NN: "Coins generally continue their slide lower".....Do you agree?
Goldbully
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Coins generally continue their slide lower
by Richard Giedroyc
The value of most coins once again is disappointing, as all but very specialized areas of collecting declined in value as silver went below $16 an ounce. Gold did nothing, even as the dollar dipped in value against the Japanese yen. The price of First Spouse gold coins has not been adjusted recently, as only 75 trades were reported online as of Dec. 1 as compared to 120 one month earlier (and 60 two months earlier).
Better-date gold and silver American Eagle coins were flat lined, while the price declined on the more common material. Likewise, there has been no movement in scarcer commemorative coins for months, while the more common material continues to follow the declining spot price of their metal content.
Coin dealers are hesitant to sell much of their inventory due to the loss they would take, yet the value of much of that inventory continues to decline.
Few of the better coins are appreciating in value. Even among the scarce to rare coins, this scarcity being due to date or condition, the coins are primarily of interest to bargain hunters. This is unfortunate, since should the market suddenly rebound as it did in 2011, this will result in missed opportunities.
The market continues to be a bargain basement for dedicated collectors, while speculators remain in the more attractive equity markets. The bravest ones are buying Bitcoin, but that is very risky. It would be better if anyone with current Bitcoin profits moves them into rare coins.
http://www.numismaticnews.net/article/coins-generally-continue-slide-lower
Comments
Well that is depressing.... Not being a dealer, I have only read of a slow market - and hardly to this extent, though it may well be true. Certainly I have not seen it in pricing of any coins I am interested in.... perhaps it is only obvious to dealers. I will continue to watch for bargains... a slow market usually bodes well for buyers. Cheers, RickO
Not sure if this is a depressing sign or one that is encouraging. Much of the decline seems to be in modern NCLT. That might lead to fewer buyers of such "Mint-made delicacies," and help stabilize retail prices. Declines might also encourage collectors to move toward historically interesting coins, especially gold varieties which seem to be greatly under appreciated.
Coin dealers are hesitant to sell much of their inventory due to the loss they would take, yet the value of much of that inventory continues to decline.
they should swallow hard and sell, then buy silver.
No, the market is not a bargain basement. One reason why prices has declined is gradeflation. Typically, the MS 65 Barber Half of fifteen years ago is not the MS 65 Barber Half of today, and everyone knows it.
Many out there are trying to get full retail for the above coins, and a savvy dealer or collector passes on them.
Then you have the attractive coins for the grade. Maybe they have a plus, sticker or star on their holders. Many dealers want a premium for these coins that is often halfway or more toward the price of the next grade up. Many dealers and collectors don't think it is wise to pay such a premium for these coins. Will they upgrade? I don't want to find out, as this can involve multiple trips to the TPGs and there are no guarantees.
Finally, you have a nice type coin that you bought fifteen years ago and are thinking of selling it. You know that you need to send it to the TPG again, and if it doesn't have a sticker, send it to CAC. If it upgrades, it's back to CAC again.
It makes me want to pass on pretty much everything, unless it is a coin which speaks to me, and I don't see many of these.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
I agree. Prices seem to decline when same grade prices are compared from one point in time to another.
But with grafeflation, that comparison doesn’t accurately reflect reality.
I think ordinary, easy-to-find-nice coins will continue weaker, especially the ugly and other problem examples.
Truly rare coins, and Awesome other coins, might be okay..
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Any serious size coin dealer hedges so I think that the slow up is temporary and I would not be running to dump anything just yet. patience seems to have been lost in our current instant results oriented times. I like coins and to me it is a hobby. This hobby happens to retain some investment value compared to other hobbies. That to me is a bonus. I buy a coin instead of going out to dinner. Think of what I would of ended up with at the END if my hobby was dining out?
@keets a reserve against said inventory would create a tax write off so in a sense unless you are cash poor or need space for 2018 stock, dumping inventory not smart move IMHO.
Best place to buy !
Bronze Associate member
I agree completely that prices have been on a down trend but I also think this is about money. Those who have cash are in the stock market and those who do not aren't dedicating precious dollars to coins at any price.
JMHO, but it is always better to keep the cash flowing and not stagnant. money taken out of old, tired inventory that isn't "working for you" and put to work will eventually be the winner in the end.
Some person's (persons') overconfidence is touching.
These things are hobbies, not investments. Buy them because you enjoy history/ because you enjoy coins as historical artifacts. You gotta pay for your jollies in this fine world, and pleasure is rarely free.
elcontador may have hit it on the head...we have this here 2005-era MS-64 in an MS-65 slab and we want 66 money for it because it's one of the nicer 65's (64's) on the market. So you actually got "grade-flated" twice.
Toned coin dealers/sellers should read that article... Im still seeing toned coins with asking prices that are exorbitant. Toning is a premium paid on the current value of a coin, not some "I want $xxx amount" for this coin...
This is what I think will keep happening.
Successful transactions with: wondercoin, Tetromibi, PerryHall, PlatinumDuck, JohnMaben/Pegasus Coin & Jewelry, CoinFlip, and coinlieutenant.
Seems that the wave of fast money to coins that started several years ago with the monster gold and silver price surge has passed. Combine that with some gradeflation and a nice supply of new material that came to market due to the strong prices and what you have here is a cool down. The fast money - for now - has left the building.
Toned coins have their own unique market. It's a thin one. You have to be able to distinguish between "this is an attractively toned coin," versus "this is a knock your socks off attractively toned coin." Once you've made this distinction, it's a matter of how much someone who wants the coin is willing to pay for it. That's determined by the buyer. If the seller prices it too high, it may grow moss on its north side in his inventory.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
Too many toned coin dealers arent toned coin collectors and dont understand the market. They are clueless when it comes to pricing - too many use the formula "I paid $x amount and I need to make 20% above that so the price is $X + 20%"
Ive seen this all too often with dealers that over pay for toned Peace $. I see them at shows and their moon money asking price for average color. I try to tell them that they are the 3rd or 4th seller and the first two made money. The 3rd broke even and now they the 4th and are left holding the bag with the loss - sometimes they get it, most of the time they dont. They just let coins grow moss...
Lincolns have taken one heck of a hit. Years ago, friends found out selling their memorial sets would lose at least 1/3 of what they paid for them. Today, those same sets would probably not get 50% return.
The article only mentions modern collector bullion coins. Those aren't true rarities. When the mint pumps out so many of them year after year, it's no wonder the price of the "old hat" hot modern coins becomes depressed over time.
With prices decreasing many coins are no longer worth slabbing, i.e generic MS64 pre '21 Morgans.
Submission numbers of these coins have to be decreasing. How will the grading services respond to
continued diminishing submissions as this trend continues?
They have been declining for some time now !!!
Collectors need to tighten their grading standards and become very, very selective about what they buy.
"Ordinary" material, new or old, has a dim future ahead.
There are always modern c*** that the mint churn out year after year & the 70 chasers.
RE: " How will the grading services respond to continued diminishing submissions as this trend continues?"
They will concoct more special labels, historical signatures, and slab varieties. Next will come "regrade specials" where there will be a small discount for having a coin in an older holder "regraded" (really meaning "inflated upgrading"). Also we'll see more add-ons such as videos of your coin, or someone saying a few nice words about your "EF but now MS63" coin. There will also be additional tie-ins to TV and internet sales schmucks who tout every coin as a "great investment and family heirloom."
I could go on but my computer's cynicism filter just kicked in....now I have to buy a vowel.
In a market where prices wouldn’t otherwise rise or fall, gradeflation causes the average price in a grade to fall over time, right?
(grade 65 in this example, and forget pluses)
With gradeflation, the nicest 65’s leave the 65 pool, and move up to 66, and the nicest 64s move to 65 and the quality in the pool of 65s lessens over time. The best move out of the pool and are replaced with lesser quality, and the average prices in the pool decrease.
A downward spiral I’d think.
How much is this part of the problem?
I believe the coin market is in a tug of war with greed holding both ends of the rope.
Dealers want full price or more, collectors want discounts and bargains..
the metal markets are flat and with all the turmoil both real and perceived still wont budge.
Silver is about to close the year at the same price ( more or less ) than it started.
Gold is a slight leader but nowhere near what everybody forecasted or hoped for.
Oh well another year is just around the corner and who know what surprises it will bring
JMHO
Bob.
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I have made far more with bitcoin than coins over the past couple years.