To illustrate how far prices have fallen.
keets
Posts: 25,351 ✭✭✭✭✭
I think that we all know things with the coin market have slowed down since PM's peaked back in 2012. I know some members will disagree with my joining of the coin market and PM's, but the rise that started around 1998-2000 and the fall that started around the autumn of 2012 are pretty clear to me. I work in a small shop so the stuff I'm talking about is collector material and not rarities or ultra grades.
I noticed a coin on my bosses desk earlier today and recognized it, a 1941-D Mercury Dime grade MS64FB by PCGS. The grade seems appropriate, the coin is clean and bright with good luster but the fields show LDS, so it looks "soft" and has a few ticks on the neck. It was purchased in a large group of PCGS NGC Merc at the end 2015. Typically when we buy and price we'll add our code to the sticker so I can see he paid $60 and according to the faded sticker it was originally priced at $99, we probably would have sold it from $80-90 depending on who the buyer was.
I remember sometime in late 2016 at a show someone ask if the price was right so I checked and was really surprised, it was now listed for $22 and that amount is still written on the price tag. Checking now, it's at $17 in the GreySheet and $22 at the PCGS price guide.
Wow!!
Al H.
Comments
Yes, that's a big drop in not much time.
Were other date Mercuries hit hard, too? What about other 20th century series, like Buffalo Nickels or Washington Quarters in MS grades?
Seems like many common coins are taking price dives. This seems no different than MS64-65 common widget Morgans too. Unless I'm missing something.
Successful transactions with: wondercoin, Tetromibi, PerryHall, PlatinumDuck, JohnMaben/Pegasus Coin & Jewelry, CoinFlip, and coinlieutenant.
I haven't really paid close attention and unless it's something like that which we've had for a while I wouldn't track it. I do know that most of the commonly known key dates from 20th Century series' have all taken a hit in grades through VF and maybe higher. those are what guys want and I always have to refer to a guide because the prices change so much.
Well, it is a late date Mercury that has a large population, and only a fraction of the mintage has been graded. For instance, a couple of years ago, a friend asked me to help her sort out any rare dates from the coins she had accumulated. To my surprise, when I visited her, she had 5 bags of dimes -- each $1000 face value and almost all were gems from the 1940's. That's 50,000 Mercury dimes!
Fake News.
Maybe a mistake?
MS66 FB 1941-D dimes were selling for $45 in 2015.
My 1866 Philly Mint Set
During that period of time, an off-center mercury dime error would have appreciated in value.
There are still a lot of dealers that based on their asking prices on coins, are living in a past reality.
Looking at the over all collectibles market - think Antique Roadshow for one example - estimated price ranges for things that are available in multiples, such as Tiffany stained glass, or old toys, or art prints/posters, are largely down by 25% to 50% from levels of 2005.
When researching my book on Proof coins 1936-1942, I was surprised to see that most auction prices were substantially lower over the past 20 years. In some instances, this was over 50%. The tables in the book represent thousands of open market transactions, There were a few exceptions, but not many and the trend seems to be continuing.
Factors such as population age, disposable income, excess promotion and instability, and loss of true leisure time might be responsible.
Never trust an OP.
A 64 was worth $10 in 2015.
Not saying prices will rise. -)
My 1866 Philly Mint Set
I bought a platinum proof coin from Walmann for $5500. The price guide was $8500 at the time. Sold it for $1500 a few years later. Biggest hit yet.
On the other hand, I bought a 1911 D $2.5 gold indian for $8400 (MS 63 PCGS) a year ago , with the juice.
It was on sale 10 years ago for $17K.
This is fun.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
there's every possibility that my boss made a mistake in the original price, but everything else is accurate.
around June/July 2016 I purchased a PCGS MS67BTW, forget the date, and GreySheet was around $700. about a month or two later I went to sell it and double checked the sheet --- price was around $425 and I crapped my pants, thought I had made a mistake.
I went back through old sheets, we save them, and the price change occurred the week after I bought the coin.
As I research coin purchases with the Heritage data base, it is undeniably that coin prices peaked in 2011-2013 and have been dropping in almost every area.
Lots more coins falling into the " too good for junk, not good enough for slab" category. Bullion is taking a beating too.
Advice for collectors of all kinds, not just coins ... avoid common material. Just where are the collectors of common material going to come from in the future?
I hope they never come. I would like to buy coins the same way collectors did in the 1940s...face value.
A member is selling ms65 double eagles @$1500 per. I checked CoinFacts & it shows pop of ‘27 @almost 29K
I’ll stick w/pms, thank you.
Bullion, baby. That is my sweet spot. There ain’t no secret about the rise and fall.
Grey/purple/orange sheet not necessary.
Nor shirts and shoes.
I recently picked up a PCGS MS69 1982-D Washington commemorative. Beautiful coin with silky devices and near mirror-like fields. A real MS69. These were a $700.00 coin back at the time the OP is describing his Mercury dime. Picked it off of eBay for $35.00 Not a fluke as I see others for sale in the $50.00 to $75.00 range right now.
peacockcoins
and going to get worse
I can remember waltzing into the Denver Mint gift shop during a big snowstorm in January 1983 and buying a bunch of those of Washington Half Dollars for $10 each in OGP. It might have been the same day that the last episode of MASH appeared. You had to be totally ditzy to ever consider paying $700 for one of those coins. Just ditzy. It's not value, it's being mentally ill.
I bought a late-date large cent a few years ago for $3K. My wife looked at it and gasped, saying 'you spent $3,000 for a penny?' She thought I have taken leave of my senses (centses).
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
A 41-D (common date) in 64FB has never been worth that much.....you over paid.
Most US mint modern comms go for silver melt value
To be fair to those wrapped up back then, MS69s were extremely difficult to have PCGS grade for these. Even MS68s were tough. It wasn't until kind of recently the floodgates opened and many more of these were either located in higher grade or PCGS lowered their standards a bit. Either way, what was once a grade scarcity is no longer.
peacockcoins
Downward prices means buying opportunities for collectors. Coins that they have not been able to afford before may possibly be within their reach. They can thus enjoy the hobby even more. As long as the money paid for the purchase of the coins is "discretionary" and not needed for recurring expenses then the collector will be fine.
If the market continues to go down (i.e. because of the shrinking number of collectors in the hobby) well, what can you say or do about that? The hobby has been around a long time and it has had ups and downs. It likely will go up again. If not, well everyone passes on someday and if a collector does not sell his or her collection before death, the heirs will sell. The coins will reenter the market place and continue on their journey until our sun goes supernova.
I bet in an up market those dealers will be your best friend
The coins I'm selling have been doing pretty well, really.
You can get $50 a roll for common date Ikes now. There are quite a few markets that are pretty strong.
platinum proof is a modern bullion.......1911-D Indian is a classic coin. Big difference.
I’m sure you would have made your wife feel better if you had bought a Morgan Dollar.
Hmmm. The Mercs I have decided to sell have been doing fairly well. Most have been before 1934. Common dates is a different story though. Most commons do not sell.
Ken
Pops have exploded for many post 1835 coins in most grades, with prices declining accordingly. This is why I have not bought anything in three years and am looking for three pre 1835 coins to finish my type set. The TDN material excepted.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
I think that availability plays a large role too. You can now find anything easily online. When I returned to collecting a decade or so ago, I was surprised at what I had always thought were scarce key date coins could be easily found online and better grade common dates were plentiful online.
Actually, yes. She inherited a dozen Morgan dollars from her father, and she always has thought Morgans are neat.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
The internet has revealed just how common many, many coins really are. It has also created a much more orderly market.
In my world of mix match .... I notices the softening of the market for my main interest...slabbed gold
Agreed.I have been able to pick up some really nice 63 and 64 $5 Indians for a lot less than just a few years ago. Seem to be a pretty decent value now.
*Gold and silver peaked August and April of 2011 respectfully.
Some coin types seem to be holding prices very well... i.e. 1921 Peace Dollars... and a few others such as WLH's...It seems that certain coins become an area of collector focus for a while and there is a feeding frenzy... Then it dies down and another area will pick up. This could be (and this is just a guess) an effect of social media forums and discussions. Cheers, RickO
keets............I couldn't agree more.
Here in Canada the coin market is absolutely comatose.
2008 Financial crisis hit all the collectors hard, then the Ontario coin shows from 2008 to 2011 were jammed packed but no one purchased coins. They were all purchasing silver maple leaf 1 oz coins and gold ounces by the truckload.
Why?...because of the run-up of PM prices.
Then the collapse of the PMs in 2011-2012.
So in a span of 4 years (2008 to 20120) the Canadian coin collector lost upwards of 50% of their investment TWICE!!
That is why they are not getting back into this market.
I see no hope for a rebound in coin prices and coin commerce until the PMs get back to their 2011 highs and who knows when that will happen.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
To add to my above post.
Making it worse, is the stubborn or uninformed dealer that still sells their merchandise at pre-2008 prices (usually at 80% of Canadian trends list price).
Show after show, I see the same coins collecting dust in their showcase.
What a nightmare.
It is good though, for the true collector, as it is a good time to buy as there are some dealers that have lowered their prices.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
A 64 FULL BANDS was not selling for $10 in 2015
Who's buying common date Ikes at $50 per roll? A dealer just offered me 500 of them for $500 just to get rid of them...and I can rarely buy anything from him because he holds out for the last dollar.
He is not too far off on a common date Mercury in 64FB. We may want them to be worth more but they are not. MS64 is a roll coin grade. How many more 41-D unc rolls do you think there are still out there. I would say a lot.
I'm not defending the $90 price point. But the 64FBs have definitely gone down since 2012 for sure and they still greysheet at $17 today (Bluesheet $14)
A $10 coin in 2015 not 2012. Please reread.
At $17 GS now. How much are the grading fees for the PC FB coin?
My 1866 Philly Mint Set
I set up at the 2011 ANA show .
I remember it wasn't just a buzz on the floor but more like a loud party .
I also went to many dealers tables asking if they were buying stocks for their IRA's or 401k plans .
Not one said they would touch that market .
(It was in the tank then)
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Bulk submitters submit rolls for $5to$7 per coin.