Lets be real what you should pay for a coin or be paid for a coin is difficult to determine

Realone · October 30, 2015 1:20AM

The reason is because if auction prices are the number one source for pricing they are often flawed. Isn't it true that very often the consignor is pushing up the price for his own coin during an auction whether a reserve is set or not. And isn't it true that when a non consignor sees a coin that matches what he owns he/she may try to push up the price to ensure that the final price is at or near what he/she previously paid or where he/she would like it to be.
So determining real value is extremely difficult in this day and age, I guess it comes down to how much one wants the coin and that is about it.

And i just named one example of what is wrong with price sources.

telephoto1 · October 30, 2015 1:54AM

Given all the info available at one's fingertips it shouldn't be that difficult unless it is either a very thinly traded item or the owner or would-be buyer has unrealistic expectations of what the coin is worth. Between auction comps, online sale comps, and myriad wholesale and retail value guides it shouldn't be that hard to value the vast preponderance of numismatic items.

TigersFan2 · October 30, 2015 2:00AM

I think the premise of the OP's point really only applies to the more expensive, one-of-a-kind coins that aren't frequently traded in the market. Sort of like trying to determine comps on selling/buying Michael Jackson's Neverland Ranch. But for most coins that are not significantly unique from other coins being sold (the lower price coins), there are lots of comps such that the market value is already been established. For example, a PCGS MS-63 common-date Morgan regularly sells for $55-65. Lots of auctions, sales, etc. such that the price range is already established and no single buyer or seller has much market power to move it up or down.

Now an 1893-S Morgan in MS-64, yes, then what's a fair price to buy or sell has quite a lot of room as there aren't as many comps.

pruebas · October 30, 2015 2:01AM

As long as those "pushing up the price" are willing to buy the coin should they win it, how is that not creating a valid market price?

kaz · October 30, 2015 2:43AM

Doug Winter has an interesting recent blog entry on auction prices realized:

Doug Winter on APR's

BAJJERFAN · October 30, 2015 3:00AM

Originally posted by: Realone

Originally posted by: pruebas

As long as those "pushing up the price" are willing to buy the coin should they win it, how is that not creating a valid market price?

If the worst case is owning your coin again albeit paying a fee although it could still be at a fair price is the consequence, no biggie. I talk to collectors all the time that say they push up others auction lots so as to support the price levels of their own coins, or that they may buy the auction lot if it goes too cheap again to try to support prices for their own similar coins.

Bottomline is you cannot really trust all price sources since you don't know the behind the scenes bidding. And that is why you must have a feel for what YOU believe the values should be based on your inner sense. After all the prices guides are just that, guides based on a whole slue of sourcing and you have to ask your elf which came first the chicken or the egg the price guide price or sale.

My elf [clever little thing that he is] says that sales precede price guides. But you are right, it's hard to gauge the true motivation behind a bidder's bid/s.

RichieURich · October 30, 2015 9:12AM

In addition, someone may buy a coin at auction for $x but have been willing to pay $x + a lot more. So is the coin's value is x or x + something?

And, auction prices realized don't take into account the fact that some of the potential bidders may have missed that lot for some reason. For example, I purchased a coin for around $10K in an auction that should have sold for around $40K. It turned out that the other potential bidders all missed the lot for one reason or another. I ended up selling the coin to one of those potential bidders, a very sophisticated collector who understood the value of the coin, for over $30K. So if you were using the auction price history to determine market price, you would have used $10K, but the true market price was the amount the collector paid, which was over $30K.

Also, just looking at the price realized for a coin with a certain date and grade doesn't consider that some weak examples for the grade might have brought lower prices, and some very strong examples might have brought higher prices. For example, 1881-S Morgans in MS-66 have been auctioned during 2014 - 2015 for a range of $210 to $8,813. So what is an 1881-S Morgan worth in MS-66?

291fifth · October 30, 2015 9:42AM

When markets are thin, as they often are in the upper reaches of collecting, prices can vary greatly based on the arrival or departure of enthusiastic, wealthy collectors.

Avoid irrational exuberance when buying.

TwoSides2aCoin · October 30, 2015 9:57AM

Everything I want costs more than it used to, and nearly always more than I would like to pay. I can buy stuff I don't want, at a discount, every day.

TahoeDale · October 30, 2015 11:27AM

There is a big(huge) range for scarce and pretty vs non-appealing coins of the same grade. So yes, it is difficult to price a particular coin. And the guides and auction records

do not help much, in many cases.

Add in the present demand(or not) for the series, or individual date, and it gets more complicated. How about 8k vs 40 k for the 12-s lib nickel in 66. Was it cac approved, a possible + upgrade?

What about the guides for the 1885 lib nickel in MS 67? Now there are 3 67's. Are they all worth 170K bec. the guides say so?

Just keep on looking at the variances, and we can get really confused

BAJJERFAN · October 30, 2015 11:49AM

Originally posted by: RichieURich

In addition, someone may buy a coin at auction for $x but have been willing to pay $x + a lot more. So is the coin's value is x or x + something?

And, auction prices realized don't take into account the fact that some of the potential bidders may have missed that lot for some reason. For example, I purchased a coin for around $10K in an auction that should have sold for around $40K. It turned out that the other potential bidders all missed the lot for one reason or another. I ended up selling the coin to one of those potential bidders, a very sophisticated collector who understood the value of the coin, for over $30K. So if you were using the auction price history to determine market price, you would have used $10K, but the true market price was the amount the collector paid, which was over $30K.

Also, just looking at the price realized for a coin with a certain date and grade doesn't consider that some weak examples for the grade might have brought lower prices, and some very strong examples might have brought higher prices. For example, 1881-S Morgans in MS-66 have been auctioned during 2014 - 2015 for a range of $210 to $8,813. So what is an 1881-S Morgan worth in MS-66?

At least $210. The one didn't bring $8,813 because it was a 1881-S Morgan tho. An 1880-S or 82-S or 79-S with the same toning likely would have brought the same price or close to it.

coindeuce · October 30, 2015 12:15PM

If one is prudent enough to have diversification in many different asset classes, then safety valves are less critical. Being a total coin geek is dangerous.

jayPem · October 30, 2015 4:03PM

Gettin real with the Real One ...

Type2 · October 30, 2015 5:27PM

Get real.

DeepCoin · October 31, 2015 2:45AM

It all depends upon which side of the table you sit on. Dealers typically want PCGS price guide for common coins without any special attribute. If you are selling a similar coin, your choices are the wild west of eBay, the BST board here, auction houses and independent dealers (the other side of the table). Each has pluses and minuses and you have to discern where you can get the most for your coin and if you can sell it in that manner.

Buying requires vigilance for soft spots in auctions, knowing your series and learning how to make friends with and negotiate reasonably with dealers. The cheapest coin in a grade is typically not the best coin.

So for me, it is fairly simple to know what to pay or expect to be paid for a coin that is not a thinly traded expensive coin, but rather one that trades reasonably often in the market as I believe in efficient markets.

RYK · October 31, 2015 2:51AM

Anything over face (or melt for gold and silver) is a crapshoot.

winky · October 31, 2015 3:51AM

Always hoard all the key dates or variety's.

CoinRaritiesOnline · October 31, 2015 4:57AM

Lets be real what you should pay for a coin or be paid for a coin is difficult to determine

Unless you're talking about something extremely esoteric, I don't think it is really that difficult.

unclebob · October 31, 2015 5:32AM

I just picked an unattributed and rather scarce VAM. About ten graded in MS63/64. Mine is slabbed MS63 and the auction results have a dozen total across all grades. Last two MS63's went for about $2K and $3K respectively in 2014 and a PCGS MS62 example went on Ebay for $1500 in the past week. It's not an unattractive MS63 and prettier than my generic same date MS63 toner. I will send it in for reholder and resist flipping it but I think it fits in this discussion. Guessing scarce enough to support a current $2000-2500 retail/auction number, but my question will the VAM community grow enough to support another 10 examples over the next decade? I'd hate to see it decline in value.

Zoins · October 31, 2015 5:34AM

Originally posted by: Realone

Originally posted by: CoinRaritiesOnline

Lets be real what you should pay for a coin or be paid for a coin is difficult to determine

Unless you're talking about something extremely esoteric, I don't think it is really that difficult.

That and extremely rare and/or high end i exactly what I am speaking about. Generics are pretty simple didn't think that subject was worth writing about, that you'll understood. My bad , next time I will be clearer.

For esoteric pieces, it depends on who's in the market. It would be good to know who the players are and whether the are accumulating or reducing their collections.

ctf_error_coins · October 31, 2015 5:41AM

Try error coin pricing ........

Elcontador · October 31, 2015 6:09AM

Originally posted by: TahoeDale
There is a big(huge) range for scarce and pretty vs non-appealing coins of the same grade. So yes, it is difficult to price a particular coin. And the guides and auction records

do not help much, in many cases.

Add in the present demand(or not) for the series, or individual date, and it gets more complicated. How about 8k vs 40 k for the 12-s lib nickel in 66. Was it cac approved, a possible + upgrade?

Just keep on looking at the variances, and we can get really confused

Most of the 12 S Nickels I've seen in MS 66 look so nasty, the only way I'd touch them is with latex gloves, and that's after making sure I was current on my tetanus vaccination, irrespective of what else is or is not on the holder.

Cougar1978 · October 31, 2015 6:54AM

Auctions can be either a liquidation for next to nothing during the Summer Doldrums or some uniquie / rare piece bid up into the stratosphere by collectors in a bid war with the winner being the end user. Auction prices can vary wildly especially when RB toners thrown in the mix.

For pricing coins to sell at retail, I review multiple sources like Dealer Pricelists, CW Trends, Relative TPG Price Guide, and CDN Bid x my markup over bid. Its not really rocket science, I just simply try to get between cost and retail while making a decent profit.

ColonelJessup · October 31, 2015 10:57AM

I have five 1927-D Saints, one MS66. I'm going to drive up CDN bid and sell them out the back door. . . .

. . .

MrEureka · October 31, 2015 11:39AM

I think you're better off focusing on what you're getting for your money than focusing on what other people may or may not have gotten for their money.

Lets be real what you should pay for a coin or be paid for a coin is difficult to determine

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