How will this equity market fall impact the coin market?
TopographicOceans
Posts: 6,535 ✭✭✭✭
The rare coin market is probably about a $3 billion market in the US.
As equity markets fall and the US economy gets stalled out (again) from its recovery, how bad will this spill over into the already struggling rare coin market?
The FMOC is still signaling that the US economy is not strong enough to handle a 25 point rise in interest rates and we seem to be closer to a new recession every day.
Sometimes collectables markets can rise when others fall, and sometimes they just follow along and drop even further.
Coin collecting is both a hobby and an investment. Hobbies don't do well in a recession, but alternative investments can.
As equity markets fall and the US economy gets stalled out (again) from its recovery, how bad will this spill over into the already struggling rare coin market?
The FMOC is still signaling that the US economy is not strong enough to handle a 25 point rise in interest rates and we seem to be closer to a new recession every day.
Sometimes collectables markets can rise when others fall, and sometimes they just follow along and drop even further.
Coin collecting is both a hobby and an investment. Hobbies don't do well in a recession, but alternative investments can.
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Cashback from Mr. Rebates
If gold runs up again that generally fuels dealers liquidity.
Agree with the above.
Right now we are looking at US stocks down 3% today, back to the same level as mid April.
I wouldn't expect the stock market to have much effect on coin collectors.
The biggest factor is demographics, aging collectors not being replaced with young
collectors.
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Personally, I've always been hoping for $500 gold as then I could cheaply build a nice St. Gaudens set. $2,000 gold and I'm out of any gold buying.
The hobby will remain intact. Collectors control their market and marketers keep marketing.
I agree - if you're in a panic over one bad day, you should not be involved in either the stock market or putting serious money into coins.
Member ANA, SPMC, SCNA, FUN, CONECA
Collector coins, to me, are just another asset class, more like cash with low interest rates than anything else due to stability of price. The joy is in the artwork, collecting and scoring a good deal.
"Just because you were born on 3rd base doesn't mean you hit a triple"
3% down is a fire sale?
mark
Word.
3% down is a fire sale?
mark
Word.
If we see a 25 point raise in interest rates were in big trouble.
IIRC, the recent banter suggests a rate decrease might be more likely.
The rare coin market is probably about a $3 billion market in the US.
As equity markets fall and the US economy gets stalled out (again) from its recovery, how bad will this spill over into the already struggling rare coin market?
The FMOC is still signaling that the US economy is not strong enough to handle a 25 point rise in interest rates and we seem to be closer to a new recession every day.
Sometimes collectables markets can rise when others fall, and sometimes they just follow along and drop even further.
Coin collecting is both a hobby and an investment. Hobbies don't do well in a recession, but alternative investments can.
I think that you are thinking to much.
The coin market will be fine.
Whoever thinks of coins as an asset class for investors should read this thread.
Interest rates, reining in government regulations and lowering business taxes are all wild cards. I am optimistic that the lower taxes and less government interference will decrease the impact of higher interest rates.
As for the income from the debt and equality markets, improvements will increase my numismatic budget.
FWIW, I viewed the current 8-year recession, or whatever you CHOOSE to call it, through the same lens as all that had come before it and expected the economy would react the same. I told my girlfriend we'd be coming around sometime during the summer of 2010.
my new thinking is different and I assume that the current conditions are the new norm. what happened in September of 2008 is that a lot of bad history caught up with us at precisely the wrong time and everything collapsed. despite the best efforts of whoever happens to be in charge things won't be changing soon. there's just no turning back the clock to something that isn't tech oriented and World Organized.
it is sad and I don't like it, but it still is.
just like 100 years ago, once the Horse-less carriage arrived there was really no way to save the buggy whip industry.
With India's bold and catastrophic repudiation of high denomination currency, I would think that it won't be hard for other governments to see how easily its people can be screwed and do the same thing or similar.
In that case, PRIVATE wealth may start looking at a LOT of other avenues for wealth preservation.
Coins could easily benefit if they are chosen with a tactic in mind of "coinvesting" in actually scarce to rare pieces.
I can't see any government ability to repudiate hard assets that aren't strictly BULLION.
And ....IF... Trump ushers in a true "better" economy (or even inflation) then I would suspect some increase in discretionary income.
The klinker is the blase' and unconcerned attitude of the millennial generation.
I'm not sure those entitled little live-with-the-folks imps even have an inkling of "preparation for the future."
They're ready to accept OUR bequests to them, but seem to have no inclination to analyze or act upon anything that could increase in value to their benefit.
Long story short: I think the PROPERLY selected coins will experience if not a renaissance of desire, at least a proxy storage of value. (Gee, I think Ive heard that song before)
whew.
Oh yeah, forgot...... BAD LUCK TO INDIA AND I TS DAMNED CURRENCY REPUDIATION !!
I think it's a mistake to believe that all the members of a generation are the same.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Four of nieces and nephews are doing well and are NOT the norm. Two others are "typical" although one who is living in his father's basement just got a job. Unfortunately it's not part of the four year degree he just finished, but at least it's a job.
The other is either a communist or a socialist, and he's going spend his life going to college or teaching in college if he gets all the graduate degrees he needs. At any rate his student loans will be with him for the foreseeable future, and his major won't generate much income outside of the academic environment.
My experiences in "senior" dating after losing my wife opened my eyes.
While I admire MANY of the millennials who are entrepreneuring (?) and seeming to want to succeed in various endeavors, there are many ....TOO MANY...content to live with MOOOMMMMM and wait for an inheritance.
Few seem even capable of understanding ANY ...economic... principles or construct thereof.
I hope (but fear it's in vain) that enough head in a direction that will HELP the country rather than hinder (or ignore) it.
I'm glad I didn't respond to this thread back in June. What economic stalling? What falling SM? Never ceases to amaze me how quickly things can change. Collectibles continue to muddle along though.
Ummm, Stall? I just had one of my biggest months EVER!!! I am sure things will fall again someday, but trying to predict any of this is an exercise in futility.
It's time in the market, not timing of the market. Had I pulled out in 2009, like some of my partners did, it would have been a disaster, being scared and not knowing when to jump back in.
What has affected my coin budget more than the stock market is the insolvency of the US Gov't and declining reimbursement for health care - we now collect on average 40c on the dollar (medicare and medicaid is less) and a lot of care is just done for free. In spite of Obama care, the homeless and drug addicts are still uninsured and are unpenalized since they don't file tax returns. Homelessness/drugs have become an epidemic in Seattle.
The gov't is stuck between a rock and a hard place - raise interest rates to just 3% and interest on the national debt roughly equals the defense budget - they can't AFFORD to raise rates. We need leaders that recognize that the solvency of the US is important.
The current run-up in the equity markets will probably help coin prices stabilize in the short run. I doubt if much new money will pour into coins or other collectibles since their recent "investment" performance is weak or worse. Smart money just isn't going to chase after fading collectibles with high margins.
But then ...
Are equity speculators really "smart money"?
@291fifth every equity trade has a winner and a loser, depending on the subsequent performance of the asset. There are always reasons not to invest in equities but the Dow has risen from 60-something in 1900 to 19,000-plus today. On any given day the odds are greater that the Dow will go up rather than go down.
Kind regards,
George
Not if I make a purchase. If I do ... sell as fast as you can!
Nov. 2016 Stocks/ housing at all time highs. Looks like the PCGS 3000 indicator trying to find a bottom. My guess is that rare coin market will recover in 2017.
BTW regarding the dollar. I was traveling in Mexico back in the 80's when the government over nite moved the decimal on the peso 2 places. My 100 peso was now 1 Peso Nuevo. That was a interesting trip!
100% Positive BST transactions
Coin collecting is a hobby, not an "equity" investment.
Enjoy the hobby. Learn from it. Expand your historical perceptions with it, but don't confuse it with a monetary investment.
The rise in the stock market is having me consider making more purchases
I, too, buy more coins, and more expensive coins, when the stock market, and my particular holdings, are rising.
When my stocks are down, I postpone spending on coins until better times (which, so far, have always returned, eventually)
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry