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Is the market slowing... what say you?
Boosibri
Posts: 12,400 ✭✭✭✭✭
Doug Winter posted in his latest email that the market is spotty. I have noticed that certain coins which I would have sold immediately earlier in the year now take longer to sell.....Obviously, you can’t gauge the entire market on one coin but I found it surprising that this piece didn’t cause a frenzy (speaking in reference to a tough CAC Charlotte $5).
Any opinions? Mid-terms, post Halloween belly aches, Pre-Thanksgiving planning, stock market malfunction?
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Researching coins using the Heritage auction archives, I can see that every coin I research (half dollars mostly) is down from the 2011-2015 peaks....and dropping fast. This includes common, semi-key and key dates.
This trend started slowly in 2017 and is hitting full steam in 2018. My belief is that the collector base is diminishing (how many board members have died in the last couple of years)? It reads like an obituary on this site. I think coin prices rose really fast for about ten years and now they are cooling off, back to more sane levels IMO.
FWIW, the PCGS 3000 index is up from it's low this summer. Trend? Only time will tell.
All I know is I can't seem to stock enough good material. My picky buyers are buying and tire kickers kicking.
Yes......Yes it is. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure it out...... HELLO?
I think that recent stock market volatility and the mid-term elections created some uncertainty which slowed discretionary purchases...I have heard this from real estate agents especially as it has negatively impacted second home sales...
With regards to DW's coin...he was asking strong money for a coin in the wrong holder with above average but not exceptional eye appeal...
Good thread...am interested to hear other opinions....
It has been spotty, but in the last week, I've suddenly got a bunch of significant orders, and just heard the same thing from a good friend. It has been all fits and starts for the last five years, I think.
What is now proved was once only imagined. - William Blake
Saving for last minute Christmas gift cards.
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
The market seems to be drifting lower pretty smoothly, as far as I can tell. In this sort of market, many collectors (myself included) reach for only the really exceptional pieces, and tend to pass on the rest. Might as well, because "the rest" will likely be lower this time next year. Works until it doesn't anymore.
Sales have been good this year overall but the last 3 weeks have been very bad.
Agreed...seems like everything I've heard over the past month regarding the stock market and politics has been negative (extremely negative!). Even though I tune most of it out, I still hear it, and it has a way of making you feel a little uncertain about things.
Regarding the coin DW mentioned, keep in mind he did say that it sold within a day. I'd guess the 1827 $2.5 pictured in his e-mail doesn't take a day to sell!
Well did today’s action in the stock market make you want to buy coins?
It did for me !
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I would guess that < 5% (or less) of coins actually increase in value outside of inflation. 1880-S Morgan dollars in VF and 1906 Indian Head cents in VG don't increase in value.
Gee. Whatever could be introducing uncertainty in the market?
Gosh, let me think.
I'm watching the HA Dallas auction and things seem ok so far for what I'm following. We'll see where things end up.
Not really surprising to see this in half dollars. Especially given that from 2017 to basically now, a hoard of like 200 1794's was sold at HA split over many auctions. The price of (Edit to add: circulated) 94's took a massive dive (50% maybe?) and undoubtedly brought down the prices of 95s too, although I haven't watched chose. I wonder if that could have put some extra downward pressure onto other series as well like CBH.
Successful transactions with: wondercoin, Tetromibi, PerryHall, PlatinumDuck, JohnMaben/Pegasus Coin & Jewelry, CoinFlip, and coinlieutenant.
Coin market has been very overpriced for a LONG time , especially generic type coins in high grade.
This makes me scratch my head.
I have to hold my nose when buying a common & will only do it to complete a set.
My Saint Set
I dunno. Everything in my corner of the world seems like a rising market. But to be fair, I am talking about exonumia here, and all it takes in a thin market are two people that really want something. Seems like a ton of great material has been hitting the scene and selling for strong prices. I can't remember a better opportunity to expand one's collection, at least since the John J Ford, Jr. auctions.
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
My family keeps getting bigger in numbers, and still no collectors.
That's normal to me.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
Sold within hours of the email.
Sadly, yes. And depressed prices keep the good stuff off the market. The coins that are available are moon money - so they sit.
Keep in mind that Doug sells specific type of coins---primarily gold, primarily older gold, generally a few thousand dollars on up to mid five figures. Much of the gold coins that Doug's sells has been hard to find recently. I believe collectors who purchase those type of coins may have used funds to buy other types of coins, etc due to the lack of coins that Doug generally sells. Now when coins pop up, many of those collectors have either used funds on other coins or may have other areas of interest.
From my neck of the market (early gold)....it’s on fire. I was able to pick up decent material a few years ago on the regular. These days, it seems impossible to find quality material and if you see it you better be on speed dial or ready to empty your bank account. I wish I had held on to a lot of the coins I sold in the past couple years because the market for those coins is so dry. To the point where, recently, coins dear to me were pried from my hands with offers of multiples of what I paid a few years ago. In addition, I was one of the only people with an early gold registry set and since have been buried by by blazing MS collections.
I assume each corner of the market is different, but that’s my experience with quality draped and capped bust gold.
I have yet to see this 'weak' market reflected in prices....True, I am not a seller.... so I cannot gauge market demand.... However, until prices start declining, I will consider these comments to be market cycle related. Cheers, RickO
Yes, @1peter1223 is correct ... the Coin market has been very overpriced for a LONG time. The vast majority of coins are not rare, not even scarce. There are a number of secular forces and US Coins are a very thin market.
What should an '82S Morgan (19,394 in 65 at PCGS), 38D Buff (31,864 in '66 at PCGS), '09S VDB (1,981 in 65 across all colors at PCGS), 1893 25C Isabella (2,123 in '64 thru '67 at PCGS) or a '24 Saint (48,829 in 65 at PCGS, 1,810 CAC'd) really be worth?
My banker keeps getting interest on the loan. I keep making the payments. Something is moving. Backwards..., but it's moving, except for my credit score. It keeps going up. Buy the banks.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
Channeling your inner Jessup?
Latin American Collection
This ^^^^^^^^^^^^
A lot of the angst about "slowing" could easily be the coins that ....most.... people have gravitated to.
How can the market NOT slow for Morgans when the very first year of 1878, more Morgans were minted than the TOTAL of all the preceding seated type?
Same with bust halves. Or any coins that were used in large quantities only as "reserves."
Big $20 gold coins, too. The flood of them from overseas has devastated the price of them.
It just seem logical if the number "available" is taken into account.
The interest rate that banker now charges on such loans (for sake of argument, let's say it's a 30y fixed rate mortgage) has gone from as low as 3.3% six years ago to around 4.8% today. Last year's change in tax laws cut the mortgage interest and property tax deductions off at the knees, reducing affordability further for the relatively affluent who could afford to pay a mortgage on the high-priced coasts. The real estate market at least where I live has definitely turned. We've had a shift from monetary (Fed) easing to fiscal easing, with last year's generational change in corporate tax rates, which has only raised the appetite of the biggest elephant in the room, Federal gov't borrowing.
All this has increased the value of a dollar, and decreased the value of any asset that doesn't produce an income stream. This shouldn't be a surprise.