Not High POP, No CAC Sticker - Super High Prices. What's going on?
BillJones
Posts: 34,837 ✭✭✭✭✭
Yesterday I promised you that I would cite examples of the super high prices that result every time I place a bid, from last night’s auction. Here are my examples.
I was bidding on two lots last night, an 1877 Twenty Cent Piece in PCGS PR-63 and an 1839-C $2.50 gold in PCGS AU-50.
The 1877 Twenty Cent Piece in PCGS PR-63 has a “Coin Facts’ catalog value of $5,000. Previously this issue had sold for a high $ 6,269. Last night it sold for $ 14,100. I bid $ 9,000 plus the buyers’ fee for a total of $ 10,575. I placed that bid, which I considered to be ridiculously high, because I wanted to finish my Twenty Cent Piece set with a coin that had original surfaces. Obviously I was not even close.
A second 1877 Twenty Cent Piece was sold last night. It was an NGC PR-63, Cameo. That coin has a “Coin Facts” quote of $ 5,500. The previous high had been $ 12,925 for a PCGS graded pieces recently sold by Kagins. Going by the photo the Kagins coin had a lot of hairlines, and I was not interested in it. Oddly it seemed at first that it did not sell in the live auction and was offered after the sale. It appears that it sold at a later date.
The 1877 Twenty Cent Piece had been dipped, and it appeared to have a lot of marks around the date area. It didn’t look choice to me in any way for the grade. I don’t see any crack-out or even crossing potential for this coin to PCGS in the same grade. Yet, it sold for $ 19,975, which is WAY more than the catalog for PR-66. 
Biding like this has been happening almost every time I place a bid for anything. So far as the 1877 Twenty Cent piece is concerned, I think that a couple people are trying to corner the market on it. The prices realized are much higher than they have been in the past, and the numbers really don’t make much sense. How many Twenty Cent Piece collectors are there? “Coin Facts” there are 400 survivors which makes it a scarce coin, but hardly rare.
If there are a couple people who are trying to corner market, I’ll tell right now that you are on a fool’s journey. You take a lesson from the guy who bought up more than 70 examples of the 1909-VDB Cent in Matte Proof. You will keep paying more and more for every piece you buy. The winners will be those who sell the coins to you. The losers will be you and any coin collector who would like to have one of these coins in his or her collection. Trying to sell a hoard can take years. You can’t let people know you have it because it will hang over the market and depress prices. You can’t let too many out at once because that will depress prices. Trying to corner the market on an item like this is not a winning strategy.
As for 1839-C quarter eagle in PCGS AU-50, I bought that $ 8,812.50 ($7,500 hammer). That was also too much, but it is step toward completing a set of Classic Head $2.50. It will probably be the weakest coin in my set. The coin is a late date state with badly broken dies on both sides. As a result, the design is not sharply defined, but it appears not to have been cleaned. The “Coin Facts” quote on that coin is $ 6,250. My bid tied a previous high.
This market is bringing my participation in the U.S. coin market gradually to a close. With out of line prices like this the norm, this hobby is not fun anymore. According to what I’ve read here, the U.S. coin market is weak and has been weak for a while. As I’ve said before, I am yet to participate in that weak market. Something is going on, and I don’t understand it. The coins upon which I have expressed an interest are far the top of the condition census, and none of them have been approved by CAC.
So who is bidding them up? Darned if I know.
Comments
Maybe the market is not as weak as you believe.
Probably you just have great taste which we all know costs premium money, which would be a credit to you.
It doesn't surprise me that an unmessed with 39-c $2.5 sold for $8,800. A strong price, yes, but not stupid money.
Expecting to buy nice pieces for average prices has never been a winning strategy. I imagine you could pick lots on the other side that went too cheaply. As a whole though, nice coins are hard to find and the market for them when they come around is well above the market for the other 90% of pieces.
Latin American Collection
If I had "great taste" I'd be going for at least a PR-64 for the Twenty Cent Piece and an AU-58 for the 1839-C quarter eagle. The two coins upon which I was bidding would have been and will be the lowest grade coins in their respective sets. They are at the bottom end of the "nice coin" spectrum.
I could have had an MS-62 for the 1839-C quarter eagle at a recent bourse. The catch was the coin was an NGC MS-62 that had had its surfaces stripped and was a bright as a brass button. It was priced at $29,000. The price had "great taste;" the coin didn't.
Yes, but both of the Twenty Cent Pieces brought "stupid money." Something is going on with them.
I still chuckle when I think about your old line, have me bid on your coin and you will easily get the money you wanted! (paraphrase)
check out European top coin auction prices. nearly every auction has some kind of a new record for highest price paid at auction.
My friend in Germany, a high end colonial coin collector, like German new Guinea in MS 65 and better, (he is on his 3rd set including the gold pieces in Proof) and other colonial Items, does not go to the auctions himself anymore. When he shows up, bids go up. So he is using a agent now to bid.
He is also not submitting online bids anymore. instead again, he is using physically present agent as he suspects the auction firms are "helping the online pre-bids along a bit".
BillJones, could something like this also be possible in your case?
Can you link the completed listings so we can view them?
Sure!
1877 20C, PCGS PR-63
https://coins.ha.com/itm/proof-twenty-cent-pieces/1877-20c-pr63-pcgs-bf-1-r3/a/1256-3611.s?ic2=mybidspage-lotlinks-12202013&tab=MyBids-101116
1877 20C NGC PR-63, CAM
https://coins.ha.com/itm/proof-twenty-cent-pieces/1877-20c-pr63-cameo-ngc-bf-1-r3/a/1256-3612.s?ic2=mytracked-lotspage-lotlinks-12202013&tab=MyTrackedLots-101116
1839-C $2.50 PCGS AU-50
https://coins.ha.com/itm/classic-quarter-eagles/1839-c-2-1-2-au50-pcgs-breen-6150-winter-2-variety-22-r4/a/1256-3808.s?ic2=mybidspage-lotlinks-12202013&tab=MyBids-101116
Consider the possibility that you are bidding against the consignors. I'm not saying this is the case, just that it is one possibility. I can be a bit paranoid at times.
At $9,000 I was way down the list on the 1877 20 cent in PCGS PR-63. I do not bid on the 1877 20 cent in NGC PR-63, CAM becasue I didn't like it. At any rate it was already bid up to $11,000 when I opened the link. I thought that was insane, but I watched to see how crazy it would go.
The consigner might be bidding on the 1839-C $2.50. It is not a pretty coin, and not the type of piece that is going to get the Charlotte Mint specialists going "OOO" and "AHH." It fills a hole filler, but at least it hasn't had a bath in Brasso.
A condition review is like that is not the kind of thing that makes this hobby fun.
The prices on the Twenty Cent pieces is puzzling
Latin American Collection
I stared in aware last night at some of those prices realized for some nice, not great coins, but still way outta my league. The Long Beach Auction continues on through (at least) Sunday Night.
BST transactions: dbldie55, jayPem, 78saen, UltraHighRelief, nibanny, liefgold, FallGuy, lkeigwin, mbogoman, Sandman70gt, keets, joeykoins, ianrussell (@GC), EagleEye, ThePennyLady, GRANDAM, Ilikecolor, Gluggo, okiedude, Voyageur, LJenkins11, fastfreddie, ms70, pursuitofliberty, ZoidMeister,Coin Finder, GotTheBug, edwardjulio, Coinnmore, Nickpatton, Namvet69,...
The Twenty Cent pieces are also puzzling to me. Proof Seated coins (5c to 50c denominations) are experiencing a gradual decline in value. The half dimes, dimes, quarters and halves, in many cases, sell at discounts from their 2008 prices, even after gradeflation is taken into account. PR63 is a grade that is difficult to sell, as most collectors of proof Seated are seeking gems, in my experience. To be seeking an 1877 proof Twenty Cents, one really needs to be a date collector of proof Twenty Cent pieces, and there are not many such collectors out there.
Good post - I don't know about these in particular, but auctions in general seem to bring strong prices for just about any scarce or somewhat scarce large cent, even those with minor issues. Or maybe I've just gotten extremely lucky with some of my bourse and other purchases.
I owned this 1877 Twenty Cent Piece for a few years. It was graded PCGS PR-64. Its sins are obvious. The "sun" in the left field is a thin planchet lamination, and there were two others on the obverse, to the left of that one and one by Ms. Liberty's feet. Those factors made the coin hard to sell. The dealer, who owned it, had bought it back in a Heritage sale. I bought it a fair-sized discount under Gray Sheet from him.
Someone offered me something over $7,500 for it under the "for sale by owner" program that Heritage runs, and I took it. I don't regret that because I never fell in love with the coin. I provided photos of the coin to the prospective buyer via Heritage and explained what was wrong with it. That person bought anyway. My conscience was clear because I was 100% honest about the coin. No games
I don’t know what is going on with 1877 Proof 20 cent pieces, but there is a game afoot.
I also had an offer on the 1878 Twenty Cent Piece I have in PR-64. I turned that one down because I really like that piece.
It could be a combination of upgrade potential and that the 1877 proof is under-rated vs. other dates. I don't see anything on that PCGS PF63 that would preclude a 65 grade. Can't say without seeing it in hand. The NGC coin is absurdly blazing white....yet some people love that.
Looking at PCGS price guide I'd say the 1877 is way off in higher grades. It's priced like a common date. Is the 1895 Morgan dollar proof priced like a common date? It makes no sense to me that without any business strike 1877's, the proof 1877 is priced lower in PF65/66 than 2 of the other dates (1876 and 1878). They all have similar PF65 pops....and close enough in 66. Yet the 1877 only gets a 5% date premium to type in 65/66? That makes no sense to me....for a proof-only date.
Maybe someone is trying to rectify that? It also makes no sense to me that the 1877 only jumps from around $10,250 to $12.5K from 65 to 66. That's just nuts. And even worse, 2 of the other dates that are readily available as business strikes go for $18K in PF66. While this doesn't explain why a PF63 valued at price guide for $5K goes for $11K-$14K, there's definitely some inaccuracies in the pricing from where I sit. Not my series....but it sticks out like a sore thumb. Get your 1877 before they revise the price guide upwards. There ought to be some out there not going to auction that you can find priced to your liking. I checked GC's archives and they've only sold 3 of this date in the past....grades of 62 or lower.
https://coins.ha.com/c/search-results.zx?Ne=1897&N=51+790+231+362+3979&expand=US+Coin+Year&ic4=Refine-USCoinYear-102615#expand-1897
Heritage auction archives. It does seem like this market changed since August 2016. Someone/some people feel bullish on 1877 20c pieces.
In looking at the NGC 63 CAM at $19,975 closer, the obv looks DCAM even if the fields are so scuffy as to blur them. Reverse is full CAM+, possibly borderline DCAM. I wouldn't rule out the DCAM-ness as being why it went for $19K. What's a 63/64 DCAM worth today? The price guide gives it a 10% premium over a non-CAM? Seriously? $7500 for a pop 2 1877 PF64 DCAM? Where can I buy one? And at most 2 coins higher in PF66. Pop 4 max. Seems pretty rare to me.
There is a big difference between Morgan Dollars, which have hundreds of thousands of followers at various levels and Twenty Cent Pieces that have a limited number of interested collectors. Most of the action is for an 1875-S to fill the type coin hole. Beyond that there are only a few odd people like me.
The 1875-P Twenty Cent Piece is harder to find in Proof than you might think. The mintage was high, but given the number of peices I've seen, a lot of them must have been melted. The easiest to find Twenty Cent Piece in Proof is the 1876 followed by the 1878 from my experience.
As for the 1877 in PCGS PR-63 that went for just over $14 grand, pull up the holder picture on that coin and up the magnification. You will see a number marks on Ms. Liberty's right arm and a few hairlines in the fields. There is no way that coin is going into a PR-65 holder without a big gradeflation boost.
At this point, I don't think I'll be able to buy an 1877 Twenty Cent Piece. The current bidders are the "I'll pay any price to get it," frame of mind, you can't do anything but get buried with the coin, IF they stop bidding, which is no fun. I've run into that with the token and medal people for political pieces, and you just have to walk away.
There is one that that has been on the bourse circuit about six months in an NGC PR-63 holder. It has been dipped white and as a huge scratch in the right obverse field that just ruins it. I don't get NGC at all any more. They should not be puting a grade on something like that. Do they care about their reputation at all?
I was a bidder on the 1839-C. $2.50...nice coin...
All it takes is a $10 bid from me, and we're off to the races. Gitty-up!
How do you think it compares with the last one they sold for the same money? That one looked like it had been lightened which discouraged to me to bid any further on it. It also had a small lamination in the left obverse field.
Link to previous sale of 1839-C Quarter Eagle:
https://coins.ha.com/itm/classic-quarter-eagles/quarter-eagles/1839-c-2-1-2-au50-pcgs-winter-2-variety-22-r4/a/1252-3916.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515
OGH-mania
Latin American Collection
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I don't see those marks on her arm as an issue except at the 66+ level. You can't even compare those tiny arm tics to the dozen or so cuts and digs on that NGC 63. I'd grade these 2 PF63 coins as 2 full points apart based on the photos.
It's a new era. PF65 coins can and will have hairlines, sometimes numerous ones....and even field friction. That's one of the reasons that if I buy proofs, they usually end up being 66/67. I can rarely find PF65's that are hairline-free enough for me. Graded as PCGS PF63, that one appears to have upside potential to me.
I can't afford to drop $12,000 on a single coin but it doesn't seem like profit is the primary motivation of someone spending that kind of money trying to corner the market on something.
You just laid out the case why the time has come for me to withdraw from spending any more big money on this hobby. It explains why I can't find anything decent to buy at the shows. Your "This new era phrase" lays out the reason why this hobby is headed for a serious crossroads. Perhaps I can survive financially with the really good coins I have, but buying more expensive coins in a market like this is financial suicide.
Thank you for your honesty. I am glad that I am finished as an active dealer and a high ticket buyer. If I ever find an 1877 Twenty Cent piece that is priced within a shouting distance of reasonable, I will buy it. One of my economics professors in undergraduate schoool called that "a consumption act." That means you are spending money with no hope of ever having a financial return. You do it for pleasure. The pleasure is gone when you spend almost $20 thousand for a coin that is worth $5,500, with a tail wind, because two or three speculators have driven the price to insane levels.
I'd love to see the winner of this lot take to a major bourse and shop it to the dealers. If their asking price was $10 thousand. half the time they would get a sniker and the question, "You paid what?"
There appears to be a truly great 1877 Twenty Cent Piece coming up for sale in the next Legend Auction, a PR-66 with CAC sticker. I wonder what that is worth? Given what these people are paying, $80 or $90 thousand dollars might be in order.
I have two other quarter eagle dates that are on my want list, I will buy them for their historical and exhibit purposes. After that I am done. I have over paid for a few over graded items, and since there are only a few to several hundred dollar involved, I don't care. But when you talking about being down thousands and tens of thousands of dollars that does matter to me.
Losing thousands on the depreciation of a fancy car that I will enjoy for years is okay and part of the game. Losing it on coins is not.
I too was interested in the 1877 20c pieces and put in aggressive bids.
Ive only owned 1 piece which was a pcgs pr62 cameo that I sold 4/19/2014 for $4600
I remember bidding on the coins 2-3 days before the auction went live and the bidding was already 2 grades up valuation. I was totally not understanding why they were bringing such high numbers and bowed out.
It's a new era. PF65 coins can and will have hairlines, sometimes numerous ones....and even field friction. That's one of the reasons that if I buy proofs, they usually end up being 66/67. I can rarely find PF65's that are hairline-free enough for me. Graded as PCGS PF63, that one appears to have upside potential to me.
You just laid out the case why the time has come for me to withdraw from spending any more big money on this hobby.
Bill - with your knowledge and sharp eye, I don't think you need to withdraw...I KNOW you would not spend big $ on a "gem Proof" with numerous hairlines.
Of course, your point may be that almost anything out there has issues and is overgraded, and the few that are truly nice are commanding outrageous premiums....that neither of us choose to pay.
I just got an email from Heritage on the results of the auction. Both of the people who bought the Twenty Cent Pieces now have “Make an offer to the owner” signs up. If there was a Los Vegas for coin collectors, these two guys could be stand-up comedians.
You have paid prices that have put you 12 and 100 feet below ground financially, and you want somebody to pay you and Heritage a profit? Not even a steam shovel can dig you out. You are going to need an oil drill.
You have gone beyond the level of rational coin collectors and have gone into "La- La Land."
@BillJones You've mentioned moving away from US coins in a few posts. Where else would you focus your collecting efforts?
I still collect political items with neat slogans and historical importance, both numismatic and pin back, and there are three coins left on my want list. Beyond that I might try to collect the Proof coins from the 1930s and ’40s unless the crazy people think those have “great investment potential” too. If everything goes nuts, research will have to take over. I am sitting on a fairly big collection, and I've fun putting together a Power Point and an article about the 1792 half disme.
Sad to read that the auctions did not seem rational... Not sure how all of this relates back to the CAC question. Doubt that it really matters.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
Bill, I would LOVE to see your collection in it's entirety someday....the coins you've posted on the forum over the years have been exceptional.
Somebody put a bug in your computer and knows when you are bidding!
Edit to add: On a serious note...I had a dude following me on ebay in the old days when you could see everything. We were evidently chasing the same things. He was always there outbidding me. Heritage had a huge sale 1 weekend and there were 20 or 30 coins I wanted. That turkey started doing his thing and I buried him in every single coin! That night the tracking stopped and the competition was over!
It has little to do with CAC. The prices these guys are paying is like the old circus highwire act without a safety net. If the coins were CAC endorsed, you might see some logic. But if some of the posts here are to be believed almost all of the non CAC coins in the major auctions are CAC rejects. If that's true I get back to my point. Why are the prices so high?
Wow. You're not paranoid. Everybody is out to get you!
Unfortunately, the 20 cents series is not on my radar so I really don't know the frequency in which they appear at auction or the quality. I do share your concern that there is a negative inference on type coins that do not have a CAC sticker.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
It seems like hit or miss. I'm pretty familiar with Flying Eagle varieties. There was an 1857 obverse of 56 in PCGS MS64 with CAC sticker that went for $3,600. That's as much as MS65 have been trading for, with 64's trading between $1,400 and $1,700. This was not the S-1 DDO Obverse of 56 which would have brought that much.
While this topic is personal to Bill, I found it as one of the most informative and eye-opening postings in a while. It can be applied to anyone who is looking to complete a set with nice coins. While I don't bid in Bill's end of the pool, I have seen some of that crazy in some of the coins I want to bid on in this 'weak market'.
10-4,
My Instagram picturesErik
My registry sets
Great collectors think alike with a lot of competition.
I don't believe for a minute that the auction results Bill found represent real auction sales. I suspect the consignors did not get the prices they hoped for, so they bid up their own items, possibly with some help from a shill, and they ended up buying them back. Now they are still for sale the next day at higher prices- because those are the amounts the consignor was hoping to get. Of course, I have no way of knowing any of this for sure, but I am entitled to my opinion.
I saw super mediocre coins sell for 30%-40% above PQ money. Puzzling. But I think they were mainly buy backs.
An 1877 20 cent piece in PR-63, no cameo, is not the foundation of a "great collection." It is a hole filler, which was all I wanted.
The "make offer to owner' just means that they have opted in to receives offers on any coins that they purchase.
More than half the lots in my tracking list have the make offer option.
There was a previous PF63 1877 that sold in May 2016 for $4230. Someone offered them $7076 a month later.
Maybe there is true demand for this date or someone is doing a pretty good job of making it appear like there is.
Or it could be there is more than one "next Eliasberg" that needs to fill some holes in their album.
https://coins.ha.com/itm/twenty-cent-pieces/quarters-and-twenty-cents/1877-20c-pr63-pcgs-bf-1-r3/a/1234-3307.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515
That "offer" could easily be a shill as well.
The only thing that really counts is when a coin goes to a new owner and payment is made.
Yes Bill it's very odd indeed. Hard to make common sense out of these bids and it is truly easisr to assume shannigans. unfortunatly now the auction records are going to be skewed price wise upwards. Unless of course that is the intent?
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Why are you bidding several hours/days before the auction? I believe the only person your helpful is the seller.
I wonder what these coins would sell for in Dutch auction and what the starting price would have been.
Mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Could be speculation or a promotion of some kind to drive up the price or some kind of collusion or who knows what.
Quite a few years ago now I went to a Bowers and Merena auction in pursuit of a 1799 large cent. There were three of them in the auction at low grades all around g condition. I was hoping to get one of them. They should have sold for $1,000 each. I bid just over $1000 on each one. The same dealer bought all of them for the next bid. A few months later 1799 large cents in g condition were selling for over $3000 each. It took me quite a few years to get one after that. The prices never came back down, not even a little. I think I paid $4,000 for one.
There are never more than a few 1799 large cents on the market at the same time. The same is true for the 1877 twenty cent piece. Coins that only have a few on the market at one time are always candidates for a speculative run-up.
Setting the marker at the price that I am willing to pay has worked for me in the past. Once you get to a certain price level, the bidding increments become "real money." If you end up on the wrong side of the bidding back and forth, it can cost you.
For example years ago I wanted a scarce item for which my top bid was $50,000. The increment is $5,000 at that level. Even a cut bid of $2,500 is "real money," at least for me. I put the $50,000 bid up on the Internet. As it so happen there was a representative at that auction whose client had authorized him to bid $50,000. My book bid took precedence, and I got the lot. This was not the only time this strategy has worked for me.
Second, I am on the east coast and the auction was in California. The time difference does matter. I would have had to have stayed up very late to have bid in the 1839-C quarter eagle. One time an auction ran until past 3AM. I had not made an Internet bid on a lot that interested me, I simply ended up not being able to bid on it.
I believe Heritage does that make an offer on any auction winnings unless you opt out. I have never done either and do receive offers.