it seems like prices really are going up, any thoughts ?

privaterarecoincollector · January 2, 2018 11:42AM

Would love to hear some thoughts especially from dealers.

Here is one example that makes me think that:

https://coins.ha.com/itm/early-half-eagles/half-eagles/1795-5-large-eagle-bd-14-high-r6-ms62-pcgs-secure-cac/a/1271-5013.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515

at 220k USD already for a 62+

while the Pogue 64 sold for 282k.

http://www.pcgscoinfacts.com/Coin/Detail/8075

Now you could say the Pogue coin wasnt high end for the grade, I saw it in person, but this 62+ doesnt look very high end either.

Is there a tendency for much higher prices in 2018 for high end coins or are there just a few exceptions ?

BillJones · January 2, 2018 11:53AM

The prices have never come down for the coins on my list.

It's hard to measure the trend of the market based upon sales of high priced material. Each auction can have different players.

I still think that the lower end of the market is weak. The economy is improving, but it all depends about how many potential coin collectors there out there. Most of us are getting old and need new replacements.

ricko · January 2, 2018 1:30PM

The market has strong niches and weak ones.... Taken as a whole, the market seems level... Perhaps 2018 will begin an upward trend. Based on prices of items that interest me, I never really saw a 'down market'. I am sure some dealers have, but that is likely due to the area of coins they do most business in. Cheers, RickO

Gazes · January 2, 2018 1:43PM

Coins that are all there---Condition Census (actually rare), original, PCGS and CAC seem to go for well above price guide

earlyAurum · January 2, 2018 2:29PM

@privaterarecoincollector - I noticed that $5 1795 and thought the same. Also, there is an 1863 and and 1864 proof quarter eagles that are already bid up past previous recorded prices. They are the n the same auction as the 1795. Just a few data points but I feel you are right.

CharlotteDude · January 2, 2018 4:20PM

I can say that the coins I like & pursue (early and southern mint HEs) that are all there for the grade haven't come cheap since 2005/2006. I've always had to "pay up" for quality, as I would expect. If you try to cut corners and buy coins like these on the cheap, you'll usually find disappointment when it comes time to sell.

CCGGG · January 2, 2018 4:32PM

I look at any falling prices as buying opportunities. Of course I don't want the market to go down and stay down but I'm a collector and not an investor in coins so if prices drop for a year or so, I'm buying.

davewesen · January 2, 2018 4:52PM

maybe they are going up for coins worth $100K +

Walkerguy21D · January 2, 2018 6:00PM

I don't track the deep end of the pool, but even the problem early date large cents in the Heritage auctions continue to do pretty well.

Coinstartled · January 2, 2018 6:12PM

Prices at the least appear to have stabilized in the areas I track.

specialist · January 2, 2018 7:11PM

for better nice coins, prices are going up. Check the auctions

SurfinxHI · January 2, 2018 7:53PM

I think prices for Morgan and Peace dollars are soft....very soft. Am hoping they do more than stabilize in the coming year.

It’s funny.....when I first got reinterested in coins, a 63 common Morgan or Peace dollar was almost worth grading fees.....now, only if you send it in bulk.....

Washingtoniana · January 2, 2018 8:11PM

the only way any high end coin will go down in price in 2018 is for Bill to remove it from his list

oldgoldlover · January 2, 2018 9:21PM

Rare U.S. gold coins in AU or better if any remain uncirculated.

mannie gray · January 2, 2018 9:29PM

I have noticed my sales increasing lately.
I'm up nearly 60 percent in Dec. vs. last year, and it's hard to restock at levels I have been accustomed to.
So from my little corner of the numismatic world, things are looking up.
It's weird but it's true (at least from my experience) that when prices start to rise it's much easier to sell.
When coins are cheap, no one wants them, afraid they haven't bottomed out...but then the buyers will eagerly buy into a rising market.

Justacommeman · January 2, 2018 9:33PM

@mannie gray said:
I have noticed my sales increasing lately.
I'm up nearly 60 percent in Dec. vs. last year, and it's hard to restock at levels I have been accustomed to.
So from my little corner of the numismatic world, things are looking up.
It's weird but it's true (at least from my experience) that when prices start to rise it's much easier to sell.
When coins are cheap, no one wants them, afraid they haven't bottomed out...but then the buyers will eagerly buy into a rising market.

Human nature rears its ugly head

Mark

Paradisefound · January 2, 2018 11:02PM

Out my league to render any opinion
I rather go spear fishing...

savitale · January 4, 2018 4:35PM

For some reason, the coins I want to buy have gone up steadily in price and the coins I want to sell have gone down.

Zoins · January 4, 2018 8:23PM

@savitale said:
For some reason, the coins I want to buy have gone up steadily in price and the coins I want to sell have gone down.

Tastes are converging?

BobSav · January 5, 2018 6:28AM

@specialist said:
for better nice coins, prices are going up. Check the auctions

So is the stock market, that doesn't mean if you invest today you see any long term profit.
Bob

OldIndianNutKase · January 5, 2018 9:31AM

The Duckor halves in the Platinum session sold for a total of $1,201,500 vs. PCGS Guide total of $932,500, a 29% increase. So, I would say that the market is very strong at the top end. But I think it is still soft at the low end.

OINK

Ablinky · January 5, 2018 9:45AM

@OldIndianNutKase said:
The Duckor halves in the Platinum session sold for a total of $1,201,500 vs. PCGS Guide total of $932,500, a 29% increase. So, I would say that the market is very strong at the top end. But I think it is still soft at the low end.

OINK

As to be expected, quality sells.

Unknown · January 5, 2018 10:19AM

This content has been removed.

crazyhounddog · January 5, 2018 11:15AM

I have a feeling that 2018 is going to be a great year for coins. With the economy doing pretty damn good with more spending money for a lot of folks = gains.
Of course this is just my opinion.

ms70 · January 5, 2018 11:20AM

I have no doubt it's the president's policies that have stimulated everything financial.

BuffaloIronTail · January 5, 2018 4:52PM

Some auction coins have been pretty flat, with some not selling due to reserve. But for the most part I welcome the upward trend.

It bodes well for the Hobby.

Pete

logger7 · January 5, 2018 5:32PM

I'll look to the high end reports from Legend, Coin World, singing the tunes "Happy times are here again" and "We're in the money". For really rare, nice, no problem cac coins it should be a banner year.

mrearlygold · January 5, 2018 9:53PM

I've been contacted by clients who I haven't heard from in a couple of cases in more than a couple of years and all are doing something , mostly buying but also selling stuff, to finance larger purchases. I think it's looking like 2018 is going to be a good year.

wondercoin · January 5, 2018 11:58PM

Not everything did wonderful. The 1932-D quarter grading PCGS-MS66 (the original pop 1 coin and the pop is only 2 to this day) that last sold at $143,000 in the Stacks sale a decade or two ago hammered at $62,000 this week. That was ugly to witness.

Wondercoin.

privaterarecoincollector · January 6, 2018 12:16AM

@wondercoin said:
Not everything did wonderful. The 1932-D quarter grading PCGS-MS66 (the original pop 1 coin and the pop is only 2 to this day) that last sold at $143,000 in the Stacks sale a decade or two ago hammered at $62,000 this week. That was ugly to witness.

Wondercoin.

wow that one sold cheap !
Also the 20 USD pioneer gold NGC 64 did not sell, sold for 211k in 2014, 164k in 2015 and now unsold at 144k asking reserve all in.

privaterarecoincollector · January 6, 2018 12:17AM

@mrearlygold said:
I've been contacted by clients who I haven't heard from in a couple of cases in more than a couple of years and all are doing something , mostly buying but also selling stuff, to finance larger purchases. I think it's looking like 2018 is going to be a good year.

that should be a good indication for an upwards market.

privaterarecoincollector · January 6, 2018 12:20AM

I personally was shocked over the last 2 years for how cheap some of the Pogue coins sold, to me a PCGS 65 Flowing Hair Dollar was always a 700k USD coin, in theory, as I never saw one in 15 years ! And they sold there for 230k to 350k mostly. I was the underbidder in 2014 for the NGC 65 at heritage that sold for 750k USD, and it didnt even cross ! At least these times seem to be over.

keets · January 6, 2018 3:38AM

It's weird but it's true (at least from my experience) that when prices start to rise it's much easier to sell.
When coins are cheap, no one wants them

this is a "half empty or half full" statement, suggesting to me that prices go up BECAUSE coins are selling and that the reason coins are cheap is BECAUSE no one wants them. it strikes me as a simple example of supply-and-demand capitalism dynamics at work.

overall, it is probably good that everyone seems optimistic after five days that 2018 is going to be good, but all I hear is dealers wanting to sell talking. seriously, if you are a collector who wants to buy why in the hell would you get excited because you might have to pay more for coins?

that's crazy talk.

jmlanzaf · January 6, 2018 4:42AM

The high end market is indicative of nothing. The ultra rare coin market is indicative of nothing. When you are talking 5 figure coins, the presence or absence of a SINGLE additional bidder can change the hammer price significantly.

That said, I think if one looks at the mid range market (3 or 4 figure coins), the prices are more solid than they were last spring.

I really haven't seen any strengthening of the bottom end of the market.

Gazes · January 6, 2018 5:01AM

@jmlanzaf said:
The high end market is indicative of nothing. The ultra rare coin market is indicative of nothing. When you are talking 5 figure coins, the presence or absence of a SINGLE additional bidder can change the hammer price significantly.

That said, I think if one looks at the mid range market (3 or 4 figure coins), the prices are more solid than they were last spring.

I really haven't seen any strengthening of the bottom end of the market.

Always smart to check to see if there are multiple bidders on these coins---I am finding many 5 figure coins have multiple bidders (at least on coins that interest me) indicating it is not just one additional bidder raising the price.

jmlanzaf · January 6, 2018 5:07AM

@Gazes said:

@jmlanzaf said:
The high end market is indicative of nothing. The ultra rare coin market is indicative of nothing. When you are talking 5 figure coins, the presence or absence of a SINGLE additional bidder can change the hammer price significantly.

That said, I think if one looks at the mid range market (3 or 4 figure coins), the prices are more solid than they were last spring.

I really haven't seen any strengthening of the bottom end of the market.

Always smart to check to see if there are multiple bidders on these coins---I am finding many 5 figure coins have multiple bidders (at least on coins that interest me) indicating it is not just one additional bidder raising the price.

I'm sure there are 10 bidders. The point is that the presence or absence of 1 additional bidder moves the price significantly because of the increments at the top end. On $100k coin, if you remove the underbidder, you are down to $90k right off the bat. And look at the last few bids, are they going back and forth between 5 bidders or just 2? If the last 5 bids were between 2 bidders, remove 1 and your $100k coin sells for $60k.

I always tell the story of Una the Lion. A rare coin with mintage around 100. There was a decade (90s) when none hit the market. UK collectors were lined up when one finally hit the market: it sold for $30k . The next year another hit the market and sold for $22k. A couple years later, a 3rd one came out and sold for $18k. Why? Because as one bidder dropped out each time, they stopped pushing the price for the others.

jmlanzaf · January 6, 2018 5:13AM

@Gazes said:

@jmlanzaf said:
The high end market is indicative of nothing. The ultra rare coin market is indicative of nothing. When you are talking 5 figure coins, the presence or absence of a SINGLE additional bidder can change the hammer price significantly.

That said, I think if one looks at the mid range market (3 or 4 figure coins), the prices are more solid than they were last spring.

I really haven't seen any strengthening of the bottom end of the market.

Always smart to check to see if there are multiple bidders on these coins---I am finding many 5 figure coins have multiple bidders (at least on coins that interest me) indicating it is not just one additional bidder raising the price.

I'd also point out that some people, like me, will open the bidding on coins way under what they go for. I've bid on coins that ended up selling for a million bucks. I was out at under $100k and was never a serious bidder. Total number of bidders is deceptive. How many bidders are there when you get NEAR the ultimate hammer price?

Gazes · January 6, 2018 6:30AM

@jmlanzaf said:

@Gazes said:

@jmlanzaf said:
The high end market is indicative of nothing. The ultra rare coin market is indicative of nothing. When you are talking 5 figure coins, the presence or absence of a SINGLE additional bidder can change the hammer price significantly.

That said, I think if one looks at the mid range market (3 or 4 figure coins), the prices are more solid than they were last spring.

I really haven't seen any strengthening of the bottom end of the market.

Always smart to check to see if there are multiple bidders on these coins---I am finding many 5 figure coins have multiple bidders (at least on coins that interest me) indicating it is not just one additional bidder raising the price.

I'd also point out that some people, like me, will open the bidding on coins way under what they go for. I've bid on coins that ended up selling for a million bucks. I was out at under $100k and was never a serious bidder. Total number of bidders is deceptive. How many bidders are there when you get NEAR the ultimate hammer price?

Some sites give you information regarding the bid history that allows you to determine if it is just two bidders bidding up the final price or more. Obviously, the more information you have, the better you can determine the pricing data.

privaterarecoincollector · January 6, 2018 9:06AM

@jmlanzaf said:

@Gazes said:

@jmlanzaf said:
The high end market is indicative of nothing. The ultra rare coin market is indicative of nothing. When you are talking 5 figure coins, the presence or absence of a SINGLE additional bidder can change the hammer price significantly.

That said, I think if one looks at the mid range market (3 or 4 figure coins), the prices are more solid than they were last spring.

I really haven't seen any strengthening of the bottom end of the market.

Always smart to check to see if there are multiple bidders on these coins---I am finding many 5 figure coins have multiple bidders (at least on coins that interest me) indicating it is not just one additional bidder raising the price.

I'm sure there are 10 bidders. The point is that the presence or absence of 1 additional bidder moves the price significantly because of the increments at the top end. On $100k coin, if you remove the underbidder, you are down to $90k right off the bat. And look at the last few bids, are they going back and forth between 5 bidders or just 2? If the last 5 bids were between 2 bidders, remove 1 and your $100k coin sells for $60k.

I always tell the story of Una the Lion. A rare coin with mintage around 100. There was a decade (90s) when none hit the market. UK collectors were lined up when one finally hit the market: it sold for $30k . The next year another hit the market and sold for $22k. A couple years later, a 3rd one came out and sold for $18k. Why? Because as one bidder dropped out each time, they stopped pushing the price for the others.

My learning so far is that auction prices determine the value of a coin quite well, if the coin trades regular like a 1879 FH Stella PR 65 or 1907 HR in MS65, but when it comes to real rarities that sell only every 5, 10 or even 20 years, in many cases the auction prices realized is no indication for the value of a coin, other than that the current owner might not want to sell it for less than he bought it for. I know as a matter of fact that if I would have needed a Chain Cent, the MS 65 RB Chain Cent ex Pogue and Garrett would have brought at least 2 Mio USD instead of 1 Mio USD. The coin sold for 1 Mio but is worth more. Not even I could have bought it for less than 2 Mio at the same auction. At the same time all the half eagles sold for less than what they are or should be worth because there were no collectors out there collecting half eagles by date, but as soon as this changes, prices will go up a lot and they already do now.

it seems like prices really are going up, any thoughts ?

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