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Disappointing 52 Topps Mantle PSA 8 auction

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    baz518baz518 Posts: 1,231 ✭✭✭✭
    edited July 15, 2017 5:29AM

    To echo Tim's thoughts... price, value, cost, VCP, or whatever you want to call it can only, at best, help identify a trend. No two cards are the same, and the sentiment for a card cannot be quantified. Same goes even if you are tracking one particular card, sentiment will change as time passes... just like the Mantle 7.5, sentiment changed as hopes for a bump dwindled. The true value of a card is only what it will sell for at that moment in time, period.

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    belzbelz Posts: 1,217 ✭✭✭

    I've been on the sidelines for the most part over the past year or so(helping son with big Pokemon cards-crazy prices but fun). I just think there are so many variables at play here to consider and the small percentage of people in the market. The person that ended up with that card may not have ever intended to get it but was more of a value play at that price. For me, I'd much rather own a 4.5 that has stronger eye appeal. I'd reslab, consgin for 500k and buy a few mint beauties up and down the mantle years.

    "Wots Uh The Deal" by Pink Floyd
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    DarinDarin Posts: 6,513 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I'm siding with Dpeck on this one.

    None of you other posters dropped an acronym as cool as 'FANG cards' like Dpeck did.
    Don't know what it means but I know greatness when I see it.
    Maybe see it on a slab someday?

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    Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,910 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Facebook, Amazon, Apple, NetFlix, Google

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    muffinsmuffins Posts: 469 ✭✭✭

    @CrissCriss said:
    Yes, the hammer price is totally related to the theory that it is an overgraded card in an old flip that was sold in an unknown auction.

    so the sky isnt falling?

    im soooo confused now.

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    muffinsmuffins Posts: 469 ✭✭✭

    and shame on hunts.

    the card shoulda been reholdered. period.

    most knew mumblings of the enhanced security features on the newer style flip prior to the announcement so even if it was already slated/advertised to be in this auction, pull the darn thing, get it reholdered and simply throw it in the next auction.

    hunts dropped the ball, imo and definitely scared off would-be consignors.

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    grote15grote15 Posts: 29,573 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 15, 2017 5:13PM

    The PSA 8 on the PSA site is a beauty.

    Here is a nice 8, too, with strong eye appeal, despite the line through the bill of Mickey's cap. though the color in the scan appears to be jacked up. Also, notice the old cert # in a new flip, which is an absolute must when selling a card of this stature, imo.



    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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    grote15grote15 Posts: 29,573 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 15, 2017 5:33PM

    Baseball, I'm not interested in getting into a back and forth with you~just stating that cards that possess strong eye appeal for the grade will command a premium. Nor did I ever state a PSA 8 requires 50./50 centering. Also, for a card like this, I think you need to a) reholder the card with a new PSA flip and b) consign to a more well-known auction house to maximize return. A PSA 8 does not need 50/50 centering to exceed the criteria for the grade. Even the guideline for a PSA 10 is 60/40 centering on front. For a PSA 8, centering can be 70/30 on front, a standard for which both of the examples you linked to meet.



    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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    grote15grote15 Posts: 29,573 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Also, the new holder with the hologram was not even used by PSA back in 2015 when that first PSA 8 Mantle sold at auction.



    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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    grote15grote15 Posts: 29,573 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Understood. There's no way to know if the factors I stated earlier with regard to this particular card would have had a significant impact on the hammer price or not. It will be interesting to see where the prices for Mantle rookies fall going forward~the proof will be in the pudding as they say, and those results may provide a good harbinger of things to come.



    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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    HighGradeLegendsHighGradeLegends Posts: 1,693 ✭✭✭✭

    May be ill time too? I see many saving to use their war chests at the national.

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    KendallCatKendallCat Posts: 2,986 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ClockworkAngel said:
    That all might be, but I had not ever heard their name until now and judging by the replies in this thread, there are many others who don't know them. I've never heard of them selling much of anything in the way of important or iconic cards until now. I just glanced at everything that sold in that same auction and there are some very nice and high value items, but it looks like they mainly consign autographs and memorabilia. Not much in the way of valuable cards outside of the Mantle.

    I'm with others in that it was a major error by the seller to take it here. I can't imagine why he would. The whole thing just seems a little goofy. Regardless, the winner got a great deal. I think if this card goes through one of the major auction houses it gets a lot more. I don't think Hunt got nearly as many looks as HA, REA, Memory Lane, Mile High, SCP, etc would have

    Agreed. Never saw the card up for auction, and why sell it a couple of weeks before the National when everyone is gearing up for the biggest event of the year and sitting on cash in case something walks into the Stephens Center in Chicago/Heritage and MLI auctions? Both Heritage and Memory Lane have huge auctions following the National and use the Natty to showcase huge items for sale. If this card had been sent through one of them for auction in August and not a small AH that many are not familiar with it would have been on the front cover with a lot more eyeballs looking at it.

    Condition of the card in regards to centering, upper left corner, color on the white borders... can be debated, but you can't tell me if this card is showcased by Heritage, shown at the National for a week, and then put up for auction it would not have sold for over $400k+. Too many big time buyers out there for them all to pass on a card that only a few dozen people own in PSA 8 or higher.

    KC

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    fleet47fleet47 Posts: 78 ✭✭

    Great discussion on 1952 Mantle pricing. We'll get our change to see another Mantle soon, in the Heritage auction. They show a estimate of 500 up. Also in a newer holder. I would not be surprised to see below 500. In fact, might not make 450 due to centering. Love to hear other opinions.

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    travis ttravis t Posts: 1,185 ✭✭✭

    Disappointing that no one has called out the OP for misppelling.

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    KbKardsKbKards Posts: 1,782 ✭✭✭

    Can anybody explain what the bidding process was for items in this event, and how exactly each item ended?

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    TomiTomi Posts: 643 ✭✭✭

    @travis t said:
    Disappointing that no one has called out the OP for misppelling.

    Oops, correction made. Did I spell oops right?

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    muffinsmuffins Posts: 469 ✭✭✭

    @Mr_9 said:

    @KbKards said:
    Can anybody explain what the bidding process was for items in this event, and how exactly each item ended?

    Ok, so this is probably another factor missing from the discussion so far. So I wasn't looking at anything in this event, so don't have first hand knowledge, but I do know Hunt is atypical compared to most card auctions in that they often run Live events that I have participated in, and this one the other day looks like that. Here's text from their website, which hasn't been edited yet:

    "The Auction is now closed to online bidding. High Bids & Ceiling Bids placed during the online bidding period will be executed competitively during the Live Auction, which begins on July 10th and 11th. Hunt Auctions will continue to accept traditional absentee bids and phone reservations until the Live Auction commences, but cannot guarantee arrangements made after the close of the online bidding period. For bidding inquiries, please contact us by phone: 610.524.0822 or email: info@huntauctions.com. It is not possible to bid online during the Live Auction itself."<<<

    So ones I bid in before, you could bid online during the live event, but you had to be sitting and waiting/watching the lot to come around and depending on interest, it can be as little as a 30 second window. That blurb seems to say it may have been only an in-person or phone in event for wealthy to-do bidders? Anyway, That would certainly have some affect on price, even accounting for the argument that a bidder with that degree of disposable income who really wanted it would find a way to be involved, but everyone has to agree that not having it freely and easily available for bidding without barriers could have dampened interested.

    I don't have a dog in this myself in that I don't care about Mantle particularly, and I'm not a dealer or in this for a living, so the resale value value and prices of these things matter virtually zilch to me.

    But I will ask what I don't think anyone else has yet, which is why do the rest care? Is it a suggestion that the achieved price of these super-duper items suggests the direction of the more achievable collector market, that is, in the $100-$1000 range where most of the rest of us probably live? If so, then I question that premise. Whether or not a Mantle with a possibly funky corner sold for $500k or $250k I bet doesn't change in the slightest whether the '89 Griffey Jr UD in gem continues to sell at $400, vs $600 or $200, right?

    its just part of virtually every collectibles hobby, thats why.

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    ClockworkAngelClockworkAngel Posts: 1,994 ✭✭✭

    When we consider all the factors involved, it really does look to be an anomaly of sorts. It was a perfect storm of questionable decisions by the seller and the card itself that I think contributed to this price.

    1. Old flip/old holder
    2. Relatively unknown auction house
    3. A fairly low end 8 not high on eye appeal
    4. Closed within weeks of the National

    As a result, I think the buyer got a pretty good buy. Only time will tell of course...
    As far as the seller is concerned, it's a bit of a head scratcher as to why, but I can only assume there was a hefty advance and/or terms paid by Hunt to the seller to be able to auction off the card...

    The Clockwork Angel Collection...brought to you by Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Chase
    TheClockworkAngelCollection
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    Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,910 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 17, 2017 11:00AM

    I just can't see how anyone who owns a copy in a PSA 8 couldn't be concerned when they see this. Perhaps it is a one off but if you look at the liner notes in the SMR the last copy sold for $660,000 earlier this year. When I first commented I didn't even realize the $240,000 sales price does include the buyers premium so you are talking about a $420,000 difference or a 63.63% price decline. I think everyone can agree that not all cards in a grade are treated equally but this price spread seems way too large to just say don't worry about it at all.

    If you had polled the board I don't think you could have found one person who would have predicted $240,000 for a PSA 8 Mantle. Every month when I get the SMR I see the advertisements from the various dealers who will pay 75% of SMR or VCP depending on who it is. Even if we used the $515,000 that is the current SMR value it is still 53.3% off that number.

    This sure will be interesting to watch.

    Edit: Using the $282,000 number a 57.27% price differential and 45.24%. The buyers premium only shows up when looking at the list not when you click on the item from the lot number.

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    travis ttravis t Posts: 1,185 ✭✭✭

    Hmm. Dave, from what I read on the auction site the final sales price was $282,000 including the 17.5% BP. Correct me if I'm wrong.

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    Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,910 ✭✭✭✭✭

    All of our Live Auction results are archived on our website at www.huntauctions.com and can be found under "Completed Auction Results" sorted by date. You have the choice to view the complete Prices Realized list (which includes the 17.5% buyer's premium) or View the items by lot, which provides a detailed description of each lot along with the hammer price.

    Sold for Price: $240,000.00

    314 1952 Topps #311 Mickey Mantle Rookie (PSA NM-MT 8). Exceptional Mickey Mantle Rookie card remains in a fine state of preservation and ranks among the highest condition grade examples to have surfaced. Crisp and well registered image appears on a card which has sharp corners and edges with centering that ever so slightly favors the lower border. With their flagship issue released in 1952, Topps launched the era in which baseball cards became treasured keepsakes and it is fitting that the Mickey Mantle card has come to be recognized as the defining face of the historic American brand. It is without peer as the most valuable and sought after post-war sports card and it is a privilege to offer one of the finest specimens extant: PSA NM-MT 8 ($300,000-$500,000) $240,000.00

    Seems like $240,000 is the number

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    Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,910 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 17, 2017 10:57AM

    They only add it I see when you look at the list. If you view it by the lot number it doesn't include it for some reason.

    314 $282,000.00

    $42,000 is nothing to sneeze at but still a far cry from the prior levels.

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    lawyer05lawyer05 Posts: 2,141 ✭✭✭✭

    @travis t said:
    I'll give you 3 good reasons:

    a) The centering is not that good. The potential for a half million dollar card at this level would need a better top to bottom feature. My opinion.

    b) Old flip is not beneficial and invokes a thought of why not get it reholdered? So, why wasn't it reholdered for better presentation?

    c) Most glaring of all is the upper left corner. It's damaged. Also detectable wear visible on the reverse. I wouldn't be happy spending a quarter of a million dollars for a damaged corner. It looks like no one else would be either.

    In all fairness, the card DOES have gorgeous color, framing, clarity, surface.....features which would look spectacular on a card with better centering at the grade level. I personally believe the bidders were treating the value of this card as if it were in a PSA 7.5 NM+ slab. Again, just my opinion. I don't think the closing price reflects the reputation of the auction company. Let's see if anyone agrees.

    what he said

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    Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,910 ✭✭✭✭✭

    For whatever reason the buyers were willing to pay closer to the SMR for this Jackie Robinson.

    https://huntauctions.com/live/imageviewer.cfm?auction_num=58&lot_num=316&lot_qual=&closed

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    travis ttravis t Posts: 1,185 ✭✭✭

    @Dpeck100 said:
    They only add it I see when you look at the list. If you view it by the lot number it doesn't include it for some reason.

    314 $282,000.00

    $42,000 is nothing to sneeze at but still a far cry from the prior levels.

    No argument. Just for the sake of accuracy then at least we know what was spent. And the '52T Jackie presents very well. It was worthy of a good hammer price. We could pick it apart and compare opinions like apples to oranges. But it has no bearing on the action for the '52T Mantle, a card which separates itself from the common plots written for high profile auctions.

    Again to be perfectly candid, someone has been done a disservice over the sale of this card. The consignor deserved better. But, then again, maybe the consignor made out like a bandit anyways vs. what was paid to acquire the card in the first place. And speculation will always turn to rolling snowballs.

    The buyer of this card has a potential steal in their hands. Or so it seems.

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    Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,910 ✭✭✭✭✭

    This example leads me to believe it must be very tricky to be a card dealer at the moment.

    When the Clemente started dropping many seasoned vets made the argument on this message board that it was an eye appeal issue. Then nice copies surfaced and the prices kept falling and there was some fresh reason why it wasn't really the market.

    At the end of the day these are commodities that can go up and down and trying to value them can be quite tough. It is one thing if you dabble in cards that are say $100 and then they drop to $72 and the next time they sell for $82. You aren't really out much money.

    But when cards are selling for such a wide range what number do you use to set your buy price at? Steve Hart has a buy list for unopened that he feels comfortable paying at anytime. It appears that number needs to go down when dealing with many of these high profile cards and that is why the term correction I believe is appropriate.

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    muffinsmuffins Posts: 469 ✭✭✭
    edited July 17, 2017 12:39PM

    its actually both.

    terrible listing/timing and correction.

    but i think the notion that this correction is due to "the buying group" will always be laughed off.

    "the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didnt exist"

    eta: however this is an over-correction in my opinion. buyer made out like a bandit.

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    travis ttravis t Posts: 1,185 ✭✭✭

    Regardless of your position, this has been one of the better discussions and debates I've seen here in quite awhile. It will have staying power just because of who is being discussed. I agree that it will be worth paying attention in the immediate future to render more potentially accurate opinions on the topic, economics and and hobby folklore.

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    lawyer05lawyer05 Posts: 2,141 ✭✭✭✭
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    travis ttravis t Posts: 1,185 ✭✭✭

    You prolly don't wanna meet muffins in a dark alley nither.

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    muffinsmuffins Posts: 469 ✭✭✭

    @lawyer05 said:
    devil quotes scare me

    me either. i'm married to his daughter!

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    lawyer05lawyer05 Posts: 2,141 ✭✭✭✭

    personally I don't get the whole MIckey Mantle appeal thingy......... lol

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    tbonewillytbonewilly Posts: 424 ✭✭✭

    okay go ahead and send me the card, I have a use for it... :D:D
    Now if I just had a pair of them, the acoustics would be better

    Ken - Volunteered to work in Florida Keys, now freezing in Ohio
    Work in progress - Unopened Racks/Cello/Wax with star power for Baseball, Football and Basketball
    Collecting unopened 80's boxes and graded packs
    I may be hoarding too much 80's junk wax but I like it!
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    muffinsmuffins Posts: 469 ✭✭✭

    @lawyer05 said:
    personally I don't get the whole MIckey Mantle appeal thingy......... lol

    same goes w the whole sanguillen bubblegumless thingy for me! ;)

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    GoDodgersFanGoDodgersFan Posts: 1,391 ✭✭✭

    Perhaps this sale was an anomaly, but the price difference is huge here. This card is way out of my league. Just a great discussion re role of auction houses, market trends, reholdering of high end cards, and etc. Only time will tell if this sale was a steal. Something tells me the buyer will flip this for a nice profit.

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    packCollectorpackCollector Posts: 2,786 ✭✭✭

    Something that no one has mentioned or seems to realize is that this card was sold in a LIVE AUCTION at the ALL-STAR Game.

    The consignor was expecting that there would be some live bidders with endless bankrolls at the all-star game which is why it was sold the way it was

    This was NOT an auction that ended with a 15 minute or some rule like that which could go on and on forever which surely had an effect on the sale.

    The consignor took a shot that having live bidders bid on impulse was better than having more bidders who had time to think and it ultimately was the wrong decision.

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    @packCollector said:
    Something that no one has mentioned or seems to realize is that this card was sold in a LIVE AUCTION at the ALL-STAR Game.

    The consignor was expecting that there would be some live bidders with endless bankrolls at the all-star game which is why it was sold the way it was

    This was NOT an auction that ended with a 15 minute or some rule like that which could go on and on forever which surely had an effect on the sale.

    The consignor took a shot that having live bidders bid on impulse was better than having more bidders who had time to think and it ultimately was the wrong decision.

    Interesting tidbit. Thanks for the information.

    Joe

    IG: goatcollectibles23

    The biggest lesson I've learned in this hobby, and in life, is that if you have a strong conviction, you owe it to yourself to see it through. Don't sell yourself, or your investments, short. Unless the facts change. Then sell it all.
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    Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,910 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The Live Auction is open for online pre-bidding until Sunday, July 9th at 10pm ET. High Bids & Ceiling Bids placed during the pre-bidding period will be executed competitively during the Live Auction. Additional arrangements for phone & absentee bidding are being accepted at 610.524.0822 or info@huntauctions.com until Friday, July 7th at 5:00pm ET. Please review the Bidding Instructions for a full explanation of the bidding procedures.

    Was the card available for online pre-bidding?

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    lawyer05lawyer05 Posts: 2,141 ✭✭✭✭

    i didn't even know it was being auctioned, for sure i would have snipped it. Speaking about sniping , what sniping service do u recommend ? Been using EZSNIPER but it gets expensive with high priced items.

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    KendallCatKendallCat Posts: 2,986 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Plain and simple this one fell through the cracks, and I will bet a dinner at Gibson's this card will be flipped by the end of the year and sell for a price much closer to the norm.

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    HighGradeLegendsHighGradeLegends Posts: 1,693 ✭✭✭✭

    @KendallCat said:
    Plain and simple this one fell through the cracks, and I will bet a dinner at Gibson's this card will be flipped by the end of the year and sell for a price much closer to the norm.

    Yup!!

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    Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,910 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I have read a few comments that running big cards in advance of the National is not a wise move. Unlike Christmas where many find themselves buying expensive gifts for their loved one's, card collectors are saving up big time it appears for the show and are ready to pounce. I would think they are seeking high end cards such as a PSA 8 Mantle at the show so what would preclude them from looking for high end cards a few weeks out? Curious what the rational of it being a bad time to sell is.

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    TrevTrev Posts: 333 ✭✭✭

    If you are in the market for that caliber card, you know when it comes for sale. The venue that presents it is very much irrelevant imo

    eBay - trevordoveyauctions
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    KendallCatKendallCat Posts: 2,986 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @CrissCriss said:
    Bet your wrong, Kendall. But with your bold claim there's little way to prove it.

    Sold during the AS game, what were they thinking??!!

    If I am someone is getting a giant steak for free and I will even cover the massive desserts they have there. :D

    KC

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    muffinsmuffins Posts: 469 ✭✭✭

    card is being privately offered for $400k.

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    Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,910 ✭✭✭✭✭

    So what is your take on that? Is it a correction since it is 115k below the SMR or just a one off scenario?

    If it isn't a correction the card should be snapped up in seconds at that price I would think.

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    grote15grote15 Posts: 29,573 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @muffins said:
    card is being privately offered for $400k.

    Not a bad profit for a day's work!



    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
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