@addicted2ebay said:
I remember kicking myself last spring when I passed on Muffins psa 9 Rose RC for 35k
It hit 90k multiple times last summer
Now one just sold for 40k last night in Heritage
Next one back to 35k ?
yep. and i was already suspect prior to selling it but i put it up for more than twice what i paid for it, thinking it'd never sell.
was a lil gun shy about breaking up my #1 hustle set, but then outta the blue a particular individual from b'ham purchased it and i knew things were gonna get fishy. and they did. fishier than i could even fathom.
but in the latter stages, we have to remember that most of these cards that were reported "sold at record prices" never in fact sold at all.
thus 'returning' to normal is necessarily a correct term either.
crisser wasnt correct and the term a "market correction" isnt correct either.
market and attempted market manipulations are the only correct terms in my book.
This thread is like the seventh meeting of the Tiny Ding Dong Organization. What are you arguing about? None of you know or knew. If you did or do you'd put your money where your mouths are and retire. But you're all still here pretending to know what people who spend six figures on cards think or care about. Just go ahead and start the Baby Bubba Investing Club and pool all of this hot garbage into one thread for the sake of the board.
@1970s said:
I think Muffins hit the nail on the head with the market manipulation that took place.
It was like naked-shorting in reverse. The manipulators had full control of the craziness, and anyone who bought into their madness is now in peril financially.
I sold my '55 Koufax PSA 8 for 20k and my '55 Clemente PSA 7 for 23k. I never had any intention to sell either one but when a bubble forms you will always regret listening to the hype that prices will continue to climb. I just bought back the Koufax and previously bought back the Clemente for a fraction of my selling price. I commented that we were at the top back then but some unfortunate buyers just didn't believe me.
@smallstocks said:
I sold my '55 Koufax PSA 8 for 20k and my '55 Clemente PSA 7 for 23k. I never had any intention to sell either one but when a bubble forms you will always regret listening to the hype that prices will continue to climb. I just bought back the Koufax and previously bought back the Clemente for a fraction of my selling price. I commented that we were at the top back then but some unfortunate buyers just didn't believe me.
Yep I sold a lot and got paid to. Some guys here refuse to believe those prices were real last year but most were.
@smallstocks said:
I sold my '55 Koufax PSA 8 for 20k and my '55 Clemente PSA 7 for 23k. I never had any intention to sell either one but when a bubble forms you will always regret listening to the hype that prices will continue to climb. I just bought back the Koufax and previously bought back the Clemente for a fraction of my selling price. I commented that we were at the top back then but some unfortunate buyers just didn't believe me.
Glad to hear your story and that there were people who did read the writing on the walls instead of buying into all of the hype.
@prgsdw said:
I was happy to land one of the white whales of my collecting sphere, a 1972 Roger Staubach rookie in PSA 9, this week for just over 1/2 the price it sold for at the peak last summer. Hopefully I wasn't too early (still) on it, however, I will not be selling that one for a long, long time. It's the center piece of my Cowboys collection. I just wish I'd get a shot at a 1963 Bob Lilly rookie in PSA 9 before prices start going back in the other direction...
Awesome job. I have picked up at least a half dozen cards in the last 6 months that have been on my want list for steep discounts. Buying quality low pop cards of the greats on this dip should look pretty keen in 1 a year or so.
@Dpeck100 said:
So the real question is was @CrissCriss right about correction? I think so.
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once and a while.
Is it really any surprise to people that the current prices are nowhere near the prices "realized" as a result of the 2016 market manipulation that small group of people were responsible for?
We are still substantially above where we were in 2015. The 1971 Aaron PSA 9 was a $1k card then.
This is so comical. The notion that there aren't people who bought these cards at the prices reported is laughable. Kirk paid for his pool with his PSA 8 Rose sale. I only talk to a few high end collectors and they moved cards at the prices quoted and lots of them. I don't personally own any of them so I can't speak from any personal experience but the price decline is real. I am almost positive that the board member I responded to in a thread about a 55 Clemente that sold for 69k was @70ToppsFanatic and I said I can't imagine not being tempted sell after the card was bought for less than 10k. The response was they were waiting for 100k. I guess I just have to assume it was sold. A correction is a declining market and unless someone is blind they have to see significant pull backs in loads of cards. What's this big deal? Unless someone is dillusional they realize markets move up and down. The super spike collapsed and prices are reverting back to where they were and in some cases even lower. It's not personal it's just reality. I am not taking credit for a call on the way up or a call on the way down. Just stating the obvious. Those trying to act like they saw all this coming are fooling themselves. The vast majority were just excited to see the auction results and did nothing. Markets move in cycles and so inevitably there will be another up move at some point but the harsh reality is there are plenty of buyers who have lost money and won't ever recoup it all.
but most of those cards sold earlier in the "buying group" emersion talk.
towards the end (talking months) there was a ton of stuff and at exorbinant prices that did not.
more sickening however, there were cards that were proclaimed as 'sold' that simply was nothing more than a sham simply to get "data plugged" as a "documented transaction" and to get people talking. these were early on and is what basically helped started this crap.
in the beginning, i stood my ground in thinking that our hobby was finally getting some real appreciation w these prices. similar to how other hobbies took off in recent years and never looked back. primarily talking the classic car and fine art segments.
but then it just got ridiculous. the head scratchers went from scratching to scraping. ultimately, greed and stupidity entered and prevailed.
there were several examples prior but i think there was a koufax 8 that "went" for $180k. goodwin maybe?
then the snowball effect ensued. people consigned/sold cards thinking they have a lot of easy cash to spend on "more cards" but then never got paid for.
it basically turned into an "in-auction-house musical chairs" game but w no real money..."he consigned this, but bought that, but his card didnt get paid for, so hes not gonna pay for his purchase, blah, blah, blah."
but yes, some people didnt end up w a proverbial "chair" and left standing while holding the bag.
then reports of people reneging at just about every auction house, heritage being a big one just added to the clustermuck.
they didnt even attempt in collecting on some major accts because it was basically futile.
but the buying group gimmick was and still is hilarious.
and still dont think that pool set up coulda been done w the rose budget. its too nice to have been done for that price.
If you want to measure the market, the high grade stars and HOFers is not the best gauge. The data points for sales are few, many on here are speaking of single data points rather than a larger group. Take a look at the low to mid-grade stars and HOFers to see how their were some spikes in 2016, but the prices steadily increased and plateaued to a degree. I am looking at the 1954 Hank Aaron RC in PSA 6 for example. You can see two sales for around $5500 in 7/16, then it lowered to normal levels and a few sales in the $4500 range. After that the sales were in the low $3000s to high $2900s up to the current date save for a few outliers. You can see prior to that around 4/15 one could be had for the low $2000s, yet since they have gradually appreciated with the exceptions of a few spikes in prices. The prices appreciating steadily leads to long term stability.
Honest question, if this was all the work of a small buying group manipulating high-grade HOF rookies how does that explain the surge in the entire hobby, from prewar to modern? If you peruse VCP you'll see upticks in just about everything around summer last year and in many instances they haven't dropped off.
I think it’s funny when people talk about stability in the card market when it’s become crystal clear that the bottom has completely fallen out on A LOT of “premium” cards from the 60s and 70s.
Sorry but a lot of people simply got played and the data shows this.
When the population of something is low enough it’s pretty easy to keep the perception of it’s value high ... but as the pop increases people just get bored of shilling and just moved on.
Wasn’t there someone who was building a perfect 1978 set who was paying $1K a common a few years ago? You’re lucky to get $100 for the same card these days.
It’s certainly been fun to watch but the only thing that’s been steady these days has been the general decline in hammer prices.
@mortiz said:
I think it’s funny when people talk about stability in the card market when it’s become crystal clear that the bottom has completely fallen out on A LOT of “premium” cards from the 60s and 70s.
Sorry but a lot of people simply got played and the data shows this.
When the population of something is low enough it’s pretty easy to keep the perception of it’s value high ... but as the pop increases people just get bored of shilling and just moved on.
Wasn’t there someone who was building a perfect 1978 set who was paying $1K a common a few years ago? You’re lucky to get $100 for the same card these days.
It’s certainly been fun to watch but the only thing that’s been steady these days has been the general decline in hammer prices.
This is about the 23rd time you've made the same post just in different language. Do you even collect sportscards? What do you collect? Do you plan to contribute to the board in a positive way or is this just your thing, bashing high grade cards from the 60s and 70s? Because at this point you just seem like a troll. Anytime someone has made a counterpoint to your argument you just rehash this post in a different form.
By your post frequency you obviously have a lot of time on your hands so it would be great if you could contribute in a positive way. Maybe share some of your collection or talk about what you like. But the whole "sky is falling and everyone that bought is an idiot" routine has run its course. I think it's time to retire that bit.
From my own perspective, I have collected vintage cards my whole life. Now that I am a little older and have a son who rekindled my interest, I am able to spend much more than I did in the early days of my youth. I don't necessarily do so BUT having the ability to do so means that if something came along that I really wanted, I might splurge.
My point? The height of baseball card collecting and the sports memorabilia market (arguably) was let's call it 1985-1995. A lot of good modern cards in that span and the vintage stars of yesteryear were still making the rounds at shows and conventions - Willie, Mickey and Duke signing were popular and seemingly happening all over the place. Many of the those collectors - like me - will be returning with renewed interest and disposable income as they get older. Support will come and people who buy an hold will profit considerably. That's my call.
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
I made a killing last year funneling HOF late 60’s cards through PWCC. Believe it or not the PWCC HE designation has paid dividends, almost as much as the heavy push that happened back then.
@secretstash said:
LOL, I just thought this "disagree" was funny...
It's amazing, two posters who hadn't posted in almost 5 months happen to come in and see my post and disagree with it within 10 minutes of me posting it. Me thinks Mortiz didn't think that one entirely through.
@secretstash said:
LOL, I just thought this "disagree" was funny...
It's amazing, two posters who hadn't posted in almost 5 months happen to come in and see my post and disagree with it within 10 minutes of me posting it. Me thinks Mortiz didn't think that one entirely through.
Arthur
To me your post is very rude and condescending. I don’t think you help yourself much by attacking people for having too much time on their hands when you clearly are spending a lot of time here yourself.
@1951WheatiesPremium said:
From my own perspective, I have collected vintage cards my whole life. Now that I am a little older and have a son who rekindled my interest, I am able to spend much more than I did in the early days of my youth. I don't necessarily do so BUT having the ability to do so means that if something came along that I really wanted, I might splurge.
My point? The height of baseball card collecting and the sports memorabilia market (arguably) was let's call it 1985-1995. A lot of good modern cards in that span and the vintage stars of yesteryear were still making the rounds at shows and conventions - Willie, Mickey and Duke signing were popular and seemingly happening all over the place. Many of the those collectors - like me - will be returning with renewed interest and disposable income as they get older. Support will come and people who buy an hold will profit considerably. That's my call.
I think what a lot of people have been pointing out (correctly) is that the market has simply gone down a lot since last year. I listened to what many others said about the bubble bursting and sold off much of my late 60s registry for a huge profit and have also bought back a good portion of it at a nice discount recently.
No reason to think things won’t spike up again but until that happens now is a great time to be a buyer!
I've always found it distasteful of someone to tell me after the fact I bought XYZ stock at 10 and sold it at 50 and bought it back again when it hit.... Same thing with several people jumping in here to boast I sold at the the high and bought back cheaper later. Well, Good for you but to boast after the fact is just in poor taste. Now do you want to hear how long I've been long AAPL?
I have been collecting since 1957 as a hobby. I did not track prices much in those days but it looks to me like the market is up a little since 1967 when the Card Collectors Company mailed me this
Whew! Getting those '52 high numbers as a set would set you back a cool $90. FWIW, that was strong money in 1967! Interesting also, that you could put away 54-57 sets for not much more than the current '66, '67, etc. And they didn't bother to break out Mantle as a single for '52 Topps? An oversight? Really cool look at the hobby past.
So much Sturm und Drang over a moving conversational target that is impossible to hit.
I’ve never understood the instinct to lump all cards into one market, moving exclusively in one direction or another at a given time. As some have posted here, and I think rightly, at any moment some cards can sell for a record high, while others are simultaneously selling for less.
For example, that beautiful 1952 Mantle in PSA 4 just set a record price for the grade. That doesn’t mean all cards or even all PSA 4 ‘52 Mantles are rising. It just means that specimen at that moment sold for that amount— it is a data point unique to that card with those bidders active.
@originalisbest said:
And they didn't bother to break out Mantle as a single for '52 Topps? An oversight? Really cool look at the hobby past.
I think they did actually.
$1.00 for a single or $90 for the high set. So Mantle was $1 for the rookie. I guess the premium was put on the scarcity of the highs and not the individual card.
This raises a question.
I wonder if you could buy cards for $0.05 of #433 Pancho Herrera requesting no "a" errors? lol
@ReggieCleveland said:
Honest question, if this was all the work of a small buying group manipulating high-grade HOF rookies how does that explain the surge in the entire hobby, from prewar to modern? If you peruse VCP you'll see upticks in just about everything around summer last year and in many instances they haven't dropped off.
Arthur
I sold modern PSA 10 rookies during the spike last year and the buying group affected modern as well even if they weren't actively manipulating those cards. I sold a 2004 Contenders Big Ben for close to $3000 through PWCC. I see that the most recent examples sold for half that much.
I think with the high end cards that exhibit strong centering and eye appeal there is going to be a strong market for key rookies. I have seen two examples in the last 5 days of Mantle rookies from 51 and 52, one private and one at auction, both go for record prices and blow away VCP high sales figures by more than 20%.
@ReggieCleveland said:
Honest question, if this was all the work of a small buying group manipulating high-grade HOF rookies how does that explain the surge in the entire hobby, from prewar to modern? If you peruse VCP you'll see upticks in just about everything around summer last year and in many instances they haven't dropped off.
Arthur
short answer, this:
(primarily when the guy sees the dukes looking over the floor and says "lets get in on it".)
the manipulation did occur in several different segments of the sportscards market. obviously the hof rcs, but dont forget the '90 fleer jordan 10s that got up to the thousand buck range. quite a vast amount of games played on various and readily available unopened boxes and cases. it was ridiculous. over the years, i always mentally noted this unopened fleer case marked for $50 at my pos local card shop which had easily accumulated well over an inch of dust. so when the madness ensued, i went and snagged. listed and sold each box for $135 in less than 48 hrs. and to several different individuals. the reason, curiosity. i try not to blurt out too many things that im not educated on or have experienced myself. so w all this buying group/ manipulation talk i wanted to attempt to find out what was really going on. shortly after seeing what happened w that $50 expierence, i posted a few mid-grade and dead centered hof rc that i had literally just picked up. 3 in particular and that stick out was a rose 7. i even started a thread on n54 prior to listing so people could follow and actually thwart potential manipulators (had over 200 watchers most of whom were n54 members) which, under an auction format, hammered at $5400 or $5800, a near record. and paid for. and then a pair 68 ryan's (one in a sgc holder, the other in a psa) that were literally just purchased two weeks prior. since i had my unopened sales, i had my legitmate auction sale and since ryan is my guy, i put two absolute crazy BIN prices bc im not really a seller. both sold within 24 hrs of listing. and each went to the opposite sides of the country, but these stick out in my mind bc dpeck mentioned one of these sales in a thread about how it was just purchased and resold (not recalling if he realized it was my ebay handle or not, maybe he'll chime in if he recalls) but we ended up texting back and forth that night about what was going on and how shocked i was that they had actually sold so quickly after i had just purchased AND at those prices. i mean, even if you arent privy to vcp, it doesnt take a genius to check completed ebay sales.
so with my personal science experiments completed i could confidently laugh at the "buying group" notion. and came to the conclusion that a few different groups of manipulators and dealers sparked the frenzy, kept it alive, then moved on to another card, etc etc ALL WHILE unknowingly showing another set of folks that collect in a completely different seg how easy it was to document these so called "completed sales" and cause another spark in another seg. then rinse, wash, repeat.
all while keeping in mind that there are a ton of john q. public collectors out there that never check or know about these message boards for some of this almost real time information. there are some real good slueths here.
just look how quickly jenny got called out. again. someone made that look easier than dialing 867-5309.
but again, i cant imgaine what is/was going on in the mind of some of these fellows that werent privy to these threads. they've got to asking themselves "what. in. the. world. just. happened?"
as to why the frenzy ensued and so easily sparked and encouragable, im certainly no wizard or finance guru, but id like to think it was the perfect storm.
stocks and bonds werent exactly strong.
real estate was looking better but not great. banks and investors extremely cautious now-a-days. plus, a lot of people had just got burned on that bubble and still had that bad taste lingering in the mouth.
an upcoming presidential election which pretty much makes all of wall street realitively gun shy until the party winner is declared. it really is a "HUUUGE" deal in regards to our economy, govt budgets and regulations. it also sets serious precedence over corporate america, their bottom lines and what they can or cant do and/or get away with.
tax returns coming in.
buzz of the national.
wild wild west. no real legalities, regulation or federal laws to adhere to. just look at all the fraud on ebay that occurs every day in the entire sports memorabilia market+.
even if someone reports 1 fake/stolen card, once that authority fig hears that it's occurred online and over state lines, youll be hard pressed to ever hear any consistently positive results for the victims.
ie, the fake holders deriving outta mehico. been going on for over 10 years now. still zero resolution, so this under the radar, get in, get out method was a smart low risk, high reward maneuver.
nothing of this of precedence had really ever occurred previously or to this degree. similar to the default swap thing.
and probably a big one here. people simply freaking that if this upward trend continues like it is, that they'd might get priced out of that certain card they needed. and on the other end of the spectrum: greed and thoughts of easy money to be made.
trickle down and boiling over effects.
.
.
but to answer your question more thoroughly and on a personal level, i think it was simply the 'herd' effect. a lot of people saw what they thought was legitimately going on and thought they'd turn their hobby into a day-trade side hustle. so a lot of people made money, however a lot of people got burned too. ie tulip mania.
the good news for true collectors is those who are financially able to hold shouldn't really lose in the long term.
10 year effect of a certain marquee hof rookie card:
and for those who thought theyd become a fly-by-night cardboard day trader and used their lines of credits, credit cards or cashed in college tutition /retirement plans learned a really hard lesson.
personally it was just another day for me.
luckily i had all of my marquee basic player sets completed. some several times over. so there was nothing i really 'needed'. as for last summer, actually had a lil burnout on high-end cardboard and switched gears to a huge golf card collection pick up and my centered hof rookie run that has turned out to be and still is a good time to buy. (not pitching, as im just about done there too! )
as for my reg card collection, did manage to have a nice run of good sales mixed w a couple of good purchases. did have 1 purchase that most would consider a bad buy...for now.
in the end, not pissed that i didnt cash in all of my gems. also happy that i didnt get caught up in all that mess.
the one thing im truly happy with and didnt recognize until this scenario was how fortunate i was in always filling the big holes first....for 2 reasons.
first, referring back to that vcp pic above.
as the big purchases were done first, it naturally allowed for more time to pass as i completed the rest of the set. every big purchase seemed like absolute insanity at the time. as time marched on that insanity turned into brilliancy.
the trickle down effect here was that prevented me from being a victim in all of this.
in the end, i just hope no one got too burned though. certainly hope we dont hear any reports that one of good guys jumped outta a high rise window or something.
well. if ya got this far i honestly dont know whether to congratulate ya, just feel sorry for ya or try to sell ya some oceanfront property in arizona. but i do know that this should just about cover my opinion on this matter.
ETA:
after a heated call from legal. i need to amend and attach the following disclaimer:
for legality purposes, the expressed written opinion holds absolutely no value or merit whatsoever nor accredited by any institution of any kind. you have no right of refund on the 3.5 minutes you wasted on actually reading this nonsense. furthermore, author vehemently denies any and all rights of claim on the loss of vision, that migraine you just noticed or will shortly ensue and any/or all instances of carpel tunnel syndrome that will surely arise for actually typing a reply to this post.
finally, should you excercise your right to actually flag this post, a broken or severed clicking finger could and should certainly occur, usually w/i a 7 year time frame, in some freak broken mirror accident solely because you stopped under that open ladder in a humorous and feeble attempt to pick up a busted penny, which was clearly on tails and after your fellow-spousal-mirror carrier strongly encouraged you to pass on (thrice) for a multitude of obvious reasons.
but in the meantime, remember to take care of yourself. and each other.
and as always...thanks for stopping by, san diego.
Yes I totally recall texting back and forth about it.
I will be the first to admit that I thought the move in a lot of the cards was real. I chat on the phone with a guy from NY who has a lot of HOF rookies and he keeps a log of his collection and recent sales and it was incredible how much it had moved up. Our conclusion at the time was that with so many in long term collectors hands there simply wasn't enough supply to meet a fresh waive of collectors returning to the hobby with money. He does a lot of things with athletes and got one in on the Aaron Judge run and the guy made a quick 15k in no time. I don't care how much money you have or make everyone likes profit. The guy thought he was a genius and is eager for another play. The same exact scenario I have to assume happened here so as prices were rising false confidence from prior success was kicking in.
I was at a dinner with a Wall St. economist and fund manager and we got to chatting about my card collection and I said my cards are just child's play and the real stuff goes for big money and are better long term investments then the funds we were discussing. I filled him in on the 52 Topps Mantle and how it was going for 78k in 2010 when I started getting cards graded and was zooming past 250k at the moment and that is just an 8. I also referenced how a 10 had sold for 122k and was a several million dollar card and these over the long run only go up in value. I never expected it to nearly triple in such a brief period of time and before that had thought it had peaked and was due for a consolidation. Even at 400k the card in an 8 has come a long way and if you were looking at a long term price chart it is probably still in a major uptrend after the pullback. He didn't really buy into my logic but I think there are enough people with money and a connection to collectibles and of course desire for bragging rights that many of the marque cards probably will appreciate continuously overtime. Returns aren't linear and in many cases are lumpy so perhaps this will still be true.
This probably was just the perfect storm. Fear of missing out, tons of cash sloshing around from prior success in cards, elevated card prices to trade with, cash on the sidelines, and pursuit of profit mixed in. I think the primary reason I bought into it was I have never participated in anything where you can see such huge percentage gains from either grading or just price appreciation. I get it that spending say $50 and having it turn into $200 doesn't change anyone's life but the same ratio's were happening in the parts of the card market that are really considered marquee collectibles so why shouldn't the big boy toys do the same? Even though many of these high profile cards have come down if you look at them over a longer term period of time they have still done great. A 55 Clemente 8 at even 20k is still up 257% in a six year period of time. That is still pretty awesome.
I consigned several high dollar HOF RC cards during the mania and got paid for all of them. Other than a few outliers who has real evidence that these prices were fake? I remember chuckling at all the folks acting like PWCC sales weren't being paid for especially since that is where I had most of my cards consigned.
The problem though is that the Buyer's Group theory doesn't fit with the activity of prewar cards. Just like the 60s/70s high-grade HOF cards or what ever modern gets cherry picked, a LOT of prewar saw a boost right around the same time, maybe a little earlier (February 2016). The difference is the prewar boosts have held or in many instances have continued to grow.
I realize that 60s/70s HOFers is right in this board's wheelhouse so of course that's going to be the focus of the conversation but the 2016 boost occurred across all eras and sports and was not limited to key or watershed cards. I believe the so-called Buyer's Group occurred on top of a much, much larger tectonic shift in the hobby. For naysayers, it's much easier to cherry pick a handful of examples that fit their narrative and then point to the BG. But anyone that's spent any time on VCP looking at cards from all eras has seen the boost on a much grander scale. They've also seen where it hasn't recessed back.
So while it's fun for a craven few to point to a handful of cards that have dropped in price quite a bit, the larger truth is that there are any, many times more examples where the price has stayed or increased.
No question there was some manipulation which also lead to real sales that were taking place during the frenzy. I can see a card like a 52 Mantle going for $500k+ and then the next one going higher due to the perceived shortage/scarcity since there are only 31 cards graded PSA 8.
The Clemente, Koufax, Rose, Jordan, and Ryan rookies were where the strange anomalies occurred and people got toasted. How does a Koufax 8 go for $80k (not even a high end one) when the average Koufax was in the $20-25k range at the time and the next highest grade was not even bringing those prices? Clemente had the same issues and same AH was "selling" these cards at those prices.
I PM'd with several board members at the time and still have the messages, and stated I was not touching anything high end at the time for the above 4-5 cards because there was no way those sales (or a majority of them) were legit and were eventually paid for. Great cards will still sell for premiums, but the huge jump up and then fall off the cliff imo was manipulated.
@fergie23 said:
I consigned several high dollar HOF RC cards during the mania and got paid for all of them. Other than a few outliers who has real evidence that these prices were fake? I remember chuckling at all the folks acting like PWCC sales weren't being paid for especially since that is where I had most of my cards consigned.
Robb
If you invested in Mantles or any of the classics you’re fine. If you bought into the hype of the 60s and 70s then, in general, you simply overplayed. The VCP evidence is clear as day.
There seems to be only one person here who keeps saying otherwise even though many seasoned collectors here have pointed out how they sold high last year and bought low this year.
It’s just data folks, it’s easy to read. I think the problem here is some people get too emotionally attached to their cards and/or decisions so they say things that simply aren’t true even when faced with black and white facts.
@fergie23 said:
I consigned several high dollar HOF RC cards during the mania and got paid for all of them. Other than a few outliers who has real evidence that these prices were fake? I remember chuckling at all the folks acting like PWCC sales weren't being paid for especially since that is where I had most of my cards consigned.
Robb
If you invested in Mantles or any of the classics you’re fine. If you bought into the hype of the 60s and 70s then, in general, you simply overplayed. The VCP evidence is clear as day.
There seems to be only one person here who keeps saying otherwise even though many seasoned collectors here have pointed out how they sold high last year and bought low this year.
It’s just data folks, it’s easy to read. I think the problem here is some people get too emotionally attached to their cards and/or decisions so they say things that simply aren’t true even when faced with black and white facts.
I'm curious, what is it that you're talking about? A dozen cards? Two dozen cards? How big is the list of cards that have dropped dramatically? I honestly don't know the answer, I don't collect 60s/70s cards.
The recent Heritage and REA auctions were chalked full of examples of plummeting prices. Other members posted examples of cards that took hits in the 25 to 50 percent realm.
For the 1970s I know the Ozzie Smith has been a popular one which had a price that skyrocketed up to almost $40K and has fallen below $30K and trending downwards.
I bring up those decades (and one’s after of course) as they are ones where pops are steadily increasing. That’s why I said Mantles and others from older years are more stable, for this and many other reasons.
Nothing about this seems to be a surprise to most people.
People just got caught up in the hype. That’s normal, as is reflecting on it after the fact.
I don't think anyone is disputing that something nefarious occurred summer of '16, I think what I'm trying to get at is how wide of a scope it was. It seems to me that anything involving the now infamous "Buyer's Group" was limited to HOF cards from the 60s and 70s. Everything, and I mean EVERYTHING, got a shot in the arm around the same time. I don't think people realize just how large the breadth of this hobby is. There's no way any group could have caused that. You're talking about millions upon millions of dollars and thousands of transactions. Not to mention that the vast majority of the prewar and modern (at least the modern that I follow) has maintained or continued to increase in price.
That's why I'm asking about what you're roughly talking about. Because if it's 30, 40, or 50 different cards, it's a drop in the bucket. Now, that may indeed be where this buyer's group took up activity and that's the conversation, but as a whole, the hobby experienced something different than what happened to those cards.
I feel like I have a pretty good handle on this, as well. A certain amount of people here will know about a project I started a few months ago (having nothing to do with the topics of this thread) where I started reading the pop reports (yup, you read that right). In an attempt to learn about large portions of the hobby that I knew nothing about, I started at 1887 and went through each year, set by set. Every time there was something I didn't know about (which was most of the time) I searched for them on ebay and looked them up on VCP. I compared pops between PSA and SGC. I created a spreadsheet to log interesting sets or cards as well as pop and price information. I did this all the way up to 1969... twice (seriously). It took me about 7 weeks. This was also my first connection with the hobby since I took a break in winter 2015/2016. I hadn't heard of summer of 2016 or anything about a buyer's group. What I noticed on my own was that prices jumped and held first quarter of 2016 (I was mostly in prewar). I also noticed stuff like Bonds and Clemens rookies jumped and held.
So I think it's important to make the distinction as to what it is we're talking about. Because there seems to be a prevalent "the sky is falling" tone attached to the examples that have recessed. Anyone want to sell me a Cobb T206 Green Portrait for 2016 prices?
Comments
yep. and i was already suspect prior to selling it but i put it up for more than twice what i paid for it, thinking it'd never sell.
was a lil gun shy about breaking up my #1 hustle set, but then outta the blue a particular individual from b'ham purchased it and i knew things were gonna get fishy. and they did. fishier than i could even fathom.
but in the latter stages, we have to remember that most of these cards that were reported "sold at record prices" never in fact sold at all.
thus 'returning' to normal is necessarily a correct term either.
crisser wasnt correct and the term a "market correction" isnt correct either.
market and attempted market manipulations are the only correct terms in my book.
This thread is like the seventh meeting of the Tiny Ding Dong Organization. What are you arguing about? None of you know or knew. If you did or do you'd put your money where your mouths are and retire. But you're all still here pretending to know what people who spend six figures on cards think or care about. Just go ahead and start the Baby Bubba Investing Club and pool all of this hot garbage into one thread for the sake of the board.
Seacrest OUT!
yep!!
youre exactly right, reggie seacrest!
thats exactly what im doing...
pretending.
ok i'm here. sooo, what are we talking about?
Winner, winner, chicken dinner!
I sold my '55 Koufax PSA 8 for 20k and my '55 Clemente PSA 7 for 23k. I never had any intention to sell either one but when a bubble forms you will always regret listening to the hype that prices will continue to climb. I just bought back the Koufax and previously bought back the Clemente for a fraction of my selling price. I commented that we were at the top back then but some unfortunate buyers just didn't believe me.
Late 60's and early to mid 70's non-sports
Yep I sold a lot and got paid to. Some guys here refuse to believe those prices were real last year but most were.
Glad to hear your story and that there were people who did read the writing on the walls instead of buying into all of the hype.
Awesome job. I have picked up at least a half dozen cards in the last 6 months that have been on my want list for steep discounts. Buying quality low pop cards of the greats on this dip should look pretty keen in 1 a year or so.
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once and a while.
Is it really any surprise to people that the current prices are nowhere near the prices "realized" as a result of the 2016 market manipulation that small group of people were responsible for?
We are still substantially above where we were in 2015. The 1971 Aaron PSA 9 was a $1k card then.
Dave
This is so comical. The notion that there aren't people who bought these cards at the prices reported is laughable. Kirk paid for his pool with his PSA 8 Rose sale. I only talk to a few high end collectors and they moved cards at the prices quoted and lots of them. I don't personally own any of them so I can't speak from any personal experience but the price decline is real. I am almost positive that the board member I responded to in a thread about a 55 Clemente that sold for 69k was @70ToppsFanatic and I said I can't imagine not being tempted sell after the card was bought for less than 10k. The response was they were waiting for 100k. I guess I just have to assume it was sold. A correction is a declining market and unless someone is blind they have to see significant pull backs in loads of cards. What's this big deal? Unless someone is dillusional they realize markets move up and down. The super spike collapsed and prices are reverting back to where they were and in some cases even lower. It's not personal it's just reality. I am not taking credit for a call on the way up or a call on the way down. Just stating the obvious. Those trying to act like they saw all this coming are fooling themselves. The vast majority were just excited to see the auction results and did nothing. Markets move in cycles and so inevitably there will be another up move at some point but the harsh reality is there are plenty of buyers who have lost money and won't ever recoup it all.
yes, a majority of these cards were paid for.
but most of those cards sold earlier in the "buying group" emersion talk.
towards the end (talking months) there was a ton of stuff and at exorbinant prices that did not.
more sickening however, there were cards that were proclaimed as 'sold' that simply was nothing more than a sham simply to get "data plugged" as a "documented transaction" and to get people talking. these were early on and is what basically helped started this crap.
in the beginning, i stood my ground in thinking that our hobby was finally getting some real appreciation w these prices. similar to how other hobbies took off in recent years and never looked back. primarily talking the classic car and fine art segments.
but then it just got ridiculous. the head scratchers went from scratching to scraping. ultimately, greed and stupidity entered and prevailed.
there were several examples prior but i think there was a koufax 8 that "went" for $180k. goodwin maybe?
then the snowball effect ensued. people consigned/sold cards thinking they have a lot of easy cash to spend on "more cards" but then never got paid for.
it basically turned into an "in-auction-house musical chairs" game but w no real money..."he consigned this, but bought that, but his card didnt get paid for, so hes not gonna pay for his purchase, blah, blah, blah."
but yes, some people didnt end up w a proverbial "chair" and left standing while holding the bag.
then reports of people reneging at just about every auction house, heritage being a big one just added to the clustermuck.
they didnt even attempt in collecting on some major accts because it was basically futile.
but the buying group gimmick was and still is hilarious.
and still dont think that pool set up coulda been done w the rose budget. its too nice to have been done for that price.
I consigned about 1/2 my cards when the prices went crazy last year. Got paid for everything . Should have sold 100% and bout some back after.
If you want to measure the market, the high grade stars and HOFers is not the best gauge. The data points for sales are few, many on here are speaking of single data points rather than a larger group. Take a look at the low to mid-grade stars and HOFers to see how their were some spikes in 2016, but the prices steadily increased and plateaued to a degree. I am looking at the 1954 Hank Aaron RC in PSA 6 for example. You can see two sales for around $5500 in 7/16, then it lowered to normal levels and a few sales in the $4500 range. After that the sales were in the low $3000s to high $2900s up to the current date save for a few outliers. You can see prior to that around 4/15 one could be had for the low $2000s, yet since they have gradually appreciated with the exceptions of a few spikes in prices. The prices appreciating steadily leads to long term stability.
eBay Store
Greg Maddux #1 Master SetGreg Maddux #2 Basic Set
Honest question, if this was all the work of a small buying group manipulating high-grade HOF rookies how does that explain the surge in the entire hobby, from prewar to modern? If you peruse VCP you'll see upticks in just about everything around summer last year and in many instances they haven't dropped off.
Arthur
I think it’s funny when people talk about stability in the card market when it’s become crystal clear that the bottom has completely fallen out on A LOT of “premium” cards from the 60s and 70s.
Sorry but a lot of people simply got played and the data shows this.
When the population of something is low enough it’s pretty easy to keep the perception of it’s value high ... but as the pop increases people just get bored of shilling and just moved on.
Wasn’t there someone who was building a perfect 1978 set who was paying $1K a common a few years ago? You’re lucky to get $100 for the same card these days.
It’s certainly been fun to watch but the only thing that’s been steady these days has been the general decline in hammer prices.
This is about the 23rd time you've made the same post just in different language. Do you even collect sportscards? What do you collect? Do you plan to contribute to the board in a positive way or is this just your thing, bashing high grade cards from the 60s and 70s? Because at this point you just seem like a troll. Anytime someone has made a counterpoint to your argument you just rehash this post in a different form.
By your post frequency you obviously have a lot of time on your hands so it would be great if you could contribute in a positive way. Maybe share some of your collection or talk about what you like. But the whole "sky is falling and everyone that bought is an idiot" routine has run its course. I think it's time to retire that bit.
Arthur
LOL, I just thought this "disagree" was funny...
Jenny = alt
Talk about outing your own alts, jeez.
Arthur
That is too funny! Can’t believe we have “alts” on this board
Hiya Keith
Happy Thanxgiving buddy!
No, to my best recollection, it was an eBay sale.
From my own perspective, I have collected vintage cards my whole life. Now that I am a little older and have a son who rekindled my interest, I am able to spend much more than I did in the early days of my youth. I don't necessarily do so BUT having the ability to do so means that if something came along that I really wanted, I might splurge.
My point? The height of baseball card collecting and the sports memorabilia market (arguably) was let's call it 1985-1995. A lot of good modern cards in that span and the vintage stars of yesteryear were still making the rounds at shows and conventions - Willie, Mickey and Duke signing were popular and seemingly happening all over the place. Many of the those collectors - like me - will be returning with renewed interest and disposable income as they get older. Support will come and people who buy an hold will profit considerably. That's my call.
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
I made a killing last year funneling HOF late 60’s cards through PWCC. Believe it or not the PWCC HE designation has paid dividends, almost as much as the heavy push that happened back then.
Well we know who Jenny is now
It's amazing, two posters who hadn't posted in almost 5 months happen to come in and see my post and disagree with it within 10 minutes of me posting it. Me thinks Mortiz didn't think that one entirely through.
Arthur
To me your post is very rude and condescending. I don’t think you help yourself much by attacking people for having too much time on their hands when you clearly are spending a lot of time here yourself.
I think what a lot of people have been pointing out (correctly) is that the market has simply gone down a lot since last year. I listened to what many others said about the bubble bursting and sold off much of my late 60s registry for a huge profit and have also bought back a good portion of it at a nice discount recently.
No reason to think things won’t spike up again but until that happens now is a great time to be a buyer!
I've always found it distasteful of someone to tell me after the fact I bought XYZ stock at 10 and sold it at 50 and bought it back again when it hit.... Same thing with several people jumping in here to boast I sold at the the high and bought back cheaper later. Well, Good for you but to boast after the fact is just in poor taste. Now do you want to hear how long I've been long AAPL?
I have been collecting since 1957 as a hobby. I did not track prices much in those days but it looks to me like the market is up a little since 1967 when the Card Collectors Company mailed me this
Bowman Baseball -1948-1955
Fleer Baseball-1923, 1959-2007
Al
Whew! Getting those '52 high numbers as a set would set you back a cool $90. FWIW, that was strong money in 1967! Interesting also, that you could put away 54-57 sets for not much more than the current '66, '67, etc. And they didn't bother to break out Mantle as a single for '52 Topps? An oversight? Really cool look at the hobby past.
So, if this is indeed the correction ... what’s next?
@CrissCriss it’s time for you to properly gloat. Don’t be shy lol
So much Sturm und Drang over a moving conversational target that is impossible to hit.
I’ve never understood the instinct to lump all cards into one market, moving exclusively in one direction or another at a given time. As some have posted here, and I think rightly, at any moment some cards can sell for a record high, while others are simultaneously selling for less.
For example, that beautiful 1952 Mantle in PSA 4 just set a record price for the grade. That doesn’t mean all cards or even all PSA 4 ‘52 Mantles are rising. It just means that specimen at that moment sold for that amount— it is a data point unique to that card with those bidders active.
Instagram: mattyc_collection
I think they did actually.
$1.00 for a single or $90 for the high set. So Mantle was $1 for the rookie. I guess the premium was put on the scarcity of the highs and not the individual card.
This raises a question.
I wonder if you could buy cards for $0.05 of #433 Pancho Herrera requesting no "a" errors? lol
I sold modern PSA 10 rookies during the spike last year and the buying group affected modern as well even if they weren't actively manipulating those cards. I sold a 2004 Contenders Big Ben for close to $3000 through PWCC. I see that the most recent examples sold for half that much.
I think with the high end cards that exhibit strong centering and eye appeal there is going to be a strong market for key rookies. I have seen two examples in the last 5 days of Mantle rookies from 51 and 52, one private and one at auction, both go for record prices and blow away VCP high sales figures by more than 20%.
I've been flagged!
Don't worry... when one person makes posts as three different alts in a single thread, you have nothing to worry about.
short answer, this:
(primarily when the guy sees the dukes looking over the floor and says "lets get in on it".)
long answer:
the manipulation did occur in several different segments of the sportscards market. obviously the hof rcs, but dont forget the '90 fleer jordan 10s that got up to the thousand buck range. quite a vast amount of games played on various and readily available unopened boxes and cases. it was ridiculous. over the years, i always mentally noted this unopened fleer case marked for $50 at my pos local card shop which had easily accumulated well over an inch of dust. so when the madness ensued, i went and snagged. listed and sold each box for $135 in less than 48 hrs. and to several different individuals. the reason, curiosity. i try not to blurt out too many things that im not educated on or have experienced myself. so w all this buying group/ manipulation talk i wanted to attempt to find out what was really going on. shortly after seeing what happened w that $50 expierence, i posted a few mid-grade and dead centered hof rc that i had literally just picked up. 3 in particular and that stick out was a rose 7. i even started a thread on n54 prior to listing so people could follow and actually thwart potential manipulators (had over 200 watchers most of whom were n54 members) which, under an auction format, hammered at $5400 or $5800, a near record. and paid for. and then a pair 68 ryan's (one in a sgc holder, the other in a psa) that were literally just purchased two weeks prior. since i had my unopened sales, i had my legitmate auction sale and since ryan is my guy, i put two absolute crazy BIN prices bc im not really a seller. both sold within 24 hrs of listing. and each went to the opposite sides of the country, but these stick out in my mind bc dpeck mentioned one of these sales in a thread about how it was just purchased and resold (not recalling if he realized it was my ebay handle or not, maybe he'll chime in if he recalls) but we ended up texting back and forth that night about what was going on and how shocked i was that they had actually sold so quickly after i had just purchased AND at those prices. i mean, even if you arent privy to vcp, it doesnt take a genius to check completed ebay sales.
so with my personal science experiments completed i could confidently laugh at the "buying group" notion. and came to the conclusion that a few different groups of manipulators and dealers sparked the frenzy, kept it alive, then moved on to another card, etc etc ALL WHILE unknowingly showing another set of folks that collect in a completely different seg how easy it was to document these so called "completed sales" and cause another spark in another seg. then rinse, wash, repeat.
all while keeping in mind that there are a ton of john q. public collectors out there that never check or know about these message boards for some of this almost real time information. there are some real good slueths here.
just look how quickly jenny got called out. again. someone made that look easier than dialing 867-5309.
but again, i cant imgaine what is/was going on in the mind of some of these fellows that werent privy to these threads. they've got to asking themselves "what. in. the. world. just. happened?"
as to why the frenzy ensued and so easily sparked and encouragable, im certainly no wizard or finance guru, but id like to think it was the perfect storm.
stocks and bonds werent exactly strong.
real estate was looking better but not great. banks and investors extremely cautious now-a-days. plus, a lot of people had just got burned on that bubble and still had that bad taste lingering in the mouth.
an upcoming presidential election which pretty much makes all of wall street realitively gun shy until the party winner is declared. it really is a "HUUUGE" deal in regards to our economy, govt budgets and regulations. it also sets serious precedence over corporate america, their bottom lines and what they can or cant do and/or get away with.
tax returns coming in.
buzz of the national.
wild wild west. no real legalities, regulation or federal laws to adhere to. just look at all the fraud on ebay that occurs every day in the entire sports memorabilia market+.
even if someone reports 1 fake/stolen card, once that authority fig hears that it's occurred online and over state lines, youll be hard pressed to ever hear any consistently positive results for the victims.
ie, the fake holders deriving outta mehico. been going on for over 10 years now. still zero resolution, so this under the radar, get in, get out method was a smart low risk, high reward maneuver.
nothing of this of precedence had really ever occurred previously or to this degree. similar to the default swap thing.
and probably a big one here. people simply freaking that if this upward trend continues like it is, that they'd might get priced out of that certain card they needed. and on the other end of the spectrum: greed and thoughts of easy money to be made.
trickle down and boiling over effects.
.
.
but to answer your question more thoroughly and on a personal level, i think it was simply the 'herd' effect. a lot of people saw what they thought was legitimately going on and thought they'd turn their hobby into a day-trade side hustle. so a lot of people made money, however a lot of people got burned too. ie tulip mania.
the good news for true collectors is those who are financially able to hold shouldn't really lose in the long term.
10 year effect of a certain marquee hof rookie card:
and for those who thought theyd become a fly-by-night cardboard day trader and used their lines of credits, credit cards or cashed in college tutition /retirement plans learned a really hard lesson.
personally it was just another day for me.
luckily i had all of my marquee basic player sets completed. some several times over. so there was nothing i really 'needed'. as for last summer, actually had a lil burnout on high-end cardboard and switched gears to a huge golf card collection pick up and my centered hof rookie run that has turned out to be and still is a good time to buy. (not pitching, as im just about done there too!
)
as for my reg card collection, did manage to have a nice run of good sales mixed w a couple of good purchases. did have 1 purchase that most would consider a bad buy...for now.
in the end, not pissed that i didnt cash in all of my gems. also happy that i didnt get caught up in all that mess.
the one thing im truly happy with and didnt recognize until this scenario was how fortunate i was in always filling the big holes first....for 2 reasons.
first, referring back to that vcp pic above.
as the big purchases were done first, it naturally allowed for more time to pass as i completed the rest of the set. every big purchase seemed like absolute insanity at the time. as time marched on that insanity turned into brilliancy.
the trickle down effect here was that prevented me from being a victim in all of this.
in the end, i just hope no one got too burned though. certainly hope we dont hear any reports that one of good guys jumped outta a high rise window or something.
well. if ya got this far i honestly dont know whether to congratulate ya, just feel sorry for ya or try to sell ya some oceanfront property in arizona. but i do know that this should just about cover my opinion on this matter.
ETA:
after a heated call from legal. i need to amend and attach the following disclaimer:
for legality purposes, the expressed written opinion holds absolutely no value or merit whatsoever nor accredited by any institution of any kind. you have no right of refund on the 3.5 minutes you wasted on actually reading this nonsense. furthermore, author vehemently denies any and all rights of claim on the loss of vision, that migraine you just noticed or will shortly ensue and any/or all instances of carpel tunnel syndrome that will surely arise for actually typing a reply to this post.
finally, should you excercise your right to actually flag this post, a broken or severed clicking finger could and should certainly occur, usually w/i a 7 year time frame, in some freak broken mirror accident solely because you stopped under that open ladder in a humorous and feeble attempt to pick up a busted penny, which was clearly on tails and after your fellow-spousal-mirror carrier strongly encouraged you to pass on (thrice) for a multitude of obvious reasons.
but in the meantime, remember to take care of yourself. and each other.
and as always...thanks for stopping by, san diego.
longest. post. ever.
Yes I totally recall texting back and forth about it.
I will be the first to admit that I thought the move in a lot of the cards was real. I chat on the phone with a guy from NY who has a lot of HOF rookies and he keeps a log of his collection and recent sales and it was incredible how much it had moved up. Our conclusion at the time was that with so many in long term collectors hands there simply wasn't enough supply to meet a fresh waive of collectors returning to the hobby with money. He does a lot of things with athletes and got one in on the Aaron Judge run and the guy made a quick 15k in no time. I don't care how much money you have or make everyone likes profit. The guy thought he was a genius and is eager for another play. The same exact scenario I have to assume happened here so as prices were rising false confidence from prior success was kicking in.
I was at a dinner with a Wall St. economist and fund manager and we got to chatting about my card collection and I said my cards are just child's play and the real stuff goes for big money and are better long term investments then the funds we were discussing. I filled him in on the 52 Topps Mantle and how it was going for 78k in 2010 when I started getting cards graded and was zooming past 250k at the moment and that is just an 8. I also referenced how a 10 had sold for 122k and was a several million dollar card and these over the long run only go up in value. I never expected it to nearly triple in such a brief period of time and before that had thought it had peaked and was due for a consolidation. Even at 400k the card in an 8 has come a long way and if you were looking at a long term price chart it is probably still in a major uptrend after the pullback. He didn't really buy into my logic but I think there are enough people with money and a connection to collectibles and of course desire for bragging rights that many of the marque cards probably will appreciate continuously overtime. Returns aren't linear and in many cases are lumpy so perhaps this will still be true.
This probably was just the perfect storm. Fear of missing out, tons of cash sloshing around from prior success in cards, elevated card prices to trade with, cash on the sidelines, and pursuit of profit mixed in. I think the primary reason I bought into it was I have never participated in anything where you can see such huge percentage gains from either grading or just price appreciation. I get it that spending say $50 and having it turn into $200 doesn't change anyone's life but the same ratio's were happening in the parts of the card market that are really considered marquee collectibles so why shouldn't the big boy toys do the same? Even though many of these high profile cards have come down if you look at them over a longer term period of time they have still done great. A 55 Clemente 8 at even 20k is still up 257% in a six year period of time. That is still pretty awesome.
I Consigned my psa 7 Rose RC to test the craziness before you did last year and it hit 6k
You guys were talking about it on net54 being a fake sale so I messaged you and swore it was the real deal!
It had to have something to do with all the psa 10's being sold last summer.
I consigned several high dollar HOF RC cards during the mania and got paid for all of them. Other than a few outliers who has real evidence that these prices were fake? I remember chuckling at all the folks acting like PWCC sales weren't being paid for especially since that is where I had most of my cards consigned.
Robb
The problem though is that the Buyer's Group theory doesn't fit with the activity of prewar cards. Just like the 60s/70s high-grade HOF cards or what ever modern gets cherry picked, a LOT of prewar saw a boost right around the same time, maybe a little earlier (February 2016). The difference is the prewar boosts have held or in many instances have continued to grow.
I realize that 60s/70s HOFers is right in this board's wheelhouse so of course that's going to be the focus of the conversation but the 2016 boost occurred across all eras and sports and was not limited to key or watershed cards. I believe the so-called Buyer's Group occurred on top of a much, much larger tectonic shift in the hobby. For naysayers, it's much easier to cherry pick a handful of examples that fit their narrative and then point to the BG. But anyone that's spent any time on VCP looking at cards from all eras has seen the boost on a much grander scale. They've also seen where it hasn't recessed back.
So while it's fun for a craven few to point to a handful of cards that have dropped in price quite a bit, the larger truth is that there are any, many times more examples where the price has stayed or increased.
Arthur
No question there was some manipulation which also lead to real sales that were taking place during the frenzy. I can see a card like a 52 Mantle going for $500k+ and then the next one going higher due to the perceived shortage/scarcity since there are only 31 cards graded PSA 8.
The Clemente, Koufax, Rose, Jordan, and Ryan rookies were where the strange anomalies occurred and people got toasted. How does a Koufax 8 go for $80k (not even a high end one) when the average Koufax was in the $20-25k range at the time and the next highest grade was not even bringing those prices? Clemente had the same issues and same AH was "selling" these cards at those prices.
I PM'd with several board members at the time and still have the messages, and stated I was not touching anything high end at the time for the above 4-5 cards because there was no way those sales (or a majority of them) were legit and were eventually paid for. Great cards will still sell for premiums, but the huge jump up and then fall off the cliff imo was manipulated.
If you invested in Mantles or any of the classics you’re fine. If you bought into the hype of the 60s and 70s then, in general, you simply overplayed. The VCP evidence is clear as day.
There seems to be only one person here who keeps saying otherwise even though many seasoned collectors here have pointed out how they sold high last year and bought low this year.
It’s just data folks, it’s easy to read. I think the problem here is some people get too emotionally attached to their cards and/or decisions so they say things that simply aren’t true even when faced with black and white facts.
I'm curious, what is it that you're talking about? A dozen cards? Two dozen cards? How big is the list of cards that have dropped dramatically? I honestly don't know the answer, I don't collect 60s/70s cards.
Arthur
Arthur,
The recent Heritage and REA auctions were chalked full of examples of plummeting prices. Other members posted examples of cards that took hits in the 25 to 50 percent realm.
For the 1970s I know the Ozzie Smith has been a popular one which had a price that skyrocketed up to almost $40K and has fallen below $30K and trending downwards.
I bring up those decades (and one’s after of course) as they are ones where pops are steadily increasing. That’s why I said Mantles and others from older years are more stable, for this and many other reasons.
Nothing about this seems to be a surprise to most people.
People just got caught up in the hype. That’s normal, as is reflecting on it after the fact.
I don't think anyone is disputing that something nefarious occurred summer of '16, I think what I'm trying to get at is how wide of a scope it was. It seems to me that anything involving the now infamous "Buyer's Group" was limited to HOF cards from the 60s and 70s. Everything, and I mean EVERYTHING, got a shot in the arm around the same time. I don't think people realize just how large the breadth of this hobby is. There's no way any group could have caused that. You're talking about millions upon millions of dollars and thousands of transactions. Not to mention that the vast majority of the prewar and modern (at least the modern that I follow) has maintained or continued to increase in price.
That's why I'm asking about what you're roughly talking about. Because if it's 30, 40, or 50 different cards, it's a drop in the bucket. Now, that may indeed be where this buyer's group took up activity and that's the conversation, but as a whole, the hobby experienced something different than what happened to those cards.
I feel like I have a pretty good handle on this, as well. A certain amount of people here will know about a project I started a few months ago (having nothing to do with the topics of this thread) where I started reading the pop reports (yup, you read that right). In an attempt to learn about large portions of the hobby that I knew nothing about, I started at 1887 and went through each year, set by set. Every time there was something I didn't know about (which was most of the time) I searched for them on ebay and looked them up on VCP. I compared pops between PSA and SGC. I created a spreadsheet to log interesting sets or cards as well as pop and price information. I did this all the way up to 1969... twice (seriously). It took me about 7 weeks. This was also my first connection with the hobby since I took a break in winter 2015/2016. I hadn't heard of summer of 2016 or anything about a buyer's group. What I noticed on my own was that prices jumped and held first quarter of 2016 (I was mostly in prewar). I also noticed stuff like Bonds and Clemens rookies jumped and held.
So I think it's important to make the distinction as to what it is we're talking about. Because there seems to be a prevalent "the sky is falling" tone attached to the examples that have recessed. Anyone want to sell me a Cobb T206 Green Portrait for 2016 prices?
Arthur