69 vs. 70 - Let the debate begin :)
RB1026
Posts: 1,494 ✭✭✭✭
Over the years I've seen this argued both ways. Let's assume the coin is a generic 2016 ASE Proof (or any other modern generic for that matter). Do you buy the 69 at the lesser price or go all in on the 70? Which offers the better value generally over the long term? Are the 70's worth the premium over the raw/69's that they often command?
Personally, I rarely play in the "modern end of the pool" BUT when I do (for gifts or because I like a design), I struggle with the decision and usually settle on the 69 grade. Often the price over raw is negligible and you then get the coin encapsulated which I prefer for storage and long-term preservation purposes. However, it seems as though the 69's are doomed to languish at moderate price levels while 70's sometimes have upside. What do you think?
Comments
The 70's for the most part will eventually join the 69's in the languishing dept. It just takes time. More 70's will be made....probably a lot more as more and more coins are submitted in years to come....all the while the collector base is stagnant. Unless you find the "moose" of MS/PF70's, I would think the 70 grade will eventually fail you on 90% of moderns. I'm sure there would be exceptions where very few additional 70's might show up.... as WonderCoin could attest to. 70 is not perfect. It's only more perfect than a MS69.
70 is theoretically perfect, but I can't see the difference between that and one labeled a 69 without a loupe. If I do, I'll look at the next one. I can buy more coins for 69 money. Someone who needs a 70 coin needs a 70 coin. But for me, a 69+ is OK.
my early American coins & currency: -- http://yankeedoodlecoins.com/
I don't personally collect moderns. That said, same for me, I don't like looking at coins through a loupe (although I do own one and use it). If I have to find a flaw on a coin with a loupe to tell the difference between two coins grade, then I'm perfectly happy with the cheaper option!
What most folks forget is the "69/70" line on moderns is no different than, say, the 66/67 line on a classic coin. Take the 1909-S vdb cent for example, Examples of MS66RD coins reached about $15,000 (and I bought a couple between $10,000 - $15,000 for my personal collection) while MS67RD examples reached $150,000 a few years back. Then, a handful or so of coins upgraded at and otherwise "got made" at PCGS and prices on the MS67RD specimens corrected down (collapsed?) to the lowest price I have seen in years when GC just sold one in the mid-$40,000's(!!) hammer (plus 10% BP) in their auction.
I just spoke yesterday to the dealer that sold his coin at auction for just under $100,000 a year or so ago and man was he a happy camper. "What goes up, must come down"? Well, not exactly ... as RR will tell you, not with ALL classics or moderns go down the tubes over time. Many, of course, do just that (take a look at the chart of the key date 1912-S Liberty Nickel over the past few years and you will see what I am talking about). Heck, look at the chart of my beloved 1932-D quarter for another example. But, not "all" coins crash in price of course. I personally love some 70 grade coins and how I believe they will perform over in the next 5-10 years. And, I am sure RR has his favorite classic coins as well. I just gobble up all the ("winner in my mind") 70's I can get my hands on at the right price these days. I wish I could tell you what coins they are, but, unfortunately, I am not licensed to do so. That said, I am identifying the "top 1% or 2% of modern coins (in my mind) to pursue. I do not have anywhere near the same confidence in the other roughly 98% of the pool. But, "that's what makes a horserace".
Just my two cents.
Wondercoin
My favorite grade to purchase for my collection is PCGS MS69 or PR69 First Strike with the flag label. The price is generally only slightly higher than a regular 69, and the flag label gives both the holder and the coin a premium appearance. I'm insulated against any possible collapse of the market for 70's, and I still have the potential upside for the scarcer coins based on their mintage totals. And since a limited budget is a factor, I can buy more coins in the 69 grade and complete my sets more quickly.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
I have purchased the occasional 70... mainly a special coin for a gift or a design I really like....I do not sell coins, as most here know... however, I have observed how desirable 70's are for the less experienced collectors. It seems that it becomes a 'boasting' point and they do pay a premium for the grade. I observed this on several occasions when I could frequently attend shows....So there is a market segment - well, two segments - for top graded coins... the deep pocket collector and the neophytes (these latter are usually are interested in moderns). Cheers, RickO
There are very few modern coins I am interested in. However, when I do buy a modern for my collection, I buy 70.
My consideration is the difference in price. If coin A is $50 in 69 and $600 in 70, then the 69. If coin B is $60 in 69 and $72 in 70, then I will opt for the 70.
Of course, I also believe that the 70 scale is not long for this world, as it will be superseded by a 100 point within 10 years, and unless that floodgates of regrading,
A scale of 1 - 70 was never logical to begin with, FOR THE AVERAGE PERSON, who, at least in the US, has always thought of a 100 point scale from school. Explain to the average person why a "score" of 58 is phenomenal on many coins.
Four things to consider:
Always buy the best you can afford. That said, you better make darn sure the coin graded 70 is correctly graded. I can see more defects on a coin using a magnifying glass than a TPGS employee using his eyes alone. Some fool (?) using a stereo microscope (both eyes & florescent light) at 8X can see more than I can with a 10X lens. So who is the fool here, the TPGS, me, or the guy with the scope?
A "true" 70 is going to have a better chance of appreciating or holding value in the future. Anyone who says they are not worth buying should look at the prices (once much cheaper) of "modern" coins that were graded 70 decades ago.
Since the price spread between a 69 & 70 can be large, unless you really know how to grade and have a great "eye-for-detail;" stick with the 69's. Unfortunately, at least 50% of the 70's I see don't make my grade.
With good reason, TPGS do not guarantee many coin types for deterioration once slabbed. Therefore, I have seen some 70's with very tiny spots hidden in the design. No telling when they occurred. Get the "drift" of this statement?
If you collect bullion product, the only thing that makes sense is 70's. The average grade of an American Silver Eagle is MS69. If you buy MS69's, you are literally buying a serial number. That's it.
I guess the same way you'd explain to an Ebay newbie that a Feedback rating of 97% is utter trash in that community (ie bottom 1-5%).
There are a whole lot of Lincoln proofs bought PR 70 just 5-7 years ago for a going price of $600 - $1200 each that no collector will admit purchasing at that price when they are going for under $200 now. I could go back and chase PR 70 cents and replace most of my 69 examples with 70 examples - but they are simply not worth the money in bragging or registry points etc.in my humble opinion. If I did spend the money I feel it would be better spent on a Matte Proof. The game right now is a PR69 2016 cent will cost you $25 and the 70 - $50 in due time. This may be my first year to buy a PR 70 cent - but for some reason, I am still hesitant.
WS
I like to bid on both. If the 70 is a few bucks over the 69 will bid on it. I bid on PCGS / NGC 69-coins I can get for melt + $15 or less both US and world, prefer 1 oz coins. I might add another $10 or $12 to the bid for a 70 and have won these. Where the spread between 69 and 70 real high 70 not for me. For more expensive mods like US Commem Dollars will bid GS Bid (sometimes bid + $10) and as matter of fact bought one in PCGS 69 on expensive modern commem from GC slightly below GS Bid and sold it for GS Bid + 50% about a week after I got it. It was a very pleasant surprise.
I recently got a mod world 1oz silver coin for BV + about $16 and it was an NGC 70. Many of these mods sell well at shows bc high grade affordable coins relatively close to melt compared to many expensive USA Vintage Issues that have languished for decades. I like having coins in my case at show almost everybody coming in the Bourse Room can afford along with a few of my USGTC DE from my bank box (no more than ten at a show if that many) due to risk management. The most liquid coins at shows are ASE, AGE, AGB. I am always on lookout for Gem CU USA NBN.
IMO, All MS/PR 69/70 coins are just a big hype!. No dealer would pay a premium to buy em back from their customers. In other words..."a one way street".
Dancing Fire... I buy tens upon tens of thousands of dollars of PCGS MS70/PR70 coins from collectors and dealers on a weekly basis. Try this "street" please. Wondercoin.
My feeling has always been that encapsulating any Modern from the Mint detracts enormously from its presentation. I prefer OGP all the way. Sure, I occasionally end up with a scratched or spotted coin, but then can just return it. The difference between 69 and 70 is so slight that it has less to do with the coin than with industry around grading them.
I'd rather debate which presidential candidate or dollar is the worst.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5