The thing I know for sure about the gold market is I don't know a thing about the gold market. I will say the dollar is quite strong these days. I think all the way around things are gonna get better .
The bitterness of "Poor Quality" is remembered long after the sweetness of low price is forgotten.
In 1981 gold was over $800 oz. It has not kept up with inflation from a long term standpoint. The only time I owned much gold was 2009 - 2009. It went to close to $2,500 on the spot and I was out when it settled to $2,400 as it looked like the economy was not going to crater. I do think gold coins where the numismatic value is far above the price of gold are better to own. Low pop and higher grade pieces have done pretty well over the last 25 years and I doubt it will change. When the proposed tax cuts are passed it will push the stock market higher and put some pressure on skilled wage costs. Inflation is still low but this can change and I feel if you want bullion gold this would be the time to start buying it in increments. Rates are going to be rising but I doubt it will be a run away situation. That being said I feel it will bold rare for the rare coin market. The recent rise in the market has increased shareholder wealth by $2.8 trillion and if we get a decent business friendly tax code investors will be in much better shape. Some may disagree but it takes a while from eight years of complete fiscal mismanagement and economic stagnation to wear off.
@ricko said:
The golden roller coaster...The one thing I can say with confidence... we have not yet seen the low or high for this year...... Cheers, RickO
And it continued to climb as the DOW and NASDQ went down today.
Still hugging $1250 as we approach mid April. Based on the posted price points over the last several months as memorialized in this thread anyone ready to project: up, dip, or continued flat line ahead for the near future?
@northcoin said:
Gold
$1,255.50 (+2.20)
04-11 2:22 AM EDT
Still hugging $1250 as we approach mid April. Based on the posted price points over the last several months as memorialized in this thread anyone ready to project: up, dip, or continued flat line ahead for the near future?
Up due to the "crazy fat kid" through April.
April 15th is The birthday of Kim Il Sung (founder of Nk)
April 25 is the anniversary of their military.
Either one of these dates could be the next big nuclear/middle test by them and who the hell knows what it can spark.
Don't forget 4/23, the first round of voting in the French election.
If LePen has a strong showing, then I'm confident that will make gold go higher. That would create further uncertainty for France, the EU and other nations...
Headed back up over $1300 after having approached $1350 earlier in the month and then slipped just below $1300 in the last week. Interesting to compare to where gold was priced four months ago as noted in the most recent post above.
Gold is exactly where it was in June of 2013. What a horrible speculative investment at this time. If someone had invested 20,000$ in gold back then they would have had the same investment with no return 4 1/2 years later approximately.
Thank goodness I stuck with stocks........
And bullets........
All it does is price common gold coins out of the range of collector who might be interested in delving into the multitudes of undiscovered varieties. A $400 bullion price might aid the hobby.
I prefer nice slabbed gold coins can get close or fairly close to melt. Beyond that no interest. I do like nice vintage PCGS Walkers, Commems, Dollars too.
I have done booming business with slabbed Franks, MWS, MWG. At shows in terms of being competitive w other sellers I am gonna kick their rear end - material discounted vs TPG PG, many items at cost or bid plus 10 pct.
Does not encourage collectors of gold coins. High gold bullion prices simply discourage interest because of the price. (The absence of good reference material is also a major problem.)
@air4mdc said:
Gold is exactly where it was in June of 2013. What a horrible speculative investment at this time. If someone had invested 20,000$ in gold back then they would have had the same investment with no return 4 1/2 years later approximately.
Thank goodness I stuck with stocks........
And bullets........
Good thing you didn't own the stock market from 1929-1954, or 1966-1982, or 2000-2011. What a horrible, speculative investment where you can have no gain for periods of 25, 16, or 11 yrs at a time. When is the next 11 or 16 year period due? In the end....all markets are speculative and cyclical. What was so "wrong" about owning gold or silver from 1969-1980 or 2000-2011....both very nice 11 yr periods of 7X to 23X gains for gold. Gold should have a nice run from sometime this year to the end of 2019. You'll know it's here when $1366 is taken out and held the next time around.
Note, it's also true that gold doesn't have the luxury of kicking out it's losers from the Dow, S&P500, NAZ100. Gold has to remain with what it has...no changes allowed. And while major corporations (and governments) can buy the stock market (and their own stocks via buy backs) to boost prices with created digi-bucks and "imaginary" over-the-counter derivative's contracts, the gold miners have to sell their product into the market and move on. They can't print money and buy their gold back....lol.
Gold and Silver on way up! yay! Numismatic Coins - bids have stalled. Classic Commems no upward movement and of course recent slip in Dollar Market. There has been a massive liquidation of numismatic coins for sometime, declining pop of collectors.
I love vintage coins but only a buyer at my price which is south of Bid lol. Those who bought Gold near melt the last few months will clean up. I have retailed many vintage coins from my online store there certainly is a demand for these but not at the rate I would like to see.
I keep thinking classic commems SHOULD garner some interest.
But then I reflect on the complete ignorance of kids re: interest in history.
I doubt that 1 out of 1,000 kids under 25 could even identify the name, "Daniel Boone."
Applying this same pessimism to regular coinage, I fight the urge to divest of coins due to lack of any appreciation by the younger generation.
But then I rethink it all and am now thinking seriously of DOUBLING DOWN on coins if only to teach them that they SHOULD have paid some attention to something other than their phones.
Meandering here, but I think it will be the same for gold. People have been so lulled into false confidence in ...stocks... that ANY public interest in metals could launch a skyrocket.
@coinpalice said:
gold had resistance at 1,345 and broke it, clear path to 1,400 now
$1345 wasn't the resistance point. It's $1366 which represents gold's 89 month moving average. The 89 mma has to be exceeded and held for a month. It's been tagged 3X in the past 2 yrs....usually takes 3-5 tags to get through.
Gold's Fibonacci monthly moving averages (21,34,55,89,144) have ruled gold's behavior for the past 7 years. They are nearly at full bullish alignment, only needing the 21 and 34 mma to swap places (currently $5 apart). The 89 mma has been key resistance now for about 2 yrs - it's what stopped the 2016 rally and the 2017 rallies. It's the only Fib left standing as resistance....then clear day light above. Plot those 5 Fib mma's on a 10-20 yr spot gold chart (like Netdania offers free) and you'll see the stair-stepping behavior of these Fibs. Its a worthy exercise.
For extra credit look at gold's 21 month cycles starting at the 1999 peak. Every 21 months (give or take an occasional 18-20 short cycle or 22 month long one) gold hit an important peak on the way to $1920 in Sept 2011. Best I can tell the next 42 months during 2012-2015 were all corrective and resulted in a secondary bottom last year. If the 21 month "thing" continues, then the next 21 month count projects to late Sept (figure June-October to cover 18-22). I "think" it will be a peak since gold has been coiling higher since Dec 2015. Doesn't have to be though. And the next 21 months after that is June 2020.
Martin Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model (google it) has also been tracking gold very well for the past 20+ years. When the ECM heads towards a major low every 8.6 yrs, gold has for the most part done well. The next major low is due January 2020. So the next 20-26 months should be generally challenging for the stock market (volatile?) and supportive of precious metals (link to ECM chart below). If nothing else it's an interesting model/theory. It's done very well identifying major tops/bottoms in stocks.
I agree the base of collectors of gold hasn't been expanding. A strong rise in gold prices, however, seems likely to bring in non-numismatic types. We certainly saw that in the 1980s, when generic gold saints were attracting astounding prices from "investors" (remember Blanchard?)
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
@air4mdc said:
Gold is exactly where it was in June of 2013. What a horrible speculative investment at this time. If someone had invested 20,000$ in gold back then they would have had the same investment with no return 4 1/2 years later approximately.
Thank goodness I stuck with stocks........
And bullets........
Good thing you didn't own the stock market from 1929-1954, or 1966-1982, or 2000-2011. What a horrible, speculative investment where you can have no gain for periods of 25, 16, or 11 yrs at a time. When is the next 11 or 16 year period due? In the end....all markets are speculative and cyclical. What was so "wrong" about owning gold or silver from 1969-1980 or 2000-2011....both very nice 11 yr periods of 7X to 23X gains for gold. Gold should have a nice run from sometime this year to the end of 2019. You'll know it's here when $1366 is taken out and held the next time around.
Note, it's also true that gold doesn't have the luxury of kicking out it's losers from the Dow, S&P500, NAZ100. Gold has to remain with what it has...no changes allowed. And while major corporations (and governments) can buy the stock market (and their own stocks via buy backs) to boost prices with created digi-bucks and "imaginary" over-the-counter derivative's contracts, the gold miners have to sell their product into the market and move on. They can't print money and buy their gold back....lol.
I was too young too own anything from 29-54 and 66-82......but I did own stocks from 2000-2011. I have been in the market since 1883. I like gold and it’s nice to have on the side but you still can’t beat money. And my portfolio reflects a very smart investment in the stock market over all the years.
What about all the the people that purchased gold at 1300+ when it headed to 2000$.? There are quite a few buyers sitting on some gold until it heads north again. I wish I had all the answers I wouldn’t be working right now.
@coinpalice said:
gold had resistance at 1,345 and broke it, clear path to 1,400 now
$1345 wasn't the resistance point. It's $1366 which represents gold's 89 month moving average. The 89 mma has to be exceeded and held for a month. It's been tagged 3X in the past 2 yrs....usually takes 3-5 tags to get through.
Gold's Fibonacci monthly moving averages (21,34,55,89,144) have ruled gold's behavior for the past 7 years. They are nearly at full bullish alignment, only needing the 21 and 34 mma to swap places (currently $5 apart). The 89 mma has been key resistance now for about 2 yrs - it's what stopped the 2016 rally and the 2017 rallies. It's the only Fib left standing as resistance....then clear day light above. Plot those 5 Fib mma's on a 10-20 yr spot gold chart (like Netdania offers free) and you'll see the stair-stepping behavior of these Fibs. Its a worthy exercise.
For extra credit look at gold's 21 month cycles starting at the 1999 peak. Every 21 months (give or take an occasional 18-20 short cycle or 22 month long one) gold hit an important peak on the way to $1920 in Sept 2011. Best I can tell the next 42 months during 2012-2015 were all corrective and resulted in a secondary bottom last year. If the 21 month "thing" continues, then the next 21 month count projects to late Sept (figure June-October to cover 18-22). I "think" it will be a peak since gold has been coiling higher since Dec 2015. Doesn't have to be though. And the next 21 months after that is June 2020.
Martin Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model (google it) has also been tracking gold very well for the past 20+ years. When the ECM heads towards a major low every 8.6 yrs, gold has for the most part done well. The next major low is due January 2020. So the next 20-26 months should be generally challenging for the stock market (volatile?) and supportive of precious metals (link to ECM chart below). If nothing else it's an interesting model/theory. It's done very well identifying major tops/bottoms in stocks.
Way way way over-analyzed. Keep it simple and trade. All youre doing is creating paralysis by analysis. Don't try to turn this into rocket science.
But glad to see you venture back here once in awile...though I'm afraid the other sites you visit have corrupted your thought pattern. Just keep the emotion out.
Comments
The thing I know for sure about the gold market is I don't know a thing about the gold market. I will say the dollar is quite strong these days. I think all the way around things are gonna get better
.
Wow, what happened today - within pennies of $1,250.00 - a new recent high.
Gold
$1,249.20 (+12.30)
02-23 3:04 PM EST
In 1981 gold was over $800 oz. It has not kept up with inflation from a long term standpoint. The only time I owned much gold was 2009 - 2009. It went to close to $2,500 on the spot and I was out when it settled to $2,400 as it looked like the economy was not going to crater. I do think gold coins where the numismatic value is far above the price of gold are better to own. Low pop and higher grade pieces have done pretty well over the last 25 years and I doubt it will change. When the proposed tax cuts are passed it will push the stock market higher and put some pressure on skilled wage costs. Inflation is still low but this can change and I feel if you want bullion gold this would be the time to start buying it in increments. Rates are going to be rising but I doubt it will be a run away situation. That being said I feel it will bold rare for the rare coin market. The recent rise in the market has increased shareholder wealth by $2.8 trillion and if we get a decent business friendly tax code investors will be in much better shape. Some may disagree but it takes a while from eight years of complete fiscal mismanagement and economic stagnation to wear off.
Gold
$1,256.40 (+7.10)
02-24 7:22 AM EST
That didn't take long. Now officially well over $1,250.00.
Gold
$1,257.90 (+8.60)
02-24 3:05 PM EST
Continuing to hold.
Glad I just took up Gold Prospecting
Google Earth is awesome and productive in the search .........
Rounded off to $1,255 looks like the new, even if temporary, bottom.
Gold
$1,256.80 (+7.50)
02-24 4:59 PM EST
Lets keep going up! I want to see silver and gold both head higher
Many members on this forum that now it cannot fit in my signature. Please ask for entire list.
It's been quite a ride so far this year.
After a brief dip, it is now back up over $1,230.
Gold
$1,233.90 (+5.60)
03-20 2:40 AM EDT
The golden roller coaster...The one thing I can say with confidence... we have not yet seen the low or high for this year......
Cheers, RickO
And it continued to climb as the DOW and NASDQ went down today.
Gold
$1,244.50 (+0.50)
03-22 12:34 AM EDT
Weak dollar, strong gold.... Cheers, RickO
Gold
$1,250.40 (+5.80)
03-24 3:30 PM EDT
Made it over the nice round number of $1,250 again.
Market Metric Gold
Gold
$1,254.50 (+0.70)
03-28 12:52 PM EDT
Up up and away?
Gold
$1,255.50 (+2.20)
04-11 2:22 AM EDT
Still hugging $1250 as we approach mid April. Based on the posted price points over the last several months as memorialized in this thread anyone ready to project: up, dip, or continued flat line ahead for the near future?
Up due to the "crazy fat kid" through April.
April 15th is The birthday of Kim Il Sung (founder of Nk)
April 25 is the anniversary of their military.
Either one of these dates could be the next big nuclear/middle test by them and who the hell knows what it can spark.
Gold
$1,273.00 (+19.70)
04-11 4:30 PM EDT
Wow, almost a $25 jump in one day.
Mint prices will probably go up this week.
I've predicted every major turn in the price of gold for decades.
Problem is, I wasn't always right.
I knew it would happen.
Don't forget 4/23, the first round of voting in the French election.
If LePen has a strong showing, then I'm confident that will make gold go higher. That would create further uncertainty for France, the EU and other nations...
Gold
$1,275.00 (+1.40)
04-12 1:29 PM EDT
Still up there.
Gold
$1,283.90 (-1.90)
04-13 3:06 AM EDT
Getting close to $1,300
Gold
$1,252.10
05-21 10:42 PM EDT
Another month and gold hanging on over the $1250 mark.
Gold
$1,260.60 (+0.20)
05-23 3:08 AM EDT
One day later.
Dead cat bounce or beginning of a movement back up close to the $1300 we saw gold approaching in mid April?
Gold
$1,267.60 (+0.70)
05-29 3:42 AM EDT
Start for the week ahead.
Market Metric Gold
Gold
$1,307.70 (+11.00)
09-25 1:43 PM EDT
Headed back up over $1300 after having approached $1350 earlier in the month and then slipped just below $1300 in the last week. Interesting to compare to where gold was priced four months ago as noted in the most recent post above.
Gold is exactly where it was in June of 2013. What a horrible speculative investment at this time. If someone had invested 20,000$ in gold back then they would have had the same investment with no return 4 1/2 years later approximately.
Thank goodness I stuck with stocks........
And bullets........
No; does not help.
All it does is price common gold coins out of the range of collector who might be interested in delving into the multitudes of undiscovered varieties. A $400 bullion price might aid the hobby.
I prefer nice slabbed gold coins can get close or fairly close to melt. Beyond that no interest. I do like nice vintage PCGS Walkers, Commems, Dollars too.
I have done booming business with slabbed Franks, MWS, MWG. At shows in terms of being competitive w other sellers I am gonna kick their rear end - material discounted vs TPG PG, many items at cost or bid plus 10 pct.
Market Metric Gold
Gold
$1,335.20 (+23.80)
03-21 3:56 PM EDT
While threatening to slip below $1300 this past week, today's jump has gold heading upward once again.
Still trending up
Market Metric Gold
Gold
$1,339.10 (+9.50)
03-22 10:32 PM EDT
Be interesting to see how these tariffs affect the price of gold?
"Uncertainty" usually translates into increased gold prices.
Market Metric Gold
Gold
$1,349.90 (+20.30)
03-23 12:10 PM EDT
And we are already back to the high range of the recent past - threatening to break $1,350.00 once again.
Does not encourage collectors of gold coins. High gold bullion prices simply discourage interest because of the price. (The absence of good reference material is also a major problem.)
Good thing you didn't own the stock market from 1929-1954, or 1966-1982, or 2000-2011. What a horrible, speculative investment where you can have no gain for periods of 25, 16, or 11 yrs at a time. When is the next 11 or 16 year period due? In the end....all markets are speculative and cyclical. What was so "wrong" about owning gold or silver from 1969-1980 or 2000-2011....both very nice 11 yr periods of 7X to 23X gains for gold. Gold should have a nice run from sometime this year to the end of 2019. You'll know it's here when $1366 is taken out and held the next time around.
Note, it's also true that gold doesn't have the luxury of kicking out it's losers from the Dow, S&P500, NAZ100. Gold has to remain with what it has...no changes allowed. And while major corporations (and governments) can buy the stock market (and their own stocks via buy backs) to boost prices with created digi-bucks and "imaginary" over-the-counter derivative's contracts, the gold miners have to sell their product into the market and move on. They can't print money and buy their gold back....lol.
Well, when the Chinese retaliate by dumping US Treasury bonds,
I think it will be pretty significant.
gold had resistance at 1,345 and broke it, clear path to 1,400 now
Gold and Silver on way up! yay! Numismatic Coins - bids have stalled. Classic Commems no upward movement and of course recent slip in Dollar Market. There has been a massive liquidation of numismatic coins for sometime, declining pop of collectors.
I love vintage coins but only a buyer at my price which is south of Bid lol. Those who bought Gold near melt the last few months will clean up. I have retailed many vintage coins from my online store there certainly is a demand for these but not at the rate I would like to see.
I keep thinking classic commems SHOULD garner some interest.
But then I reflect on the complete ignorance of kids re: interest in history.
I doubt that 1 out of 1,000 kids under 25 could even identify the name, "Daniel Boone."
Applying this same pessimism to regular coinage, I fight the urge to divest of coins due to lack of any appreciation by the younger generation.
But then I rethink it all and am now thinking seriously of DOUBLING DOWN on coins if only to teach them that they SHOULD have paid some attention to something other than their phones.
Meandering here, but I think it will be the same for gold. People have been so lulled into false confidence in ...stocks... that ANY public interest in metals could launch a skyrocket.
$1345 wasn't the resistance point. It's $1366 which represents gold's 89 month moving average. The 89 mma has to be exceeded and held for a month. It's been tagged 3X in the past 2 yrs....usually takes 3-5 tags to get through.
Gold's Fibonacci monthly moving averages (21,34,55,89,144) have ruled gold's behavior for the past 7 years. They are nearly at full bullish alignment, only needing the 21 and 34 mma to swap places (currently $5 apart). The 89 mma has been key resistance now for about 2 yrs - it's what stopped the 2016 rally and the 2017 rallies. It's the only Fib left standing as resistance....then clear day light above. Plot those 5 Fib mma's on a 10-20 yr spot gold chart (like Netdania offers free) and you'll see the stair-stepping behavior of these Fibs. Its a worthy exercise.
For extra credit look at gold's 21 month cycles starting at the 1999 peak. Every 21 months (give or take an occasional 18-20 short cycle or 22 month long one) gold hit an important peak on the way to $1920 in Sept 2011. Best I can tell the next 42 months during 2012-2015 were all corrective and resulted in a secondary bottom last year. If the 21 month "thing" continues, then the next 21 month count projects to late Sept (figure June-October to cover 18-22). I "think" it will be a peak since gold has been coiling higher since Dec 2015. Doesn't have to be though. And the next 21 months after that is June 2020.
Martin Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model (google it) has also been tracking gold very well for the past 20+ years. When the ECM heads towards a major low every 8.6 yrs, gold has for the most part done well. The next major low is due January 2020. So the next 20-26 months should be generally challenging for the stock market (volatile?) and supportive of precious metals (link to ECM chart below). If nothing else it's an interesting model/theory. It's done very well identifying major tops/bottoms in stocks.
https://forecaster-movie.com/fileadmin/user_upload/Downloads/Martin_Armstrong_The_Forcaster_Facts-About-Martin-Armstrong.pdf
I agree the base of collectors of gold hasn't been expanding. A strong rise in gold prices, however, seems likely to bring in non-numismatic types. We certainly saw that in the 1980s, when generic gold saints were attracting astounding prices from "investors" (remember Blanchard?)
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
@roadrunner
Great to see you back posting! You’ve been missed
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I was too young too own anything from 29-54 and 66-82......but I did own stocks from 2000-2011. I have been in the market since 1883. I like gold and it’s nice to have on the side but you still can’t beat money. And my portfolio reflects a very smart investment in the stock market over all the years.
What about all the the people that purchased gold at 1300+ when it headed to 2000$.? There are quite a few buyers sitting on some gold until it heads north again. I wish I had all the answers I wouldn’t be working right now.
Way way way over-analyzed. Keep it simple and trade. All youre doing is creating paralysis by analysis. Don't try to turn this into rocket science.
But glad to see you venture back here once in awile...though I'm afraid the other sites you visit have corrupted your thought pattern. Just keep the emotion out.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Gold
$1,355.70 (+7.90)
03-26 1:29 PM EDT
A new recent high.
If gold is back up more Modern Gold commems headed to the melting pot
Lafayette Grading Set