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MS65 CAC Vs. MS66 Saints
Greeniejr
Posts: 1,321 ✭✭✭
Call me crazy but does anyone else see a problem with the bid on MS65 CAC Saints being higher than for a non-CAC MS66. Given there are issues with problem coins and overgraded stuff but there are plenty of low end MS66 coins that I would much prefer to MS65 CAC coins. IMO John is harshest on gold so that many B level Saints do not get stickered for grade as opposed to originality. This seems a bit out of whack. Truth be told even a C level (though original) MS66 is typically as nice or nicer than an A level MS65
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<< <i>there are plenty of low end MS66 coins that I would much prefer to MS65 CAC coins. >>
Buy them then.
So what if CAC has a different opinion?
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Buy them then.
So what if CAC has a different opinion? >>
This.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
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<< <i>Buy the coin and not the holder. >>
and then buy the holder.
<< <i>Much of the CAC premium is for added protection against counterfeits. Grade verification is secondary in my opinion. >>
That is absurd, IMO.
<< <i>Truth be told even a C level (though original) MS66 is typically as nice or nicer than an A level MS65 >>
The problem is that, due to changing standards over time (especially ultra-loose 2003-2007), there are more than a handful of 65B coins currently in 66 holders.
A decent non-CAC 66 can bring more than a 65 CAC. The bids are reflecting the fact that many non-CAC 66s are not all that decent for the grade.
Relative to this subject I posted this.
There are some B&M's in our town that are hurting for cash because of precious metals prices.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
“I may not believe in myself but I believe in what I’m doing” ~Jimmy Page~
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https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
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<< <i>Much of the CAC premium is for added protection against counterfeits. Grade verification is secondary in my opinion. >>
That is absurd, IMO. >>
On what basis? CAC premiums took off the same time fake slabs hit the market. I do not discount the CAC grade approval value, but when a beaned 65 Saint brings a higher price than a 66, we are now saying that PCGS has overgraded by a full point or better. That may happen on occasion but certainly is not the norm.
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<< <i>Much of the CAC premium is for added protection against counterfeits. Grade verification is secondary in my opinion. >>
That is absurd, IMO. >>
On what basis? CAC premiums took off the same time fake slabs hit the market. I do not discount the CAC grade approval value, but when a beaned 65 Saint brings a higher price than a 66, we are now saying that PCGS has overgraded by a full point or better. That may happen on occasion but certainly is not the norm. >>
How many counterfeit PCGS Saints have you seen?
Also, I find Saints to just be very tricky to grade around the Gem level as there are so many variations in surface texture, luster, strike, etc. from year to year. It's not like grading and stickering Gem Morgan Dollars.
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<< <i>Much of the CAC premium is for added protection against counterfeits. Grade verification is secondary in my opinion. >>
That is absurd, IMO. >>
On what basis? CAC premiums took off the same time fake slabs hit the market. I do not discount the CAC grade approval value, but when a beaned 65 Saint brings a higher price than a 66, we are now saying that PCGS has overgraded by a full point or better. That may happen on occasion but certainly is not the norm. >>
How many counterfeit PCGS Saints have you seen? >>
None, but 2 years ago I bought a real $20 Lib on Ebay in a fake NGC holder. Grade was wrong and it was cleaned. Rick Montgomery of NGC confirmed my discovery (coin was returned to seller as per Ebay's instructions).
Folks have serious concerns today about buying expensive coins, particularly on Ebay. CAC provides a confirmation that the coin is legit. I suspect that the beans can be faked as well, but it is one more obstacle to the theives.
Plus, there are plenty of messed with coins in holders that wouldn't CAC at any grade.
Saints are definitely a series to buy the coin and not the holder.
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<< <i>when a beaned 65 Saint brings a higher price than a 66, we are now saying that PCGS has overgraded by a full point or better. That may happen on occasion but certainly is not the norm. >>
Over the course of 25 years of TPG grading, there are many more mistakes, doctored coins, and victims of gradeflation extant than you apparently believe.
"Maxed out" coins are never removed from their holders, and are cumulative in the marketplace over time.
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<< <i>when a beaned 65 Saint brings a higher price than a 66, we are now saying that PCGS has overgraded by a full point or better. That may happen on occasion but certainly is not the norm. >>
Over the course of 25 years of TPG grading, there are many more mistakes, doctored coins, and victims of gradeflation extant than you apparently believe.
"Maxed out" coins are never removed from their holders, and are cumulative in the marketplace over time. >>
So you think that what, 20 or 30% of PCGS graded Saints are no better than an MS65 and maybe a lower grade (or no grade). I don't buy that.
MS66 bid is Sight Seen by HA at 2360
Similar variance to when I started the thread 9 months ago
As we know a grade is just an opinion. As we know a sticker is just an opinion. And the market buys and sells on the overall perceptions of the those opinions. It appears currently the market believes that a stickered 65 saint is consistently a nicer coin than an unstickered 66. You can find thousands of coins to justify this belief and you can find thousands of coins to invalidate this belief. But if the market is paying more for stickered 65s vs 66 the market currently believes the CAC 65 is a better coin.
No different than what the market does with PCGS vs NGC. I know this is tough for the Kool-Aid gang to stomach but currently, for at least Saints, the market has more faith in JA's opinion than PCGS's opinion. But markets are very fickle and this could change tomorrow.
Because all of this is made of perception, it is a great advantage to dealers and collectors who know how to evaluate the coin and not the holder. Those who buy holders are at a true disadvantage in this TPG dominated coin market.
Joseph J. Singleton - First Superintendent of the U.S. Branch Mint in Dahlonega Georgia
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<< <i>Generic saints can be of questionable quality >>
But are they generally overgraded by a point or more, or only occasionally?
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<< <i>Generic saints can be of questionable quality >>
But are they generally overgraded by a point or only occasionally? >>
Does it matter? Even if only occasionally, you have to plan accordingly when you place a sight unseen bid...
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<< <i>Generic saints can be of questionable quality >>
But are they generally overgraded by a point or only occasionally? >>
Does it matter? Even if only occasionally, you have to plan accordingly when you place a sight unseen bid... >>
I have sold a number of generic Saints over the years and have not seen a truly over graded generic 66. Never had one sell for under MS65 money. If I were putting out sight unseen bids, my 65 CAC price would be lower than 66 without the beanie. If an occasional dog arrives, so be it.
It gets back to my earlier point that the market is paying for a second opinion that the coin is genuine, not just that the grade is correct.
<< <i> Much of the CAC premium is for added protection against counterfeits...
Grade verification is secondary in my opinion...
It gets back to my earlier point that the market is paying for a second opinion that the coin is genuine, not just that the grade is correct. >>
The market already has a high degree of confidence in the authenticity of PCGS/NGC $20's. That is what RYK is saying.
I don't believe that CACs mission is to weed out counterfeit coins. (That being said, JA & crew are likely as proficient at counterfeit detection as any TPG grader.)
Referencing only PCGC coins
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>How about trying to pick out a nice 66 for 66 money. Just saying. Buy the coin not the sticker. >>
That's how I feel too
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<< <i> Much of the CAC premium is for added protection against counterfeits...
Grade verification is secondary in my opinion...
It gets back to my earlier point that the market is paying for a second opinion that the coin is genuine, not just that the grade is correct. >>
The market already has a high degree of confidence in the authenticity of PCGS/NGC $20's. That is what RYK is saying.
I don't believe that CACs mission is to weed out counterfeit coins. (That being said, JA & crew are likely as proficient at counterfeit detection as any TPG grader.) >>
I agree mission was not to weed out fakes, but the market has changed dramatically since CAC's inception. The premium is buyer driven not grader driven and collectors fear counterfeits and appreciate the extra set of eyes. I don't remember an Ebay fake being pointed out on these boards that has had a CAC sticker on it.....at least not yet.
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<< <i>How about trying to pick out a nice 66 for 66 money. Just saying. Buy the coin not the sticker. >>
That's how I feel too
Makes sense to me too.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
<< <i>The amount of fake Saints getting by PCGS and NGC must be very small (well under 1%...probably under 0.1%). >>
Problem is, fake PCGS slabs are now infiltrating the market. As a recent thread comparing two Lincoln Cents showed, the fakes are getting much tougher to detect. A CAC sticker gives a buyer extra assurance that the coin is genuine. I have not yet seen a case of a bogus CAC sticker yet. Of course anything can be faked.
I have no doubt that half the CAC market premium is for that purpose.
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<< <i>The amount of fake Saints getting by PCGS and NGC must be very small (well under 1%...probably under 0.1%). >>
Problem is, fake PCGS slabs are now infiltrating the market. As a recent thread comparing two Lincoln Cents showed, the fakes are getting much tougher to detect. A CAC sticker gives a buyer extra assurance that the coin is genuine. I have not yet seen a case of a bogus CAC sticker yet. Of course anything can be faked.
I have no doubt that half the CAC market premium is for that purpose. >>
I do not share your perception at all. CAC is about proper grading and lack of doctoring.
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<< <i>The amount of fake Saints getting by PCGS and NGC must be very small (well under 1%...probably under 0.1%). >>
Problem is, fake PCGS slabs are now infiltrating the market. As a recent thread comparing two Lincoln Cents showed, the fakes are getting much tougher to detect. A CAC sticker gives a buyer extra assurance that the coin is genuine. I have not yet seen a case of a bogus CAC sticker yet. Of course anything can be faked.
I have no doubt that half the CAC market premium is for that purpose. >>
I do not share your perception at all. CAC is about proper grading and lack of doctoring. >>
Fake slab is the ultimate doctoring IMO.
The amount of chatter on graded 66 Saints makes me wonder. I have much better Saints housed in Old Green 65 holders than I have seen in 66 holders in recent years.
IMO CAC stickers are way too abundant in the marketplace. Great idea, to designate PQ, but are like water these days.
<< <i> I have no doubt that half the CAC market premium is for that purpose. >>
Well, that may come to pass in the near future but I do not think the market is yet valuing CAC in this manner more than 10% of the total premium.
Currently, the market is valuing CAC add ons due to
(1) PVC free
(2) solid for the grade
(3) originality
(4) an added buyer (CAC) willingness to buy such coin without having to see it again
(5) positive visual image and reputation - the green sticker
(6) an extra layer of examination for authenticity (currently less than 10% of entire premium but possibly growing)
But in checking a blue sheet that shows data on CAC and non CAC coins I can see how some may believe this. If you want to play the bean game and pay a huge premium on a CAC coin its your hobby / your money. But nada for me.
I would prefer a nice MS63 or MS64 Saint I picked out which would be closer to melt; generic Saints are common coins so if one is priced above CDN Ask, too much for me to have any interest. I would rather buy nice 69-70 AGE, AGB.
I also like Modern World Gold.
I will not over pay for a coin (based on my evaluation of what I can sell it for) because it has a sticker nor buy a coin I find unattractive because it has a sticker. MS 65 Saints are big ticket coins, you need to find someone who has the money to buy one first and also wants to spend that money on numismatic coins vs USM products or bullion. Usually, there are much more big ticket coins in dealers cases than people walking in the door of a show who could afford them lol.
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<< <i>The amount of fake Saints getting by PCGS and NGC must be very small (well under 1%...probably under 0.1%). >>
Problem is, fake PCGS slabs are now infiltrating the market. As a recent thread comparing two Lincoln Cents showed, the fakes are getting much tougher to detect. A CAC sticker gives a buyer extra assurance that the coin is genuine. I have not yet seen a case of a bogus CAC sticker yet. Of course anything can be faked.
I have no doubt that half the CAC market premium is for that purpose. >>
I don't agree. A hefty CAC premium in MS65 Saints first showed up in 2009-2011 well before fake slabs starting to be more common. A couple hundred bucks or so premium Dec 2008 when gold was still around $900 per ounce. I never even heard of anyone being concerned about saints in fake slabs back then. I was aware of a CAC submission at that time of >100 MS65 PCGS/MS65 Saints. Approximately 5% of them stickered. There's not doubt the premium is due to JA's very strict standards....bringing them closer to 1988 standards vs. 2008 standards. If only 5-10% of MS65 saints are making it, that effectively makes them better than a lot of generic 66's.
Fake slabs may be the ultimate doctoring for those who cannot grade or authenticate a fairly simple MS65 saint. It's not any harder than determining an authentic MS65 1880-s Morgan dollar. Been dealing with MS65 saints since 2002 and have yet to run into one in a fake slab....nor do I know any dealer in my area that has. It must be an Ebay thing or something. I generally don't buy anything off Ebay as even a MS65 saint should be seen in hand. And if there is a concern for a fake slab that passes muster to the unitiated. They would likely have no better luck identifying a counterfeit CAC sticker. If someone really wants to cover all bases to catch a newbie then photograph MS65 CAC Saint "inserts" at a coin show. How did MS65 Saints trade in the pre-slab/sticker era? Somehow, they did it.
I did some simple research on the approx 5,000 MS65 CAC saints. That's not a big number when there are over 80,000 graded at PCGS. I'm not including a similar or larger number from NGC since probably most Saints have been resubmitted at least once. That's a 6% sticker rate so far. $10 MILL bucks buys all the common date, stickered MS65 Saints in existence. That's not much money in a multi-billion dollar coin market. For comparison I checked the MS65 1908 NM stickered saints since so many MS66's and MS67's come from this hoard. CAC's sticker rate compared to the PCGS pops for this date is only 3% in each of the grades from 65-67. Of 839 MS67 1908's (>90% from Wells Fargo hoard) CAC has stickered 26 for the date. Considering there's a $4,000-$5,000 or larger premium to bump from generic MS67 to a stickered MS67 you would think nearly EVERY owner of such a coin would have tried them by now....assuming they technically knew that their coins were not generic 67's. But still, only a 3% sticker rate so far (not including NGC MS67's). With only 1 out of 30 gem 1908 NM saints currently getting stickered one can figure out pretty quick why a CAC premium exists. One could easily say these are not only + coins for the grade (whether officially assigned or not by the TPGS) but 65++ or 65+++. I'm not saying I'm a buyer of a CAC MS65 vs. a generic 66 as it depends on the individual coins and prices. If the prices were the same and the coins were equivalent or nearly so, I'd take the generic 66. I also don't agree with all the CAC MS65's I've seen though I've been impressed with about 70-80% of them. We all have our individual preferences.
<< <i>TextI don't agree. A hefty CAC premium in MS65 Saints first showed up in 2009-2011 well before fake slabs starting to be more common. A couple hundred bucks or so premium Dec 2008 when gold was still around $900 per ounce. I never even heard of anyone being concerned about saints in fake slabs back then. I was aware of a CAC submission at that time of >100 MS65 PCGS/MS65 Saints. Approximately 5% of them stickered. There's not doubt the premium is due to JA's very strict standards....bringing them closer to 1988 standards vs. 2008 standards. >>
I can back roadrunner's comment here as I was right in CAC's office with roadrunner when all of this was happening and discussed with JA in December 2008.
I like your thinking. There are a lot of men who can see what they're buying and it's THEIR (our) money, being spent. So , I'm in agreement with you when it comes to "how much" one is willing to pay for the bean. Particularly when it comes to the upper echelon of Saints. We are talking the cream of the crop.
CAC has their own "support system" for pricing, so if they (CAC'd coins) come to me or you, or any dealer/collector who doesn't care about the plastic/ sticker, as much as his own money, we get to this point of MICRO managing our own budget, as it were.
That's not to say I wouldn't pay up in competitive bidding on any particular coin if I needed it for a client or for myself (as a collector), but a collector/ dealer doesn't HAVE TO HAVE it at all costs.
So, I respect your thinking even as much as I like the "support system" inside the numismatic industry.
Joe