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Wow; Buyers club coming home to roost
Sdub
Posts: 736 ✭✭✭
This card sold for about $19K in 5/16 via Memory Lane. Closed at $3.3K today.
I use the term "sold" quite loosely, as we never know if it was paid for at ML. My guess....not.
I've wanted a 9 for awhile and I've bid on just about every one over the past 2 years. I have an 8.5 that I'm just fine with, but have come in 2nd about a dozen times on the 9's. I feel my days of coming in 2nd are nearing an end.
Collecting PSA 9's from 1970-1977. Raw 9's from 72-77. Raw 10's from '78-'83.
Collecting Unopened from '72-'83; mostly BBCE certified boxes/cases/racks.
Prefer to buy in bulk.
Collecting Unopened from '72-'83; mostly BBCE certified boxes/cases/racks.
Prefer to buy in bulk.
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Dang, '71s are beauties in mint condition. Can you shed some light on what the Hammerin' Hank Collection is?
Arthur
That's quite a drop. Was it the exact same card or another 9 in the ML auction? Not that it matters to your point, just curious.
Should have liquidate my collection last year and bought bitcoin lol
ReggieCleveland - It was one hell of a collection of Hank Aaron cards.
https://www.psacard.com/psasetregistry/baseball/vintage-player-sets-pre-1970/hank-aaron-basic-set/alltimeset/10148
Wow, incredible collection. Thanks for sharing it with me.
Arthur
The "key" word for mega sales last year is "sold" - did the transaction actually go thru?
I know specifically of one sale of a 55T Clemente PSA 8 for over 90K that was a "renege."
Yes, it was the exact same card.
Steve
No one should be surprised by any of these huge price falls. I think we’re gonna see a wave of firesales as collectors start realizing they’ve grossly overpaid for cards that are becoming easier and easier to buy.
The $8K loss on the Ozzie that just sold is just one example, as is the card referenced by the OP.
Get out while you can people LOL
A 1969 Kareem psa 10 just sold with Heritage Auctions for $260,000+ lower than last year WOW !
Mike
Was that a Goodwin sale by chance?
KC
Why is this surprising to anyone? What has kept value from last spring/summer?? Everything was so overly inflated with renegs and artificial bidding. It was a bad time to buy, however a good time to sell. Now is the opposite
OMG!
Just saw that. So for the 14 months from August 27, 2016 to November 16, 2017 it cost the seller about $19K a month to hold onto that card LOL
I expect to see this trend to continue as people jump ship on cards that are doomed to lose value before others cut their losses first.
We're back.
IG: goatcollectibles23
The biggest lesson I've learned in this hobby, and in life, is that if you have a strong conviction, you owe it to yourself to see it through. Don't sell yourself, or your investments, short. Unless the facts change. Then sell it all.
I gotta admit, these threads are fun just for seeing people pretend to know how someone who spends six figures on a sportscard thinks. So I guess they're not completely without merit..
Arthur
I was under the impression we were back to normal from the "buyer's club" days a while ago. It looks to me now we are headed further down. Can anyone quote key 70s and 80s rookies from the Great Recession? Like how much was a psa 9 Eddie Murray or psa 10 gwynn, etc?
So the real question is was @CrissCriss right about correction? I think so.
Where is he??
The 1978 PSA 10 Eddie Murray averaged around $15K from mid 2015 till early 2017, peeking at $18K early this year and then taking a nosedive down to $10K in September.
The population of this card has, to no surprise, increased substantially over the past year or so. It was hovering around pop 5 about 2 years ago. Now it’s a pop 16.
Most late “premium” 1970s cards will suffer this same fate so I’m expecting to see more and more firesales over the next year as the market corrects itself.
Wasn't crisscross predicting a correction for 2016 also?
And 2015, etc.
In other words, pretty much ever since he's posted to this forum.
In the course of every human endeavor since the dawn of time the risk of human error has always been a factor. Including but not limited to field goals, 4th down attempts, or multiple paragraph ramblings on a sports forum authored by someone who shall remain anonymous.
A 40% drop with a 200%+ Pop increase is actually really good relative strength.
He might have been early but he was right. You could have said in January of 2000 CSCO was going to collapse at $65 a share and it ran to $82 so you looked stupid for a time but a year later $65 looked like an incredible sale.
Prices go up and prices go down. It's just life.
I like your positive way of looking at things. I’m pretty sure, though, that if I had paid $18K for a card earlier this year that is now selling for $10K I might not be so happy.
Not all cards move in the same direction at the same time just like the stock market. I watched in disbelief as the prices went up in many cases 500% and saw my cards just trade in a range. Now they have collapsed and many of mine have starting moving up again. A correction is healthy in a bull market.
There are people who bought cards like the PSA 8 Rose rookie for 18k who will probably never break even.
Not familiar with that one. Was there a recent frenzy?
You could also spin it to say the boy who cried wolf was early on his call but was eventually correct.
Remember, timing is everything. He sure didn't call the runup of 2016, did he?
In the course of every human endeavor since the dawn of time the risk of human error has always been a factor. Including but not limited to field goals, 4th down attempts, or multiple paragraph ramblings on a sports forum authored by someone who shall remain anonymous.
No one did. I have said many times anyone who thinks they can accurately predict card values consistently is fooling themselves. That said when a market breaks it is hard to find a bottom. For all the heat he took the forecast came true.
Just one of the cards that had a super spike. From 3k to 18k back to 3k.
I will never understand how someone can buy a fairly common card for so much more than it sold for just a few weeks or months later. Oh well at least they still have the card. They can't go to zero unless lost or stolen which is s great thing.
I remember kicking myself last spring when I passed on Muffins psa 9 Rose RC for 35k
It hit 90k multiple times last summer
Now one just sold for 40k last night in Heritage
Next one back to 35k ?
THIS
The people who do well in this hobby are not short term flippers. Like day traders, short term flippers generally lose. Those in the long haul will be fine.
Unless you loaded up on high grade Rose RC's last spring
Or any HOF high grade 50's-60's RC
This exact thinking is why some continually lose value on their collections. If you’re trying to actually profit on collecting then you need to be aware of the potential for the pop of a card to increase. For some it’s small, for others, not so much.
Short term flipping actually works well if you buy from the right seller and sell with a different one and at the right time. Unfortunately if you hold on to these easier to come by cards too long you will never get back what you put into them.
Of course for some that doesn’t matter but for others it’s a financial gut punch.
I see the near perfect centered Mantle 8 went for 408k. Correction confirmed. It shouldn't bother people if they are long term bullish. Buy more.
Wait, I just want to make sure I have this down. You're saying if I buy a card for one amount and sell it for more than that I can turn a profit? And you're just giving these tips away for free on the internet?
I'm pretty sure the only one on here that disagreed with him was Brent.
I agree with Arthur, that these threads can be fun.
People spending 6 figures on cardboard can probably afford to lose it as they spend 7 figures or more on exotic yachts and homes that cost that much in maintenance upkeep and storage fees. All that money is lost as far as I'm concerned as a nice home or yacht does not bring me personally the same pleasure that my cards do.
For what it's worth (free advice) here's what I think.
People who do well in this hobby are people like myself, that treat this like a hobby and not an investment. The enjoyment I get out of my cards has nothing to do with what I've spent on them. The enjoyment they've provided me day in and day out for the last 25 years is just priceless as far as I'm concerned. If tomorrow all my cards (price wise) were to go down the crapper in value, I can tell you (without a doubt) that I won't look at my cards any different. I will look at them with the same passion I did over 40 years ago when I was a child.
Of course, this is a hobby for me and not a job or investment choices that I'm making.
Happy collecting!!!
Donato
Donato's Complete US Type Set ---- Donato's Dansco 7070 Modified Type Set ---- Donato's Basic U.S. Coin Design Set
Successful transactions: Shrub68 (Jim), MWallace (Mike)
Even a broken clock is right twice a day..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
He should charge for that
I think these threads are comical. Reminds me of being a kid collecting and no matter what I said about a cards "value" or "worth", my dad's response was always, "the card is only worth what you can sell it for." This is when I learned my cards were worth no more than half of Beckett high... because that's the max I could sell them for (to a dealer). Nowadays you're not stuck selling to dealers, but you have to realize that if you win an auction... you are essentially willing to pay more for something than anyone else is. So to think you can sell it for more very quickly, is both naive and risky.
What's disappointing is that these threads get so much more attention then threads about personal collecting goals or sentimental value threads. But I expect nothing less... carry on.
So are you admitting for once you were wrong?
Not at all. I don't purchase PSA 10 rookies or 10K cards. I also find all this conjecture rather amusing about the buying group and which cards are destined to go up or down.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Haha. I knew you wouldn't. Potentially the most vocal person saying he was wrong and yet he was right. We all get things wrong. Some of us can admit it. Obviously you don't fall into that category.
It's okay to just say I was wrong Tim.
I'm still waiting for you to admit you were wrong about sniping potentially saving you money first. It's okay to just say you were wrong, David, LOL...
As for most vocal person saying criss was wrong, you are mistaken once again and must have me confused with another poster~I am primarily an unopened collector, and prices for early to mid 70s product are stronger than ever. Whether that will continue, I have no idea, but I certainly never espoused any opinion or predictions on the prices for key HOFers and high grade rookies. If you can find any evidence to the contrary, please feel free to post it here.
I will also say that if someone calls for a correction long enough as prices continue to rise at a remarkable rate, that sooner or later that person will be correct. It didn't take Nostradamus to realize the prices being attained in 2015-2106 for many blue chip cards were not sustainable.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
@grote15 Countless posts making reference to "the correction " in various threads.
As for sniping no change here. Feel stronger than ever about my position. I bet a ton of these cards that have collapsed were won with snipes.
I just call a spade a spade and while some may not like this Crisser's approach he was right and to me that's all that matters.
I think it will depend on the card. Some may but many probably won't. The PSA 8 Rose rookie I have referenced I think never sees 18k again. Could a Mantle 8 go back to 660k? Potentially. If one of the 10's sells publicly for a monster number it could certainly assist in lifting other copies prices. I am sure most saw a rare painting sell for 450 million this past week so the collectible markets still have a lot of money sloshing around in them.
Just look at the arcs in VCP. Some of them are pretty hilarious.
That 1969 Pete Rose PSA 8 one is good. From 6/13/16 at $18,000 to 11/11/17 at $3,375.63.
The PSA 9 one is pretty rough too. 7/3/16 at $150,001 to 10/29/17 at $60,000.
The PSA 10 went for $157,366 on 5/20/12 and then $717,000 on 8/18/16. Wonder what that card would have fetched if it sold last month. If previous recent losses of “premium” cards are any indication, you’d probably be looking at a quarter to half a million dollar loss in a year!
I was happy to land one of the white whales of my collecting sphere, a 1972 Roger Staubach rookie in PSA 9, this week for just over 1/2 the price it sold for at the peak last summer. Hopefully I wasn't too early (still) on it, however, I will not be selling that one for a long, long time. It's the center piece of my Cowboys collection. I just wish I'd get a shot at a 1963 Bob Lilly rookie in PSA 9 before prices start going back in the other direction...
The Doomsday Collection
Dallas Cowboys Ring of Honor | All-Time Dallas Cowboys | Bob Lilly Master | Pro Football HOF Dallas Cowboys
Yes, and if you had followed crissers forecast you would have missed out on making a lot of money
because you would have sold before the big runup of 2015-2016. I consigned quite a few cards with
PWCC last year and they did very well. Lucky I didn't listen to Crisser and sell two or three years ago.
In the course of every human endeavor since the dawn of time the risk of human error has always been a factor. Including but not limited to field goals, 4th down attempts, or multiple paragraph ramblings on a sports forum authored by someone who shall remain anonymous.