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For coins over $1000 on Heritage or GC with no cac sticker... what's the probability it was tried?
AllCoinsRule
Posts: 2,445 ✭✭✭✭
Do you think almost all coins have been tried (or specifically not tried due to it obviously being low end) or do you think some percentage of consignors' coins just get auctioned as is with no attempt?
Anyone have an answer besides a random guess?
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Ian (GC) has a good eye for coins and will at least suggest that a CAC attempt be made, if it is warranted, at least he did for me when I consigned with him a few times.
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I never sent in a coin to try to get cac'ed and auctioned off a lot of coins 1000's a year.
Hoard the keys.
Not necessarily. You can't just assume a coin was sent in simply because it is not stickered. A few months ago an NGC 1st gen black with a walking liberty in it sold without a CAC on GC. The buyer sent it in and it got the gold.
CAC is too dificult for the average collector to understand as they cannot submit directly like they can with PCGS or NGC. If they don't want your business why would you want to give it to them when you sell?
CAC as it is is a lousy business model.
Enough said.
bob
Probably 30-40%, if the consignor does not request it, it probably doesn't happen.
43.6%
CAC is not omnipotent. Not every certified coin has been sent in to blessed or condemned.
I know of one dealer who used to have code on his inventory stickers that indicated whether or not a coin had passed the muster. I bought a couple of them that had flunked because the price was commensurate with what they were.
Some coins have the sticker removed.
I think it depends on the coin CAC does not accept certain coins. So first you ( a collective you not a personal "you") Have to see what they sticker and what they do not. Then depending on the coin, my guess is that higher end coins get sent in and lower end ones do not.
That isn't true. I am a member and I am a collector and not a dealer. They open for new memberships off and on.
Latin American Collection
I can see where a cac green sticker might actually be a detriment had a gold sticker been warranted.
We send in less than 10% of the coins we offer in our auctions. Surprisingly, some clients don't want us to do it, even when we recommend it, others are on a tight schedule and don't want to wait the additional 7-10 days for coins to go to/from CAC.
(As logger7 points out, definitely some people will avoid sending in obvious upgrade coins, just in case it only comes back green).
Owner/Founder GreatCollections
GreatCollections Coin Auctions - Certified Coin Auctions Every Week - Rare Coins & Coin Values
"That isn't true. I am a member and I am a collector and not a dealer. They open for new memberships off and on."
Well, they sure don't make this information available. How'd you hear about this? I've never seen any open enrollment for non dealers.
bob
I agree, which is why photos are so important. And feel free to call/email if you want additional information about anything in our auctions.
Re: upgrades. Check the Sierra Madre Collection we sold recently (PR is on PCGS's home page in lower right). These coins were superb - most were clear upgrades - 8 had gold cac stickers, but 42 had just green stickers - even the few coins that didn't CAC sold very well. The owner was adamant to sell as is (without regrading) and was rewarded for doing so. I think he realized more as a collection this way - and didn't have any additional grading expense...and sold much quicker as well.
Owner/Founder GreatCollections
GreatCollections Coin Auctions - Certified Coin Auctions Every Week - Rare Coins & Coin Values
That's what happened when I sent some coins to them. 2 out of 5 stickered.
A couple of years ago, I was discussing the advantages of being a CAC member with a good
friend, who is a member. He was very pro-CAC and the more people I spoke with were in
agreement. So, I sent them a letter asking to join at the Collector Level and used my friends
( CAC members ) as references.
A few months later, I was invited to join. As I later found out they do accept new collector members every so often.
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Coin collecting is not a hobby, it's an obsession !
New Barber Purchases
Oy Vey! Years ago if it wasn't slabbed "there must be a reason" then, it's a nice coin but get it in the "right" holder. Now some hold the top grading companies irrelevant. And say it must be a problem coin if no sticker. And yous guys wonder why you can't recruit people into the "hobby."
I simply called them and asked. They sent me a membership form and told me they weren't accepting new members but it's possible. A month or so later I was accepted. I'm sure it helped that all my references were well known names in numismatics though. If you want to join give em a call and give it a shot
How do you know when a gold CAC is warranted as they hand out only around 200 of them per year. I recall a 200 coin submission to CAC where my selections for old holder gold CACs out of that group ended up far different than what JA ultimately chose. And no sticker or a gold sticker on an NGC black holder coin is almost irrelevant as 90% of the value is the holder when it comes to common MS66 and lower Walkers. I suspect that the majority of $1,000 type coins being auctioned off today at Heritage/SB have been CAC reviewed if they were at all reasonably worthy....especially where the price spread is large.
The current Heritage auction contains 116 coins in my area of interest (Liberty $2.50's). Only a handful of collections are represented - one collection accounts for 17 coins while other collections account for no more than 2 or 3 coins each.
Only 14 of the 116 (12%) are CAC approved and 9 of those are ultra common post-1896 issues plus one proof.
I believe its unlikely that only 12% of the 116 were submitted to CAC by the various consigners. What is more plausible to me is that CAC approved coins are going directly to the bourse floor while non approved coins are consigned.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
One thing I have noticed is that people will put their questions about Greatcollections here, but won't have the balls, or spend the time, to just call up (or email) Ian and ask...and yet, he always comes here if he sees/knows about the thread, and answers.
He's very upfront on his answers.
The questions aren't necessarily bad questions, and make for some good reading here, but Ian is really the only one that can answer them, so I always wonder why they aren't directly asked to him (with maybe the thread still posted but WITH the answers)???
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
Common date $2-1/2 Libs are barely worth sending in today in grades under MS65 as the prices have crashed and compressed. There's only a $100 spread from MS61 to MS64. It's almost not worth the trouble any more. And it makes no sense to send in common 63's or lower. Sending common MS $2-1/2 Lib gold to an auction doesn't make sense in any grades under MS66. Just sell them on the bourse floor and keep the 10-20% seller's net commission.
A net 12% sticker rate can be deceiving. Recall that when the Dick Osburn seated halves went to auction a few years back that the net sticker rate was only 19%....and only 3% on the NGC coins that compromised the majority of the collection. Those low numbers defy belief but I suspect that every one of the 150+ coins in that collection did get reviewed by CAC. Generally, it's not a bad idea to send premium quality CAC coins to auction to be bid "to the moon" if there's a chance 2 or more bidders will "HAVE" to own it.
Doubtful anybody has more than a random guess. My random guess for coins in the $1000 to $3000 range is under 50% have been to CAC.
Roadrunner, there is no argument that post 1896 $2.50's are common. Hundreds of PCGS/CAC examples exist and can always be found through MS67.
My point was that the present Heritage auction contains plenty of uncommon $2.50's and only a handful are CAC approved.
Only 5 of 83 coins dated 1895 or earlier are CAC approved.
Combined I see 20 Charlotte and Dahlonega coins up for bidding; none are CAC approved. There is abundant incentive to submit southern branch mint gold to CAC. I cannot imagine that these 20 Charlotte and Dahlonega coins have not been submitted.
My conclusion, at least for my series, is that consigners are submitting their better date gold to CAC and consigning to auction what does not sticker.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
It could very well be that a lot of dealers are selling the rejects at auction, but there will always be others selling top shelf coins that have not been sent to cac. It would sound like it comes back to the same thing. In order to bid intelligently you need to know how to grade and what to look for. No different buying anywhere.
It does seem that some dealers are only wanting to deal in cac coins, if this is the case, they do need to dump their mistakes somewhere.
This brings up a question in my mind. I hear that many dealers or collectors will send a coin over and over to a grading company until they get a grade they desire. Is is also possible to send multiple times to CAC and wait to hit your lucky day?
Also could CAC not keep a database of coins submitted and not stickered? I am sure there must be a reason they will not do this?
Why doesn't CAC publish a list of the coins they reject? First you question implies that CAC is infallible, which is not case. Second, they could end up with a slew of lawsuits.
Low probability
There are a lot of "traditional" collectors who think they are expert graders and often shun both TPG's and CAC. When they want to sell things they will submit them for grading but are still not inclined to then submit those coins to CAC. My guess is that 65-70 % of even quite valuable coins in auctions have never been reviewed.
Nice of them to leave some meat on the bone for the sharks.
Don't forget about the percentage that were submitted to CAC before the pieces were even consigned to GC. If a coin doesn't have a sticker at that level, look closely at the large images regardless of which auction house is used.
Hi bob
They had open collector enrollment for years on their site. Collectors also had an extra perk as CAC didn't charge collectors for coins that didn't pass.
Enrollement is now closed but slots do open from time to time.
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I agree with this POV. I would buy a flunked coin at a commensurate price if it made sense.
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
The problem I see with CAC is that you don't know why a coin did not sticker. Was it a 100% original coin that is on the lower end of the grade, which would be OK, or was it passed because of a past cleaning or other problem. Correct me if I am wrong, but a coin that does not warrant a CAC sticker can be a great coin in many regards.
The way I understand it, if you take the exact same coin and send it in the PCGS, it comes back as a 64 and also gets a CAC sticker when sent to them. Now you crack the coin, send back to PCGS, it comes back 65, but will not CAC because it is a low end 65. I can see the value in their sticker to some degree, but don't see how a coin without a sticker is bad either. Now if a coin had a different sticker for cleaning, etc. I could see a huge value in that.
There was a comment on these boards that a substantial number of the Pogue sales coins, something like half or more of them, did not have CAC stickers and were therefore deemed "unworthy" in the eyes of "the ultimate grading service." The poster concluded that even the Pogues had "missed the mark on a substantial number of their purchases."
My take was different. From what I saw of the Pogue coins, the grading ranged from accurate to conservative. My view is that very few of them were unworthy of the CAC sticker.
Part of the CAC mystic is that there is a network of dealers who will purchase CAC coins sight unseen at a given price. Could it be that the CAC consortium was not in the position to back such a large group of rare and high grade coins that brought substantial prices?
Obviously this question contains an element of speculation, but that conclusion seems more logical to me than the contention that the Pogues missed the mark more than 50% of the time. Given the uniform high quality of their holdings, that conclusion does not seem to be based in fact to me.
Here is one of the coins that flunked at CAC, an 1851-O gold dollar. The dealer and CAC really disagreed on this one. He submitted it for an upgrade to PCGS that it didn't get. It is graded MS-63.
The CAC graders have a different standard than the grading companies. I have seen many coins that did not CAC that were original and I liked. One constant of note is nearly every CAC submission I've reviewed the finest coins in each submission were approved.
I'm in concurrence with stman
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
I agree with this completely. CAC is looking for their specific grading guidelines and the appearance of the coin. It doesn't mean non-CAC coins are no good or overgraded.
Owner/Founder GreatCollections
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