1916 - 1933 Liberty Walking Half Dollars

DisneyFan · February 15, 2019 4:42AM

Why are MS64 Early Walkers ignored in favor of MS65s which sell for 2X to 10X more?

ricko · February 15, 2019 8:45AM

Condition rarity and also for use in registry sets.... Cheers, RickO

291fifth · February 15, 2019 8:57AM

Those are expensive coins. Expensive coins tend to be collected by the wealthy, many of whom are ego driven in their collecting interests. They have the money, want the best and overpay to get it.

jmlanzaf · February 15, 2019 9:16AM

You could ask this about any coin in almost any grade.

Why would you pay more for an XF40 relative to a VF30?

Why would you pay more for a 16-D Merc relative to a 16-P for that matter?

RogerB · February 15, 2019 10:09AM

"Grading" is non-linear.

Walkerguy21D · February 15, 2019 10:16AM

I would love to have those dates in MS 64 (I do own a few).
Many years ago I opted to acquire these early dates in AU and lower MS, and the later dates in 64, rather then spending more on the mega grade late date coins. Seems to have been the better move.

clarkbar04 · February 15, 2019 10:41AM

The 16-33 were not saved in roll quantity, and no doubt few survive with original gem surfaces. Many walkers from this era are also not struck very well, mainly from 1918-onward.

The price jump helps create a bit of a barrier too, in many cases is my wager. The 18-s is not a tough coin but the jump from 64-65 is huge.

batumi · February 16, 2019 1:10AM

clarkbar04: The 18-D also has a huge jump from 64 to 65. I have seen a couple MS-64's in the past year that were really nice w/a good strike. One I tried for went for about triple bid, and in retrospect, I believe the winning bidder got a good deal!

DisneyFan · February 17, 2019 11:55AM

@clarkbar04 said:
The 16-33 were not saved in roll quantity, and no doubt few survive with original gem surfaces. Many walkers from this era are also not struck very well, mainly from 1918-onward.

The price jump helps create a bit of a barrier too, in many cases is my wager. The 18-s is not a tough coin but the jump from 64-65 is huge.

I've been tracking the MS64 population of the 1918-S. In the past year it's gone from 437 and 30 in plus to 463/43+ to 477/59+. It looks like somebody discovered a fresh roll or two.

Walkerfan · February 17, 2019 12:37PM

I have modeled my entire early set around collecting 64s that are premium quality as opposed to run-of-the-mill 65s. I feel that I've done rather well.

MFeld · February 17, 2019 12:44PM

@DisneyFan said:

@clarkbar04 said:
The 16-33 were not saved in roll quantity, and no doubt few survive with original gem surfaces. Many walkers from this era are also not struck very well, mainly from 1918-onward.

The price jump helps create a bit of a barrier too, in many cases is my wager. The 18-s is not a tough coin but the jump from 64-65 is huge.

I've been tracking the MS64 population of the 1918-S. In the past year it's gone from 437 and 30 in plus to 463/43+ to 477/59+. It looks like somebody discovered a fresh roll or two.

I believe it’s far more likely that the population increased due to resubmissions and submission of random coins, than to the discovery of “a fresh roll or two”.

Walkerguy21D · February 18, 2019 6:37AM

Although anything is possible, I think it would have made the news if original roll(s) of early walkers turned up, unless the owner really wanted to keep it quiet.
I agree with Mark, and also the desire to own PCGS-holdered coins probably drove some crossovers from NGC.

But I certainly laud your research and observations, DisneyFan - great work!

DisneyFan · February 18, 2019 7:30AM

@DisneyFan said:

@clarkbar04 said:
The 16-33 were not saved in roll quantity, and no doubt few survive with original gem surfaces. Many walkers from this era are also not struck very well, mainly from 1918-onward.

The price jump helps create a bit of a barrier too, in many cases is my wager. The 18-s is not a tough coin but the jump from 64-65 is huge.

I've been tracking the MS64 population of the 1918-S. In the past year it's gone from 437 and 30 in plus to 463/43+ to 477/59+. It looks like somebody discovered a fresh roll or two.

Thank you MFeld & Walkerguy21D

Normally one would expect the populations to increase over time. In the case of the MS64 1918-S there is the increased incentive of attempting to get an upgrade to a plus or full grade because of the dramatic increase in value of a MS65. Seeing a 10% increase in the MS64 population and the pluses double within a year's time is surprising. What caused me to question all of this is the PCGS drop in value of a MS 64 in April 1, 2006 of $6,200 to day's $2,300 and seeing rare CAC examples regularly selling in the $1800s during the past two years at auction. By comparison, an MS64 1916-D has gone from $975 to $1050 during the same period. Meanwhile, the MS65 1918-S has been relatively unharmed dropping from $21,000 to $19,500 during the same time period. Are MS64 Liberty Walking Half Dollars so much out of favor?

Walkerfan · February 18, 2019 8:26AM

2005 and 2006 were the two peak years for Walkers. Almost everything costed a lot more than it does now. That being said, I think that the 18 S in 64 is undervalued, right now, and I hope that it rebounds a bit more to a more realistic level in the future.

mannie gray · February 18, 2019 9:38AM

"MS" 64 offers good value in this series as well as in many others.
It is my "favorite" grade.
With some effort it's quite possible to find and complete a set in 64 that "looks" 65+/66.
Same goes for the lower "MS" grades.
There are some decent 62's and 3's still out there, as well as raw coins.

mannie gray · February 18, 2019 9:39AM

@Walkerfan said:
I have modeled my entire early set around collecting 64s that are premium quality as opposed to run-of-the-mill 65s. I feel that I've done rather well.

Great move on your part.

Walkerfan · February 18, 2019 9:54AM

@mannie gray said:

@Walkerfan said:
I have modeled my entire early set around collecting 64s that are premium quality as opposed to run-of-the-mill 65s. I feel that I've done rather well.

Great move on your part.

Thanks @mannie gray !

Aspie_Rocco · February 18, 2019 10:39AM

This thread is an excellent insight into the Walker market. I lurk threads like this in hope of gaining knowledge through osmosis.
It feels like a genuine treat to get to read and learn details like this.
Thanks folks.

1916 - 1933 Liberty Walking Half Dollars

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