Downturn in the general collectables market? Antiques Roadshow.
Shamika
Posts: 18,785 ✭✭✭✭
So I'm watching Antiques Roadshow last night. For those few who are unfamiliar with this popular PBS show, it's a program where people bring items to be evaluated by experts in various fields (furniture, paintings, ceramics, toys, etc). The experts share their knowledge on each item and then give a fair market estimate of value which can sometimes be very surprising.
Anyway, PBS is showing an episode filmed in 2010 with the addition of updated 2017 appraisals being flashed on the screen immediately after the expert mentions the value of each item. A few items had appreciated over the past seven years while others stayed unchanged. However MOST of the items had decreased in value with a few having collapsed.
Afterwards it occurred to me that while we're all concerned about the future of numismatics, could this just be a downturn in the collectables market in general and not coins in specific?
Comments
I like that show, especially the ones with the updated price estimates.
You may have a valid point about collectibles in general.
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We actually went to a taping, and it was really cool.
I noticed that also- a lot of fields showed sharp decreases in value.
2010 was just after the huge stock market meltdown. Alternative assets were at their peak. 7+ years later the stock market has gone straight up (almost). Everyone is a "genius" if they invest in stocks. It's just market cycles. The stock market seems high to me and alternatives seem low.
The Vintage Antiques Roadshow programs usually have a 15 year time differential. Are you sure it was a show from 2010?
That said, the observation you made is valid for virtually all of the Vintage Antiques Roadshow programs. A few items have gone up, many have stayed the same and quite a few have declined. (Be thankful you aren't involved in the pottery, antique toy or "brown" furniture markets.)
Many collectibles fields are experiencing the same thing seen in the current coin market. The "trophy" items are holding their own or increasing while "ordinary" items are falling fast.
Absolutely sure. Following the appraisers estimate which would be flashed on the screen as the 2010 value, the show would then flash the 2017 value about three seconds later.
The majority of collectibles peaked back in the 2006-2008 period along with coins. While a portion of all these markets went higher since then (possibly due the influences of $50 silver and $1900 gold in 2011), it's been mostly downhill ever since. The top 10%, 5%, or 1% , etc. gets the remaining allocated dollars and churns higher in concert with the stock market.
Each coin market peak seems to leave behind a sector that will likely never come back, at least in a lifetime. In the 1964 peak it was the BU roll market, 50-d nickels, etc. In 1980 a whole pile of so-so stuff was left behind. In 1989-1990 gem "common" stuff was left behind. In 2006-2008 another portion of the coin market was left behind....such as choice/gem generic gold coins in the $1 to $10 denominations. What is considered "worthy" or even "fresh" continues to shrink.
Yes and it affects coins.
My offers tapered to what can sell coin for basically sell price above bid plus 10 pct optimistic.
I might offer walk ups up to 80 pct of bid mabe 90 pct of bid for CAC assuming I feel coin actually PQ.
Coin market seems In tank - summer doldrums, crash of MS65 generic dollars to $125 bid (huge market cap loss) overall lack money from people at shows, shift to bullion buying of market (they stocking up on AGB, AGE), and many other issues flatlined like Classuc Commems.
At show last week WPM outsold slabs at my table. I noticed a couple dealers their slabbed inventory CDN plus 10 pct - desperate to sell. I bought some slabbed Morgan's in 63-65 at bid to slightly back of bid from another dealer flipping stuff from shop walkins, etc. some MS69 1/10 AGE / pandas got at 10-15 pct above BV and a couple MS 69 slabbed AGB BV plus 5pct (2 major Bullion dealers at show)I don't think I saw more than 2 or 3 CAC coins at the show in viewing their material walking floor during slow periods.
I kind of agree with the "market cycles" opinions.
Wait a few years until the stock market is viewed as a risky option....and other areas will pop back up again. Might be collectibles, might be metals, might be real estate.
It's been demonstrated before, as I recall, that the markets and coins DON'T move in concert with each other most of the time. But I think there is probably an underlying risk/reward and "available assets" interaction that exists among all "investment options".
I'll still reiterate that I think a wise move is to PRUNE your collection down to ....BETTER... stuff.
I'll leave "better" up to your judgment.
I enjoy the then-vs-now Antiques Roadshow episodes.
I have often noticed watching those shows that there are many parallels between coins and the broader collectibles market. Namely, really special, rare, or otherwise noteworthy items have gone up, while much of the other "stuff" has gone nowhere or down. Using this "only the really special goes up" filter, I'm usually correct at least 75% of the time guessing whether something has gone up or down.
I think that debt levels are directly correlated to collectible markets. Personal debt levels have risen dramatically since the recession (particularly student loans and auto loans) so discretionary spending has decreased proportionately. This affects the broad collectible market. At the top end however, gains have been enormous so new records are still being paid for quality high end coins.
Personally, I feel that there needs to be a deep correction in the markets/economy as a whole in order to purge this massive debt burden. It happened in 2008 with mortgage debt which has grown very slowly since then. Other debt areas have exploded however and need a similar readjustment. It will be painful initially but beneficial in the long run both for collectibles and the economy as a whole.
With that said, in these conditions (or any conditions for that matter) I agree with the sentiment that has been expressed on the boards frequently and recently by Laura/Legends. Quality/eye appealing coins should be sought and will generally do well in the long run.
I agree with 219fifth and topstuf, top end will almost always hold value well.
Another thing to consider is the timeliness of certain collectables. For example, I'm not going to sink a lot of money into Marx brothers items, Mae West stuff, or Abbot / Costello memorabilia because people who remember them are simply passing away. Those markets are literally dying off. Not to be heartless, but it is a factor in some collecting fields.
Your comment on the effect of the passing of the fans is most appropriate. Add Roy Rogers and Liberace to the list. Both once had museums dedicated to their careers. Roy and/or Dale apparently often gave museum tours themselves while it was in Victorville, CA. Several years after the death of Roy and Dale the Roy Rogers museum was closed (I believe it had been moved to Missouri) and all of his memorabilia was auctioned, including Trigger, Bullet and his wallet complete with its actual contents at the time of his death.
Liberace's museum in Las Vegas closed several years ago. I don't know what happened to its contents. (Anyone know?)
All glory is fleeting.
There's simply too much junk in the world, and more produced every single day.
The good, old, real stuff not "made for collectors" but meant to be used, that somehow survived, and is rare, has and will be fine.
The new, the common, and which suffered little to no attrition, is on a death march.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
2006-2008 was also the peak of the mid-century modern furniture boom. Now with the advent of knock-offs, full exposure of all minor and major designer's works, an inflow of marketable generic Danish furniture and aging of the pool of buyers for whom this stuff was a touchstone of their youth, it's hard to move much of what was hot.
Some of this sound familiar?
I like that show as well. I watched a very similar show where they showed the appraisals from 2002 and then updated for 2017. Many items had absolutely tanked. Very interesting to see.
Looking for Top Pop Mercury Dime Varieties & High Grade Mercury Dime Toners.
Well 2010 was the beginning of the height of American Pickers and antique collectibles craze. The current trend seems to be shifting away from "old junk" and back to modern chic which I'm sure depresses the bulk of antiques roadshow type material
I think it boils down to "what the kids are into". Comic books have screamed upward. So have action figures. 20 years ago, that's what kids were doing...not many snapping coins into Whitmans back then. From what I've read, with the exception of these throwback relics of youth, the kids don't care. They especially don't care about antiques and don't want them because they take too much space to store. I think in general, smaller items will do better because they are portable.
I do think rising income levels across the oceans will help bail us out to some degree. Everyone wants a piece of Americana.
IMHO, huge resources should be put into getting kids interested and getting foreigners interested in U.S. stuff. Huge resources.
My currency "Box of Ten" Thread: https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1045579/my-likely-slow-to-develop-box-of-ten#latest
My parents lived in England for many years, North Sea Oil. They hit the Estate type sales, as a lot of old mansions, etc. were being liquidated.
Old English furniture had basically no market in England, as it was WAY out of style, and homes were much smaller. Dining room sets were at the total bottom of the pile, as most home did not even have a dining room, and this is happening in the US also.
My dad picked up a group, 8 - 10 old guns, not functional, so it was OK to sell in England. I pulled one of them out, a late 1780's English Brown Bess, complete, in good shape. I cleaned it a bit, and it makes a great wall hanger, see picture. It oges great with some ALSO out of style, pewter and ceramic plates that I picked up for $10, but it all fits an American Revolutionary War theme.
There also was a 1770's pistol converted from flint to cap, that apparently had traveled in the Middle East, based on the engravings. He paid $37 for all of it, as it was just not something popular in England. If they could have figured out how to bring it back, there was a early 1800's American walnut portable organ, No sale at $1.50
Bottom line, a lot of previously collected stuff was no longer in demand, most of it will never be in demand in England compared to the quantity available with the number of people who want it.
I have my first car, a 1930 Model A Ford, bought in 1969. I fixed it up, drove it in high school, stored it when Uncle Sam came knocking, and get it out once in a while. The market for those has some legs, but it getting smaller and smaller, as almost anyone who EVER had one, or had a (grandfather, father, whatever) who had one, either has already got one, or has reached the point in life where they cannot drive anymore anyhow. Due to this, more and more are hitting the market every year, more than can be absorbed at a decent price.
Oh well.
Ever increasing demand for "treasures". Ever decreasing demand for non-treasures. ( but still lots of promotions so some can make a buck. )
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Your comment on the Model A Fords is dead on what I have been told by the Model A enthusiasts I have talked to at the Woodward Dream Cruise. The Model A enthusiasts are nearly as old as the cars themselves (1927-1931) and are passing from the scene.
Has anyone noticed trends in collector cars? I kick myself for not buying the 1971 Mustang years ago fir the princely sum of $1250...
In 1980... from the original owner.
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Muscle cars with big block engines are hot.
In most areas of collectibles the rare are in demand. The not so rare, not so much.
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
My first car was a 1971 Mustang.
I bought it in 1979 for $1,250.
Lots of fun times in that car.
She is long gone now.
My wife "suggested"after we married that we get a more sensible car.
Demographics is a significant concern and partial explanation for the downturn. I am still not convinced that certain types of collectibles resonate well with younger folks that seem to have little if any interest in the past. In tems of art, design, quality and craftsmanship, the best days for items that exemplify those features are behind us... Sad but that seems to be the way it is.
If it isn't some slick state of the art technological gadget with all these features... Well... I think the point has been made that people and interests change over time.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
My daughter likes to watch Antiques Roadshow with me so she can make the sound effect they play when the estimated price drops.
A lot of the focal items on that show are purposely of local interest, and I suspect those markets are much more subject wo wide swings than more universally collected items.
Many of their auction estimates are meaningless. Numismatics are totally different, much easier to do technical and pricing analysis. I'm just curious how Antiques Roadshow items actually did at auction.
For those of you who think that if stocks crash, it will lead to a upsurge in value of collectible assets, I'd like what you are smoking. ;~)
I deserve a bigger kick than that! I passed on a Shelby GT350 Convertible with 51,000 miles on the clock. It was like new and loaded. I could have bought that car for $3,000 around the same time!
Ah...what about disposable income ? How come no one here will admit that if your trying to survive, you do not have the extra money to buy stuff but food and shelter. I know I started collecting as a kid, had to get an education, raised a family and only periodically dragged out the shoe box of coins to take look and then put it back in the closet until I was near 50 years old! Thats when I had some extra money. Then I retired, and the extra money dried up again. I think the "class" of collectors on this form may not necessarily reflect whats going on in the collectors market as we still have some cash to play with. Flame away!
WS
Afterwards it occurred to me that while we're all concerned about the future of numismatics, could this just be a downturn in the collectables market in general and not coins in specific?
Even this question reflects the rose-colored glasses that collectors wear when looking at the objects of their desire.
Yes, collectibles, in general, are going down in value. Sure there are exceptions. Sure it may appear that the high quality, most desirable stuff fares better in tough times but if the "good" stuff outperforms the common stuff consistently then won't the common stuff actually become a better investment?
Consider the old axiom "Buy the best you can afford". Had you purchased gem type coin sets like 3 cent pieces, shield nickels, even Barbers during the 1980s-90s instead of common circ pieces, you would have lost much money. Buying he best here didn't work out financially, did it? The junk grades have doubled or tripled during this period. Buying the higher grade pieces in many series several decades ago has resulted in financial losses for many.
So, yes, coins are going down in value in general along with everything else. But of course you are smarter than the group and can continue collecting because you know better than everyone else. You know exactly what to buy and what to avoid, right? Well, everyone can't be right and if everyone decides to chase just the "cream of the crop" won't this area of numismatics become inflated in price/value compared to other areas?
Think about it.
My favorite collectible that I bought and kept.
1968 Shelby GT500, 428 engine, 4 speed, Arrest Me Red!
Disposable income is certainly a factor in the market. Also, the age cycle has an effect as does the technological revolution. That being said, there is still an overall, healthy interest in collecting - not just coins. I go to flea markets, antique shops etc., and I am surprised at the young people there.... I would expect the older generations for the reasons outlined above, but the 20's, 30's and 40's seem very well represented.. at least in this area. I see here the general consensus that the coin market is down... OK, since I do not sell coins, I would not see this. I do, however, buy coins... and from that perspective, I can say that the prices have not yet recognized a down market. Looking forward to this when it happens... Cheers, RickO
I just drooled on my keyboard.
One of the data points that's missing from the ARS comparisons, is how many more (if any) came on the market.
Say for instance, some obscure piece of memorabilia priced at some high dollar amount is shown. 50 million people around the world see the show, it's not so obscure anymore, and a few of those viewers now realize that thing that's been sitting on their mantle or up on their wall is worth some bucks. They all come into the market at roughly the same time, and would take the price down.
Fine art and singular historical documents always seem to do well, an item in a well established, known market stays about the same, but some of the more obscure stuff always seems to go down. And ARS really likes to show the obscure stuff.
Define "Fine Art". Is it anything more than what the "eight New York critics" have given their blessing to?
Arrest me red... That's funny!
Yes, lol. Stuff like paintings from known artists, Tiffany lamps and jewelry, authentic folk art (which probably doesn't fall under "fine art", but it does from my point of view), etc.
My Mom drove a 1968 red convertible Mustang in the early 1970s. After it got a little older and developed some rust problems on the undercarriage, she sold it to a neighbor for $100.
That car is super-class. I can't forgive Slash (of Guns and Roses) for driving one off a cliff in a music video. Even if it was only pretend.
I drove a '66 mustard yellow 289 for a while, until my brother wrecked it out. A friend in high school had an early fastback with the 4-speed Muncie manual.
There's a Shelby Cobra club here in town, it's a trip to see seven or more of them at once in the same place. The heck if I know how many are kit cars.
The first car I owned was a 1967 Mustang which I bought used in 1972. It was great fun to drive when it was running well ... unfortunately, that wasn't very often. The cars of that era were problem plagued rust buckets. I have no fond feelings for them.
Learned to drive in a 65 Mustang my dad had, white with red interior, all stock 289, just a super car. He wouldn't let me have it, i would have wanted to put mag wheels, cut the dash to replace the am radio, paint it black, etc.
Ended up driving a midnight blue camaro in high school and college.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Buy what you love and what doesn't make you lose sleep at night and you'll be fine in any market. Collectors are wired differently and we all have a itch to scratch. I collect many things and overall have done fine.
Wine has always been amongst my top passions. For every case, futures or bottle I buy I sell some when the profit is there to pay for the next vintage. Most of my greatest opportunities came friom allocations I was able to pick up during the financial crisis. Many people were forced to give up their allocations and I was able to get on lists I was unable to before as they were over subscribed. There is always opportunity. Most come in a downmarket.
As far a coins goes I'm slowly moving out of federal coins and going into medals and other niche items of historical interest. Album fillling and collecting by date mint mark sets seems to the most susceptible to further down turns in an aging market for obvious reasons.
Lastly, while some of my friends have been doing the 25k vacations and 50k country club yearly memberships the last 20 years I've been forgoing that and putting my mad money into my hobbies. I can't afford to do all of the above and have money for my hobbies so that's where I made my bed.
I get upset when a stock I own goes south. I never get upset when a collectable may decrease in value that I had the joy of owning.
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
With people like this roaming around, is it a surprise the overall collectibles market is tanking?
https://youtube.com/watch?v=kyhCOPh48ew
'dude
Downturn in the general collectables market?
the long answer is confusing, the short answer is simple --- the economy is not in real good shape and hasn't been for almost 10 years now. maybe people like those of us that populate this forum are doing well, but if you consider the age group from 18-35, those entering the job market and those who should be establishing themselves in the economy, things are pretty below average.
FromMyLoftyPerch it could be cleared up in a single simple way: our Government could stop dragging their feet, pull together and pass a massive Infrastructure Bill. all the "America First" bs coming out of Washington really gets me chirping because it is true but only seems to be talk that can't get acted upon.
But I'm not dead... I'm getting better, ...I feel fine,..., I think I'll go for a walk, I feel happy....
I am still actively restoring my 1930 Model A Ford cabriolet convertible. Kids in the parades love them, especially if you throw out candy and honk the ahooga horn. I guess it is like some of my coins, it doesn't really matter to me what there worth if I get enjoyment from them.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
I'm going heavy into velvet Elvis pictures.
Something with staying power.
Beauty AND rarity.
I enjoy watching the show and saw it the other night. They give some great tips on how to identify certain items. It was interesting how there was a big difference in the value of some items. I'm actually thinking about taking the robe I found to one of their shows when they are in the area. Anyone know when they're going to be in the Pittsburgh area ?
Old 70's black light posters are moving up in value... especially in WA., OR, CO, NV.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Then the market might be oversaturating.
How about pogs?