@ricko said:
Ah the doom and gloom thread... Seems we get one or two a week...And yet, coins are being bought and sold, coin shows are, for the most part, busy...The internet has lots of coin sites and business seems brisk. Prices are not cheap by any means....I have not seen any bargains in a long time.... Cheers, RickO
Try selling and you will find out how "hot" the market really is. I have been in the market selling twice in the past year and I can say from experience that the market is not "hot". If you are trying to sell modern proof sets you will find the market colder than the outer reaches of the solar system.
I wouldn’t gauge the health of our hobby by the price of “modern proof sets” Probably one of the worst buys in the last decade or so. Only the mint wins with the sale of them. But as others have said for truly original hard to locate material the market is hot!!! FUN is sold out and I would wager it’s packed this week
The internet and phone device fad is only 20 years old or so while numismatics is thousands of years old. If anything the populace will be getting weary of these stress-inducing video devices that cost more than the human value they add like real hobbies where real people interact in gratifying ways. I would gladly sacrifice the computer I type on for real books and real voluntary associations of like minded people.
@ricko said:
Ah the doom and gloom thread... Seems we get one or two a week...And yet, coins are being bought and sold, coin shows are, for the most part, busy...The internet has lots of coin sites and business seems brisk. Prices are not cheap by any means....I have not seen any bargains in a long time.... Cheers, RickO
Try selling and you will find out how "hot" the market really is. I have been in the market selling twice in the past year and I can say from experience that the market is not "hot". If you are trying to sell modern proof sets you will find the market colder than the outer reaches of the solar system.
I wouldn’t gauge the health of our hobby by the price of “modern proof sets” Probably one of the worst buys in the last decade or so. Only the mint wins with the sale of them. But as others have said for truly original hard to locate material the market is hot!!! FUN is sold out and I would wager it’s packed this week
I was selling nice US type coins as well as the proof sets. The type coins sell as long as the price reflects the current market ...which is lower.
@ricko said:
Ah the doom and gloom thread... Seems we get one or two a week...And yet, coins are being bought and sold, coin shows are, for the most part, busy...The internet has lots of coin sites and business seems brisk. Prices are not cheap by any means....I have not seen any bargains in a long time.... Cheers, RickO
If you are trying to sell modern proof sets you will find the market colder than the outer reaches of the solar system.
At current prices, you might as well take them to the bank.
@logger7 said:
The internet and phone device fad is only 20 years old or so while numismatics is thousands of years old. If anything the populace will be getting weary of these stress-inducing video devices that cost more than the human value they add like real hobbies where real people interact in gratifying ways. I would gladly sacrifice the computer I type on for real books and real voluntary associations of like minded people.
The collecting of coins is not "thousands of years old". Coins themselves are about 2600 years old, but they weren't collected until the Renaissance.
is it a no-brainer that coin (prices) are destined to markedly decline over the next 20 years?
I would say that the market is bi-furcated to rare pieces with demand and those with little or decreasing demand.
It's a no brainer that rare coins with demand will likely continue to go up!
Most coins which most US collectors call rare are not. Most of this stuff isn't even scarce.
Yes, but I'm talking about rare coins, not so-called rare coins
When I think rare, I think of years or decades before another example will become available, if there even is another example.
It depends which rare coins you have in mind. Even coins which have traditionally (as in before TPG and much of current specialization) been considered rare have little if any distinction except for an inflated price. I still expect most of these coins to lose value anyway.
A coin which comes up for sale every few years is still usually not that hard to buy. Within US federal coinage, there are few that come up for sale after decades. Among the few examples are the 1822 and 1854-S half eagles. Others such as the 1861 CSA half dollar and 1792 Washington Getz pattern have actual distinction and I would agree with your opinion.
is it a no-brainer that coin (prices) are destined to markedly decline over the next 20 years?
I would say that the market is bi-furcated to rare pieces with demand and those with little or decreasing demand.
It's a no brainer that rare coins with demand will likely continue to go up!
Most coins which most US collectors call rare are not. Most of this stuff isn't even scarce.
Yes, but I'm talking about rare coins, not so-called rare coins
When I think rare, I think of years or decades before another example will become available, if there even is another example.
While I do agree that truly rare coins that are desired by the cognoscenti will increase in price, I think it is RIDICULOUS to call these sort of coins "The Market". The so called coin market is what is out there generating buy and sell revenue on a daily basis. Yes, truly rare coins do hit the market every now and then, and at that point in time produce revenue. OTOH, the general market is Morgans, Walkers, Mercs, IHC's, Lincolns etc. etc. IMO, except for the rarest and most desirable examples of these series, these coins are going to continue on a downhill slide (excepting, of course, for potential adjustments upwards of PM prices).
is it a no-brainer that coin (prices) are destined to markedly decline over the next 20 years?
I would say that the market is bi-furcated to rare pieces with demand and those with little or decreasing demand.
It's a no brainer that rare coins with demand will likely continue to go up!
Most coins which most US collectors call rare are not. Most of this stuff isn't even scarce.
Yes, but I'm talking about rare coins, not so-called rare coins
When I think rare, I think of years or decades before another example will become available, if there even is another example.
While I do agree that truly rare coins that are desired by the cognoscenti will increase in price, I think it is RIDICULOUS to call these sort of coins "The Market". The so called coin market is what is out there generating buy and sell revenue on a daily basis. Yes, truly rare coins do hit the market every now and then, and at that point in time produce revenue. OTOH, the general market is Morgans, Walkers, Mercs, IHC's, Lincolns etc. etc. IMO, except for the rarest and most desirable examples of these series, these coins are going to continue on a downhill slide (excepting, of course, for potential adjustments upwards of PM prices).
I understand your point but mine was to mention bi-furcation. I think it does a disservice and is an over simplification to imply either everything is going down or everything is going up. There are clear segments that are on a downward trajectory while others are doing well. I think it's better to say one segment will go downhill while another will go uphill, than to say everything is going up or down.
I think the middle of the road coins are in for a tough time due to things people have mentioned:
lower disposable income
moving to experiences vs. things
declining use of money in transactions
I think it's worthwhile to understand overall trends.
The collectors can decide how they want to invest their time and money.
@EagleEye said:
The best series to judge the coin market is Civil War Tokens.
Cheap, common, historical and fun. All you need is to be exposed to them and your a collector.
I like Civil War Tokens a lot and think they are a great way for collectors to enjoy rarity with limited exposure. I've recently picked up a bunch of raw ones in the $50 each range. Here's my current favorite, a R8 which I thought was still very reasonable. I can enjoy it more because I never have to worry about upgrading it
Errors are another area where it's easy to enjoy collecting because of limited prices and the fact you don't have to worry about upgrades or gradeflation. Here's a recent pick up where I don't worry about either.
Comments
I wouldn’t gauge the health of our hobby by the price of “modern proof sets” Probably one of the worst buys in the last decade or so. Only the mint wins with the sale of them. But as others have said for truly original hard to locate material the market is hot!!! FUN is sold out and I would wager it’s packed this week
The internet and phone device fad is only 20 years old or so while numismatics is thousands of years old. If anything the populace will be getting weary of these stress-inducing video devices that cost more than the human value they add like real hobbies where real people interact in gratifying ways. I would gladly sacrifice the computer I type on for real books and real voluntary associations of like minded people.
I was selling nice US type coins as well as the proof sets. The type coins sell as long as the price reflects the current market ...which is lower.
Just wait for the next bubble burst.
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
At current prices, you might as well take them to the bank.
I can't predict the future.
Some people think they can. Some of them will be right.
The collecting of coins is not "thousands of years old". Coins themselves are about 2600 years old, but they weren't collected until the Renaissance.
It depends which rare coins you have in mind. Even coins which have traditionally (as in before TPG and much of current specialization) been considered rare have little if any distinction except for an inflated price. I still expect most of these coins to lose value anyway.
A coin which comes up for sale every few years is still usually not that hard to buy. Within US federal coinage, there are few that come up for sale after decades. Among the few examples are the 1822 and 1854-S half eagles. Others such as the 1861 CSA half dollar and 1792 Washington Getz pattern have actual distinction and I would agree with your opinion.
While I do agree that truly rare coins that are desired by the cognoscenti will increase in price, I think it is RIDICULOUS to call these sort of coins "The Market". The so called coin market is what is out there generating buy and sell revenue on a daily basis. Yes, truly rare coins do hit the market every now and then, and at that point in time produce revenue. OTOH, the general market is Morgans, Walkers, Mercs, IHC's, Lincolns etc. etc. IMO, except for the rarest and most desirable examples of these series, these coins are going to continue on a downhill slide (excepting, of course, for potential adjustments upwards of PM prices).
U.S. Type Set
What goes up must come down and what comes down must go up! Simple
I understand your point but mine was to mention bi-furcation. I think it does a disservice and is an over simplification to imply either everything is going down or everything is going up. There are clear segments that are on a downward trajectory while others are doing well. I think it's better to say one segment will go downhill while another will go uphill, than to say everything is going up or down.
I think the middle of the road coins are in for a tough time due to things people have mentioned:
I think it's worthwhile to understand overall trends.
The collectors can decide how they want to invest their time and money.
The best series to judge the coin market is Civil War Tokens.
Cheap, common, historical and fun. All you need is to be exposed to them and your a collector.
I like Civil War Tokens a lot and think they are a great way for collectors to enjoy rarity with limited exposure. I've recently picked up a bunch of raw ones in the $50 each range. Here's my current favorite, a R8 which I thought was still very reasonable. I can enjoy it more because I never have to worry about upgrading it
Errors are another area where it's easy to enjoy collecting because of limited prices and the fact you don't have to worry about upgrades or gradeflation. Here's a recent pick up where I don't worry about either.
Difficult to predict. Lower pop of coin buyers with money a concern.
A no-brainer??? No, but one can always hope that prices continue to drop. Just means that I can afford to buy more.