You have some serious issues. Your obsession with this man is frightening and unhealthy. I value your opinions on coins and the market in general. I think you would do best to stick to that.
She can give her opinion any way she wants, since she owns that opinion, not you. Also, who are you to dictate who's opinion is correct?
Giving opinions is fine. Attacking other members is not. Why is she any more entitled to state her opinion than @ironmanl63 entitled to state his?
I was not talking to you. Why do you need to comment on matters not pertaining to you?
My friend isn't that what you are doing right now!
Yes. That was a personal remark to the dude who hands out disagrees for every breathe of air he takes.
@Wabbit2313 said:
I am going back to my boat. These CAC threads are only started to get everyone fighting. I have removed my disagrees and apologize for the rant.
I have to disagree. I started this thread. I wanted to air my views on the likely scenarios for current CAC coins after JA retires (all of which ends well in my opinion for current CAC coins) I genuinely wanted to hear what others thought and listen with an open mind. Not only did i not start it "to get everyone fighting" but was hoping for a good discussion regardless if i agreed or disagreed with the opinions. CAC is an important topic for numismatics and my OP is a fair issue. I would hate to think that any topic about CAC is branded as just trying to start a fight.
Bill Jones has contributed immensely to this forum through a lot of years This place seems to play politics against him. If folks don’t agree completely and worship the big shots opinion they are stupid and/or crazy.
He didn’t even post here and legend lady calls him out. What is the new wave term.... oh bully comes to mind.
In my opinion.
TDN coming very soon. . A light hits the sky with a legend signal.
Please... Save The Stories, Just Answer My Questions, And Tell Me How Much!!!!!
first, i think nice coins continue to be nice, as long as their custodians keep them that way. history has already shown this to be true. in this respect, cac is irrelevant.
second, i think most old holders and/or "important" coins have already been approved. so, if the demand continues for cac...those should increase in value after john's departure, because: 1.) john most likely approved them, 2.) people may doubt the new graders.
finally, if john does a great job with the reference set and grading standards that are proprietary to cac, the grading should remain consistent, assuming whoever continues on doesn't deviate from said standard. i think chances are he has thought of this, as his business model already demonstrates such savvy.
@Wabbit2313 said:
I am going back to my boat. These CAC threads are only started to get everyone fighting. I have removed my disagrees and apologize for the rant.
I have to disagree. I started this thread. I wanted to air my views on the likely scenarios for current CAC coins after JA retires (all of which ends well in my opinion for current CAC coins) I genuinely wanted to hear what others thought and listen with an open mind. Not only did i not start it "to get everyone fighting" but was hoping for a good discussion regardless if i agreed or disagreed with the opinions. CAC is an important topic for numismatics and my OP is a fair issue. I would hate to think that any topic about CAC is branded as just trying to start a fight.
And I am sorry to you @Gazes if I participated in derailing the thread. I think the answer to your question depends on whether CAC the company will continue its market maker function. If not, then I would think the value would go down, not up.
@Wabbit2313 said:
I am going back to my boat. These CAC threads are only started to get everyone fighting. I have removed my disagrees and apologize for the rant.
As an olive branch to you, I will do the same. My goal was to try to kill the squabble and not to extend it. On another note, a "disagree" isn't personal. It isn't the same as saying either one of us is correct or wrong. Few things in numismatics are black and white, and reasonable minds can disagree. You seem to have misinterpreted some of my actions in the past. There was never any animus or hidden motivation directed towards you personally.
JA should have already hired his successor by now to ensure a smooth transition!
Truth:
"In business succession planning, time is either your ally or your enemy. You can spend time planning for succession during your active business lifetime, or postpone planning and wait until the more chaotic, uncertain and expensive succession planning occurs post-mortem, when the choice is no longer yours.
Reluctance to accept the realities of time can have disastrous consequences, especially since timing issues are often beyond an owner’s control. Just as the aging CEOs of major corporations are pressed by shareholders who demand a succession plan to protect their investments, so too a small business owner should implement a succession plan to protect the interests of all stakeholders.
The lesson? Start early. Select your successor(s).."
Somehow I feel like this is akin to the Wizard of Oz. Everyone can be replaced and surely there is someone just as qualified that would garner the same degree of respect in the industry from both dealers and collectors
@ScarsdaleCoin said:
Somehow I feel like this is akin to the Wizard of Oz. Everyone can be replaced and surely there is someone just as qualified that would garner the same degree of respect in the industry from both dealers and collectors
....and ultimately we didn't need a pair of eyes from the wizard...our own worked fine.
I joined cac early, but submitted very few coins to them, not realizing the economic benefit of getting the bean. For me it is only economics, that someone will back the coin with an offer near Greysheet, all they would have to do is maintain the cac sticker, with strong offers behind it.
CAC and PCGS grading are tools that can be a big help but they seem to turn into crutches . After you break a leg you need crutches but the goal is to walk without them eventually not to hobble around on them for the rest of your life like a dumbass
Collecting is supposed to be fun stop squinting at price guides and enjoy your coins.
Anyway, it is not so easy to just start a grading or sticking biz. The main point is not being corrupt. Some of the best graders out there would possibly give in to their buddies pressures. Plus, JA is universally accepted by his peers-he did help found PCGS and fully founded NGC. Over the years, if it had been so easy to do, others would have done it. Several have and failed or have become 3rd world services.
You're viewing her post in isolation. She has a history of outright attacking Bill presumably because of his stance on CAC and has hurled a number of insults towards him and other members. I saw her use of "Bill Jones Jr." as a diminutive and a continuation of her normal bluster. Someone can correct me if that was not her intent.
That's absolutely correct, I've read the attacks. So why don't all you little policemen flag everything she writes because of what she did before. Heck, let's flag every post of hers as some claim to know what she is thinking!
There is only one person even ELIGIBLE to drop a flag and that is Mr, Bill hisownself - which I see he did although her post was directed to another member's comment and placed him in the same boat as the other CAC haters here. CAC is a lucrative (if they turn a profit) business for its owner and its employees. It is probably a blessing for all the folks knowledgeable enough to play the game. For the ignorant folks, it is just a crutch.
I should have thought that Mr. Bill, and all the rest of you are comfortable enough in your own shoes so that anything the "Dragon Lady" fires at you would turn to smoke without doing any harm. We are lucky to have her and most of you posting here. The entertainment value keeps me coming back for more.
BTW, did the uninformed member who put down NCG as a "poop hole" [my interpretation of his ignorant remarks] TPGS receive a flag from any of you? IMO, it deserved to but I'm biased.
@specialist said:
Darn, I leave for a few hours and....
Anyway, it is not so easy to just start a grading or sticking biz. The main point is not being corrupt. Some of the best graders out there would possibly give in to their buddies pressures. Plus, JA is universally accepted by his peers-he did help found PCGS and fully founded NGC. Over the years, if it had been so easy to do, others would have done it. Several have and failed or have become 3rd world services.
But I think JA is in a league of his own and would have zero problems getting traction with a new grading service. What I would love more than anything is for John to split CAC into two different companies owned by the same parent corporation: (1)one that could function as a grading service to compete with NGC and PCGS and (2) a second arm that is blindly managed to run the market maker end. As long as the two are separate and it is done blindly (i.e. by an independent person overseeing the second arm), I don't think there would be conflicts/problems.
@Insider2 said: That's absolutely correct, I've read the attacks. So why don't all you little policemen flag everything she writes because of what she did before. Heck, let's flag every post of hers as some claim to know what she is thinking!
Great question! I usually hit the first post or so of each episode of behavior (or perceived episode) that I see. She introduced this anew in this thread. I believe that context matters. Yes, I can move on, but when I see the same animus and vitriol over and over again, I call it out. I think bullying of any kind and in fighting is toxic to an online community as it quells legitimate dissent and civil discourse that can led to productive discussions. If we can't have legitimate discussions involving points of contention in numismatics, then what is the point of us participating at all? Group think is very powerful and counterproductive.
@insider2
There is only one person even ELIGIBLE to drop a flag and that is Mr, Bill hisownself - which I see he did although her post was directed to another member's comment and placed him in the same boat as the other CAC haters here. CAC is a lucrative (if they turn a profit) business for its owner and its employees. It is probably a blessing for all the folks knowledgeable enough to play the game. For the ignorant folks, it is just a crutch.
I'm not sure if you intended to include me in the "CAC haters" or not, but I do not hate CAC. I have no vendetta against CAC or JA. I think they offer a valuable service and have contributed positively to the hobby. With that said, I think some of the market participants have taken things to obsessive and ridiculous points. I think CAC has caused unintended consequences worthy of discussion. Yes the grading services arguably did the same thing, but with each new level we split more and more hairs to the point of lunacy and to the point that it destabilizes the market.
Laura makes a salient point and competing hypothesis. It is absolutely possible that CAC is serving as a crutch and is holding up the rare coin market as a whole. It is also possible that it is having the opposite effect. CAC coins sell for a premium (obviously); however, I do not believe that it is possible to completely un-tether CAC and non-CAC coins. There must be some logical limit to the split in price. At what point do bidders say, "enough." Is a 63+ really worth more than a problem free 64- with no sticker (all other factors equal)? Moreover is a 64.5 really worth that much more than a 64.3? If so, what is the limit? 1x? 3x? 5x? 10x? As CAC pushes down the price of unstickered coins, I would argue it also constrains the value of CACed material to a degree. Even if my hypothesis is wrong, the idea that a coin magically becomes unsaleable and not liquid in many circumstances based on a sticker is concerning and suggests an unhealthy market. If you can take a 64 that you cannot move and downgrade it to a 63 CAC and receive more money, something is seriously wrong. The quality of the coin should be dispositive and not the plastic and stickers (or else we become plastic/sticker collectors).
Also, group think and lack of diversity of opinion is also unhealthy. Yes, I agree with Bill Jones et al. that no one grading service or sticker service should be able to dictate an entire market or else it opens the doors for problems. What if that service shuts its doors? What would happen then? Is the entire market doomed?
'If you can take a 64 that you cannot move and downgrade it to a 63 CAC and receive more money, something is seriously wrong.'
Precisely. Plastic can indeed limit perceived value. If the 64 were all there for the grade, then this sort of thing is one indicator of what drives many coin transactions---buyers looking for coins with upgrade potential. Pay more money for a 63 CAC, and hope to crack it out and get an upgrade (and then find a buyer). Marketing at its finest.
Member: EAC, NBS, C4, CWTS, ANA
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
@Insider2 said: That's absolutely correct, I've read the attacks. So why don't all you little policemen flag everything she writes because of what she did before. Heck, let's flag every post of hers as some claim to know what she is thinking!
Great question! I usually hit the first post or so of each episode of behavior (or perceived episode) that I see. She introduced this anew in this thread. I believe that context matters. Yes, I can move on, but when I see the same animus and vitriol over and over again, I call it out. I think bullying of any kind and in fighting is toxic to an online community as it quells legitimate dissent and civil discourse that can led to productive discussions. If we can't have legitimate discussions involving points of contention in numismatics, then what is the point of us participating at all? Group think is very powerful and counterproductive.
@insider2
There is only one person even ELIGIBLE to drop a flag and that is Mr, Bill hisownself - which I see he did although her post was directed to another member's comment and placed him in the same boat as the other CAC haters here. CAC is a lucrative (if they turn a profit) business for its owner and its employees. It is probably a blessing for all the folks knowledgeable enough to play the game. For the ignorant folks, it is just a crutch.
I'm not sure if you intended to include me in the "CAC haters" or not, but I do not hate CAC. I have no vendetta against CAC or JA. I think they offer a valuable service and have contributed positively to the hobby. With that said, I think some of the market participants have taken things to obsessive and ridiculous points. I think CAC has caused unintended consequences worthy of discussion. Yes the grading services arguably did the same thing, but with each new level we split more and more hairs to the point of lunacy and to the point that it destabilizes the market.
Laura makes a salient point and competing hypothesis. It is absolutely possible that CAC is serving as a crutch and is holding up the rare coin market as a whole. It is also possible that it is having the opposite effect. CAC coins sell for a premium (obviously); however, I do not believe that it is possible to completely un-tether CAC and non-CAC coins. There must be some logical limit to the split in price. At what point do bidders say, "enough." Is a 63+ really worth more than a problem free 64- with no sticker (all other factors equal)? Moreover is a 64.5 really worth that much more than a 64.3? If so, what is the limit? 1x? 3x? 5x? 10x? As CAC pushes down the price of unstickered coins, I would argue it also constrains the value of CACed material to a degree. Even if my hypothesis is wrong, the idea that a coin magically becomes unsaleable and not liquid in many circumstances based on a sticker is concerning and suggests an unhealthy market. If you can take a 64 that you cannot move and downgrade it to a 63 CAC and receive more money, something is seriously wrong. The quality of the coin should be dispositive and not the plastic and stickers (or else we become plastic/sticker collectors).
Also, group think and lack of diversity of opinion is also unhealthy. Yes, I agree with Bill Jones et al. that no one grading service or sticker service should be able to dictate an entire market or else it opens the doors for problems. What if that service shuts its doors? What would happen then? Is the entire market doomed?
I like your post and well-written opinion. My comments follow:
You posted: "I usually hit the first post or so of each episode of behavior (or perceived episode) that I see."
Great, what's good for the gander is good for the other gander. I shall be watching. Points of contention make the world go around. Stupid comments based on a point of contention deserved to be mocked and ridiculed in every way possible. It is lucky there are rules around here.
You posted: "I'm not sure if you intended to include me in the "CAC haters" or not,"
Nope, I don't know or care who hates CAC or not. If anyone says something I consider stupid about CAC, I'll write my opinion in a nice manner. I think what you said about CAC is probably all true however I should think they may have stabilized the market. There is a lot of junk in TPGS slabs. Perhaps the only fault with CAC is they may be too tough but it is JA's money so he gets to do the picking. Because of this, there are probably some nice coins around to buy without a sticker.
As for your final paragraph. The market does the voting. What anyone thinks is not important. Get in the game or don't choose to play. At the moment, until something else comes along, CAC is the game. Didn't our host "police" itself when they developed the Secure holder?
@CCGGG said:
CAC needs to bring in some folks (now) that are recognized to have the same standards as JA to "maintain" their credibility. I still think computer grading will be the way to go at some point. If they change the stickers, IMO, that would support the idea the new coins won't carry the weight. Or maybe CAC will just fade away and coins they graded will carry a "pedigree".
I can see it now. PCGS labels that say "CAC", just like some say GSA, etc.
Computer grading is highly unlikely.
What do you use as the training set? Who decides the grade of the training set coins? This is perhaps the single largest issue.
Other issues:
How does it account for weak strike vs wear?
What happens to the grading services (the business opportunity) as computers only assign 1 grade to a coin ever?
Will the dealer marketplace disappear as grading knowledge becomes irrelevant?
How does one petition the computer system?
Die polish vs. cleaning in the computer’s eyes? Similar concerns exist with in the die vs PMD.
@CCGGG said:
CAC needs to bring in some folks (now) that are recognized to have the same standards as JA to "maintain" their credibility. I still think computer grading will be the way to go at some point. If they change the stickers, IMO, that would support the idea the new coins won't carry the weight. Or maybe CAC will just fade away and coins they graded will carry a "pedigree".
I can see it now. PCGS labels that say "CAC", just like some say GSA, etc.
Computer grading is highly unlikely.
What do you use as the training set? Who decides the grade of the training set coins? This is perhaps the single largest issue.
Other issues:
How does it account for weak strike vs wear?
What happens to the grading services (the business opportunity) as computers only assign 1 grade to a coin ever?
Will the dealer marketplace disappear as grading knowledge becomes irrelevant?
How does one petition the computer system?
Die polish vs. cleaning in the computer’s eyes? Similar concerns exist with in the die vs PMD.
If one were cynical , it might occur to one that the grading services don't wish to do to good a job of grading. Fluffing their quarterly earnings is not our problem , they can just join the buggy whip manufacturers on the scrap heap of history.
torpedo the dealer marketplace yesterday if not sooner , a bunch of clowns wholesaling the same widgets around endlessly doesn't do anyone any good.
no petitioning the computer , the grade is the grade forevermore , if you have OCD see a shrink , say ... can you swing by my house and just check to make sure I shut the gas off? I'd do it my self but I have to make sure all these light switches are up . Then I have to wash my hands 245 times .
As for point number 5 we just dip then wire brush everything before the computer grades it to solve that problem .
@MrEureka said:
I’ve asked myself similar questions about PCGS and NGC. It always leads me to the same place. If you wouldn’t be happy owning the coin raw, it doesn’t belong in your collection.
Something to take to heart
"Inspiration exists, but it has to find you working" Pablo Picasso
Computer grading has been tried at least twice. Failure both times. Who knows about AI. It will probably be possible to teach a computer to measure the microscopic depth and interior of a hub mark or scratch vs the height of the die polish at some point in time but It will not be good enough while most of us are still living.
The best thing a computer can do now is to "map" a coin - just as a diamond. Map it, grade it by a group of humans and the grade is set = computer grading.
Here we go again. Well while others can grade its pretty well known that JA is the guru of grading. So his opinion matters more to me then most if not all. I don’t personally know anybody that buys only CAC coins so the BS that often gets slung in these threads that people are lemmings or devotees is just that. BS. I bought a 40K medal without a sticker last year as I’ve looked at so many that I knew it was solid. It’s hadn’t been into CAC. I recently sent it in through the dealer I bought it from. It stickered. Is it worth more now? Probably. I just know I like the fact that JA liked it as well as myself and the dealer. Confirmation from JA is a good thing. There isn’t a negative.
I’ll take a stab at the OP’s question
If JA announced he was ending the service eventually you would see an avalanche of submissions. Post JA the spread would widen in value CAC coins over non CAC coins. Classic gold through Saints would be the most effected. Mid four figure coins and up would also benefit. NGC coins without stickers God help your soul especially on big ticket items.
Whether you like CAC or not the evidence is overwhelming that stickered coins being more money then non stickered coins. PCGS stickered coins being at the top of the pyramid.
Unless you plan on living forever and plan on keeping your coins into eternity or just don’t like your heirs then by all means don’t use the service. If you think you are the smartest person in the room and you’ve convinced everyone else your the bestest grader ever don’t use the service. If you ever plan on selling your coins during your lifetime and like money and your family I think you would be a fool not to use this service IMO ( on low to mid four figure coins and higher)
mark
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Unless you plan on living forever and plan on keeping your coins into eternity or just don’t like your heirs then by all means don’t use the service. If you think you are the smartest person in the room and you’ve convinced everyone else your the bestest grader ever don’t use the service. If you ever plan on selling your coins during your lifetime and like money and your family I think you would be a fool not to use this service IMO ( on low to mid four figure coins and higher)
One great thing about CAC is that the playing field gets leveled between NGC and PCGS when that green sticker shows. JA treats them the same. Also I would like to see their scope expand to include remaining proofs not currently recognized through 1964. There are some really tough cameo issues that should be verified.
sorry folks, no here comes close to seeing what I do day to day. that is why I go nutso over comments that I know are so far off base.
I don't remember anyone screaming abotu David Hall in his hey day w/PCGS having too much power? No look at where we are-gradeflation is rampant. So JA stood up.
Someone call me a dragon lady?? I prefer NYC cab driver
I like Bill a great deal. Bill has also flat out attacked these folks, and CAC. Sometimes unjustly so.
This is simply false. Bill has brought out a different opinion on CAC than the favorable one that many here have (including me). He has never once 'flat out attacked these folks' (what folks - be specific), never resorted to name calling, or denigration of anyone, anytime. He has just come out with an opinion that many don't like including some heavy hitters in the buisness of numismatics. I largely agree with the buisness side concern of his but value the opinion of CAC and what it brings to the table in terms of understanding quality for the grade and surfaces.
If JA retired, he would be hard to replace, however, there are many top notch graders out there, including Bill Jones, that one can learn from. So I cannot prognosticate on what would happen on such an event.
@bidask said:
Should JA retire I think I think Mr Eureka would be a great choice to take JA's place .
Thanks for the recognition but I disagree. Not because I don’t think I can grade well enough, but because there’s a whole lot more to the job than grading coins. (Remember, he buys and sell a ton of coins when he’s not grading them. And then there’s the small matter of running a business and taking phone calls all day.) In fact, there are probably hundreds of people who can grade well enough to grade for CAC. And if JA’s job was just about grading coins, I would guess that he would have hired a few more graders and left CAC years ago. Unfortunately, I think he trapped himself this time.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
@MrEureka said:
I’ve asked myself similar questions about PCGS and NGC. It always leads me to the same place. If you wouldn’t be happy owning the coin raw, it doesn’t belong in your collection.
@MrEureka said:
I’ve asked myself similar questions about PCGS and NGC. It always leads me to the same place. If you wouldn’t be happy owning the coin raw, it doesn’t belong in your collection.
Agreed. I ask collectors frequently: "Picture this coin in a 2x2. What would it be worth to you?"
@fiftysevener said:
One great thing about CAC is that the playing field gets leveled between NGC and PCGS when that green sticker shows. JA treats them the same. Also I would like to see their scope expand to include remaining proofs not currently recognized through 1964. There are some really tough cameo issues that should be verified.
Can cameo proofs be properly evaluated through a plastic slab window?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Well this was an interesting - and entertaining - thread to read. The OP posed a valid scenario with tentative outcomes....After that we see the tumult and chaos of typical forum threads. Threads such as this provide so much information for character analysis of contributors. It also becomes like so many holiday family dinners turn out.... Among the wreckage there are some excellent points though. Onward to the future.... Cheers, RickO
@fiftysevener said: "One great thing about CAC is that the playing field gets leveled between NGC and PCGS when that green sticker shows. JA treats them the same. Also I would like to see their scope expand to include remaining proofs not currently recognized through 1964. There are some really tough cameo issues that should be verified."
CAC helps eliminate errors and is said to sticker the ideal-no-question coins for the grade. I'd like to see CAC sticker coins from every TPGS. For some reason, they do not. It's all about the coin and not the label - RIGHT?
@specialist said: "I don't remember anyone screaming abotu David Hall in his hey day w/PCGS having too much power? No look at where we are-gradeflation is rampant. So JA stood up."
Apples and oranges. IMO, PGGS was established by coin dealers for coin dealers. They had the power and it was freely given to them by the market. Dealers did not like the strict way coins were being graded at the time. When they realized there was a lot they didn't know about counterfeits, they hired a professional authenticator. Over time dealers forced the TPGS's to lower standards that started more tolerant in the beginning. Most loved the idea of PCGS because now anyone could be a coin dealer with smaller risk. Some resisted. One major high-end dealer, I remember in particular. Eventually, he came on board with everyone.
So, PCGS came about when others were not doing the job. NGC came about for the same reason. There should never have been a reason to start CAC if the TPGS's were "doing their job." IMO, JA has not stopped gradeflation. It has been continuing. What I think CAC has done is to narrow down the grading errors. All TPGS's make errors in grading. It comes with the territory. CAC is just another level of protection and there is room for someone else to come along and verify CAC coins. That said, does it really matter? Guarantees are in place to protect the collector.
"Someone call me a dragon lady?"
(Looking left and then right Ah, I think someone did. The "Dragon Lady" was a very powerful woman. Whoever called you that probably should be flagged for abuse although he probably thinks the name fits. ( Exit thread)
An interesting comment, Insider2. Several dealers have told me similar things about the start of third-party grading, They also believed that the acceptance of TPGs has led to a reduction in dealer grading skills. Many just push slabs.
Member: EAC, NBS, C4, CWTS, ANA
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
@fiftysevener said:
One great thing about CAC is that the playing field gets leveled between NGC and PCGS when that green sticker shows. JA treats them the same. Also I would like to see their scope expand to include remaining proofs not currently recognized through 1964. There are some really tough cameo issues that should be verified.
Can cameo proofs be properly evaluated through a plastic slab window?
To the extent any coin could be evaluated inside a slab, I think yes. Evaluation is done by TPG's and CAC is a verifier confirming A or B quality (nothing more).
Comments
Yes. That was a personal remark to the dude who hands out disagrees for every breathe of air he takes.
I am going back to my boat. These CAC threads are only started to get everyone fighting. I have removed my disagrees and apologize for the rant.
I have to disagree. I started this thread. I wanted to air my views on the likely scenarios for current CAC coins after JA retires (all of which ends well in my opinion for current CAC coins) I genuinely wanted to hear what others thought and listen with an open mind. Not only did i not start it "to get everyone fighting" but was hoping for a good discussion regardless if i agreed or disagreed with the opinions. CAC is an important topic for numismatics and my OP is a fair issue. I would hate to think that any topic about CAC is branded as just trying to start a fight.
Bill Jones has contributed immensely to this forum through a lot of years This place seems to play politics against him. If folks don’t agree completely and worship the big shots opinion they are stupid and/or crazy.
He didn’t even post here and legend lady calls him out. What is the new wave term.... oh bully comes to mind.
. A light hits the sky with a legend signal.
In my opinion.
TDN coming very soon.
.
first, i think nice coins continue to be nice, as long as their custodians keep them that way. history has already shown this to be true. in this respect, cac is irrelevant.
second, i think most old holders and/or "important" coins have already been approved. so, if the demand continues for cac...those should increase in value after john's departure, because: 1.) john most likely approved them, 2.) people may doubt the new graders.
finally, if john does a great job with the reference set and grading standards that are proprietary to cac, the grading should remain consistent, assuming whoever continues on doesn't deviate from said standard. i think chances are he has thought of this, as his business model already demonstrates such savvy.
If JA retires CAC will never be the same .....
CAC should be closed down.
I will depend on Mr Eureka to help me grade coins .
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
And I am sorry to you @Gazes if I participated in derailing the thread. I think the answer to your question depends on whether CAC the company will continue its market maker function. If not, then I would think the value would go down, not up.
Cool beans...a weekend CAC thread.
As an olive branch to you, I will do the same. My goal was to try to kill the squabble and not to extend it. On another note, a "disagree" isn't personal. It isn't the same as saying either one of us is correct or wrong. Few things in numismatics are black and white, and reasonable minds can disagree. You seem to have misinterpreted some of my actions in the past. There was never any animus or hidden motivation directed towards you personally.
A lot of what professes to be coin collecting in this forum is really just various forms of mental illness on display.
There is truth behind all good humor.
Truth:
"In business succession planning, time is either your ally or your enemy. You can spend time planning for succession during your active business lifetime, or postpone planning and wait until the more chaotic, uncertain and expensive succession planning occurs post-mortem, when the choice is no longer yours.
Reluctance to accept the realities of time can have disastrous consequences, especially since timing issues are often beyond an owner’s control. Just as the aging CEOs of major corporations are pressed by shareholders who demand a succession plan to protect their investments, so too a small business owner should implement a succession plan to protect the interests of all stakeholders.
The lesson? Start early. Select your successor(s).."
wealthmanagement.com/family-business/myths-and-realities-succession-planning-small-businesses
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
I dont have any info either way, but how do you know he doesnt have a succession plan?
Based on specialist comment earlier in the thread that he's not found a worthy successor.
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
Somehow I feel like this is akin to the Wizard of Oz. Everyone can be replaced and surely there is someone just as qualified that would garner the same degree of respect in the industry from both dealers and collectors
....and ultimately we didn't need a pair of eyes from the wizard...our own worked fine.
I joined cac early, but submitted very few coins to them, not realizing the economic benefit of getting the bean. For me it is only economics, that someone will back the coin with an offer near Greysheet, all they would have to do is maintain the cac sticker, with strong offers behind it.
CAC and PCGS grading are tools that can be a big help but they seem to turn into crutches . After you break a leg you need crutches but the goal is to walk without them eventually not to hobble around on them for the rest of your life like a dumbass
Collecting is supposed to be fun stop squinting at price guides and enjoy your coins.
Darn, I leave for a few hours and....
Anyway, it is not so easy to just start a grading or sticking biz. The main point is not being corrupt. Some of the best graders out there would possibly give in to their buddies pressures. Plus, JA is universally accepted by his peers-he did help found PCGS and fully founded NGC. Over the years, if it had been so easy to do, others would have done it. Several have and failed or have become 3rd world services.
That's absolutely correct, I've read the attacks. So why don't all you little policemen flag everything she writes because of what she did before. Heck, let's flag every post of hers as some claim to know what she is thinking!
There is only one person even ELIGIBLE to drop a flag and that is Mr, Bill hisownself - which I see he did although her post was directed to another member's comment and placed him in the same boat as the other CAC haters here. CAC is a lucrative (if they turn a profit) business for its owner and its employees. It is probably a blessing for all the folks knowledgeable enough to play the game. For the ignorant folks, it is just a crutch.
I should have thought that Mr. Bill, and all the rest of you are comfortable enough in your own shoes so that anything the "Dragon Lady" fires at you would turn to smoke without doing any harm. We are lucky to have her and most of you posting here. The entertainment value keeps me coming back for more.
BTW, did the uninformed member who put down NCG as a "poop hole" [my interpretation of his ignorant remarks] TPGS receive a flag from any of you? IMO, it deserved to but I'm biased.
But I think JA is in a league of his own and would have zero problems getting traction with a new grading service. What I would love more than anything is for John to split CAC into two different companies owned by the same parent corporation: (1)one that could function as a grading service to compete with NGC and PCGS and (2) a second arm that is blindly managed to run the market maker end. As long as the two are separate and it is done blindly (i.e. by an independent person overseeing the second arm), I don't think there would be conflicts/problems.
Why is it of any importance beyond the immediate? The coins have not changed, only new eyes will eventually examine them.
Great question! I usually hit the first post or so of each episode of behavior (or perceived episode) that I see. She introduced this anew in this thread. I believe that context matters. Yes, I can move on, but when I see the same animus and vitriol over and over again, I call it out. I think bullying of any kind and in fighting is toxic to an online community as it quells legitimate dissent and civil discourse that can led to productive discussions. If we can't have legitimate discussions involving points of contention in numismatics, then what is the point of us participating at all? Group think is very powerful and counterproductive.
I'm not sure if you intended to include me in the "CAC haters" or not, but I do not hate CAC. I have no vendetta against CAC or JA. I think they offer a valuable service and have contributed positively to the hobby. With that said, I think some of the market participants have taken things to obsessive and ridiculous points. I think CAC has caused unintended consequences worthy of discussion. Yes the grading services arguably did the same thing, but with each new level we split more and more hairs to the point of lunacy and to the point that it destabilizes the market.
Laura makes a salient point and competing hypothesis. It is absolutely possible that CAC is serving as a crutch and is holding up the rare coin market as a whole. It is also possible that it is having the opposite effect. CAC coins sell for a premium (obviously); however, I do not believe that it is possible to completely un-tether CAC and non-CAC coins. There must be some logical limit to the split in price. At what point do bidders say, "enough." Is a 63+ really worth more than a problem free 64- with no sticker (all other factors equal)? Moreover is a 64.5 really worth that much more than a 64.3? If so, what is the limit? 1x? 3x? 5x? 10x? As CAC pushes down the price of unstickered coins, I would argue it also constrains the value of CACed material to a degree. Even if my hypothesis is wrong, the idea that a coin magically becomes unsaleable and not liquid in many circumstances based on a sticker is concerning and suggests an unhealthy market. If you can take a 64 that you cannot move and downgrade it to a 63 CAC and receive more money, something is seriously wrong. The quality of the coin should be dispositive and not the plastic and stickers (or else we become plastic/sticker collectors).
Also, group think and lack of diversity of opinion is also unhealthy. Yes, I agree with Bill Jones et al. that no one grading service or sticker service should be able to dictate an entire market or else it opens the doors for problems. What if that service shuts its doors? What would happen then? Is the entire market doomed?
'If you can take a 64 that you cannot move and downgrade it to a 63 CAC and receive more money, something is seriously wrong.'
Precisely. Plastic can indeed limit perceived value. If the 64 were all there for the grade, then this sort of thing is one indicator of what drives many coin transactions---buyers looking for coins with upgrade potential. Pay more money for a 63 CAC, and hope to crack it out and get an upgrade (and then find a buyer). Marketing at its finest.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
I like your post and well-written opinion. My comments follow:
You posted: "I usually hit the first post or so of each episode of behavior (or perceived episode) that I see."
Great, what's good for the gander is good for the other gander. I shall be watching.
Points of contention make the world go around. Stupid comments based on a point of contention deserved to be mocked and ridiculed in every way possible. It is lucky there are rules around here.
You posted: "I'm not sure if you intended to include me in the "CAC haters" or not,"
Nope, I don't know or care who hates CAC or not. If anyone says something I consider stupid about CAC, I'll write my opinion in a nice manner. I think what you said about CAC is probably all true however I should think they may have stabilized the market. There is a lot of junk in TPGS slabs. Perhaps the only fault with CAC is they may be too tough but it is JA's money so he gets to do the picking. Because of this, there are probably some nice coins around to buy without a sticker.
As for your final paragraph. The market does the voting. What anyone thinks is not important. Get in the game or don't choose to play. At the moment, until something else comes along, CAC is the game. Didn't our host "police" itself when they developed the Secure holder?
It didn't hurt my feelings at all to be called Bill JR.
It was actually a complement considering who said it! 
Computer grading is highly unlikely.
What do you use as the training set? Who decides the grade of the training set coins? This is perhaps the single largest issue.
Other issues:
How does it account for weak strike vs wear?
What happens to the grading services (the business opportunity) as computers only assign 1 grade to a coin ever?
Will the dealer marketplace disappear as grading knowledge becomes irrelevant?
How does one petition the computer system?
Die polish vs. cleaning in the computer’s eyes? Similar concerns exist with in the die vs PMD.
Choice Numismatics www.ChoiceCoin.com
CN eBay
All of my collection is in a safe deposit box!
If one were cynical , it might occur to one that the grading services don't wish to do to good a job of grading. Fluffing their quarterly earnings is not our problem , they can just join the buggy whip manufacturers on the scrap heap of history.
torpedo the dealer marketplace yesterday if not sooner , a bunch of clowns wholesaling the same widgets around endlessly doesn't do anyone any good.
no petitioning the computer , the grade is the grade forevermore , if you have OCD see a shrink , say ... can you swing by my house and just check to make sure I shut the gas off? I'd do it my self but I have to make sure all these light switches are up . Then I have to wash my hands 245 times .
As for point number 5 we just dip then wire brush everything before the computer grades it to solve that problem .
Après lui, le déluge.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
Something to take to heart
"Inspiration exists, but it has to find you working" Pablo Picasso
Trying to make some sense of that.
Computer grading has been tried at least twice. Failure both times. Who knows about AI. It will probably be possible to teach a computer to measure the microscopic depth and interior of a hub mark or scratch vs the height of the die polish at some point in time but It will not be good enough while most of us are still living.
The best thing a computer can do now is to "map" a coin - just as a diamond. Map it, grade it by a group of humans and the grade is set = computer grading.
Here we go again. Well while others can grade its pretty well known that JA is the guru of grading. So his opinion matters more to me then most if not all. I don’t personally know anybody that buys only CAC coins so the BS that often gets slung in these threads that people are lemmings or devotees is just that. BS. I bought a 40K medal without a sticker last year as I’ve looked at so many that I knew it was solid. It’s hadn’t been into CAC. I recently sent it in through the dealer I bought it from. It stickered. Is it worth more now? Probably. I just know I like the fact that JA liked it as well as myself and the dealer. Confirmation from JA is a good thing. There isn’t a negative.
I’ll take a stab at the OP’s question
If JA announced he was ending the service eventually you would see an avalanche of submissions. Post JA the spread would widen in value CAC coins over non CAC coins. Classic gold through Saints would be the most effected. Mid four figure coins and up would also benefit. NGC coins without stickers God help your soul especially on big ticket items.
Whether you like CAC or not the evidence is overwhelming that stickered coins being more money then non stickered coins. PCGS stickered coins being at the top of the pyramid.
Unless you plan on living forever and plan on keeping your coins into eternity or just don’t like your heirs then by all means don’t use the service. If you think you are the smartest person in the room and you’ve convinced everyone else your the bestest grader ever don’t use the service. If you ever plan on selling your coins during your lifetime and like money and your family I think you would be a fool not to use this service IMO ( on low to mid four figure coins and higher)
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
What if James Halperin stepped in to fill the void w/ a sticker. He tried a grading service once.
One great thing about CAC is that the playing field gets leveled between NGC and PCGS when that green sticker shows. JA treats them the same. Also I would like to see their scope expand to include remaining proofs not currently recognized through 1964. There are some really tough cameo issues that should be verified.
Should JA retire I think I think Mr Eureka would be a great choice to take JA's place .
Not sure if Mr. Eureka would consider though .
He loves traveling!
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
sorry folks, no here comes close to seeing what I do day to day. that is why I go nutso over comments that I know are so far off base.
I don't remember anyone screaming abotu David Hall in his hey day w/PCGS having too much power? No look at where we are-gradeflation is rampant. So JA stood up.
Someone call me a dragon lady?? I prefer NYC cab driver
I've noticed the OP has posted quite a few CAC threads. Just sayin'.......
Great transactions with oih82w8, JasonGaming, Moose1913.
This is simply false. Bill has brought out a different opinion on CAC than the favorable one that many here have (including me). He has never once 'flat out attacked these folks' (what folks - be specific), never resorted to name calling, or denigration of anyone, anytime. He has just come out with an opinion that many don't like including some heavy hitters in the buisness of numismatics. I largely agree with the buisness side concern of his but value the opinion of CAC and what it brings to the table in terms of understanding quality for the grade and surfaces.
If JA retired, he would be hard to replace, however, there are many top notch graders out there, including Bill Jones, that one can learn from. So I cannot prognosticate on what would happen on such an event.
Best, SH
Thanks for the recognition but I disagree. Not because I don’t think I can grade well enough, but because there’s a whole lot more to the job than grading coins. (Remember, he buys and sell a ton of coins when he’s not grading them. And then there’s the small matter of running a business and taking phone calls all day.) In fact, there are probably hundreds of people who can grade well enough to grade for CAC. And if JA’s job was just about grading coins, I would guess that he would have hired a few more graders and left CAC years ago. Unfortunately, I think he trapped himself this time.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Agreed. I ask collectors frequently: "Picture this coin in a 2x2. What would it be worth to you?"
As spelling isn't one of your strong points...
Was that supposed to be NYC CAC Driver?
.
Can cameo proofs be properly evaluated through a plastic slab window?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Well this was an interesting - and entertaining - thread to read. The OP posed a valid scenario with tentative outcomes....After that we see the tumult and chaos of typical forum threads. Threads such as this provide so much information for character analysis of contributors. It also becomes like so many holiday family dinners turn out....
Among the wreckage there are some excellent points though. Onward to the future.... Cheers, RickO
@fiftysevener said: "One great thing about CAC is that the playing field gets leveled between NGC and PCGS when that green sticker shows. JA treats them the same. Also I would like to see their scope expand to include remaining proofs not currently recognized through 1964. There are some really tough cameo issues that should be verified."
CAC helps eliminate errors and is said to sticker the ideal-no-question coins for the grade. I'd like to see CAC sticker coins from every TPGS. For some reason, they do not. It's all about the coin and not the label - RIGHT?
@specialist said: "I don't remember anyone screaming abotu David Hall in his hey day w/PCGS having too much power? No look at where we are-gradeflation is rampant. So JA stood up."
Apples and oranges. IMO, PGGS was established by coin dealers for coin dealers. They had the power and it was freely given to them by the market. Dealers did not like the strict way coins were being graded at the time. When they realized there was a lot they didn't know about counterfeits, they hired a professional authenticator. Over time dealers forced the TPGS's to lower standards that started more tolerant in the beginning. Most loved the idea of PCGS because now anyone could be a coin dealer with smaller risk. Some resisted. One major high-end dealer, I remember in particular. Eventually, he came on board with everyone.
So, PCGS came about when others were not doing the job. NGC came about for the same reason. There should never have been a reason to start CAC if the TPGS's were "doing their job." IMO, JA has not stopped gradeflation. It has been continuing. What I think CAC has done is to narrow down the grading errors. All TPGS's make errors in grading. It comes with the territory. CAC is just another level of protection and there is room for someone else to come along and verify CAC coins. That said, does it really matter? Guarantees are in place to protect the collector.
"Someone call me a dragon lady?"
(Looking left
and then right 
Ah, I think someone did. The "Dragon Lady" was a very powerful woman. Whoever called you that probably should be flagged for abuse although he probably thinks the name fits. ( 
Exit thread)
An interesting comment, Insider2. Several dealers have told me similar things about the start of third-party grading, They also believed that the acceptance of TPGs has led to a reduction in dealer grading skills. Many just push slabs.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
To the extent any coin could be evaluated inside a slab, I think yes. Evaluation is done by TPG's and CAC is a verifier confirming A or B quality (nothing more).