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The biggest danger to the hobby is ...
ScarsdaleCoin
Posts: 5,327 ✭✭✭✭✭
For the past few years I have preached counterfeit coins / slabs that would undermine consumer confidence. However I feel the biggest threat now lies in the fact that younger people no longer use money as in the past. Apps like Apple Pay, Mastercharge and Venmo have made carrying and using cash as we know it obsolete. The question is not if but becomes how soon and how much collector interest levels drops?
Jon Lerner - Scarsdale Coin - www.CoinHelp.com
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The folks on this board that wear rose colored glasses will disagree with your concern. Young people will turn to coin collecting by the millions as soon as they reach age 30, won't they?
it is plausible that coins will be forgotten and replaced in the future same as stamps.
Apathy by the Secret Service and organizations such as the ANA over enforcement of the Hobby Protection Act has made counterfeiting a growth industry.
Demographics and electronic transactions has affected collecting, but as in stamps, certain classics will go up in value. Coins designed by Robert Scot will always be in demand.
The hobby is just fine.
291fifth, those young people you speak of did collect state quarters, now they are buying trucks, chasing girls, going to college, starting jobs ....... They are kinda busy right now.
Many of those millions will come back.
The hobby is very healthy IMO.
Aren't tens of thousands of people turning 30 everyday?
Fifty years ago I imagine that people had similar concerns about the hobby and how the "kids today are more interested in X" than collecting coins and that the death of the hobby was imminent. This hobby has been around for a long time and I think it would be safe to assume it will be around long after we are gone. Of course, it will have its ups and downs in popularity but it's only natural as interests change and public interest moves onto other hobbies, but that shouldn't stop us collectors from enjoying this hobby while we can. Things will be fine, people will continue to stress and worry about the future of the hobby a hundred years from now and at the end of the day, the future of the hobby really isn't in our hands. People will collect what they enjoy collecting
So long as people collect coins for pleasure, the hobby will be okay.
There's a competitive element to human nature and it's easy to exercise collecting coins.
Your counting on state quarter collectors coming back, Really?
They spent 10 years of their lives collecting this thing. Now it's time to buy trucks, chase girls and go to college. They find their precious quarters are only worth face value.
As they say today "If it doesn't make money, it doesn't make sense"
No I am not counting on state quarters to come back, that is just silly.
I did say that they did collect "state quarters" or in other words ... coins.
They got the collector bug early on, once they have time and resources, then they may pursue higher end coins.
Or maybe they will stay with state quarters .......
People having less discretionary income hurts all "collecting" hobbies.
One could go into endless detail about what is happening (and there would be endless disagreement over each detail suggested), but it looks like harder times, not better times, ahead.
I have a few young acquaintances that are about to turn 30ish soon, and most still
have they're Pokémon Cards
Steve
Whales, sharks and curmudgeons. Not necessarily in that order. Add a fair amount of power mongering plus that additive: greed, and voila. Clear and present danger.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
I've been away from the hobby for a while, but I still think the same issues exist. There's one near term issue... counterfeit coins. They're ubiquitous on ebay to the point that I'm now shying away from purchases of higher end, and even slabbed material on ebay.
Longer term, we need to bring young numismatists into the hobby...
Successful BST transactions with: SilverEagles92; Ahrensdad; Smitty; GregHansen; Lablade; Mercury10c; copperflopper; whatsup; KISHU1; scrapman1077, crispy, canadanz, smallchange, robkool, Mission16, ranshdow, ibzman350, Fallguy, Collectorcoins, SurfinxHI, jwitten, Walkerguy21D, dsessom.
My guess would be North Korea....
Gradeflation
New entrants to the hobby are not hypothetical, they enter every single day. However, it is just about impossible to track coin collector deaths and new collectors to see how they compare. And who knows how these numbers will change in the future.
All I know for sure is my own experience. I collected as a kid 25 years ago and many folks were concerned by the high percentage of old collectors and some were convinced that the collector base was going to take a noise dive in the near future because kids were into Nintendo and Atari and not coins. I stopped collecting for probably 20 years before I found my way back and the concerns are the same, just substitute Xbox for Atari.
I certainly see the cause for concern, but believe that it will be a very long term and slow decline in the size of the collector base and not something that happens quickly.
I know a couple 30 yr olds that used to collect state quarters. Only one of them seems to be into any collectible now. He wants to buy a $15K or so old 1968-1974 Mopar muscle car for enjoyment. No signs of coin demand yet.
I wear those rose colored glasses I guess.
I still have mine and play them with my daughters.
The only thing I don't share is my collection of the "garbage pal kids" .
Many I know that were buying silver coins the last couple years are now electronically gambling buying Bitcoin, Ethereum and other crypto currencies that have skyrocketed lately. Five years of gold, silver, and platinum price drops really killed most coin demand. Those prices need to go up in my opinion before more common coins go back up.
but I'm not dead, I'm getting better, I feel fine, I feel happy...
It is often darkest before the dawn.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
I just do not care!! Those worried about the 'future of the hobby' must be those worried about selling coins... either their collection or as a business. As a collector, I am interested in my collection, not what others - young or old - are collecting. I just don't care. I do care about where I will get the coins I am looking for.. and, maybe they will be come more available and more affordable if all you doom and gloom guys are right. Onward to my next acquisition - THAT is what I care about.
Cheers, RickO
You should care, unless you are planning to be buried with your collection.
I don't care... and I will not be buried with my collection. I do not care what happens to the coins after I die. I care about them now. That is my hobby. Cheers, RickO
The hobby will certainly always be around, but it doesn't take too much of a crystal ball to predict that the value/action will coalesce around the higher end of the spectrum. In the future, I would be floored if we ever see a tenth of the number of people needed to soak up the enormous stockpiles of lower-end coins left over from the hobby's heyday. This is, of course, great for the "pure collector"--the one who isn't concerned about whether their coins will appreciate in the future. For the dealers with huge inventories of common, older stuff--including coins we once considered marquee (1909-S VDB, for example), probably not a rosy future.
I think it's just likely that the market will continue to fragment and that will hurt some more than others. You need hundreds of thousands of Morgan, etc. collectors to absorb all the widgets and that number may drop substantially. EAC, Bust collectors, etc. never had those numbers, couldn't provide for them if they existed so prices may fall (except on stuff I bid on), but the collectors will still be there.
I agree.
The lack of qualified retail buyers, market in tank, corporate downsizing pushing out boomers. A couple of strong retail buyers at shows have experienced the downsizing push and this has doomed their spending. Others have shifted their spending to girls, strip clubbing, sugar dating liquidating numismatic material in process. Carl 62 is financing his sd relationship with a 25 yo girl that moved here from Cali who he met at Covergirls liquidating his coin holdings.
I don't c younger generations putting substantial money into coins either who c the handwriting on the wall and are consumed with video games like GTAO. Corp downzinging, more hostile world of work, advances in AI will make things more challenging in coming decades.
At some point I will liquidate all numismatic material for other projects except the junk which I will give away to any interested heirs.
The recent slide of MS65 dollars to $125 bid, classic Commems flatlined for years are a preview of further declines. Demand will shift to material which can be purchased close to melt which I already see at shows. WPM is doing well to. The sticker fad, a last ditch attempt by the big money people sitting on substantial investment will not save classic coins.
Beyond that no concern over non controllables.
Baby Boomers are the ones that grew up in the 50s and 60s when cash in the form of coins was still powerful in terms of what it could buy (candy bars for a nickel or a dime; comic books for fifteen cents to a quarter). These constitute the richest cohort in history, now moving into retirement in droves, with (most) kids through college and debts paid down.
What happens after they pass from the scene is another issue. But these retiring Baby Boomers still have a lot of potential numismatic heft. Watch what happens if PMs start to convincingly surge.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
This along with the watering down of third party grading guarantees. Plastic brought money into this hobby as it provided some security and stability. It is now doing the opposite. It is revealing when large cohorts refuse to buy a coin without a sticker and basically extra insurance. There is far too much systemic risk in the certified U.S. coin market.
it is reassuring to me that the first response, which states that "We" are wearing rose-colored glasses and ignoring the inevitable, was made by a member who always seems to have something negative to say, no matter what the topic.
and I believe he got it wrong, the age is 40.
I too have been extremely concerned about the counterfeit coins and slabs and their potential to undermine confidence in the entire market. This still worries me.
I also was a bit concerned on the demographics and whether young people are going to step in to carry the torch.
Having recently ventured into the Instagram world, I am somewhat impressed and relieved with the sheer numbers of interested young people- from around the world in coin collecting! I don't know whether the numbers will be enough to offset the great extinction of us baby boomers and our elders, but I am relieved nonetheless.
In some respects, I'm a bit like ricko, though not quite as laid back on the values as I likely will be selling off coins for various reasons at some point down the line.
Ricko's collecting spirit is alive and well in me though! I still find cheap thrills in searching through bank rolls of common stuff and do so quite often.
And more recently, have found enjoyment and very inexpensive fun in pouring through volumes of stamps residing in a local dealers shop. I'm finding great enjoyment in the art and beauty in these tiny wonders. The design and engraving work can be superb and though I used to find them too small to appreciate, I have discovered that it is really a blast to take high quality photos of these and study them on the big screen monitor! Sharing them on Instagram is fun too!
Just the other day, I went through three large notebooks, pulling out dozens of stamps I found attractive and wanting to add them to my eclectic collection. Many were over 100 years old and mint. The total cost for my pile of several dozen cherry picks for aesthetics???
A whopping $10
How's that for cheap entertainment? And all fully in the spirit expressed here by ricko...
I could care less what they're worth!
Happy, humble, honored and proud recipient of the “You Suck” award 10/22/2014
Did somebody say, "STAMPS?"
This is what I did with my stamps.
Some stamps are pretty damn cool.
We're talking about collecting money. I believe it's the oldest hobby around.
I'm with, Ricko. This is my hobby and "I" enjoy it. I've enjoyed it with my father and now with my son and grandson. Where's the problem? Doom and gloom
The biggest risk by far is that young people (by and large) don't have the economic resources to participate on a meaningful level. Too much money in the clutches of far too few people has never been a recipe for any collecting hobby. This will only become more meaningful in the years to come.
The biggest danger to the hobby is ...
GREED.
I think coin collecting is heading in a similar direction to stamp collecting, though I believe the drop-off will not be as severe.
it's a combination of the decline of the physical use of money (coins and bills) for an increasing percentage of people, combined with the fading concept of ownership. I see both trends with young people.
For the latter point: think of Uber, Spotify, Airbnb, etc. People's lives are becoming increasingly electronic, and much less connected to "stuff".
Elon Musk's (of Telsa and SpaceX fame) "Master Plan" offers an interesting glimpse of a possible future: http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-reveals-tesla-masterplan-2016-7
Just think....collectors were probably saying in 1917 that the future of coin collecting might be uncertain because they changed the design on everything but the dollar coin, since 1909 that is.
I think coin collecting will be fine, but that is JMHO.
Later, Paul.
I started at 40 something. Never collected coins as a kid or young adult. I love the hobby
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
In business the greatest worry is the thing you don't see coming...Netflix to Blockbuster, Amazon to Fresh Market...the threat to coin collecting is something that is not even on your radar....
“When I look back on all these worries, I remember the story of the old man who said on his deathbed that he had had a lot of trouble in his life, most of which had never happened.”
– Winston Churchill
I am not certain there is a single biggest danger but more of a cause-effect reaction with afew different scenarios that could be devastating. A cashless society would create even greater power in the banking sector and lead to the loss individual freedom... I will never consent to a cashless society. Should something as unconstitutional as that happen, then what happens to the US coins and currency that was issued for commerce? It would technically serve no real purpose. And that begs the question of whether what exists will have value or will even be permitted to remain in private hands. I know this all reads like the book George Orwell never wrote, but the world seems to be changing. What is being embraced and promoted as convenient and state of the art today will likely have catastrophic consequences.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
Your analogy is great
I love Churchill and that passage is so true.
So many people make bold predictions and love to say I told you so at the first hiccup . People make love to be right. Human nature.
Markets have a habit of making the greatest number people wrong most of the time.
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
People make love to be right.
I presume this is a typo, but it's still POTD material!!
If you were to start collecting Rose Colored Glasses you would find those are getting pretty rare too . Nobody I know has any