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Interesting WSJ article on model trains--any relevance to coins?
Longacre
Posts: 16,717 ✭✭✭
There was an interesting article in the WSJ yesterday about collecting model trains and setting up complex model train structures and scenery in one’s basement. Although probably some coin collectors also reside in their parent’s basement, the article lamented the fact that young people just do not collect model trains anymore. The article mentioned that most model train collectors are in their 80s and 90s, which is a year or two older than the average coin collector, and mentioned that it is a dying hobby with no new fresh blood coming into the collecting sphere.
Longacre has a neighbor down the street who is very much into model trains and hangs in his basement with them, but he is in his late 40s, and is an IT guy at a big insurance company, which is not an unsurprising profile of a model train guy. I’ve frequently asked him if he wears his little hat as he runs his trains, which he does not seem to appreciate.
Does the aging of the collectors in the model train market have any relevance to the coin market, or is our industry different? Personally, I would have no problem admitting that I collect coins, but would probably not be quick to admit to model trains.
Longacre has a neighbor down the street who is very much into model trains and hangs in his basement with them, but he is in his late 40s, and is an IT guy at a big insurance company, which is not an unsurprising profile of a model train guy. I’ve frequently asked him if he wears his little hat as he runs his trains, which he does not seem to appreciate.
Does the aging of the collectors in the model train market have any relevance to the coin market, or is our industry different? Personally, I would have no problem admitting that I collect coins, but would probably not be quick to admit to model trains.
Always took candy from strangers
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
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One has perceived value while the other is a toy.
My dad liked model trains, which got me interested in antique pocket watches, specifically railroad grade watches. I tried on a pair of the pinstriped overalls and got dizzy when I looked down at them, so that was a no-go for me...I kept the eight point engineer cap though.
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Does the aging of the collectors in the model train market have any relevance to the coin market, or is our industry different? Personally, I would have no problem admitting that I collect coins, but would probably not be quick to admit to model trains.
Trains are less ubiquitous in most young peoples lives today. Unfortunately, so are coins.
Because nostalgic value rarely lasts more than two or three generations, I would expect coins to hold their appeal and value better than trains in the long run.
The distinction can be applied within the coin market as well. I would expect ancients and colonials to hold their value better in the long run than the key date 20th century issues many of us dreamed of owning when we were kids filling Whitman folders.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Coins and trains are both collected largely for their historic and nostalgic value. With coins, history is the larger factor. With trains, nostalgia is the larger factor.
Because nostalgic value rarely lasts more than two or three generations, I would expect coins to hold their appeal and value better than trains in the long run.
The distinction can be applied within the coin market as well. I would expect ancients and colonials to hold their value better in the long run than the key date 20th century issues many of us dreamed of owning when we were kids filling Whitman folders.
^ This
As certain collections/items gain popularity, others lose. Trains is a good example of that. Some collections gaining popularity are "vintage" computers, video games and video game consoles, vintage basketball sneakers (jordans) and other items. I joked about LordMarcovan's iPhone 3 being a collectors item one day, but with all of the brand loyalty to Android and Apple, there are people who will one day want to have an example of every single Apple product, especially when many get thrown out or "traded-in" for $10 after the new version is release. One of the first Apple computers sold for over $1,000,000 not too long ago....
Collecting will never go away, humans are hoarders by nature and we will never lose the instinct. Our tastes of what will be popular to hoard will change!
There are countless reasons a collectible can fall in or out of favor but in the case of model trains one has to suspect it's the loss of popularity in giving them as gifts to young children. Most toys now days are plastic and are often "branded". Model trains became expensive relative to plastic so we proletariat gave them as gifts less frequently and new collectors weren't generated.
This exact same thing happened to the coin hobby between 1965 and 1995. When the government switched to clad the common wisdom was that the new coins weren't collectible and people stopped collecting. By 1995 the hobby was dying and many coins had lost their entire numismatic premium. It was only the increased interest in moderns that sparked coins back to life and by 1997 the market was recoving. In '99 the states coins completed this recovery by drawing countless millions of baby boomers who had collected as children back into the hobby.
Coins are a little different anyway because there is a broad base of things that appeal to all collectors such as precious metals and the very fact it is MONEY. They are appealing because they circulate and tell tales about the economy and mathematics. Their prices reflect supply and demand and show changes rather dramatically. There are larger numbers of coin collectors so more opportunity for socializing. Coins are ubiquitous so a coin collector can even entertain himself while standing on line in the grocery.
For the main part modeld train collecting does not well model coin collecting. Numismatics might wane someday but it will never die and will become a specialty for the few. There will be many precursors and it's a safe bet it won't happen for years after coins are no longer produced.
I've written extensively on this topic, namely here.
Coin Rarities Online
Choo Choo Charlie was his name, we hear.
He had an engine and he sure had fun
He used Good & Plenty candy to make his train run.
Charlie says “Love my Good & Plenty!”
Charlie says “Really rings my bell!”
Charlie says “Love my Good & Plenty!”
Don’t know any other candy that I love so well!
Many, if not most "old line" hobbies are in decline. Young people just don't seem interested. One exception is radio control, where drones have reinvigorated the hobby. Is there anything akin to drones on the numismatic horizon ... or on the horizon for model trains?
Yes, you will have to register your gold and silver just like your drone.
Well, maybe there is just a little hyperbole in that statement.
Way different, one hobby is bulky and takes room, the other can fit into a cabinet.
One has perceived value while the other is a toy.
Many older Lionel, Marx, Dorfan, American Flyer and Marklin train sets are quite rare, very collectible and valued at tens of thousands of dollars. Many are far from just being considered " a toy". They also have significant perceived value to those in the know.
In this age of smartphones, video games, televised elite athletic events, trashy reality shows, drones etc young folks find little interest in trains or coins is what I have observed. Both are dying out in my opinion. There will always be some collectors and high rollers investing in parts of each hobby but in general the number of people participating in each area as a hobby is in steep decline.
Omniplex Toy Train layout
This exact same thing happened to the coin hobby between 1965 and 1995. When the government switched to clad the common wisdom was that the new coins weren't collectible and people stopped collecting. By 1995 the hobby was dying and many coins had lost their entire numismatic premium. It was only the increased interest in moderns that sparked coins back to life and by 1997 the market was recovering. In '99 the states coins completed this recovery by drawing countless millions of baby boomers who had collected as children back into the hobby....
It was a lot more than the state quarters, moderns, etc. that sparked the market back to life in 1995-1996. And this applies to most collectibles, not just coins. The coin market was rather robust from 1971-1980 and then 1982-1990. While collecting in Whitman folders may have waned, the investor side of the rare coin market boomed. And then came PCGS to boom it further. That 1990 blow out took 5-6 years to recover. Part of that was a nationwide recession. By 1995-1996 collectibles had bottomed out across the board, from classic cars to coins. Real Estate bottomed then as well.
What also bottomed in 1999-2001 were the gold and silver markets. The Asian currency crisis added to the mess in 1998 and then "Brown's bottom" in 1990-2001 as Britain sold off nearly half of their gold reserves to keep the price of gold depressed. State quarters weren't even in the top 10 factors for getting collectibles and coins back on track in 1999-2001. I'd say bullion prices at 20 year lows was far bigger (and the US dollar at a 15 year high along with the Yen at long term lows). The US stock market blow off in 1998-2000 also timed into the resurgence of precious metals, collectibles, and commodities. Toss oil in there as a biggie too as it bottomed in late 1998 at $10/bl. One could say that after 1995 it was just "time" for a cyclic change.
The Eliasberg and Pittman auctions in 1996-1998 along with NGC and PCGS loosening grading a bit in 1997-1999 also fueled the turnaround for top quality rare coins. I've always considered those sales as the starting gun being fired for rare coins. State quarter buyers were not a factor at those two major auctions. State quarters didn't lure me back into the coin market in 1999. But, cheap gold and silver and classic coins did.
U.S. Type Set
I'm actually having more fun though with these new fangled HO scale slot cars. I've been on a waiting list for over 14 months to have a custom track built and the builder emailed me yesterday and asked if the design I wanted 14 months ago is still the design I want now so it sounds like he's getting ready to start on mine as I know there were only 2 people ahead of me last month. Yipee
Here's a Vette squaring off with a Ferarri. Can anyone spot the error?
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
It was a lot more than the state quarters, moderns, etc. that sparked the market back to life in 1995-1996. And this applies to most collectibles, not just coins. The coin market was rather robust from 1971-1980 and then 1982-1990. While collecting in Whitman folders may have waned, the investor side of the rare coin market boomed. And then came PCGS to boom it further. That 1990 blow out took 5-6 years to recover. Part of that was a nationwide recession. By 1995-1996 collectibles had bottomed out across the board, from classic cars to coins. Real Estate bottomed then as well.
I'm sure there's a lot of truth to what you say. Perhaps I should say the modern segment of the coin hobby recovered first rather than that it necessarily revived the hobby. It seemed at the time there was a little cause and effect but the classic market would, no doubt, have recovered anyway.
And, of course, the hobby wasn't "dead" in 1995 since there was still trade and activity in the high priced older coins. Most of the hobby was so quiet it seemed to be virtually at death's door.
Based on anecdotal evidence and experience in the market at that time I must disagree. There were enormnous numbers of baby boomers returning to the hobby and every single one I spoke with told me the states quarters had revived their interests. They came back and they wanted the coins they couldn't afford as children like the '09-S VDB cent.
This was like a shot of adrenaline for classic coins and it didn't hurt moderns either.
The Eliasberg and Pittman auctions in 1996-1998 along with NGC and PCGS loosening grading a bit in 1997-1999 also fueled the turnaround for top quality rare coins. I've always considered those sales as the starting gun being fired for rare coins. State quarter buyers were not a factor at those two major auctions. State quarters didn't lure me back into the coin market in 1999. But, cheap gold and silver and classic coins did.
I think some of this was more effect than cause but I agree there was a lot going on.
State quarter buyers are much more a force of the future than the past or present. They will be back and they will be the next generation of collectors.
Hey, just like in any collectible field, all it takes is a "little" money. I live in Silicon Valley. There's a guy (say 50'ish in age) less than a mile from here as the crow flies who put in his own miniature train and tracks on his property (the kind of train where you SIT on the engine and cars). Every now and then while walking by his property I see him riding his train around his 3ish acre property...
I have to believe space related material as well as tokens, medals, and coins will be a growth area in the future as will be old electronics and IC's.
I grew up within a few miles of the Lionel headquarters and still have all those trains my parents got us when my brother and I were children, some of them are the cast iron engines etc and are all in boxes wrapped in newspapers from the date in 1969 when I put them all away.
The pre-WW2 cast Lionel's are the ones to have. One of the low #Steam Engines & Tender brought $3,600 in 1991. Thanks for starting this thread Longacre, been reminiscing all day
in Milwaukee, and the both start with K.
I bought several sets for my kids, normally Christmas, and they played a bit, but they took up too much space, and the train went it's circuit over and over, eventually boring.
The trains are about 5 layers down on the downsizing list.
I did find about 20 slot cars, in various stages of destruction, bodies, chassis, etc., while I was cleaning out my parents house. It took about a month, and 5 ebay listings, but they all went away, netted about $200, for a box of stuff that my wife would have just thrown away.
I have a set of the 1/24 scale slot cars, about 8" long. It is in the 2nd layer of stuff to be purged.
Ebay never ceases to amaze me. Apparently, nothing is really rare, just not available locally, so it seems rare. Anything can be sold, given enough time. I just sold my old Army flak vest that I had, still had a chunk of a mortar round embedded in it, but I wish the vest would have been a wee bit bigger.
Here's a Vette squaring off with a Ferarri. Can anyone spot the error?
They appear to be driving in the wrong direction.
http://www.shieldnickels.net
People say that the model train hobby is in trouble. When my wife's uncle died, he left a very large collection of model trains that he thought was worth a great deal of money. As my brother in law tried to sell them, he found that the true amount was a lot less. In the end he realized about $15,000 on a collection that pretty much filled a POD. The buyer, which was the only "cash on the barrel" bidder out of three contacts, advised him that prices were declining because new blood was not getting into the hobby.
Yet when I go to train shows there are still lots of children there. Their parents and grandparents are buying equipment and the big room, which is the size of large local coin show is crowded. Go figure.
large train set-up over his garage. The set we had disappeared over the years.... my Mom gave it away to my cousins I think.... Cheers, RickO
I'm not sure the moral is here but if you take something apart either put it back together or throw it away.
That's a very nice layout BillJones. ...Very realistic.
My wife's uncle passed away at 93 four years ago. He had a model train, fairly large in size, that he was given as a child in the 1920's. Great condition, all engines, cars, track and other items present. Plus original packaging that the train set came in. Made of metal, with high quality detail and painting of the engine and cars. His wife is in her late 80's and has the train and cars on display in custom built cabinets he built years ago. In us gorgeous and likely valuable.
My 1866 Philly Mint Set
Now, to be saleable, a coin has to have a TPG slab AND a thumbs up from CAC.
Same thing happened to the stamp market. Unless you have the only certified cover addressed to G. Washington that went from Bumf*ch, Egypt to Mt. Vernon your stamp does not have value.
QDB said 30 years ago (it seems) that the coin market is thinly capitalized. It's even more thinly capitalized now than it was then.
Most shows are failures in that the very large majority of coins that dealers cart from show-to-show garner no interest. There isn't a buyer in the house.
Who needs a choice 11-S Lincoln in XF at bid? Nobody.
I may be exaggerating slightly for effect, but you get the point.
Wake up. The coin hobby is dying too.
Now, to be saleable, a coin has to have a TPG slab AND a thumbs up from CAC.
Same thing happened to the stamp market. Unless you have the only certified cover addressed to G. Washington that went from Bumf*ch, Egypt to Mt. Vernon your stamp does not have value.
QDB said 30 years ago (it seems) that the coin market is thinly capitalized. It's even more thinly capitalized now than it was then.
Most shows are failures in that the very large majority of coins that dealers cart from show-to-show garner no interest. There isn't a buyer in the house.
Who needs a choice 11-S Lincoln in XF at bid? Nobody.
I may be exaggerating slightly for effect, but you get the point.
Even if you're right there's another generation of collectors coming.
In the meantime special coins will still go for good money and many collectors will still collect.
It probably won't get worse than it was in 1995 when that '11-S Lincoln retailed at 20% of catalog and buyers were nowhere to be found.
I've seen no indication that the hobby is all that weak right now.
Wake up. The coin hobby is dying too.
Now, to be saleable, a coin has to have a TPG slab AND a thumbs up from CAC.
Same thing happened to the stamp market. Unless you have the only certified cover addressed to G. Washington that went from Bumf*ch, Egypt to Mt. Vernon your stamp does not have value.
QDB said 30 years ago (it seems) that the coin market is thinly capitalized. It's even more thinly capitalized now than it was then.
The TPGs have only conquered the US and Canada. CAC is still working on the US, and just the US. So even if things go wrong in the US, the rest of the world will happily continue collecting. (Frankly, when it comes to existential threats to the hobby, I'm far more concerned about counterfeiting than about the mess with grading.)
And as for the coin market being thinly capitalized, I expect that you will be amazed to see how much money is available to buy coins when things start looking up.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Nice Layout Mr Bill ! Is that a "N" gauge layout?
It is an HO layout. There are no "collectable" HO trains. The money you spend on these is just about "gone."