Do you agree with Legend's market report that the Pogue auction results indicate a new uptrend in th

TopographicOceans · May 26, 2015 2:54AM

We strongly believe prices at this point MUST go up. It is more then proven now there is a healthy market. They ONLY disruption is lack of supply and dreck coins selling too low in an auction.

I hope she's correct.

Report

bronco2078 · May 26, 2015 3:00AM

Why do you want her to be correct? Are you done buying coins in this lifetime?

TopographicOceans · May 26, 2015 3:15AM

<< Why do you want her to be correct? Are you done buying coins in this lifetime? >>

Personally I would like to sell some duplicates I've accumulated. My type set is pretty much entering the arena of needing only 18th century coins and I'm not sure how far I want to go down that path.

BillJones · May 26, 2015 3:16AM

Yes, I really don't want her to be correct, and least not until I get ready to sell my collection.

But seriously, do you really want to be priced out of the coin market for everything except modern and low grade problem stuff?

The market for the Pogue collection and most of the coins that Legend sells is way beyond the financial means of most collectors. I could collect coins in the grade levels that Legend markets, but I would have far fewer coins, and would have to give up on most anything that was really scarce or rare. Maybe that market does have a ways to go price-wise, but if it goes well beyond the limits of most collectors and is composed mostly of speculators and investors, it is rising for a fall, maybe a big fall.

I've seen this pattern before. When one aspect of the market leaves many collectors behind, there will be a correction. It happened 35 years ago and to a lesser extent 25 years ago. Collectors are the ultimate consumers. The others are often short timers who are in and out of the market. They are not the backbone of the coin market; collectors are.

BillJones · May 26, 2015 3:21AM

<< 

<< Why do you want her to be correct? Are you done buying coins in this lifetime? >>

Personally I would like to sell some duplicates I've accumulated. My type set is pretty much entering the arena of needing only 18th century coins and I'm not sure how far I want to go down that path. >>

Believe me. You will not benefit in the sale of your duplicates if the kind of material in the Pogue Collection and the Legend inventory is the only area of the market that goes up. I have a complete type from the half cent to the Pan-Pac $50 gold as defined by the NGC type coin registries. My coins are "collector grades" from one coin in Fine-15 through a number of VFs, EFs and AUs and finally ending with some MS or PR-64 coins. I only have a few pieces, beyond that modern stuff that grades MS or PR-65 or better. I would not get much benefit from a huge increase in the "Pogue type of material."

bronco2078 · May 26, 2015 3:36AM

I think increasing prices only benefit dealers as a collector I'd rather see them crater.

I want the dealers to be so upset over falling prices to the point where they pull me into the store as I'm walking by .

BillJones · May 26, 2015 3:40AM

<< I want the dealers to be so upset over falling prices to the point where they pull me into the store as I'm walking by . >>

I don't think I would want to go far. I think the store would havd closed before they will be out in the street pulling you in.

messydesk · May 26, 2015 3:45AM

I think the Pogue auction results indicate a strong demand for items in the Pogue collection at and below the levels at which they sold. It's folly to try and extrapolate the sale of one of the most amazing collections ever put together into an overall market generalization.

MsMorrisine · May 26, 2015 3:48AM

the opinion expressed is for their segment of the market and not the whole market

BAJJERFAN · May 26, 2015 3:54AM

<< the opinion expressed is for their segment of the market and not the whole market >>

Yep, it's a polyfurcated market and most of us don't walk in the rarefied air of that furcate.

TopographicOceans · May 26, 2015 4:05AM

<< 

Believe me. You will not benefit in the sale of your duplicates if the kind of material in the Pogue Collection and the Legend inventory is the only area of the market that goes up. I have a complete type from the half cent to the Pan-Pac $50 gold as defined by the NGC type coin registries. My coins are "collector grades" from one coin in Fine-15 through a number of VFs, EFs and AUs and finally ending with some MS or PR-64 coins. I only have a few pieces, beyond that modern stuff that grades MS or PR-65 or better. I would not get much benefit from a huge increase in the "Pogue type of material." >>

I looked at your set (ranked #3) and it is very impressive. I think I see a lot more MS coins than circulated ones.

My coins are far from Pogue caliber, and perhaps closer to what Laura would call dreck coins. With my type set I've taken the approach of buying the best examples I could afford since I only need one.

Just as an example, I see you have a MS64 for the 50c SEATED LIBERTY, WITH DRAPERY 1839-66.
Currently I have a 1859 PR62CAM and a PR63. I like them both, but only need one. Actually I wouldn't mind selling them both and buying an AU58 for this type.
In fact I'd like to do a type set with nothing higher than AU58, since they would be nice examples, but also lightly circulated which is nice from a history standpoint.

VanHalen · May 26, 2015 5:39AM

<< the opinion expressed is for their segment of the market and not the whole market >>

x2 from this view.

BillJones · May 26, 2015 5:52AM

<< I looked at your set (ranked #3) and it is very impressive. I think I see a lot more MS coins than circulated ones. >>

Yes, but they are not "Pogue quality." The only pieces that I have which come close to comparing with the Pogue coins are pieces that are simply not available in the higher grades.

bronco2078 · May 26, 2015 5:59AM

<< 

<< 

Believe me. You will not benefit in the sale of your duplicates if the kind of material in the Pogue Collection and the Legend inventory is the only area of the market that goes up. I have a complete type from the half cent to the Pan-Pac $50 gold as defined by the NGC type coin registries. My coins are "collector grades" from one coin in Fine-15 through a number of VFs, EFs and AUs and finally ending with some MS or PR-64 coins. I only have a few pieces, beyond that modern stuff that grades MS or PR-65 or better. I would not get much benefit from a huge increase in the "Pogue type of material." >>

I looked at your set (ranked #3) and it is very impressive. I think I see a lot more MS coins than circulated ones.

My coins are far from Pogue caliber, and perhaps closer to what Laura would call dreck coins. With my type set I've taken the approach of buying the best examples I could afford since I only need one.

Just as an example, I see you have a MS64 for the 50c SEATED LIBERTY, WITH DRAPERY 1839-66.
Currently I have a 1859 PR62CAM and a PR63. I like them both, but only need one. Actually I wouldn't mind selling them both and buying an AU58 for this type.
In fact I'd like to do a type set with nothing higher than AU58, since they would be nice examples, but also lightly circulated which is nice from a history standpoint. >>

Why should the rest of us suffer financially for your lack of focus grasshopper?

MrEureka · May 26, 2015 6:00AM

I wouldn't read too much into the Pogue results. It was, after all, only 128 coins.

However, to whatever extent the market had been spooked by the announcement of the sale, I'd say that that concern has now largely passed. Even though we're at this point only 10% of the way through the collection.

291fifth · May 26, 2015 6:35AM

It may indicate an uptrend in the market that legend caters to ... but ... just try selling some ordinary material and see what happens.

DavidLawrence · May 26, 2015 6:39AM

I think Andy is right. The Pogue results were never likely to be an indication of the current market as they are so famous and likely to bring massive attention when they sell. Personally, I thought the Gardner sale a week before was a bigger indication that the market has begun to bounce back. While there were some bargains in the Gardner sale, most of the dealers that attended (myself included) felt the results were stronger than anticipated. I was surprised by the strength of collector coins like Barber and Seated in that sale.

As to whether a down market is good for collectors and dealers, I would make a different argument altogether. What we (dealers) want -- at least myself -- is market stability. I carry a huge inventory, so it's very challenging to navigate as market prices fall. As prices increase, we benefit to some degree, but often end up have to pay ahead of market prices in a rising market to buy new inventory, so it's equally treacherous.

Furthermore, on a macro level, falling prices are perceived negatively by most existing and potential buyers. That's human nature. People want to buy when prices are rising and sit on the sidelines during negative trends. As a collector, or dealer, I think the market is healthiest when prices are stable to inflation-sized gains which keeps everyone happy.

LindeDad · May 26, 2015 7:08AM

It's like rolling out a barrel of apples, buy the time we see the bottom we might be finding vinegar.

Sure was some juicy stuff on top though.

hchcoin · May 26, 2015 7:19AM

Some great perspective in this thread

FullStrike · May 26, 2015 7:21AM

Ah yes, the old toss the hott potatoes game.

Now the potatoes are going nuclear. Better toss that baby before it melts everything you have.

trust me-you absolutely can't lose when you buy the finest

BryceM · May 26, 2015 7:31AM

As an aside, Laura mentions that the current Legend auction is their largest yet. I noticed that too when looking through the lots. I hope their format and offerings don't change too much. It has always been something of a boutique auction that contrasted nicely with the bloated auctions that accompany the larger shows.

As for Pogue, I know nothing. Pinto guys don't usually watch the Ferrari races.

jdimmick · May 26, 2015 7:44AM

I don't think the Pogue sale was any indication of general market except for the upper end and on once in a lifetime opportunity pieces. (they were strong no doubt)

What will be interesting to see is that the few coins in pogue that were not finest known or one of a kind that sold for stronger $ in that sale then they would have in any other sale, come back on the market in the short term and get resold to another buyer at the same levels.

I agree with DLRC, I thought gardner sale did better overall than I thought it might this late in the game.

I will add , I just consigned (2) lower to mid 5 figure coins to a well know national dealer and, they were both sold fairly quickly 1 in 2-3 days, the other about week 1/2. That shows some strength IMO.

jim

I agree run of the mill market is not great by far though.

Unknown · May 26, 2015 7:55AM

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Cougar1978 · May 26, 2015 8:27AM

No, but I do hope she is right.

I deal in cold hard facts - bullion prices, what things I started at 9.95 bring on ebay (one coin I held a year realized 50% of what I paid for it), the PCGS 3000 etc, the direction of bids in the CDN. The real coin market represents all coins, not just some specialized segment or boutique.

None of this indicates the market is going up. As a matter of fact I believe the opposite may be true. Plus we are entering the summer doldrums.

One should excecise caution in rare coin investment. The real question is what can you liquidate the coin you bought for if you had to sell tomorrow, not that its acquisition is the "opportunity of a lifetime."

Justacommeman · May 26, 2015 8:58AM

If a coin if all there and has great eye appeal then it has a fighting chance. If not, it better be an über rarity................A raising tide will not raise all boats

Mark

CalGold · May 26, 2015 9:51AM

Laura also reported that the silver coins had “mixed results” and that the 1794 half and 1804 quarter “fell through the cracks”. Fell through the cracks at one of the most highly anticipated sales in years?

The results seem to show that there is more money chasing finest quality for type than rarities needed by specialists for sets. Nothing new I suppose. 1796 half dime MS67+ ($411K) or 1800 half dime MS68 (>$380K) vs the classic rarity 1802 half dime ($305K) or 1823/2 quarter (<$250K).

The 1845-O dime ex-Eliasberg in the Gardner sale lost significant value after a 10 year hold (purchased for $161K in 2005). Regardless of whether you agree with the MS69 grade on the label it still eclipses the only other PCGS MS coin by several points. But if you mentally down grade it by a point or a point and a half there are high grade alternatives for type.

On the other hand, even though these coins have nothing to do with the vast majority of collectors, sometimes glamor sales generate or revive interest in coins in general and that could bring out buyers at other levels.

CG

derryb · May 26, 2015 9:56AM

I believe the recent record sales in the art market indicates that collectibles are being viewed as a safehaven - a place to safely park cash. This could result in a sizable uptrend in the coin market, specifically sellers of quality investments.

The Pogue results indicate that coin investments will likely follow art investments.

CalGold · May 26, 2015 10:00AM

Nah. Hedge fund managers can't hang half dimes on the walls of their Park Avenue condos or mansions in Connecticut.

dpoole · May 26, 2015 10:10AM

The consensus seems to be that the Pogue sale (and others like it recently) have reflected a tier of monied people that are divorced from the rank and file coin collectors.

In recent years (for many reason), wealth has accumulated most rapidly at the top, and this wealth has been seeking out hard assets to secure its preservation. The gem specimens of all collectibles appear to be pulling away like this.

The middle and lower tiers of collectibles appear to be uninfluenced by this particular phenomenon, and remain in the hands of the traditional collectors.

CoinJunkie · May 26, 2015 10:11AM

<< Nah. Hedge fund managers can't hang half dimes on the walls of their Park Avenue condos or mansions in Connecticut. >>

Not to mention that there's no glamor at a coin auction. How many society wives attended Pogue?

TwoSides2aCoin · May 26, 2015 10:19AM

She's ________ brilliant. And anyone who's watched, over the course of the past fifteen or forty years knows exactly what a store of wealth is.

thisnamztaken · May 26, 2015 10:32AM

<< It's folly to try and extrapolate the sale of one of the most amazing collections ever put together into an overall market generalization. >>

Baley · May 26, 2015 10:53AM

<< 

<< the opinion expressed is for their segment of the market and not the whole market >>

Yep, it's a polyfurcated market and most of us don't walk in the rarefied air of that furcate. >>

brilliant, and so true

roadrunner · May 26, 2015 11:15AM

Do you agree with Legend's market report that the Pogue auction results indicate a new uptrend in the coin market?

No.

EagleEye · May 26, 2015 11:32AM

The shortest Roadrunner reply ever

I would have liked to hear that more collectors participated directly.

Broadstruck · May 26, 2015 12:15PM

I'm not sure if I agree or disagree after reading it. That being said with the exception of a few dealers I trust not to sugar coat I take everything I read in dealer written market or show reports with a grain of salt as they are mostly just marketing hype.

DRUNNER · May 26, 2015 1:12PM

dpoole and others are mentioning the point.

Remember the post from a few days ago -- two phone bidders kicking up the coins (half dimes??) and all others just watching from the sidelines?

Bravo for the upper level accumulators and investors -- I believe this sale, while epic and memorable, has little to do with the rank and file. I worry about them . . . .us . . . . me.

Drunner

pennyannie · May 26, 2015 1:40PM

Pogue sells the first group of 128 coins, hardly enough to material to state where the market is going. the cream of the cream Killer coins, cool cars, cool guns, prime real estate, and many others items will do well in just about any economy to some degree.

I will disagree with her on the half dollar she stole for 750k that 3 others valued at over 1 million and she was willing to go 1,250 million on. It did not fall thru the cracks everyone that collects high dollar widgets knew what was in the sale. If it was a easy sale to others at 1,25 million more would have been driving the price up until flipping it was not a good deal. I would not leave 500,000 on the table for someone to grab.

I believe the coins sold for what they were worth, in the new age of media, social networks and so on it is hard to slip stuff by un noticed.

braddick · May 26, 2015 2:11PM

My simple rule of thumb: "if I don't know..." I then lean toward believing someone who does and gets it right more times than not.

It's kind of like a roulette wheel in Vegas. if all the numbers are RED other than two or three that remain BLACK, I'd bet on red.
Laura is that roulette wheel of numismatics.

Coinosaurus · May 26, 2015 2:33PM

<< Laura is that roulette wheel of numismatics. >>

The best graders agree only 75% of the time.

The best dealers blowout losing inventory to auctions.

No one is perfect in this business.

But some dealers are a lot closer than others.

Boosibri · May 26, 2015 4:52PM

I agree with John Feigenbaum and MrE

TopographicOceans · May 26, 2015 5:53PM

<< I think Andy is right.
As to whether a down market is good for collectors and dealers, I would make a different argument altogether. What we (dealers) want -- at least myself -- is market stability. I carry a huge inventory, so it's very challenging to navigate as market prices fall. As prices increase, we benefit to some degree, but often end up have to pay ahead of market prices in a rising market to buy new inventory, so it's equally treacherous.

Furthermore, on a macro level, falling prices are perceived negatively by most existing and potential buyers. That's human nature. People want to buy when prices are rising and sit on the sidelines during negative trends. As a collector, or dealer, I think the market is healthiest when prices are stable to inflation-sized gains which keeps everyone happy. >>

Andy usually is right.

You'll have to replace some of your inventory since I accepted your counteroffer on the 1839 SLQ. I guess I'm not done buying

Greeniejr · May 26, 2015 11:11PM

IMO the Pogue sale was in no way a reflection of the market as a whole. First off, as many people have said, it was only 128 coins. Many of them are true treasures that are important numismatic relics but the quantity of coins was quite low. Second, the reason why why Stacks/Bowers partnered with Sotheby's was to try and get big money collectors from outside of normal numismatic circles. While they may drop hundreds of thousands of dollars on a great rarity, I am not sure that they will be drawn into the world of numismatics to buy coins that are in the 5 figure range and below. Lastly, there are two areas of the market that are completely insulated from the market as a whole. The market for super rarities because if you have the money to drop a million dollars on a coin, you probably have enough money that a downturn in the markets or a poor economy will change your collecting habits that much. The other area of the market that is not effected is the low end of the market, coins that are under $20. Even people who are coin collectors but unemployed or struggling will drop a few dollars here and there to buy a coin because it is their hobby and it brings them joy, inexpensively. That being said, I am sure this will take a little money out of business but not a noticeable amount.

tradedollarnut · May 26, 2015 11:18PM

<< Pogue sells the first group of 128 coins, hardly enough to material to state where the market is going. the cream of the cream Killer coins, cool cars, cool guns, prime real estate, and many others items will do well in just about any economy to some degree.

I will disagree with her on the half dollar she stole for 750k that 3 others valued at over 1 million and she was willing to go 1,250 million on. It did not fall thru the cracks everyone that collects high dollar widgets knew what was in the sale. If it was a easy sale to others at 1,25 million more would have been driving the price up until flipping it was not a good deal. I would not leave 500,000 on the table for someone to grab.

I believe the coins sold for what they were worth, in the new age of media, social networks and so on it is hard to slip stuff by un noticed. >>

If true, then why would Legend have had to refuse a $150k profit offer on the coin?

Coins do indeed fall through the cracks at auction. I bought a Libertas out of auction one time for $18k. I flipped it as a favor to a fellow collector because he either forgot to bid or his bid wasn't executed. It later sold for six figures when his collection was auctioned.

Broadstruck · May 27, 2015 12:01AM

<< 

<< Pogue sells the first group of 128 coins, hardly enough to material to state where the market is going. the cream of the cream Killer coins, cool cars, cool guns, prime real estate, and many others items will do well in just about any economy to some degree.

I will disagree with her on the half dollar she stole for 750k that 3 others valued at over 1 million and she was willing to go 1,250 million on. It did not fall thru the cracks everyone that collects high dollar widgets knew what was in the sale. If it was a easy sale to others at 1,25 million more would have been driving the price up until flipping it was not a good deal. I would not leave 500,000 on the table for someone to grab.

I believe the coins sold for what they were worth, in the new age of media, social networks and so on it is hard to slip stuff by un noticed. >>

If true, then why would Legend have had to refuse a $150k profit offer on the coin?

Coins do indeed fall through the cracks at auction. I bought a Libertas out of auction one time for $18k. I flipped it as a favor to a fellow collector because he either forgot to bid or his bid wasn't executed. It later sold for six figures when his collection was auctioned. >>

Sometimes it's far more affordable to acquire a coin in auction of interest by approaching the winning dealer and paying their mark-up then bidding against them before the hammer drops. Having done the following myself quite a few times it's saved me upwards of 2/3 my max by not bidding at all. Actually bidding sometimes could cost you dearly as others that where done could regain the fever and also rejoin in bidding.

roadrunner · May 27, 2015 12:08AM

<< ....I will disagree with her on the half dollar she stole for 750k that 3 others valued at over 1 million and she was willing to go 1,250 million on. It did not fall thru the cracks everyone that collects high dollar widgets knew what was in the sale. If it was a easy sale to others at 1,25 million more would have been driving the price up until flipping it was not a good deal. I would not leave 500,000 on the table for someone to grab.

I believe the coins sold for what they were worth, in the new age of media, social networks and so on it is hard to slip stuff by un noticed. >>

I would agree. And if they were offered +$150K, they should have taken it. I just don't see top flight coins in the world's greatest bust silver collection selling for 40% discounts....unless it's March 2009 all over again. We saw collectors and dealers fight tooth and nail for the best lots out of Newman and Gardner. So all of them fell asleep on the world's best 1794 half?

Sometimes it's far more affordable to acquire a coin in auction of interest by approaching the winning dealer and paying their mark-up then bidding against them before the hammer drops. Having done the following myself quite a few times it's saved me upwards of 2/3 my max by not bidding at all. Actually bidding sometimes could cost you dearly as others that where done could regain the fever and also rejoin in bidding.

I can see that if it's just 1 on 1 between you and another....with everyone else in the dust. But, in this case there were supposedly 3 other bidders/players that didn't participate up to FMV. Though, the Pittman statue of Liberty play is sometimes a good option.

tradedollarnut · May 27, 2015 12:23AM

<< 

I would agree. And if they were offered +$150K, they should have taken it. I just don't see top flight coins in the world's greatest bust silver collection selling for 40% discounts....unless it's March 2009 all over again.

>>

As far as taking the profit, the coin was bought on behalf of a collector.

I see Laura has now added that the 1794 is a pop 2/0. That certainly changes the price equation in my mind. Unless it's clearly the finer of the two, $1M would seem a likely ceiling.

7Jaguars · May 27, 2015 1:01AM

I guess I don't understand that bit: if it was bought for a collector in mind beforehand, why then did it go up for sale with the 500k markup.

I figure (based only on what has been presented) that they are holding out for more than the 150k - at least for now. I don't see any evidence whatsoever that there is an established market at a higher level and note unless potential buyers are off doing more important things, that they would have been either at the sale or at least represented.

Overall, I don't see, as others have said, that this was def. not a barometer for the market as a whole.

roadrunner · May 27, 2015 2:03AM

If this was a collector purchase then we need a 2nd bidder at a higher level to prove the $1M-$1.25M market theory. Just because "one" was willing to pay that does not make the market. One of the best coins I ever purchased at auction went into hiding from 1980-1986. I had been tracking it since 1975. When it finally came up for auction again (1986 summer ANA sales) I was not going to lose it. It was the finest known specimen by a mile. My max bid was $14,500. It ended up hammering for $9650....33% under my max. I was thrilled. Just because I was willing to pay another 33% doesn't mean that was the market. And no doubt if someone had wanted it from me it would have taken at least $14-15K to do it. Regardless, I valued the coin at $10K until the market said otherwise.

pennyannie · May 27, 2015 12:59PM

<< 

<< Pogue sells the first group of 128 coins, hardly enough to material to state where the market is going. the cream of the cream Killer coins, cool cars, cool guns, prime real estate, and many others items will do well in just about any economy to some degree.

I will disagree with her on the half dollar she stole for 750k that 3 others valued at over 1 million and she was willing to go 1,250 million on. It did not fall thru the cracks everyone that collects high dollar widgets knew what was in the sale. If it was a easy sale to others at 1,25 million more would have been driving the price up until flipping it was not a good deal. I would not leave 500,000 on the table for someone to grab.

I believe the coins sold for what they were worth, in the new age of media, social networks and so on it is hard to slip stuff by un noticed. >>

If true, then why would Legend have had to refuse a $150k profit offer on the coin?

Coins do indeed fall through the cracks at auction. I bought a Libertas out of auction one time for $18k. I flipped it as a favor to a fellow collector because he either forgot to bid or his bid wasn't executed. It later sold for six figures when his collection was auctioned.[/

I will go with your example of falling thru the cracks where some money can be made but I was going off a 750k spread not a 150k. I do believe that someone offered a 150k profit on the coin. I can see that. If I had bought the coin for myself I would have said sold and had an extra 150k for the next sale to look for what falls thru the cracks.

My reply was based off of everyone knew this sale was coming and what was in it. Not everyone is aware of what is going to be sold in the Kalamzoo rare coin auction next week that a 60 year collector is selling his collection. I go to a lot of auction (not coin) and look for what I FEEL falls thru the cracks that I know I can flip. While some do not want to mess with less than a 20k profit I can live with 5k or 10k if that is where the action is.

All it takes is a well funded NEW collector to get bit by the collecting bug to drive the prices up

wondercoin · May 27, 2015 1:13PM

I once bought a coin for a collector in a major auction for about $8,000 when one of the stronger bidders for coins in that particular series missed a flight into the auction venue and couldn't get to the auction house in time to place a bid. Two days later, my customer turned down the possibility to sell the coin at $25,000 (net to him) and a few years later actually sold it for about $45,000 if memory serves me right. These things do happen.

Wondercoin

Do you agree with Legend's market report that the Pogue auction results indicate a new uptrend in th

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