What happens to CAC coins post JA--some thoughts
Gazes
Posts: 2,315 ✭✭✭✭✭
I have wanted to post my thoughts on an important issue for awhile and to see what other collectors thought as well but have held off because this forum may burst into flames if we have CAC threads too often. In all seriousness, I do think it is an important issue and deserves an intelligent conversation. So often I have heard people say what will happen once JA no longer is around at CAC (hopefully because of a wonderful retirement) to coins already stickered and trading at a premium. One caveat, I am talking primarily about top tier coins where the sticker can make a difference of thousands of dollars. I think 3 scenarios can happen:
1) CAC remains exactly the same. Whoever takes over has the exact same standards and business operation. If that is the case then there should be no change in the way CAC is priced or viewed. There would not be a flood of new CAC coins or a distinction between JA CAC or Post JA CAC.
2) CAC simply shuts down operations. If CAC stopped doing business after JA leaves then I would imagine immediately the premium on CAC stickered coins would increase. After all, anyone who wants a CAC coin now could get one already stickered and the number of CAC coins would be a finite amount that could not increase.
3) Whoever takes over CAC has far more liberal standards for stickering and many coins that previously did not get stickered now become CAC (this last assumption assumes that the new owner stickers in an identical way and it can not be distinguished from an older sticker. If the new owner had a different sticker than the market would price the older stickers much like scenario 2). This is the scenario that probably concerns most people. As people point out on this forum all the time, at the end of the day it is the coin that matters and not the plastic or sticker. Over time, enough people believe that coins that have the CAC sticker deserve a premium because those coins are solid or high for the grade and have not been doctored. If an enormous amount of new CAC stickers were placed for instance on old gold coins, I believe the post JA CAC coins would trade lower than the JA CAC coins. For instance, if two identically graded Dahlonega quarter eagles went on the block--same grading service, same grade (say MS 61) and both stickered (one during JA CAC and one post JA CAC) even though one of them would never past muster during JA's reign----the two coins would not go for identical prices. The market forces would see that the JA CAC coin was original, was a true MS 61, and was solid for the grade. The post JA CAC coin would be identified a shiny, bright and not original, possibly not a true unc coin and possible problems and would go for far less. In other words, this third example (which most would say would be the worst for collectors currently with CAC coins) would not be a negative but would simply make the coins stand on their own eye appeal and those who believe in JA's eye would do just fine.
So in summary, the first example would maintain the status quo. The second example would increase the price on CAC coins. The final example would essentially be neutral since the coins would be viewed once again on their own merits and assuming you believe JA has stickered correctly, those coins would be rewarded in the market. None of the scenarios would create a drop in JA CAC coins.
Curious regarding other thoughts. Thanks
Comments
I would think if JA retires they would have to change the sticker. After all it is his opinion most are seeking with a CAC sticker. If they did not change the sticker I believe it would be a disservice to all previous customers and would over time lessen the value of the sticker.
If we are just going to hypothetically speculate what will occur...
I'll go with all the stickers might spontaneously explode?
CAC needs to bring in some folks (now) that are recognized to have the same standards as JA to "maintain" their credibility. I still think computer grading will be the way to go at some point. If they change the stickers, IMO, that would support the idea the new coins won't carry the weight. Or maybe CAC will just fade away and coins they graded will carry a "pedigree".
I can see it now. PCGS labels that say "CAC", just like some say GSA, etc.
To me, they will be worth the same they are now - nothing. JA's highly subjective opinion of a coin doesn't matter to me. I am collecting coins by my standards of "high quality", not his.
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My sets: [280+ horse coins] :: [France Sowers] :: [Colorful world copper] :: [Beautiful world coins]
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I’ve asked myself similar questions about PCGS and NGC. It always leads me to the same place. If you wouldn’t be happy owning the coin raw, it doesn’t belong in your collection.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Do you also consider your own opinions “highly subjective”?
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Here we freaking go.......
Great transactions with oih82w8, JasonGaming, Moose1913.
Yes, all opinions are subjective. But my opinions matter when I'm spending MY money...
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My sets: [280+ horse coins] :: [France Sowers] :: [Colorful world copper] :: [Beautiful world coins]
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I know JA well. If any one were to take over, JA would make sure they conform to the highest standards and ethics. The sad thing is, I know at one time he had his eye on some people, but they had only one of those traits. Its super rare a dealer/grader will be both top notch and not corruptable.
I agree with this statement 100%. My opinion on the OP deals with when you go to sell. It is a proven fact when you sell a CAC sticker helps liquidity and prices realized. If JA is no longer working for CAC this will change!
In your "For instance", seems there are some critical issues worthy of some commentary. Just because two coins are graded the same (using your Dahlonega quarter eagle as an example graded MS61) ...And even even they sticker, that does NOT make them equal or mean that they should sell for the same price. In your example, it seems that the coin itself will ultimately dictate the hammer price. Your so-called "market forces" are free to develop their own thoughts as grade, where the coins fit within that grade, and whether the coin itself maybe original. A CAC sticker does mean the coin has original surfaces... It is more of an opinionated measure of where a coin stands within the slabbed grade opinion. And that is not bad and is a terrific endorsement for certain coins at grade levels with significant evaluation spreads between grades. Going back to your "For instance", I would suggest the coin itself will dictate price more than a holder or sticker. An original Dahlonega gold coin speaks volumes without the help of a holder or CAC. Processed No Motto Gold is... Well... Processed No Motto Gold that will never been seen in the same light as originals. Opinions can change... The coin is what remains constant unless someone believes it can be enhanced in an effort to obtain a higher grade. So the processed population increases at the expense of diminishing the remaining population of originals. Sad... But that is what has transpired over the past 30 years.
As to your question about what happens? The CAC opinion will be appreciated for what it was at the time the opinion was rendered. In many instances with high graded coins with big spreads, the opinion will likely carry a premium or at a minimum instill confidence that the coin is what it should be for the grade.
Over time I suspect lesser valued coins that are generic will not likely retain much of a premium, if any... I have never understood the need to send common date Morgan dollars graded up to MS65 in for a CAC review.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
Buy the coin (you like) not the decorations.
Although I buy the coin and not the label or sticker, I believe there would be a change in price if JA is no longer part of the company. I believe it would shake the confidence of some people that now pay a premium for the sticker because of JA's reputation. A different sticker may make more sense to know there is a different set of eyes looking at these coins, but this scenario may not bode well for the future of CAC because depending on the reputation of the new set of eyes it may be received in a different light by collectors.
Edited to add: If the sticker is not changed when JA is no longer a part of CAC I believe collectors may start to look more at the coin and not just the sticker as you would not know if JA looked at it or someone else.
Donato
Donato's Complete US Type Set ---- Donato's Dansco 7070 Modified Type Set ---- Donato's Basic U.S. Coin Design Set
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If CAC were to shut, its safe to assume (based on today's demand) ALL CC coins would be worth more. They have set the standard for what is real quality-I do not care what any wannabes say. If not show me a coin NOT from a fresh new collection that brings the same price in an auction as a CAC coin.
Just to be clear, in my example, I agreed that an original Dahlonega gold coin speaks volumes--period. I think at this point, more than 80% of unc Dahlonega quarter eagles have been to CAC for review. If you see a Dahlonega quarter eagle in UNC and stickered now---I have very high confidence that is a coin most would want. My example in the OP was a "what if" JA was not around and someone stickered coins with a far lower standard. In that case, a JA stickered Dahlonega quarter eagle at PCGS 61 and the post Dahlonega quarter eagle at PCGS 61 even though both stickered would go for far different prices since the quality of the coins would determine the ultimate price. In other words, buyers now in the JA CAC era would not be hurt even if there was future CAC gradeflation.
JA should have already hired his successor by now to ensure a smooth transition!
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
Gazes... We are close to writing similar things. I suppose the biggest difference is that I place greater emphasis on the state of preservation a coin that can be within a certain grade. My view is that two coins even at the same grade level are not equal. You express a greater concern for gradeflation and we should all have and share that concern.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
I could care less.
Considering how lucrative the business is for him he could be doing this for decades even from a nursing home. Look how long certain Supreme Court justices have served.
In 1964 the 50d nickel was the craze, now it’s CAC - sooner or later it will c it’s day.
Btw I have a CAC coin would love move - better hurry / it might skyrocket if somebody else takes over lol.
What happens when some of these ultimately go bad in the holder - reaction with atmosphere?
IMHO, the CAC label is all about JA, and the preference the market has manifestly developed for, and come to trust in the integrity of, his opinion.
It is not always true that a CAC sticker means original surfaces. Some old gold that has been cleaned in the past carries CAC stickers, presumably because JA deems those specimens market acceptable as they are. Other admired folks in the field may turn out to be more tolerant of FBLs and CAM/DCAMS than JA sometimes is.
The bottom line is that any successor's opinion is necessarily going to be different in some respects than JA's, and that any subsequent stickers are therefore going to mean something different as well. The current CAC sticker ultimately means that JA has endorsed the coin according to his standards, and the market alone has and will decide whether or not that counts for something.
We've certainly had endorsements of that sort before. Heritage used to bill individual coins as Jim Halperin specials. Eagle Eye stickers choice Indian Heads. The market has determined the value of these endorsements as well. And like CAC, the worth of such endorsements would clearly be affected were Jim or Rick no longer involved in the endorsement decisions..
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
I can't imagine how JA must feel to read all of these threads about his legacy "post JA." I think I would find that a bit unnerving and unsettling if it were me. I wonder if this is how the Queen of the UK feels. At least it is obvious who her successor will be.
Not true:
JA should have already hired his successor by now to ensure a smooth transition!
And that is EXACTLY the ...danger.
I fully agree.
Sadly.
Nothing against JA, but do you people REALLY believe that JA is the ONLY person that can accurately grade coins....I don't.
I think it is a little unnerving that the whole collecting community lays all their trust in one man! I surely don't. This hobby is bigger than one man.
Again...nothing against JA.
Think how JA would feel if (Prince) Charles were his successor, with Camilla as backup. CaC stickers would still work. But.....
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
Bill Jones Jr??
Nothing against JA, but do you people REALLY believe that JA is the ONLY person that can accurately grade coins....I don't.
I think it is a little unnerving that the whole collecting community lays all their trust in one man! I surely don't. This hobby is bigger than one man.
It is not just the fact that JA knows how to grade. Think about what he has done. I was at major gold auction years ago. Ton of doctored gold was in it. I barked and got yelled at by a major grading service. But the major gold dealer sitting next to me shrugged his shoulders and said just don't buy those coins. You know some one will. Besides his tremendous abilities, what JA has is the guts to stand up to the real problem creators. No one else would because they all want their grades.
He has quietly earned kudos from smaller suffering dealers who do care but are afraid to speak up. There is absolutely NO question the market fully accepts his wisdom, you see it every day in the prices CAC coins bring. he very much does deserve to be the most powerful figure. With out CAC I assure you, ALL coins would be worth less today.
So yes he IS the lone wolf doing what others are too chicken too. That is why 1000% back him and promote CAC every day. Anyone who thinks he is a negative to the market is plain crazy.
My focus is what will happen to CAC coins that JA did sticker
Three flags on the above post? Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
I believe as you do they would increase in value.
Your obsession with this man is frightening and unhealthy. I value your opinions on coins and the market in general. I think you would do best to stick to that.
She can give her opinion any way she wants, since she owns that opinion, not you. Also, who are you to dictate who's opinion is correct?
OK guys. There are three flagsoin this post. WHY?
If I were a Mod, there is nothing in that post that is deserving a flag. I call one member here Mr. Bill on occasion to make my point. What is your point? **Please state the reason for your flags IN PUBLIC or remove them. I've never seen a bigger bunch of ...
As to the OP's question, ANYONE with money and a solid reputation can start a sticker company as CAC. I'll bet Laura could do it. Rick did it long before CAC. Remember JA spun off from DH to establish NGC. Someone at CAC could possibly try the same thing while CAC is still around. The best product is going to sell itself over time. There are two top grading services now. One day there could be two top sticker services. There are plenty of errors to fix!
...and here is one nightmare for all of you to consider. You better pray that someone does not begin to sticker TRUE UNC COINS with NO TRACE OF WEAR as was almost done in 1989.
That was at a time before a majority of AU's became considered MS!
What opinion are you speaking about? I never said anything about her opinion other than I value it. Her obsession with Bill is what I was commenting on and I stand by it 100%.
They don't, and it is.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
You're viewing her post in isolation. She has a history of outright attacking Bill presumably because of his stance on CAC and has hurled a number of insults towards him and other members. I saw her use of "Bill Jones Jr." as a diminutive and a continuation of her normal bluster. Someone can correct me if that was not her intent.
Giving opinions is fine. Attacking other members is not. Why is she any more entitled to state her opinion than @ironmanl63 entitled to state his?
Who on Earth would ever believe that? I don't think anyone on here does, and I have no idea why you would suggest it is the case.
@specialist
No one questions your success as a coin dealer, and it is always great to have someone else's perspective especially for someone who trades a lot of coins that do not trade frequently; however, can we leave the in fighting behind? Please? Holding grudges gets you nowhere in life and being a hothead (I would know because I was like that at one point in my life) only leads to stress that can have detrimental effects on your cardiovascular health. Given your other comments about your health, I certainly hope this to not be the case with you. When you are calm, you tend to make your message more effectively.
PS I'll disagee with is point although I see what you are trying to say: "So yes he IS the lone wolf doing what others are too chicken too."
I'll remind you that there are folks on this forum who were protecting the numismatic comunity AS LONE WOLVES way before anyone heard of ...never mind.
I took his statement as hyperbole as some do act as if a coin is automatically a problem coin without a sticker. A 64- should not be rated or treated lower than a solid 63 assuming everything else (including eye appeal) is constant. The reality is that the market does just that in many cases as many collectors wouldn't even bother looking at the 64. I think that is his point.
People seem to forget that a stickered coin means that JA / CAC is willing to buy it. Period. JA is respected in the business as an all around knowledgeable numismatist and a class act. There aren't many others about whom we can have a consensus about both of these traits. I can think of two or maybe three people.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
"People seem to forget that a stickered coin means that JA / CAC is willing to buy it. "
This is a very important point, and certainly influences my opinion of CAC stickers in general.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
EXCELLENT POINT!
What about an imaginary "ASG" sticker service. Similar to the old PCI Signature Service, where experts in each series graded the coins. Anyway, things are good as they are because the TPGS's have guarantees and JA will buy the CAC coins.
I was wondering when anyone would get to the salient point that there is an economic connection to the sticker in the form of a buy guarantee. With the guarantee gone the value of the guaranteed coin would logically be affected.
You don't call this a personal attack?
This is not enforcing your view of what she should do? Who are you to tell anyone what they should do?
I was not talking to you. Why do you need to comment on matters not pertaining to you?
I agree I should not have used that language. I will edit the post.
Just a helpful tip. I guarantee you I am not the only person put off by her constant attacks on Bill.
I meant to quote this post.
This is not enforcing your view of what she should do? Who are you to tell anyone what they should do?
My friend isn't that what you are doing right now!
I like Bill a great deal. Bill has also flat out attacked these folks, and CAC. Sometimes unjustly so.