin coinage, royals, cobs, pillars, portraits, CAR, Chile Volcano, Ecuador capped bust...but it isn't many. The highest tier and most preferred can possibly replicate past US performance at least somewhat. The balance of the coins probably lack sufficient appeal. An example are the mid MS grade pillar minors I own. For what I buy, my current collection is one of the best which can probably be assembled but the coins aren't in the elite quality which currently correlates to much higher prices. Absent an entirely new pricing structure, I'd like to know how coins such as mine will somehow become a lot more valuable.
Collecting outside the United States has also not been financialized hardly anywhere and it's evident in the limited adoption of TPG. US collectors will buy the more expensive "world" coinage because our market has been financialized and the coins are so much cheaper. There are plenty of people in every country who can afford to buy their own coinage at much higher prices right now. The only reason they don't is because they choose otherwise.
I have had this conversation with the South Africa collectors I know many times, especially prior to the market peaking in a bubble prior to 2011. They held the same opinion implied in your post. What I am describing in this post, the same dynamic mostly exists with their ZAR and Union coinage. I believe US collectors (and many others) have a (much) higher interest in actual collecting than they do, but it doesn't negate what I am telling you.
@WCC said:
The expectations in his forecast are reasonable, but I don't totally agree with his prediction for world coinage completely.
My prediction is that the majority of buyers buying world coinage for financial reasons will be disappointed with the outcome. There is no demonstrated causation between economic affluence and collecting anyway, so it certainly won't be for this reason.
I think you are slightly misattributing the effect. Although I do think "hobbies" increase with leisure time and, therefore, wealth, throw that argument out if you want. The issue with, for example, Chinese coins does not have to be MORE "collectors", but the presence of collectors who now have the resources to compete with Western buyers for their own cultural heritage. That automatically increases the pool of buyers and money chasing that material.
I don;t disagree with your point if I understand you correctly. It's evident that if existing collectors have increased affluence, they will probably increase their budget. My point is that in most countries, there is little evidence of a collecting presence. The internet changes it somewhat but it doesn't completely neutralize what I wrote in my last post.
This especially applies in markets where there isn't much of anything for the collector to buy from the most preferred coinage which is most of them. A country like China has enough of a collecting presence and the coins seem to exist in a reasonable supply in acceptable quality where a large number (but still much smaller than the US) can possibly buy what they want, if they can afford it.
In Latin American coinage which is a segment of interest to many US collectors, it either does not or apparently does not. I "know" if doesn't with the coins I collect and others I follow closely. Brazil, maybe. Mexico, I'd say a definite "no" for any series up to Republican pre-decimal. Other countries, seems to be even less. There is limited opportunity to attempt type sets in "high" quality and a noticeably larger number in average circulated quality but not necessarily "problem free". Others may believe that "non-elite" quality coinage can or will appreciate substantially, for the most part I do not.
@WCC said:
The expectations in his forecast are reasonable, but I don't totally agree with his prediction for world coinage completely.
In Latin American coinage which is a segment of interest to many US collectors, it either does not or apparently does not. I "know" if doesn't with the coins I collect and others I follow closely. Brazil, maybe. Mexico, I'd say a definite "no" for any series up to Republican pre-decimal.
The reason I still have high hopes for Mexican coinage is that while there isn't a strong collecting base for pre-decimal Republic and Colonials, there's still a pretty large coin collector base for 20th Century series that's relatively young (under 45) and seems to be embracing social media. My 8 Reales Facebook page has close to 1,000 followers who are mostly in Mexico and there are a lot of very active Mexican Numismatics BST groups on that platform, as well. Interestingly enough, there seems to be broad acceptance of coins in details slabs.
I follow a number of Russian coin forums and there seems to be quite a bit of activity, as well. Although there seems to be a huge swing into the treasure hunting territory, as more people get into metal detecting.
@WCC said:
The expectations in his forecast are reasonable, but I don't totally agree with his prediction for world coinage completely.
In Latin American coinage which is a segment of interest to many US collectors, it either does not or apparently does not. I "know" if doesn't with the coins I collect and others I follow closely. Brazil, maybe. Mexico, I'd say a definite "no" for any series up to Republican pre-decimal.
The reason I still have high hopes for Mexican coinage is that while there isn't a strong collecting base for pre-decimal Republic and Colonials, there's still a pretty large coin collector base for 20th Century series that's relatively young (under 45) and seems to be embracing social media. My 8 Reales Facebook page has close to 1,000 followers who are mostly in Mexico and there are a lot of very active Mexican Numismatics BST groups on that platform, as well. Interestingly enough, there seems to be broad acceptance of coins in details slabs.
I follow a number of Russian coin forums and there seems to be quite a bit of activity, as well. Although there seems to be a huge swing into the treasure hunting territory, as more people get into metal detecting.
To my knowledge, 20th century Mexican coinage is lot more common than the series I am describing, Republic Cap & Ray and colonials in better quality. The coins are much scarcer (by an overwhelming margin) versus US and many (probably most) developed market contemporary series but not usually rare or even scarce. If this is correct and most collectors are still wiling to collect across the grade spectrum at (somewhat) meaningful prices, what you imply seems realistic. Today, to my knowledge there are more collectors of Mexican coinage in the US but Mexican collectors presumably have at least an equally strong affinity for their own coinage if not more. With projected demographics, the number should also increase noticeably in the US. With an increasing collector base, it is more likely that a larger number will both be willing and able to pay noticeably higher prices.
Russia is another market where there appears to be a noticeable supply of better quality coinage. I don't follow it closely but have somewhat in the past.
It just depends on what coin someone has in mind and their price expectations. For the most preferred in the highest quality, more so though I still don't believe most of the gap will be closed with comparable US coinage unless the latter loses value noticeably.
It also depends upon collecting style. I don't know if type collecting is practiced widely outside the US. It seems to depend on the variety. Type sets would go a long way toward alleviating the shortage I describe. If not, then most prospective collectors are either going to be "locked out" of the better and often even average quality coinage.
In South Africa, a disproportionate percentage of the Union series (most of their "classics") is disproportionately scarce. There is no evidence of type set collecting and limited indication by denomination in better (not even elite) grades because of the limited supply. As a series. Union is more common than Spanish colonials but there is still very little to buy in any decent quality from most date/denominations.
Comments
I'll tell you another thing that isn't generally known; there are more and more "minorities" getting into coin collecting.
Anyone who expects this new generation to collect the same things we do in the same ways is a fool.
Everything changes and no changes are bigger than demographic changes. The new collectors' experience is being shaped now. The more pleasant it is for them now the more it will be beneficial to everybody in the long run.
I've knowingly paid 100% premiums in the 3-4 figure range which I consider a big fat profit for dealers. Normally, I've done it for absolutely rare pieces which I'd rather have then not. I'm thankful that the piece went to a dealer who has it for sale rather than into a strong hands collection which would make it unavailable for years.
I've also started to place coins on dealer want lists. I've noticed that I will pay more when a coin is on a want list because I'm paying for priority, so I do it sparingly.
The biggest dollar value premium I've seen so far is the gold Reginald Huth piece (Ostheimer-Forsythe specimen) sold for $235,000 in 2012 and was offered for $450,999 in 2015. Not sure if it changed hands in between.
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/949892/the-grand-prize-of-hawaiian-numismatics-reginald-huth-gold#latest
Is that yours now???
Yes,
.
CoinsAreFun Toned Silver Eagle Proof Album
.
Gallery Mint Museum, Ron Landis& Joe Rust, The beginnings of the Golden Dollar
.
More CoinsAreFun Pictorials NGC
Congrats! That's a beautiful piece. It has the best surfaces, by far, of any specimen I've seen of these, and I do look for them. Most have zero luster!
That's cool. It's interesting to think how the hobby can evolve.
One area I've been thinking can evolve is coin club meetings. I have one of the best clubs 25 miles away from me but evening meetings are impossible to get to as it can be an hour drive each way to cover that distance. For work, I'm on a lot of remote meetings where we talk, have video and give presentations. I don't have time to join in-person clubs, but I've been wondering if clubs should start doing remote meetings.
Why would I care how much profit the dealer is making as long as I find the price attractive?
(This reminds me of an argument I used to have with a regional HR head: she always wanted to base salary offers on a bump over what the candidate was currently making and I insisted that we offer what the person was worth.)
Smitten with DBLCs.
I think it's useful to know if you are going to be buried in the coin. When I pay a 100% premium, I do it with my eyes open with the knowledge that I can be buried so I don't look for a quick turn around or expect to make money.
The difference here is when there are high prices often times you aren't paying market price, but getting buried.
I don't agree. What the dealer paid for it makes no difference whatsoever. Maybe he got a killer rip or maybe he paid way too much himself. What really counts is how much the coin is worth to me or, if I'm a dealer myself, how much I think I can sell it for.
Smitten with DBLCs.
I don't really care specifically about what someone paid if it was a private transaction, but I do care about market price which reflects a buyer supported price level. If someone purchased a coin at an auction and marked it up 100%, I consider the market price to be the auction price, and the 100% mark up to be the "bury me" price - which I have paid on more than one occasion
I think value is more complicated than "how much the coin is worth to me" or "how much I think I can sell it for" because many people, not necessarily you, may have very high markup that doesn't reflect the market but tuition. When I pay a high price, I prefer to know if I can unwind the position easily or if I'm buried.
If we’re thinking of a significant coin sold in a public manner to a knowledgeable buyer, then I agree that this would represent establishment of market value and your point is conceded. Rationale minds and all that...
Smitten with DBLCs.
Auction records really provide reasonable guidance as to how often coins are offered at a specific grade. And through what exist today online, it seems that one can look at images which may help justify variation in auction prices. Opportunity needs to be factored into the analysis.
As for World coins, various countries have done well for years. Predicting growth in the world coin market is the equivalent of yesterday's mashed potatoes.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
The expectations in his forecast are reasonable, but I don't totally agree with his prediction for world coinage completely.
I have seen limited evidence in auctions, foreign dealer websites and eBay of increasing acceptance of TPG. If collectors are buying this coinage outside the US in any noticeable number, it must predominantly be from US auctions (primarily Heritage and Stacks as a distant second). I still believe that most of the buyers are from the US, not anywhere else. He is correct that TPG has already "won out" with the best coinage since the marginal buyer is able to set the price, whether everyone else likes it or not. In most instances, most of the better coinage from most countries already was and probably still is located in the US, not anywhere else. In my primary interest, I consistently win the few better coins I want with the balance I follow showing up on dealer sites I know.
My prediction is that the majority of buyers buying world coinage for financial reasons will be disappointed with the outcome. There is no demonstrated causation between economic affluence and collecting anyway, so it certainly won't be for this reason.
Not sure about the comment that gold and silver will trend higher .....
May not .
This is the attitude I adopted when I plunged into world coin collecting.
However even some great world coins have been messed with .
Being a educated collector promotes the hobby of coin collecting and promotes the exchange of buying and selling .
I do not find that to be true . Some of my best purchases have been at coin shows.
The dealer who bought the coin in an NGC holder apparently bought the coin extremely reasonable. Good for the buyer of the coin !
This is a good example to buy the coin and not the holder.
Not sure of the specifics but when offered to you in a PCGS holder the offer price may have been a very fair price based on PCGS CAC ( assuming it was ) depending on the coin and still a good buy even at double the price .
Yes I agree with Sanction’s reply .
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I will say this! Back in the mid 80's I started focusing on World Coins because they were such a value and very easy to find awesome deals! I would also wager my return on my investment for the time period rivals almost any US collection held for the same amount of time. While I don't have an exact figure my overall gain on my world coin collection was in the 500-1000% range. Beats the H outta inflation and the Stock Market which I pulled out of and invested in coins in the mid 90's. When I started selling in the mid 2000's the stock was only moderately higher than what I sold it for as I was following it!
Notice no one wants to look at the other side. If a dealer asks for $11,000 for a VG S-VDB that he paid $11,000 for, would you buy it because there was ZERO mark-up?
I just bought a bunch of silver Canada $s for $5 each at an auction because apparently no one else knew they were silver. There's $9 worth of silver in there so that's an 80% mark-up if I sell them just for melt. Would you refuse to buy them because of the mark-up? Do I have to sell them back of melt because of what I paid for them?
I think you are slightly misattributing the effect. Although I do think "hobbies" increase with leisure time and, therefore, wealth, throw that argument out if you want. The issue with, for example, Chinese coins does not have to be MORE "collectors", but the presence of collectors who now have the resources to compete with Western buyers for their own cultural heritage. That automatically increases the pool of buyers and money chasing that material.
I don't think your observations reflect anything other than the surface of the market which is visible to your while seated in the US.
Latin American Collection
I generally don't have the opportunity to purchase at shows or shops, so the vast majority of my purchases are online, and almost exclusively at auctions. I have a hard time not accepting that the price paid in a ha.com, stacks, ebay, gc, etc... auction is the market value.
When I see a coin purchased from an actual auction on one of those sites, and then re-listed with markup up to 10x, it baffles me that someone would not take the time to search prior auction results to find the prior price.
Obviously the prior price is just one factor. Sure items are attributed wrong, raw coin slabbed at higher than anticipated grade, or some other anomaly, but the transparency now is far greater than in the past.
I am familiar with the coins you buy. My comments are a generalization, not applicable to every collector and every coin. There are hundreds of thousands of non-US coins from thousands of series. So obviously, my comments don't apply to every single coin or every single collector.
In most countries, there won't be any scale to collecting financially** in 10 years** because the coins most collectors want to buy the most don't exist in any supply and definitely not in the quality distribution of the more expensive US coinage. The supply and quality distribution available in US coinage only exists (mostly to a lower extent) in countries with extended traditions of collecting; Western Europe and the Anglo countries.
No one can buy what doesn't exist. With a constricted supply of the most preferred coinage in a disproportionately low quality, what exactly are any noticeable number of collectors supposed to buy?
In the Latin coinage we both collect, there are a very low number of high quality coins selling for "strong" prices. A few buyers can own these coins while every other (prospective) collector is "locked out" or relegated to buying "dreck". This almost certainly means that the future collector base will never resemble the current one for comparable US coinage. A smaller collector base reduces the probability (notice I did not say certainty) of the future prices many US collectors apparently expect.
There are a (very) few coins in "high quality" which are highly preferred. In Latin coinage, royals, cobs, pillars, portraits, CAR, Chile Volcano, Ecuador capped bust...but it isn't many. The highest tier and most preferred can possibly replicate past US performance at least somewhat. The balance of the coins probably lack sufficient appeal. An example are the mid MS grade pillar minors I own. For what I buy, my current collection is one of the best which can probably be assembled but the coins aren't in the elite quality which currently correlates to much higher prices. Absent an entirely new pricing structure, I'd like to know how coins such as mine will somehow become a lot more valuable.
Collecting outside the United States has also not been financialized hardly anywhere and it's evident in the limited adoption of TPG. US collectors will buy the more expensive "world" coinage because our market has been financialized and the coins are so much cheaper. There are plenty of people in every country who can afford to buy their own coinage at much higher prices right now. The only reason they don't is because they choose otherwise.
I have had this conversation with the South Africa collectors I know many times, especially prior to the market peaking in a bubble prior to 2011. They held the same opinion implied in your post. What I am describing in this post, the same dynamic mostly exists with their ZAR and Union coinage. I believe US collectors (and many others) have a (much) higher interest in actual collecting than they do, but it doesn't negate what I am telling you.
I don;t disagree with your point if I understand you correctly. It's evident that if existing collectors have increased affluence, they will probably increase their budget. My point is that in most countries, there is little evidence of a collecting presence. The internet changes it somewhat but it doesn't completely neutralize what I wrote in my last post.
This especially applies in markets where there isn't much of anything for the collector to buy from the most preferred coinage which is most of them. A country like China has enough of a collecting presence and the coins seem to exist in a reasonable supply in acceptable quality where a large number (but still much smaller than the US) can possibly buy what they want, if they can afford it.
In Latin American coinage which is a segment of interest to many US collectors, it either does not or apparently does not. I "know" if doesn't with the coins I collect and others I follow closely. Brazil, maybe. Mexico, I'd say a definite "no" for any series up to Republican pre-decimal. Other countries, seems to be even less. There is limited opportunity to attempt type sets in "high" quality and a noticeably larger number in average circulated quality but not necessarily "problem free". Others may believe that "non-elite" quality coinage can or will appreciate substantially, for the most part I do not.
The reason I still have high hopes for Mexican coinage is that while there isn't a strong collecting base for pre-decimal Republic and Colonials, there's still a pretty large coin collector base for 20th Century series that's relatively young (under 45) and seems to be embracing social media. My 8 Reales Facebook page has close to 1,000 followers who are mostly in Mexico and there are a lot of very active Mexican Numismatics BST groups on that platform, as well. Interestingly enough, there seems to be broad acceptance of coins in details slabs.
I follow a number of Russian coin forums and there seems to be quite a bit of activity, as well. Although there seems to be a huge swing into the treasure hunting territory, as more people get into metal detecting.
8 Reales Madness Collection
To my knowledge, 20th century Mexican coinage is lot more common than the series I am describing, Republic Cap & Ray and colonials in better quality. The coins are much scarcer (by an overwhelming margin) versus US and many (probably most) developed market contemporary series but not usually rare or even scarce. If this is correct and most collectors are still wiling to collect across the grade spectrum at (somewhat) meaningful prices, what you imply seems realistic. Today, to my knowledge there are more collectors of Mexican coinage in the US but Mexican collectors presumably have at least an equally strong affinity for their own coinage if not more. With projected demographics, the number should also increase noticeably in the US. With an increasing collector base, it is more likely that a larger number will both be willing and able to pay noticeably higher prices.
Russia is another market where there appears to be a noticeable supply of better quality coinage. I don't follow it closely but have somewhat in the past.
It just depends on what coin someone has in mind and their price expectations. For the most preferred in the highest quality, more so though I still don't believe most of the gap will be closed with comparable US coinage unless the latter loses value noticeably.
It also depends upon collecting style. I don't know if type collecting is practiced widely outside the US. It seems to depend on the variety. Type sets would go a long way toward alleviating the shortage I describe. If not, then most prospective collectors are either going to be "locked out" of the better and often even average quality coinage.
In South Africa, a disproportionate percentage of the Union series (most of their "classics") is disproportionately scarce. There is no evidence of type set collecting and limited indication by denomination in better (not even elite) grades because of the limited supply. As a series. Union is more common than Spanish colonials but there is still very little to buy in any decent quality from most date/denominations.