CoinWeek Legend Market Report – Long Beach Coin Show Report - HOW TO MAKE A GOOD MARKET LOOK BAD
Goldbully
Posts: 17,941 ✭✭✭✭✭
Legend Market Report – Long Beach Coin Show Report
HOW TO MAKE A GOOD MARKET LOOK BAD
By Laura Sperber – Legend Numismatics ......
Have a miserable Long Beach Show and Auction and then repeat and do the same thing in Baltimore in two weeks.
The Long Beach show was the culmination of everything wrong.
First, the majority of East Coast dealers did not attend. With Baltimore only two weeks away... Why? Of course the West Coast dealers will skip Baltimore too. The auction was probably the weakest in 20+ years. Fresh material is gone again. Now we are clearly in the summer doldrums. The crowd of collectors Thursday at the show was very small.
The last nail in the coffin? Grading was tight to the point dealers can’t sell their coins (big losses if they sell) and or they did not submit, keeping money tied up. All this just looks bad and makes the market feel bad. Save for a few hardy contrarians, the market will be in small funk probably through the ANA Show in July.
From our point of view, the market is alive and VERY healthy. BUT, we spent 40 years building up the amazing collector base we have. It's all about demand--specifically demand for REAL quality. We never made up the fact we had $22 million plus in Want Lists. Over the past two weeks we got VERY lucky. We did HUGE business (millions of dollars) because some cool deals fell in our lap (we also bought and sold a $10 1913S PCGS MS65 CAC - a $200,000.00+ coin). So in our world, our market was very much alive and well. We do know if great coins appeared like they did in March that activity would be booming for everyone.
Now we are back to blah retreads, which cause people to go away until something exciting comes along again (usually around ANA). Don’t worry, though. When our supply of cool coins runs out (probably by the end of the month), we’ll be mere mortals again and agonizing with everyone else about how slow the market is and how much money we're losing (although we will have had a record first half of the year).
Overall, our Long Beach show was okay. We paid our costs of the show and that was it. However, we only did TWO sales to collectors. As we said before, the crowd was small. We totally agree with the East Coast bunch staying home. We come out to say hi to our West Coast customers and to show auction lots. The good thing was when we got home and started posting coins Friday - we sold several coins within minutes of posting! Really nice coins are selling.
Forgot to mention, we went out early for the PRE Long Beach Goldberg sale of Mid-date Large Cents. Yet again, we came home with very bruised egos. No question Legend represents some of the biggest copper buyers on earth (our Pogue purchases prove that). Yet again, true GEM Large Cents were super strong. Save for one rip (1C 1824 PCGS MS65BN - we paid $11G hammer), we got blown away on half of what we came to buy. And we are beyond strong. We only bought two coins for inventory and they were sold before we got home (one was the 1824 1C).
Can't say how the rest of the regular sale did.
In the end, sometimes it's all about securing the trophy regardless of price (we’re still smarting over losing on the 1C 1852 PCGS MS66+RD in Pogue). The many new collectors we see simply think great coins are too cheap, so they pay strong to get what they want.
CURRENT WANT LIST
We are aggressively seeking ALL PCGS+CAC ONLY Cameo and Deep Cameo coins in 65 and higher. We will still look at NGC coins, but our acceptance rate is low and CAC is a must. We have several collectors now building Choice and GEM PR Liberty Seated 10C-$1 sets, plus of course ALL Proof Barbers and Seated/Trade/Proof Morgan Dollars (the dollars can be PR64 and higher). Sorry we will NOT tolerate ANY haze, spots, or cloudy toning. The mirrors must be clear. We pay top dollar for real Cameos and Ultra Cameos.
Like everyone else, we need $10+$20 GEM Proof gold 65 and higher. Here too, no haze in the mirrors. Will take Matte Proof $10+$20 too PCGS CAC ONLY.
Still need that $20 1907 Wire Edge High Relief in MS66 or higher. HELP please - our customer is getting slightly grumpy!!! MUST BE PCGS CAC ONLY. In fact, we'll take two!
NEWPS
This week we're posting some exceptional NEWPS. For a coin to make our web site, it MUST have the following credentials: be of TRUE and HIGH-END quality. That means if we offer a PR68 Morgan, it's not going to be a lifeless or hazed up piece. A coin MUST be PCGS CAC. Face it - the market is not as liquid for ANYTHING else. While a few people are jealous or do not like CAC, one thing CAC guarantees you won’t get is a doctored coin. Last, every coin we post MUST have great eye appeal. We are talking eye appeal that you do not have to imagine. Beautiful and true quality coins maintain liquidity the best and do increase in value.
We do NOT hype our coins to sell them. You can ALWAYS count on it when we say we really LOVE a coin or that has wild colors, you will get nothing less. When it comes to absolute quality and eye appeal, other dealers can claim what they want - Legend delivers the goods! Plus, we price our coins predicated on what we pay, which is totally predicated on the quality (sorry, we're not for price buyers).
Maybe that's why we sell over $35 million a year in coins. We never stop aggressively seeking the top 5% of all coins in the market place. So with that info, enjoy browsing our NEWPS!
ALL NEWPS ARE NOW POSTED
Our Fed-Ex from the show was misdirected, so the balance of coins will go up next week.
Highlights of This Week's Offerings:
3cs 1868 PCGS PR67 CAMEO CAC bean - An LSS favorite 25C 1894 PCGS PR68 CAC bean - A GH favorite $1 1892 PCGS PR67 CAMEO CAC bean - PCGS POP 3; really rare
As you all know we always strive to offer coins for every ones tastes and budgets.
LEGEND AUCTIONS
www.legendauctions.com
Get ready! This Thursday at 10 PM eastern our June Premier Sessions Sale closes. There are some really special quality coins including a super fresh and unmessed-with MS Indian Set in choice to GEM. The sale ends with an unopened box of CC GSA Morgans! Some really fresh and exciting stuff; this is not your typical dumpy Internet Only auction, we promise. Be ready to bid!
THE JULY SALE
OMG! We believe it is our BEST overall quality sale to date. We have more FRESH and GEM coins then EVER!
We’ll start with the amazing 1994 Collection--a monster (and we mean Monster) set of coins we handpicked and placed with a collector in 1994. The Proof Lincoln Cents are some of the finest ever, and are totally virgin.
Of course the highlight is the $20 1909 PCGS PR66 CAC--an amazing coin.
There are other coins in the deal too, including a gorgeous 50C 1864 PCGS PR66 CAC and some out-of--this-world PR 20C pieces. This is a deal that will more than prove, if you buy TRUE quality+eye appeal and hold, that you WILL make a lot of money! It also happens to be one of Legend Numismatics favorite collections.
This sale is a Morgan Dollar lovers dream. We have white to the best toners ever (The final Northern Lights selection). We have not added up all the Morgan lots, but we promise, there are Morgans for ALL tastes and budgets! A reminder, this is the final session for the Northern Lights Collection, and we've saved the very best for last: the $1 1880S PCGS MS68+ CAC will be the final Northern Lights coin to sell. We expect it to sell for a world-record price. Be ready!
Some individual special pieces to be sold:
1C 1814 PCGS MS65+ BN CAC bean - Unreal! 1C 1909 INDIAN PCGS PR66+ RD CAMEO CAC bean - Now that's rare 1C 1914 PCGS PR67 RB CAC bean - A new to the market amazing toned GEM 3CS 1866 PCGS PR67 CAMEO CAC bean - Killer colors 10C 1894 PCGS MS68 Superb in every respect 25C 1853 A/R PCGS MS66 CAC bean - Good luck finding another 25C 1897 PCGS PR67 DCAMEO CAC bean - This coin defines the world ULTRA 50C 1797 PCGS XF45 CAC bean - Try finding one of these this nice! 50C 1839 REEDED EDGE PCGS MS65 CAC bean OGH - Superb! 50C 1898 PCGS PR67+ CAMEO CAC bean - Magnificent colors plus super high end $1 1870CC PCGS MS62 - From a STD Dollar specialists estate $1 1878CC TRADE PCGS MS64 CAC bean - Off the market about 15+ years and from an estate $1 1881S PCGS MS68+ CAC bean - A date you never see in real MS68+ $1 1891CC PCGS MS65 DMPL CAC bean - WOW! $1 1892S PCGS MS64 CAC bean - A fresh coin to the market and totally original $2.5 1836 Block PCGS MS64+ CAC bean - Magnificent $5 1823 PCGS MS63+ CAC bean - An awesome coin $10 1908 PCGS PR66 CAC bean - The real deal! $20 1878 PCGS MS64 CAC bean - Another long off the market coin $1 J-1115 1871 PCGS PR66 RB CAC bean - Godzilla! 25C HAWAII PCGS PR67 CAMEO CAC bean - Simply amazing. The finest known! 1C-$1 1858 PCGS PR Set - ALL matched original
We are NOT kidding when we say that EVERY coin in this sale is a highlight. We have many more coins we could have posted. Be prepared for some strong to record-breaking bidding!
If you have any questions please contact Julie Abrams at julie@legendauctions.com or Greg Cohen at greg@legendauctions.com.
More information about this incredible sale will be posted in the next few days. We expect to go live possibly by the end of the week.
Stay tuned!
https://www.coinweek.com/recent-articles-video/legend-market-report-long-beach-coin-show-report/
edited to add: Of note.......We are aggressively seeking ALL PCGS+CAC ONLY Cameo and Deep Cameo coins in 65 and higher. We will still look at NGC coins, but our acceptance rate is low and CAC is a must.
Comments
"Sorry we will NOT tolerate ANY haze, spots, or cloudy toning. The mirrors must be clear. We pay top dollar for real Cameos and Ultra Cameos....PCGS CAC ONLY."
I don't know how to interpret that other to say they are looking for bright white, and likely dipped out CAMs and DCAMs. Any fully original gem seated proof I've ever seen, including strong Cams, have all had some type of haze, spots, cloudy toning. Not even sure how you can get there without dipping first. The most original of gem proofs usually have some cloudiness, though the mirrors aren't really affected. And over 50 yrs, I'd expect most of the current generation of CAM/DAMs to tone back, many with spots showing. It sure is telling to hear that the acceptance rate for NGC CAM/DCAM CAC coins is low....(plastic trumps coin). There's trouble in River City when a worthy and desirable "NGC" coin has "low acceptance" as the rule....something I previously wrote about as early as spring 2009.
Did I really just read about a major dealer complaining about the LB and Balty shows while having their best 1st half of the year ever. And it's the fault of the grading services being tight? 99.997% of all the coins ever TPG graded are still in their holders. How does what was graded in the last 3-4 weeks (0.003%) affect an ENTIRE market? And that doesn't even include previously graded "big" coins going in for another round of regrades, crosses, and crack outs. Should any single month at the TPG's overshadow the 360+ months that the TPG's have already logged?
I thought the point of TPG grading was to ensure the coins were graded right....not necessarily so the big dealers can make money on flipping them? Am I missing something here? If dealers can't sell their coins because grading is tight, what was wrong with the grade originally assigned? Or if the coin is still raw, can't they make money selling it raw again? That's how the old market used to work. When a 3-4 week period of liberal TPG grading occurs, do we read about that being the driver behind the next LB or Balty show being strong? Of course not. It's only "tight" grading that gets commented on.
Fresh material is "gone again." I'd love to read a dissertation on the ebb and flow of "fresh" material. And to all those buyers of "fresh" coins out there. The day after the purchase, your coin is no longer "fresh." Just wait another 10 yrs. Now if the TPG's and auction houses are responsible for making this good market look bad in June/July 2017....then give some extra credit to this market report for piling on.
""""We will still look at NGC coins, but our acceptance rate is low and CAC is a must.""""
The CAC alone is not good enough?
I love reading Laura's reports...and RoadRunner's posts even more!!!
Nope, nor is it on PCGS coins. Legend strives to deal in A quality for the grade coins and CAC stickers A and B quality for the grade coins.
Which is not to say that rarity doesn't rule in the end
A bigger blow to the market than I thought if only PCGS "A" level coins (ie high end) are now the only truly worthy ones. PCGS "B" and "C" and generally most NGC now on the "pass" list? That's about 17% of the market still being worthy.
The next question is that one person's "A" level coin might be the next guy's "B." Since CAC doesn't differentiate, how do you know? Seems to be it is just an opinion of the current owner. A true "A" level coin is just marking time until it can be upgraded to a PCGS "C" or "B" coin. Then you have the time issue where today's "B" level coin, is a candidate to become tomorrow's "A" level coin.
Would it be better if CAC used different stickers for A and B coins?
There's already a gold bean for "A+" coins. Why not separate A and B coins as well?
I admit...I stopped reading after the common whine of "The last nail in the coffin? Grading was tight to the point dealers can’t sell their coins ".
You know what, as a collector, I don't give a flying "F" about that. I've paid over guide for the grade on the coin, IF I thought it was better. I don't like LOOSE grading. I am sure dealers SELLING don't mind LOOSE grading, but they complain when buying. I am also sure they don't complain WHEN BUYING if the seller experienced too tight grading.
Things are what they are. If you truly believe, and are correct, that the coin is a better grade than the TPGS gave it, then there should be some buyer out there that agrees and will pay up as well. If not, then maybe you were part of the problem living, and dying, but the grade on the insert.
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
The gold bean doesn't normally identify an A+ coin. I merely states that the coin in the opinion of CAC is of at least "B" quality for the next grade higher. It doesn't have to have exceptional eye appeal either. A truly A+ coin is just biding time until it becomes a C or B coin one grade higher. It would be interesting if CAC started identifying A and B level stickered coins.
I don't think the premiums for a CAC 65A level coin would be all that high enough to preclude it from becoming a PCGS MS66C level coin, and likely worth more money as such. The gold bean does do it. But so few coins (under 0.005%) get a gold bean as to make it somewhat irrelevant for nearly all market participants.
Once again, a decade later, the meaning of a CAC opinion needs to explained as the simple two bean system is much more complicated than it initially appears.
The CAC system is not that complicated as it identifies only 3 levels of quality:
That's it. CAC doesn't do anything else but make a market for some of the coins they sticker.
It's what the coin market does with CAC's opinions that makes it VERY complicated...to the point where you'd be hard pressed to find any 2 people in the world (who don't work for CAC) that would agree on market pricing effects and influences.
This is interesting.
Let's say:
Let's take an example with the following coins:
We have the following:
Then we have the case:
So the end result is:
Sigh.
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
The above is not a CAC case. CAC doesn't identify A+ coins. Dealers tend to do that, to aid in the sale of said coins.
An A+ coin is currently only a dealer's or collector's opinion, not CAC's. What are the odds of that dealer being able to consistently identify A+ level coins out of the green stickered ones? If I were to review any dealer's offerings of "A+" level coins, I'm sure I would reject a considerable percentage of them for being nothing more than "B" level coins.
For me, I'd take the MS64 Gold Bean nearly every time over a MS64 A+ coin....at the same price. About the only exception would be classic commem or Morgan toners where the level of eye appeal can effectively jump the coin 2 grades higher. At times, that CAC gold could be 2 grades higher.
Yes, A+ isn't a CAC case.
I'm trying to say that if you are going for A coins as Legend does, you cannot go by a Gold or Green bean since they can both be B coins, at different grades.
I'm beginning to think that a pinned thread should exist for all things related to CAC.
And I guess I'm trying to say that if a dealer's goal is to go for truly A+ coins, and do it accurately, they wouldn't automatically eliminate nearly all non-CAC coins, and most NGC-CAC'd coins. No doubt that many NGC-CAC'd coins are truly A+ coins. So, going "after them," is merely an opinion.
And that would include Market Reports which are highly hinged to that market.
The market generally rewards PCGS CAC coins with higher values. When CAC was first launched, it wasn't certain this would be the case but I believe this turned out to be the case before Legend said they were PCGS CAC. One coin at a time, there may be nice NGC CAC coins, but Legend needs to run their business on volume, not one coin at a time, so I'm guessing pitching PCGS CAC may help scale their business.
For it to make sense for Legend to change their tune, collectors and dealers may need to first start pricing NGC CAC coins the same as PCGS CAC.
PCGS coins have brought more than NGC coins from 1998-2008....before CAC. So it was a no brainer that PCGS CAC coins would bring more money too. In fact by as early as January 2009 (FUN auctions) I watched PCGS CAC gem type coins bring up to 25-40% more than NGC CAC'd coins. One would think that at least 30-40% of all CAC'd coins are NGC. So that's a large demographic to ignore....it's certainly not a "one coin at a time" thing. If any dealer wanted to run their operation on NGC-CAC only coins, they'd have a huge volume to choose from. PCGS coins have consistently brought more money than NGC coins somewhere in the 1990-1998 time frame. Hard to say for sure when that transformation took place. With CAC on the scene, the spread has only widened for both stickered and unstickered coins...not the effect I anticipated for stickered NGC coins.
When CAC came on the scene, there was discussion and speculation about whether it would even the pricing for stickered coins across TPGs, but that didn't happen as mentioned.
As I wrote in my show report, I saw some very expensive material I could not afford, and some material I liked which imo was 20% overpriced. I also saw five 1849 Half Cents in MS 64 BN, and MS 65 BN. The grading on these five coins was all over the place. The NGC 4 was the nicest coin of the lot, imo nicer than the PC and NGC MS 64 BN.
There could have been nice material there that didn't interest me which was priced to sell. I will say this for Legend's upcoming / current auction. The 1814 Half Cent is a monster coin. It's the nicest Classic I've ever seen.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
CAC needs a brown bean
For the rejects I suppose? That would reinforce the false notion that CAC rejects are all crap.
Might have trouble finding two folks at CAC that agree.
The coin market....that is what it is all about today.... sure, if there are buyers, there must be sellers (and vice versa)...However, more and more, threads are about the market and not the coin. Since I am not in the 'business', I really do not care about market cycles - unless coins get cheaper, which is rarely the case. I do find it humorous to see a complaint about 'tight grading'....Really?? Cheers, RickO
I agree with Laura on tight grading (put me on an island). In several threads I've stated that it as been tight the last 3-4 months. I just don't see grade-flation as a systemic thing (sure a few coins here/there but that's just the law of averages). I see a bunch of old overgraded material in the market but that's cause the old material is constantly picked over -- I don't see much (if any) overgraded new material...
+1
Market cycles...tight grading this week...clear mirrors...this stuff is over my head or not relevant...I felt like I was reading a dealer to dealer newsletter...
A silver bean for A coins would really set the market ablaze!
At the end of the day, it is all Just an Opinion. Intelligent minds can differ and some individual's opinion counts more in the marketplace, for good or for ill. For sight seen coins, it is all about your own opinion IMHO.
I have also been roasted on grades lately.
I have been a loyal reader of the Legend's Market Reports and Hot Topics (though none of those in a while now) and I find them to be insightful to a point. I'm sure few of you would argue that Legend's perception of the market and the types of the coins they like are necessarily what everyone else likes. But in a business where grading being one of the the most important tipping points; is subjective, that's just par for the course. So I always find it amusing that people insist on grinding the axe against what Legend says because they always seem to be the only firm singled out again and again. Especially considering one can't refute that Legend consistently isn't afraid to step up for the best coins for their clients which shows faith from their clients that they must know what they are doing in the first place.
Andrew Blinkiewicz-Heritage
I'm confused. So is grade inflation rampant or is grading tight? Or does it swing wildly from month to month?
Supposedly gradeflation cycles with market cycles, i.e. grading tightens when the market is soft. I'm not enough of a player to know if that's happening this time. Your mileage may vary.
LOL ..Long Beach was OK ?? covered their costs
So should the brown sticker look like this?
ANA LM
USAF Retired — 34 years of active military service! 🇺🇸
Tight grading?? .. maybe because buyers stopped paying up ?
It swings wildly depending on whether certain dealers and collectors above most of our tax brackets are having a good or bad day/week/month/year.....
ANA LM
USAF Retired — 34 years of active military service! 🇺🇸
And the follow-up question: Which is BAD?!
People, (including from Legend), have been complaining about loose grading for awhile. Now, apparently, tight grading is a problem we all have to worry about.
(Face it....collectors and dealers just like to complain, and leave it at that).
In my post above, I meant to say that an 1849 Half Cent in an NGC MS 64 BN holder to me looked superior to an 1849 Half Cent in an NGC MS 65 BN holder, and to another 1849 Half Cent in a PCGS MS 65 BN holder. This sort of thing leads to uncertainty, confusion, frustration, and a reluctance to buy anything because of it.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
I was going to type out a reply....... but it almost feels like we've all been baited to jump aboard another incomprehensible market report bandwagon.
Basically I agree with Ricko's thoughts.
RE:
I thought the point of TPG grading was to ensure the coins were graded right....not necessarily so the big dealers can make money on flipping them? Am I missing something here? If dealers can't sell their coins because grading is tight, what was wrong with the grade originally assigned? Or if the coin is still raw, can't they make money selling it raw again? That's how the old market used to work. When a 3-4 week period of liberal TPG grading occurs, do we read about that being the driver behind the next LB or Balty show being strong? Of course not. It's only "tight" grading that gets commented on.
Yep. Fits someplace in the greed and special treatment continuum...? Authentication and grading must be based on consistency, stable standards, and the willingness to reinforce these with all customers at all times.
I don't know where to start...............so I won't. Laura needs another uber wealthy client to make things all better.
Well I certainly agree most of the prices for the better copper in the Goldberg auction was strong, even in the shallower end that I fish in.
When a deal says they can only sell PCGS + CAC coins, I hear a few things: 1) They can't buy unstickered coins at a reasonable price below what they'd sell it at 2) They want to enhance their image of only dealing in high end material by very loudly stating that they only like high end material. 3) Eye Appeal matters on the high end of the market. I find all three believable.
IG: DeCourcyCoinsEbay: neilrobertson
"Numismatic categorizations, if left unconstrained, will increase spontaneously over time." -me
I would add that what this might also be saying is that their clients prefer to pay a premium for reducing downside risk of a) having their high end/top pop kind of material being later crammed down, and/or b) devaluation of their coin upon a future sale. Net-net, you pay a premium up front, to mitigate downside risk, and potentially recover that premium back at sale, as opposed to not paying a premium up front, and potentially having significant downside risk upon future sale. Essentially PCGS + CAC is a pre-paid insurance policy that can be rationalized (e.g. explained away as something else) in any way the buyer/seller choose to rationalize it. Like, we only buy PCGS & CAC because these are the best coins, or because we think these coins will appreciate in value the most, or because we only deal in the absolute high end, yada yada...
I thought Laura was retiring?
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
....I though she was outgoing....
See, now you've opened a door that probably shouldn't have been opened....
They buy unstickered material from private collectors and auctions like most of us. They submit to CAC just like anyone does and they whine just like anyone else does when they don't sticker. They just choose not to sell them on their retail site with rare exception. It's a business model that works for them. They run their auction site on a different business model.
FWIW I've sold a handful of Legend CAC coins over the years. I've made money on every single one of them. Same with CRO for that matter.
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Until it doesn't.