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Lets be real what you should pay for a coin or be paid for a coin is difficult to determine
Realone
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The reason is because if auction prices are the number one source for pricing they are often flawed. Isn't it true that very often the consignor is pushing up the price for his own coin during an auction whether a reserve is set or not. And isn't it true that when a non consignor sees a coin that matches what he owns he/she may try to push up the price to ensure that the final price is at or near what he/she previously paid or where he/she would like it to be.
So determining real value is extremely difficult in this day and age, I guess it comes down to how much one wants the coin and that is about it.
And i just named one example of what is wrong with price sources.
So determining real value is extremely difficult in this day and age, I guess it comes down to how much one wants the coin and that is about it.
And i just named one example of what is wrong with price sources.
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RIP Mom- 1932-2012
Now an 1893-S Morgan in MS-64, yes, then what's a fair price to buy or sell has quite a lot of room as there aren't as many comps.
Doug Winter on APR's
As long as those "pushing up the price" are willing to buy the coin should they win it, how is that not creating a valid market price?
If the worst case is owning your coin again albeit paying a fee although it could still be at a fair price is the consequence, no biggie. I talk to collectors all the time that say they push up others auction lots so as to support the price levels of their own coins, or that they may buy the auction lot if it goes too cheap again to try to support prices for their own similar coins.
Bottomline is you cannot really trust all price sources since you don't know the behind the scenes bidding. And that is why you must have a feel for what YOU believe the values should be based on your inner sense. After all the prices guides are just that, guides based on a whole slue of sourcing and you have to ask your elf which came first the chicken or the egg the price guide price or sale.
My elf [clever little thing that he is] says that sales precede price guides. But you are right, it's hard to gauge the true motivation behind a bidder's bid/s.
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And, auction prices realized don't take into account the fact that some of the potential bidders may have missed that lot for some reason. For example, I purchased a coin for around $10K in an auction that should have sold for around $40K. It turned out that the other potential bidders all missed the lot for one reason or another. I ended up selling the coin to one of those potential bidders, a very sophisticated collector who understood the value of the coin, for over $30K. So if you were using the auction price history to determine market price, you would have used $10K, but the true market price was the amount the collector paid, which was over $30K.
Also, just looking at the price realized for a coin with a certain date and grade doesn't consider that some weak examples for the grade might have brought lower prices, and some very strong examples might have brought higher prices. For example, 1881-S Morgans in MS-66 have been auctioned during 2014 - 2015 for a range of $210 to $8,813. So what is an 1881-S Morgan worth in MS-66?
An authorized PCGS dealer, and a contributor to the Red Book.
Avoid irrational exuberance when buying.
do not help much, in many cases.
Add in the present demand(or not) for the series, or individual date, and it gets more complicated. How about 8k vs 40 k for the 12-s lib nickel in 66. Was it cac approved, a possible + upgrade?
What about the guides for the 1885 lib nickel in MS 67? Now there are 3 67's. Are they all worth 170K bec. the guides say so?
Just keep on looking at the variances, and we can get really confused
In addition, someone may buy a coin at auction for $x but have been willing to pay $x + a lot more. So is the coin's value is x or x + something?
And, auction prices realized don't take into account the fact that some of the potential bidders may have missed that lot for some reason. For example, I purchased a coin for around $10K in an auction that should have sold for around $40K. It turned out that the other potential bidders all missed the lot for one reason or another. I ended up selling the coin to one of those potential bidders, a very sophisticated collector who understood the value of the coin, for over $30K. So if you were using the auction price history to determine market price, you would have used $10K, but the true market price was the amount the collector paid, which was over $30K.
Also, just looking at the price realized for a coin with a certain date and grade doesn't consider that some weak examples for the grade might have brought lower prices, and some very strong examples might have brought higher prices. For example, 1881-S Morgans in MS-66 have been auctioned during 2014 - 2015 for a range of $210 to $8,813. So what is an 1881-S Morgan worth in MS-66?
At least $210. The one didn't bring $8,813 because it was a 1881-S Morgan tho. An 1880-S or 82-S or 79-S with the same toning likely would have brought the same price or close to it.
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Buying requires vigilance for soft spots in auctions, knowing your series and learning how to make friends with and negotiate reasonably with dealers. The cheapest coin in a grade is typically not the best coin.
So for me, it is fairly simple to know what to pay or expect to be paid for a coin that is not a thinly traded expensive coin, but rather one that trades reasonably often in the market as I believe in efficient markets.
Unless you're talking about something extremely esoteric, I don't think it is really that difficult.
Coin Rarities Online
Unless you're talking about something extremely esoteric, I don't think it is really that difficult.
That and extremely rare and/or high end i exactly what I am speaking about. Generics are pretty simple didn't think that subject was worth writing about, that you'll understood. My bad , next time I will be clearer.
For esoteric pieces, it depends on who's in the market. It would be good to know who the players are and whether the are accumulating or reducing their collections.
There is a big(huge) range for scarce and pretty vs non-appealing coins of the same grade. So yes, it is difficult to price a particular coin. And the guides and auction records
do not help much, in many cases.
Add in the present demand(or not) for the series, or individual date, and it gets more complicated. How about 8k vs 40 k for the 12-s lib nickel in 66. Was it cac approved, a possible + upgrade?
Just keep on looking at the variances, and we can get really confused
Most of the 12 S Nickels I've seen in MS 66 look so nasty, the only way I'd touch them is with latex gloves, and that's after making sure I was current on my tetanus vaccination, irrespective of what else is or is not on the holder.
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For pricing coins to sell at retail, I review multiple sources like Dealer Pricelists, CW Trends, Relative TPG Price Guide, and CDN Bid x my markup over bid. Its not really rocket science, I just simply try to get between cost and retail while making a decent profit.
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