The Bull Market of 2014!
MrEureka
Posts: 24,668 ✭✭✭✭✭
According to CNBC, coins were up 10% in 2014. Great news!
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
0
Comments
-Paul
Coin Rarities Online
Don't mind if I get started without you!
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>LOL. Stamps up 190% over 10 years? >>
I just bought a US stamp collection yesterday.........Yippeee!!!
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
Coins up 90% in 5 yrs (2009-2014)? A near doubling? Certainly, not most coins. The average good coin in 2009 took a 25-40% haircut from the 2007-2008 peaks. And most of them have not recovered.
Coins up 221% in 10 yrs (2004-2014)? That's a triple+! I can't think of any major sector of the coin market that is up 3.2X since 2004, unless you're talking Naftzger large cents or Pogue-Newman type coins. Yeah, MS63 Saints are probably up 3X in that period. And 90% silver is probably up close to 3X. But gem, gold, silver types generally aren't. Gem Morgans aren't. What is up 3X are the best of the best....like the MS67 1893-s Vermeulle Morgan $. I was fairly selective in my choices of coins that I bought from 2002. And by the market peak in 2008 there were only a couple I could claim a 2.5X on (1855 half PCGS MS66 pop for one). Most of them fell in the 1.5X to 2.0X range. I can't think of a single coin I currently own that is worth more than it was in 2007/2008.
Exotic race cars like Ferrari's have certainly skied the past 5 years. They have exceeded their 2007 highs...some by multiples. I also watch the 1960-1972 US domestic muscle car market and that has yet to get anywhere near close to the 2007 highs for 98% of the market. Hemi E-bodies were near the top of the food chain in 2007 and they are going for about half or less of those values. I'd say most real nice $100K to $200K car muscle cars in 2007 are now available for $60K to $125K. Very nice, unrestored original cars have held up well, so have the winged Nascar cars like 1970 Superbirds and 1969 Daytonas. There's definitely still big money buyers putting the top dollar cars away. Just like the stock market from 2008-2011, collector car prices crashed in that period. They've since recovered a fair amount of those losses. A very nice 1970 Challenger R/T 440+6 car I once owned went from $20K to $95K (1996-2007). It sold for $60K-$65K in 2014 and is still in nearly the same condition. That is very representative of what most of the nicer and more desirable cars have been doing. I'd love to know what "general car" market is still up 5.7X since 2004. I couldn't think of a single example outside of exotic race cars or 1-off factory cars. KFLLI could be as relevant as the Soloman Brothers gem gold type coin surveys of 30 years ago when shifting grading standards were not considered.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
<< <i>I say BS to that guy's tables....at least in coins....and cars.
Coins up 90% in 5 yrs (2009-2014)? A near doubling? Certainly, not most coins. >>
I agree. This seems very spurious. Can anyone name ANY series that is up 90% in the past 5 years?
<< <i>
<< <i>I say BS to that guy's tables....at least in coins....and cars.
Coins up 90% in 5 yrs (2009-2014)? A near doubling? Certainly, not most coins. >>
I agree. This seems very spurious. Can anyone name ANY series that is up 90% in the past 5 years? >>
Not I said the cat........ whadda bout them gold Kennedys?...........nevermind
<< <i>
<< <i>I say BS to that guy's tables....at least in coins....and cars.
Coins up 90% in 5 yrs (2009-2014)? A near doubling? Certainly, not most coins. >>
I agree. This seems very spurious. Can anyone name ANY series that is up 90% in the past 5 years? >>
There are intense collector issues like better date seated or exitoc gold that are clearly up 90% or more. Try and buy a (multiple levels of interest) coin like a 39o half in a great grade or holder for what it went for in 2008. Yes common or ehhhh stuff isn't on the thrill ride but I think the artical was talking about the best of the best anyway.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I say BS to that guy's tables....at least in coins....and cars.
Coins up 90% in 5 yrs (2009-2014)? A near doubling? Certainly, not most coins. >>
I agree. This seems very spurious. Can anyone name ANY series that is up 90% in the past 5 years? >>
There are intense collector issues like better date seated or exitoc gold that are clearly up 90% or more. Try and buy a (multiple levels of interest) coin like a 39o half in a great grade or holder for what it went for in 2008. Yes common or ehhhh stuff isn't on the thrill ride but I think the artical was talking about the best of the best anyway. >>
No doubt there are dates here and there that are up big time, but name me a SERIES.
Central American Republic 8 Reales in mint state grades.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I say BS to that guy's tables....at least in coins....and cars.
Coins up 90% in 5 yrs (2009-2014)? A near doubling? Certainly, not most coins. >>
I agree. This seems very spurious. Can anyone name ANY series that is up 90% in the past 5 years? >>
There are intense collector issues like better date seated or exitoc gold that are clearly up 90% or more. Try and buy a (multiple levels of interest) coin like a 39o half in a great grade or holder for what it went for in 2008. Yes common or ehhhh stuff isn't on the thrill ride but I think the artical was talking about the best of the best anyway. >>
No doubt there are dates here and there that are up big time, but name me a SERIES. >>
Most blue chip dark side like 8R, he'll most of my series (TD) has almost doubled in the past 6 years
WS
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I say BS to that guy's tables....at least in coins....and cars.
Coins up 90% in 5 yrs (2009-2014)? A near doubling? Certainly, not most coins. >>
I agree. This seems very spurious. Can anyone name ANY series that is up 90% in the past 5 years? >>
There are intense collector issues like better date seated or exitoc gold that are clearly up 90% or more. Try and buy a (multiple levels of interest) coin like a 39o half in a great grade or holder for what it went for in 2008. Yes common or ehhhh stuff isn't on the thrill ride but I think the artical was talking about the best of the best anyway. >>
No doubt there are dates here and there that are up big time, but name me a SERIES. >>
Seated Halves, maybe Seated Dollars too?
<< <i>There are intense collector issues like better date seated or exitoc gold that are clearly up 90% or more. Try and buy a (multiple levels of interest) coin like a 39o half in a great grade or holder for what it went for in 2008. Yes common or ehhhh stuff isn't on the thrill ride but I think the artical was talking about the best of the best anyway. >>
Issues vs. Series. A big difference. I didn't see anywhere in that article that they were talking about the best of the best in coins, art, antiques, cars, etc. If we're strictly talking about the top one tenth of 1% of the collectibles market then it doesn't apply to anyone but those with a net worth of >$10MILL, and preferably >$100 MILL.
I try to watch the seated series. I can't readily think of a single issue in circ, unc or proof that would be up 90% in the past 5 years. And even if I could, a lot of those issues took a price tumble from 2008-2011, some of them cut nearly in half. So a doubling from there, just gets you back to 2008. A doubling in the past 3-4 years but flat over the past 6 years? Frame of reference makes a big difference.
The car market is also highly concentrated to a tiny slice of cars at the top—mainly Ferraris, Porsches and Mercedes. Ferraris from the 1960s are driving much of the price growth for the market and have almost become their own market.
The car market is not concentrated at all. Sure, the most expensive cars are a tiny group. But the market covers a hundred years with >90% of all classic car transactions occurring in the <$50K price range. Ferrari's can no more drive the entire car market's price growth than 1804 silver dollars can. A few million dollar items pale in a broader market that covers $BILLIONs (coins) or $Tens of BILLIONs of dollars (collector cars).
From the March 2014 Issue of Car and Driver
A demographic shift looms: Some 76 million baby boomers will soon reach retirement age, crushing the health-care system and the social safety net with their massive numbers. But we have a greater concern: Who’s going to buy all their cars?
“I think that boomers are taking a more practical approach to baggage. We want to lighten our loads sooner,” says Charlie Kuhn, a 52-year-old collector from the Chicago area. “Guys not much older than me are selling because their kids aren’t interested. I’m already thinking about downsizing.”
The best estimates we have at the Hagerty Group, which sells classic-car insurance, peg the number of collector cars in the U.S. at roughly 5 million, of which 58 percent are owned by baby boomers, or those born from 1946 through 1964. Our data says that the median age of collector-car owners is 56 years. The oldest boomers are approaching 70, and their interest in the hobby is starting to wane. We won’t see a generation of similar size until the so-called millennials hit their peak earning years in a few decades. It’s questionable whether they will care about the cars of their grandfathers and great-grandfathers—or any cars, for that matter.
PCGS 3000 index +6%
Proof gold +45%
Mint State type +22%
Proof type +7.5%
Generic gold -17%
MS silver dollars -2%
Classic commems -20%
20th century -20%
Key dates and rarities +36% (over the past 5 years these are +4%)
4 of 8 sub-areas are negative. The average of those 8 is 6-7%. Fairly close to the PCGS 3000 index.
45 year Proof type chart - not for the faint of heart
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I say BS to that guy's tables....at least in coins....and cars.
Coins up 90% in 5 yrs (2009-2014)? A near doubling? Certainly, not most coins. >>
I agree. This seems very spurious. Can anyone name ANY series that is up 90% in the past 5 years? >>
There are intense collector issues like better date seated or exitoc gold that are clearly up 90% or more. Try and buy a (multiple levels of interest) coin like a 39o half in a great grade or holder for what it went for in 2008. Yes common or ehhhh stuff isn't on the thrill ride but I think the artical was talking about the best of the best anyway. >>
No doubt there are dates here and there that are up big time, but name me a SERIES. >>
Seated Halves, maybe Seated Dollars too? >>
Also Trade Dollars have surged along with territorial gold. Also Early Large Cents have almost gone into being uncollectible.
1. Denial
2. Anger
3. Bargaining
4. Depression
5. Acceptance
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
<< <i>Kübler-Ross model:
1. Denial
2. Anger
3. Bargaining
4. Depression
5. Acceptance >>
Five stages to becoming a coin-collecting schmo?
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
<< <i>According to CNBC, coins were up 10% in 2014. Great news! >>
To je govno.
MS 65 Barber and Seated Type - Halves, Quarters and Dimes are flat to negative since 2004.
Have you checked the price of the 1883 No Cent Liberty Nickel for which you paid $1,000 in 1998 recently?
Most MS 66 Liberty Nickels are valued at less now than they were 10 years ago, and let's just say the ones I saw 10 years ago were nicer than many I see today.
The price jumps in the last 10 years that I see are Unc. pre 1835 material, especially gem Capped Bust Halves, and the uber expensive coins which I could never afford in the first place.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
<< <i>When I think of what AU58 Bust Halves sold for in 2004 and what they sell for now, I would say 90% +/- up since then. >>
New Orleans gold is up about double too
Most sample slabs which were among the most affordable of all collectible numismatic series available have gone well above 90% from 2004 to 2014.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I say BS to that guy's tables....at least in coins....and cars.
Coins up 90% in 5 yrs (2009-2014)? A near doubling? Certainly, not most coins. >>
I agree. This seems very spurious. Can anyone name ANY series that is up 90% in the past 5 years? >>
There are intense collector issues like better date seated or exitoc gold that are clearly up 90% or more. Try and buy a (multiple levels of interest) coin like a 39o half in a great grade or holder for what it went for in 2008. Yes common or ehhhh stuff isn't on the thrill ride but I think the artical was talking about the best of the best anyway. >>
No doubt there are dates here and there that are up big time, but name me a SERIES. >>
Seated Halves, maybe Seated Dollars too? >>
Also Trade Dollars have surged along with territorial gold. Also Early Large Cents have almost gone into being uncollectible. >>
Despite my skepticism it appears there are a few series that have appreciated significantly. Thank you to those that brought this to my attention.
<< <i>Despite my skepticism it appears there are a few series that have appreciated significantly. Thank you to those that brought this to my attention. >>
Lets not cloud the original "far-fetched" premise of this article that said coins were up 221% in 10 yrs (3.2X increase) and 90% in 5 years. Those are the standards that the author says occurred. 90% in 10 years is not one of the choices. Sorry. I just used that time frame to show how little the market as a whole has advanced in a full decade (ie <50% in every major area that PCGS tracks). Gold and silver bullion are up close to 3X in 10 years (Dec 2004) but still fall short. A 3X gain in 10 years is exceptional (>10% compounded per year). I'd be disappointed if I bought selected gem type coins near a bottom (1996-1998)...sold them 10 years later (2006-2008) and couldn't gain 90%. Of course, I'd be very happy getting 221%. The hard part of that equation is being able to buy near a bottom, and having the foresight (or luck) to sell near an approaching peak. Very few actually do it.
I believe a study was done on Harold Bareford's gold coins held over many decades. And he made something like 10-14% compounded over that period. It certainly helps to buy coins back in the 1930's to 1950's when they were worth peanuts. Pittman's numbers were even better as I recall. So the real key is holding long term, buying nice stuff,....and having bought in the 1950's or earlier.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
<< <i>Saying the coin market (a a whole) is up 10% in 2014 is like saying stocks are up 10% in 2014--depends on what you bought, and if you didn't buy the entire market you didn't experience the 10% gain. Besides, coins are less quantifiable than stocks. As with stocks, some areas of the coin market are hot, some are cold, and some are inbetween. >>
The entire stock market (indexes) are generally up 10% in 2014 and you could have bought into that with any number of ETF's. But coins (as a broad index tracked by PCGS) are not up 10%. PCGS 3000 index is up 0.5% in 2014. Regardless of what major sector in coins you bought in 2014, you still didn't make 10%. Even the key dates and rarities index is down for 2014. So where did those 10% coin survey gains come from? Newman crosses and upgrades? Everyman AU58+ bust halves? I suspect that +10% came from buying the very best, original, high-demand (non-key date) coins among a number of series.
I offered a dealer 900 cash for a gun marked 950 last week and he said no and made no attempt to counter or justify his position. I will see it at the next 4 local shows.
I had the bulk of my rental property empty out in late 08 and few calls to rent. I had to drop the rent across the board and took a year to get back to 95 percent occupancy, I just recently got the rent back to the same as it was in 2008. I had one bad year out of the last 25 so not a huge deal. My other businesses are doing good but I see most are just tetering on the edge of disaster. Would not take much to trigger off another round. I feel rather lucky myself to have few worries now. I have always believed in cash is king and more so than ever now. Most of my interactions are with the hourly working man/woman and not a day seems to go by that I do not get a call or 2 for someone wanting to sell a car/boat/gun/coin/gold bullion/motorcycle/art from someone in a pinch. Most have tried a few other places to sell before calling me and the buy offers from dealers is a heck of a lot lower than most say they are on these forums.
All over the news all I hear is how great everything is. lol
NGC registry V-Nickel proof #6!!!!
working on proof shield nickels # 8 with a bullet!!!!
RIP "BEAR"
I retired my Elite Cameo Collection in April,2013 and sold it at Heritage. Exceptional coins brought excellent prices. Coins that were off for grade sold like dreck. Paid off the mortgage and have not regretted selling. Have seen some significant drops in pricing. Just saw a 1952 5c PR68 DCAM (3/0) go for $5k while mine hammered at $14k. I did not see the recent coin but the description was glowing.
I had fun collecting the series. Going to shows. Meeting the people in the industry. Getting to know dealers and other collectors. Can remember almost every transaction or find that lead to the examples in the collection. And still have two "spares" that I just couldn't bear to send to market. 1956 Franklin Type 1 PR68DCAM (3/0) and 1952 Washington PR67DCAM Superbird (1/0).
Still collect cheap toned Jeffersons for fun and not so cheap pre-war Jefferson proofs. Have never seen a proof Jefferson with milk spots lol.
BTW- sold my numbers matching 1969 Camaro Z-28 too. Guess perspectives change when you get near social security age.
Link to 1950 - 1964 Proof Registry Set
1938 - 1964 Proof Jeffersons w/ Varieties
But gold is still up around $1200 and that can't be all bad.
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection