<< <i>Ebola is a very serious problem and eradication of the latest outbreak should be a high priority. Given my scientific background I understand this issue much better than most, and there are significant differences between Ebola and the common flu. Ebola has the real potential to be much more of a concern than many appear to take it presently. >>
+1
Ebola can and will likely be a game changer in ways we have yet to even considered. Beyond killing large numbers of people, it has the ability to collapse economies, redistribute wealth and fundamentally change the way we live our lives.
The Black Death changed the world in ways we cannot even imagine now. If Ebola gets out of Africa in a substantial way there will be little that anyone can do to control it.
Such world events, while important, have no effect on my coin buying. Theoretically, they could, if either issue somehow presented a direct impact or threat to my well being. At this point, I simply study and understand the issues, while still participating in my hobbies/interests. Cheers, RickO
<< <i>Don't forget to vote for change next month. >>
Inappropriate post...yet somehow made less inappropriate by skillful use of the ? It's a coin forum. >>
Sorry. I thought this was the Ebola forum.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
“Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, The wretched refuse of your teeming shore. Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed, to me: I lift my lamp beside the golden door.”
Practice makes perfect & nobody is perfect. So, practice being nobody and be perfect !
<< <i>a highly aggressive influenza virus, like the Spanish Flu of about 100 years ago, is to me far, far scarier. Nobody really knows why it was such a bad flu that year. >>
And since the incidence of tuberculosis is much lower now, we shouldn't expect to see another seasonal flu epidemic with such a high mortality rate. >>
I've heard the TB theory before. I've also heard theories suggesting mustard gas was a predisposing factor, and that's why so many young men who fought in the war died.
Personally, I'm skeptical of this. TB has been around forever and influenza comes out every year. I am sure that underlying TB would be associated with a higher mortality, but that association is only that, an association.
Nowadays, due to modern medicine, people live longer lives. They live with chronic lung and heart disease. Many people take steroids and other immunosuppressive drugs for things like rheumatoid arthritis. People are living with organ transplants. People are surviving cancer and they are living full lives with HIV. While tuberculosis is no longer a major disease in the United States, there is a huge population of people with weakened immune systems. A hyper aggressive strain of influenza, especially if we do not have a vaccine for it, could be horribly devastating.
I think it's fair to say that the TB link is not (yet) widely accepted as the main factor, but I like the way it fits the epidemiology, like the unusual middle age group and the sex differential. I agree that mustard gas exposure can't be a big factor, as it doesn't explain the worldwide fatalities.
As to why TB might have been a factor in 1918 but not in earlier flu outbreaks, that is an excellent critique. I don't have the data on global historical TB incidence and flu pandemics which would be needed to investigate this. The concept of global mobility (especially soldiers) being higher in 1918 than in previous pandemics seems appealing to me, though.
It may affect my coin buying if we see more panic in the financial markets. At the moment, we at least have some stability and support at the lows of last week. The doldrums of Ebay sales are more likely to influence my buying and selling than anything... Ebola is just one factor in many accounting for this markets vigor- or lack thereof.
Though I don't speak for all, there are many of us working in health care that are very concerned. We were also concerned with AIDS early on- before it was better understood, SARS, H1N1 and more recently MERS. And in these cases, my worst fears weren't realized on this Continent at least. There is a great deal of nasty stuff out there! Ebola has potential and some epidemiogical projections are quite worrisome. The waffling on isolation protocols and levels by the CDC hasn't helped matters.
I could write all night here but I'll try and keep it short. IMO, Ebola appears to be a very significant problem for wherever it gains a foothold. There is a genuine air of near panic in the population at large. THIS is dangerous for reasons I'm not going to elaborate on here. There were mistakes made in Texas and I can only hope that hospitals worldwide have learned from these and made modifications to their protocols. I'd like to remind many that the patients that arrived in the US before the late Mr. Duncan- were treated successfully and without any transmittions to their health care providers.
It's my feeling thet not nearly enough is being done to restrict travel out of high risk areas! And, I'm flying across the county tomorrow following a family reunion on Cape Cod with a new head cold!!!!
Feeling very sorry for the folks seated nearby on my flights! I hope they don't collapse into panic when I sneeze and sniffle..... Maybe they'll just throw a tarp over me and give me some peace and quiet :-) I could use some rest.
If i'm not lynched and survive the trip, I've got some pretty educational follow-up's on grades posted for coins I've shared in the past! And, some pretty cool nteresting newly discovered tidbits of my family history and coin related updates on my Grandfather's use of silver dollars during the rough times after the depression.
Happy, humble, honored and proud recipient of the “You Suck” award 10/22/2014
<< <i>explain to me how any of this will affect my coin buying and back up your statements with real world proof >>
Stock market prices plunge, economies weaken further, deflation weakens buying power as people wait for loser prices, or are too strained to even spend, wages stagnate, health care systems could be severely strained.
These are just a few reasons... Need more? I'd rather not add fuel to the fire. And so far, first paitients treated here were transported and treated without further spread of this virus!
Edited for clarification.
Happy, humble, honored and proud recipient of the “You Suck” award 10/22/2014
Neither will change my coin buying beyond how they damage the economy.
I think ebola will go away mostly on it own. In every past epidemic of it a bunch of people got it then it went away. I find it strange that something that spreads fast from one infected person can vanish after hundreds have it and those were poor countries without great healthcare unless there is something inherent to it that makes the epidemics end. I think there's some fact they don't understand that explains why it vanishes so completely and it doesn't wipe out those areas, it just vanishes from the human population. Then it comes back again someplace from bushmeat or bats and has a new epidemic. There must be something they missed that explains how the past epidemics ended.
"The influenza pandemic of 1918-1919 killed more people than the Great War, known today as World War I (WWI), at somewhere between 20 and 40 million people. It has been cited as the most devastating epidemic in recorded world history."
<< <i>I read the Congo strain could incubate for up to 31 days. >>
IIRC, 97% show symptoms within 21 days. You don't have to quarantine 100% of individuals to stop an outbreak, you have to quarantine around 70%. At 70%, the R0 drops below one. So that 3% that doesn't show symptoms in the first 21 days are really negligible in the big picture unless you've got a relatively small outbreak. >>
At the macro level, that may be true. At the micro level, people may still want to be safer, for example 31 days.
After all, things that are negligible in the big picture have a way of hitting home if you or a loved one becomes affected.
My biggest concern is if it hits central and south America. Its one thing to attempt to trace 150 people/day coming from infected regions. Its much harder to trace people not coming from those regions but that have recently been to those areas (i.e., someone that goes from Liberia to another country and then to the US). However, if the outbreaks occur in central and south America, where medical treatment isn't as good as it is here but not as bad as some parts of Africa, look out. Our southern border security is severely lacking and I can tell you that if I lived in one of these areas and Ebola started to break out - you can bet your butt I'd be taking my family and trying to get away from it.
In addition, if you're someone who thinks you were exposed to Ebola - would you rather try to make it to the US where they're going to treat you or quarantine you if you say you've been exposed - or would you rather stay home and try to fight it out in some town in your home country?
To me, that is the biggest risk to the US from Ebola.
<< <i>the actual incubation period can be up to 42 days. 100% of all people will come down with it within that timeframe. 21 days is the 95% certainty. >>
That's good to know given that an increasing number of people exposed to ebola will be leaving quarantine after 21 days.
An Ebola outbreak in this country would be quickly contained. It is just not that contagious. It spreads well only in Third World where people are not educated on how to avoid transmission.
Now if it were to mutate into a form that can spread via airborne transmission (think Measles, the most contagious disease known)... it would be a stick you head up your arse and kiss it goodbye situation for most of humanity.
Also if it could be weaponized and used by terrorists, it would be dire.
But there is no indication that either of these scenario could or would ever play out. Filoviruses show no inclination to mutate in such a way.
Could easily b weaponized small scale .... terrorists intentionally get it, do suicide bomb and infect a lot of people. Could also use blood from same as weapon.
<< <i>Could easily b weaponized small scale .... terrorists intentionally get it, do suicide bomb and infect a lot of people. Could also use blood from same as weapon. >>
How does one go about nominating a post for the Paranoid & Delusional post of the year category.
<< <i>Could easily b weaponized small scale .... terrorists intentionally get it, do suicide bomb and infect a lot of people. Could also use blood from same as weapon. >>
How does one go about nominating a post for the Paranoid & Delusional post of the year category. >>
Perhaps you should think just a bit more prior to posting...
I was simply responding to the post above mine to note that it could be used by terrorists. It could. This is a factual statement. This is hardly a novel concept. In fact, this possibility has been mentioned countless times by many experts.
I'm sure that you're far better informed on these matters than is the U.S. Navy War College Professor, Professor Glees, and other experts cited in the article.
I guess that Fauci and the other experts cited in this Scientific American article are all just "paranoid and delusional": More expert commentary ... Surely you know better then they as well.
A simple Google search yields numerous stories with similar concerns noted by many different experts - all paranoid and delusional, of course.
I didn't say that it was likely, that I was worried about it, or anything of the sort - simply that it is possible. This is a possibility which has been widely discussed by many security and infectious disease experts - again, perhaps not at your level, but experts nonetheless.
How it's "Paranoid and Delusional" to simply reply to another post with information which has been widely covered/discussed by many major domestic and international media outlets escapes me. Of course, not all us can understand the thought processes of one as brilliant and all knowing as yourself.
Comments
<< <i>Ebola is a very serious problem and eradication of the latest outbreak should be a high priority. Given my scientific background I understand this issue much better than most, and there are significant differences between Ebola and the common flu. Ebola has the real potential to be much more of a concern than many appear to take it presently. >>
+1
Ebola can and will likely be a game changer in ways we have yet to even considered. Beyond killing large numbers of people, it has the ability to collapse economies, redistribute wealth and fundamentally change the way we live our lives.
Dont believe me read this --> In the Wake of the Plague: The Black Death and the World It Made, by Cantor
The Black Death changed the world in ways we cannot even imagine now. If Ebola gets out of Africa in a substantial way there will be little that anyone can do to control it.
Cheers, RickO
<< <i>
<< <i>Don't forget to vote for change next month.
Inappropriate post...yet somehow made less inappropriate by skillful use of the
It's a coin forum. >>
Sorry. I thought this was the Ebola forum.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed, to me:
I lift my lamp beside the golden door.”
Practice makes perfect & nobody is perfect. So, practice being nobody and be perfect !
<< <i>
<< <i>a highly aggressive influenza virus, like the Spanish Flu of about 100 years ago, is to me far, far scarier. Nobody really knows why it was such a bad flu that year. >>
Actually I believe the reason is known (or strongly suspected) now. It may not be widely known; for example it is missing from the wikipedia entry.
The Spanish Flu of 1918 had an unusually high fatality rate because many of its victims already had damaged lungs due to tuberculosis.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2740912/
http://www.hindawi.com/journals/cmmm/2012/124861/
And since the incidence of tuberculosis is much lower now, we shouldn't expect to see another seasonal flu epidemic with such a high mortality rate. >>
I've heard the TB theory before. I've also heard theories suggesting mustard gas was a predisposing factor, and that's why so many young men who fought in the war died.
Personally, I'm skeptical of this. TB has been around forever and influenza comes out every year. I am sure that underlying TB would be associated with a higher mortality, but that association is only that, an association.
Nowadays, due to modern medicine, people live longer lives. They live with chronic lung and heart disease. Many people take steroids and other immunosuppressive drugs for things like rheumatoid arthritis. People are living with organ transplants. People are surviving cancer and they are living full lives with HIV. While tuberculosis is no longer a major disease in the United States, there is a huge population of people with weakened immune systems. A hyper aggressive strain of influenza, especially if we do not have a vaccine for it, could be horribly devastating.
but I like the way it fits the epidemiology, like the unusual middle age group and the sex differential.
I agree that mustard gas exposure can't be a big factor, as it doesn't explain the worldwide fatalities.
As to why TB might have been a factor in 1918 but not in earlier flu outbreaks, that is an excellent critique.
I don't have the data on global historical TB incidence and flu pandemics which would be needed to investigate this.
The concept of global mobility (especially soldiers) being higher in 1918 than in previous pandemics seems appealing to me, though.
<< <i>explain to me how any of this will affect my coin buying and back up your statements with real world proof >>
I think that's what the OP is asking of you.
Though I don't speak for all, there are many of us working in health care that are very concerned. We were also concerned with AIDS early on- before it was better understood, SARS, H1N1 and more recently MERS. And in these cases, my worst fears weren't realized on this Continent at least. There is a great deal of nasty stuff out there! Ebola has potential and some epidemiogical projections are quite worrisome. The waffling on isolation protocols and levels by the CDC hasn't helped matters.
I could write all night here but I'll try and keep it short.
IMO, Ebola appears to be a very significant problem for wherever it gains a foothold.
There is a genuine air of near panic in the population at large. THIS is dangerous for reasons I'm not going to elaborate on here.
There were mistakes made in Texas and I can only hope that hospitals worldwide have learned from these and made modifications to their protocols.
I'd like to remind many that the patients that arrived in the US before the late Mr. Duncan- were treated successfully and without any transmittions to their health care providers.
It's my feeling thet not nearly enough is being done to restrict travel out of high risk areas!
And, I'm flying across the county tomorrow following a family reunion on Cape Cod with a new head cold!!!!
Feeling very sorry for the folks seated nearby on my flights!
I hope they don't collapse into panic when I sneeze and sniffle.....
Maybe they'll just throw a tarp over me and give me some peace and quiet :-)
I could use some rest.
If i'm not lynched and survive the trip, I've got some pretty educational follow-up's on grades posted for coins I've shared in the past!
And, some pretty cool nteresting newly discovered tidbits of my family history and coin related updates on my Grandfather's use of silver dollars during the rough times after the depression.
Happy, humble, honored and proud recipient of the “You Suck” award 10/22/2014
I could use some rest."
lmao...
<< <i>explain to me how any of this will affect my coin buying and back up your statements with real world proof >>
Stock market prices plunge, economies weaken further, deflation weakens buying power as people wait for loser prices, or are too strained to even spend, wages stagnate, health care systems could be severely strained.
These are just a few reasons...
Need more?
I'd rather not add fuel to the fire.
And so far, first paitients treated here were transported and treated without further spread of this virus!
Edited for clarification.
Happy, humble, honored and proud recipient of the “You Suck” award 10/22/2014
I think ebola will go away mostly on it own. In every past epidemic of it a bunch of people got it then it went away. I find it strange that something that spreads fast from one infected person can vanish after hundreds have it and those were poor countries without great healthcare unless there is something inherent to it that makes the epidemics end. I think there's some fact they don't understand that explains why it vanishes so completely and it doesn't wipe out those areas, it just vanishes from the human population. Then it comes back again someplace from bushmeat or bats and has a new epidemic. There must be something they missed that explains how the past epidemics ended.
<< <i>So to tell them to isolate themselves for 21 days >>
I read the Congo strain could incubate for up to 31 days.
"The influenza pandemic of 1918-1919 killed more people than the Great War, known today as World War I (WWI), at somewhere between 20 and 40 million people. It has been cited as the most devastating epidemic in recorded world history."
estimated 675,000 in the USA.
Krueger
<< <i>
<< <i>I read the Congo strain could incubate for up to 31 days. >>
IIRC, 97% show symptoms within 21 days. You don't have to quarantine 100% of individuals to stop an outbreak, you have to quarantine around 70%. At 70%, the R0 drops below one. So that 3% that doesn't show symptoms in the first 21 days are really negligible in the big picture unless you've got a relatively small outbreak. >>
At the macro level, that may be true. At the micro level, people may still want to be safer, for example 31 days.
After all, things that are negligible in the big picture have a way of hitting home if you or a loved one becomes affected.
What's your kid dressing up like this Halloween ?
Practice makes perfect & nobody is perfect. So, practice being nobody and be perfect !
In addition, if you're someone who thinks you were exposed to Ebola - would you rather try to make it to the US where they're going to treat you or quarantine you if you say you've been exposed - or would you rather stay home and try to fight it out in some town in your home country?
To me, that is the biggest risk to the US from Ebola.
It's a pun joke! and a fun joke!
I can do this all day.
Amat Colligendo Focum
Top 10 • FOR SALE
<< <i>the actual incubation period can be up to 42 days. 100% of all people will come down with it within that timeframe. 21 days is the 95% certainty. >>
That's good to know given that an increasing number of people exposed to ebola will be leaving quarantine after 21 days.
<< <i>
What's your kid dressing up like this Halloween ?
That's how everyone's showing up to the next ANA Convention.
<< <i>Eboli? >>
e-coli's second cousin
<< <i>
<< <i>Eboli? >>
e-coli's second cousin
That's when you have Ebola and E.coli at the same time. It's a crappy situation.
Practice makes perfect & nobody is perfect. So, practice being nobody and be perfect !
Now if it were to mutate into a form that can spread via airborne transmission (think Measles, the most contagious disease known)... it would be a stick you head up your arse and kiss it goodbye situation for most of humanity.
Also if it could be weaponized and used by terrorists, it would be dire.
But there is no indication that either of these scenario could or would ever play out. Filoviruses show no inclination to mutate in such a way.
<< <i>Could easily b weaponized small scale .... terrorists intentionally get it, do suicide bomb and infect a lot of people. Could also use blood from same as weapon. >>
How does one go about nominating a post for the Paranoid & Delusional post of the year category.
<< <i>
<< <i>Could easily b weaponized small scale .... terrorists intentionally get it, do suicide bomb and infect a lot of people. Could also use blood from same as weapon. >>
How does one go about nominating a post for the Paranoid & Delusional post of the year category. >>
Perhaps you should think just a bit more prior to posting...
I was simply responding to the post above mine to note that it could be used by terrorists. It could. This is a factual statement. This is hardly a novel concept. In fact, this possibility has been mentioned countless times by many experts.
For instance: One example of many...
I'm sure that you're far better informed on these matters than is the U.S. Navy War College Professor, Professor Glees, and other experts cited in the article.
I guess that Fauci and the other experts cited in this Scientific American article are all just "paranoid and delusional": More expert commentary ... Surely you know better then they as well.
A simple Google search yields numerous stories with similar concerns noted by many different experts - all paranoid and delusional, of course.
I didn't say that it was likely, that I was worried about it, or anything of the sort - simply that it is possible. This is a possibility which has been widely discussed by many security and infectious disease experts - again, perhaps not at your level, but experts nonetheless.
How it's "Paranoid and Delusional" to simply reply to another post with information which has been widely covered/discussed by many major domestic and international media outlets escapes me. Of course, not all us can understand the thought processes of one as brilliant and all knowing as yourself.