I think if you can counterfeit a coin and then counterfeit a slab complete with verifiable certification number, then counterfeiting a shiny sticker should be cake.
<< <i>I have seen one or two MS65 Saints that would fit JA's standards; full strike, luster, originality (undipped),no problems of any kind, and tremendous eye appeal not that many MS66s don't have all that; ultimately it is a $$ figure around $2500 for the stellar examples which is quite a premium for common dates. >>
You apparently haven't seen very many MS66's. I'd say that the majority of them do not have tremendous eye appeal and few problems of any kind. Most have a bit too much chatter or stacking friction to call them anything but a MS65+ or ++. Many of these were submitted in bulk submissions with min grades of MS66. Anything close has a good chance of getting the nod. My own experiences with buying MS66's from 2004-2009 was that the majority of them (3/4 or more) tended to be lower end coins not much different from high end MS65's. I rarely ran into a MS66 saint that I liked so much I'd be happy cracking it out. I only bought them for the slab insert knowing they were low end or next grade down based on 1990's standards. That's no surprise as I had the same problem with trying to find "all there" MS65 Bust halves in that same time period. Basically, if you wanted a coin like that, you had to buy a generic MS66 and pay the extra premium for it.
There's a reason why CAC MS66's have fetched premiums of $800-$1,000 over the past few years (though maybe not this year). And that reason is that so few of them meet all the requirements mentioned in the quote above. You probably have to go to a generic MS67 to meet those criteria. Most MS66's that you see on the bourse floors are lower end coins or product. The really nice ones have been cherried over the years and are either put away or now appear in generic MS67 holders. The MS65 from 1989 that fetched $4,000 is roughly the same coin today in a MS66 holder fetching $2,800-$4,000. Imagine the storm that would kick up if 6% of MS65 Morgans or MS65 seated quarters could meet sticker standards. The collectors would go ape nuts. Yet this is what has happened with MS65-67 Saints and yet everyone has sort of rolled with it. You can't compare stickering standards and pricing of a MS65 Morgan or MS65 Iowa to MS65 or better Saints. Apples vs. Oranges. CAC has stickered over 200 MS68 Morgans or the equivalent of 43% of the 466 PCGS MS68 Morgans. That's a far cry from the 3% rate for MS65-67 Saints mentioned earlier. A 14-1 factor. That's a lot more than just "statistical" error.
<< <i>I haven't seen many 66 or higher Saints, to me at that price level and higher on common date Saints whether buying or selling them they are not a winning proposition. I bought a raw Saint that graded 66, the dealer mistook the die crack for a grade sensitive issue....Dale Larson bought it and made some comment about it probably not having a great enough strike for a 67, otherwise it was all there. That just goes to show that above 64 or 65 many dealers cannot accurately guess a likely grade. >>
Just because most dealers and collectors can't grade close to TPG standards doesn't invalidate those standards or the prices that they fetch. It's all relative. A MS66 Saint at $2500 is selling for 2.1X its intrinsic metal value. A circ wheat cent sells for 3X its intrinsic metal value. An MS64 Morgan dollar sells for 5X intrinsic silver value. Value is all relative. Legend consistently is on the lookout for CAC MS66 saints. They prefer those to MS65 or lower grades. Don't ask me why. They have customers for those even if you or I can't see the "value" that others might. A strong CAC MS66 at say $4,000 is roughly the equivalent of a generic MS67 that brings $7,000. I know which coin I'd rather buy. If someone wants a nearly unimprovable killer saint for type and doesn't want to spend $7,000, then a nice 66 fits the bill...where a much more common MS65 might not be good enough. I personally don't see the value in generic MS66's though as to me they look like nice MS65's. You can still go out there and find unstickered 65's and even 66's and for <$50 postage and sticker fee you can gain $400-$800. I don't mind 10-1 risk to reward ratios when I get to pick the coin. CAC is a little easier on MS65 $20 Libs (WM) with an 8.5% comparable sticker rate vs. PCGS pop. Finding the best coin by far out of 12 available ones for a 35% premium isn't that crazy when the next grade up is a 100-200% premium. In a way, generic pricing has relegated many coins of the same coin having varying quality to the same general price. It never should have been so....but here we are today.
Strike is far less an issue on MS67 Saints than luster, surfaces, orig skin, and marks. Most saints are well enough struck to receive a MS67 grade when they came off the dies. If you look at the strikes of the 1908 NM's they are far inferior to the Philly dates of 1923-1928.....yet MS67's abound. Most collectors and dealers trying to grade gem saints don't give enough credit to the luster, skin, and overall look and micro manage the strike and contact marks. I would readily agree that the majority of coin shop dealers have difficulty grading raw MS64-67 saints to within 1/3 to 1/2 a point....the level that a very competent grader should be at. It's not uncommon to find some shops who routinely are 1-2 pts off on the grade.
I would take a CAC PCGS MS65 over a non-CAC PCGS MS66. So many Saints are in outstanding condition and the grade differences are difficult to discern, with this coin I give the nod to CAC.
Let's make this simple.... Grading is (and always has been) an opinion.... the best opinions are those backed by experience and/or training, but an opinion just the same. Now, getting multiple experienced/trained opinions that agree, provides more confidence in the opinion. There will always be disagreements due to opinionated perception and visual discernment..... Subjective opinions is what collectors/dealers pay for - oh, also a little bit of plastic and paper and shipping - but the opinion is the bulk of the cost. So, labels, stickers and whatever is still to come, are expensive - however, the price paid is up to the buyer. Cheers, RickO
Comments
<< <i>I have seen one or two MS65 Saints that would fit JA's standards; full strike, luster, originality (undipped),no problems of any kind, and tremendous eye appeal not that many MS66s don't have all that; ultimately it is a $$ figure around $2500 for the stellar examples which is quite a premium for common dates. >>
You apparently haven't seen very many MS66's. I'd say that the majority of them do not have tremendous eye appeal and few problems of any kind. Most have a bit too much chatter or stacking friction to call them anything but a MS65+ or ++. Many of these were submitted in bulk submissions with min grades of MS66. Anything close has a good chance of getting the nod. My own experiences with buying MS66's from 2004-2009 was that the majority of them (3/4 or more) tended to be lower end coins not much different from high end MS65's. I rarely ran into a MS66 saint that I liked so much I'd be happy cracking it out. I only bought them for the slab insert knowing they were low end or next grade down based on 1990's standards. That's no surprise as I had the same problem with trying to find "all there" MS65 Bust halves in that same time period. Basically, if you wanted a coin like that, you had to buy a generic MS66 and pay the extra premium for it.
There's a reason why CAC MS66's have fetched premiums of $800-$1,000 over the past few years (though maybe not this year). And that reason is that so few of them meet all the requirements mentioned in the quote above. You probably have to go to a generic MS67 to meet those criteria. Most MS66's that you see on the bourse floors are lower end coins or product. The really nice ones have been cherried over the years and are either put away or now appear in generic MS67 holders. The MS65 from 1989 that fetched $4,000 is roughly the same coin today in a MS66 holder fetching $2,800-$4,000. Imagine the storm that would kick up if 6% of MS65 Morgans or MS65 seated quarters could meet sticker standards. The collectors would go ape nuts. Yet this is what has happened with MS65-67 Saints and yet everyone has sort of rolled with it. You can't compare stickering standards and pricing of a MS65 Morgan or MS65 Iowa to MS65 or better Saints. Apples vs. Oranges. CAC has stickered over 200 MS68 Morgans or the equivalent of 43% of the 466 PCGS MS68 Morgans. That's a far cry from the 3% rate for MS65-67 Saints mentioned earlier. A 14-1 factor. That's a lot more than just "statistical" error.
<< <i>I haven't seen many 66 or higher Saints, to me at that price level and higher on common date Saints whether buying or selling them they are not a winning proposition. I bought a raw Saint that graded 66, the dealer mistook the die crack for a grade sensitive issue....Dale Larson bought it and made some comment about it probably not having a great enough strike for a 67, otherwise it was all there. That just goes to show that above 64 or 65 many dealers cannot accurately guess a likely grade. >>
Just because most dealers and collectors can't grade close to TPG standards doesn't invalidate those standards or the prices that they fetch. It's all relative. A MS66 Saint at $2500 is selling for 2.1X its intrinsic metal value. A circ wheat cent sells for 3X its intrinsic metal value. An MS64 Morgan dollar sells for 5X intrinsic silver value. Value is all relative. Legend consistently is on the lookout for CAC MS66 saints. They prefer those to MS65 or lower grades. Don't ask me why. They have customers for those even if you or I can't see the "value" that others might. A strong CAC MS66 at say $4,000 is roughly the equivalent of a generic MS67 that brings $7,000. I know which coin I'd rather buy. If someone wants a nearly unimprovable killer saint for type and doesn't want to spend $7,000, then a nice 66 fits the bill...where a much more common MS65 might not be good enough. I personally don't see the value in generic MS66's though as to me they look like nice MS65's. You can still go out there and find unstickered 65's and even 66's and for <$50 postage and sticker fee you can gain $400-$800. I don't mind 10-1 risk to reward ratios when I get to pick the coin. CAC is a little easier on MS65 $20 Libs (WM) with an 8.5% comparable sticker rate vs. PCGS pop. Finding the best coin by far out of 12 available ones for a 35% premium isn't that crazy when the next grade up is a 100-200% premium. In a way, generic pricing has relegated many coins of the same coin having varying quality to the same general price. It never should have been so....but here we are today.
Strike is far less an issue on MS67 Saints than luster, surfaces, orig skin, and marks. Most saints are well enough struck to receive a MS67 grade when they came off the dies. If you look at the strikes of the 1908 NM's they are far inferior to the Philly dates of 1923-1928.....yet MS67's abound. Most collectors and dealers trying to grade gem saints don't give enough credit to the luster, skin, and overall look and micro manage the strike and contact marks. I would readily agree that the majority of coin shop dealers have difficulty grading raw MS64-67 saints to within 1/3 to 1/2 a point....the level that a very competent grader should be at. It's not uncommon to find some shops who routinely are 1-2 pts off on the grade.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
in outstanding condition and the grade differences are difficult to discern, with this coin
I give the nod to CAC.