Has the 1909-S VDB cent been dethroned?
Overdate
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The 2017-S cent from the “enhanced uncirculated” set has a maximum mintage of 225,000, less than half the mintage of the 1909-S VDB. Even allowing for losses in circulation, the 2017-S is probably scarcer. I think this may have driven today’s quick sellout of the set. Many of the other coins are keys for their denominations also, but I think there’s a good chance that the cent will be the most sought-after coin in the set.
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No. All of them will be top grade and anyone that wants a top grade example will be able to have it for cheap.
Looking for Top Pop Mercury Dime Varieties & High Grade Mercury Dime Toners.
Plus, as a "special issue for collectors", wouldn't it be easy for a purist to ignore as an interesting oddity, but "not required" for a circulation strike collection?
I guess only time will tell....A lot of time, probably.....But I have a feeling that the number of collectors who shoot for "every single issue ever created" is a small number compared to those who will just want a circulation strike set.
Check back in a hundred years and see how many of those 2017-S (“enhanced uncirculated”) Lincolns survived.
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no, the 2017 S from the set will have about a 99.99% survival rate
BHNC #203
Unlike the 09SVDB, this piece was not made for circulation so lower initial mintage notwithstanding, the survival rate will remain extremely high for the foreseeable future. And everyone will have them in 69 and 70 slabs.
RIP Mom- 1932-2012
True, but I would guess the 1909-S VDB has at least a 50% survival rate. That would make the two coins even.
Also, many are buying the 2017-S for the set itself, not the cent. Not all the sets will be broken up, so the number of "liberated" cents will be quite a bit lower than 225,000.
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Our host has the survival rate for the 09-s vdb to be about 10% or 50,000 in all grades.
Joe.
And that number may even be high.
RIP Mom- 1932-2012
I do not think this will be the case. First, the VDB has a cool and historical story, which is a big part of it. Second, the 2017-S was created for collectors and will be saved in high grades. Third, its all about supply and demand. There will be more demand for the VDB.
Fan of the Oxford Comma
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2021 Young Numismatist of the Year
This is the point that many people miss. The mintage is not even half of the story when it comes to rarity. The crucial factor is the number of survivors. Unless all of these 2017-S cents are stored in a building that burns down, the 1909-S-VDB will always be scarcer.
That being said the survival rate on the 1909-S-VDB cent had a high survival rate for a coin of its time. I once knew a dealer who had over 100 of them all certified in NGC holders. Unlike many coins, tokens and medals from the 19th century, you don’t have wait for an old collector to sell his holdings to get one.
Our host also has the survival rate for the common 1907 Indian Cent in all grades at 6,000. It's actually likely in the millions.
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Wrong thread
The only reason I ordered 2 sets were to get the Lincolns.
I'll crack one one out and send it to our host.
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A coin headline from the future:
August 1, 2117
A massive hoard of 2017-S enhanced uncirculated coins was found this past week in the barn of eccentric coin collector Otis Lumppe. Otis, who passed away this past month at the age of 117, had been hoarding this issue since he was a young numismatist back in the early 21st century. Otis told friends that he knew this issue would "have its day" and he would be in a position to cash in at that time. The hoard, which is estimated to contain more than 127,000 uncirculated coins, each authenticated, slabbed and stickered, will be auctioned to the highest bidder next Monday along with all of Otis' farming equipment. At least four of the estimated twelve remaining coin collectors in the US are expected to attend the auction.
The coin collectors are expected to be challenged by several scrap metal or scrap plastics dealers. It should make for an exciting auction.
You forgot to add
Buyer's Premium of Waste Recycling Fee :
19.5% of the successful bid per lot.
Remember the 1999 mint set with the ONLY 90% copper cent?
The S VDB is the first year Lincoln and had decades of history behind it. The 1970 S pop will remain unchanged and the coin easily purchased online in high grade. Many people have never heard of the newer coin but all their young lives with a penny album dreamed of having a S VDB.
I believe it was 2009. The PD bronze cents in the set never gained much traction, probably because they closely resemble the zinc circulation strikes. The 2017-S cents may fare better because their only competitors are the 2017-S proofs.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
And many younger collectors don't have date/mm sets going back that far. The 2017-S is currently the key Lincoln cent with the union shield reverse, and at the moment it's also a one-of-a-kind type coin. It may never attain the status of the 1909-S VDB, but I think this coin will earn its own place in numismatic lore.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
the S VDB was made for circulation. Big difference.
Less of a difference than it used to be. How many collectors of Kennedy halves end their sets at 2001?
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
This is a flipper's dream.... short and sweet with the extra premium....
The inputs of the above noted numismatists will prevail in this case.... Cheers, RickO
There will be a much higher attrition on the '17-S cent than the '09-S VDB and this will continue for decades. Even as we speak the newer coins are being lost in the mail. The coins will have a very low value and they will not be protected by large slabs and safety deposit boxes.
Since these are zinc any with even the tiniest bit of exposed core will virtually evaporate within 100 years. The attrition caused by this is unpredictable without sampling of the coins and time to elapse but is likely to be substantial. Since these coins are very inexpensive compared to the 1909 and unlike the '09 are available to the general public many will end up in the hands of those who don't appreciate them or know how to care for them.
Collectors today don't like moderns but the facts is these will be far scarcer than the '09-S VDB in Unc before too many years. Perhaps they'll never have much value but they will be tougher.
This isn't the biggest difference.
I'm quite confident that a well made and pristine 1984-P cent with nice attractive surfaces is far scarcer than an '09-S VDB in the same condition. Indeed, the difference is staggering if my roll and mint set searches are indicative of the scarcity of the '84-P.
Yet the '84-P wholesales at about 10c and the '09 at about 50,000 times as much!!!
In collectibles everything is about DEMAND not supply. Everyone wants an '09-S VDB but the few people who even have an '84 don't even notice it's ugly with poor surfaces.
I hope there's more than 12 coin collectors left in 100 years lol