Is the plunge in gold prices having any effect on the pricing of numismatic coins?

bidask · July 19, 2015 12:00PM

Not bullion coin pricing.....

Numismatic coin pricing ......?

Cougar1978 · July 19, 2015 12:14PM

It will soften demand and put downward pressure on prices of numismatic coins. Every numismatic gold coin has a portion of its value related to its gold BV. Of course this would be dampened in instances where the BV is not a huge portion of the coins total value.

It could take awhile for this impact to be really felt - gold could recover or for that matter plunge. Better date coins / rarieties may not be impacted at all. Only time will tell. I can't see CC or branch mint gold taking a hit anytime soon.

For the investor the choice is to hold to plan bullion position no matter what or sell in a down market at a loss to avoid further losses.

I have no interest in selling my gold coins at a loss and will hold current prices which allow profit. If push comes to shove, will simply take them off the market and fill that vacant portion of my cases at shows / online store with more US / World Currency until bullion prices rebound. Sort of like a football game where we simply go to a different offensive formation with slightly different personnel inserted in the game for that particular strategy.

I know of many in my coin club who buy x Dollars worth of gold coins a month. So demand from these buyers will remain strong
as they see downward prices as an opportunity to build up their position even more. In 2008 when gold plunged I took my gold coins off the market and simply bought more to put away at the lesser prices. I believe the quantity of my gold coins even doubled. Then in 2011 when it went way up, took them back out of hiding and sold quite a bit of it. I have never been able to really predict gold prices.

A co worker was telling me his plans of increasing his gold coin portfolio with what he felt will be a fall in gold to say $800 barely three weeks ago. About a week later he died in his sleep at the age of 58. Things don't always work out as planned.

CoinZip · July 19, 2015 12:23PM

Is the plunge in gold prices having any effect on the pricing of numismatic coins?

some coins yes some coins no. I would venture to say common date, lower grade coins follow PM's prices. Rare & high grade gold coins should not be affected.

MrEureka · July 19, 2015 12:41PM

Tough to say. On the one hand, rare coin investors tend to shy away from the market when gold is trending lower, and that sends (and has sent) many rare coin prices lower. But on the other hand, gold has now been in decline for so long that investor demand for rare coins cannot go significantly lower. In other words, any damage that declining bullion prices have done to rare coin prices has, for the most part, already been done.

bidask · July 19, 2015 12:46PM

<< Tough to say. On the one hand, rare coin investors tend to shy away from the market when gold is trending lower, and that sends (and has sent) many rare coin prices lower. But on the other hand, gold has now been in decline for so long that investor demand for rare coins cannot go significantly lower. In other words, any damage that declining bullion prices have done to rare coin prices has, for the most part, already been done. >>

So it sounds you believe we are close to a bottom regards pricing on numismatic coins?

MrEureka · July 19, 2015 12:52PM

So it sounds you believe we are close to a bottom regards pricing on numismatic coins?

Not necessarily. Bullion prices are only one factor driving the market. Other factors include changes in economic growth, interest rates, the popularity of the hobby and confidence in third-party grading.

Analyst · July 19, 2015 1:53PM

MrEureka: << Other factors include changes in economic growth, interest rates, the popularity of the hobby and confidence in third-party grading. >>

From my perspective, the main factor is enthusiasm for rare coins among people who can afford them.

In terms of results for rarities, the Stack's-Bowers auction in Baltimore seems to have gone well. The person who paid about $112k for an 1828 quarter was probably not concerned about bullion levels. Also, JA tells me that demand for stickered rare coins has remained the same while bullion prices have been declining.

Is There a Price Relationship Between Gold Bullion and Rare Gold Coins?

bidask · July 19, 2015 2:09PM

<< MrEureka: << Other factors include changes in economic growth, interest rates, the popularity of the hobby and confidence in third-party grading. >>

From my perspective, the main factor is enthusiasm for rare coins among people who can afford them.

In terms of results for rarities, the Stack's-Bowers auction in Baltimore seems to have gone well. The person who paid about $112k for an 1828 quarter was probably not concerned about bullion levels. Also, JA tells me that demand for stickered rare coins has remained the same while bullion prices have been declining.

Is There a Price Relationship Between Gold Bullion and Rare Gold Coins? >>

It seems to me that there has been a thinning of true market maker dealers.

Or said another way, as you put it, dealers that can afford to be a marketmaker.

Edit to say if that is true that is not a healthy market.

bidask · July 19, 2015 2:22PM

I wish there were more dealers that made a market in rare coins versus dealers that broker bullion.......there seem to be plenty of those around.

That would be a healthier market imo !!

COALPORTER · July 19, 2015 2:27PM

<< I wish there were more dealers that made a market in rare coins versus dealers that broker bullion.......there seem to be plenty of those around.

That would be a healthier market imo !! >>

.... at least shows aren't announcing gold prices over the PA system every 10 minutes as they were a few years ago....

MrEureka · July 19, 2015 2:39PM

It seems to me that there has been a thinning of true market maker dealers.

Or said another way, as you put it, dealers that can afford to be a marketmaker.

There has indeed been a thinning of "market maker dealers" in rare coins, although it has very little to do with dealers' ability to fund such activities. The exit of "market maker dealers" has more to do with there being less profit in market-making. A good subject for another thread, at another time.

TopographicOceans · July 19, 2015 3:02PM

Sure.

Collectible gold coins follow the price of gold. The go down when gold falls, but not as much and rise probably more when the metal rises.

Overdate · July 19, 2015 3:48PM

Many collectors of numismatic gold coins also have investments tied to the price of bullion, such as mining stocks. So when gold prices hit a multi-year downtrend, which is the case now, these collectors see some of their spending power evaporate, and as a consequence their coin purchasing budgets shrink. This can reduce demand for some numismatic gold coins, leading to lower prices.

bestday · July 20, 2015 12:43AM

<< Sure.

Collectible gold coins follow the price of gold. The go down when gold falls, but not as much and rise probably more when the metal rises. >>

Has the price of Saints dropped to same 5 year lows as gold bullion ?

TwoSides2aCoin · July 20, 2015 12:51AM

I have happy customers willing to pay $3 for manganese brass, zinc, copper and nickel coins with U.S. Presidents on them. Other customers have no qualms about paying $.75 for cupro nickel quarters that I pay $.40 each for with a denomination of $.25. They have U.S. States , Territories and National Parks on them.
I don't think gold has anything to do with it.

Then again, some guys do not see these coins as "numismatic". I do.

ricko · July 20, 2015 1:02AM

Numismatic values are less affected by bullion prices - it is more the market that will cause their prices to rise or fall. Cheers, RickO

roadrunner · July 20, 2015 1:34AM

The market for 5 and 6 figure coins has very little to do with the price of gold. But considering >98% of the market involves transactions from $1 to $9,999, the price of bullion certainly plays a big factor in both dealer and collector spending habits. It doesn't apply to everyone. But it's a large effect. It's also too early to assess the fallout on numismatic coins. That could take weeks or months. Wait until the buildup of collector demand into the mid-August summer ANA passes. That will be a much better time to verify the effects (ie Sept Long Beach).

Cougar1978 · July 22, 2015 12:17AM

The falling gold and silver prices turn my stomach. I get a sick feeling wondering how much they will fall or where the bottom may be.

This weakens the BV portion of the coin but the more damaging impact means slower retail sales. There will always be demand from bulk accumulators seeking to salt away so many pieces / ounces per month. I myself am a bulk accumulator of nice slabbed coins I can buy close to melt, mainly world gold and mods. Usually when bullion starts to fall and the floor many will take their material off the market.

I have always been a fan of nice PCGS 62 and 63 $20 Saints and Libs close to melt along with a few in 64 and 65 simply for Type. Were I to go to a show and blow $5000, I would be looking for nice PCGS 62 and 63 Double Eagles, PCGS 69 AGE, AGB etc. I am not a fan of expensive, top pop registry coins. I do buy a lot of nice classic PCGS Dollars and Commems in the $300 range and under which fits in with my risk management criteria for my ebay store. Expensive coins over say $500 I prefer to take to a show when I occassionally set up.

The good news with falling bullion is you can now buy more of it and possible pick off some numismatic cons due to weakened retail demand. Jim in the coin club (not his real name) has dropped his offering price on predominately numismatic coins from 70% of TPG market value to 60%. He gives the reason "extremely slow retail sales due to current market conditions." He ran into some resistance from a seller (needing to liquidate) of about 50 pieces on this initially, but when the seller shopped them around to area shops he came back to Jim.

DeepCoin · July 22, 2015 1:32AM

I am of the opposite opinion with regard to demand and gold pricing. I sold all my gold except for minor small type pieces when gold hit $900. I missed the run up to the top and also the ride back down in the elevator. Same is true for silver as I sold all my bullion at the same time. It was just too speculative to me. When gold hits 800 / 900 again I will probably get back in, but not in a bullion manner.

I think collectors will avidly begin collecting numismatic gold again when the price drops below $1,000. That is just MHO, but I know there is sentiment in that area from discussions with other collectors who feel they were priced out of the gold collecting market by the high price of gold since the run up. When you can buy a MS62 $20 of any date for under $1,000 I think there will be a rise in demand over the current situation.

OPA · July 22, 2015 1:42AM

<< The market for 5 and 6 figure coins has very little to do with the price of gold. But considering >98% of the market involves transactions from $1 to $9,999, the price of bullion certainly plays a big factor in both dealer and collector spending habits. It doesn't apply to everyone. But it's a large effect. It's also too early to assess the fallout on numismatic coins. That could take weeks or months. Wait until the buildup of collector demand into the mid-August summer ANA passes. That will be a much better time to verify the effects (ie Sept Long Beach). >>

From my own personal experience...rr hit the nail square on the head with the above comment.

19Lyds · July 22, 2015 2:06AM

Yes. It's getting tougher and tougher to even consider selling the 2011-W Silver Eagles I purchased from the US Mint at $60.95 each.
On the plus side, since Silver is down around $15 an ounce, the price of the Collector version Silver Eagles should be coming down to the 2008 prices of $25.95 each.

NOT! Still $39.95 each.

veryfine · July 22, 2015 2:24AM

<< I think collectors will avidly begin collecting numismatic gold again when the price drops below $1,000. That is just MHO, but I know there is sentiment in that area from discussions with other collectors who feel they were priced out of the gold collecting market by the high price of gold since the run up. When you can buy a MS62 $20 of any date for under $1,000 I think there will be a rise in demand over the current situation. >>

Yes, very true, and you are describing me.
I've been waiting and waiting to buy a nice MS62 or AU58 $20 Liberty, but I will continue to wait until gold drops well below $1000. I realize this may not happen soon or may never happen at all, but I really don't care. I will not buy a common date gold coin at current prices. Gold went up in value way too fast and strangely lingered at around $1200 for way too long. $1200 was ridiculously high, but so is $900 or even $800.
Is $700 gold possible?
I hope so.

bestday · July 22, 2015 7:41AM

<< 

<< I think collectors will avidly begin collecting numismatic gold again when the price drops below $1,000. That is just MHO, but I know there is sentiment in that area from discussions with other collectors who feel they were priced out of the gold collecting market by the high price of gold since the run up. When you can buy a MS62 $20 of any date for under $1,000 I think there will be a rise in demand over the current situation. >>

Yes, very true, and you are describing me.
I've been waiting and waiting to buy a nice MS62 or AU58 $20 Liberty, but I will continue to wait until gold drops well below $1000. I realize this may not happen soon or may never happen at all, but I really don't care. I will not buy a common date gold coin at current prices. Gold went up in value way too fast and strangely lingered at around $1200 for way too long. $1200 was ridiculously high, but so is $900 or even $800.
Is $700 gold possible?
I hope so. >>

high is what someone wants to pay .. Gold downdraft linked to China stock market crash...Gold down 10 days in a row.. losing over $60 ..rally time next week

roadrunner · July 22, 2015 8:03AM

<< ....I think collectors will avidly begin collecting numismatic gold again when the price drops below $1,000. That is just MHO, but I know there is sentiment in that area from discussions with other collectors who feel they were priced out of the gold collecting market by the high price of gold since the run up. When you can buy a MS62 $20 of any date for under $1,000 I think there will be a rise in demand over the current situation. >>

What you're missing here is that a lot of collectible gold, especially MS62-MS66 generic gold from $1's to $10's, have fallen tremendously since May 2006. That's when the generic gold market peaked last...at $735/oz gold. So that MS65 $3 gold piece at $32,000 back then is $7500 today! A $2500 MS63 $10 Indian from back then went to as low as $875 back in November and March. They cost $1075 today despite the fact that gold has dropped another $50-$100 since that time. Makes sense huh? Gold drops 5% and $10 Indians go up 22%. Same comment for the MS63-65 Saints. They have gone up around 7-10% despite gold going down another 5% to fresh 5 years lows. It's not just about the gold price. You have other things in play like the retail coin market, collector demand, promotions, economy, physical supplies, etc. While the gold price is certainly pushed around by what the paper futures market does in NY, London, and China.....the generic MS gold market doesn't have to beat to those drums. There's not an unlimited supply of MS62-65 $20 Saints to move the market as you can with futures. No doubt there's a lot of them but not unlimited. PCGS has slabbed approx 900K Saints in all grades and 500K in $20 Libs. With a 2-1 resubmission those are probably fair numbers for totals currently in slabs. 1.4 MILL is certainly not unlimited. Very common and very available....but it's also why most $20's in 62 to 64 grade only sell for about 10-25% over their melt value. MS64 silver dollars are at +500% over melt. Circ wheat cents at +85% to melt. It's all relative. How many 100 year old collectibles in mint condition sell for <30% of their intrinsic value?

What makes the $1,000 gold level so special? Collectors are buying MS63 Indians today at levels that are less than half of what they were back in 2006....and around what they cost even in 1991-1993...when gold was $330-$400 oz. It doesn't seem collectors pay all that much attention to the gold price when buying $1's through $10's. If gold drops to $1,000 you might not see any of these gold coins being cheaper, they might go up in value too. Generic gold today (other than the $20's) is selling for levels last seen when gold was in the $300's.....the lowest level seen in the past 37 years is $252/oz. $1,000/oz has very little to do with it. I continue to compare the pricing of MS generic gold coins to the gold mining companies. Both have fallen back to levels seen 15-20 years ago when compared to the gold price. Insane levels. The miners have continued to go down. At least generic gold coins seemed to have a found a floor of some sort (temporary?) in the past few months.

Don't get hung up on the price of gold even for $20 gold pieces. MS64 Saints are around $1330 right now at $1090 gold. They were at $2000-$2200 in Nov 2009 when gold hit $1225 for the first time. Momentum counts....in both directions. For accuracy though, it has to be mentioned that the supply of generic gold has continued to come out of the woodwork since the late 1980's. The supply has swamped pure collector demand at times. But when speculative and investment demands jumps in, maybe that excess can be mopped up. The MS $20's have fared the best because they are the best gold play with the lowest premiums. The smaller gold coins have been rocked.

TwoSides2aCoin · July 22, 2015 8:20AM

In addition to Roadrunner's points about generics, they are like land in that they don't make it anymore. And we can call it generic or excess of what wasn't turned in when that old executive order got signed by Roosevelt back in 1933. Isn't that a sign that ALL the gold didn't get turned in ? It's in excess of collector demand, even after run ups that sent men to the melter for profits. And now we mint them as $50 gold pieces and still pay a premium. So the lesson is : when the price comes down, go for the numismatic coins, not the common stuff that you can get any time. Now, carry on. We survived another day in the bubble.

topstuf · July 22, 2015 8:22AM

The bulk 64 saints I ordered went UP a hunnerd bucks.
They've since backed off a bit to only 65 bucks up.

Analyst · July 27, 2015 6:46AM

Topographic: <<Collectible gold coins follow the price of gold. The go down when gold falls, but not as much and rise probably more when the metal rises.>>

This is not really true. Certainly, there is some correlation, on average, but the correlation coefficient is not large. There are many instances of collectible coins falling in value while gold bullion was rising, and vice versa. Between early 2010 and early 2011, there was a tremendous run-up in the price of gold bullion. Yet, some PCGS graded classic U.S. gold coins actually went down in value during the same period.

Is There a Price Relationship Between Gold Bullion and Rare Gold Coins?

Importantly, although both gold and silver bullion have recently been falling to a substantial extent, rare coins did well, on average, in the recently concluded Stack's-Bowers auction in Baltimore. I conclude that values for silver rarities have remained about the same.

Half Dollars Fare Well in Baltimore Coin Auction; Markets for Silver Rarities Are Stable

Coinsponge · July 27, 2015 7:03AM

I would think so just because of the inverse wealth effect. One solid way to see though may be an analysis of auction prices over the last 3 years.

TwoSides2aCoin · July 27, 2015 9:29AM

Picked up a 1914 $10 gold Eagle. The price was right.

Cougar1978 · July 27, 2015 10:12AM

Plunge in Bullion may not affect certain issues scarce in high grade or in high demand. A serious investor will keep on accumulating and bulking up usually sticking to a plan.

The July 24 CDN reflects higher bids for $5 Libs and Indians in MS64 (780 and 1800 respectively) along with $10 Libs and Indians in MS64 (both now $1430) - I can see savvy buyers cruising the BIN offerings of these on the Bay to pick off one. MS65 Saints advance to $1780 bid. These are wholesale bids, expect to pay higher in a retail transaction.

If I were to spend around $4000 today it would not be on a half cent or penny - It would be a nice $10 Indian in MS64 and beautiful $20 Saint in MS65, PCGS of course. Or perhaps a pair of nice MS65 Saints.

These could be really nice coins to bulk up on.

Analyst · August 5, 2015 12:52PM

Couger: <<Plunge in Bullion may not affect certain issues scarce in high grade or in high demand. A serious investor will keep on accumulating and bulking up usually sticking to a plan.>>

IMO, this is a valid point. It is also true that many rare coins are purchased by non-investing collectors.

CoinSponge: <<One solid way to see though may be an analysis of auction prices over the last 3 years.>>

I have been analyzing the results of most major auctions since 2007 and I analyzed many earlier auctions. Indeed, I have been writing about coin auctions for more than twenty years.

For the last five years, market levels for rare classic U.S. coins have been stable. On average, prices have remained about the same. Of course, some issues have risen in value and others have dropped. Some fluctuate considerably from year to year. On the whole, though, market levels have been abou the same. In my analysis of sales of silver rarities at the recent SBG auction in Baltimore, I did not find evidence that market levels for rarities fell while bullion prices were diving.

Half Dollars Fare Well in Baltimore Coin Auction; Markets for Silver Rarities Are Stable

Rare U.S. Coins Fare Well in FUN Auction: Coin Market Levels Remain Stable

insightful10@gmail.com

derryb · August 5, 2015 12:57PM

With the exception of rarity, of course it is. It leaves some doubt in the minds of potential buyers which in turn reduces demand. Falling demand results in lower prices.

TopographicOceans · August 5, 2015 1:05PM

Collectable coins always follow melt values, but they don't fall as far when gold goes down and tend to rise faster when gold goes up.

Gold is pretty much acting like a commodity nowadays instead of safe-haven like it used to.

One day gold will hit $2,000 oz., but it will probably hit $600 oz. again long before that happens.

s4ny · August 5, 2015 10:08PM

Rising gold prices creates demand for numismatic gold coins.
I bought some AGEs in 2009 and then graduated to MS62 Saints then to
other generic gold.

Next thing, I was buying $3 gold and branch mint gold.

Now, I rarely buy and in fact sold half my Saints when gold was at $1750.

I sold all my "details" coins when gold was $1400.

Waiting and watching.

oih82w8 · August 5, 2015 10:44PM

I may be completely wrong in this analogy;

This is similar to the price of oil in comparison to oil based products, there may be a change but it will be not as timely as the parent product. I get asked this a lot at the car parts store on the price of a quart of oil when the price of gasoline has been dropping, especially since it is hovering around 1.99 for E10 Unleaded.

Analyst · August 6, 2015 5:46AM

DerryB: Falling gold bullion<< leaves some doubt in the minds of potential buyers which in turn reduces demand. >>

TopographicOceans: <<Collectable coins always follow melt values, but they don't fall as far when gold goes down and tend to rise faster when gold goes up.>>

I disagree with the thrust of points by DerryB and Topographic. There is very little connection between bullion and prices for true rarities. Moreover, there was a boom in coin collecting from 1998 to 2007, while bullion prices did not rise all that much, and were nowhere near current bullion levels. Many rare coin prices, in contrast, are a little lower now than peak levels that were reached during the 2006 to mid-2008 period. For many rarities, prices were the about the same when gold was $1900 an ounce as prices for the same coins were when gold was around $1200 an ounce, or lower.

Roadrunner: <<... a lot of collectible gold, especially MS62-MS66 generic gold from $1's to $10's, have fallen tremendously since May 2006. That's when the generic gold market peaked last...at $735/oz gold. So that MS65 $3 gold piece at $32,000 back then is $7500 today! A $2500 MS63 $10 Indian from back then went to as low as $875 back in November and March. They cost $1075 today despite the fact that gold has dropped another $50-$100 since that time.

Roadrunner seems to be implying that bullion prices were not a large factor in the determination of price levels for generic gold in the past. IMO, a review of prices for PCGS graded MS-64 to 66, common date Saints during the late 1980s would provide evidence to support Roadrunner's points in this thread. My expertise, however, is in rare coins, not generics, I stand by my hypothesis that there is very little relationship between prices for truly rare coins and bullion levels.

[L=Is There a Price Relationship Between Gold Bullion and Rare Gold Coins?]http://www.coinweek.com/news/featured-news/is-there-a-price-relationship-between-gold-bullion-and-rare-gold-coins/">The rise in the number of collectors of rare U.S. coins and the importance of the PCGS

Broadstruck · August 6, 2015 5:53AM

No as most of the better dated $10 Indians in AU58 along with the keys have jumped 2-6 times in value since gold was just under $800 an ounce.

Analyst · August 8, 2015 7:55AM

Broadstruck: <<No as most of the better dated $10 Indians in AU58 along with the keys have jumped 2-6 times in value since gold was just under $800 an ounce.>>

According to Kitco.com, 12 months ago, on 08/08/14, gold was above $1300 per ounce. As we know, gold has been below $1100 for more than a few days. So, gold has fallen at least 15.5% over the last 12 months. Data here on pcgs.com suggests that this drop has had little effect on Indian Tens:

8884 1932 $10 MS -64 1,760 1,440 320 +22.2%
8882 1926 $10 MS-64 1,760 1,440 320 +22.2%
8868 1911 $10 MS -64 1,760 1,440 320 +22.2%
8858 Type Motto MS -64 1,760 1,440 320 +22.2%
8883 1930-S $10 MS -64 80,000 69,000 11,000 +15.9%
8869 1911-D $10 MS -62 22,000 19,500 2,500 +12.8%

Again, according to the PCGS price guide today, there are also some PCGS graded, better date Indian Tens that have gone down in value. These lists are not complete.

8863 1909-D $10 MS 63+ 6,500 8,500 -2,000 -23.5%
8862 1909 $10 MS 62+ 1,800 2,350 -550 -23.4%
8859 1908 Motto MS 65 11,500 15,000 -3,500 -23.3%
8866 1910-D $10 MS 64+ 2,500 3,250 -750 -23.1 %

http://www.pcgs.com/prices/pricechanges.aspx?c=779&pre=ms&title=type+4,+with+motto

Are prices for better dates the same on average? I am not sure. The pressing question in relation to this thread, is there much of a connection between gold bullion prices and prices for better date or condition rarity Indian Tens?

One could fairly argue that there is minimal, if any, connection?

Is There a Price Relationship Between Gold Bullion and Rare Gold Coins?

roadrunner · August 8, 2015 9:31AM

<< .... Moreover, there was a boom in coin collecting from 1998 to 2007, while bullion prices did not rise all that much, and were nowhere near current bullion levels. Many rare coin prices, in contrast, are a little lower now than peak levels that were reached during the 2006 to mid-2008 period. For many rarities, prices were the about the same when gold was $1900 an ounce as prices for the same coins were when gold was around $1200 an ounce, or lower.....

Roadrunner seems to be implying that bullion prices were not a large factor in the determination of price levels for generic gold in the past. IMO, a review of prices for PCGS graded MS-64 to 66, common date Saints during the late 1980s would provide evidence to support Roadrunner's points in this thread. My expertise, however, is in rare coins, not generics, I stand by my hypothesis that there is very little relationship between prices for truly rare coins and bullion levels. >>

For one, gold going up from $252 in 2001 to $730 in April 2006 (almost tripling) is much more than "did not rise all that much." The tripling in gold prices was reflected in many rare coin prices which generally doubled and tripled for quality, lower pop items. Some MS65/66 seated halves/dollars I bought at auction in 2002 doubled, tripled, and even quadrupled by 2007-2008. Gold had a LOT to do with that. MS64/65/66 generic gold peaked out in April 2006 with gold at $730. Those levels have not been approached again with the exception of $20's which stayed elevated due to their higher priced %bullion content. Gem silver and copper type and gem generic gold peaked out years before gold actually did in 2011. Generic gold did see a bounce with gold from 2009-2011, but except for the $20's, didn't approach the 2006 levels. Bullion prices are a a LARGE factor in generic gold coin pricing. It's just that generic gold sniffed out very early (May 2006) the peaks coming in both the rare coin market (Aug 2008) and bullion gold (August 2011). Truly rare coin prices are determined by the number of collectors/speculators chasing them vs. the available supply. One or two former key players missing can lead to major price drops. Generic $1's to $10's peaked at $730/oz gold. While they were rising as gold approached $1900, they were far short of previous highs.

$10 Indians in MS62-65 have been washed out to the same low levels multiple times in the past few years. The fact that they are at higher levels today then when gold was at $1200-$1300 is a positive sign....though no guarantees it follows through to a longer term price rise. In the past year MS63 $10 Indians dropped to around $875 each...a level not seen since the 2004-2007 era when gold was $400-$700.

I would not put too much faith in PCGS price guide for generic gold. MS64 $10 Indians can be bought for mid-$1400's. They've been at $100 either side of that level for the past year.

Analyst · August 14, 2015 6:35AM

Roadrunner: <<For one, gold going up from $252 in 2001 to $730 in April 2006 (almost tripling) is much more than "did not rise all that much." ... >>

Come on Roadrunner, you know that you are taking my remark out of context. Let us please reconsider the whole paragraph that was cited:

Analyst earlier in this thread: <There is very little connection between bullion and prices for true rarities. Moreover, there was a boom in coin collecting from 1998 to 2007, while bullion prices did not rise all that much, and were nowhere near current bullion levels. Many rare coin prices, in contrast, are a little lower now than peak levels that were reached during the 2006 to mid-2008 period. For many rarities, prices were the about the same when gold was nearly $1900 an ounce as prices for the same coins were when gold was around $1200 an ounce, or lower.>

Roadrunner: <<The tripling in gold prices was reflected in many rare coin prices which generally doubled and tripled for quality, lower pop items. ... Some MS65/66 seated halves/dollars I bought at auction in 2002 doubled, tripled, and even quadrupled by 2007-2008. Gold had a LOT to do with that.>>

No, there is not substantial evidence to support this point.

According to Kitco.com, gold started 2006 at $530 and finished 2006 at $632 per ounce. In 2011, gold started at $1388.50 and finished at $1531, though was at approximately $1895 from Sept. 5 to 8 on the London exchange.

So, the peak in 2006 was $725 (according to Kitco) and the peak in 2011 was $1895! Did the "quality, lower pop items," which Roadrunner is talking about, increase proportionately? Did their respective values increase at all from 2006 to 2011? For some "quality, lower pop" Saints, prices never again reached levels realized at the auction of the Morse Collection in Nov. 2005!

As Roadrunner himself has pointed out in other threads, and maybe suggested here, prices for some Liberty Seated coins peaked during the 2005 to 2007 period. Gold had very little to do with this reality. If gold was a significant factor in the prices of gem Liberty Seated halves, why would prices for gem Liberty Seated halves go down while gold was rising in 2009? Prices for gem Liberty Seated halves were not changing much in 2010 and 2011 while gold was rising tremendously from Aug. 2010 to early Sept. 2011.

Suppose, hypothetically, that the price of gold bullion had not gone up from 1998 to 2006. Suppose that it had stayed around $400 the whole time, hypothetically, because increased demand in the U.S. was offset by sales of gold by Russian and Chinese firms for whatever reasons. IMO, prices for rare U.S. coins would still have gone up dramatically from 1998 to early 2008, especially from 2003 to 2007, because of a boom in coin collecting. Gold bullion prices were a factor, though a minor one.

Would Roadrunner suggest that the price of an "1825/4/1" half eagle is affected by bullion levels?

Rare & Exciting “1825/4/1” Half Eagle in ANA Auction

Is the plunge in gold prices having any effect on the pricing of numismatic coins?

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